Quantifying the Spatial Association between Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value: A Case Study in Xi’an, China

A machine learning approach to investigate the impact of land use land cover (LULC) changes on groundwater quality, health risks and ecological risks through GIS and response surface methodology (RSM)

Groundwater resources are enormously affected by land use land cover (LULC) dynamics caused by increasing urbanisation, agricultural and household discharge as a result of global population growth. This study investigates the impact of decadal LULC changes in groundwater quality, human and ecological health from 2009 to 2021 in a diverse landscape, West Bengal, India. Using groundwater quality data from 479 wells in 2009 and 734 well in 2021, a recently proposed Water Pollution Index (WPI) was computed, and its geospatial distribution by a machine learning-based 'Empirical Bayesian Kriging' (EBK) tool manifested a decline in water quality since the number of excellent water category decreased from 30.5% to 28% and polluted water increased from 44% to 45%. ANOVA and Friedman tests revealed statistically significant differences (p < 0.0001) in year-wise water quality parameters as well as group comparisons for both years. Landsat 7 and 8 satellite images were used to classify the LULC types applying machine learning tools for both years, and were coupled with response surface methodology (RSM) for the first time, which revealed that the alteration of groundwater quality were attributed to LULC changes, e.g. WPI showed a positive correlation with built-up areas, village-vegetation cover, agricultural lands, and a negative correlation with surface water, barren lands, and forest cover. Expansion in built-up areas by 0.7%, and village-vegetation orchards by 2.3%, accompanied by a reduction in surface water coverage by 0.6%, and 2.4% in croplands caused a 1.5% drop in excellent water and 1% increase in polluted water category. However, ecological risks through the ecological risk index (ERI) exhibited a lower risk in 2021 attributed to reduced high-risk potential zones. This study highlights the potentiality in linking LULC and water quality changes using some advanced statistical tools like GIS and RSM for better management of water quality and landscape ecology.

Increase in precipitation and fractional vegetation cover promote synergy of ecosystem services in China’s arid regions—Northern sand-stabilization belt

Research on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services (ES) contributes to a better understanding of the linkages between ecosystem functions. Relevant research mainly focuses on mountain areas, while research in arid areas is obviously insufficient. In this research, we use the northern sand-stabilization belt (NSB) as an example to explore how the synergies and trade-offs between different ES vary with the gradient of precipitation and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) over the period 2000-2020. Based on five simulated ecosystem services (habitat provision, sand-stabilization service, water conservation service, soil conservation service and carbon sequestration service), the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the various characteristics of the trade-offs and synergies among the different ES pairs along the FVC and precipitation gradients. Results showed that: Synergies between most paired ES increased significantly with increasing precipitation and FVC. However, ES have different sensitivities to environmental change, FVC promotes bit more synergy of ES pairs than precipitation. The study also found that land use/land cover may be an important driving factor for trade-offs and synergies between paired ES. The findings demonstrate that increased precipitation and FVC promote synergy of ecosystem services in arid regions of China. In the future, it can be investigated whether anthropogenic increase in FVC in arid regions can significantly contribute to the synergy of ES. In the meantime, this study could improve our understanding of arid and semi-arid (or macro-regional) ecosystems and contribute to the development of ecosystem management and conservation measures in NSB.

Impacts of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services Value in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWD) in China is a trans-basin water transfer project for water resource optimization that affects ecosystem services functions along its main transfer line. Exploring the effects of land-use change on ecosystem services in the headwater and receiving areas along the SNWD is conducive to improving the protection of the surrounding ecological environment. However, previous research lacks a comparative analysis of ecosystem services values (ESVs) in these areas. In this study, the land-use dynamic degree index, land-use transfer matrix, and spatial analysis method were used to comparatively analyze the impact of land-use changes on ESVs in the headwater and receiving areas of the SNWD. The results show that cultivated land was the main land use type in the receiving areas and HAER. From 2000 to 2020, CLUDD in the headwater areas was faster than that in the receiving areas. Spatially, in general, the land-use change areas of the receiving areas were larger. During the study period, cultivated land in the headwater areas of the middle route mainly transferred to water areas and forestry areas, while built-up areas mainly occupied cultivated land in the headwater areas of the east route, receiving areas of the middle route, and receiving areas of the east route. From 2000 to 2020, the ESV increased only in the headwater areas of the middle route, while the ESV in the other three sections decreased. The variation extent of ESV in the receiving areas was greater than that in the headwater areas. The results of this study have important policy significance for land use and ecological protection in the headwater and receiving areas of the SNWD in the future.

Evolutionary characteristics of ecosystem services and ecological risks at highly developed economic region: A case study on Yangtze River Delta, China

Ecosystem services (ES) can mitigate ecological risks (ER), yet these services can also be affected by ER. Based on land use data, socioeconomic data, landscape index, and spatial analysis techniques such as spatial autocorrelation, we study the spatial and temporal characteristics of ES and ER in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2019. The conclusions are as follows: (1) During the study period, construction land has been growing rapidly, and the depth, complexity, and intensity of land use have been increasing. The reserve land resources in the Yangtze River Delta are scarce. (2) From 2000 to 2019, the ecosystem service value (ESV) has been declining, with a total loss of 107.562 billion RMB. The area of low ESV continues to grow rapidly, while the area of high ESV continues to shrink. High ecological risk potential exists in rivers, lakes, and coastal areas. (3) Although the ecological environment in economically developed areas is more fragile, the ecological risk potential can be reduced in two ways: strengthening urban clusters, thus improving cooperation and communication among them; and protecting ecosystems with high ES such as water area and forestland. When formulating regional development plans, in addition to socioeconomic benefits, managers and policy makers need to focus on natural benefits as well.

Integrating Spatial Heterogeneity into an Analysis between Ecosystem Service Value and Its Driving Factors: A Case Study of Dalian, China

Human demand for natural resources has grown, leading to ecological debasement and related ecological system administration. Using Dalian as an example, we estimated the changes in the ecosystem service value (ESV) in 2005 and 2020. We used ArcGIS and spatial statistics to conduct estimations and change analyses of the ESV. Based on the results of the ESV, the geographical detector and geographically weighted regression (GWR) elucidated the contributions of different driving factors of the ESV in a 2 km grid. In summary, these results indicated that: (1) from a holistic perspective, the ESV of Dalian fell by 206.8009 billion CNY over 15 years, and the hot spots were concentrated in both the northern and the western parts, whereas the cold spots were distributed in the central part; (2) according to the results from the geographical detector, land use structure factors influenced the ESV most significantly, followed by socio-economic factors, and the impact of natural factors was relatively small; and (3) according to the results of the GWR, land use structure factors negatively affected the ESV, and the positive impact of the proportion of the natural land area was the most obvious. We conclude that the decline in the ESV reflects the impact of human activities on the ecosystem in the studied landscape. Understanding ESV changes should be made a priority in ecosystem management, and evaluating ESV drivers can contribute to developing land use strategies for policy-making.

Spatial–Temporal Variations of Water Ecosystem Services Value and Its Influencing Factors: A Case in Typical Regions of the Central Loess Plateau

Water resources provide indispensable ecosystem services, which are related to human well-being and sustainable social development. Accurately measuring the water ecosystem services value (WESV), and then grasping its changing characteristics, is particularly important for solving water problems. In this study, the typical area of the central Loess Plateau location is taken as the research area. Based on remote sensing images and statistical data, the direct market method combined with the equivalent factor method was used to calculate the WESV including groundwater and surface water, which is of greatest originality. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were analyzed. Then, four WESV driving factors including per capita GDP, population density, proportion of water areas, and water consumption were selected, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern and temporal variation of WESV’s response to the influencing factors. The results showed that WESV experienced a process of first decreasing and then increasing, which was mainly caused by Yulin. For the composition of WESV, the proportion of provisioning services value has increased, which caused the proportion of regulating services value to decrease. The correlations between four factors and WESV were different. The distribution pattern of the influences was spatially heterogeneous, which showed regular variations over time. These results indicate the necessity of WESV’s independent research and provide a realistic basis for ecological compensation in the Yellow River Basin.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services and the Driving Factors in Urban Agglomerations: Evidence From 12 National Urban Agglomerations in China

The natural environment provides multiple ecosystem services for urban development and human quality of life. Given that current cities interact with each other and form urban agglomerations, understanding the spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem services and the driving forces is crucial for sustainable urban development. Using 12 national-level urban agglomerations as a case study, this paper quantifies the spatial patterns of multiple ecosystem service values from 2000 to 2015 and assesses how natural and socioeconomic factors contribute to such changes by using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results show the following: (1) spatial discrepancies of ecosystem services exist both in and between urban agglomerations, and ecosystem service values are reduced in more than 70% of urban agglomerations at a rate ranging from 0.02 to 4.27%; (2) elevation, precipitation, and fraction of woodland have positive impacts on ecosystem service values in urban agglomerations; while gross domestic product (GDP), population, and proportion of built-up area have negative effects; (3) both natural and social driving factors impact the ecosystem services of different urban agglomeration in different ways, according to the differences in their driving degrees. We categorized 12 urban agglomerations in China into six typical types: natural-factor dominated, socioeconomic-factor dominated, policy dominated, balanced, natural-factor inclined, and socioeconomic-factor inclined. Our results can be used to inform decision makers and urban planners to propose explicit location strategies to balance natural protection and socioeconomic development and ultimately promote sustainable urbanization across the nation.

Dynamics of urban landscape nexus spatial dependence of ecosystem services in rapid agglomerate cities of Ethiopia

Understanding the dependence of ecosystem services (ESs) on the dynamics of human-semi nature-coupled ecosystems is crucial for urban ecosystem resilience. In the present study, the responses of ESs to land use land cover transitions were explored and compared, selecting Addis Ababa, Adama, Hawassa, and Bahir Dar cities in Ethiopia. The geospatial data and benefit transfer approach was used to estimate the nexus over a three-decade period (1990-2020). Moreover, the bivariate Moran's I and spatial regression models were employed to analyze the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. The findings showed that the built-up increased by 17,341.0 ha (32.2%), 2151.3 ha (19.6%), 2715.2 ha (12.2%), and 2599.7 ha (15.7%) for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively over the investigated periods. Besides, the total ESV weighed by 24.8%, 8.9%, 0.7%, and 3.9% from the US$ 277.9, 55.5, 100.3, and 90.9 million for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively from1990 to 2020. Synergies occurred among local climate regulation and recreation services, and trade-offs existed among other services. A persistent rising trend in the ESVt was found for all cities the upsurge in Addis Ababa being much sturdier than in others. However, the elasticity of ecosystem of land use (EEL) showed that 1% of the LULC transformation was caused by 8.9% changes in ESV. Besides, the results from the global bivariate Moran's I show substantial positive spatial correlations between ESV, and Integrated Land use Dynamic Degree (ILUDD), Land-Use Intensity (LUI), and Land Use Diversity (LUD) (p < 0.001). Spatial lag model and special error model were shown to be fitting more than the Ordinary Least Square in establishing relationships among the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. In contrast, the aggregated ESV is significantly influenced not only by LULC dynamics but also by the spatial spillover effect. Thus, overall findings suggested an antagonistic nexus between the aggregated ESV and ESVf, since 98% of individual ESs were negatively declined as the built-up ecosystem expanded.

Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China

Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.

Water Quality Pollution Control and Watershed Management Based on Community Participation in Maros City, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Increases in the number of urban residents have significant impacts on spatial pressure, affecting the utilization of river basins. The purpose of this study is to analyze (1) the increase in population and changes in spatial use as determinants of the complexity of the watershed ecosystem; (2) the effect of housing development, urban activity systems, and land use changes on the degradation of the environmental quality of the watershed; and (3) the direct and indirect effects of changes in spatial use, land reclamation, and community behavior on water pollution and the sustainability of watershed management in Maros City. The research method used is a sequential explanatory design combining quantitative and qualitative research methods. Data were obtained through observation, in-depth interviews, surveys, and documentation. The study findings show that land use change, complexity of spatial use, and community behavior have a negative impact on the environmental quality of the watershed. Housing development, urban activity systems, and changes in land use had a significant effect on environmental quality degradation, with a coefficient of determination of 73.9%. Furthermore, the influence of spatial use, land reclamation, and community behavior on water pollution in the watershed was 72.82%. This study may serve to assist the decision-making of and policy formation by the Maros Regency Government in the framework of controlling the use of watersheds, working towards their social, economic, and environmental sustainability.