Future Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Scenarios in the Ecological Conservation Area, Beijing, China

Study on the trade-off/synergy between ecosystem services and human well-being based on land use in Weinan City, China

Change of land use have important impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and human well-being (HWB), yet the trade-off/synergy among land use, ESs, and HWB has still not received sufficient attention at city regional scales level. Weinan City in the southern of the Loess Plateau of China was taken as the study area. Based on ArcGIS, InVEST model, and RUSLE model, the characteristics of spatial and temporal variations of land use and ESs from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed, and the trade-off/synergy relationship between land use, ESs, and HWB was quantified using correlation analysis. The results indicated that the area of cultivated land decreased significantly and the area of built-up land increased significantly from 2000 to 2020 in Weinan City. The grain production, soil conservation, and water yield functions showed an increasing trend, which was a synergistic relationship with HWB. Carbon storage and habitat quality functions showed a decreasing trend, which was a trade-off relationship with HWB. The index value of HWB has increased significantly, mainly in the added value of agricultural and rural per capita income. Land use intensity has a trade-off relationship with GP, WY functions, and HWB. There are many factors that affect this trade-off/synergy relationship, such as land use patterns, economic development, and population growth. The study can provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of regional economy and nature.

Spatio-temporal evolution and trend prediction of urban ecosystem service value based on CLUE-S and GM (1,1) compound model

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is a significant indicator related to regional ecological well-being. Evaluating ESV premised on continuous time series land benefit data can provide an accurate reference for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. Taking Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province as an example, the study analyzed land use changes based on the land use data of the continuous time series from 2000 to 2020 and introduced a socio-economic adjustment factor and biomass factor adjustment factor to construct a dynamic assessment model of ecosystem service value. The spatiotemporal changes of the ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang City were evaluated, and the dynamic prediction of the ecosystem service value was made using the CLUE-S model and the GM (1,1) model. (1) The changes in the overall ESV and spatial pattern in Shijiazhuang are strongly linked to the change in land use, and the contribution of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland to ecosystem service value exceeds 90%. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, the value of ecosystem services illustrated a dynamic change and gradually declined, with the total amount falling from 28.003 to 19.513 billion yuan. Among individual ecosystem services, the value of regulation services suffered the most serious loss. (3) CLUE-S and GM (1,1) perform well in the prediction of ESV. The prediction outcomes illustrate that the ecosystem service value of Shijiazhuang will continue to decline by 2025, and the ecosystem value will drop to 16.771 billion yuan. This research may offer a reference for the dynamic assessment of ESV of the continuous sequence and help to promote regional ecological protection and sustainable development.

What impacts ecosystem services in tropical coastal tourism cities? A comparative case study of Haikou and Sanya, China

The ecological environment of tourism-oriented towns is attracting increasing attention. Taking the cities of Haikou and Sanya as examples, we examined changes in six ecosystem services (ES), including water conservation (WC), crop production (CP), soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and tourism recreation (TR) from 2005 to 2020. From the three perspectives of geographical environment, socioeconomic development, and tourism development force, 14 indicators were chosen to examine the impact on ES. Except for Haikou's TR, the other ES of Haikou and Sanya showed a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2020. The values of six ES were lower in coastal zones than in noncoastal zones, which were more obvious in Sanya. Specifically, the areas of low value in Sanya were concentrated in the coastal region, and the areas with low value in Haikou were primarily distributed in blocks along the coast and in bands or points in the central and southern areas. From the perspective of influencing factors, the natural environmental factors dominate in Haikou, followed by the socio-economic factors and finally the tourism development factors, while the natural environmental factors also dominate in Sanya, followed by the tourism development factors and finally the socio-economic factors. We provided recommendations for sustainable tourism development in Haikou and Sanya. This study has significant implications for both integrated management and scientific decision-making to enhance the ES of tourism destinations.

An integration method to predict the impact of urban land use change on green space connectivity under different development scenarios using a case study of Nanjing, China

Urbanization leads to land use change and fragmentation of green patches, affecting natural habitats and their connectivity. Scientific prediction and analysis of the impact of future land use change on green space connectivity are an effective tool for planning and evaluating urban sustainable development, especially for ecological protection in rapidly developing areas. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that uses the CA-Markov method and combines a morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) with a graph theory analysis to jointly evaluate the impact of land use change on the habitat connectivity index under different urban development scenarios from two aspects of structural and functional connectivity. Using China's rapidly developing Nanjing as the study area, the land use changes under four scenarios in 2030 are forecast, and the connectivity index is analyzed. The results showed that only under the ecological land protection scenario will forest and grassland increase, but the strong barrier effect is still brought about by urban expansion from the analysis of the structural connectivity. At the level of functional connectivity, we identified the important connecting patches and future change trends of species with different diffusion distances. In addition, we identified the key connecting patches (i.e., stepping stones) and changes and suggested giving priority to the protection of these patches. This method can be applied to other rapidly developing cities, and the conclusions can be used as a spatial explicit tool for urban green space and land use planning.

Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios

Land use and land cover (LULC) projections are critical for climate models to predict the impacts of LULC change on the Earth system. Different assumptions and policies influence LULC changes, which are a key factor in the decisions of planners and conservationists. Therefore, we predicted and analyzed LULC changes in future scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP5-85) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MYRB). We obtain historical (i.e., 2005-2020) LULC data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform using the random forest (RF) classification method. LULC data for different future scenarios are also obtained by the driving factors of LULC changes in future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., 2035-2095) and the patch-generated land use simulation (PLUS) model. The major findings are as follows: (1) simulation using the PLUS model based on the acquired classification data and the selected drivers can obtain accurate land use data in MYRB and a Kappa coefficient of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively; (2) as for the LULC changes in the MYRB, forests increased by 3.9% and decreased by 1.2% in the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 scenarios, respectively, while farmland decreased by 9.2% and increased by 13.4% in SSP 1-26 and SSP 2-45, respectively, during 2080-2095; and (3) the main conversions in LULC in the MYRB were farmland to forest, forests/water bodies to farmland, and forests/grasslands to farmland/buildings in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5, respectively. This can be mainly attributed to gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this study not only contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms of LULC changes in the MYRB but also provides a basis for ecological and climatic studies.

Evaluation of the Thermal Environmental Effects of Urban Ecological Networks—A Case Study of Xuzhou City, China

Urban heat islands (UHIs) constitute an important ecological problem in cities. Ecological space has a positive effect on UHI mitigation, which can be effectively organized in the form of ecological networks. In this study, the framework for structural UHI improvement based on ecological networks considering the source-corridor model is proposed to examine the spatial threshold of the thermal effect of ecological network factors. Additionally, the cooling mechanism of each constituent element in the ecological network context is further explored. The results demonstrate that (1) an obvious cold and heat island spatial aggregation distribution exists in the Xuzhou main urban area, and land of the same land use type exhibits the dual thermal environmental properties of cold and heat islands through its spatial distribution and characteristics. Ecological space is the main bearing area of cold islands. (2) The ecological network in the main urban area of Xuzhou city occurs at a moderately complex level, and the overall network efficiency is acceptable; the network connectivity is low, while the network loop distribution is uneven. (3) Ecological networks represent an effective spatial means to improve overall UHI patterns. The ecological source area cooling threshold is 300 m, and the optimal threshold is 100 m, while the ecological corridor width threshold is 500 m and 60 m, respectively. (4) Within the optimal threshold in the context of ecological networks, the temperature of ecological sources in category G land is influenced by NDBI and FVC; ecological corridors are mainly influenced by NDBI. The results can provide a quantitative basis for urban ecological network planning considering UHI improvement and a reference for urban thermal environment research within different ecological substrates and planning and control systems in other countries and regions worldwide.

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics analysis and optimization prediction of urban green infrastructure: a case study of Beijing, China

The reasonable layout of green infrastructure is conducive to the low-carbon, livable and high-quality sustainable development of cities. The framework of spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction analysis of Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) was constructed by integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) and CA-Markov in the study. We analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of UGI in Beijing from 1990 to 2019, predicted its future change trend in 2030, and put forward the optimization scheme for the ecological network of UGI. The area change of UGI presented a "V" shape from 1990 to 2019 in Beijing, and the turning point was around 2009. Its spatial distribution revealed a significant heterogeneity. The comprehensive change rate index showed a "rising and then falling" trend from 1990 to 2019. Core with an area of over 1000 km2 had inclined "C" shape, connecting the north, west and south of the study area. Among the three prediction scenarios for 2030, the area of UGI under the ecological conservation priority scenario is the largest, accounting for 86.35% of the total area. The area of UGI under the economic development priority scenario is the smallest, accounting for 76.85%. The optimization of zoning and road network are effective measures to improve the connectivity of UGI in Beijing. This study is beneficial to extend the research ideas of UGI and promote sustainable urban development.

Assessing the impact of land use land cover change on regulatory ecosystem services of subtropical scrub forest, Soan Valley Pakistan

This study investigated the effect of land use land cover (LULC) changes on carbon sequestration in the Hayat-ul-Mir subtropical scrub reserve forest, Pakistan. Supervised maximum likelihood classification of Landsat satellite imagery was done to assess spatio-temporal changes in LULC during 2007, 2013 and 2019. The CA–Markov model was used to simulate LULC of 2030. Spatial LULC data and carbon pools data was processed in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon model to investigate the effect of LULC on future carbon dynamics. The analysis revealed increase in cover of A. modesta and O. ferruginea and decrease in agriculture, built up and barren area of forest during 2007–2019 and 2030. The analysis also showed that the forest would additionally sequester 111 Mg C with an overall Net Present Value of $4112.05 in year 2030. The analysis revealed LULC changes on 25% area with increase and decrease in the value of ecosystem service (at some location) from carbon storage and loss as CO₂ emissions respectively depending on the type of LULC converted. The study is helpful in identifying areas of potential carbon sequestration to maximize net benefits from management interventions.

A Bibliometric Analysis on the Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services: Current Status, Progress, and Future Directions

Land use changes cause significant alterations in the land surface structure and significantly impact ecosystem services. Research on land use change (LUC) and ecosystem services has become one of the hotspots of interdisciplinary research in ecology and geography. Based on 1860 publications collected from the Web of Science Core CollectionTM (WoS), the top authors, top organizations, top journals, and subject categories were discussed in detail. For the number of published articles, Sustainability ranks first with 86 publications, providing significant contributions in domain. The keywords could be classified into six categories: land use/land cover change, conservation, biodiversity, policies and programmers, environmental change, and agriculture. Citations and reference co-citations were analyzed, and popular literature and co-cited literature in the field were identified. In the discussion, we focus on four important issues, including land use area changes, land use pattern changes, land use spatial pattern changes, and land use changes at different scales. The research framework in the field and the shortcomings of existing research are discussed as well. The main aim of the paper is to assist researchers in identifying potential gaps in the research that should be addressed in future research.

The Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve in Jiangxi Province, China

Ecosystem services are directly related to human well-being. Previous studies showed that management policies and human activities alter the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services. Taking effective measures to manage the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services is essential to sustain ecological security and achieve a “win-win” situation between society and ecosystems. This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes of water yield, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration in the Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve from 2000 to 2020 based on the InVEST model. We distinguished spatial patterns of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services using the correlation relationship analysis. Then we analyzed the response of ecosystem services relationships among different vegetation types and elevation bands. The results showed that water yield and carbon sequestration presented an overall upward trend, while soil conservation remained a marginal degradation. Rising ecosystem services were mainly in the central, western, and southeastern regions, and declining areas were mainly distributed in the midwestern and northeastern fringes. Synergies spatially dominated the interactions among water yield, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration, and the trade-offs were primarily concentrated in the northern, southern, and southwestern fringes. Among the different vegetation types, synergies dominated ecosystem services in broad-leaved forests, coniferous forests, mixed forests, and Moso bamboo forests and in grass. The trade-offs were gradually reduced with elevation. This study highlighted that trade-off of ecosystem services should be incorporated into ecological management policies, strengthening the effectiveness of nature reserves in protecting and improving China’s ecosystem services.

Evolution of Habitat Quality and Its Topographic Gradient Effect in Northwest Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 Based on the InVEST Model

Regional land use change and ecological security are important fields and have been popular issues in global change research in recent years. Regional habitat quality is also an important embodiment of the service function and health of ecosystems. Taking Shiyan City of Hubei Province as an example, the spatiotemporal differences in habitat quality in Shiyan City were evaluated using the habitat quality module of the InVEST model and GIS spatial analysis method based on DEM and land use data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. According to the habitat quality index values, the habitats were divided into four levels indicating habitat quality: I (very bad), II (bad), III (good), and IV (excellent), and the topographic gradient effect of habitat quality was studied using the topographic position index. The results show the following. (1) The habitat quality of Shiyan City showed relatively high and obvious spatial heterogeneity overall and, more specifically, was high in the northwest and southwest, moderate in the center, and low in the northeast. The higher quality habitats (levels III, IV) were mainly distributed in mountain and hill areas and water areas, while those with lower quality habitats (levels I, II) were mainly distributed in agricultural urban areas. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the overall average habitat quality of Shiyan City first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. Additionally, the habitat area increased with an improvement in the level. There was a trend in habitat transformation moving from low to high quality level, showing a spatial pattern of “rising in the southwest and falling in the northeast”. (3) The habitat quality in the water area and woodland area was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of cultivated land was the lowest. From 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland decreased slightly, while the habitat quality of water increased significantly. (4) The higher the level of the topographic position index, the smaller the change range of land use types with time. The terrain gradient effect of habitat quality was significant. With the increase in terrain level, the average habitat quality correspondingly improved, but the increasing range became smaller and smaller. These results are helpful in revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality caused by land use changes in Shiyan City and can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of regional ecosystem patterns and land use planning and management, and they are of great significance for planning the rational and sustainable use of land resources and the construction of an ecological civilization.

Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China

It is generally believed that land-use changes can affect a variety of ecosystem services (ES), but the relationships involved remain unclear due to a lack of systematic knowledge and gaps in data. In order to make rational decisions for land-use planning that is grounded in a systematic understanding of trade-offs between different land-use strategies, it is very important to understand the response mechanisms of various ecosystem services to changes in land-use. Therefore, the objective of our study is to assess the effects of land-use change on six ecosystem services and their trade-offs among the ecosystem services in the ecological conservation area (ECA) in Beijing, China. To do this, we projected future land-use in 2030 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Protection (ELP), and Rapid Urban Development (RUD), using GeoSOS-FLUS model. Then, we quantified six ecosystem services (carbon storage, soil conservation, water purification, habitat quality, flood regulation, and food production) in response to land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, using a spatially explicit InVEST model. Finally, we illustrated the trade-offs and/or synergistic relationships between each ecosystem service quantified under each of the different scenarios in 2030. Results showed that built-up land is projected to increase by 281.18 km2 at the cost of water bodies and cultivated land from 2015 to 2030 under the RUD scenario, while forest land is projected to increase by 152.38 km2 under the ELP scenario. The carbon storage, soil conservation, habitat quality, and the sum of ecosystem services (SES) would enrich the highest level under the ELP scenario. Land-use strategies that follow the ELP scenario can better maintain the ecosystem services and sustainable development of natural and social economic systems.

Spatial Transformation of a New City in 2006–2020: Perspectives on the Spatial Dynamics, Environmental Quality Degradation, and Socio—Economic Sustainability of Local Communities in Makassar City, Indonesia

The accelerated development of new urban areas has an impact on changes in the spatial use and complexity of ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to analyze (1) spatial transformation works as a determinant of changes in the social formation of local communities in the new city area of Metro Tanjung Bunga; (2) process of social interaction and social adaptation between immigrants and local communities in new social formations in the new city area of Metro Tanjung Bunga; and (3) the effect of spatial use, changes in social formation, and work differentiation on the socio-economic sustainability of local communities. The research method used involves a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Data were obtained by observation, in-depth interviews, surveys, and documentation. The results of the study show that spatial transformation has an impact on changing the single social formations of local communities into multiple social formations and transforming differences in modes of production between migrants and local communities into changes in the order of life of local communities. These changing interactions and social adaptations cause changes in the social structures and cultural patterns of local communities. Furthermore, changes in spatial use, social formation, and job differentiation have a significant effect on the socio-economic sustainability of local communities, with a coefficient of determination of 97.7%. This study recommends considering environmental, economic, and sociocultural factors followed by government decision-making for the future development of the new city area of Metro Tanjung Bunga, Makassar City.