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Klein SG, Roch C, Duarte CM. Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2224. [PMID: 38472196 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46255-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shannon G Klein
- Marine Science Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division (BESE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
| | - Cassandra Roch
- Marine Science Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division (BESE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Carlos M Duarte
- Marine Science Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division (BESE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Shayka BF, Hesselbarth MHK, Schill SR, Currie WS, Allgeier JE. The natural capital of seagrass beds in the Caribbean: evaluating their ecosystem services and blue carbon trade potential. Biol Lett 2023; 19:20230075. [PMID: 37340807 PMCID: PMC10282569 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Seagrass beds provide tremendous services to society, including the storage of carbon, with important implications for climate change mitigation. Prioritizing conservation of this valuable natural capital is of global significance, and including seagrass beds in global carbon markets through projects that minimize loss, increase area or restore degraded areas represents a mechanism towards this end. Using newly available Caribbean seagrass distribution data, we estimated carbon storage in the region and calculated economic valuations of total ecosystem services and carbon storage. We estimated the 88 170 km2 of seagrass in the Caribbean stores 1337.8 (360.5-2335.0, minimum and maximum estimates, respectively) Tg carbon. The value of these seagrass ecosystems in terms of total ecosystem services and carbon alone was estimated to be $255 billion yr-1 and $88.3 billion, respectively, highlighting their potential monetary importance for the region. Our results show that Caribbean seagrass beds are globally substantial pools of carbon, and our findings underscore the importance of such evaluation schemes to promote urgently needed conservation of these highly threatened and globally important ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bridget F. Shayka
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | | | - Steven R. Schill
- Caribbean Division, The Nature Conservancy, Coral Gables, FL 33134, USA
| | - William S. Currie
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Jacob E. Allgeier
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
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Gallagher AJ, Brownscombe JW, Alsudairy NA, Casagrande AB, Fu C, Harding L, Harris SD, Hammerschlag N, Howe W, Huertas AD, Kattan S, Kough AS, Musgrove A, Payne NL, Phillips A, Shea BD, Shipley ON, Sumaila UR, Hossain MS, Duarte CM. Tiger sharks support the characterization of the world's largest seagrass ecosystem. Nat Commun 2022; 13:6328. [PMID: 36319621 PMCID: PMC9626626 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33926-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Seagrass conservation is critical for mitigating climate change due to the large stocks of carbon they sequester in the seafloor. However, effective conservation and its potential to provide nature-based solutions to climate change is hindered by major uncertainties regarding seagrass extent and distribution. Here, we describe the characterization of the world's largest seagrass ecosystem, located in The Bahamas. We integrate existing spatial estimates with an updated empirical remote sensing product and perform extensive ground-truthing of seafloor with 2,542 diver surveys across remote sensing tiles. We also leverage seafloor assessments and movement data obtained from instrument-equipped tiger sharks, which have strong fidelity to seagrass ecosystems, to augment and further validate predictions. We report a consensus area of at least 66,000 km2 and up to 92,000 km2 of seagrass habitat across The Bahamas Banks. Sediment core analysis of stored organic carbon further confirmed the global relevance of the blue carbon stock in this ecosystem. Data from tiger sharks proved important in supporting mapping and ground-truthing remote sensing estimates. This work provides evidence of major knowledge gaps in the ocean ecosystem, the benefits in partnering with marine animals to address these gaps, and underscores support for rapid protection of oceanic carbon sinks.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jacob W Brownscombe
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Nourah A Alsudairy
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Biosciences Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Chuancheng Fu
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Biosciences Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Neil Hammerschlag
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | - Wells Howe
- Beneath The Waves, PO Box 126, Herndon, VA, USA
| | | | - Sami Kattan
- Beneath The Waves, PO Box 126, Herndon, VA, USA
| | - Andrew S Kough
- Daniel P. Haerther Center for Conservation and Research, John G. Shedd Aquarium, 1200S Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Mohammad S Hossain
- Institute of Oceanography and Environment (INOS), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Carlos M Duarte
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Biosciences Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Chollett I, Escovar‐Fadul X, Schill SR, Croquer A, Dixon AM, Beger M, Shaver E, Pietsch McNulty V, Wolff NH. Planning for resilience: Incorporating scenario and model uncertainty and trade-offs when prioritizing management of climate refugia. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:4054-4068. [PMID: 35420230 PMCID: PMC9322576 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Revised: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here, we identify 'Climate Priority' sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence, and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modelling work is novel because it solves two important issues. (1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses and (2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological conditions and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate-smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Steven R. Schill
- Caribbean DivisionThe Nature ConservancyCoral GablesFloridaUnited States
| | - Aldo Croquer
- Caribbean DivisionThe Nature ConservancyCoral GablesFloridaUnited States
- Departamento de Estudios AmbientalesLaboratorio de Ecología ExperimentalUniversidad Simón BolívarCaracasMirandaVenezuela
| | - Adele M. Dixon
- School of BiologyFaculty of Biological SciencesUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - Maria Beger
- School of BiologyFaculty of Biological SciencesUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceSchool of Biological SciencesUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Elizabeth Shaver
- Caribbean DivisionThe Nature ConservancyCoral GablesFloridaUnited States
| | | | - Nicholas H. Wolff
- Global ScienceThe Nature ConservancyBrunswickMaineUnited States
- Marine Spatial Ecology LabUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
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