Agricultural Water Productivity-Based Hydro-Economic Modeling for Optimal Crop Pattern and Water Resources Planning in the Zarrine River Basin, Iran, in the Wake of Climate Change

Different policies constrained agricultural non-point pollutants emission trading management for water system under interval, fuzzy, and stochastic information

Formulating suitable policies is essential for resources and environmental management. In this study, an agricultural pollutants emission trading management model driven by water resources and pollutants control is developed to search reasonable policies for agricultural water resources allocation under multiple uncertainties. Random-fuzzy and interval information in water resources system that have directly impact on the effectiveness of management schemes is reflected through interval two-stage stochastic fuzzy-probability programming. The model was root from regional agricultural water resources system in Jining City, China under considering the relationship among effective precipitation, crop water demand, and pollutants emission. Two types policies (water consumption-control and pollutants emission-control) are designed for searching the related interaction on water resources management and water quality improvement. The results indicated that water resources policies would be of water and environmental double benefits, and a large rainfall would reduce irrigation amount from water sources and lead to a larger pollutants emission trading. The results will help for defining scientific and effective water resources protection and management policies and analyzing the related interacted effects on water consumption, pollutants control and system benefit.

A resilience-based framework for evaluating the carrying capacity of water and environmental resources under the climate change

This paper proposes a new framework for evaluating water and environmental resources carrying capacity (WERCC) based on the concept of resilience under uncertainty. First, several quantitative and qualitative criteria based on the seven principles of resilience and the Pressure-Support-State (PSS) framework are defined to incorporate the positive and negative impacts of human interventions and natural factors on water resources and the environment. The resilience principles include redundancy and diversity, managing connectivity, managing slow variables and their feedbacks, fostering complex adaptive system (CAS) thinking, encouraging learning, broadening participation, and promoting polycentric governance. After evaluating the values of the criteria and sub-criteria using a two-point evidential reasoning (TPER) approach and considering the existing uncertainties, the monthly time series of WERCC with uncertainty bands are calculated. The proposed methodology is then used to evaluate the WERCC in the Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran for a given historical period (1991-2012), and the period of 2020 to 2049 under different climate change scenarios. The results of this analysis demonstrate the inadequacy of the WERCC during the historical period and indicate that the continuation of the existing trend (base scenario, MSC0) will cause many environmental issues. Hence, several water and environmental resources management (WERM) scenarios are proposed to enhance the WERCC. These scenarios are evaluated using a multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making method to identify the preferable WERM scenario (MSC12356). This scenario, which encompasses various projects (e.g., development and enhancement of water transfer networks and upgrading cultivation methods), improves the average value of the WERCC by 26 %. The results of the proposed methodology are compared with those of a traditional decision-making method, which considers three criteria of average WERCC, the pressure-support index, and the implementation cost. The results demonstrate that the multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making approach provides a more cost-effective management scenario, with 30 % less cost, leading to only 3 % less carrying capacity.

A Bibliometric Analysis of the Application of Remote Sensing in Crop Spatial Patterns: Current Status, Progress and Future Directions

The crop spatial pattern (CSP) is the spatial expression of the planting structure, maturity and planting pattern of crops in a region or production unit. It reflects the situation of human agricultural production using agricultural production resources, and is very important for human survival and development. Based on 5356 publications collected from the Web of Science Core CollectionTM (WoS), this paper’s aim is to illustrate a comprehensive run-through and visualization of the subject of CSP. A time series evolution diagram of hot topics and the evolution of research hotspots are discussed in detail. Then, remote sensing monitoring methods of the crop planting area, multiple cropping, crop planting patterns and the mechanisms of crop spatial patterns are summarized, respectively. In the discussion, we focus on three important issues, namely, the remote sensing cloud platform, the changes in characteristics of the crop spatial pattern and the simulation of the crop spatial pattern. The main objective of the paper is to assist research workers interested in the area of CSP in determining potential research gaps and hotspots.

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The performance of simulated rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin of the CMIP5 models were statistically evaluated using observation datasets at eleven stations. The results showed that the selected CMIP5 models can reasonably simulate the monthly rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin at the majority of the stations. Modified Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to estimate the trends of annual rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin in the historical and future periods. We found that rainfall experienced no clear trends, while Tmax, and Tmin showed consistently significant increasing trends under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, the warming is expected to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century, resulting in an increasing trend of Tmax and Tmin at all stations. The greatest warming occurred in the central part of the basin, with statistically significant increases largely seen by the end of the 21st century, which is expected to exacerbate the evapotranspiration demand of the area that could negatively affect the freshwater availability within the basin. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on rainfall- and evapotranspiration-related climate variables, which can be used to inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

Integrated modelling to assess the impacts of water stress in a transboundary river basin: Bridging local-scale water resource operations to a river basin economy

In this study, we develop a hydro-economic modelling framework for river-basin scales by integrating a water resources system model and an economic model. This framework allows for the representation of both local-scale features, such as reservoirs, diversions, and water licenses and priorities, and regional- and provincial-scale features, such as cross-sectoral and inter-regional connectedness and trade flows. This framework is able to: (a) represent nonlinearities and interactions that cannot be represented by either of typical water resources or economic models; (b) analyze the sensitivity of macro-scale economy to different local water management decisions (called 'decision levers' herein); and (c) identify water allocation strategies that are economically sound across sectors and regions. This integrated model is applied to the multi-jurisdictional Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada. Our findings reveal that an economically optimal water allocation strategy can mitigate the economic losses of water stress up to 80% compared to the existing water allocation strategy. We draw lessons from our analysis and discuss how integrated inter-regional hydro-economic modelling can benefit vulnerability assessment and robust decision making.

Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

Consistent time series rainfall datasets are important in performing climate trend analyses and agro-hydrological modeling. However, temporally consistent ground-based and long-term observed rainfall data are usually lacking for such analyses, especially in mountainous and developing countries. In the absence of such data, satellite-derived rainfall products, such as the Climate Hazard Infrared Precipitations with Stations (CHIRPS) and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrieval (GPM-IMERG) can be used. However, as their performance varies from region to region, it is of interest to evaluate the accuracy of satellite-derived rainfall products at the basin scale using ground-based observations. In this study, we evaluated and demonstrated the performance of the three-run GPM-IMERG (early, late, and final) and CHIRPS rainfall datasets against the ground-based observations over the Ziway Lake Basin in Ethiopia. We performed the analysis at monthly and seasonal time scales from 2000 to 2014, using multiple statistical evaluation criteria and graphical methods. While both GPM-IMERG and CHIRPS showed good agreement with ground-observed rainfall data at monthly and seasonal time scales, the CHIRPS products slightly outperformed the GPM-IMERG products. The study thus concluded that CHIRPS or GPM-IMERG rainfall data can be used as a surrogate in the absence of ground-based observed rainfall data for monthly or seasonal agro-hydrological studies.

Assessing adaptation measures on agricultural water productivity under climate change: A case study of Huai River Basin, China

This study explored an integrated framework to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures on the water productivity (WP) of the agricultural water management (AWM) system in the Huai river basin of China considering climate change impact. The adaptation measures include optimization of cropping pattern (OCP) and upgradation of irrigation techniques (UIT). The delta change method was used to downscale the climate variables from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of general circulation models (GCMs) during 2021-2050, the water footprint theory was used to estimate the spatial distribution of blue water to calculate the WP, and the nonlinear optimization model was used to seek optimal cropping pattern aiming at maximizing the system's WP. The changes in WP due to climate change and adaptation measures (e.g. combinations of OCP and UIT) were compared. Results indicated that WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be 4.56% and 6.51% lower than those under the benchmark scenario, respectively. The mitigation rates to the negative impact of climate change on WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be (1) 3.05% and 3.37% for the combination of spay irrigation technique and OCP, and (2) 4.34% and 4.59% for the combination of drip irrigation technique and OCP, respectively. It was revealed that the combination of drip irrigation and cropping pattern optimization could largely offset the adverse effect from climate change on WP under RCP4.5. Under such a scenario, the total plant areas of wheat and maize would reduce over the basin and so would the net export of crops in the basin; this would lead to a decrease in the crop trade benefit of 7.07 × 10⁹ $ and a relief of 7.50 × 10⁹ m³ of blue water loss. This study results could offer strategic decision support for long-term sustainable AWM of Huai river basin in a changing environment.

Allocation of Groundwater Recharge Zones in a Rural and Semi-Arid Region for Sustainable Water Management: Case Study in Guadalupe Valley, Mexico

Around the world, groundwater constitutes approximately 94% of the total volume of freshwater, providing a wide range of economic and environmental services. In Baja California, Mexico, groundwater provides around 60% of the required demand and has become an essential source for agriculture, industry and domestic use. Particularly, in the Guadalupe Valley, in the municipality of Ensenada, the development of diverse activities depends on the water stored in the aquifer. Among these activities, agroindustry stands out; due to its high value, it represents a regional development factor. The objective of this research consisted of identifying potential aquifer recharge sites as tools for the planning process for regional socio-economic development. The study consisted of four fundamental parts: (1) Compilation and identification of entry data of the recharge model; (2) identification and evaluation of the sites that have a greater or lesser capacity of water recharge, using a geographic information system (GIS); (3) comparison of the model results with the piezometric data of two wells in the study area and their relationship with precipitation events; (4) finally, the development planning instruments of the study area were identified, and the relevance of the present study as a planning tool was evaluated. The results obtained showed that 16.31% and 3.64% of the area presents a high and very high recharge potential, respectively. This article is useful for the authorities and users to develop projects for aquifer recharge in the Guadalupe Valley.

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Zarrine River Basin and Inflow to the Boukan Dam, Iran

The impacts of climate change on the water availability of Zarrine River Basin (ZRB), the headwater of Lake Urmia, in western Iran, with the Boukan Dam, are simulated under various climate scenarios up to year 2029, using the SWAT hydrological model. The latter is driven by meteorological variables predicted from MPI-ESM-LR-GCM (precipitation) and CanESM2-GCM (temperature) GCM models with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, and downscaled with Quantile Mapping (QM) bias-correction and SDSM, respectively. From two variants of QM employed, the Empirical-CDF-QM model decreased the biases of raw GCM- precipitation predictors particularly strongly. SWAT was then calibrated and validated with historical (1981–2011) ZR-streamflow, using the SWAT-CUP model. The subsequent SWAT-simulations for the future period 2012–2029 indicate that the predicted climate change for all RCPs will lead to a reduction of the inflow to Boukan Dam as well as of the overall water yield of ZRB, mainly due to a 23–35% future precipitation reduction, with a concomitant reduction of the groundwater baseflow to the main channel. Nevertheless, the future runoff-coefficient shows a 3%, 2% and 1% increase, as the −2% to −26% decrease of the surface runoff is overcompensated by the named precipitation decrease. In summary, based on these predictions, together with the expecting increase of demands due to the agricultural and other developments, the ZRB is likely to face a water shortage in the near future as the water yield will decrease by −17% to −39%, unless some adaptation plans are implemented for a better management of water resources.

Sustainability Assessment of the Water Management System for the Boukan Dam, Iran, Using CORDEX- South Asia Climate Projections

The present study aimed to quantify the future sustainability of a water supply system using dynamically-downscaled regional climate models (RCMs), produced in the South Asia Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. The case study is the Boukan dam, located on the Zarrine River (ZR) of Urmia’s drying lake basin, Iran. Different CORDEX- models were evaluated for model performance in predicting the temperatures and precipitation in the ZR basin (ZRB). The climate output of the most suitable climate model under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios was then bias-corrected for three 19-year-long future periods (2030, 2050, and 2080), and employed as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) river basin hydrologic model to simulate future Boukan reservoir inflows. Subsequently, the reservoir operation/water demands in the ZRB were modeled using the MODSIM water management tool for two water demand scenarios, i.e., WDcurrent and WDrecom, which represent the current and the more sustainable water demand scenarios, respectively. The reliability of the dam’s water supply for different water uses in the study area was then investigated by computing the supply/demand ratio (SDR). The results showed that, although the SDRs for the WDrecom were generally higher than that of the WDcurrent, the SDRs were all <1, i.e., future water deficits still prevailed. Finally, the performance of the water supply system was evaluated by means of risk, reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, and maximum deficit indices, and the combination of the indices to estimate the Sustainability Group Index (SGI). The findings indicated that, compared to the historical period for both the water demand scenarios, WDcurrent and WDrecom, the average SGI of each RCP would be decreased significantly, particularly, for the more extreme RCP85 scenario. However, as expected, the SGI decrease for the WDrecom was less than that of the WDcurrent, indicating the advantage of implementing this more sustainable water demand scenario.