NEWS2 is Superior to qSOFA in Detecting Sepsis with Organ Dysfunction in the Emergency Department

Combining host immune response biomarkers and clinical scores for early prediction of sepsis in infection patients

BACKGROUND

The performance of host immune responses biomarkers and clinical scores was compared to identify infection patient populations at risk of progression to sepsis, ICU admission and mortality.

METHODS

Immune response biomarkers were measured and NEWS, SIRS, and MEWS. Logistic and Cox regression models were employed to evaluate the strength of association.

RESULTS

IL-10 and NEWS had the strongest association with sepsis development, whereas IL-6 and CRP had the strongest association with ICU admission and in-hospital mortality. IL-6 [HR (95%CI) = 2.68 (1.61-4.46)] was associated with 28-day mortality. Patient subgroups with high IL-10 (≥ 5.03 pg/ml) and high NEWS (> 5 points) values had significantly higher rates of sepsis development (88.3% vs 61.1%; p < 0.001), in-hospital mortality (35.0% vs. 16.7%; p < 0.001), 28-day mortality (25.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001), and ICU admission (66.7% vs. 38.9%; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients exhibiting low severity signs of infection but high IL-10 levels showed an elevated probability of developing sepsis. Combining IL-10 with the NEWS score provides a reliable tool for predicting the progression from infection to sepsis at an early stage. Utilizing IL-6 in the emergency room can help identify patients with low NEWS or SIRS scores.

Predictive usefulness of qSOFA, NEWS and GYM scores in the elderly patient: EDEN-5 study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the prognostic accuracy of the scores NEWS, qSOFA, GYM used in hospital emergency department (ED) in the assessment of elderly patients who consult for an infectious disease.

METHODS

Data from the EDEN (Emergency Department and Elderly Need) cohort were used. This retrospective cohort included all patients aged ≥65 years seen in 52 Spanish EDs during two weeks (from 1-4-2019 to 7-4-2019 and 30/3/2020 to 5/4/2020) with an infectious disease diagnosis in the emergency department. Demographic variables, demographic variables, comorbidities, Charlson and Barthel index and needed scores parameters were recorded. The predictive capacity for 30-day mortality of each scale was estimated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated for different cut-off points. The primary outcome variable was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

6054 patients were analyzed. Median age was 80 years (IQR 73-87) and 45.3% women. 993 (16,4%) patients died. NEWS score had better AUC than qSOFA (0.765, 95CI: 0.725-0.806, versus 0.700, 95%CI: 0.653-0.746; P < .001) and GYM (0.716, 95%CI: 0.675-0.758; P = .024), and there was no difference between qSOFA and GYM (P = .345). The highest sensitivity scores for 30-day mortality were GYM ≥ 1 point (85.4%) while the qSOFA score ≥2 points showed high specificity. In the case of the NEWS scale, the cut-off point ≥4 showed high sensitivity, while the cut-off point NEWS ≥ 8 showed high specificity.

CONCLUSION

NEWS score showed the highest predictive capacity for 30-day mortality. GYM score ≥1 showed a great sensitivity, while qSOFA ≥2 scores provide the highest specificity but lower sensitivity.

Evaluation of Physiological Variables Determining Time-to-Mortality after Stroke-Associated Pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) frequently complicates stroke and is associated with significant mortality. Clinicians often use physiological variables within the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) when diagnosing and prescribing antibiotics for SAP, but little is known of its association with mortality. We investigated the relationship of the NEWS 2 score and its components (respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, oxygen requirement, oxygen saturation, and alertness level) prior to antibiotic initiation, with time-to-mortality in SAP.

METHODS

We included patients with SAP (n = 389) from a single hyperacute stroke unit. Diagnosis of SAP was made if pneumonia occurred within 7 days of hospital admission. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated to assess NEWS 2 parameters influencing survival at pre-defined time periods (1 year and 5 years). The association of these parameters on time-to-mortality were analysed using multivariable Cox-regression models to account for a set of pre-specified potential confounders.

RESULTS

The median age was 80 years (71-87 years) and median NIHSS was 7 (IQR 4-17). Mortality within 1 year was 52.4% and 65.8% within 5 years. In the multivariable analyses, time-to-mortality was independently associated with respiratory rate (heart rate [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.01-1.08, p = 0.009) and total NEWS 2 score (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with SAP, higher respiratory rate and total NEWS 2 score prior to antibiotic initiation were independently associated with time-to-mortality. Further studies are warranted to identify potential opportunities for intervention and ultimately guide treatment to improve outcomes in SAP patients.

NEWS2, S/F-ratio and ROX-index at emergency department for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients: An external validation study

BACKGROUND

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the early and accurate identification of patients at risk of deterioration was crucial in overcrowded and resource-limited emergency departments. This study conducts an external validation for the evaluation of the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), the S/F ratio, and the ROX index at ED admission in a large cohort of COVID-19 patients from Colombia, South America, assessing the net clinical benefit with decision curve analysis.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted on 6907 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary care ED in Colombia. The study evaluated the diagnostic performance of NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index scores at ED admission using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis for the prediction of intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

We included 6907 patients who presented to the ED with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 2020 to November 2021. Mean age was 51 (35-65) years and 50.4% of patients were males. The rate of intensive care unit admission was 28%, and in-hospital death was 9.8%. All three scores have good discriminatory performance for the three outcomes based on the AUROC. S/F ratio showed miscalibration at low predicted probabilities and decision curve analysis indicated that the NEWS2 score provided a greater net benefit compared to other scores across at a 10% threshold to decide ED admission at a high-level of care facility.

CONCLUSIONS

The NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index at ED admission have good discriminatory performances in COVID-19 patients for the prediction of adverse outcomes, but the NEWS2 score has a higher net benefit underscoring its clinical utility in optimizing patient management and resource allocation in emergency settings.

Real-time machine learning-assisted sepsis alert enhances the timeliness of antibiotic administration and diagnostic accuracy in emergency department patients with sepsis: a cluster-randomized trial

Machine learning (ML) has been applied in sepsis recognition across different healthcare settings with outstanding diagnostic accuracy. However, the advantage of ML-assisted sepsis alert in expediting clinical decisions leading to enhanced quality for emergency department (ED) patients remains unclear. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted in a tertiary-care hospital. Adult patient data were subjected to an ML model for sepsis alert. Patient visits were assigned into one of two groups. In the intervention cluster, staff received alerts on a display screen if patients met the ML threshold for sepsis diagnosis, while patients in the control cluster followed the regular alert process. The study compared triage-to-antibiotic (TTA) time, length of stay, and mortality rate between the two groups. Additionally, the diagnostic performance of the ML model was assessed. A total of 256 (intervention) and 318 (control) sepsis patients were analyzed. The proportions of patients who received antibiotics within 1 and 3 h were higher in the intervention group than in the control group (in 1 h; 68.4 vs. 60.1%, respectively; P = 0.04, in 3 h; 94.5 vs. 89.0%, respectively; P = 0.02). The median TTA times were marginally shorter in the intervention group (46 vs. 50 min). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of ML in early sepsis identification was significantly higher than qSOFA, SIRS, and MEWS. The ML-assisted sepsis alert system may help sepsis ED patients receive antibiotics more rapidly than with the conventional, human-dedicated alert process. The diagnostic performance of ML in prompt sepsis detection was superior to that of the rule-based system.Trial registration Thai Clinical Trials Registry TCTR20230120001. Registered 16 January 2023-Retrospectively registered, https://www.thaiclinicaltrials.org/show/TCTR20230120001 .

Timing of antibiotic treatment identifies distinct clinical presentations among patients presenting with suspected septic shock

Objective

Recent clinical guidelines for sepsis management emphasize immediate antibiotic initiation for suspected septic shock. Though hypotension is a high-risk marker of sepsis severity, prior studies have not considered the precise timing of hypotension in relation to antibiotic initiation and how clinical characteristics and outcomes may differ. Our objective was to evaluate antibiotic initiation in relation to hypotension to characterize differences in sepsis presentation and outcomes in patients with suspected septic shock.

Methods

Adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) June 2012-December 2018 diagnosed with sepsis (Sepsis-III electronic health record [EHR] criteria) and hypotension (non-resolving for ≥30 min, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg) within 24 h. We categorized patients who received antibiotics before hypotension ("early"), 0-60 min after ("immediate"), and >60 min after ("late") treatment.

Results

Among 2219 patients, 55% received early treatment, 13% immediate, and 32% late. The late subgroup often presented to the ED with hypotension (median 0 min) but received antibiotics a median of 191 min post-ED presentation. Clinical characteristics notable for this subgroup included higher prevalence of heart failure and liver disease (p < 0.05) and later onset of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria compared to early/immediate treatment subgroups (median 87 vs. 35 vs. 20 min, p < 0.0001). After adjustment, there was no difference in clinical outcomes among treatment subgroups.

Conclusions

There was significant heterogeneity in presentation and timing of antibiotic initiation for suspected septic shock. Patients with later treatment commonly had hypotension on presentation, had more hypotension-associated comorbidities, and developed overt markers of infection (eg, SIRS) later. While these factors likely contribute to delays in clinician recognition of suspected septic shock, it may not impact sepsis outcomes.

Utilizing the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to confirm the impact of emergency department management in sepsis patients: a cohort study from taiwan 1998-2020

BACKGROUND

Most sepsis patients could potentially experience advantageous outcomes from targeted medical intervention, such as fluid resuscitation, antibiotic administration, respiratory support, and nursing care, promptly upon arrival at the emergency department (ED). Several scoring systems have been devised to predict hospital outcomes in sepsis patients, including the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. In contrast to prior research, our study introduces the novel approach of utilizing the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) as a means of assessing treatment efficacy and disease progression during an ED stay for sepsis.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the sepsis prognosis and effectiveness of treatment administered during ED admission in reducing overall hospital mortality rates resulting from sepsis, as measured by the NEWS2.

METHODS

The present investigation was conducted at a medical center from 1997 to 2020. The NEWS2 was calculated for patients with sepsis who were admitted to the ED in a consecutive manner. The computation was based on the initial and final parameters that were obtained during their stay in the ED. The alteration in the NEWS2 from the initial to the final measurements was utilized to evaluate the benefit of ED management to the hospital outcome of sepsis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed, encompassing all clinically significant variables, to evaluate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for total hospital mortality in sepsis patients with reduced severity, measured by NEWS2 score difference, with a 95% confidence interval (adjusted HR with 95% CI). The study employed Kaplan-Meier analysis with a Log-rank test to assess variations in overall hospital mortality rates between two groups: the "improvement (reduced NEWS2)" and "non-improvement (no change or increased NEWS2)" groups.

RESULTS

The present investigation recruited a cohort of 11,011 individuals who experienced the first occurrence of sepsis as the primary diagnosis while hospitalized. The mean age of the improvement and non-improvement groups were 69.57 (± 16.19) and 68.82 (± 16.63) years, respectively. The mean SOFA score of the improvement and non-improvement groups were of no remarkable difference, 9.7 (± 3.39) and 9.8 (± 3.38) years, respectively. The total hospital mortality for sepsis was 42.92% (4,727/11,011). Following treatment by the prevailing guidelines at that time, a total of 5,598 out of 11,011 patients (50.88%) demonstrated improvement in the NEWS2, while the remaining 5,403 patients (49.12%) did not. The improvement group had a total hospital mortality rate of 38.51%, while the non-improvement group had a higher rate of 47.58%. The non-improvement group exhibited a lower prevalence of comorbidities such as congestive heart failure, cerebral vascular disease, and renal disease. The non-improvement group exhibited a lower Charlson comorbidity index score [4.73 (± 3.34)] compared to the improvement group [4.82 (± 3.38)] The group that underwent improvement exhibited a comparatively lower incidence of septic shock development in contrast to the non-improvement group (51.13% versus 54.34%, P < 0.001). The improvement group saw a total of 2,150 patients, which represents 38.41% of the overall sample size of 5,598, transition from the higher-risk to the medium-risk category. A total of 2,741 individuals, representing 48.96% of the sample size of 5,598 patients, exhibited a reduction in severity score only without risk category alteration. Out of the 5,403 patients (the non-improvement group) included in the study, 78.57% (4,245) demonstrated no alteration in the NEWS2. Conversely, 21.43% (1,158) of patients exhibited an escalation in severity score. The Cox regression analysis demonstrated that the implementation of interventions aimed at reducing the NEWS2 during a patient's stay in the ED had a significant positive impact on the outcome, as evidenced by the adjusted HRs of 0.889 (95% CI = 0.808, 0.978) and 0.891 (95% CI = 0.810, 0.981), respectively. The results obtained from the Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the survival rate of the improvement group was significantly higher than that of the non-improvement group (P < 0.001) in the hospitalization period.

CONCLUSION

The present study demonstrated that 50.88% of sepsis patients obtained improvement in ED, ascertained by means of the NEWS2 scoring system. The practical dynamics of NEWS2 could be utilized to depict such intricacies clearly. The findings also literally supported the importance of ED management in the comprehensive course of sepsis treatment in reducing the total hospital mortality rate.

Early sepsis care with the National Early Warning Score 2-guided Sepsis Hour-1 Bundle in the emergency department: hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation pilot stepped wedge randomised controlled trial (NEWS-1 TRIPS) protocol

INTRODUCTION

Early sepsis treatment in the emergency department (ED) is crucial to improve patient survival. Despite international promulgation, the uptake of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) Hour-1 Bundle (lactate measurement, blood culture, broad-spectrum antibiotics, 30 mL/kg crystalloid for hypotension/lactate ≥4 mmol/L and vasopressors for hypotension during/after fluid resuscitation within 1 hour of sepsis recognition) is low across healthcare settings. Delays in sepsis recognition and a lack of high-quality evidence hinder its implementation. We propose a novel sepsis care model (National Early Warning Score, NEWS-1 care), in which the SSC Hour-1 Bundle is triggered objectively by a high NEWS-2 (≥5). This study aims to determine the feasibility of a full-scale type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial on the NEWS-1 care in multiple EDs.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a pilot type 1 hybrid trial and prospectively recruit 200 patients from 4 public EDs in Hong Kong cluster randomised in a stepped wedge design over 10 months. All study sites will start with an initial period of standard care and switch in random order at 2-month intervals to the NEWS-1 care unidirectionally. The implementation evaluation will employ mixed methods guided by the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance framework, which includes qualitative and quantitative data from focus group interviews, staff survey and clinical record reviews. We will analyse the 14 feasibility outcomes as progression criteria to a full-scale trial, including trial acceptability to patients and staff, patient and staff recruitment rates, accuracy of sepsis screening, protocol adherence, accessibility to follow-up data, safety and preliminary clinical impacts of the NEWS1 care, using descriptive statistics.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The institutional review boards of all study sites approved this study. This study will establish the feasibility of a full-scale hybrid trial. We will disseminate the findings through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and educational activities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05731349.

Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores (EWSs) and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was sepsis (Sepsis-3 definition) within 48 h of ED presentation. Using c-statistics and the DeLong test, we compared 11 EWSs, including the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), Modified Early Warning Score, and Worthing Physiological Scoring System (WPS), etc., and three shock indices (the shock index [SI], modified shock index [MSI], and diastolic shock index [DSI]), with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) in predicting the primary outcome, intensive care unit admission, and mortality at different time points.

RESULTS

We analyzed 601 patients, of whom 166 (27.6%) developed sepsis. NEWS2 had the highest point estimate (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.75, 95%CI 0.70-0.79) and was significantly better than SIRS, qSOFA, other EWSs and shock indices, except WPS, at predicting the primary outcome. However, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2 ≥ 5 for the prediction of sepsis were 0.45 (95%CI 0.37-0.52) and 0.88 (95%CI 0.85-0.91), respectively. The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point.

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.

Simplified Diagnosis of Urosepsis by Emergency Ultrasound Combined with Clinical Scores and Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Urosepsis is a life-threatening medical condition due to a systemic infection that originates in the urinary tract. Early diagnosis and treatment of urosepsis are critical to reducing mortality rates and preventing complications. Our study was aimed at identifying a fast and reliable method for early urosepsis diagnosis and severity assessment by combining prognostic scores such as SOFA and NEWS with ultrasound examination and serum markers PCT and NLR.

METHODS

We performed a single-center prospective observational study in the Craiova Clinical Emergency Hospital. It initially analysed 204 patients admitted for sepsis of various origins in our hospital between June and October 2023. Those with urological conditions that were suspected to have urosepsis have been selected for the study so that finally 76 patients were included as follows: the severe cases with persistent hypotension requiring vasopressor were enrolled in the septic shock group (15 patients - 19.7%), while the rest were included in the sepsis group (61 patients - 80.3%). Mortality rate in our study was 10.5% (8/76 deaths due to sepsis).

RESULTS

Both prognostic scores SOFA and NEWS were significantly elevated in the septic shock group, as were the sepsis markers PCT and NLR. We identified a strong significant positive correlation between the NEWS and SOFA scores (r = 0.793) as well as PCT and NLR (r=0.417). Ultrasound emergency evaluation proved to be similar to CT scan in the diagnosis of urosepsis (RR = 0.944, p=0.264). ROC analysis showed similar diagnostic performance for both scores (AUC = 0.874 for SOFA and 0.791 for NEWS), PCT and NLR (AUC = 0.743 and 0.717).

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that an accurate and fast diagnosis of urosepsis and its severity may be accomplished by combining the use of simpler tools like emergency ultrasound, the NEWS score and NLR which provide a similar diagnosis performance as other more complex evaluations.

Systemic immune-inflammation index combined with quick sequential organ failure assessment score for predicting mortality in sepsis patients

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic ability of systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) combine with quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) criteria in predicting the 28-day mortality of sepsis.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, with the population comprised in whom sepsis was confirmed. Clinical and laboratory data recorded were analyzed. The score of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), SII, qSOFA were calculated. Multivariable regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Kaplan-Meier method were used to identify and compared the predictors of prognosis among SOFA, qSOFA, and the combination of SII with qSOFA.

Results

A total of 349 patients admitted from December 2020 and December 2022 were included in the cohort. 95 (27.2%) of whom had died by day 28. The SII, SOFA, and qSOFA scores were significant higher in the non-survivors than that of survivors (P < 0.05), and identified as independent predictors of sepsis mortality. The addition of SII to qSOFA shown an area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) of 0.840 (95% CI: 0.787-0.884), manifested an effective ability in predicting poor outcome than other scoring systems. The optimum cutoff for SII (>1.7668) and qSOFA (>1) represented a high risk level in 28-day mortality of sepsis, were performed and identified in Kaplan-Meier survival curves (log-rank test, HR: 6.942, 95% CI: 3.976-12.121; P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

The SII in addition to qSOFA provided an effective prognostic tool for predicting mortality in sepsis.

The Use of the Initial National Early Warning Score 2 at the Emergency Department as a Predictive Tool of In-Hospital Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

Background The diagnosis of sepsis in the emergency department (ED) is difficult due to the ambiguous nature of its expression and its non-specific symptoms. Multiple scoring tools have been utilized to detect the severity and prognosis of sepsis. This study aimed to evaluate the use of the initial National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) at the ED as a predictive tool of in-hospital mortality in hemodialysis patients. Methodology We performed a retrospective, observational study to review the records of hemodialysis patients admitted to King Abdulaziz Medical City in Riyadh with suspected sepsis from the 1st of January to the 31st of December 2019 using a convenient sampling technique. Results The results showed that NEWS-2 had a higher sensitivity in predicting sepsis compared to the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) (16.28% vs. 11.54%). However, qSOFA had a higher specificity in predicting sepsis compared to the NEWS-2 scoring system (81.16% vs. 74.14%). It was found that the NEWS-2 scoring system was more sensitive in predicting mortality compared to qSOFA (26% vs. 20%). However, qSOFA was more specific in predicting mortality compared to NEWS-2 (88.50% vs. 82.98%). Conclusions Our findings demonstrated that the initial NEWS-2 is a subpar screening tool for sepsis and in-hospital mortality in hemodialysis patients. The use of qSOFA at the time of ED presentation was found to have a relatively higher specificity in predicting sepsis and mortality when compared to NEWS-2. To assess the application of the initial NEWS-2 in the ED setting, additional research should be conducted.

Neutrophils and emergency granulopoiesis drive immune suppression and an extreme response endotype during sepsis

Sepsis arises from diverse and incompletely understood dysregulated host response processes following infection that leads to life-threatening organ dysfunction. Here we showed that neutrophils and emergency granulopoiesis drove a maladaptive response during sepsis. We generated a whole-blood single-cell multiomic atlas (272,993 cells, n = 39 individuals) of the sepsis immune response that identified populations of immunosuppressive mature and immature neutrophils. In co-culture, CD66b⁺ sepsis neutrophils inhibited proliferation and activation of CD4⁺ T cells. Single-cell multiomic mapping of circulating hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) (29,366 cells, n = 27) indicated altered granulopoiesis in patients with sepsis. These features were enriched in a patient subset with poor outcome and a specific sepsis response signature that displayed higher frequencies of IL1R2⁺ immature neutrophils, epigenetic and transcriptomic signatures of emergency granulopoiesis in HSPCs and STAT3-mediated gene regulation across different infectious etiologies and syndromes. Our findings offer potential therapeutic targets and opportunities for stratified medicine in severe infection.

The accuracy of the National Early Warning Score 2 in predicting early death in prehospital and emergency department settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Many studies have explored the accuracy of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in predicting mortality in prehospital and emergency settings, but their findings are inconsistent. Whether NEWS2 is reliable for the pre-examination and triage of patients in prehospital settings and emergency departments remains debatable. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of NEWS2 in predicting mortality in prehospital settings and emergency departments.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CNKI, Wan Fang Data, Vip Database and SinoMed from the inception of each database to January 2023. The inclusion criteria: (I) patients in the prehospital settings or emergency departments; (II) the NEWS2 for predicting 2-day mortality, 30-day mortality, and in-hospital mortality; (III) sufficient data, such as sensitivity, specificity, overall survival, and deaths, were provided for the study; (IV) the type of study was accuracy prediction study. Two authors independently extracted data, including authors, year of publication, country of origin, study design, sample size, threshold cutoff values of NEWS2, and mortality. The PROBAST was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies.

Results

Thirty studies with 185,835 participants were included. Among the 30 included studies, 13 have a high risk of bias, and 17 have a low risk of bias. The pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUC of 2-day mortality (early mortality), 30-day mortality and in-hospital mortality were 0.81 vs. 0.76 vs. 0.72 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.80), 0.81 vs. 0.69 vs. 0.78 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.93) and 0.88 vs. 0.80 vs. 0.78 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.82), respectively.

Conclusions

NEWS2 has excellent sensitivity and specificity in predicting early mortality in patients in the prehospitals setting and emergency departments. Nonetheless, it has poor performance in predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality. Our findings underpin the use of NEWS2 as a pre-examination and triage tool to predict early death in the prehospital settings and emergency departments. To improve the predictive accuracy, it should be used to monitor patients continuously rather than at a single point-in-time.

The impact of pharmacist early active consultation (PEAC) on multidrug resistance organism treatment outcomes: A prospective historically controlled study

Background and aim: Infectious disease (ID) consultation can improve multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) treatment outcomes. However, the impact of clinical pharmacists' ID consultation on MDRO therapy, especially early initiation, has not been reported. In this study, we try to explore the impact of the pharmacist early active consultation (PEAC) on MDRO patient management. Methods: We conducted a prospective historical controlled study based on PEAC in MDRO patients. The retrospective control group was patients hospitalized 18 months before the PEAC initiation, and the prospective PEAC group was patients hospitalized 18 months after the PEAC initiation. Primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were MDRO clinical outcome, duration of antibiotic use, length of stay, antibiotic consumption and antibiotic costs. Further subgroup analysis of secondary outcomes was performed by the condition at admission, MDRO pathogenicity and MDRO clinical outcome. Results: 188 MDRO patients were included. After adjusting for potential predictors, PEAC reduced the 30-day all-cause mortality by 70% (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09-0.96, p = 0.042). PEAC group had clinical improvement than control group (89.47% vs. 65.59%, p < 0.001), especially in patients with non-severe clinical conditions at admission (98.41% vs. 70.18%, p < 0.001). However, no significant differences were found between groups in length of stay, antibiotics consumption, and antibiotics costs. Conclusion: Early active pharmacy ID consultation can reduce 30-day all-cause mortality and improve clinical outcomes in MDRO patients.

National Early Warning Score 2 is superior to quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment in predicting mortality in sepsis patients presenting to the emergency department in India: A prospective observational study

Background

High in-hospital mortality in sepsis patients remains challenging for clinicians worldwide. Early recognition, prognostication, and aggressive management are essential for treating septic patients. Many scores have been formulated to guide clinicians to predict the early deterioration of such patients. Our objective was to compare predictive values of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) with respect to in-hospital mortality.

Methods

This prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care center in India. Adults with suspected infection with at least two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria presenting to the emergency department (ED) were enrolled. NEWS2 and qSOFA scores were calculated, and patients were followed until their primary outcome of mortality or hospital discharge. The diagnostic accuracy of qSOFA and NEWS2 for predicting mortality was analyzed.

Results

Three hundred and seventy-three patients were enrolled. Overall mortality was 35.12%. A majority of patients had LOS between 2 and 6 days (43.70%). NEWS2 had higher area under curve at 0.781 (95% confidence interval [CI] (0.59, 0.97)) than qSOFA at 0.729 (95% CI [0.51, 0.94]), with P < 0.001. Sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic efficiency to predict mortality by NEWS2 were 83.21% (95% CI [83.17%, 83.24%]); 57.44% (95% CI [57.39%, 57.49%]); and 66.48% (95% CI [66.43%, 66.53%]), respectively. qSOFA score had sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic efficiency to predict mortality of 77.10% (95% CI [77.06%, 77.14%]); 42.98% (95% CI [42.92%, 43.03%]); and 54.95% (95% CI [54.90%, 55.00%]), respectively.

Conclusion

NEWS2 is superior to qSOFA in predicting in-hospital mortality for sepsis patients presenting to the ED in India.

Prognostic accuracy of using lactate in addition to the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and the National Early Warning Score for emergency department patients with suspected infection

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine whether: (1) the quick Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) clinical prediction tools alone, (2) modified versions of these prediction tools that integrate lactate into their scores, or (3) use of the two tools in tandem with lactate better predicts in-hospital 28-day mortality among adult EDpatients with suspected infection.

METHODS

From 1 January through 31 December 2018, this retrospective cohort study enrolled consecutive adult patients with suspected infection evaluated at two EDs in France. Patients were included if blood cultures were obtained and non-prophylactic antibiotics were administered in the ED. qSOFA, NEWS criteria and lactate measurements were recorded when patients were clinically suspected of having an infection. Two composite scores (lactate qSOFA (LqSOFA) and lactate NEWS (LNEWS)) integrating lactate were created. Diagnostic test performances for predicting in-hospital mortality within 28days were assessed for qSOFA≥2, LqSOFA≥2, qSOFA≥2 or lactate≥2 mmol/L, and for NEWS≥7, LNEWS≥7, and NEWS≥7 or lactate≥2 mmol/L.

RESULTS

1003 patients were included, 130 (13%) of whom had died by day 28. Sensitivities for 28-day mortality were 50% (95%CI41% to 59%) for qSOFA≥2,69% (95% CI60% to 77%) for LqSOFA≥2,77% (95% CI69% to 84%) for qSOFA or lactate≥2 mmol/L; and 69% (95% CI60% to 77%) for NEWS≥7, 80% (95% CI72% to 86%) for LNEWS≥7, 87% (95% CI80% to 92%) for NEWS≥7 or lactate≥2 mmol/L.

CONCLUSION

Lactate used in tandem with qSOFA or NEWS yielded higher sensitivities in predicting in-hospital 28-day mortality, as compared with integration of lactate into these prediction tools or usage of the tools independently.

NEWS2 and improving outcomes from sepsis

The cause of deterioration is often unclear, so it is vitally important that we spot the sick and deteriorating patient from all causes. As a result, warning scores must cater for all conditions, and - where possible - be standardised across all healthcare settings. This article summarises the importance of an 'unblinkered' approach to acute illness assessment, comparing and examining the evidence for different historical scoring systems and looking at the early impact of national alignment to NEWS2 in patients admitted to hospital with suspected bacterial infections.

National Early Warning Score (NEWS) Outperforms Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure (qSOFA) Score for Early Detection of Sepsis in the Emergency Department

Background: Prompt recognition of sepsis is critical to improving patients’ outcomes. We compared the performance of NEWS and qSOFA scores as sepsis detection tools in patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) with suspicion of sepsis. Methodology: A single-center 12-month retrospective study comparing NEWS using the recommended cut-off of ≥5 and qSOFA as sepsis screening tools in a cohort of patients transported by emergency medical services (EMS) to the Lausanne University Hospital (LUH). We used the Sepsis-3 consensus definition. The primary study endpoint was the detection of sepsis. Secondary endpoints were ICU admission and 28-day all-cause mortality. Results: Among 886 patients admitted to ED by EMS for suspected infection, 556 (63%) had a complete set of vital parameters panel enabling the calculation of NEWS and qSOFA scores, of whom 300 (54%) had sepsis. For the detection of sepsis, the sensitivity of NEWS > 5 was 86% and that of qSOFA ≥ 2 was 34%. Likewise, the sensitivities of NEWS ≥ 5 for predicting ICU admission and 28-day mortality were higher than those of qSOFA ≥ 2 (82% versus 33% and 88% versus 37%). Conversely, the specificity of qSOFA ≥ 2 for sepsis detection was higher than that of NEWS ≥ 5 (90% versus 55%). The negative predictive value of NEWS > 5 was higher than that of qSOFA ≥ 2 (77% versus 54%), while the positive predictive value of qSOFA ≥ 2 was higher than that of NEWS ≥ 5 (80% versus 69%). Finally, the accuracy of NEWS ≥ 5 was higher than that of qSOFA ≥ 2 (72% versus 60%). Conclusions: The sensitivity of NEWS ≥ 5 was superior to that of qSOFA ≥ 2 to identify patients with sepsis in the ED and predict ICU admission and 28-day mortality. In contrast, qSOFA ≥ 2 had higher specificity and positive predictive values than NEWS ≥ 5 for these three endpoints.

Better prognostic ability of NEWS2, SOFA and SAPS-II in septic patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To compare the ability of qSOFA, NEWS2, SOFA, LODS, SIRS, APACHE-II and SAPS-II scores.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Analysis of in-hospital mortality of 203 patients admitted to the ICU because of sepsis. The scores were compared according to their application. Discrimination was evaluated with AUC-ROC curve and performance with the Akaike's (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC).

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 31.53%. NEWS2 showed better mortality discrimination ability and better performance considering the AIC/BIC criterion for mortality tan qSOFA (AUC-ROC=.615 and .536; P=.039). SOFA presented higher performance and AUC-ROC tan LODS (.776 vs .693; P=.01) and both showed higher discrimination ability than SIRS (AUC-ROC=.521; P<.003). Finally, SAPS-II was able to predict mortality with better performance than APACHE-II and presented higher discrimination capacity but without statistical significance compared (AUROC=.738 for SAPS-II and AUROC=.673 for APACHE-II; P=.08).

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 is a better predictor of mortality than qSOFA and its implementation for the early recognition of the septic patient or the patient with higher risk in the emergency and hospitalization wards should be addressed. In addition, given that SOFA and SAPS-II showed better performance and are simpler than LODS and APACHE-II, respectively, both should be considered the scores of choice in this setting.

National Early Warning Score and New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality or Transfer to the Intensive Care Unit in Emergency Department Patients with Suspected Bacterial Infections

Purpose

There are conflicting data regarding the role of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with infectious diseases. New-onset atrial fibrillation (NO-AF) has been suggested as a sepsis-defining sign of organ dysfunction. This study aimed to examine the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 and whether NO-AF can provide prognostic information in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected bacterial infections.

Patients and Methods

Secondary analyses of data from a prospective observational cohort study of adults admitted in a 6-month period with suspected bacterial infections. We used the composite endpoint of in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit as the primary outcome. The prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and covariate-adjusted area under the receiver operating curves (AAUROC) were used to describe the performance of the scores. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between NO-AF and the composite endpoint.

Results

A total of 2055 patients were included in this study. The composite endpoint was achieved in 198 (9.6%) patients. NO-AF was observed in 80 (3.9%) patients. The sensitivity and specificity for NEWS2 ≥5 were 70.2% (63.3-76.5) and 60.2% (57.9-62.4), respectively, and those for qSOFA ≥2 were 26.3% (20.3-33.0) and 91.0% (89.6-92.3), respectively. AAUROC for NEWS2 and qSOFA were 0.68 (0.65-0.73) and 0.63 (0.59-0.68), respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for achieving the composite endpoint in 48 patients with NO-AF who fulfilled the NEWS2 ≥5 criteria was 2.71 (1.35-5.44).

Conclusion

NEWS2 had higher sensitivity but lower specificity and better, albeit poor, discriminative ability to predict the composite endpoint compared to qSOFA. NO-AF can provide important prognostic information.

PROcalcitonin and NEWS2 evaluation for Timely identification of sepsis and Optimal use of antibiotics in the emergency department (PRONTO): protocol for a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis is a common, potentially life-threatening complication of infection. The optimal treatment for sepsis includes prompt antibiotics and intravenous fluids, facilitated by its early and accurate recognition. Currently, clinicians identify and assess severity of suspected sepsis using validated clinical scoring systems. In England, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) has been mandated across all National Health Service (NHS) trusts and ambulance organisations. Like many clinical scoring systems, NEWS2 should not be used without clinical judgement to determine either the level of acuity or a diagnosis. Despite this, there is a tendency to overemphasise the score in isolation in patients with suspected infection, leading to the overprescription of antibiotics and potentially treatment-related complications and rising antimicrobial resistance. The biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) has been shown to be useful in specific circumstances to support appropriate antibiotics prescribing by identifying bacterial infection. PCT is not routinely used in the care of undifferentiated patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs), and the evidence base of its optimal usage is poor. The PROcalcitonin and NEWS2 evaluation for Timely identification of sepsis and Optimal (PRONTO) study is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in adults with suspected sepsis presenting to the ED to compare standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring plus PCT-guided risk assessment with standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring alone and compare if this approach reduces prescriptions of antibiotics without increasing mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PRONTO is a parallel two-arm open-label individually RCT set in up to 20 NHS EDs in the UK with a target sample size of 7676 participants. Participants will be randomised in a ratio of 1:1 to standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring or standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring plus PCT-guided risk assessment. We will compare whether the addition of PCT measurement to NEWS2 scoring can lead to a reduction in intravenous antibiotic initiation in ED patients managed as suspected sepsis, with at least no increase in 28-day mortality compared with NEWS2 scoring alone (in conjunction with local standard care pathways). PRONTO has two coprimary endpoints: initiation of intravenous antibiotics at 3 hours (superiority comparison) and 28-day mortality (non-inferiority comparison). The study has an internal pilot phase and group-sequential stopping rules for effectiveness and futility/safety, as well as a qualitative substudy and a health economic evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial protocol was approved by the Health Research Authority (HRA) and NHS Research Ethics Committee (Wales REC 2, reference 20/WA/0058). In England and Wales, the law allows the use of deferred consent in approved research situations (including ED studies) where the time dependent nature of intervention would not allow true informed consent to be obtained. PRONTO has approval for a deferred consent process to be used. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN54006056.

The Ramathibodi early warning score as a sepsis screening tool does not reduce the timing of antibiotic administration

Background

Administration of antibiotics to septic patients within 1 h was recommended in 2018 by the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) as a strategy to improve survival outcomes. The use of sepsis screening tools in emergency departments (EDs) is important for early diagnosis and initiation of sepsis care. This study aimed to assess the impact of the Ramathibodi early warning score (REWs) on the administration of antibiotics within 1 h of presentation.

Methods

This was an observational retrospective cohort study with propensity score matching between the sepsis-3 criteria (pre-period) and the REWs (post-period) as screening tools in adult patients with sepsis in EDs. The primary outcome was the proportion of receiving antibiotics within 1 h of presentation in the pre- and post-periods.

Results

A total of 476 patients were analyzed without propensity matching. The proportion of antibiotic administration within 1 h was higher in patients screened using the REWs compared with standard of care in the total study population (79.5% vs. 61.4%, p < 0.001). After propensity score matching, 153 patients were included in both groups. The proportion of antibiotic administration within 1 h was similar in patients screened using the REWs and those receiving standard of care (79.7% vs. 80.4%, p = 0.886). However, time to intensive care unit (ICU) admission was faster in patients screened using the REWs. Delays in receiving antibiotics of longer than 3 h were associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 7.04, 95% confidence interval 1.45 to 34.11, p = 0.015).

Conclusions

Implementing the REWs as a tool in sepsis screening protocols in EDs did not improve rates of antibiotic administration within 1 h as recommended by the SSC. However, time to ICU admission was improved after implementation of the REWs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12245-022-00420-w.

The Potential Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Impact of Using a Machine Learning Algorithm for Early Detection of Sepsis in Intensive Care Units in Sweden

Background: Early diagnosis of sepsis has been shown to reduce treatment delays, increase appropriate care, and reduce mortality. The sepsis machine learning algorithm NAVOY® Sepsis, based on variables routinely collected at intensive care units (ICUs), has shown excellent predictive properties. However, the economic consequences of forecasting the onset of sepsis are unknown. Objectives: The potential cost and cost-effectiveness impact of a machine learning algorithm forecasting the onset of sepsis was estimated in an ICU setting. Methods: A health economic model has been developed to capture short-term and long-term consequences of sepsis. The model is based on findings from a randomized, prospective clinical evaluation of NAVOY® Sepsis and from literature sources. Modeling the relationship between time from sepsis onset to treatment and prevalence of septic shock and in-hospital mortality were of particular interest. The model base case assumes that the time to treatment coincides with the time to detection and that the algorithm predicts sepsis 3 hours prior to onset. Total costs include the costs of the prediction algorithm, days spent at the ICU and hospital ward, and long-term consequences. Costs are estimated for an average patient admitted to the ICU and for the healthcare system. The reference method is sepsis diagnosis in accordance with clinical practice. Results: In Sweden, the total cost per patient amounts to €16 436 and €16 512 for the algorithm and current practice arms, respectively, implying a potential cost saving per patient of €76. The largest cost saving is for the ICU stay, which is reduced by 0.16 days per patient (5860 ICU days for the healthcare sector) resulting in a cost saving of €1009 per ICU patient. Stochastic scenario analysis showed that NAVOY® Sepsis was a dominant treatment option in most scenarios and well below an established threshold of €20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. A 3-hour faster detection implies a reduction in in-hospital mortality, resulting in 356 lives saved per year. Conclusions: A sepsis prediction algorithm such as NAVOY® Sepsis reduces the cost per ICU patient and will potentially have a substantial cost-saving and life-saving impact for ICU departments and the healthcare system.

Combination of Prehospital NT-proBNP with qSOFA and NEWS to Predict Sepsis and Sepsis-Related Mortality

Background. The aim of this study was to assess the role of prehospital point-of-care N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide to predict sepsis, septic shock, or in-hospital sepsis-related mortality. Methods. A prospective, emergency medical service-delivered, prognostic, cohort study of adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to emergency department between January 2020 and May 2021. The discriminative power of the predictive variable was assessed through a prediction model trained using the derivation cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic on the validation cohort. Results. A total of 1,360 patients were enrolled with medical disease in the study. The occurrence of sepsis, septic shock, and in-hospital sepsis-related mortality was 6.4% (67 cases), 4.2% (44 cases), and 6.1% (64 cases). Prehospital National Early Warning Score 2 had superior predictive validity than quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide for detecting sepsis and septic shock, but N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide outperformed both scores in in-hospital sepsis-related mortality estimation. Application of N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide to subgroups of the other two scores improved the identification of sepsis, septic shock, and sepsis-related mortality in the group of patients with low-risk scoring. Conclusions. The incorporation of N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide in prehospital care combined with already existing scores could improve the identification of sepsis, septic shock, and sepsis-related mortality.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor levels are predictive of COVID-19 severity in Afro-Caribbean patients

Aim: To investigate association between soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) plasma levels at admission and incidence of complications in COVID-19 patients. Patients & methods: We considered Afro-Caribbean patients (n = 64) admitted to the hospital between 1 February 2020 and 28 February 2021. Primary outcome was time from the hospital admission until intensive care unit care or death. Results: Primary outcome (hazard ratio, HR [95%CI]) was associated with higher CT scan severity score (3.18 [1.15-8.78], p = 0.025), National Early Warning Score (NEWS2; 1.43 [1.02-2.02], p = 0.041) and suPAR (1.28 [1.06-2.06], p = 0.041). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated patients with suPAR level above 8.95 ng/ml had a worse outcome (7.95 [3.33-18.97], p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our study suggests that COVID-19 patients with increased baseline suPAR levels are at a high risk of complications.

Early Warning Scores and Their Application in the Inpatient Oncology Settings

Early Warning Score (EWS) systems are tools that use alterations in vital signs to rapidly identify clinically deteriorating patients and escalate care accordingly. Since its conception in 1997, EWSs have been used in several settings, including the general inpatient ward, intensive care units, and the emergency department. Several iterations of EWSs have been developed with varying levels of sensitivity and specificity for use in different populations. There are multiple strengths of these tools, including their simplicity and their ability to standardize communication and to reduce inappropriate or delayed referrals to the intensive care unit. Although early identification of deteriorating patients in the oncology population is vital to reduce morbidity and mortality and to improve long-term prognosis, the application in the oncology setting has been limited. Patients with an oncological diagnosis are usually older, medically complex, and can have increased susceptibility to infections, end-organ damage, and death. A search using PubMed and Scopus was conducted for articles published between January 1997 and November 2020 pertaining to EWSs in the oncology setting. Seven relevant studies were identified and analyzed. The most commonly used EWS in this setting was the Modified Early Warning Score. Of the seven studies, only two included prospective validation of the EWS in the oncology population and the other five only included a retrospective assessment of the data. The majority of studies were limited by their small sample size, single-institution analysis, and retrospective nature. Future studies should assess dynamic changes in scores over time and evaluate balance measures to identify use of health care resources.

Prognostic value of diagnostic scales in community-acquired sepsis mortality at an emergency service. Prognosis in community-adquired sepsis

Objectives

To asses the prognostic value of diagnostic scales in mortality of community-adquired sepsis and added value of additional parameters.

Methods

Prospective observational study of patients with community-adquired sepsis in the Emergency Room of University Hospital. The study population were patients presented in the Emergency Room with confirmed infection and practicians sepsis diagnosis. Demographics, triage vital signs, inhaled oxygen fraction, inflammatory markers, biochemistry, all-cause mortality during hospitalization and three months after were recorded. Prognostic value of qSOFA, NEWS, SOFA, SIRS, and amplified scales were calculated by using logistic regression and ROC curves.

Results

201 patients, 54% male, average age 77±11,2 years were included. Sixty-three (31.5%) died during hospitalization and 24 (12%) three months after discharge. At the time of admission vital signs related with in-hospital mortality were Glasgow Coma Scale <13, respiratory rate ≥22 bpm, temperature, oxygen desaturation, high flow oxygen therapy and heart rate. Patients dead in-hospital had lower PaCO2, higher lactate, glucose and creatinine. Greater predictive capacity of the scales, from higher to lower, was: qSOFA, NEWS2, SOFA and SIRS. Amplified scales with lactate >2mg/dl, glucose, blood level >190mg/dl and PaCO2 <35mmHg improved predictive value.

Conclusion

Amplified-qSOFA and amplified-NEWS2 scales at Emergency Department may offer a better prognostic of septic patients mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-021-00532-1.

Using NEWS2 to triage newly admitted patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread globally and caused a major worldwide health crisis. Patients who are affected more seriously by COVID-19 usually deteriorate rapidly and need further intensive care.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) as a risk stratification tool to discriminate newly admitted patients with COVID-19 at risk of serious events.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective single-centre case-control study on 200 unselected patients consecutively admitted in March 2020 in a public general hospital in Wuhan, China.

METHODS

The following serious events were considered: mortality, unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and non-invasive ventilation treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to quantify the association between outcomes and NEWS2.

RESULTS

There were 12 patients (6.0%) who had serious events, where 7 patients (3.5%) experienced unplanned ICU admissions. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and cut-off of NEWS2 for the composite outcome were 0.83 and 3, respectively. For patients with NEWS2 ≥ 4, the odds of being at risk for serious events was 16.4 (AUROC = 0.74), while for patients with NEWS2 ≥ 7, the odds of being at risk for serious events was 18.2 (AUROC = 0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS2 has an appropriate ability to triage newly admitted patients with COVID-19 into three levels of risk: low risk (NEWS2 = 0-3), medium risk (NEWS2 = 4-6), and high risk (NEWS2 ≥ 7).

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Using NEWS2 may help nurses in early identification of at-risk COVID-19 patients and clinical nursing decision-making. Using NEWS2 to triage new patients with COVID-19 may help nurses provide more appropriate level of care and medical resources allocation for patients safety.

Prognostic scores and early management of septic patients in the emergency department of a secondary hospital: results of a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and other illness prognostic scores predict adverse outcomes in critical patients. Their validation as a decision-making tool in the emergency department (ED) of secondary hospitals is not well established. The aim of this study was to compare SOFA, NEWS2, APACHE II, and SAPS II scores as predictors of adverse outcomes and decision-making tool in ED.

METHODS

Data of 121 patients (age 73 ± 10 years, 58% males, Charlson Comorbidity Index 5.7 ± 2.1) with a confirmed sepsis were included in a retrospective study between January 2017 and February 2020. Scores were computed within the first 24 h after admission. Primary outcome was the occurrence of either in-hospital death or mechanical ventilation within 7 days. Secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Patients older than 64 years (elderly) represent 82% of sample. Primary and secondary outcomes occurred in 40 and 44%, respectively. Median 30-day survival time of dead patients was 4 days (interquartile range 1-11). The best predictive score based on the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was SAPS II (0.823, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.744-0.902), followed by APACHE II (0.762, 95% CI 0.673-0.850), NEWS2 (0.708, 95% CI 0.616-0.800), and SOFA (0.650, 95% CI 0.548-0.751). SAPS II cut-off of 49 showed the lowest false-positive rate (12, 95% CI 5-20) and the highest positive predictive value (80, 95% CI 68-92), whereas NEWS2 cut-off of 7 showed the lowest false-negative rate (10, 95% CI 2-19) and the highest negative predictive value (86, 95% CI 74-97). By combining NEWS2 and SAPS II cut-offs, we accurately classified 64% of patients. In survival analysis, SAPS II cut-off showed the highest difference in 30-day mortality (Hazards Ratio, HR, 5.24, 95% CI 2.99-9.21, P < 0.001). Best independent negative predictors of 30-day mortality were body temperature, mean arterial pressure, arterial oxygen saturation, and hematocrit levels. Positive predictors were male sex, heart rate and serum sodium concentration.

CONCLUSIONS

SAPS II is a good prognostic tool for discriminating high-risk patient suitable for sub-intensive/intensive care units, whereas NEWS2 for discriminating low-risk patients for low-intensive units. Our results should be limited to cohorts with a high prevalence of elderly or comorbidities.

Early warning scores to assess the probability of critical illness in patients with COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

Validated clinical risk scores are needed to identify patients with COVID-19 at risk of severe disease and to guide triage decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the performance of early warning scores (EWS) in the ED when identifying patients with COVID-19 who will require intensive care unit (ICU) admission for high-flow-oxygen usage or mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

Patients with a proven SARS-CoV-2 infection with complete resuscitate orders treated in nine hospitals between 27 February and 30 July 2020 needing hospital admission were included. Primary outcome was the performance of EWS in identifying patients needing ICU admission within 24 hours after ED presentation.

RESULTS

In total, 1501 patients were included. Median age was 71 (range 19-99) years and 60.3% were male. Of all patients, 86.9% were admitted to the general ward and 13.1% to the ICU within 24 hours after ED admission. ICU patients had lower peripheral oxygen saturation (86.7% vs 93.7, p≤0.001) and had a higher body mass index (29.2 vs 27.9 p=0.043) compared with non-ICU patients. National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≥ 6 and q-COVID Score were superior to all other studied clinical risk scores in predicting ICU admission with a fair area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.740 (95% CI 0.696 to 0.783) and 0.760 (95% CI 0.712 to 0.800), respectively. NEWS2 ≥6 and q-COVID Score ≥3 discriminated patients admitted to the ICU with a sensitivity of 78.1% and 75.9%, and specificity of 56.3% and 61.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this multicentre study, the best performing models to predict ICU admittance were the NEWS2 and the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index Score, with fair diagnostic performance. However, due to the moderate performance, these models cannot be clinically used to adequately predict the need for ICU admission within 24 hours in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection presenting at the ED.

Organ failure, aetiology and 7-day all-cause mortality among acute adult patients on arrival to an emergency department: a hospital-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Organ failure is both a frequent and dangerous condition among adult patients on arrival to an emergency department (ED). The risk of an unfavourable outcome could depend on the underlying aetiology. Knowledge of the relation between aetiology and prognosis could improve the risk stratification at arrival.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the relation between organ failure, aetiology and prognosis through 7-day all-cause mortality.

METHODS

An observational three-year cohort study at the ED at Odense University Hospital, Denmark, including all acute adult patients.First-measured vital signs and laboratory values were included to evaluate the presence of the following organ failures: respiratory, coagulation, hepatic, circulatory, cerebral or renal.The primary outcome was 7-day all-cause mortality. Aetiological disease categories were based on primary discharge diagnoses. We described the association between 7-day mortality, aetiology category, site of organ failures and number of patients at risk.

RESULTS

Of 40 423 patients with a first-time visit at the ED, 5883(14.6%) had an organ failure on arrival. The median age was 69 (IQR 54-80), and 50% were men. The most frequent aetiology was infection (1495, 25.4%). Seven-day all-cause mortality ranged between aetiologies from 0.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.0-14.2) allergy) to 45.6% (95% CI, 41.3-50.0) (cardiac). Combining aetiology and site of organ failure, 7-day all-cause mortality was the highest in the cardiac category, from 14.8% (95% CI, 4.2-3.7) with hepatic failure to 79.2% (95% CI, 73.6-84.1) with cerebral failure. The combination of infection and respiratory failure characterised most patients (n = 949).

CONCLUSION

Infection was the most prevalent aetiology, and 7-day all-cause mortality was highly associated with the site of organ failure and aetiology.

[Sepsis in out-of-hospital emergency medicine]

Background

Sepsis is a challenge in emergency medicine, as this life-threatening organ dysfunction, caused by a dysregulated host response to an infection, presents manifold and therefore is often recognized too late.

Objectives

Recently published surviving sepsis campaign and German S3 guidelines provide recommendations for diagnosis and therapy of sepsis in an in-hospital or intensive care setting, but do not particularly address out-of-hospital emergency medical care. We aim to work out the evidence base with regard to the out-of-hospital care of patients with suspected sepsis and to derive treatment recommendations for emergency medical services.

Conclusions

Therapy of sepsis and septic shock is summarized in bundles, whereby the first bundle should ideally be completed within the first hour-in analogy to "golden hour" concepts in other emergency medical entities, such as trauma care. In the out-of-hospital setting, therapy focuses on securing vital parameters, according to the ABCDE scheme, with a particular focus on volume therapy. Further procedures within the 1 h bundle, such as lactate measurement, obtaining microbiological samples, and starting an anti-infective therapy, are broadly available in hospital only. The aim is to control the site of infection as soon as possible. Therefore, an appropriate designated hospital should be chosen carefully and informed in advance, in order to initiate and pave the way for further clinical diagnostic and treatment paths. Moreover, structured and target-oriented handovers, as well as regular training, are required.

Improvement of sepsis identification through multi-year comparison of sepsis and early warning scores

BACKGROUND

Sepsis remains a leading cause of death among inpatients. Scoring systems designed to identify inpatients with sepsis currently have limited effectiveness. This single institution, retrospective, case-control study aims to improve sepsis decision support tool performance using temporal analyses of sepsis-specific and general deterioration scoring systems.

METHODS

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, National Early Warning Scores (NEWS), and Modified Early Warning Scores were calculated using four years of inpatient data. Sensitivity and specificity analyses compared performance of each score, calculated as a function of both various score cut-off values and time before sepsis diagnosis using established proxies for identifying clinical suspicion for sepsis.

RESULTS

NEWS had the best sensitivity-specificity performance (AUROC 82.7) when examining various score cutoffs and time intervals during which diagnosis criteria were met. Comparison of false positives/negatives with various score thresholds showed a low rate of false positives with a NEWS of 7. Score trends in the hours leading up to sepsis criteria being met showed a marked increase for the sepsis group while for the cases there was a decrease during a comparable period.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal analyses of scores for patients coded as having sepsis provides novel insights into patterns of deterioration. The methods and results provide practical details demonstrating how general deterioration algorithms can be used to alert trained responders to potential cases of sepsis to improve sepsis recognition and treatment opportunities.

Prognostic and discriminative accuracy of the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment compared with an early warning score: a Danish cohort study

BACKGROUND

The clinical benefit of implementing the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) instead of early warning scores (EWS) to screen all hospitalised patients for critical illness has yet to be investigated in a large, multicentre study.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study including all hospitalised patients ≥18 years with EWS recorded at hospitals in the Central Denmark Region during the year 2016. The primary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death within 2 days following an initial EWS. Prognostic accuracy was examined using sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Discriminative accuracy was examined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Among 97 332 evaluated patients, 1714 (1.8%) experienced the primary outcome. The qSOFA ≥2 was less sensitive (11.7% (95% CI: 10.2% to 13.3%) vs 25.1% (95% CI: 23.1% to 27.3%)) and more specific (99.3% (95% CI: 99.2% to 99.3%) vs 97.5% (95% CI: 97.4% to 97.6%)) than EWS ≥5. The NPV was similar for the two scores (EWS ≥5, 98.6% (95% CI: 98.6% to 98.7%) and qSOFA ≥2, 98.4% (95% CI: 98.3% to 98.5%)), while the PPV was 15.1% (95% CI: 13.8% to 16.5%) for EWS ≥5 and 22.4% (95% CI: 19.7% to 25.3%) for qSOFA ≥2. The AUROC was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.73) for EWS and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.67) for qSOFA.

CONCLUSION

The qSOFA was less sensitive (qSOFA ≥2 vs EWS ≥5) and discriminatively accurate than the EWS for predicting ICU admission and/or death within 2 days after an initial EWS. This study did not support replacing EWS with qSOFA in all hospitalised patients.

A Transcriptomic Severity Metric That Predicts Clinical Outcomes in Critically Ill Surgical Sepsis Patients

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Clinically deployable methods for the rapid and accurate prediction of sepsis severity that could elicit a meaningful change in clinical practice are currently lacking. We evaluated a whole-blood, multiplex host-messenger RNA expression metric, Inflammatix-Severity-2, for identifying septic, hospitalized patients’ likelihood of 30-day mortality, development of chronic critical illness, discharge disposition, and/or secondary infections.

The pathophysiology of sepsis - 2021 update: Part 2, organ dysfunction and assessment

DISCLAIMER

In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time.

PURPOSE

This is the second article in a 2-part series discussing the pathophysiology of sepsis. Part 1 of the series reviewed the immunologic response and overlapping pathways of inflammation and coagulation that contribute to the widespread organ dysfunction. In this article (part 2), major organ systems and their dysfunction in sepsis are reviewed, with discussion of scoring systems used to identify patterns and abnormal vital signs and laboratory values associated with sepsis.

SUMMARY

Sepsis is a dysregulated host response to infection that produces significant morbidity, and patients with shock due to sepsis have circulatory and cellular and metabolic abnormalities that lead to a higher mortality. Cardiovascular dysfunction produces vasodilation, reduced cardiac output and hypotension/shock requiring fluids, vasopressors, and advanced hemodynamic monitoring. Respiratory dysfunction may require mechanical ventilation and attention to volume status. Renal dysfunction is a frequent manifestation of sepsis. Hematologic dysfunction produces low platelets and either elevation or reduction of leucocytes, so consideration of the neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio may be useful. Procoagulant and antifibrinolytic activity leads to coagulation that is stimulated by inflammation. Hepatic dysfunction manifest as elevated bilirubin is often a late finding in sepsis and may cause reductions in production of essential proteins. Neurologic dysfunction may result from local endothelial injury and systemic inflammation through activity of the vagus nerve.

CONCLUSION

Timely recognition and team response with efficient use of therapies can improve patient outcome, and pharmacists with a complete understanding of the pathophysiologic mechanisms and treatments are valuable members of that team.

Performance of NEWS2, RETTS, clinical judgment and the Predict Sepsis screening tools with respect to identification of sepsis among ambulance patients with suspected infection: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is little evidence of which sepsis screening tool to use in the ambulance setting. The primary aim of the current study was to compare the performance of NEWS2 (National Early Warning score 2) and RETTS (Rapid Emergency Triage and Treatment System) with respect to identification of sepsis among ambulance patients with clinically suspected infection. The secondary aim was to compare the performance of the novel Predict Sepsis screening tools with that of NEWS2, RETTS and clinical judgment.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of 323 adult ambulance patients with clinically suspected infection, transported to hospitals in Stockholm, during 2017/2018. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (Area Under the receiver operating Curve) were calculated and compared by using McNemar´s test and DeLong's test.

RESULTS

The prevalence of sepsis in the current study population was 44.6% (144 of 323 patients). No significant difference in AUC was demonstrated between NEWS2 ≥ 5 and RETTS ≥ orange. NEWS2 ≥ 7 demonstrated a significantly greater AUC than RETTS red. The Predict Sepsis screening tools ≥ 2 demonstrated the highest sensitivity (range 0.87-0.91), along with RETTS ≥ orange (0.83), but the lowest specificity (range 0.39-0.49). The AUC of NEWS2 (0.73) and the Predict Sepsis screening tools (range 0.75-0.77) was similar.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that NEWS2 could be the better alternative for sepsis identification in the ambulance, as compared to RETTS. The Predict Sepsis screening tools demonstrated a high sensitivity and AUCs similar to that of NEWS2. However, these results need to be interpreted with caution as the Predict Sepsis screening tools require external validation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03249597. Registered 15 August 2017-Retrospectively registered, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03249597 .

Application of a 72 h National Early Warning Score and Incorporation with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment for Predicting Sepsis Outcomes and Risk Stratification in an Intensive Care Unit: A Derivation and Validation Cohort Study

We investigated the best timing for using the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for predicting sepsis outcomes and whether combining the NEWS2 and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) was applicable for mortality risk stratification in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with severe sepsis. All adult patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock criteria between August 2013 and January 2017 with complete clinical parameters and laboratory data were enrolled as a derivation cohort. The primary outcomes were the 7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortalities. Furthermore, another group of patients under the same setting between January 2020 and March 2020 were also enrolled as a validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, we included 699 consecutive adult patients. The 72 h NEWS2 had good discrimination for predicting 7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortalities (AUC: 0.780, 0.724, 0.700, and 0.667, respectively) and was not inferior to the SOFA (AUC: 0.740, 0.680, 0.684, and 0.677, respectively). With the new combined NESO tool, the hazard ratio was 1.854 (1.203-2.950) for the intermediate-risk group and 6.810 (3.927-11.811) for the high-risk group relative to the low-risk group. This finding was confirmed in the validation cohort using a separated survival curve for 28-day mortality. The 72 h NEWS2 alone was non-inferior to the admission SOFA or day 3 SOFA for predicting sepsis outcomes. The NESO tool was found to be useful for 7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortality risk stratification in patients with severe sepsis.

Identifying the Sickest During Triage: Using Point-of-Care Severity Scores to Predict Prognosis in Emergency Department Patients With Suspected Sepsis

BACKGROUND

Sepsis progresses rapidly and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Bedside risk stratification scores can quickly identify patients at greatest risk of poor outcomes; however, there is lack of consensus on the best scale to use.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the ability of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), the National Early Warning System (NEWS2), and the Shock Index-which does not require mental status assessment-to predict poor outcomes among patients with suspected sepsis during triage.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of adults presenting to an academic emergency department (ED) from June 2012 to December 2018 who had blood cultures and intravenous antibiotics within 24 hours.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Clinical data were collected from the electronic health record. Patients were considered positive at qSOFA ≥2, Shock Index >0.7, or NEWS2 ≥5 scores. We calculated test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) to predict in-hospital mortality and ED-to-intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

RESULTS

We included 23,837 ED patients; 1,921(8.1%) were qSOFA-positive, 4,273 (17.9%) Shock Index-positive, and 11,832 (49.6%) NEWS2-positive. There were 1,427 (6.0%) deaths and 3,149 (13.2%) ED-to-ICU admissions in the sample. NEWS2 had the highest sensitivity for in-hospital mortality (76.0%) and ED-to-ICU admission (78.9%). qSOFA had the highest specificity for in-hospital mortality (93.4%) and ED-to-ICU admission (95.2%). Shock Index exhibited the highest AUROC for in-hospital mortality (0.648; 95 CI, 0.635-0.662) and ED-to-ICU admission (0.680; 95% CI, 0.617-0.689). Test characteristics were similar among those with sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

Institution priorities should drive score selection, balancing sensitivity and specificity. In our study, qSOFA was highly specific and NEWS2 was the most sensitive for ruling out patients at high risk. Performance of the Shock Index fell between qSOFA and NEWS2 and could be considered because it is easy to implement.

National Early Warning Score Does Not Accurately Predict Mortality for Patients With Infection Outside the Intensive Care Unit: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: The prognostic value of the national early warning score (NEWS) in patients with infections remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of NEWS for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with infections outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for related articles from January 2012 to April 2021. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS in selected populations. Results: A total of 21 studies with 107,008 participants were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS were 0.71 and 0.60. The pooled AUC of NEWS was 0.70, which was similar to quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA, AUC: 0.70) and better than systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, AUC: 0.60). However, the sensitivity (0.55) and AUC (0.63) of NEWS were poor in elder patients. The NEWS of 5 was more sensitive, which was a better threshold for activating urgent assessment and treatment. Conclusions: The NEWS had good diagnostic accuracy for early prediction of mortality in patients with infections outside the ICU, and the sensitivity and specificity were more moderate when compared with qSOFA and SIRS. Insufficient sensitivity and poor performance in the elder population may have limitations as an early warning score for adverse outcomes. NEWS should be used for continuous monitoring rather than a single time point predictive tool.

Modified National Early Warning Score as Early Predictor of Outcome in COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 represented an important challenge to the Italian healthcare system (IHCS). Our main aim was to obtain evidence to support the use of modified national early warning score (m-NEWS) as an interdisciplinary, common, and universal scoring scale to quickly recognize patients with a risk of clinical deterioration before admission and during hospitalization. As a secondary goal, we tried to find a score threshold that can trigger patients' immediate medical review as a part of an optimal triaging protocol for an emergency setting where healthcare resources are overloaded. We performed a retrospective observational study. We included in our study all patients treated for COVID-19 infection in surgical departments between 01 March 2020 and 16 April 2020. Patients with negative test results for SARS-COV-2 were excluded. m-NEWS was obtained twice a day. Patients' m-NEWS were analyzed in order to verify the correlation between m-NEWS (at admission and m-NEWS variation 24 h after admission) and outcome (positive outcome-survival, negative outcome-death, or intensive care unit (ICU) transfer). We included a population-based sample of 225 SARS-COV-2-infected patients. Overall, the average age at hospitalization was 71 (ranging from 40 to 95). 144 (64%) patients were males and 81 (36%) females. m-NEWS values lower or equal to 7 were associated with the majority of the "recovered" population (100/132 75.75%) and at the same time with the minority of the "non-recovered" population (25/93 26.88%). For our sample, age is statistically correlated to the outcome but a triage protocol based solely on this variable is less effective than m-NEWS, which showed to be a reliable and easy-to-use score for first patient evaluation. Our observations pave the way towards further studies aiming at optimizing territorial and community healthcare management protocols.

Investigation into the predictive capability for mortality and the trigger points of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in emergency department patients

INTRODUCTION

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is widely used to monitor and trigger assessment throughout a patient's hospital journey. Since the development and role out of NEWS2, its ability to predict mortality has been assessed in several settings, although to date not within an undifferentiated ED population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of all adult ED attendees at two EDs in Northern England, between March and November 2019. Multilevel multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted on patient episode data to assess the relationship between mortality at 2, 7 and 30 days from attendances; and maximum NEWS2, adjusting for age, sex, arrival mode and triage priority.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 91 871 valid patient episodes associated with 64 760 patients. NEWS2 was a significant predictor of mortality at 2 days (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.58 to 1.93); at 7 days (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.80); at 30 days (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.52 to 1.64). For the analyses of categorised NEWS2, NEWS2 of 2-20 was significantly associated with mortality at 2, 7 and 30 days compared with none assigned: OR 3.54 (95% CI 2.15 to 5.85) at 2 days; OR 6.05 (95% CI 3.92 to 9.34) at 7 days; OR 12.4 (95% CI 7.91 to 19.3) at 30 days. Increasing age, male sex, arrival by ambulance and higher triage categories were also associated with significantly increased mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.963, 0.946 and 0.915, respectively, were recorded for mortality outcomes, with optimum likelihood ratios associated with a trigger of 4 NEWS2 points.

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS2 is an effective predictor of mortality for patients presenting to the ED. Findings suggest that maximum NEWS2 of 4 and over may be the best trigger point for escalation of treatment. Findings also suggest a NEWS2 of 0-1 can identify a very low-risk group within the ED.

The ROX index has greater predictive validity than NEWS2 for deterioration in Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 are at risk of deterioration. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is widely recommended, however it's validity in Covid-19 is not established and indices more specific for respiratory failure may be more appropriate. We aim to describe the physiological antecedents to deterioration, test the predictive validity of NEWS2 and compare this to the ROX index ([SpO2/FiO2]/respiratory rate).

METHOD

A single centre retrospective cohort study of adult patients who were admitted to a medical ward, between 1/3/20 and 30/5/20, with positive results for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Physiological observations and the NEWS2 were extracted and analysed. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac arrest, unplanned critical care admission or death within 24 hours. A generalized linear model was used to assess the association of physiological values, NEWS2 and ROX with the outcome.

FINDINGS

The primary outcome occurred in 186 patients (26%). In the preceding 24 hours, deterioration was most marked in respiratory parameters, specifically in escalating oxygen requirement; tachypnoea was a late sign, whilst cardiovascular observations remained stable. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.815 (95% CI 0.804-0.826) for NEWS2 and 0.848 (95% CI 0.837-0.858) for ROX. Applying the optimal level of ROX, the majority of patients triggered four hours earlier than with NEWS2 of 5.

INTERPRETATION

NEWS2 may under-perform in Covid-19 due to intrinsic limitations of the design and the unique pathophysiology of the disease. A simple index utilising respiratory parameters can outperform NEWS2 in predicting the occurrence of adverse events.

In-hospital mortality of pulmonary tuberculosis with acute respiratory failure and related clinical risk factors

Background/objective

Data on acute respiratory failure (ARF) in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients is limited. This study aims to investigate in-hospital mortality, its clinical risk factors and the accuracy of the existing scoring system in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Methods

An observational prospective cohort study involving PTB patients with ARF in tertiary hospital, between January 2017 and December 2018, was conducted. The in-hospital mortality was predicted using the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and CRB-65. Regression models were run to analyze the clinical risk factors for in-hospital Mortality. Sensitivity and specificity of scoring systems were calculated using a Wilson score interval.

Results

A total of 111 subjects were included. Most of subjects were hypoxemic type respiratory failure (68.5%), advanced lesions (62.2%), new cases (70.3%) and pneumonia co-infection (72.1%) patients. Invasive mechanical ventilation was utilized for 29.73% of cases. There were 53 (47.75%) in-hospital mortality cases and its risk factors were intensive phase treatment (3.34 OR; CI95% 1.27-8.78), P/F ratio < 100 (OR 4.30; CI 95% 1.75-10.59) and renal insufficiency (4.09 OR; CI95% 1.46-11.49). The sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2 ≥ 6, qSOFA ≥ 2 and CRB-65 ≥ 2 were 62.26% and 67.24%; 60.38% and 72.41%; 41.51% and 84.48% respectively.

Conclusions

Most of PTB with ARF were new cases, advanced lesion and hypoxemic type respiratory failure. Intensive phase treatment, severe hypoxemia and renal insufficiency are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in PTB patients with ARF. NEWS2, qSOFA and CRB-65 scores were poor to predict the in-hospital mortality.

Enhancement in Performance of Septic Shock Prediction Using National Early Warning Score, Initial Triage Information, and Machine Learning Analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies reported that the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) has shown superiority over other screening tools in discriminating emergency department (ED) patients who are likely to progress to septic shock.

OBJECTIVES

To improve the performance of the NEWS for septic shock prediction by adding variables collected during ED triage, and to implement a machine-learning algorithm.

METHODS

The study population comprised adult ED patients with suspected infection. To detect septic shock within 24 h after ED arrival, the Sepsis-3 clinical criteria and nine variables were used: NEWS, age, gender, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, body temperature, and oxygen saturation. The model was developed using logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. The evaluations were performed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

Overall, 41,687 patients were enrolled. The AUROC of the model with NEWS, age, gender, and the six vital signs (0.835-0.845) was better than that of the baseline model (0.804). The XGB model (AUROC 0.845) was the most accurate, compared with LR (0.844) and ANN (0.835). The LR and XGB models were well calibrated; however, the ANN showed poor calibration power. The LR and XGB models showed better reclassification than the baseline model with positive NRI.

CONCLUSION

The discrimination power of the model for screening septic shock using NEWS, age, gender, and the six vital signs collected at ED triage outperformed the baseline NEWS model.

What Do We Know about Early Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock in Polish Hospitals? A Questionnaire Study

Background: Sepsis and septic shock are medical emergencies with a high risk of poor prognosis. We investigate the correspondence between Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) guidelines and clinical practice in Poland, with special attention given to differences between ICU and non-ICU environments as well as regional variations within the country. Methods: A web-based questionnaire study was performed on a random sample of 60 hospitals from the three most populated regions in Poland—Masovia, Silesia, and Greater Poland. A 19-item questionnaire was built based on the most recent edition of SSC guidelines. Results: Sepsis diagnosis was primarily based on clinical evaluation (ICUs: 94%, non-ICUs: 62%; p = 0.02). There were significant differences between ICUs and non-ICUs regarding taking blood cultures for pathogen identification (2-times more frequent in ICUs) and having hospital-based operating procedures to adjust antimicrobial treatment to a clinical scenario (a difference of 17%). Modification of empiric antimicrobial treatment was required post-ICU admission in 70% of cases. ICUs differed from non-ICUs with regard to the methods of fluid responsiveness assessment and the types of catecholamines and fluids used to treat septic shock. The mean fluid load applied before the implementation of catecholamines was 25.8 ± 10.6 mL/kg. Norepinephrine was the first-line agent used to treat shock, and balanced crystalloids were preferred in both ICUs and non-ICUs. Conclusion: Compliance with SCC guidelines in Polish hospitals is insufficient, especially outside ICUs. There is a need for education among healthcare professionals to reach at least an acceptable level of knowledge and attitude in this field.

The performance of the National Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score 2 in hospitalised patients infected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

INTRODUCTION

Since the introduction of the UK's National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its modification, NEWS2, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has caused a worldwide pandemic. NEWS and NEWS2 have good predictive abilities in patients with other infections and sepsis, however there is little evidence of their performance in COVID-19.

METHODS

Using receiver-operating characteristics analyses, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve to evaluate the performance of NEWS or NEWS2 to discriminate the combined outcome of either death or intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 24 h of a vital sign set in five cohorts (COVID-19 POSITIVE, n = 405; COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, n = 1716; COVID-19 NOT TESTED, n = 2686; CONTROL 2018, n = 6273; CONTROL 2019, n = 6523).

RESULTS

The AUROC values for NEWS or NEWS2 for the combined outcome were: COVID-19 POSITIVE, 0.882 (0.868-0.895); COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, 0.875 (0.861-0.89); COVID-19 NOT TESTED, 0.876 (0.85-0.902); CONTROL 2018, 0.894 (0.884-0.904); CONTROL 2019, 0.842 (0.829-0.855).

CONCLUSIONS

The finding that NEWS or NEWS2 performance was good and similar in all five cohorts (range = 0.842-0.894) suggests that amendments to NEWS or NEWS2, such as the addition of new covariates or the need to change the weighting of existing parameters, are unnecessary when evaluating patients with COVID-19. Our results support the national and international recommendations for the use of NEWS or NEWS2 for the assessment of acute-illness severity in patients with COVID-19.