Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

Responses of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality to future climate, land use, and emission changes: Insights from modeling across shared socioeconomic pathways

Air pollution induced by fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses a significant challenge for global air quality management. Understanding how factors such as climate change, land use and land cover change (LULCC), and changing emissions interact to impact PM2.5 remains limited. To address this gap, we employed the Community Earth System Model and examined both the individual and combined effects of these factors on global surface PM2.5 in 2010 and projected scenarios for 2050 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results reveal biomass-burning and anthropogenic emissions as the primary drivers of surface PM2.5 across all SSPs. Less polluted regions like the US and Europe are expected to experience substantial PM2.5 reduction in all future scenarios, reaching up to ~5 μg m-3 (70 %) in SSP1. However, heavily polluted regions like India and China may experience varied outcomes, with a potential decrease in SSP1 and increase under SSP3. Eastern China witness ~20 % rise in PM2.5 under SSP3, while northern India may experience ~70 % increase under same scenario. Depending on the region, climate change alone is expected to change PM2.5 up to ±5 μg m-3, while the influence of LULCC appears even weaker. The modest changes in PM2.5 attributable to LULCC and climate change are associated with aerosol chemistry and meteorological effects, including biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, SO2 oxidation, and NH4NO3 formation. Despite their comparatively minor role, LULCC and climate change can still significantly shape future air quality in specific regions, potentially counteracting the benefits of emission control initiatives. This study underscores the pivotal role of changes in anthropogenic emissions in shaping future PM2.5 across all SSP scenarios. Thus, addressing all contributing factors, with a primary focus on reducing anthropogenic emissions, is crucial for achieving sustainable reduction in surface PM2.5 levels and meeting sustainable pollution mitigation goals.

Continued Rise in Health Burden from Ambient PM2.5 in India under SSP Scenarios Until 2100 despite Decreasing Concentrations

Forecasting alterations in ambient air pollution and the consequent health implications is crucial for safeguarding public health, advancing environmental sustainability, informing economic decision making, and promoting appropriate policy and regulatory action. However, predicting such changes poses a substantial challenge, requiring accurate data, sophisticated modeling methodologies, and a meticulous evaluation of multiple drivers. In this study, we calculate premature deaths due to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in India from the 2020s (2016-2020) to the 2100s (2095-2100) under four different socioeconomic and climate scenarios (SSPs) based on four CMIP6 models. PM2.5 concentrations decreased in all SSP scenarios except for SSP3-7.0, with the lowest concentration observed in SSP1-2.6. The results indicate an upward trend in the five-year average number of deaths across all scenarios, ranging from 1.01 million in the 2020s to 4.12-5.44 million in the 2100s. Further analysis revealed that the benefits of reducing PM2.5 concentrations under all scenarios are largely mitigated by population aging and growth. These findings underscore the importance of proactive measures and an integrated approach in India to improve atmospheric quality and reduce vulnerability to aging under changing climate conditions.

A simulation and risk assessment framework for water-energy-environment nexus: A case study in the city cluster along the middle reach of the Yangtze River, China

In the Anthropocene, there is a strong interlinkage among water, energy, and the environment. The water-energy-environment nexus (WEEN) has been vigorously advocated as an emerging development paradigm and a global research agenda. Based on the nexus concept, a framework for the WEEN complex system simulation and risk assessment is developed. The three metropolitan areas of the city cluster along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (CCMRYR) are taken as the objects. Regional policies are combined with generic shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to form a localized SSPs suitable for the research region. The dynamic simulation of the WEEN complex system and the risk analysis are carried out with the combination of system dynamics models and copula functions. Results show that: There are obvious differences in water utilization, energy consumption, air pollutant emissions, and water pollutant emissions among the three metropolitan areas. The issue of high carbon intensity in the Wuhan Metropolitan Coordinating Region needs to be emphasized and solved from the perspective of optimizing the industrial structure. Adhering to current development patterns, there will be successive peaks in water utilization, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Wuhan, Dongting Lake, and Poyang Lake Metropolitan Coordinating Region by 2030, leading to high synergy risks at the systemic level, with maximum values of 0.84, 0.85, 0.62, respectively. A development path based on conservation priorities indicates that future policymaking needs to prioritize a resource-saving and pollution-control development pattern directed by technological upgrading against the backdrop of scarce natural resource endowments. The localized SSPs are a beneficial extension that enriches the narrative of regional-scale SSPs. The evolutionary trajectories and risk assessments of WEEN complex systems under different localized SSPs provide a sweeping insight into the consequences of policy decisions, thus enabling policymakers to appraise policy rationality and implement appropriate corrective measures.

The Air Pollution Human Health Burden in Different Future Scenarios That Involve the Mitigation of Near-Term Climate Forcers, Climate and Land-Use

Elevated surface concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can lead to poor air quality and detrimental impacts on human health. These pollutants are also termed Near-Term Climate Forcers (NTCFs) as they can also influence the Earth's radiative balance on timescales shorter than long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we use the Earth system model, UKESM1, to simulate the change in surface ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from different NTCF mitigation scenarios, conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are then combined with relative risk estimates and projected changes in population demographics, to estimate the mortality burden attributable to long-term exposure to ambient air pollution. Scenarios that involve the strong mitigation of air pollutant emissions yield large future benefits to human health (25%), particularly across Asia for black carbon (7%), when compared to the future reference pathway. However, if anthropogenic emissions follow the reference pathway, then impacts to human health worsen over South Asia in the short term (11%) and across Africa (20%) in the longer term. Future climate change impacts on air pollutants can offset some of the health benefits achieved by emission mitigation measures over Europe for PM2.5 and East Asia for ozone. In addition, differences in the future chemical environment over regions are important considerations for mitigation measures to achieve the largest benefit to human health. Future policy measures to mitigate climate warming need to also consider the impact on air quality and human health across different regions to achieve the maximum co-benefits.

Global PM2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has severe adverse health impacts, making it crucial to reduce PM_2.5 exposure for public health. Meteorological and emissions factors, which considerably affect the PM_2.5 concentrations in the atmosphere, vary substantially under different climate change scenarios. In this work, global PM_2.5 concentrations from 2021 to 2100 were generated by combining the deep learning technique, reanalysis data, emission data, and bias-corrected CMIP6 future climate scenario data. Based on the estimated PM_2.5 concentrations, the future premature mortality burden was assessed using the Global Exposure Mortality Model. Our results reveal that SSP3-7.0 scenario is associated with the highest PM_2.5 exposure, with a global concentration of 34.5 μg/m³ in 2100, while SSP1-2.6 scenario has the lowest exposure, with an estimated of 15.7 μg/m³ in 2100. PM_2.5-related deaths for individuals under 75 years will decrease by 16.3 and 10.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, from 2030s to 2090s. However, premature mortality for elderly individuals (>75 years) will increase, causing the contrary trends of improved air quality and increased total PM_2.5-related deaths in the four SSPs. Our results emphasize the need for stronger air pollution mitigation measures to offset the future burden posed by population age.

Substantial short- and long-term health effect due to PM2.5 and the constituents even under future emission reductions in China

Heavy pollution events of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) frequently occur in China, seriously affecting the human health. However, how meteorological factors and anthropogenic emissions affect PM_2.5 and the major constituents, as well as the subsequent health effect, remains unclear. Here, based on regional climate and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), the PM_2.5 and major constituents in China at present and mid-century under the carbon neutral scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-2.6 are simulated. Due to anthropogenic emission reduction, concentrations of PM_2.5 and the constituents decrease substantially in SSP1-2.6. The long-term exposure premature deaths at present are 2.23 million per year in mainland China, which is projected to increase by 76 % under SSP1-2.6 despite emission reduction, primarily attributable to aging which strikingly offsets the effect of air quality improvement. The number of annual premature deaths resulting from short-term exposure is 228,104 in mainland China at present, which is projected to decrease in the future. Using North China Plain as an example, we identify that among the major constituents of PM_2.5, organic carbon leads to the most short-term exposure deaths considering the largest exposure-response coefficient. Regarding the abnormally meteorological conditions, we find, relative to low relative humidity (RH) and non-stagnation, the compound events, defined as concurrence of high RH and atmospheric stagnation, exhibit an amplified role inducing larger premature deaths compared to the additive effect of the individual event of high RH and atmospheric stagnation. This nonlinear effect occurs at both present and future, but diminished in future due to emission reductions. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the long- and short-term premature deaths associated with PM_2.5 and the constituents, as well as the critical effect of extreme weather events.

Projecting future health burden associated with exposure to ambient PM2.5 and ozone in China under different climate scenarios

Projecting future air pollution and related health burdens remains challenging because of the complex interactions among future emissions, population, and climate change. In this study, we estimated the premature deaths attributed to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) from 2015 to 2100 under four socioeconomic climate scenarios based on an age-stratified assessment method. We found that PM_2.5 will decrease in all shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and O₃ will decrease in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, contributing to a decrease in premature mortality together with the declining total population in China. However, the benefits of a decline in population size and PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations over time will be largely offset by population aging, and premature death caused by PM_2.5 and O₃ will continue to rise till 2060-2080. This impact was greater for the O₃-related deaths than those for PM_2.5. Our study highlights the importance of future prevention strategies that must jointly improve air quality and susceptibility to aging.