Nomograms Combining Ultrasonic Features With Clinical and Pathological Features for Estimation of Delphian Lymph Node Metastasis Risk in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Meta-analysis of the effect and clinical significance of Delphian lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer

Objective

To investigate the effect and clinical significance of Delphian lymph nodes (DLN) on the factors influencing papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) to provide individualized guidance for the surgical treatment of thyroid cancer.

Methods

Relevant studies from PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, Embase, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were searched until February 13, 2023. Stringent selection parameters were used to obtain included data and homogeneous articles. Analyses were performed using Revman 5.4 and SPSS software. A P-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Five studies were finally included in this study. The results revealed a higher risk of DLN metastasis (DLNM) in patients with tumor size >1cm, multifocality, and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) of the thyroid. The risk of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) was 11.25 times higher in DLN-positive patients with PTC than in DLN-negative (OR = 11.25, 95% CI: 8.64-14.64, P < 0.05) patients. The risk of LLNM was 5.57 times higher in DLN-positive patients with PTC than in DLN-negative (OR = 5.57, 95% CI: 4.57-6.78, P < 0.001) patients. The risk of postoperative recurrence in DLN-positive patients with PTC was 3.49 times higher (OR = 3.49, 95% CI: 1.91-6.38, P < 0.001) than in DLN-negative patients with PTC.

Conclusion

Patients with tumor size >1 cm in diameter, multifocality, and ETE have an increased risk for DLN development. DLN-positive patients with central and lateral cervical lymph node metastasis and postoperative recurrence are at higher risk than DLN-negative patients.

Accuracy of papillary thyroid cancer prognostic nomograms: a systematic review

Objective

Current staging and risk-stratification systems for predicting survival or recurrence of patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma may be ineffective at predicting outcomes in individual patients. In recent years, nomograms have been proposed as an alternative to conventional systems for predicting personalized clinical outcomes. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the predictive performance of available nomograms for thyroid cancer patients.

Design and methods

PROSPERO registration (CRD42022327028). A systematic search was conducted without time and language restrictions. PICOT questions: population, patients with papillary thyroid cancer; comparator prognostic factor, single-arm studies; outcomes, overall survival, disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival, recurrence, central lymph node metastases, or lateral lymph node metastases; timing, all periods; setting, hospital setting. Risk of bias was assessed through PROBAST tool.

Results

Eighteen studies with a total of 20 prognostic models were included in the systematic review (90,969 papillary thyroid carcinoma patients). Fourteen models were at high risk of bias and four were at unclear risk of bias. The greatest concerns arose in the analysis domain. The accuracy of nomograms for overall survival was assessed in only one study and appeared limited (0.77, 95% CI: 0.75-0.79). The accuracy of nomograms for disease-free survival ranged from 0.65 (95% CI: 0.55-0.75) to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91-0.95). The C-index for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis ranged from 0.72 to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.97). For central lymph node metastasis, the C-index of externally validated studies ranged from 0.706 (95% CI: 0.685-0.727) to 0.923 (95% CI: 0.893-0.946).

Conclusions

Our work highlights the extremely high heterogeneity among nomograms and the critical lack of external validation studies that limit the applicability of nomograms in clinical practice. Further studies ideally using commonly adopted risk factors as the backbone to develop nomograms are required.

Significance statement

Nomograms may be appropriate tools to plan treatments and predict personalized clinical outcomes in patients with papillary thyroid cancer. However, the nomograms developed to date are very heterogeneous, and their results seem to be closely related to the specific samples studied to generate the same nomograms. The lack of rigorous external validation procedures and the use of risk factors that sometimes appear to be far from those commonly used in clinical practice, as well as the great heterogeneity of the risk factors considered, limit the ability of nomograms to predict patient outcomes and thus their current introduction in clinical practice.

Prelaryngeal and/or pretracheal lymph node metastasis could help to identify papillary thyroid carcinoma with intermediate risk from unilateral lobe cT1-2N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma

Objective

The study aims to explore the possibility of prelaryngeal and/or pretracheal lymph node metastasis in identifying papillary thyroid carcinoma with more than 5 metastatic central lymph nodes from unilateral lobe cT1-2N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients who underwent the initial thyroid surgery for unilateral lobe cT1-2N0 PTC in a single tertiary center between July 2018 to December 2022. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for unilateral lobe cT1-2N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma with more than 5 metastatic central lymph nodes.

Results

A total of 737 patients were included in the study and 399 patients were confirmed to suffer from occult central lymph node metastasis. The larger size of the largest diameter of tumor (> 1cm; OR = 3.3, 95%CI 1.6 - 6.83; p = 0.001), pretracheal lymph node metastasis (OR = 5.91, 95%CI 2.73 - 12.77; p < 0.001), prelaryngeal lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.74, 95%CI 1.73 - 8.1; p = 0.001), ipsilateral paratracheal lymph node metastasis (OR = 12.22, 95%CI 3.43 - 43.48; p < 0.001), and contralateral paratracheal lymph node metastasis (OR = 7.68, 95%CI 3.86 - 15.3; p < 0.001) were confirmed to be risk factors for unilateral lobe cT1-2N0 PTC with more than 5 metastatic central lymph nodes. When more than two metastatic prelaryngeal and/or pretracheal lymph nodes occurred, the incidence of more than 5 metastatic central lymph nodes was 71.2%.

Conclusion

Prelaryngeal and/or pretracheal lymph node metastasis could help to identify papillary thyroid carcinoma with more than 5 metastatic central lymph nodes from unilateral lobe cT1-2N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma. When more than two metastatic pretracheal and/or prelaryngeal lymph nodes occurred, total thyroidectomy and ipsilateral central lymph node dissection should be performed and contralateral paratracheal lymph node dissection might be also necessary.

Nomogram for preoperative estimation risk of cervical lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma

Objectives

Cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is common in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), but how to manage cervical lymph node involvement of clinically negative MTC is still controversial. This study evaluated the preoperative features and developed an ultrasound (US)-based nomogram to preoperatively predict the CLNM of MTC.

Materials and methods

A total of 74 patients with histologically confirmed MTC were included in this retrospective study and assigned to the CLNM-positive group and CLNM-negative group based on the pathology. The associations between CLNM and preoperative clinical and sonographic characteristics (size, location, solid component, shape, margin, echogenicity, calcification, and extracapsular invasion of the tumor) were evaluated by the use of univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. A nomogram to predict the risk of the CLNM of MTC was built and assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

Results

The nomogram was based on three factors (tumor margin, US-reported suspicious lymph node, and extracapsular invasion US features) and exhibited good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.919 (95% CI, 0.856-0.932). The calibration curves of the nomogram displayed a good agreement between the probability as predicted by the nomogram and the actual CLNM incidence.

Conclusions

We constructed and validated a US-based nomogram to predict the risk of CLNM in MTC patients, which can be easily evaluated before surgery. This model is helpful for clinical decision-making.

Relationship between pretracheal and/or prelaryngeal lymph node metastasis and paratracheal and lateral lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid carcinoma: A meta-analysis

Objective

We conducted a meta-analysis to study the relationship between pretracheal and/or prelaryngeal lymph node metastasis and paratracheal and lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Method

A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library electronic databases for studies published up to February 2022. The reference lists of retrieved articles were also reviewed. Two authors independently assessed the methodological quality and extracted the data. A random-effects model was used to calculate the overall pooled relative risk. Publication bias in these studies was evaluated using Egger’s test and Begg’s test.

Results

Twenty-five independent studies involving 10,525 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk for ipsilateral and contralateral paratracheal lymph node metastasis was 3.01 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.66, 5.45) and 5.68 (95% CI: 2.50, 12.88), respectively, in patients with pretracheal lymph node metastasis. Among patients with prelaryngeal lymph node metastasis, the pooled relative risk for ipsilateral paratracheal and/or pretracheal contralateral paratracheal, and lateral lymph node metastasis was 2.02 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.14), 2.22 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.67), and 3.85 (95% CI: 2.89, 5.14), respectively.

Conclusion

Pretracheal lymph node metastasis and prelaryngeal lymph node metastasis were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of both ipsilateral lymph node metastasis and contralateral paratracheal lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma. Prelaryngeal lymph node metastasis was positively correlated with the incidence of lateral lymph node metastasis.