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Liu J, Ye Z, Christensen JH, Dong S, Geels C, Brandt J, Nenes A, Yuan Y, Im U. Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM 2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 918:170638. [PMID: 38316299 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 01/29/2024] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
Abstract
Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESM_SSP2-4.5_CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 (0.8 nmolmin-1m-3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 % (67 %) lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 %) from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 %. Crucially, once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 % and 85 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiemei Liu
- Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin 150001, China; Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Zhuyun Ye
- Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Jesper H Christensen
- Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Shikui Dong
- Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin 150001, China
| | - Camilla Geels
- Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Jørgen Brandt
- Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Athanasios Nenes
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and Their Impacts, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland; Center for the Study of Air Quality and Climate Change, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH), Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Yuan Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin 150001, China.
| | - Ulas Im
- Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark.
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