I Can See Clearly Now: Episodic Future Thinking and Imaginability in Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk Events

Drivers of behaviors: How do city pilots shape residential energy-related emissions through perceptions?

Residential energy consumption, as a major source of emissions in cities, is also a policy priority for the construction of low-carbon cities. The occurrence of residential energy saving and emissions mitigation behaviors is closely related to low-carbon perceptions. Against this background, cities make efforts to shape residential low-carbon perceptions. In order to investigate residential energy consumption and carbon emissions, this study takes low-carbon city pilots as the policy context and establishes the difference-in-difference model on Chinese prefecture-level cities. Theory of planned behavior is utilized to analyze the influence mechanism of residential low-carbon perceptions. Results indicated that (1) low-carbon city pilots can decrease residential energy-related emissions and pass a variety of robustness tests. Multiple pilot eligibility and policy lag would reinforce policy effects. (2) Mechanism analysis shows that low-carbon city pilots can strengthen residential behavioral attitudes, establish subjective norms, and adjust perceived behavioral control. All three mechanisms together shape residential low-carbon perceptions, which consequently promote energy-related emissions mitigation behaviors. (3) Due to differences in geographic location and city size, there is heterogeneity for the policy effects of low-carbon city pilots. For the future research, it is necessary to expand the scope of residential energy-related emissions, find out the potential influencing factors, and track the policy effects in long-term.

Human Exceptionalist Thinking about Climate Change

Although global climate change poses a real and looming threat to both human societies and the natural world, large gaps in understanding exist between the general public and the scientific community. One factor contributing to such gaps could be the use of intuitive thinking to understand complex phenomena. In two studies, we explore climate change understanding and engagement through the lens of an intuitive pattern of thinking, human exceptionalism, which refers to the tendency to infer that humans are exceptional to, and separable from, the rest of the natural world. In both studies, undergraduates thought about global climate change in human exceptionalist ways that were orthogonal to accuracy—for example, they correctly think that humans uniquely contribute to climate change compared to other organisms, but incorrectly think that humans will be uniquely immune to the effects of global climate change. Moreover, human exceptionalist thinking has real-world consequences; it was negatively associated with eco-friendly attitudes and behaviors, and negatively predicted individuals’ attribution of damage from recent hurricanes (i.e., hurricanes Michael and Florence) to global climate change. Finally, we demonstrated that increasing the salience of connections between humans and global climate change reduced human exceptionalism. Findings suggest that intuitive thinking in general, and human exceptionalism in particular, make important contributions to how we understand and reason about global climate change, and may be promising targets for interventions aimed at increasing pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors.

Trivially informative semantic context inflates people's confidence they can perform a highly complex skill

Some research suggests people are overconfident because of personality characteristics, lack of insight, or because overconfidence is beneficial in its own right. But other research fits with the possibility that fluent experience in the moment can rapidly drive overconfidence. For example, fluency can push people to become overconfident in their ability to throw a dart, know how rainbows form or predict the future value of a commodity. But surely there are limits to overconfidence. That is, even in the face of fluency manipulations known to increase feelings of confidence, reasonable people would reject the thought that they, for example, might be able to land a plane in an emergency. To address this question, we conducted two experiments comprising a total of 780 people. We asked some people (but not others) to watch a trivially informative video of a pilot landing a plane before they rated their confidence in their own ability to land a plane. We found watching the video inflated people's confidence that they could land a plane. Our findings extend prior work by suggesting that increased semantic context creates illusions not just of prior experience or understanding-but also of the ability to actually do something implausible.

Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception

The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.

Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception

The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.

Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception

The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.

COVID-19 pandemic lessons to facilitate future engagement in the global climate crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in January 2020. As of November 2020, over 54 million cases and over 1 million deaths have been reported globally. The sudden coronavirus global pandemic has also pointed to the importance of tackling the global climate crisis even more urgently. This article discusses six lessons drawn from the COVID-19 pandemic that can inform and facilitate greater future engagement in the global climate crisis. These lessons were identified through monitoring and analyzing media coverage of COVID-19 related events during the initial onset of COVID-19 in late January 2020 to June 30, 2020. The key lessons included the potentiality of reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse emissions, the significance of responding late, a case for strong sustainability, the limits of rugged individualism, a (mis)trust in science, and the possibility of large-scale change. The insights put forward point to the fact that, like the COVID-19 pandemic, people need to continue to attach their health to expectations of government action in the context of the global climate crisis.