Air Quality Response Modeling for Decision Support

A case study of surface ozone source contributions in the Seoul metropolitan area using the adjoint of CMAQ

To quantitatively investigate the transboundary behaviors and source attributions of ozone (O3) and its precursor species over East Asia, we utilize the adjoint technique in the CMAQ modeling system (the CMAQ adjoint). Our focus is on the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in South Korea, which is the receptor region of this study. We examine the contributions of both local and transported emissions to an O3 exceedance episode observed on June 3, 2019, estimating up to four days in advance. By using the CMAQ adjoint, we can determine the sensitivity of O3 remaining in the SMA to changes in O3 precursor emissions (emissions-based sensitivity) and concentrations (concentrations-based sensitivity) along the long-range transport pathways and emission source regions overseas. These include Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Shandong, Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Central China. CMAQ adjoint-derived source attributions suggest that overseas precursor emissions and O3 contributed significantly to the O3 exceedance event in SMA. The emissions-based sensitivities revealed that precursor emissions originating from Shandong, YRD, Central China, and BTH contributed 11.42 ppb, 4.28 ppb, 1.24 ppb, 0.9 ppb, respectively, to the O3 exceedance episode observed in the SMA. Meanwhile, Korean emissions contributed 31.1 ppb. Concentrations-based sensitivities indicated that 19.3 ppb of contributions originated in regions beyond eastern China and directly affected the O3 level in the SMA in the form of background O3. In addition to capturing the transboundary movements of air parcels between the source and receptor regions, we performed HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses. The results align with the trajectories of O3 and its precursors that we obtained from the adjoint method. This study represents a unique effort in employing the adjoint technique to examine the impacts of regional O3 on South Korea, utilizing a combination of emissions-based and concentrations-based sensitivities.Implications: This research brings to light the critical role of both local and regional precursor emissions in contributing to an ozone (O3) exceedance event in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), South Korea. Utilizing the CMAQ adjoint technique, a novel approach in the context of South Korea's O3 investigations, we were able to delineate the quantitative contributions of different regions, both within South Korea and from overseas areas such as Beijing, Shandong, Shanghai, and Central China. Importantly, the results underscore the substantial influence of transboundary pollutant transport, emphasizing the need for international collaboration in addressing air quality issues. As metropolitan areas around the globe grapple with similar challenges, the methodology and insights from this study offer a potent tool and framework for regions seeking to understand and mitigate the impacts of O3 on human health and the environment. By integrating different sensitivity types, coupled with HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses, this research equips policymakers with comprehensive data to design targeted interventions, emphasizing the significance of collaborative efforts in tackling regional air pollution challenges. However, it's important to note the limitation of this study, which is a case study conducted over a short time period. This constraint may impact the generalizability of the findings and suggests a need for further research to validate and expand upon these results.

Source apportionment of ambient pollution levels in Guayaquil, Ecuador

In this study, the relative contributions of main emission sources to the typical ambient concentrations of key pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) in Guayaquil, Ecuador, were investigated. A previous urban emissions inventory for mobile sources was expanded to include other transportation means and main industrial activities using the EMEP/EEA methodology to achieve this objective. The WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system was used to simulate the annual spatiotemporal distribution of air pollution in the city. According to the model, NO2 concentrations exceed the yearly value and 1-h Ecuadorian standards (40 and 200 μg/m3) in 1 % and 6 % of the cells of the modeling domain, respectively. These hotspots related to local sources were located in the northwest center of the city. The contributions of the manufacturing sector, thermal power plants, ports, airports, and road traffic were assessed individually, and the results indicated that air quality in the study area was strongly dominated by road traffic. The contributions of NO2, CO, PM10, and PM2.5 at the city level reached 76 %, 96 %, 90 %, and 92 % of the annual mean, respectively. In the case of SO2, the manufacturing sector made the most significant contribution (75 %), followed by thermal power plants (16 %). Furthermore, an analysis at 14 specific locations across Guayaquil identified spatial variations that may support the design and development of an air quality monitoring network for the city.

Formaldehyde Exposure Racial Disparities in Southeast Texas

Formaldehyde (HCHO) exposures during a full year were calculated for different race/ethnicity groups living in Southeast Texas using a chemical transport model tagged to track nine emission categories. Petroleum and industrial emissions were the largest anthropogenic sources of HCHO exposure in Southeast Texas, accounting for 44% of the total HCHO population exposure. Approximately 50% of the HCHO exposures associated with petroleum and industrial sources were directly emitted (primary), while the other 50% formed in the atmosphere (secondary) from precursor emissions of reactive compounds such as ethylene and propylene. Biogenic emissions also formed secondary HCHO that accounted for 11% of the total population-weighted exposure across the study domain. Off-road equipment contributed 3.7% to total population-weighted exposure in Houston, while natural gas combustion contributed 5% in Beaumont. Mobile sources accounted for 3.7% of the total HCHO population exposure, with less than 10% secondary contribution. Exposure disparity patterns changed with the location. Hispanic and Latino residents were exposed to HCHO concentrations +1.75% above average in Houston due to petroleum and industrial sources and natural gas sources. Black and African American residents in Beaumont were exposed to HCHO concentrations +7% above average due to petroleum and industrial sources, off-road equipment, and food cooking. Asian residents in Beaumont were exposed to HCHO concentrations that were +2.5% above average due to HCHO associated with petroleum and industrial sources, off-road vehicles, and food cooking. White residents were exposed to below average HCHO concentrations in all domains because their homes were located further from primary HCHO emission sources. Given the unique features of the exposure disparities in each region, tailored solutions should be developed by local stakeholders. Potential options to consider in the development of those solutions include modifying processes to reduce emissions, installing control equipment to capture emissions, or increasing the distance between industrial sources and residential neighborhoods.

Summertime tropospheric ozone source apportionment study in the Madrid region (Spain)

The design of emission abatement measures to effectively reduce high ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations in urban areas is very complex. In addition to the strongly non-linear chemistry of this secondary pollutant, precursors can be released by a variety of sources in different regions, and locally produced O3 is mixed with that transported from the regional or continental scales. All of these processes depend also on the specific meteorological conditions and topography of the study area. Consequently, high-resolution comprehensive modeling tools are needed to understand the drivers of photochemical pollution and to assess the potential of local strategies to reduce adverse impacts from high tropospheric O3 levels. In this study, we apply the Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ v5.3.2) model to investigate the origin of summertime O3 in the Madrid region (Spain). Consistent with previous studies, our results confirm that O3 levels are dominated by non-local contributions, representing around 70 % of mean values across the region. Nonetheless, precursors emitted by local sources, mainly road traffic, play a more important role during O3 peaks, with contributions as high as 25 ppb. The potential impact of local measures is higher under unfavorable meteorological conditions associated with regional accumulation patterns. These findings suggest that this modeling system may be used in the future to simulate the potential outcomes of specific emission abatement measures to prevent high-O3 episodes in the Madrid metropolitan area.

How have Divergent Global Emission Trends Influenced Long-range Transported Ozone to North America?

Several locations across the United States in non-compliance with the national standard for ground-level ozone (O3) are thought to have sizeable influences from distant extra-regional emission sources or natural stratospheric O3, which complicates design of local emission control measures. To quantify the amount of long-range transported O3 (LRT O3), its origin, and change over time, we conduct and analyze detailed sensitivity calculations characterizing the response of O3 to emissions from different source regions across the Northern Hemisphere in conjunction with multi-decadal simulations of tropospheric O3 distributions and changes. Model calculations show that the amount of O3 at any location attributable to sources outside North America varies both spatially and seasonally. On a seasonal-mean basis, during 1990-2010, LRT O3 attributable to international sources steadily increased by 0.06-0.2 ppb yr-1 at locations across the United States and arose from superposition of unequal and contrasting trends in individual source-region contributions, which help inform attribution of the trend evident in O3 measurements. Contributions of emissions from Europe steadily declined through 2010, while those from Asian emissions increased and remained dominant. Steadily rising NOx emissions from international shipping resulted in increasing contributions to LRT O3, comparable to those from Asian emissions in recent years. Central American emissions contribute a significant fraction of LRT O3 in southwestern United States. In addition to the LRT O3 attributable to emissions outside of North America, background O3 across the continental United States is comprised of a sizeable and spatially variable fraction that is of stratospheric origin (29-78%).

Integrated Modeling of U.S. Agricultural Soil Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen and Associated Impacts on Air Pollution, Health, and Climate

Agricultural soils are leading sources of reactive nitrogen (Nr) species including nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ammonia (NH₃), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The propensity of NO_x and NH₃ to generate ozone and fine particulate matter and associated impacts on health are highly variable, whereas the climate impacts of long-lived N₂O are independent of emission timing and location. However, these impacts have rarely been compared on a spatially resolved monetized basis. In this study, we update the nitrogen scheme in an agroecosystem model to simulate the Nr emissions from fertilized soils across the contiguous United States. We then apply a reduced-form air pollution health effect model to assess air quality impacts from NO_x and NH₃ and a social cost of N₂O to assess the climate impacts. Assuming an $8.2 million value of a statistical life and a $13,100/ton social cost of N₂O, the air quality impacts are a factor of ∼7 to 15 times as large as the climate impacts in heavily populated coastal regions, whereas the ratios are closer to 2.5 in sparsely populated regions. Our results show that air pollution, health, and climate should be considered jointly in future assessments of how farming practices affect Nr emissions.

Responses of Photochemical Air Pollution in California's San Joaquin Valley to Spatially and Temporally Resolved Changes in Precursor Emissions

Ground-level ozone adversely affects human health and ecosystems. The effectiveness of control programs depends on which precursor(s) are controlled, by how much, and where and when emission reductions occur. We use the adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model to investigate odd oxygen (O_x ≡ O₃ + NO₂) sensitivities in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) to precursor emissions from local and upwind sources. Sensitivities are mapped and disaggregated by hour and day. Taken together, impacts of precursor emissions in the San Francisco Bay area and Sacramento Valley are similar in magnitude to impacts of local SJV emissions. Same-day emission sensitivities are mostly attributable to local sources, with the most influential anthropogenic emissions of VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and NO_x (nitrogen oxides) occurring in the morning (9-11 am) and early afternoon hours (1-3 pm), respectively. For the northernmost SJV receptor, the influence from Sacramento Valley emissions peaks 5-6 h later than Bay area emissions; this difference diminishes for SJV receptors located further downwind. Results show a shift toward more NO_x-sensitive conditions in the afternoon with all but the southernmost receptor shifting from VOC- to NO_x-sensitive conditions. We also evaluate opportunities to control pollution through shifts in precursor emission location and timing.

Changes in Ozone Chemical Sensitivity in the United States from 2007 to 2016

Anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the U.S. have declined substantially over the last decade, altering the NO_x-VOC chemistry and ozone (O₃) production characteristics of many areas. In this work we use multiple air quality analysis tools to assess how these large reductions in NO_x and VOC have affected O₃ production regimes across the U.S. between 2007 and 2016. We first compare observed and modeled evolution of NO_x-limited and NO_x-saturated O₃ formation regimes using a day-of-week (DOW) analysis. This comparison builds confidence in the model's ability to qualitatively capture O₃ changes due to chemistry and meteorology both within years and across periods of large emissions decreases. DOW analysis, however, cannot definitively differentiate between emissions and meteorology impacts. We therefore supplement this analysis with sensitivity calculations from CAMx-HDDM to characterize modeled shifts in O₃ formation chemistry between 2007 and 2016 in different regions of the U.S. We also conduct a more detailed investigation of the O₃ chemical behavior observed in Chicago and Detroit, two complex urban areas in the Midwest. Both the ambient and modeling data show that more locations across the U.S. have shifted towards NO_x-limited regimes between 2007 and 2016. The model-based HDDM sensitivity analysis shows only a few locations remaining NO_x-saturated on high-O₃ days in 2016 including portions of New York City, Chicago, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Los Angeles. This work offers insights into the current state of O₃ production chemistry in large population centers across the U.S., as well as how O₃ chemistry in these areas may evolve in the future.

Evaluation of a highly condensed SAPRC chemical mechanism and two emission inventories for ozone source apportionment and emission control strategy assessments in China

The response of summertime O₃ to changes in the nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, and contributions of different NO_x and VOC sources to O₃ in China are studied using a highly condensed photochemical mechanism in the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) family (CS07A) and two popular anthropogenic emission inventories, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) and Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS). Although CS07A predicts slightly lower O₃ concentrations than the standard fix-parameter version of the SAPRC-11 mechanism, the two mechanisms predict almost identical relative responses to daily maximum 8-hour O₃ (O₃-8h) due to NO_x and VOC emission reductions. A source-oriented version of the CS07A is applied to determine source contributions of NO_x and VOCs to O₃ using MEIC and REAS. The two inventories lead to similar model performance of O₃, with MEIC predicting higher O₃ in Beijing and Shanghai, especially on high O₃ days. Source apportionment results show that industry and transportation are the top two contributors to non-background O₃ for both inventories, followed by power and biogenic emissions. In general, the two inventories lead to similar source contribution estimations to O₃ attributable to NO_x. However, their estimations of relative contributions to VOC-related O₃ differ for the industrial and transportation sectors. Differences in the source apportionment results are more significant in some urban areas, although both emissions capture the spatial variations in the source contributions. Our results suggest that future emission control policies should be assessed using multiple emission inventories, and the condensed CS07A is suitable for policy applications when a large number of simulations are needed.

Overview of Model Inter-Comparison in Japan’s Study for Reference Air Quality Modeling (J-STREAM)

The inter-comparison of regional air quality models is an effective way to understand uncertainty in ambient pollutant concentrations simulated using various model configurations, as well as to find ways to improve model performance. Based on the outcomes and experiences of Japanese projects thus far, a new model inter-comparison project called Japan’s study for reference air quality modeling (J-STREAM) has begun. The objective of J-STREAM is to establish reference air quality modeling for source apportionment and effective strategy making to suppress secondary air pollutants including PM2.5 and photochemical ozone in Japan through model inter-comparison. The first phase focuses on understanding the ranges and limitations in ambient PM2.5 and ozone concentrations simulated by participants using common input datasets. The second phase focuses on issues revealed in previous studies in simulating secondary inorganic aerosols, as well as on the three-dimensional characteristics of photochemical ozone as a new target. The third phase focuses on comparing source apportionments and sensitivities under heavy air pollution episodes simulated by participating models. Detailed understanding of model performance, uncertainty, and possible improvements to urban-scale air pollution involving secondary pollutants, as well as detailed sector-wise source apportionments over megacities in Japan are expected.

Scientific assessment of background ozone over the U.S.: Implications for air quality management

Ozone (O3) is a key air pollutant that is produced from precursor emissions and has adverse impacts on human health and ecosystems. In the U.S., the Clean Air Act (CAA) regulates O3 levels to protect public health and welfare, but unraveling the origins of surface O3 is complicated by the presence of contributions from multiple sources including background sources like stratospheric transport, wildfies, biogenic precursors, and international anthropogenic pollution, in addition to U.S. anthropogenic sources. In this report, we consider more than 100 published studies and assess current knowledge on the spatial and temporal distribution, trends, and sources of background O3 over the continental U.S., and evaluate how it inflattainment of the air quality standards. We conclude that spring and summer seasonal mean U.S. background O3 (USB O3), or O3 formed from natural sources plus anthropogenic sources in countries outside the U.S., is greatest at high elevation locations in the western U.S., with monthly mean maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) mole fractions approaching 50 parts per billion (ppb) and annual 4th highest MDA8s exceeding 60 ppb, at some locations. At lower elevation sites, e.g., along the West and East Coasts, seasonal mean MDA8 USB O3 is in the range of 20-40 ppb, with generally smaller contributions on the highest O3 days. The uncertainty in U.S. background O3 is around ±10 ppb for seasonal mean values and higher for individual days. Noncontrollable O3 sources, such as stratospheric intrusions or precursors from wildfires, can make significant contributions to O3 on some days, but it is challenging to quantify accurately these contributions. We recommend enhanced routine observations, focused fi studies, process-oriented modeling studies, and greater emphasis on the complex photochemistry in smoke plumes as key steps to reduce the uncertainty associated with background O3 in the U.S.

The impact of US wildland fires on ozone and particulate matter: a comparison of measurements and CMAQ model predictions from 2008 to 2012

Wildland fire emissions are routinely estimated in the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Emissions Inventory, specifically for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and precursors to ozone (O₃); however, there is a large amount of uncertainty in this sector. We employ a brute-force zero-out sensitivity method to estimate the impact of wildland fire emissions on air quality across the contiguous US using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system. These simulations are designed to assess the importance of wildland fire emissions on CMAQ model performance and are not intended for regulatory assessments. CMAQ ver. 5.0.1 estimated that fires contributed 11% to the mean PM_2.5 and less than 1% to the mean O₃ concentrations during 2008-2012. Adding fires to CMAQ increases the number of 'grid-cell days' with PM_2.5 above 35 μg m^-3 by a factor of 4 and the number of grid-cell days with maximum daily 8-h average O₃ above 70 ppb by 14%. Although CMAQ simulations of specific fires have improved with the latest model version (e.g. for the 2008 California wildfire episode, the correlation r = 0.82 with CMAQ ver. 5.0.1 v. r = 0.68 for CMAQ ver. 4.7.1), the model still exhibits a low bias at higher observed concentrations and a high bias at lower observed concentrations. Given the large impact of wildland fire emissions on simulated concentrations of elevated PM_2.5 and O₃, improvements are recommended on how these emissions are characterised and distributed vertically in the model.

High-resolution mapping of sources contributing to urban air pollution using adjoint sensitivity analysis: benzene and diesel black carbon

The adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model at 1 km horizontal resolution is used to map emissions that contribute to ambient concentrations of benzene and diesel black carbon (BC) in the San Francisco Bay area. Model responses of interest include population-weighted average concentrations for three highly polluted receptor areas and the entire air basin. We consider both summer (July) and winter (December) conditions. We introduce a novel approach to evaluate adjoint sensitivity calculations that complements existing methods. Adjoint sensitivities to emissions are found to be accurate to within a few percent, except at some locations associated with large sensitivities to emissions. Sensitivity of model responses to emissions is larger in winter, reflecting weaker atmospheric transport and mixing. The contribution of sources located within each receptor area to the same receptor's air pollution burden increases from 38-74% in summer to 56-85% in winter. The contribution of local sources is higher for diesel BC (62-85%) than for benzene (38-71%), reflecting the difference in these pollutants' atmospheric lifetimes. Morning (6-9am) and afternoon (4-7 pm) commuting-related emissions dominate region-wide benzene levels in winter (14 and 25% of the total response, respectively). In contrast, afternoon rush hour emissions do not contribute significantly in summer. Similar morning and afternoon peaks in sensitivity to emissions are observed for the BC response; these peaks are shifted toward midday because most diesel truck traffic occurs during off-peak hours.

Response of global particulate-matter-related mortality to changes in local precursor emissions

Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) assessments estimated that outdoor fine-particulate matter (PM2.5) is a causal factor in over 5% of global premature deaths. PM2.5 is produced by a variety of direct and indirect, natural and anthropogenic processes that complicate PM2.5 management. This study develops a proof-of-concept method to quantify the effects on global premature mortality of changes to PM2.5 precursor emissions. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we calculated sensitivities of global PM2.5-related premature mortality to emissions of precursor gases (SO2, NOx, NH3) and carbonaceous aerosols. We used a satellite-derived ground-level PM2.5 data set at approximately 10 × 10 km(2) resolution to better align the exposure with population density. We used exposure-response functions from the GBD project to relate mortality to exposure in the adjoint calculation. The response of global mortality to changes in local anthropogenic emissions varied spatially by several orders of magnitude. The largest reductions in mortality for a 1 kg km(-2) yr(-1) decrease in emissions were for ammonia and carbonaceous aerosols in Eastern Europe. The greatest reductions in mortality for a 10% decrease in emissions were found for secondary inorganic sources in East Asia. In general, a 10% decrease in SO2 emissions was the most effective source to control, but regional exceptions were found.

A direct sensitivity approach to predict hourly ozone resulting from compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standard

In setting primary ambient air quality standards, the EPA's responsibility under the law is to establish standards that protect public health. As part of the current review of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), the US EPA evaluated the health exposure and risks associated with ambient ozone pollution using a statistical approach to adjust recent air quality to simulate just meeting the current standard level, without specifying emission control strategies. One drawback of this purely statistical concentration rollback approach is that it does not take into account spatial and temporal heterogeneity of ozone response to emissions changes. The application of the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) in the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model is discussed here to provide an example of a methodology that could incorporate this variability into the risk assessment analyses. Because this approach includes a full representation of the chemical production and physical transport of ozone in the atmosphere, it does not require assumed background concentrations, which have been applied to constrain estimates from past statistical techniques. The CMAQ-HDDM adjustment approach is extended to measured ozone concentrations by determining typical sensitivities at each monitor location and hour of the day based on a linear relationship between first-order sensitivities and hourly ozone values. This approach is demonstrated by modeling ozone responses for monitor locations in Detroit and Charlotte to domain-wide reductions in anthropogenic NOx and VOCs emissions. As seen in previous studies, ozone response calculated using HDDM compared well to brute-force emissions changes up to approximately a 50% reduction in emissions. A new stepwise approach is developed here to apply this method to emissions reductions beyond 50% allowing for the simulation of more stringent reductions in ozone concentrations. Compared to previous rollback methods, this application of modeled sensitivities to ambient ozone concentrations provides a more realistic spatial response of ozone concentrations at monitors inside and outside the urban core and at hours of both high and low ozone concentrations.

Ozone and its potential control strategy for Chon Buri city, Thailand

This work studies O3 pollution for Chon Buri city in the eastern region of Thailand, where O3 has become an increased and serious concern in the last decade. It includes emission estimation and photochemical box modeling in support of investigating the underlying nature of O3 formation over the city and the roles of precursors emitted from sources. The year 2006 was considered and two single-day episodes (January 29 and February 14) were chosen for simulations. It was found that, in the city, the industrial sector is the largest emissions contributor for every O3 precursor (i.e., NO(x), non-methane volatile organic compounds or NMVOC, and CO), followed by on-road mobile group. Fugitive NMVOC is relatively large, emitted mainly from oil refineries and tank farms. Simulated results acceptably agree with observations for daily maximum O3 level in both episodes and evidently indicate the VOC-sensitive regime for O3 formation. This regime is also substantiated by morning NMVOC/NO(x) ratios observed in the city. The corresponding O3 isopleth diagrams suggest NMVOC control alone to lower elevated O3. In seeking a potential O3 control strategy for the city, a combination of brute-force sensitivity tests, an experimental design, statistical modeling, and cost optimization was employed. A number of emission subgroups were found to significantly contribute to O3 formation, based on the February 14 episode, for example, oil refinery (fugitive), tank farm (fugitive), passenger car (gasoline), and motorcycle (gasoline). But the cost-effective strategy suggests control only on the first two subgroups to meet the standard. The cost of implementing the strategy was estimated and found to be small (only 0.2%) compared to the gross provincial product generated by the entire province where the city is located within. These findings could be useful as a needed guideline to support O3 management for the city.

IMPLICATIONS

Elevated O3 in the urban and industrial city of Chon Buri needs better understanding of the problem and technical guidelines for its management. With a city-specific emission inventory and air quality modeling, O3 formation was found to be VOC sensitive, and a cost-effective control strategy developed highlights fugitive emissions from the industrial sector to be controlled.