Land Cover Change in the Blue Nile River Headwaters: Farmers’ Perceptions, Pressures, and Satellite-Based Mapping

Multi-level determinants of land use land cover change in Tigray, Ethiopia: A mixed-effects approach using socioeconomic panel and satellite data

This study examined land use land cover change and its determinants in Tigray, Ethiopia and its livelihood zones. We used socioeconomic panel, and satellite data, and applied a mixed-effects model to analyse the factors influencing land allocation among different uses, and transition matrix to analyse land cover dynamics. The results revealed that; land use choices were influenced by plot level factors (such as plot elevation, distance, soil type and quality, and land tenure), household characteristics (such as education, dependency ratio, plot size and number owned, income, livestock and asset, perception of climate change, and access to market and main road), and community level factors (precipitation, product price, population density and livelihood zone variations). Transition matrix analysis showed that between 1986 and 2016, 12.8% of forest was converted to bare land, 6.26% bare land was converted to pasture, and 5.84% of cropland was converted to forest. However, net deforestation occurred in most of the livelihood zones. Therefore, local communities faced environmental and socio-economic challenges from capital constraints induced land fallowing, land fragmentation, and unmanaged land cover change. The study recommended sustainable land use planning and management, market linkages, improved access to roads, forestry subsidies, land tenure security, and land consolidation programs.

Analyze of spatial extent and current condition of land use land cover dynamics for the period 1990-2020 Wayu-Tuka district, western Ethiopia

LULC variation has increased in many parts of the world recent years. Analyzing LULC is valuable to ability to grasp for spatial extent, patterns and impacts of the dynamics. This research examines the magnitudes and trends of LULC dynamics of Wayu-Tuka District, Western Ethiopia for a period of 1990-2020. Data were acquired from Landsat images (i.e, TM from 1990 to 2000, ETM+ from 2010 and OLI 2020). LULC classes were classified (from Landsat images) to develop land use land cover change maps for the study area. Landsat images were grouped via supervised classification method and maximum likelihood classifier (MLC). Accuracy scores and kappa a coefficient was used to confirm the accuracy categorized for LULC classes. Forest, settlement area, cultivated area, water body, and bare land are the main land use land cover categories identified in the study area. At the study district, forest coverage decreased progressively within the past three decades (1990-2020) from 12.4% in 1990 to 2.6% in 2020. The settlements, cultivated lands and water bodies have been explained by a average rate of 0.41% per year and forest land has been reduced by 0.33% per year. The study identified the major drivers of land use/land cover dynamics such as expansion of agricultural land, extraction of fuel woodland, illegal settlements and illegal logging was the key factors of LULC changes in the field of the study. In expressions of historical and current LULC, the analysis indicated that in the three decades years' viewpoint; changes in agriculture land expansion and expansion of settlement land have had a strong impact on the LULC dynamics. The few remaining forest area coverage of the District shall be completely vanished unless measures are taken to curb these declining trends. Therefore, relevant stakeholders should take integrated actions to rehabilitate degraded landscapes through afforestation and reforestation programmes.

Spatiotemporal land use and cover changes across agroecologies and slope gradients using geospatial technologies in Zoa watershed, Southwest Ethiopia

Environmental phenomena are always changing elsewhere in various scales depending on both natural phenomenon and human interference. Land use/over change (LULC) is related to site specific factors such as inappropriate land use planning and the expansion of traditional agricultural practices in steep gradients have led to soil erosion and consequent ecological changes. Thus, it is crucial to determine the trend, pattern, and drivers of land use/land cover dynamics for sustainable natural resource management in Ethiopia. Therefore, we evaluated the spatio-temporal LULC dynamics in different agroeclogies and slope gradients, and their drivers between 1985 and 2021 in the Zoa watershed of Omo-Gibe basin, Southwest Ethiopia. Landsat imageries, focus group discussants, key informants, and field observations were used as source of data to analyze the spatio-temporal LULC trajectories and their drivers. With total accuracies ranging from 87.55% to 91.14%, supervised image classification using the Maximum Likelihood classifier technique was used to categorize five key LULC classes: bareland, farmland, forestland, grassland, and shrubland. The results revealed that shrubland (41.87%) had the largest share in 1985, but later declined to 23.98% in 2000, and 12.6% in 2021. Grassland has declined as well, from 17.15% in 1985 to 2.09% in 2021. In contrast, farmland increased at the fastest rate, from 29.09% in 1985 to 71.12% in 2021. The proportion of farmland exhibited an increasing trend in all agro-ecologies, while forestland has increased only in highland agro-ecologies. Between 1985 and 2021, an extensive area of shrubland and grassland were converted into farmland with a conversation rate of 1.05% and 0.58% per annum, respectively. The expansion of farmland was observed towards moderately and steep rolling slopes which might exacerbate soil degradation. This is due to rapid population increase and ongoing demand for agricultural land. The result of key informant interviews and focus group discussions also revealed that expansion of farmland and settlement are the major drivers of LULC dynamics due to rapid human population growth. Therefore, the regional government and various stakeholders should work on redesigning effective management strategies through appropriate land use planning to address the adverse effects of LULC dynamics.

Land-use transition and its driving forces in a minority mountainous area: a case study from Mao County, Sichuan Province, China

Land-use change is an important research topic in global environmental change. Analyzing land-use change and its driving factors can aid in the evaluation of the current and the determination of future land-use policies. This study took Mao County, Southwest China, as the study area and used the land-use change and statistical data surveyed in 2009 and 2019. With the help of geographic information system technology, a land-use transfer matrix was used to comprehensively analyze the characteristics of spatiotemporal differentiation of land use, while the driving mechanism was analyzed by constructing the influencing factors using a geographical detector model. The results showed that the change in land use in Mao County was drastic. The increasing land types included orchards, grasslands, built-up lands, and water bodies, whereas the decreasing land types included croplands, forestlands, and unused lands. The main driving factors of land-use transition depended on the type of land-use change. Elevation, distance from the county government, and population were the main driving factors of land-use change. Road density, distance from the river, distance from the town/township government, and gross domestic product also affected land-use change to a certain extent, whereas relief and slope had less impact.

Land Preservation Uptakes in the Escarpments of North-Eastern Ethiopia: Drivers, Sustainability, and Constraints

Agricultural land is an indispensable resource for agrarian communities worldwide. There is a growing awareness that the world’s arable land supplies are limited and finite. For the last five decades, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and other development organisations have carried out land preservation uptakes intended to curb the effects of land degradation and improve agricultural productivity through various soil and water conservation practices (SWCPs). The study assessed the sustainability, drivers, and constraints of SWCPs in Dessie Zuria and Kutaber Woredas of South Wollo. We used the exploratory case study approach, involving qualitative and quantitative methods. Catastrophic weather conditions, the presence of the soil and water conservation program, and declining soil fertility were the top drivers influencing the program’s implementation. Based on the identified farm-level indicators and views of the respondents, physical measures were more sustainable than biological and mixed methods. The prominent factors hurdling the intervention were lack of tenure security, risk of rodent infestation, and losing a sense of ownership. Training community members on the importance of land preservation, amending the existing rigid land tenure policy, incorporating indigenous SWCPs, broadening the scale and extent of community participation, and enforcing laws and bylaws are recommended for the upcoming interventions. The finding has implications for land preservation and food security actors working to scale up evidence-based sustainable land management practices to the broader area.

Analysing land use/land cover changes and its dynamics using remote sensing and GIS in Gubalafito district, Northeastern Ethiopia

Abstract

Mapping and quantifying the status of Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes and drivers of change are important for identifying vulnerable areas for change and designing sustainable ecosystem services. This study analyzed the status of LULC changes and key drivers of change for the last 30 years through a combination of remote sensing and GIS with the surveying of the local community understanding of LULC patterns and drivers in the Gubalafto district, Northeastern Ethiopia. Five major LULC types (cultivated and settlement, forest cover, grazing land, bush land and bare land) from Landsat images of 1986, 2000, and 2016 were mapped. The results demonstrated that cultivated and settlement constituted the most extensive type of LULC in the study area and increased by 9% extent. It also revealed that a substantial expansion of bush land and bare land areas during the past 30 years. On the other hand, LULC classes that has high environmental importance such as grazing land and forest cover have reduced drastically through time with expanding cultivated and settlement during the same period. The grazing land in 1986 was about 11.1% of the total study area, and it had decreased to 5.7% in 2016. In contrast, cultivated and settlement increased from 45.6% in 1986 to 49.5% in 2016. Bush land increased from 14.8 to 21% in the same period, while forest cover declined from 8.9 to 2% in the same period. The root causes for LULC changes in this particular area include population growth, land tenure insecurity, and common property rights, persistent poverty, climate change, and lack of public awareness. Therefore, the causes for LULC changes have to be controlled, and sustainable resources use is essential; else, these scarce natural resource bases will soon be lost and will no longer be able to play their contribution in sustainable ecosystem services.

Article Highlights

Mapping Land Use Land Cover Changes and Their Determinants in the Context of a Massive Free Labour Mobilisation Campaign: Evidence from South Wollo, Ethiopia

Northern Ethiopia is characterised by fragile mountain eco-systems that are highly susceptible to land degradation, impacting food security and livelihoods. This study appraises Land Use Land Cover Changes (LULCC) and their determinants from 2000 to 2020 in Dessie Zuria and Kutaber Woredas. It explores the LULCC and the key anthropogenic drivers of the change over the past 20 years through a mix of satellite imagery and a survey of local understandings. Six land use types (agriculture, forest, area closure, grazing, settlement and bare land) were mapped from satellite imagery that was acquired from Landsat 7 for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, and Landsat 8 and OLI multispectral imageries for the years 2015 and 2020 with a spectral resolution of 30-m obtained from USGS. The results showed that agricultural land increased from 29.68% in 2000 to 35.77% in 2020.Furthermore, settlement and grazing lands enlarged from 5.95% and 6.04%, respectively, to 8.31% and 6.35% during the same period, while bare land increased from 9.89% to 10.92% in 2020. On the contrary, forest and area closure decreased from 18.45% and 29.99% to 17.8% and 17.38%, respectively. Meanwhile, population growth, unrestricted grazing, losing a sense of ownership of protected area closures and forests, lack of cooperation, using the free labour mobilisation schemes for government-induced agendas, weak enforcement of laws and bylaws, and engaging farmers for extended days on the campaign were prominent determinants of the changes. This research has implications for development actors across land management and food security towards implementing sustainable land management in the area and beyond.

Relationships and the Determinants of Sustainable Land Management Technologies in North Gojjam Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Sustainable land management (SLM) is a leading policy issue in Ethiopia. However, the adoption and continuous use of SLM technologies remain low. This study investigates the interrelationship of adopted SLM technologies and key factors of farmers’ decisions to use SLM technologies in the North Gojjam sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile. The study was based on the investigation of cross-sectional data obtained from 414 randomly selected rural household heads, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Descriptive statistics and Econometric models (i.e., Multivariate Probit and Poisson regression) were used to analyze quantitative data, while a content analysis method was used for qualitative data analysis. Results indicate that at least one type of SLM technology was implemented by 94% of farm households in the North Gojjam sub-basin. The most widely used technologies were chemical fertilizer, soil bund, and animal manure. Most of the adopted SLM technologies complement each other. Farm size, family size, male-headed household, local institutions, perception of soil erosion, livestock size, total income, and extension service increased the adoption probability of most SLM technologies. Plot fragmentation, household age, plot distance, off-farm income, market distance, and perception of good fertile soil discourage the adoption probability of most SLM technologies. To scale up SLM technologies against land degradation, it is important to consider households’ demographic characteristics, the capacity of farm households, and plot-level related factors relevant to the specific SLM technologies being promoted.

Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling

This study was conducted in the Zamora Huayco (ZH) river basin, located in the inter-Andean region of southern Ecuador. The objective was to describe, through land use/land cover change (LUCC), the natural physical processes under current conditions and to project them to 2029. Moreover, temperature and precipitation forecasts were estimated to detail possible effects of climate change. Using remote sensing techniques, satellite images were processed to prepare a projection to 2029. Water recharge was estimated considering the effects of slope, groundcover, and soil texture. Flash floods were estimated using lumped models, concatenating the information to HEC RAS. Water availability was estimated with a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT). Precipitation and temperature data were forecasted using autoregressive and exponential smoothing models. Under the forecast, forest and shrub covers show a growth of 6.6%, water recharge projects an increase of 7.16%. Flood flows suffer a reduction of up to 16.54%, and the flow regime with a 90% of probability of exceedance is 1.85% (7.72 l/s) higher for 2029 than for the 2019 scenario, so an improvement in flow regulation is evident. Forecasts show an increase in average temperature of 0.11 °C and 15.63% in extreme rainfall by 2029. Therefore, intervention strategies in Andean basins should be supported by prospective studies that use these key variables of the system for an integrated management of water resources.

Mapping and Quantifying Comprehensive Land Degradation Status Using Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation Technique in the Headwaters Area of Upper Blue Nile River

Mapping and quantifying land degradation status is important for identifying vulnerable areas and to design sustainable landscape management. This study maps and quantifies land degradation status in the north Gojjam sub-basin of the Upper Blue Nile River (Abbay) using GIS and remote sensing integrated with multicriteria analysis (MCA). This is accomplished using a combination of biological, physical, and chemical land degradation indicators to generate a comprehensive land degradation assessment. All indicators were standardized and weighted using analytical hierarchy and pairwise comparison techniques. About 45.3% of the sub-basin was found to experience high to very high soil loss risk, with an average soil loss of 46 t ha−1yr−1. More than half of the sub-basin was found to experience moderate to high level of biological degradation (low vegetation status and low soil organic matter level). In total, 80.2% of the area is characterized as having a moderate level of physical land degradation. Similarly, the status of chemical degradation for about 55.8% and 39% of the sub-basin was grouped as low and moderate, respectively. The combined spatial MCA of biological, chemical, and physical land degradation indicators showed that about 1.14%, 32%, 35.4%, and 30.5% of the sub-basin exhibited very low, low, moderate, and high degradation level, respectively. This study has concluded that soil erosion and high level of biological degradation are the most important indicators of land degradation in the north Gojjam sub-basin. Hence, the study suggests the need for integrated land management practices to reduce land degradation, enhance the soil organic matter content, and increase the vegetation cover in the sub-basin.