Widespread homogenization in vegetation activities along the elevational gradients across the Himalaya over the past 40 years

Mountainous regions are vital biodiversity hotspots with high heterogeneity, providing essential refugia for vegetation. However, climate change threatens this diversity with the potential homogenization of the distinct environmental conditions at different elevations. Here, we used a time-series (1985-2023) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat archives (30 m) to quantify vegetation changes across an elevation gradient on Himalaya Mountain. Our analysis revealed that over the past 40 years, the Himalayas have experienced widespread greening, accompanied by homogenization of vegetation across elevations. This homogenization, characterized by a reduction in the differences between high and low elevations, can be attributed to two main factors: (1) increased warming and a higher snowmelt rate at high elevations, facilitating rapid changes in high-elevation vegetation activities; and (2) higher anthropogenic disturbance at low and mid elevations, thus inhibiting low-elevation vegetation. These factors have resulted in a reduction of habitat differentiation along the mountain slopes, homogenizing vegetation and potentially threatening the unique biodiversity adapted to specific elevational zones. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for conservation strategies that prioritize the protection of heterogeneous mountain habitats to preserve their rich biodiversity in the face of climate change.

Subtle changes in plant diversity in the Bavarian Alps over the past eight decades

Historical resurveys represent a unique opportunity to analyze vegetation dynamics over longer timescales than is typically achievable. Leveraging the oldest historical dataset of vegetation change in the Bavarian Alps, Germany, we address how environmental conditions, vegetation composition, and functional diversity in the calcareous grasslands of the Schachen region have changed across different elevational ranges over an 83-year timeframe. We document changes in regional average temperature and precipitation. We use indicator values (IV) for species' ecological preferences and their palatability to grazers to infer local conditions (temperature, soil moisture/fertility, and grazing regime). We further estimate changes in temporal beta-diversity and functional trait community composition between historical (1936) and contemporary (2019) surveys in two elevational (subalpine and alpine) belts. Both subalpine and alpine sites became drier; subalpine sites also became warmer with more palatable plants. Species occurrence and abundance in the Schachen region has not changed substantially over time despite changing macroclimate and local environmental conditions under anthropogenic change. Yet these grasslands have experienced several "invisible" changes in functional composition over the past 80 years. As the Schachen has become drier, species with traits related to drought tolerance and animal-based dispersal have increased in dominance. Specifically, in alpine sites, community-weighted means revealed that with low fecundity, higher potential for endo- and epizoochory (seed dispersal via animal gut and fur, respectively), higher foliar frost tolerance, and deeper dormancy increased in dominance. Similar trends were found for increasing dominance of low fecundity, epizoochorous species in subalpine sites. Vegetation data from resurveying historical plots in combination with changes in local conditions, classic biodiversity indices, and functional trait indices can provide more holistic insights into changes in the environment and potential impacts of those environmental changes on long-term plant community and functional diversity.

Phenological responses of alpine snowbed communities to advancing snowmelt

Climate change is leading to advanced snowmelt date in alpine regions. Consequently, alpine plant species and ecosystems experience substantial changes due to prolonged phenological seasons, while the responses, mechanisms and implications remain widely unclear. In this 3-year study, we investigated the effects of advancing snowmelt on the phenology of alpine snowbed species. We related microclimatic drivers to species and ecosystem phenology using in situ monitoring and phenocams. We further used predictive modelling to determine whether early snowmelt sites could be used as sentinels for future conditions. Temperature during the snow-free period primarily influenced flowering phenology, followed by snowmelt timing. Salix herbacea and Gnaphalium supinum showed the most opportunistic phenology, while annual Euphrasia minima struggled to complete its phenology in short growing seasons. Phenological responses varied more between years than sites, indicating potential local long-term adaptations and suggesting these species' potential to track future earlier melting dates. Phenocams captured ecosystem-level phenology (start, peak and end of phenological season) but failed to explain species-level variance. Our findings highlight species-specific responses to advancing snowmelt, with snowbed species responding highly opportunistically to changes in snowmelt timings while following species-specific developmental programs. While species from surrounding grasslands may benefit from extended growing seasons, snowbed species may become outcompeted due to internal-clock-driven, non-opportunistic senescence, despite displaying a high level of phenological plasticity.

Elevational variation in morphology and biomass allocation in carpathian snowbell Soldanella carpatica (Primulaceae)

Plants growing along wide elevation gradients in mountains experience considerable variations in environmental factors that vary across elevations. The most pronounced elevational changes are in climate conditions with characteristic decrease in air temperature with an increase in elevation. Studying intraspecific elevational variations in plant morphological traits and biomass allocation gives opportunity to understand how plants adapted to steep environmental gradients that change with elevation and how they may respond to climate changes related to global warming. In this study, phenotypic variation of an alpine plant Soldanella carpatica Vierh. (Primulaceae) was investigated on 40 sites distributed continuously across a 1,480-m elevation gradient in the Tatra Mountains, Central Europe. Mixed-effects models, by which plant traits were fitted to elevation, revealed that on most part of the gradient total leaf mass, leaf size and scape height decreased gradually with an increase in elevation, whereas dry mass investment in roots and flowers as well as individual flower mass did not vary with elevation. Unexpectedly, in the uppermost part of the elevation gradient overall plant size, including both below-and aboveground plant parts, decreased rapidly causing abrupt plant miniaturization. Despite the plant miniaturization at the highest elevations, biomass partitioning traits changed gradually across the entire species elevation range, namely, the leaf mass fraction decreased continuously, whereas the flower mass fraction and the root:shoot ratio increased steadily from the lowest to the highest elevations. Observed variations in S. carpatica phenotypes are seen as structural adjustments to environmental changes across elevations that increase chances of plant survival and reproduction at different elevations. Moreover, results of the present study agreed with the observations that populations of species from the 'Soldanella' intrageneric group adapted to alpine and subnival zones still maintain typical 'Soldanella'-like appearance, despite considerable reduction in overall plant size.

Environmental and Biogeographic Drivers behind Alpine Plant Thermal Tolerance and Genetic Variation

In alpine ecosystems, elevation broadly functions as a steep thermal gradient, with plant communities exposed to regular fluctuations in hot and cold temperatures. These conditions lead to selective filtering, potentially contributing to species-level variation in thermal tolerance and population-level genetic divergence. Few studies have explored the breadth of alpine plant thermal tolerances across a thermal gradient or the underlying genetic variation thereof. We measured photosystem heat (Tcrit-hot) and cold (Tcrit-cold) thresholds of ten Australian alpine species across elevation gradients and characterised their neutral genetic variation. To reveal the biogeographical drivers of present-day genetic signatures, we also reconstructed temporal changes in habitat suitability across potential distributional ranges. We found intraspecific variation in thermal thresholds, but this was not associated with elevation, nor underpinned by genetic differentiation on a local scale. Instead, regional population differentiation and considerable homozygosity within populations may, in part, be driven by distributional contractions, long-term persistence, and migrations following habitat suitability. Our habitat suitability models suggest that cool-climate-distributed alpine plants may be threatened by a warming climate. Yet, the observed wide thermal tolerances did not reflect this vulnerability. Conservation efforts should seek to understand variations in species-level thermal tolerance across alpine microclimates.

Survival in nunatak and peripheral glacial refugia of three alpine plant species is partly predicted by altitudinal segregation

Mountain biota survived the Quaternary cold stages most probably in peripheral refugia and/or ice-free peaks within ice-sheets (nunataks). While survival in peripheral refugia has been broadly demonstrated, evidence for nunatak refugia is still scarce. We generated RADseq data from three mountain plant species occurring at different elevations in the southeastern European Alps to investigate the role of different glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We tested the following hypotheses. (i) The deep Piave Valley forms the deepest genetic split in the species distributed across it, delimiting two peripheral refugia. (ii) The montane to alpine species Campanula morettiana and Primula tyrolensis survived the LGM in peripheral refugia, while high-alpine to subnival Saxifraga facchinii likely survived in several nunatak refugia. (iii) The lower elevation species suffered a strong population decline during the LGM. By contrast, the higher elevation species shows long-term stability of population sizes due to survival on permanently ice-free peaks and small population sizes at present. We found peripheral refugia on both sides of the Piave Valley, which acted as a major genetic barrier. Demographic modelling confirmed nunatak survival not only for S. facchinii but also for montane to alpine C. morettiana. Altitudinal segregation influenced the species' demographic fluctuations, with the lower elevation species showing a significant population increase at the end of the LGM, and the higher elevation species either showing decrease towards the present or stable population sizes with a short bottleneck. Our results highlight the role of nunatak survival and species ecology in the demographic history of mountain species.

An investigation into the potential for upward range expansion in high-montane species on the roof of the world

Climate warming is occurring in high-mountain areas at a faster rate than the global average. To escape the increasing temperatures, alpine species may shift in distribution upwards, threatening cold-adapted nival plant specialists. However, little is known about the success of seedling emergence and establishment at high altitudes outside the current range, particularly in the highest mountain areas of the Himalayas. We selected four native alpine species occurring around 4000 m a.s.l. and sowed seeds at the natural growing site (GS), at a high elevation site (HS; 5000 m a.s.l.) and at high elevation with soil from the growing site (HS-S) in the Khumbu Valley, north-eastern Nepal. We monitored seedling emergence and establishment for two consecutive years. Seedling emergence and establishment varied between species. Emergence was similar between GS and HS and improved at HS-S. Establishment was low at high elevations with all but one species having high mortality after winter. Seedling emergence of low elevation plants is possible at high elevations in the Everest region, indicating species may be able to shift their distribution range upwards. However, successful establishment may be limited by the soil and high winter mortality at high elevations, although not in all species. Climate warming will potentially lead to upward migration of some Himalayan plant species, leading to altered community composition in high-mountain areas.

Climate effect on the growth and hydraulic traits of two shrubs from the top of a Mediterranean mountain

Increasing mean global temperatures in conjunction with increases in the frequency and severity of drought events affect plant growth and physiology, particularly in more arid and mountainous ecosystems. Thus, it is imperative to understand the response of plant growth to climatic oscillations in these regions. This study used dendrochronological and wood anatomical traits of two shrub species growing over 1500 m.a.s.l. in the Serra da Estrela (Portugal), Juniperus communis and Cytisus oromediterraneus, to analyze their response to temperature and water availability parameters. Results showed an increase in shrub growth related to the increase over time of the mean minimum and maximum monthly temperature in Serra da Estrela. Warming seems to promote shrub growth because it lengthens the growing season, although J. communis responds mainly to spring maximum temperature while C. oromediterraneus is influenced by fall maximum temperature. Hydraulic traits of J. communis and C. oromediterraneus were negatively influenced by winter drought. Additionally, there were species-specific differences in response to changes in water availability. J. communis radial growth was significantly affected by spring drought conditions, while C. oromediterraneus radial growth was significantly affected by spring precipitation. C. oromediterraneus hydraulic traits were also significantly affected by drought conditions from the previous spring and fall. This study shed light on specific differences in the response to climate between two co-occurring shrub species in the top of an understudied Mediterranean mountain, which could have implications in the future distribution of woody species within this region.

Early-melting snowpatch plant communities are transitioning into novel states

Snowpatch plant community distribution and composition are strongly tied to the duration of long-lasting snow cover in alpine areas; they are vulnerable to global climatic changes that result in warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. We used a revisitation study to quantify early-melting snowpatch floristic and functional diversity change in southern Australia, and document shrub size-class distributions over time to detect evidence for their encroachment into snowpatches, a key prediction with climatic change. Early-melting snowpatch vegetation has declined in areal extent, changed in species composition, and shrub and tussock grass cover has increased, but changes in functional trait diversity were less clear. Species gains, particularly by non-clonal species, accounted for most of the floristic change observed. Shrub recruitment was ongoing by most shrub species. Biotic differentiation is occurring; many early-melting snowpatches are transitioning to a novel state with changed composition and taller vegetation structure, but there is little evidence for species loss having occurred. Given enough time, however, the long-term loss of species is likely (i.e. biotic homogenisation) if taller shrubs outcompete short-statured snowpatch species. Our results provide evidence that this alpine ecosystem is forming a novel community with an uncertain future.

Effects of Climatic Change on Phylogeography and Ecological Niche of the Endemic Herb Elymus breviaristatus on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Past climatic and topographic variations have created strong biogeographic barriers for alpine species and are key drivers of the distribution of genetic variation and population dynamics of species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Therefore, to better conserve and use germplasm resources, it is crucial to understand the distribution and differentiation of genetic variation within species. Elymus breviaristatus, an ecologically important rare grass species with strong resistance, is restricted to a limited area of the QTP. In this study, we investigated the phylogeography of E. breviaristatus using five chloroplast genes and spacer regions in natural populations distributed along the eastern QTP. We identified a total of 25 haplotypes among 216 individuals from 18 E. breviaristatus populations, which were further classified into four haplogroups based on geographical distribution and haplotype network analysis. Notably, we did not observe any signs of population expansion. High genetic diversity was exhibited at both species and population levels, with precipitation being the main limiting factor for population genetic diversity levels. Higher genetic diversity was exhibited by populations located near the Mekong-Salween Divide genetic barrier, suggesting that they may have served as a glacial refuge. The significant pattern of genetic differentiation by environmental isolation highlights the influence of heterogeneous environments on the genetic structure of E. breviaristatus populations. Additionally, the results of ecological niche models indicated that the geographic distribution of E. breviaristatus populations has decreased rapidly since the Last Glacial Maximum but is not threatened by future global warming.

Concepts in Alpine Plant Ecology

The alpine life zone is perhaps the only biome that occurs globally where mountains are high enough. At latitudinally varying elevation, the alpine belt hosts small stature plants that vary greatly in morphology, anatomy and physiology. In this contribution, I summarize a number of principles that govern life in what is often considered a cold and hostile environment. The 12 conceptual frameworks depicted include the key role of aerodynamic decoupling from free atmospheric climatic conditions, the problematic concepts of limitation and stress in an evolutionary context, and the role of developmental flexibility and functional diversity. With its topography driven habitat diversity, alpine plant diversity is buffered against environmental change, and the multitude of microclimatic gradients offers 'experiments by nature', the power of which awaits multidisciplinary exploration.

Genome-environment associations along elevation gradients in two snowbed species of the North-Eastern Calcareous Alps

BACKGROUND

Anthropogenic climate change leads to increasing temperatures and altered precipitation and snowmelt patterns, especially in alpine ecosystems. To understand species' responses to climate change, assessment of genetic structure and diversity is crucial as the basis for the evaluation of migration patterns, genetic adaptation potential as well as the identification of adaptive alleles.

RESULTS

We studied genetic structure, diversity and genome-environment associations of two snowbed species endemic to the Eastern Alps with a large elevational range, Achillea clusiana Tausch and Campanula pulla L. Genotyping-by-sequencing was employed to assemble loci de novo, call variants and perform population genetic analyses. Populations of either species were distinguishable by mountain, and to some extent by elevation. We found evidence for gene flow between elevations. Results of genome-environment associations suggested similar selective pressures acting on both species, emanating mainly from precipitation and exposition rather than temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Given their genetic structure and amount of gene flow among populations the two study species are suitable to serve as a model for genetic monitoring of climate change adaptation along an elevation gradient. Consequences of climate change will predominantly manifest via changes in precipitation and, thus, duration of snow cover in the snowbeds and indirectly via shrub encroachment accompanied by increasing shading of snowbeds at lower range margins. Assembling genomes of the study species and studying larger sample sizes and time series will be necessary to functionally characterize and validate the herein identified genomic loci putatively involved in adaptive processes.

Stable plant community biomass production despite species richness collapse under simulated extreme climate in the European Alps

Direct observation of biodiversity loss in response to abrupt climate change can resolve fundamental questions about temporal community dynamics and clarify the controversial debate of biodiversity loss impacts on ecosystem functioning. We tracked local plant species loss and the corresponding change of aboveground biomass of native and non-native species by actively pushing mountain grassland ecosystems beyond their ecological thresholds in a five-year, multisite translocation experiment across the European Alps. Our results show that species loss (ranging from a 73 % to 94 % reduction in species richness) caused by simulated climate extremes (strong warming interacting with drought) did not decrease community biomass. Even without non-native species colonization, the community biomass of native species remained stable during native species richness collapse. Switching our research focus from local extinction in the face of climate change towards the beneficial impacts of persisting native species (in addition to novel plant-plant interactions) might yield insights on transformative opportunities for boosting climate resilience.

Drought Timing Modulates Soil Moisture Thresholds for CO2 Fluxes and Vegetation Responses in an Experimental Alpine Grassland

Drought timing determines the degree to which dry events impact ecosystems, with the ability of key processes to withstand change differing between drought periods. Findings indicate that drought timing effects vary across ecosystems, with few studies focusing on alpine grasslands. We conducted a mesocosm experiment using small grassland monoliths collected in September from the high Alps and left to overwinter at 0 °C until the experiment began in lowland Italy under late-winter outdoor conditions. Together with watered controls, we imposed three different drought treatments (zero precipitation): (1) one-month early-drought immediately after simulated snowmelt; (2) one-month mid-drought a month after melt-out; and (3) continuous two-month drought across the entire experimental period. Ecosystem responses were assessed by measuring CO2 fluxes, while vegetation responses were investigated by measuring aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of graminoids and forbs and post-harvest resprouting after one-month rehydration. We found that ecosystem respiration and gross ecosystem production (GEP) during the day were more negatively affected by mid-season drought compared to drought starting early in the season. By the end of treatments, GEP reduction under mid-season drought was similar to that of a continuous two-month drought. ANPP reduction was similar in early- and mid-drought treatments, showing a greater decrease under an enforced two-month period without precipitation. Plant resprouting, however, was only reduced in full- and mid-season drought pots, with forbs more negatively affected than graminoids. Seasonal soil moisture variation can account for these patterns: remaining winter moisture allowed almost full canopy development during the first month of the season, despite precipitation being withheld, while soil moisture depletion in the second month, resulting from higher temperatures and greater biomass, caused a collapse of gas exchange and diminished plant resprouting. Our data illustrates the importance of the timing of zero-precipitation periods for both plant and ecosystem responses in alpine grasslands.

Genome Size in the Arenaria ciliata Species Complex (Caryophyllaceae), with Special Focus on A. ciliata subsp. bernensis, a Narrow Endemic of the Swiss Northern Alps

The genus Arenaria (Caryophyllaceae) comprises approximately 300 species worldwide; however, to date, just six of these taxa have been investigated in terms of their genome size. The main subject of the present study is the A. ciliata species complex, with special focus on A. ciliata subsp. bernensis, an endemic plant occurring in the Swiss Northern Alps. Altogether, 16 populations and 77 individuals of the A. ciliata complex have been sampled and their genome sizes were estimated using flow cytometry, including A. ciliata subsp. bernensis, A. ciliata s.str., A. multicaulis, and A. gothica. The Arenaria ciliata subsp. bernensis shows the highest 2c-value of 6.91 pg of DNA, while A. gothica showed 2c = 3.69 pg, A. ciliata s.str. 2c = 1.71 pg, and A. multicaulis 2c = 1.57 pg. These results confirm the very high ploidy level of A. ciliata subsp. bernensis (2n = 20x = 200) compared to other taxa in the complex, as detected by our chromosome counting and previously documented by earlier work. The genome size and, thus, also the ploidy level, is stable across the whole distribution area of this taxon. The present study delivers additional support for the taxonomic distinctiveness of the high alpine endemic A. ciliata subsp. bernensis, which strongly aligns with other differences in morphology, phylogeny, phenology, ecology, and plant communities, described previously. In affirming these differences, further support now exists to re-consider the species status of this taxon. Upgrading to full species rank would significantly improve the conservation prospects for this taxon, as, because of its precise ecological adaptation to alpine summit habitats, the A. ciliata subsp. bernensis faces acute threats from accelerated climate warming.

Growth of alpine grassland will start and stop earlier under climate warming

Alpine plants have evolved a tight seasonal cycle of growth and senescence to cope with a short growing season. The potential growing season length (GSL) is increasing because of climate warming, possibly prolonging plant growth above- and belowground. We tested whether growth dynamics in typical alpine grassland are altered when the natural GSL (2-3 months) is experimentally advanced and thus, prolonged by 2-4 months. Additional summer months did not extend the growing period, as canopy browning started 34-41 days after the start of the season, even when GSL was more than doubled. Less than 10% of roots were produced during the added months, suggesting that root growth was as conservative as leaf growth. Few species showed a weak second greening under prolonged GSL, but not the dominant sedge. A longer growing season under future climate may therefore not extend growth in this widespread alpine community, but will foster species that follow a less strict phenology.

Photosynthetic Traits of Páramo Plants Subjected to Short-Term Warming in OTC Chambers

Global warming and changes in land use are some of the main threats to high mountain species. Both can interact in ways not yet assessed. In this study, we evaluated the photosynthetic responses of six common páramo species within a warming experiment using open-top chambers (OTC) in conserved páramo areas with different land use histories. We did not find significant differences in the photochemical performance of the species as measured through Fv/Fm, ETR, and NPQ in response to passive warming, indicating that warmed plants are not stressed. However, NPQ values were higher in recovering areas, especially in the driest and warmest months. Leaf transpiration, stomatal conductance, and Ci were not affected by the OTC or the land use history. The photosynthetic capacity, maximum photosynthetic capacity, and carboxylation rate of RuBisCO increased in response to warming but only in the area with no anthropogenic intervention. These results suggest that species will respond differently to warming depending on the history of páramo use, and therefore not all páramo communities will respond equally to climate change. In disturbed sites with altered soil conditions, plants could have a lower breadth of physiological response to warming.

Enhanced habitat loss of the Himalayan endemic flora driven by warming-forced upslope tree expansion

High-elevation trees cannot always reach the thermal treeline, the potential upper range limit set by growing-season temperature. But delineation of the realized upper range limit of trees and quantification of the drivers, which lead to trees being absent from the treeline, is lacking. Here, we used 30 m resolution satellite tree-cover data, validated by more than 0.7 million visual interpretations from Google Earth images, to map the realized range limit of trees along the Himalaya which harbours one of the world's richest alpine endemic flora. The realized range limit of trees is ~800 m higher in the eastern Himalaya than in the western and central Himalaya. Trees had reached their thermal treeline positions in more than 80% of the cases over eastern Himalaya but are absent from the treeline position in western and central Himalaya, due to anthropogenic disturbance and/or premonsoon drought. By combining projections of the deviation of trees from the treeline position due to regional environmental stresses with warming-induced treeline shift, we predict that trees will migrate upslope by ~140 m by the end of the twenty-first century in the eastern Himalaya. This shift will cause the endemic flora to lose at least ~20% of its current habitats, highlighting the necessity to reassess the effectiveness of current conservation networks and policies over the Himalaya.

Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories

Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.

Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change

Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible uniquely adapted species. However, ecosystems along these mountains are not expected to respond similarly to the change. The ericaceous woody vegetation, located between the low-elevation broadleaf forests and high-elevation afroalpine vegetation, are anticipated to be affected differently. We hypothesize that projected climate change will result in an upward expansion and increasing dominance of ericaceous vegetation, which will negatively impact the endemic rich afroalpine ecosystems of the extensive Sanetti plateau. Hence, we modeled the impact of future climate change on the distribution of ericaceous vegetation and discussed its effect on bordering ecosystems in the Bale Mountains. We applied four familiar correlative modeling approaches: bioclim, domain, generalized linear methods, and support vector machines. We used WorldClim's bioclimatic variables as environmental predictors and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report climate change scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for future climate projection. The results indicate increased ericaceous vegetation cover on the midaltitude of northwestern and northern parts of the massif, and the Sanetti plateau. We observed upward range expansion and increase of close ericaceous vegetation in midaltitudes, while receding from the lower range across the massif. Moreover, the current ericaceous vegetation range correlates to the temperature and precipitation trends, reaffirming the critical role of temperature and precipitation in determining species distributions along elevational gradients. The results indicate the high likelihood of considerable changes in this biodiversity hotspot in Eastern Africa.

Mountain Watch: How LT(S)ER Is Safeguarding Southern Africa’s People and Biodiversity for a Sustainable Mountain Future

Southern Africa is an exceptionally diverse region with an ancient geologic and climatic history. Its mountains are located in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes at a tropical–temperate interface, offering a rare opportunity to contextualise and frame our research from an austral perspective to balance the global narrative around sustainable mountain futures for people and biodiversity. Limited Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) was initiated more than a century ago in South Africa to optimise catchment management through sound water policy. The South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) has resurrected many government LTER programmes and added observatories representative of the country’s heterogeneous zonobiomes, including its mountain regions. LTER in other Southern African mountains is largely absent. The current rollout of the Expanded Freshwater and Terrestrial Environmental Observation Network (EFTEON) and the Southern African chapters of international programmes such as the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA), RangeX, and the Global Soil Biodiversity Observation Network (Soil BON), as well as the expansion of the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN), is ushering in a renaissance period of global change research in the region, which takes greater cognisance of its social context. This diversity of initiatives will generate a more robust knowledge base from which to draw conclusions about how to better safeguard the well-being of people and biodiversity in the region and help balance livelihoods and environmental sustainability in our complex, third-world socio-ecological mountain systems.