Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Predicting Prayagraj's Urbanization Trajectory using CA-ANN Modelling: Population Pressures and Land Use Dynamics

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics provide a crucial role in the monitoring, planning, and management of resources. They also offer valuable information for developing strategies to balance conservation efforts, resolve conflicts between different land uses, and address pressures from growth. The present study focuses on the assessment of LULC dynamics, their forecasting, and their changes for Prayagraj city (including its surroundings) of India. Using long-term spatiotemporal Landsat datasets (1988-2018), we have explored the interlinkages between the change dynamics and human population pressure to explore the impact of agriculture and urbanization on the city landscape. Future growth prediction is carried out by incorporating Cellular Automaton (CA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Six exploratory layers (viz., roads, educational institutes, railway transition, slope, river, and restricted area) are used in the learning process to determine LULC change (1997-2008) simulation. The validation of real and predicted LULC is carried out for 2018, where the correctness percentage and kappa value are found to be 90.29% and 0.87, respectively. Then, the ANN- Multilayer perceptron (MLP) and CA model are applied to predict LULC-2028 using the same trained transition probabilities. Results show that Built-land has grown highly by 10.03%, whereas Agriculture land and Forest land have significantly decreased by 13.43% and 3.03%, respectively, from 1988 to 2018. The predicted LULC of 2028 reveals that Built-land will keep growing by 2.83% during 2018-2028 at the cost of Agriculture land and Forest land, especially in northern, south-western and southern region, including city's inner sphere. United Nations' human population projection reveals that the city is expected to reach a population of 1.625 million by 2028. This indicates that tremendous pressure will be placed on land resources, particularly on agricultural, barren, and forested areas. To address this alarming scenario, it is imperative to delineate future development areas, ensuring better urban planning for the environmental sustainability and economic prosperity of Prayagraj city.

Explaining the role of land use changes on land surface temperature in an arid and semi-arid metropolitan area with multi-scale spatial regression analysis

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes are critical environmental concerns that require continuous monitoring and assessment, especially in cities within arid and semi-arid (ASA) climates. Despite the abundance of research in tropical, Mediterranean, and cold climates, there is a significant knowledge gap for cities in the Middle East with ASA climates. This study aimed to examine the effects of LULC change, population, and wind speed on LST in the Mashhad Metropolis, a city with an ASA climate, over a 30-year period. The research underscores the importance of environmental monitoring and assessment in understanding and mitigating the impacts of urbanization and climate change. Our research combines spatial regression models, multi-scale and fine-scale analyses, seasonal and city outskirts considerations, and long-term change assessments. We used Landsat satellite imagery, a crucial tool for environmental monitoring, to identify LULC changes and their impact on LST at three scales. The relationships were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) regressions, demonstrating the value of these techniques in environmental assessment. Our findings highlight the role of environmental factors in shaping LST. A decrease in vegetation and instability of water bodies significantly increased LST over the study period. Bare lands and rocky terrains had the most substantial effect on LST. At the same time, built-up areas resulted in Urban Cooling Islands (UCIs) due to their lower temperatures compared to surrounding bare lands. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Dry Bare-Soil Index (DBSI) were the most effective indices impacting LST in ASA regions, and the 30×30 m2 micro-scale provides more precise results in regression models, underscoring their importance in environmental monitoring. Our study provided a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between LULC changes and LST in an ASA environment, contributing significantly to the literature on environmental change in arid regions and the methodologies for monitoring such changes. Future research should aim to validate and expand additional LST-affecting factors and test our approach and findings in other ASA regions, considering the unique characteristics of these areas and the importance of tailored environmental monitoring and assessment approaches.

Evaluation of seasonal ecological vulnerability using LULC and thermal state dynamics using Landsat and MODIS data: a case study of Prayagraj City, India (1987-2018)

Prayagraj city (India) has been selected as a smart city by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Government of India in 2015. However, long-term spatiotemporal seasonal Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and Land Surface Temperature (LST) interactions with ecological vulnerability for different seasons are lacking. Accordingly, this research has been carried out to study the seasonal (summer and winter) LULC and its change pattern, thermal dynamics, and their role in exploring the ecological state over Prayagraj city and its surroundings using multi-temporal Landsat (1987-2018) and MODIS Terra data (2007-2018) at both diurnal and nocturnal scenarios. The LULC classification was carried out using Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) by adopting the Anderson classification scheme with more than 85% of overall accuracy. The Landsat data-based LST has been estimated using Mono-Window Algorithm (MWA) for diurnal scenario whereas MODIS-based LST was calculated for nocturnal scenario. Ecological vulnerability state has been evaluated both in day-time and night-time using Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) in summer and winter during 1987-2018 and 2007-2018, respectively. Overall, built-up land increased the most by 18.25% which was responsible for massive urbanization during 1987-2018. In contrast, forest land decreased by 2.22% during 1987-2018. The most vulnerable class was agriculture land followed by forest land irrespective of seasons. Thermal state was intensified by mean LST by 1.25 ℃ in summer and 0.58 ℃ in winter in day-time. However, in night-time, the mean LST intensified by 6.64 ℃ in summer and 1.86 ℃ in winter. The excellent ecological class having no SUHI effects declined in summer during 1988-2018 by 1.59% but surged in winter by 12.33% during 1987-2018 in north-west regions at day-time, whereas in night-time the excellent ecological class having no SUHI effects severely declined in summer as well as in winter during 2007-2018 by 11.1% and 1.32%, respectively. However, the worst ecological class having strongest SUHI effects severely spread in night-times compared to day-time which mainly concentrated in central core part of the city during 2007-2018 by 5.33%. The present study has generated a comprehensive long-term geospatial database which can be used for urban planning to achieve sustainable development to make Prayagraj city a truly smart city in future.

Simulation of land use/land cover changes and urban expansion in Estonia by a hybrid ANN-CA-MCA model and utilizing spectral-textural indices

Over the recent two decades, land use/land cover (LULC) drastically changed in Estonia. Even though the population decreased by 11%, noticeable agricultural and forest land areas were turned into urban land. In this work, we analyzed those LULC changes by mapping the spatial characteristics of LULC and urban expansion in the years 2000-2019 in Estonia. Moreover, using the revealed spatiotemporal transitions of LULC, we simulated LULC and urban expansion for 2030. Landsat 5 and 8 data were used to estimate 147 spectral-textural indices in the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. After that, 19 selected indices were used to model LULC changes by applying the hybrid artificial neural network, cellular automata, and Markov chain analysis (ANN-CA-MCA). While determining spectral-textural indices is quite common for LULC classifications, utilization of these continues indices in LULC change detection and examining these indices at the landscape scale is still in infancy. This country-wide modeling approach provided the first comprehensive projection of future LULC utilizing spectral-textural indices. In this work, we utilized the hybrid ANN-CA-MCA model for predicting LULC in Estonia for 2030; we revealed that the predicted changes in LULC from 2019 to 2030 were similar to the observed changes from 2011 to 2019. The predicted change in the area of artificial surfaces was an increased rate of 1.33% to reach 787.04 km² in total by 2030. Between 2019 and 2030, the other significant changes were the decrease of 34.57 km² of forest lands and the increase of agricultural lands by 14.90 km² and wetlands by 9.31 km². These findings can develop a proper course of action for long-term spatial planning in Estonia. Therefore, a key policy priority should be to plan for the stable care of forest lands to maintain biodiversity.

Monitoring Urbanization Induced Surface Urban Cool Island Formation in a South Asian Megacity: A Case Study of Bengaluru, India (1989–2019)

Many world cities have been going through thermal state intensification induced by the uncertain growth of impervious land. To address this challenge, one of the megacities of South Asia, Bengaluru (India), facing intense urbanization transformation, has been taken up for detailed investigations. Three decadal (1989–2019) patterns and magnitude of natural coverage and its influence on the thermal state are studied in this research for assisting urban planners in adopting mitigation measures to achieve sustainable development in the megacity. The main aim of this research is to monitor the surface urban cool island (SUCI) in Bengaluru city, one of the booming megacities in India, using Landsat data from 1989 to 2019. This study further focused on the analysis of land surface temperature (LST), bare surface (BS), impervious surface (IS), and vegetation surface (VS). The SUCI intensity (SUCII) is examined through the LST difference based on the classified categories of land use/land cover (LU/LC) using urban-rural grid zones. In addition, we have proposed a modified approach in the form of ISBS fraction ratio (ISBS–FR) to cater to the state of urbanization. Furthermore, the relationship between LST and ISBS–FR and the magnitude of the ISBS–FR is also analyzed. The rural zone is assumed based on <10% of the recorded fraction of IS (FIS) along the zones in the urban-rural gradient (URG). It is observed that SUCII hiked by 1.92°C in 1989, 4.61°C in 2004, and 2.66°C in 2019 between demarcated urban and rural zones along URG. Furthermore, the results indicate a high expansion of impervious space in the city from 1989 to 2019. The alteration in the city landscape mostly occurs due to impervious development, causing the intensification of SUCI. The mean LST (MLST) has a negative relationship with the fraction of VS (FVS) and a positive relationship with the fraction of BS (FBS). In addition, the ISBS–FR shows intense enlargement. The findings of the present study will add to the existing knowledge base and will serve as a road map for urban and landscape planning for environmental enrichment and sustainability of the megacity of Bengaluru.

Land Use Change in the Cross-Boundary Regions of a Metropolitan Area: A Case Study of Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang

Since the 1980s, metropolitan areas have increased worldwide due to urbanization and regionalization. While the spatial integration of the labor and housing markets has benefitted the development of cities within metropolitan areas, they have also brought great challenges for land governance; this is particularly evident in cross-boundary regions due to the complex relations between the markets and the regulations and between governments at different levels. Extensive research has been conducted on the city-level analysis of socioeconomic integration, land use development, and urban governance within metropolitan areas; yet, it is insufficient for understanding the intricate interplay between the various forces in such regions. This study aims to reveal the dynamics of land use change from 1990–2020 and its driving forces in the recent decade in the Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang (TWL) region—a typical cross-boundary area between Beijing, Tianjin, and the Hebei Metropolitan Area—using Landsat imagery. We employed the land-use dynamic degree, kernel density analysis, principal component analysis, and multiple linear regression to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change and its driving factors at the district/county level. The results show that the general land use changes from cultivated and forest land to urban and rural construction land across the region. The speed of the trend varies considerably over time between different areas as the land use policies and regulations of each local government change. The population growth and the tertiary and secondary industry growth are the main driving factors for the change in construction land across the whole TWL region, while the urbanization rate and fixed asset investment have different impacts across the cross-boundary region. The results suggest that expanding the integration of land use policies and regulations in the cross-boundary region is urgently required.

Surface Urban Heat Islands Dynamics in Response to LULC and Vegetation across South Asia (2000–2019)

Urbanization is an increasing phenomenon around the world, causing many adverse effects in urban areas. Urban heat island is are of the most well-known phenomena. In the present study, surface urban heat islands (SUHI) were studied for seven megacities of the South Asian countries from 2000–2019. The urban thermal environment and relationship between land surface temperature (LST), land use landcover (LULC) and vegetation were examined. The connection was explored with remote-sensing indices such as urban thermal field variance (UTFVI), surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and normal difference vegetation index (NDVI). LULC maps are classified using a CART machine learning classifier, and an accuracy table was generated. The LULC change matrix shows that the vegetated areas of all the cities decreased with an increase in the urban areas during the 20 years. The average LST in the rural areas is increasing compared to the urban core, and the difference is in the range of 1–2 (°C). The SUHII linear trend is increasing in Delhi, Karachi, Kathmandu, and Thimphu, while decreasing in Colombo, Dhaka, and Kabul from 2000–2019. UTFVI has shown the poor ecological conditions in all urban buffers due to high LST and urban infrastructures. In addition, a strong negative correlation between LST and NDVI can be seen in a range of −0.1 to −0.6.

Scenario simulation of land use and land cover change in mining area

In this study, we selected 11 townships with severe ground subsidence located in Weishan County as the study area. Based on the interpretation data of Landsat images, the Binary logistic regression model was used to explore the relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) change and the related 7 driving factors at a resolution of 60 m. Using the CLUE-S model, combined with Markov model, the simulation of LULC under three scenarios-namely, natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and farmland protection scenario-were explored. Firstly, using LULC map in 2005 as input data, we predicted the land use spatial distribution pattern in 2016. By comparing the actual LULC map in 2016 with the simulated map in 2016, the prediction accuracy was evaluated based on the Kappa index. Then, after validation, the spatial distribution pattern of LULC in 2025 under the three scenarios was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) The driving factors had satisfactory explanatory power for LULC changes. The Kappa index was 0.82, which indicated good simulation accuracy of the CLUE-S model. (2) Under the three scenarios, the area of other agricultural land and water body showed an increasing trend; while the area of farmland, urban and rural construction land, subsided land with water accumulation, and tidal wetland showed a decreasing trend, and the area of urban and rural construction land and tidal wetland decreased the fastest. (3) Under the ecological protection scenario, the farmland decreased faster than the other two scenarios, and most of the farmland was converted to ecological land such as garden land and water body. Under the farmland protection scenario, the area of tidal wetland decreased the fastest, followed by urban and rural construction land. We anticipate that our study results will provide useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the mining area.

Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Future Scenario of LULC Using the CA-ANN Approach: A Case Study of the Greater Bay Area, China

Land use land cover (LULC) transition analysis is a systematic approach that helps in understanding physical and human involvement in the natural environment and sustainable development. The study of the spatiotemporal shifting pattern of LULC, the simulation of future scenarios and the intensity analysis at the interval, category and transition levels provide a comprehensive prospect to determine current and future development scenarios. In this study, we used multitemporal remote sensing data from 1980–2020 with a 10-year interval, explanatory variables (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, population, GDP, distance from roads, distance from the city center and distance from streams) and an integrated CA-ANN approach within the MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS to model the spatiotemporal change transition potential and future LULC simulation in the Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that physical and socioeconomic driving factors have significant impacts on the landscape patterns. Over the last four decades, the study area experienced rapid urban expansion (4.75% to 14.75%), resulting in the loss of forest (53.49% to 50.57%), cropland (21.85% to 16.04%) and grassland (13.89% to 12.05%). The projected results (2030–2050) also endorse the increasing trend in built-up area, forest, and water at the cost of substantial amounts of cropland and grassland.

Spatiotemporal Influence of Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics on Surface Urban Heat Island: A Case Study of Abuja Metropolis, Nigeria

Rapid urbanization in cities and urban centers has recently contributed to notable land use/land cover (LULC) changes, affecting both the climate and environment. Therefore, this study seeks to analyze changes in LULC and its spatiotemporal influence on the surface urban heat islands (UHI) in Abuja metropolis, Nigeria. To achieve this, we employed Multi-temporal Landsat data to monitor the study area’s LULC pattern and land surface temperature (LST) over the last 29 years. The study then analyzed the relationship between LULC, LST, and other vital spectral indices comprising NDVI and NDBI using correlation analysis. The results revealed a significant urban expansion with the transformation of 358.3 sq. km of natural surface into built-up areas. It further showed a considerable increase in the mean LST of Abuja metropolis from 30.65 °C in 1990 to 32.69 °C in 2019, with a notable increase of 2.53 °C between 2009 and 2019. The results also indicated an inverse relationship between LST and NDVI and a positive connection between LST and NDBI. This implies that urban expansion and vegetation decrease influences the development of surface UHI through increased LST. Therefore, the study’s findings will significantly help urban-planners and decision-makers implement sustainable land-use strategies and management for the city.

Spatial Interconnections of Land Surface Temperatures with Land Cover/Use: A Case Study of Tokyo

As one of the most populated metropolitan areas in the world, the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) has experienced severe climatic modifications and pressure due to densified human activities and urban expansion. The surface urban heat island (SUHI) phenomenon particularly constitutes a significant threat to human comfort and geo-environmental health in TMA. This study aimed to profile the spatial interconnections between land surface temperature (LST) and land cover/use in TMA from 2001 to 2015 using multi-source spatial data. To this end, the thermal gradients between the urban and non-urban fabric areas in TMA were examined by joint analysis of land cover/use and LST. The spatiotemporal aggregation patterns, variations, and movement trajectories of SUHI intensity in TMA were identified and delineated. The spatial relationship between SUHI and the potential driving forces in TMA was clarified using geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis. The results show that the thermal environment of TMA exhibited a polynucleated spatial structure with multiple thermal island cores. Overall, the magnitude and extent of SUHI in TMA increased and expanded from 2001 to 2015. During that time, SUHIs clustered in the compact residential quarters and redevelopment/renovation areas rather than downtown. The GWR models showed better performance than ordinary least squares (OLS) models, with Adj R2 > 0.9, indicating that the magnitude of SUHI significantly depended on its neighboring geographical setting, including land cover composition and configuration, population size, and terrain. We suggest that UHI mitigation in Tokyo should be focused on alleviating the magnitude of persistent thermal cores and controlling unstable SUHI occurrence based on partitioned or location-specific landscape design. This study’s findings have immense implications for SUHI mitigation in metropolitan areas situated in bay regions.

Assessment of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Land Surface Temperatures and Their Impact on Surface Urban Heat Island Phenomena in the Kathmandu Valley (1988–2018)

More than half of the world’s populations now live in rapidly expanding urban and its surrounding areas. The consequences for Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) phenomena are poorly understood for many new cities. We explore this issue and their inter-relationship in the Kathmandu Valley, an area of roughly 694 km2, at decadal intervals using April (summer) Landsat images of 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018. LULC assessment was made using the Support Vector Machine algorithm. In the Kathmandu Valley, most land is either natural vegetation or agricultural land but in the study period there was a rapid expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas. Impervious surfaces (IL) grew by 113.44 km2 (16.34% of total area), natural vegetation (VL) by 6.07 km2 (0.87% of total area), resulting in the loss of 118.29 km2 area from agricultural land (17.03% of total area) during 1988–2018. At the same time, the average land surface temperature (LST) increased by nearly 5–7 °C in the city and nearly 3–5 °C at the city boundary. For different LULC classes, the highest mean LST increase during 1988–2018 was 7.11 °C for IL with the lowest being 3.18 °C for VL although there were some fluctuations during this time period. While open land only occupies a small proportion of the landscape, it usually had higher mean LST than all other LULC classes. There was a negative relationship both between LST and Normal Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and LST and Normal Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), respectively, and a positive relationship between LST and Normal Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). The result of an urban–rural gradient analysis showed there was sharp decrease of mean LST from the city center outwards to about 15 kms because the NDVI also sharply increased, especially in 2008 and 2018, which clearly shows a surface urban heat island effect. Further from the city center, around 20–25 kms, mean LST increased due to increased agriculture activity. The population of Kathmandu Valley was 2.88 million in 2016 and if the growth trend continues then it is predicted to reach 3.85 million by 2035. Consequently, to avoid the critical effects of increasing SUHI in Kathmandu it is essential to improve urban planning including the implementation of green city technologies.

Scenario-based simulation of land use in Yingtan (Jiangxi Province, China) using an integrated genetic algorithm-cellular automata-Markov model

Yingtan is a rapidly urbanizing city in Jiangxi Province, South China. During rapid urbanization, construction land is expanded at the expense of cropland and forest. Although economic benefits are gained, ecological and environmental damage is irreversible. In this study, a methodological framework for land use simulation using an integrated genetic algorithm-cellular automata-Markov model is proposed to assess the relationship between economic development and cropland protection in Yingtan. This framework considers both the economic and ecological benefits of different land use types. Three land use scenarios are evaluated to seek recommendations for land use practice. The results show that the areas with high suitability for cropland and construction are mainly concentrated in urban fringes. Under the green development scenario, the area of new construction land can meet the land demand for population growth and economic development proposed for 2025 based on population forecasting and government interviews. The expansion for construction land is decreased by ~ 35 km² while the cropland area is increased by ~ 20 km² compared with those under natural and controlled development scenarios. Additionally, ecological losses are lowest under the green development scenario. In conclusion, the green development scenario is conducive to both cropland and ecological protection, which is of relevance for future spatial planning in Yingtan.

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

Land use change has a significant impact on the structure and function of ecosystems, and the transformation of ecosystems affects the mode and efficiency of land use, which reflects a mutual interaction relationship. The prediction and simulation of future land use change can enhance the foresight of land use planning, which is of great significance to regional sustainable development. In this study, future land use changes are characterized under an ecological optimization scenario based on the grey prediction (1,1) model (GM) and a future land use simulation (FLUS) model. In addition, the ecosystem service value (ESV) of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2030 were estimated based on the revised estimation model. The results indicate the following details: (1) the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use layout of Anhui Province in 2018, where the overall accuracy of the simulation results is high, indicating that the FLUS model is applicable for simulating future land use change; (2) the spatial layout of land use types in Anhui Province is stable and the cultivated land has the highest proportion. The most significant characteristic of future land use change is that the area of cultivated land continues to decrease while the area of built-up land continues to expand; and (3) the ESV of Anhui Province is predicted to increase in the future. The regulating service is the largest ESV contributor, and water area is the land use type with the highest proportion of ESV. These findings provide reference for the formulation of sustainable development policies of the regional ecological environment.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Cover Patterns and Their Relationship with Land Surface Temperature in Nanjing, China

Rapid urbanization is one of the most concerning issues in the 21st century because of its significant impacts on various fields, including agriculture, forestry, ecology, and climate. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, highly related to the rapid urbanization, has attracted considerable attention from both academic scholars and governmental policymakers because of its direct influence on citizens’ daily life. Land surface temperature (LST) is a widely used indicator to assess the intensity of UHI significantly affected by the local land use/cover (LULC). In this study, we used the Landsat time-series data to derive the LULC composition and LST distribution maps of Nanjing in 2000, 2014, and 2018. A correlation analysis was carried out to check the relationship between LST and the density of each class of LULC. We found out that cropland and forest in Nanjing are helping to cool the city with different degrees of cooling effects depending on the location and LULC composition. Then, a Cellar Automata (CA)-Markov model was applied to predict the LULC conditions of Nanjing in 2030 and 2050. Based on the simulated LULC maps and the relationship between LST and LULC, we delineated high- and moderate-LST related risk areas in the city of Nanjing. Our findings are valuable for the local government to reorganize the future development zones in a way to control the urban climate environment and to keep a healthy social life within the city.

Expansion of Rural Settlements on High-Quality Arable Land in Tongzhou District in Beijing, China

Settlement expansion caused by urbanization is an important factor leading to the loss of arable land across the world. Due to various factors in China, such as institutional problems, the total number of rural settlements is decreasing, while the total area continues to increase. Rural settlements expand mainly into arable land, resulting in a significant loss of high-quality farmland, thus threatening long-term food security. However, research on this subject is relatively scarce. In this study, using KeyHole and RESURS F1 satellite remote sensing images, we examined the spatial expansion of rural settlements in Tongzhou District, Beijing, in 1972 and 1991. Then, the consumption of high-quality arable land by rural settlements expansion was assessed. It was found that the overall accuracy of the produced maps for 1972 and 1991 were 93% and 90%, respectively. The accuracy of mapped changes from 1972 to 1991 was as high as 90%. From 1972 to 1991 and from 1991 to 2015, the rural settlements in Tongzhou District expanded by 51.54% and 79.91% respectively, with 53.72% and 60.64% of the expanded rural settlements being on arable land. Rural settlements expanded mainly into high-quality arable land at the beginning of the study period, whereas later on, medium- and low-quality farmland was also occupied, albeit to a lesser degree.

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Climatic, socio-economic, geophysical, and human activity factors, among others, influence land use patterns. However, these driving factors also have different relationships with each other. Combining machine learning methods and statistical models is a good way to simulate the dominant land use types. The Luan River basin is located in a farming-pastoral transitional zone and is an important ecological barrier between Beijing and Tianjin. In this study, we predicted future land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2020 in the Luan River’s upper and middle reaches under three scenarios—the natural scenario, the ecological scenario, and the sustainable scenario. The results indicate that cultivated land will decrease while the forested areas will increase quantitatively in the future. Built-up areas would increase quickly in the natural scenario, and augmented expansion of forest would be the main features of land use changes in both the ecological scenario and the sustainable scenario. Regarding the spatial pattern, different land use patterns will be aggregated and patches will become larger. Our findings for the scenario analysis of land use changes can provide a reference case for sustainable land use planning and management in the upper and middle Luan River basin.

Spatial Forecasting of the Landscape in Rapidly Urbanizing Hill Stations of South Asia: A Case Study of Nuwara Eliya, Sri Lanka (1996–2037)

Forecasting landscape changes is vital for developing and implementing sustainable urban planning. Presently, apart from lowland coastal cities, mountain cities (i.e., hill stations) are also facing the negative impacts of rapid urbanization due to their economic and social importance. However, few studies are addressing urban landscape changes in hill stations in Asia. This study aims to examine and forecast landscape changes in the rapidly urbanizing hill station of Nuwara Eliya, Sri Lanka. Landsat data and geospatial techniques including support vector machines, urban–rural gradient, and statistical analysis were used to map and examine the land use/land cover (LULC) change in Nuwara Eliya during the 1996–2006 and 2006–2017 periods. The multilayer perceptron neural network-Markov model was applied to simulate future LULC changes for 2027 and 2037. The results show that Nuwara Eliya has been directly affected by rapid urban development. During the past 21 years (1996–2017), built-up areas increased by 1791 ha while agricultural land declined by 1919 ha due to augmented urban development pressure. The pressure of urban development on forest land has been relatively low, mainly due to strict conservation government policies. The results further show that the observed landscape changes will continue in a similar pattern in the future, confirming a significant increase and decrease of built-up and agricultural land, respectively, from 2017 to 2037. The changes in agricultural land exhibit a strong negative relationship with the changes in built-up land along the urban–rural gradient (R2 were 0.86 in 1996–2006, and 0.93 in 2006–2017, respectively). The observed LULC changes could negatively affect the production of unique upcountry agricultural products such as exotic vegetables, fruits, cut flowers, and world-famous Ceylon tea. Further, unplanned development could cause several environmental issues. The study is important for understanding future LULC changes and suggesting necessary remedial measures to minimize possible undesirable environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China

Land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have been affected by ecological processes as well as socioeconomic and human activities, resulting in several environmental problems. The study of the human–environment system combined with land use/land cover dynamics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We aimed to provide an integrated model that couples land use, socioeconomic influences, and ecosystem processes to explore the future dynamics of land use under two scenarios in China. Under Scenario A, the yield of grain continues to increase, and under Scenario B, the yield of grain remains constant. This study created a LULCC model by integrating a simple global socioeconomic model, a Terrestrial ecosystem simulator (TESim), and a land use allocation model. The results were analyzed by comparing spatiotemporal differences under predicted land use conditions in the two alternative scenarios. The simulation results showed patterns that varied between the two scenarios. In Scenario A, grassland will expand in the future and a large reduction in cropland will be observed. In Scenario B, the augmented expansion of cropland and a drastic shrinkage of forest area will be the main land use conversion features. Scenario A is more promising because more land is preserved for ecological restoration and urbanization, which is in line with China’s Grain for Green Program. Economic development should be based on ecological protection. The results are expected to add insight to sustainable land use development and regional natural resource management in China.

Scenario-based modelling for urban sustainability focusing on changes in cropland under rapid urbanization: A case study of Hangzhou from 1990 to 2035

China is undergoing rapid urbanization, which has brought great pressure on croplands throughout the country, especially in fast developing cities, such as Hangzhou. In this study, an attempt was made to monitor and model the cropland dynamics of Hangzhou from 1990 to 2035. The spatial-temporal changes in the cropland were discussed based on the land cover maps along with urban-rural gradient analysis. After understanding the spatial-temporal patterns of cropland changes, the cellular automata-Markov model was employed using the historical land cover maps and other explanatory data to perform a scenario-based simulation. Accordingly, three scenarios, namely spontaneous scenario (SS), protected area ensuring scenario (PAES), and optimal agriculture developing scenario (OADS), were designed for simulating the cropland distribution in 2035. The monitoring results showed that during 1990-2015, the cropland area decreased 1512.46km² under rapid urbanization. Areas at a distance of 12km from the city center experienced maximum cropland loss. Among all the spatial metrics, aggregation index of the cropland exhibited the highest correlation with the distance to the city center (r=0.77 in 2015), thereby suggesting an obvious trend in aggregation along the urban-rural gradient. The modelling results reported that under PAES and OADS, the study area could gain 81.76km² and 255.14km² more cropland, respectively, than that under SS in 2035. Thus, policies applied in PAES and OADS would be effective for cropland protection.

Simulating urban expansion in a rapidly changing landscape in eastern Tarai, Nepal

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and predicting future growth is now essential for sustainable urban planning and policy making. This study explores future urban expansion in the rapidly growing region of eastern lowland Nepal. We used the hybrid cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, which utilizes historical land use and land cover (LULC) maps and several biophysical change driver variables to predict urban expansion for the years 2026 and 2036. Transitional area matrices were generated based on historical LULC data from 1996 to 2006, from 2006 to 2016, and from 1996 to 2016. The approach was validated by cross comparing the actual and simulated maps for 2016. Evaluation gave satisfactory values of Kno (0.89), Kstandard (0.84), and Klocation (0.89) which verifies the accuracy of the model. Hence, the CA-Markov model was utilized to simulate the LULC map for the years 2026 and 2036. The study area experienced rapid peri/urban expansion and sharp decline in area of cultivated land during 1989-2016. Built-up area increased by 110.90 km² over a period of 27 years at the loss of 87.59 km² cultivated land. Simulation analysis indicates that urban expansion will continue with urban cover increasing to 230 km² (8.95%) and 318.51 km² (12.45%) by 2026 and 2036, respectively, with corresponding declines in cultivated land to 1453.83 km² (56.86%) and 1374.93 km² (53.77%) for the same years. The alarming increase in urban areas coupled with loss of cultivated land will have negative implications for food security and environmental equilibrium in the region.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover and Its Effects on Surface Urban Heat Island Using Landsat Data: A Case Study of Metropolitan City Tehran (1988–2018)

This article summarized the spatiotemporal pattern of land use/land cover (LU/LC) and urban heat island (UHI) dynamics in the Metropolitan city of Tehran between 1988 and 2018. The study showed dynamics of each LU/LC class and their role in influencing the UHI. The impervious surface area expanded by 286.04 (48.27% of total land) and vegetated land was depleted by 42.06 km2 (7.10% of total land) during the period of 1988–2018. The mean land surface temperature (LST) has enlarged by approximately 2–3 °C at the city center and 5–7 °C at the periphery between 1988 and 2018 based on the urban–rural gradient analysis. The lower mean LST was experienced by vegetation land (VL) and water body (WB) by approximately 4–5 °C and 5–7 °C, respectively, and the higher mean LST by open land (OL) by 7–11 °C than other LU/LC classes at all time-points during the time period, 1988–2018. The magnitude of mean LST was calculated based on the main LU/LC categories, where impervious land (IL) recorded the higher temperature difference compared to vegetation land (VL) and water bodies (WB). However, open land (OL) recorded the highest mean LST differences with all the other LU/LC categories. In addition to that, there was an overall negative correlation between LST and the normal difference vegetation index (NDVI). By contrast, there was an overall positive correlation between LST and the normal difference built-up index (NDBI). This article, executed through three decadal change analyses from 1988 to 2018 at 10-year intervals, has made a significant contribution to delineating the long records of change dynamics and could have a great influence on policy making to foster environmental sustainability.

The Effect of Observation Scale on Urban Growth Simulation Using Particle Swarm Optimization-Based CA Models

Cellular automata (CA) is a bottom-up self-organizing modeling tool for simulating contagion-like phenomena such as complex land-use change and urban growth. It is not known how CA modeling responds to changes in spatial observation scale when a larger-scale study area is partitioned into subregions, each with its own CA model. We examined the impact of changing observation scale on a model of urban growth at UA-Shanghai (a region within a one-hour high-speed rail distance from Shanghai) using particle swarm optimization-based CA (PSO-CA) modeling. Our models were calibrated with data from 1995 to 2005 and validated with data from 2005 to 2015 on spatial scales: (1) Regional-scale: UA-Shanghai was considered as a single study area; (2) meso-scale: UA-Shanghai was partitioned into three terrain-based subregions; and (3) city-scale: UA-Shanghai was partitioned into six cities based on administrative boundaries. All three scales yielded simulations averaging about 87% accuracy with an average Figure-of-Merit (FOM) of about 32%. Overall accuracy was reduced from calibration and validation. The regional-scale model yielded less accurate simulations as compared with the meso- and city-scales for both calibration and validation. Simulation success in different subregions is independent at the city-scale, when compared with regional- and meso-scale. Our observations indicate that observation scale is important in CA modeling and that smaller scales probably lead to more accurate simulations. We suggest smaller partitions, smaller observation scales and the construction of one CA model for each subregion to better reflect spatial variability and to produce more reliable simulations. This approach should be especially useful for large-scale areas such as huge urban agglomerations and entire nations.

Scenario-Based Simulation of Tianjin City Using a Cellular Automata–Markov Model

Rapid urbanization is occurring throughout China, especially in megacities. Using a land use model to obtain future land use/cover conditions is an essential method to prevent chaotic urban sprawl and imbalanced development. This study utilized historical Landsat images to create land use/cover maps to predict the land use/cover changes of Tianjin city in 2025 and 2035. The cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model was applied in the simulation under three scenarios: the environmental protection scenario (EPS), crop protection scenario (CPS), and spontaneous scenario (SS). The model achieved a kappa value of 86.6% with a figure of merit (FoM) of 12.18% when compared to the empirical land use/cover map in 2015. The results showed that the occupation of built-up areas increased from 29.13% in 2015 to 38.68% (EPS), 36.18% (CPS), and 47.94% (SS) in 2035. In this context, current urbanization would bring unprecedented stress on agricultural resources and forest ecosystems, which could be attenuated by implementing protection policies along with decelerating urban expansion. The findings provide valuable information for urban planners to achieve sustainable development goals.