Human Development Index Is Associated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Brazil: An Ecological Study

Country-based modelling of COVID-19 case fatality rate: A multiple regression analysis

BACKGROUND

The spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak worldwide has caused concern regarding the mortality rate caused by the infection. The determinants of mortality on a global scale cannot be fully understood due to lack of information.

AIM

To identify key factors that may explain the variability in case lethality across countries.

METHODS

We identified 21 Potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case fatality rate for all the countries with available data. We examined univariate relationships of each variable with case fatality rate (CFR), and all independent variables to identify candidate variables for our final multiple model. Multiple regression analysis technique was used to assess the strength of relationship.

RESULTS

The mean of COVID-19 mortality was 1.52 ± 1.72%. There was a statistically significant inverse correlation between health expenditure, and number of computed tomography scanners per 1 million with CFR, and significant direct correlation was found between literacy, and air pollution with CFR. This final model can predict approximately 97% of the changes in CFR.

CONCLUSION

The current study recommends some new predictors explaining affect mortality rate. Thus, it could help decision-makers develop health policies to fight COVID-19.

Overview of childhood vaccination coverage in Brazil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: Is our children's health at risk? A review of pre-COVID-19 periods and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction

The coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 has had a great impact on several aspects related to the population's health, including the vaccination adherence rate. This study describes how childhood vaccination coverage (CVC) in Brazil was affected by the pandemic in the period from 2020 to 2022 and explores the relationship between this data and the Human Development Index (HDI), and the number of votes received in the government with a right-wing political ideology.

Methods

An ecological analysis of CVC was carried out including 12 vaccines. The HDI was evaluated considering the HDI-General, HDI-Income, HDI-Longevity, and HDI-Education. The percentage of valid votes received by the former president (right-wing political ideology) was also obtained. Spearman correlation tests were applied to compare markers.

Results

During the period analyzed, it was observed a linear growth trend in CVC between 2015 and 2018 regarding all vaccines. However, from 2018 onwards, after the presidential elections in Brazil, the CVC reduced significantly, showing an even more pronounced decrease with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This reduction in CVC observed for some vaccines was related to the higher percentage of votes for the government with a right-wing political ideology, especially in relation to the BCG (bacillus Calmette and Guerin) and pentavalent (protecting against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, and Haemophilus influenzae type b bacteria) vaccines. In addition, when analyzing the HDI, it was observed that the lowest values of this indicator were associated with a more expressive reduction in CVC, mainly related to yellow fever, pentavalent, 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate, Human rotavirus, and triple viral (protecting against measles, mumps, and rubella - MMR) vaccines.

Conclusion

Although Brazil has a successful and exemplary record in combating several diseases, mainly due to the high rate of CVC, the continuous reduction in this coverage must be thoroughly evaluated by health managers.

Excess Mortality During 2020 in Spain: The Most Affected Population, Age, and Educational Group by the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this work was to study mortality increase in Spain during the first and second academic semesters of 2020, coinciding with the first 2 waves of the Covid-19 pandemic; by sex, age, and education.

METHODS

An observational study was carried out, using linked populations and deaths' data from 2017 to 2020. The mortality rates from all causes and leading causes other than Covid-19 during each semester of 2020, compared to the 2017-2019 averages for the same semester, was also estimated. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) and differences were used for comparison.

RESULTS

All-cause mortality rates increased in 2020 compared to pre-covid, except among working-age, (25-64 years) highly-educated women. Such increases were larger in lower-educated people between the working age range, in both 2020 semesters, but not at other ages. In the elderly, the MMR in the first semester in women and men were respectively, 1.14, and 1.25 among lower-educated people, and 1.28 and 1.23 among highly-educated people. In the second semester, the MMR were 1.12 in both sexes among lower-educated people and 1.13 in women and 1.16 in men among highly-educated people.

CONCLUSION

Lower-educated people within working age and highly-educated people at older ages showed the greatest increase in all-cause mortality in 2020, compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Impact of Risk Factors on COVID-19 Outcomes in Unvaccinated People With Rheumatic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Pandemic Epochs Using the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry

OBJECTIVE

Approximately one third of individuals worldwide have not received a COVID-19 vaccine. Although studies have investigated risk factors linked to severe COVID-19 among unvaccinated people with rheumatic diseases (RDs), we know less about whether these factors changed as the pandemic progressed. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 in unvaccinated individuals in different pandemic epochs corresponding to major variants of concern.

METHODS

Patients with RDs and COVID-19 were entered into the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry between March 2020 and June 2022. An ordinal logistic regression model (not hospitalized, hospitalized, and death) was used with date of COVID-19 diagnosis, age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, comorbidities, RD activity, medications, and the human development index (HDI) as covariates. The main analysis included all unvaccinated patients across COVID-19 pandemic epochs; subanalyses stratified patients according to RD types.

RESULTS

Among 19,256 unvaccinated people with RDs and COVID-19, those who were older, male, had more comorbidities, used glucocorticoids, had higher disease activity, or lived in lower HDI regions had worse outcomes across epochs. For those with rheumatoid arthritis, sulfasalazine and B-cell-depleting therapy were associated with worse outcomes, and tumor necrosis factor inhibitors were associated with improved outcomes. In those with connective tissue disease or vasculitis, B-cell-depleting therapy was associated with worse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes were similar throughout pandemic epochs in unvaccinated people with RDs. Ongoing efforts, including vaccination, are needed to reduce COVID-19 severity in this population, particularly in those with medical and social vulnerabilities identified in this study.

COVID-19 in Brazil: a 3-year update

Three years into the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic and the world is still struggling with the aftermath of this global health crisis. In Brazil, we are witnessing serious economic, health, social, and political problems. The rapid spread of the virus in our country was the result of a shortage of vaccines and the lack of an effective national campaign to identify and report cases. This health crisis also intensified social inequalities, hitting Indigenous peoples hard due to the lack of access to health services. In addition, rising unemployment and overcrowding of the health system made contagion possible, especially among the most vulnerable, increasing the number of serious cases of the disease. It is important to highlight that emotional problems worsened, the educational system was severely affected, and domestic violence increased during the confinement period, in addition to the fact that the pandemic exposed the great disparities of regional inequalities that exist across the country, mainly concerning health management.

COVID-19 and human development: An approach for classification of HDI with deep CNN

The measures taken during the pandemic have had lasting effects on people's lives and perceptions of the ability of national and multilateral institutions to drive human development. Policies that changed people's behavior were at the heart of containing the spread of the virus. As a result, it has become a systemic human development crisis affecting health, the economy, education, social life, and accumulated gains. This study shows how the relationship of the Human Development Index (HDI), which has combined effects on health, education, and the economy, should be considered in the context of pandemic factors. First, COVID-19 data of the countries received from a public and credible source were extracted and organized into an acceptable structure. Then, we applied statistical feature selection to determine which variables are closely related to HDI and enabled the Deep Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN) model to give more accurate results. The Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and scalogram methods were used for the time-series data visualization. Three different images of each country are combined into a single image to penetrate each other for ease of processing. These images were made suitable for the input of the ResNet-50 network, which is a pre-trained DCNN model, by going through various preprocessing processes. After the training and validation processes, the feature vectors in the fc1000 layer of the network were drawn and given to the Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVMC) input. We achieved total performance metrics of specificity (88.2%), sensitivity (96.5%), precision (99%), F1 Score (94.9%) and MCC (85.9%).

Cystic Fibrosis: A Descriptive Analysis of Deaths in a Two-Decade Period in Brazil According to Age, Race, and Sex

The diagnosis of cystic fibrosis has improved in the last few years due to greater access to diagnostic tools and the evolution of molecular biology; the knowledge obtained has contributed to the understanding of its death profile. In this context, an epidemiological study was developed focusing on deaths from cystic fibrosis in Brazil from 1996 to 2019. The data were collected from the Data-SUS (Unified National Health System Information Technology Department from Brazil). The epidemiological analysis included patients' age groups, racial groups, and sex. In our data, between 1996 and 2019, Σ3050 deaths were recorded, totaling a ≅330% increase in the number of deaths resulting from cystic fibrosis. This fact might be related to a better diagnosis of the disease, mainly in patients from racial groups that are not commonly associated with cystic fibrosis, such as Black individuals, Hispanic or Latino (mixed individuals/Pardos) individuals, and American Indians (Indigenous peoples from Brazil). Regarding of race, the Σ of deaths was: nine (0.3%) in the American Indian group, 12 (0.4%) in the Asian group, 99 (3.6%) in the Black or African American group, 787 (28.6%) in the Hispanic or Latino group, and 1843 (67.0%) in the White group. The White group showed the highest prevalence of deaths, and the increase in mortality was ≅150 times in this group, while, in the Hispanic or Latino group, it was ≅75 times. Regarding sex, the numbers and percentage of deaths of both male (N = 1492; 48.9%) and female (N = 1557; 51.1%) patients were seen to be relatively close. As for age groups, the >60-year-old group presented the most significant results, with an increase of ≅60 times in the registered deaths. In conclusion, in Brazil, despite the number of deaths from cystic fibrosis being prevalent in the White group, it increased in all racial groups (Hispanic or Latino, Black or African American, American Indian, or Asian individuals) and was associated with older age.

The relationship between maternal death due to COVID-19 and the human development index in East Java, Indonesia

Background

Maternal mortality rates and human development indexes can reflect a country's quality of health services. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these two achievement indicators are predicted to experience significant changes, and both have an interrelated relationship.

Objectives

To find the relationship between maternal death due to COVID-19 and the Human Development Index (HDI) in East Java, Indonesia.

Design and methods

A cross-sectional analytic study was carried out by processing secondary data from the provincial department of health regarding maternal mortality due to COVID-19 in East Java in 2020 and the HDI data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency. After that, the data were analyzed statistically using SPSS Statistics.

Results

The number of maternal deaths due to East Java's COVID-19 during 2020 was 793 out of 1280. Furthermore, the HDI reached 2744.6, the first dimension contains life expectancy reaching 2725.3, and the number of health workers 100,021. In the second dimension, the literacy rate reaches 3482.9, and the average length of schooling is 134,341. Moreover, the last dimension contains a total population density of 40,878,789, and a poverty rate of 4572.7. Statistical analysis results show a positive relationship between maternal mortality due to COVID-19 and HDI, with a p-value of 0.008.

Conclusion

There is a significant relationship between maternal mortality due to COVID-19 and HDI. However, the link between maternal mortality and COVID-19 related to the detailed dimensions contained in the HDI is not statistically related.

Profile of coronavirus disease enlightened asthma as a protective factor against death: An epidemiology study from Brazil during the pandemic

INTRODUCTION

The possibility that asthma is not a risk factor for the worst outcomes due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is encouraged. The increase in Th2 response dominance can downregulate the late phase of hyperinflammation, which is typically the hallmark of more severe respiratory viral infections, alongside lower angiotensin-converting enzyme receptors in patients with asthma due to chronic inflammation. Few studies associated asthma diagnosis and COVID-19 outcomes. In this context, we aimed to associate the asthma phenotype with the clinical signs, disease progression, and outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed an epidemiologic study using patients' characteristics from OpenDataSUS to verify the severity of COVID-19 among Brazilian hospitalized patients with and without the asthma phenotype according to the need for intensive care units, intubation, and deaths. We also evaluated the demographic data (sex, age, place of residence, educational level, and race), the profile of clinical signs, and the comorbidities.

RESULTS

Asthma was present in 43,245/1,129,838 (3.8%) patients. Among the patients with asthma, 74.7% who required invasive ventilatory support evolved to death. In contrast, 78.0% of non-asthmatic patients who required invasive ventilatory support died (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.79-0.88). Also, 20.0% of the patients with asthma that required non-invasive ventilatory support evolved to death, while 23.5% of non-asthmatic patients evolved to death (OR = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.79-0.84). Finally, only 11.2% of the patients with asthma who did not require any ventilatory support evolved to death, while 15.8% of non-asthmatic patients evolved to death (OR = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.62-0.72). In our multivariate analysis, one comorbidity and one clinical characteristic stood out as protective factors against death during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Patients with asthma were less prone to die than other patients (OR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.73-0.85), just like puerperal patients (OR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.56-0.97) compared to other patients.

CONCLUSION

Asthma was a protective factor for death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Brazil. Despite the study's limitations on patients' asthma phenotype information and corticosteroid usage, this study brings to light information regarding a prevalent condition that was considered a risk factor for death in COVID-19, being ultimately protective.

Characterization of demographic data, clinical signs, comorbidities, and outcomes according to the race in hospitalized individuals with COVID-19 in Brazil: An observational study

Background

Brazil is a multiracial country with five major official races: White, Black, individuals with multiracial backgrounds, Asian, and Indigenous. Brazil is also one of the epicentres of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID)-19 pandemic. Thus, we evaluated how the races of the Brazilian population contribute to the outcomes in hospitalized individuals with COVID-19, and we also described the clinical profile of the five official Brazilian races.

Methods

We performed an epidemiological analysis for the first 67 epidemiological weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil (from February 22, 2020, to April 04, 2021) using the data available at OpenDataSUS of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, a data set containing data from Brazilian hospitalized individuals. We evaluated more than 30 characteristics, including demographic data, clinical symptoms, comorbidities, need for intensive care unit and mechanical ventilation, and outcomes.

Results

In our data, 585 655 hospitalized individuals with a positive result in SARS-CoV-2 real-time chain reaction (RT-PCR) were included. Of these total, 309 646 (52.9%) identified as White, 31 872 (5.4%) identified as Black, 7108 (1.2%) identified as Asian, 235 108 (40.1%) identified as individuals with multiracial background, and 1921 (0.3%) identified as Indigenous. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that race was significative to predict the death being that Black (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.39-1.48), individuals with multiracial background (OR = 1.36; 95% CI = 1.34-1.38), and Indigenous (OR = 1.91; 95% CI = 1.70-2.15) races were more prone to die compared to the White race. The Asian individuals did not have a higher chance of dying due to SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to White individuals (OR = 0.99; 95% CI = 0.94-1.06). In addition, other characteristics contributed as such as being male (OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.16-1.19), age (mainly, +85 years old – OR = 23.02; 95% CI = 20.05-26.42) compared to 1-year-old individuals, living in rural areas (OR = 1.22; 95% CI = 1.18-1.26) or in peri-urban places (OR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.11-1.40), and the presence of nosocomial infection (OR = 1.91; 95% CI = 1.82-2.01). Among the clinical symptoms, the main predictors were dyspnoea (OR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.23-1.28), respiratory discomfort (OR = 1.30; 95% CI = 1.28-1.32), oxygen saturation <95% (OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.38-1.43). Also, among the comorbidities, the main predictors were the presence of immunosuppressive disorder (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.39-1.49), neurological disorder (OR = 1.21; 95% CI = 1.17-1.25), hepatic disorder (OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.34-1.50), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.37-1.42), cardiopathy (OR = 1.13; 95%CI = 1.11-1.14), hematologic disorder (OR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.24-1.43), Down syndrome (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.43-1.81), renal disease (OR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.11-1.18), and obesity (OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.15-1.21). Individuals on intensive care unit (OR = 2.25; 95% CI = 2.22-2.29) and on invasive (OR = 10.92; 95% CI = 10.66-11.18) or non-invasive (OR = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.30-1.35) mechanical ventilation were more prone to die.

Conclusions

Alongside several clinical symptoms and comorbidities, we associated race with an enhanced risk of death in Black individuals, individuals with multiracial backgrounds, and Indigenous peoples.

Clinical characteristics and comorbidities of COVID-19 in unvaccinated patients with Down syndrome: first year report in Brazil

Patients with Down syndrome (DS) are more affected by the Coronavirus Disease (COVID)-19 pandemic when compared with other populations. Therefore, the primary aim of our study was to report the death (case fatality rate) from SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazilian hospitalized patients with DS from 03 January 2020 to 04 April 2021. The secondary objectives were (i) to compare the features of patients with DS and positive for COVID-19 (G1) to those with DS and with a severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from other etiological factors (G2) to tease apart the unique influence of COVID-19, and (ii) to compare the features of patients with DS and positive for COVID-19 to those without DS, but positive for COVID-19 (G3) to tease apart the unique influence of DS. We obtained the markers for demographic profile, clinical symptoms, comorbidities, and the clinical features for SARI evolution during hospitalization in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil from a Brazilian open-access database. The data were compared between (i) G1 [1619 (0.4%) patients] and G2 [1431 (0.4%) patients]; and between (ii) G1 and G3 [222,181 (64.8%) patients]. The case fatality rate was higher in patients with DS and COVID-19 (G1: 39.2%), followed by individuals from G2 (18.1%) and G3 (14.0%). Patients from G1, when compared to G2, were older (≥ 25 years of age), presented more clinical symptoms related to severe illness and comorbidities, needed intensive care unit (ICU) treatment and non-invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) more frequently, and presented a nearly two fold-increased chance of death (OR = 2.92 [95% CI 2.44–3.50]). Patients from G1, when compared to G3, were younger (< 24 years of age), more prone to nosocomial infection, presented an increased chance for clinical symptoms related to a more severe illness; frequently needed ICU treatment, and invasive and non-invasive MV, and raised almost a three fold-increased chance of death (OR = 3.96 [95% CI 3.60–4.41]). The high case fatality rate in G1 was associated with older age (≥ 25 years of age), presence of clinical symptoms, and comorbidities, such as obesity, related to a more severe clinical condition. Unvaccinated patients with DS affected by COVID-19 had a high case fatality rate, and these patients had a different profile for comorbidities, clinical symptoms, and treatment (such as the need for ICU and MV) when compared with other study populations.