Flood Prediction Using Machine Learning Models: Literature Review

Enhancing flood risk mitigation by advanced data-driven approach

Flood events in the Sefidrud River basin have historically caused significant damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and human settlements, highlighting the urgent need for improved flood prediction capabilities. Traditional hydrological models have shown limitations in capturing the complex, non-linear relationships inherent in flood dynamics. This study addresses these challenges by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques to develop more accurate and reliable flood estimation models for the region. The study applied Random Forest (RF), Bagging, SMOreg, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models using historical hydrological data spanning 50 years. The methods involved splitting the data into training (50-70 %) and validation sets, processed using WEKA 3.9 software. The evaluation revealed that the nonlinear ensemble RF model achieved the highest accuracy with a correlation of 0.868 and an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.104. Both RF and MLP significantly outperformed the linear SMOreg approach, demonstrating the suitability of modern machine learning techniques. Additionally, the ANFIS model achieved an exceptional R-squared accuracy of 0.99. The findings underscore the potential of data-driven models for accurate flood estimating, providing a valuable benchmark for algorithm selection in flood risk management.

Using algorithmic game theory to improve supervised machine learning: A novel applicability approach in flood susceptibility mapping

This study was carried out with the aim of applying Condorcet and Borda scoring algorithms based on Game Theory (GT) to determine flood points and Flood Susceptibility Mapping (FSM) based on Machine Learning Algorithms (MLA) including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) in the Cheshmeh-Kileh watershed, Iran. Therefore, first, FS conditioning factors including Aspect (As), Elevation (El), Euclidean distance (Euc), Forest (F), NDVI, Precipitation (P), Plan Curvature (PlC), Profile Curvature (PrC), Residential (Re), Rangeland (Rl), Slope (Sl), Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Position Index (TPI), and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) were quantified in each Sub-Watershed (SW). Based on this, flood and non-flood points were identified based on both GT algorithms. In the following, MLAs including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) were used for the distributional mapping of FS. Finally, based on optimal conjunct approaches, FS maps were presented in the study watershed. Based on the results, among the conjunct algorithms in FS classification, RF-Condorcet and RF-Borda models were selected as the most optimal MLA-GT hybrid models. The upstream SWs were highly susceptible. Also, the effectiveness of NDVI and forest conditioning factors in each classification approach was high. The similarity of SW prioritization based on Condorcet algorithm with RF-Condorcet algorithm was about 86.70%. Meanwhile, the degree of similarity in RF-Borda conjunct algorithm was around 73.33%. These results showed that Condorcet algorithm had an optimal classification compared to Borda scoring algorithm.

Forecasting of compound ocean-fluvial floods using machine learning

Flood modelling and forecasting can enhance our understanding of flood mechanisms and facilitate effective management of flood risk. Conventional flood hazard and risk assessments usually consider one driver at a time, whether it is ocean, fluvial or pluvial, without considering the compound nature of flood events. In this paper, we developed a novel approach for modelling and forecasting compound coastal-fluvial floods using a two-step framework. In step one, a hydrodynamic model is used to simulate floodwater propagation; while in step two, machine learning (ML) models are used to generate flood forecasts. The architecture of hydrodynamic-ML forecasting system incorporates a hydrodynamic model covering a specific domain, with individual ML models trained for each pixel. In total 7 ML models including: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Linear Regression (LR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Decision Tree (DT), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were applied in this study. Forecasting compound floods is achieved using two sets of inputs: timeseries of river discharges in the upstream fluvial section and downstream ocean water levels in the coastal areas. The accuracy of the flood forecasting system is demonstrated for Cork City, Ireland; and modelling performance was evaluated using several statistical tools. Results show that the proposed models can provide reliable estimates of flood inundation and associated water depths. Overall, the RBF model exhibits the best performance. Despite the complexity of compound multi-driver floods, this study shows that the coupled hydrodynamic-ML approach can forecast coastal-fluvial flood with limited hydraulic and hydrological input data. This system overcomes the limitations of traditional hydrodynamic model-based systems where trade-offs between the always competing numerical model accuracy and computational time prohibit the model to be used for short-term flood forecasting. Once trained, the ML component of the coupled system can perform flood forecasting in near real-time, potentially integrating into a flood early warning system. Accurate flood forecasting has a wide range of positive societal impacts, including improved flood preparedness, increased confidence, better resource allocation, reduced flood damage, and potentially even flood prevention.

Predicting peak inundation depths with a physics informed machine learning model

Timely, accurate, and reliable information is essential for decision-makers, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators during flood events. This study demonstrates that a proposed machine learning model, MaxFloodCast, trained on physics-based hydrodynamic simulations in Harris County, offers efficient and interpretable flood inundation depth predictions. Achieving an average R 2 of 0.949 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.61 ft (0.19 m) on unseen data, it proves reliable in forecasting peak flood inundation depths. Validated against Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda, MaxFloodCast shows the potential in supporting near-time floodplain management and emergency operations. The model's interpretability aids decision-makers in offering critical information to inform flood mitigation strategies, to prioritize areas with critical facilities and to examine how rainfall in other watersheds influences flood exposure in one area. The MaxFloodCast model enables accurate and interpretable inundation depth predictions while significantly reducing computational time, thereby supporting emergency response efforts and flood risk management more effectively.

Physically based vs. data-driven models for streamflow and reservoir volume prediction at a data-scarce semi-arid basin

Physically based or data-driven models can be used for understanding basinwide hydrological processes and creating predictions for future conditions. Physically based models use physical laws and principles to represent hydrological processes. In contrast, data-driven models focus on input-output relationships. Although both approaches have found applications in hydrology, studies that compare these approaches are still limited for data-scarce, semi-arid basins with altered hydrological regimes. This study aims to compare the performances of a physically based model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)) and a data-driven model (Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous model (NARX)) for reservoir volume and streamflow prediction in a data-scarce semi-arid region. The study was conducted in the Tersakan Basin, a semi-arid agricultural basin in Türkiye, where the basin hydrology was significantly altered due to reservoirs (Ladik and Yedikir Reservoir) constructed for irrigation purposes. The models were calibrated and validated for streamflow and reservoir volumes. The results show that (1) NARX performed better in the prediction of water volumes of Ladik and Yedikir Reservoirs and streamflow at the basin outlet than SWAT (2). The SWAT and NARX models both provided the best performance when predicting water volumes at the Ladik reservoir. Both models provided the second best performance during the prediction of water volumes at the Yedikir reservoir. The model performances were the lowest for prediction of streamflow at the basin outlet (3). Comparison of physically based and data-driven models is challenging due to their different characteristics and input data requirements. In this study, the data-driven model provided higher performance than the physically based model. However, input data used for establishing the physically based model had several uncertainties, which may be responsible for the lower performance. Data-driven models can provide alternatives to physically-based models under data-scarce conditions.

Research on nowcasting prediction technology for flooding scenarios based on data-driven and real-time monitoring

With the impact of global climate change and the urbanization process, the risk of urban flooding has increased rapidly, especially in developing countries. Real-time monitoring and prediction of flooding extent and drainage system are the foundation of effective urban flood emergency management. Therefore, this paper presents a rapid nowcasting prediction method of urban flooding based on data-driven and real-time monitoring. The proposed method firstly adopts a small number of monitoring points to deduce the urban global real-time water level based on a machine learning algorithm. Then, a data-driven method is developed to achieve dynamic urban flooding nowcasting prediction with real-time monitoring data and high-accuracy precipitation prediction. The results show that the average MAE and RMSE of the urban flooding and conduit system in the deduction method for water level are 0.101 and 0.144, 0.124 and 0.162, respectively, while the flooding depth deduction is more stable compared to the conduit system by probabilistic statistical analysis. Moreover, the urban flooding nowcasting method can accurately predict the flooding depth, and the R2 are as high as 0.973 and 0.962 of testing. The urban flooding nowcasting prediction method provides technical support for emergency flood risk management.

Assessment of surrogate models for flood inundation: The physics-guided LSG model vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models

Hydrodynamic models can accurately simulate flood inundation but are limited by their high computational demand that scales non-linearly with model complexity, resolution, and domain size. Therefore, it is often not feasible to use high-resolution hydrodynamic models for real-time flood predictions or when a large number of predictions are needed for probabilistic flood design. Computationally efficient surrogate models have been developed to address this issue. The recently developed Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian Process Learning (LSG) model has shown strong performance in both computational efficiency and simulation accuracy. The LSG model is a physics-guided surrogate model that simulates flood inundation by first using an extremely coarse and simplified (i.e. low-fidelity) hydrodynamic model to provide an initial estimate of flood inundation. Then, the low-fidelity estimate is upskilled via Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis and Sparse Gaussian Process models to provide accurate high-resolution predictions. Despite the promising results achieved thus far, the LSG model has not been benchmarked against other surrogate models. Such a comparison is needed to fully understand the value of the LSG model and to provide guidance for future research efforts in flood inundation simulation. This study compares the LSG model to four state-of-the-art surrogate flood inundation models. The surrogate models are assessed for their ability to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of flood inundation for events both within and beyond the range used for model training. The models are evaluated for three distinct case studies in Australia and the United Kingdom. The LSG model is found to be superior in accuracy for both flood extent and water depth, including when applied to flood events outside the range of training data used, while achieving high computational efficiency. In addition, the low-fidelity model is found to play a crucial role in achieving the overall superior performance of the LSG model.

Physics-informed neural networks as surrogate models of hydrodynamic simulators

In response to growing concerns surrounding the relationship between climate change and escalating flood risk, there is an increasing urgency to develop precise and rapid flood prediction models. Although high-resolution flood simulations have made notable advancements, they remain computationally expensive, underscoring the need for efficient machine learning surrogate models. As a result of sparse empirical observation and expensive data collection, there is a growing need for the models to perform effectively in 'small-data' contexts, a characteristic typical of many scientific problems. This research combines the latest developments in surrogate modelling and physics-informed machine learning to propose a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network-based surrogate model for hydrodynamic simulators governed by Shallow Water Equations. The proposed method incorporates physics-based prior information into the neural network structure by encoding the conservation of mass into the model without relying on calculating continuous derivatives in the loss function. The method is demonstrated for a high-resolution inland flood simulation model and a large-scale regional tidal model. The proposed method outperforms the existing state-of-the-art data-driven approaches by up to 25 %. This research demonstrates the benefits and robustness of physics-informed approaches in surrogate modelling for flood and hydroclimatic modelling problems.

Geospatial patterns in runoff projections using random forest based forecasting of time-series data for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States

This research explores the geospatial patterns of historical runoff for the period 1958-2021 in the Mid-Atlantic region and uses these time-series data plus nine external climatic and hydrologic variables to predict future runoff for the period 2022-2031. Gridded, average monthly climatic water balance data were obtained from the TerraClimate dataset. A cluster analysis of the long term (1958-2021) historical runoff found 13 significant temporal trends, which tend to form large contiguous regions associated with climate gradients and topographic patterns. The runoff time-series clusters, and the associated time-series of 9 TerraClimate variables, were used to generate random forest based forecast models to predict future (2022-2031) runoff. The random forest-based forecast with the greatest accuracy included inputs of actual evapotranspiration, climate water deficit, minimum, average, and maximum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. The final model predicted significantly increasing runoff in nine of the 13 clusters.

Nowcast flood predictions in the Amazon watershed based on the remotely sensed rainfall product PDIRnow and artificial neural networks

The aim of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict floods in the Branco River, Amazon basin. The input data for the models included the river levels and the average rainfall within the drainage area of the basin, which was estimated from the remotely sensed rainfall product PDIRnow. The hourly water level data used in the study were recorded by fluviometric telemetric stations belonging to the National Agency of Water. The multilayer perceptron was used as the neural framework of the ANNs, and the number of neurons in each layer of the model was determined via optimization with the SCE-UA algorithm. Most of the fitted ANN models showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values greater than 0.9. It is possible to conclude that the ANNs are effective for predicting the flood levels of the Branco River, with horizons of 6, 12 and 24 h; thus, constituting a viable option for use in river-flood warning systems in the Amazon basin. For the forecast with a 24-h horizon, it is essential to include the average rainfall of the basin that accumulated over the last 48 h as input data into the ANNs, along with the levels measured by the streamflow stations. The indirect rainfall estimates provided by PDIRnow are an excellent alternative as input data for ANN models used to predict floods and constitute a viable solution for regions where the density of rain gauge stations is low, as is the case in the Amazon basin.

Ecology & computer audition: Applications of audio technology to monitor organisms and environment

Among the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proposed within the 2030 Agenda and adopted by all the United Nations member states, the 13th SDG is a call for action to combat climate change. Moreover, SDGs 14 and 15 claim the protection and conservation of life below water and life on land, respectively. In this work, we provide a literature-founded overview of application areas, in which computer audition - a powerful but in this context so far hardly considered technology, combining audio signal processing and machine intelligence - is employed to monitor our ecosystem with the potential to identify ecologically critical processes or states. We distinguish between applications related to organisms, such as species richness analysis and plant health monitoring, and applications related to the environment, such as melting ice monitoring or wildfire detection. This work positions computer audition in relation to alternative approaches by discussing methodological strengths and limitations, as well as ethical aspects. We conclude with an urgent call to action to the research community for a greater involvement of audio intelligence methodology in future ecosystem monitoring approaches.

Research on a UAV spray system combined with grid atomized droplets

Backgrounds

UAVs for crop protection hold significant potential for application in mountainous orchard areas in China. However, certain issues pertaining to UAV spraying need to be addressed for further technological advancement, aimed at enhancing crop protection efficiency and reducing pesticide usage. These challenges include the potential for droplet drift, limited capacity for pesticide solution. Consequently, efforts are required to overcome these limitations and optimize UAV spraying technology.

Methods

In order to balance high deposition and low drift in plant protection UAV spraying, this study proposes a plant protection UAV spraying method. In order to study the operational effects of this spraying method, this study conducted a UAV spray and grid impact test to investigate the effects of different operational parameters on droplet deposition and drift. Meanwhile, a spray model was constructed using machine learning techniques to predict the spraying effect of this method.

Results and discussion

This study investigated the droplet deposition rate and downwind drift rate on three types of citrus trees: traditional densely planted trees, dwarf trees, and hedged trees, considering different particle sizes and UAV flight altitudes. Analyzing the effect of increasing the grid on droplet coverage and deposition density for different tree forms. The findings demonstrated a significantly improved droplet deposition rate on dwarf and hedged citrus trees compared to traditional densely planted trees and adopting a fixed-height grid increased droplet coverage and deposition density for both the densely planted and trellised citrus trees, but had the opposite effect on dwarfed citrus trees. When using the grid system. Among the factors examined, the height of the sampling point exhibited the greatest influence on the droplet deposition rate, whereas UAV flight height and droplet particle size had no significant impact. The distance in relation to wind direction had the most substantial effect on droplet drift rate. In terms of predicting droplet drift rate, the BP neural network performed inadequately with a coefficient of determination of 0.88. Conversely, REGRESS, ELM, and RBFNN yielded similar and notably superior results with a coefficient of determination greater than 0.95. Notably, ELM demonstrated the smallest root mean square error.

Enhancing urban flood forecasting in drainage systems using dynamic ensemble-based data mining

This study presents a novel approach for urban flood forecasting in drainage systems using a dynamic ensemble-based data mining model which has yet to be utilised properly in this context. The proposed method incorporates an event identification technique and rainfall feature extraction to develop weak learner data mining models. These models are then stacked to create a time-series ensemble model using a decision tree algorithm and confusion matrix-based blending method. The proposed model was compared to other commonly used ensemble models in a real-world urban drainage system in the UK. The results show that the proposed model achieves a higher hit rate compared to other benchmark models, with a hit rate of around 85% vs 70 % for the next 3 h of forecasting. Additionally, the proposed smart model can accurately classify various timesteps of flood or non-flood events without significant lag times, resulting in fewer false alarms, reduced unnecessary risk management actions, and lower costs in real-time early warning applications. The findings also demonstrate that two features, "antecedent precipitation history" and "seasonal time occurrence of rainfall," significantly enhance the accuracy of flood forecasting with a hit rate accuracy ranging from 60 % to 10 % for a lead time of 15 min to 3 h.

A growing global threat: Long-term trends show cropland exposure to flooding on the rise

Flooding is one of the most widespread and catastrophic natural disasters. The exposure of cropland to floods is directly related to the quality of cropland and food security, so it is particularly important to map the spatiotemporal evolution of this exposure, with a specific focus on longer time series and higher resolution scales. This study is the first of its kind to analyse the worldwide spatiotemporal variability of Cropland Exposure to Flooding (CEF) with the 30 m resolution of Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) dataset during 2000-2019. The findings indicate that: (1) the global CEF area increased by a total of 83,429.50 km2 or 7.75 %, from 2000 to 2019; (2) only North America's CEF showed a downward trend, and the region with the largest increase in CEF was South Asia; (3) the CEF in 23 river basins, including Ganges, Indus, Mississippi, Yangtze, and Danube, accounted for 79.88 % of the global total in 2019P; (4) in 2019P, China had the largest CEF globally, reaching 239,525.07 km2. The fastest growing CEF was India, contributing 16.36 % of the global CEF growth. The CEF of United States experienced a reduction trend; (5) two constructed indicators were used in evaluating the CEF of countries worldwide, and a total of 46 countries are considered to be at the highest level of risk, mainly in Europe and Asia. Based on these conclusions, we carried out a cold/hot spot analysis to reveal the spatial heterogeneity and possible driving factors in this phenomenon, and we offer management suggestions to limit the risks to cropland in the floodplains.

Large-scale seasonal forecasts of river discharge by coupling local and global datasets with a stacked neural network: Case for the Loire River system

Accurate prediction of river discharge is critical for a wide range of sectors, from human activities to environmental hazard management, especially in the face of increasing demand for water resources and climate change. To address this need, a multivariate model that incorporates both local and global data sources, including river and piezometer gauges, sea level, and climate parameters. By employing phase shift analysis, the model optimizes correlations between the target discharge and 12 parameters related to hydrologic and climatic systems, all sampled daily. In addition, a stacked LSTM - a more complex neural network architecture - is used to improve information extraction ability. Exploring river dynamics in the Loire-Bretagne basin and its surroundings, the investigation delves into predictions in daily time steps for one, three, and six months ahead. The resulting forecast features high accuracy and efficiency in predicting river discharge fluctuations, showcasing superior performance in forecasting drought periods over flood peaks. A detailed examination on data used highlights the significance of both local and global datasets in predicting river discharge, where the former dictates short-term predictions, while the latter drives long-range forecasts. Seasonally extended forecasting confirms a strong connection between the forecast leading time and the shift in data correlation, with lower correlation at a lag of 3 months due to seasonal changes affecting forecast quality, compensated by a higher correlation at a longer lag of 6 months. Such mutual effect in this multi-time-step forecasting improves the predictive quality of a six-month horizon, thus encourages progress in long-term prediction to a seasonal scale. The research establishes a practical foundation for effectively utilizing big data to leverage long-term forecasting of environmental dynamics.

Between flood and drought: How cities are facing water surplus and scarcity

Droughts and floods are weather-related hazards affecting cities in all climate zones and causing human deaths and material losses on all inhabited continents. The aim of this article is to review, analyse and discuss in detail the problems faced by urban ecosystems due to water surplus and scarcity, as well as the need of adaptation to climate change taking into account the legislation, current challenges and knowledge gaps. The literature review indicated that urban floods are much more recognised than urban droughts. Amongst floods, flash floods are currently the most challenging, which by their nature are difficult to monitor. Research and adaptation measures related to water-released hazards use cutting-edge technologies for risk assessment, decision support systems, or early warning systems, among others, but in all areas knowledge gaps for urban droughts are evident. Increasing urban retention and introducing Low Impact Development and Nature-based Solutions is a remedy for both droughts and floods in cities. There is the need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies and creating a holistic approach.

The application of integrating comprehensive evaluation and clustering algorithms weighted by maximal information coefficient for urban flood susceptibility

Different sub-regions of Zhengzhou city have various levels of sensitivity to flood due to the impact of urbanization. Thus, an accurate flood sensitivities assessment is a key tool for flood prevention and urban planning and development. To successfully link the urban flood sensitivity assessment with the real flood situation, a method combining clustering algorithm with comprehensive evaluation is presented. The proposed method is not affected by the classification standard of sensitivities levels and has a small and undemanding demand for flood data. First, Maximal Information Coefficient between conditional factors and flood is employed to determine the weight. Then, the different results are obtained by three clustering algorithms. Finally, a four-layer evaluation structure weighted by analytic hierarchy process is established to select the best flood susceptibility map. A case study in the Zhengzhou city, China shows that the positive scale amplification strategy is relatively best and the flood sensitivity of sub-regions in Zhengzhou city should be divided into four levels obtained by K-Means clustering. Hence, it supplies the valuable insights for the urban planning and flood mitigation.

Artificial intelligence and internet of things oriented sustainable precision farming: Towards modern agriculture

Agriculture encompasses the study, practice, and discipline of plant cultivation. Agriculture has an extensive history dating back thousands of years. Depending on climate and terrain, it began independently in various locations on the planet. In comparison to what could be sustained by foraging and gathering, agriculture has the potential to significantly increase the human population. Throughout the twenty-first century, precision farming (PF) has increased the agricultural output. precision agriculture (PA) is a technology-enabled method of agriculture that assesses, monitors, and evaluates the needs of specific fields and commodities. The primary objective of this farming method, as opposed to conventional farming, is to increase crop yields and profitability through the precise application of inputs. This work describes in depth the development and function of artificial intelligence (AI) and the internet of things (IoT) in contemporary agriculture. Modern day-to-day applications rely extensively on AI and the IoT. Modern agriculture leverages AI and IoT for technological advancement. This improves the accuracy and profitability of modern agriculture. The use of AI and IoT in modern smart precision agricultural applications is highlighted in this work and the method proposed incorporates specific steps in PF and demonstrates superior performance compared to existing classification methods. It achieves a remarkable accuracy of 98.65%, precision of 98.32%, and recall rate of 97.65% while retaining competitive execution time of 0.23 s, when analysing PF using the FAOSTAT benchmark dataset. Additionally, crucial equipment and methods used in PF are described and the vital advantages and real-time tools utilised in PA are covered in detail.

Application of IoT technology based on neural networks in basketball training motion capture and injury prevention

Basketball players need to frequently engage in various physical movements during the game, which puts a certain burden on their bodies and can easily lead to various sports injuries. Therefore, it is crucial to prevent sports injuries in basketball teaching. This paper also studies basketball motion track capture. Basketball motion capture preserves the motion posture information of the target person in three-dimensional space. Because the motion capture system based on machine vision often encounters problems such as occlusion or self occlusion in the application scene, human motion capture is still a challenging problem in the current research field. This article designs a multi perspective human motion trajectory capture algorithm framework, which uses a two-dimensional human motion pose estimation algorithm based on deep learning to estimate the position distribution of human joint points on the two-dimensional image from each perspective. By combining the knowledge of camera poses from multiple perspectives, the three-dimensional spatial distribution of joint points is transformed, and the final evaluation result of the target human 3D pose is obtained. This article applies the research results of neural networks and IoT devices to basketball motion capture methods, further developing basketball motion capture systems.

Analytical Investigation of the Impact of Jet Geometry on Aeration Effectiveness Using Soft Computing Techniques

Jet aeration is a commonly used technique for introducing air into water during wastewater treatment. In this investigation, the efficacy of different soft computing models, namely, Random Forest, Reduced Error Pruning Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gaussian Process, and Support Vector Machine, was examined in predicting the aeration efficiency (E20) of circular and square jet configurations in an open channel flow. A total of 126 experimental data points were utilized to develop and validate these models. To assess the models' performance, three goodness-of-fit parameters were employed: correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The analysis revealed that all of the developed models exhibited predictive capabilities, with CC values surpassing 0.8. Nonetheless, when it comes to predicting E20, the ANN model outperformed other soft computing models, achieving a CC of 0.9748, MAE of 0.0164, and RMSE of 0.0211. A sensitivity analysis emphasized that the angle of inclination exerted the most significant influence on the aeration in an open channel. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that square jets delivered superior aeration compared to that of circular jets under identical operating conditions.

Monitoring Kikuletwa river levels in northern Tanzania: A data set unlocking insights for effective flood early warning systems

Floods are a recurring natural disaster that pose significant risks to communities and infrastructure. The lack of reliable and accurate data on river systems in developing countries has hindered the development of effective flood early warning systems. This paper presents a data set collected using ultrasonic distance sensors installed at two locations along the Kikuletwa River in the Pangani River Basin, Northern Tanzania. The dataset consists of hourly measurements of river water levels, providing a high-resolution time series that can be used to study trends in water level changes and to develop more accurate flood early warning systems. The Kikuletwa River dataset has significant potential applications for flood management, including the calibration and validation of hydrological models, the identification of critical thresholds for flood warning, and the evaluation of flood forecasting techniques. The dataset can also be used to study the hydrological processes in the basin, such as the relationship between rainfall and river discharge, and to develop more efficient and effective flood management strategies. The ultrasonic distance sensors were configured to record river level data at hourly intervals, providing a continuous time series of river levels. The data was subjected to quality control procedures to ensure accuracy and consistency, and missing or erroneous data was corrected or removed where necessary.

Flood discharge prediction using improved ANFIS model combined with hybrid particle swarm optimisation and slime mould algorithm

Due to the disastrous socio-economic impacts of flood hazards and estimated rise of its occurrences in the near future, there has been an increase in the importance of flood prediction worldwide. Artificial intelligence (AI) models have contributed significantly by giving cost-effective solutions for simulating physical processes of flood events and improving accuracy in prediction over the last few decades. This paper presents a novel conjoint model to forecast river flood discharge (QFD) considering data from four gauging stations of River Brahmani, Odisha India. The developed hybridised metaheuristic algorithm, i.e. ANFIS-PSOSMA, improves exploration capability of Slime mould algorithm (SMA) by integrating it with particle swarm optimisation (PSO). Performance of novel hybrid model is assessed by utilising quantitative statistical measures like the coefficient of correlation (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The proposed hybrid ANFIS model using optimisation algorithm provided the best performance values with NSE of 0.9952, R2 of 0.9946, RMSE of 0.0485, and MAE of 0.0265 during training and NSE of 0.9736, R2 of 0.9731, RMSE of 8.4236, and MAE of 4.3197 during testing at Jenapur gauging station, indicating the prospective of utilising the developed models in forecasting flood discharge. The present study's importance lies in integrating several input parameters, and AI algorithms have been utilised for developing flood prediction model. In addition, the attained results indicated that combining the optimisation algorithms with ANFIS enhanced its performance in modelling monthly flood discharge time series.

Long-run forecasting surface and groundwater dynamics from intermittent observation data: An evaluation for 50 years

The accurate prediction of water dynamics is critical for operational water resource management. In this study, we propose a novel approach to perform long-term forecasts of daily water dynamics, including river levels, river discharges, and groundwater levels, with a lead time of 7-30 days. The approach is based on the state-of-the-art neural network, bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), to enhance the accuracy and consistency of dynamic predictions. The operation of this forecasting system relies on an in-situ database observed for over 50 years with records gauging in 19 rivers, the karst aquifer, the English Channel, and the meteorological network in Normandy, France. To address the problem of missing measurements and gauge installations over time, we developed an adaptive scheme in which the neural network is regularly adjusted and re-trained in response to changing inputs during a long operation. Advances in BiLSTM with extensive learning past-to-future and future-to-past further help to avoid time-lag calibration that simplifies data processing. The proposed approach provides high accuracy and consistent prediction for the three water dynamics within a similar accuracy range as an on-site observation, with approximately 3 % error in the measurement range for the 7 day-ahead predictions and 6 % error for the 30 d-ahead predictions. The system also effectively fills the gap in actual measurements and detects anomalies at gauges that can last for years. Working with multiple dynamics not only proves that the data-driven model is a unified approach but also reveals the impact of the physical background of the dynamics on the performance of their predictions. Groundwater undergoes a slow filtration process following a low-frequency fluctuation, favoring long-term prediction, which differs from other higher-frequency river dynamics. The physical nature drives the predictive performance even when using a data-driven model.

Super ensemble based streamflow simulation using multi-source remote sensing and ground gauged rainfall data fusion

Traditional data-driven streamflow predictions usually apply a single model with inconsistent performance in different variability conditions. These days model ensembles or merging the benefits of different models without losing the general character of the data are becoming a trend in hydrology. This study compared three super ensemble learners with eight base models. Twelve years of monthly rolled daily time series data in three river catchments of Ethiopia (Borkena watershed: Awash river basin), (Gummera watershed: Abay river basin), and (Sore watershed: Baro Akobo river basin) is used for single-step daily streamflow simulation using previous thirty-day input timesteps. Five input scenarios are applied: three vegetation indices, three remote sensing-based precipitation products, ground-gauged rainfall, all fused inputs, and selected inputs with the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) algorithm. The time series is then divided into training and testing datasets with a ratio of 80:20. The performance of the proposed models was evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R²), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Median Absolute Error (MEDAE). Finally, the result is presented with the corresponding five input scenarios. The catchment's and input scenario's average performance indicated that the three super ensemble learners outperformed the eight base models with relatively stable performance. The top-ranked WASE model exceeded the linear regression baseline by 13.3%. XGB, CNN-GRU, and LSTM proved the highest performance of the base models. This study also revealed that LSTM's key downside is its performance drop in the absence of feature selection criteria. In comparison, XGB showed its superior performance after controlling redundant inputs internally. Moreover, this study uniquely highlights the potential of remote sensing-based vegetation indices in the science of data-driven streamflow modelling for non-gauged catchments with no meteorological time series.

Assessing the impacts of dam/weir operation on streamflow predictions using LSTM across South Korea

Recently, weather data have been applied to one of deep learning techniques known as "long short-term memory (LSTM)" to predict streamflow in rainfall-runoff relationships. However, this approach may not be suitable for regions with artificial water management structures such as dams and weirs. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the prediction accuracy of LSTM for streamflow depending on the availability of dam/weir operational data across South Korea. Four scenarios were prepared for 25 streamflow stations. Scenarios #1 and #2 used weather data and weather and dam/weir operational data, respectively, with the same LSTM model conditions for all stations. Scenarios #3 and #4 used weather data and weather and dam/weir operational data, respectively, with the different LSTM models for individual stations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were adopted to assess the LSTM's performance. The results indicated that the mean values of NSE and RMSE were 0.277 and 292.6 (Scenario #1), 0.482 and 214.3 (Scenario #2), 0.410 and 260.7 (Scenario #3), and 0.592 and 181.1 (Scenario #4), respectively. Overall, the model performance was improved by the addition of dam/weir operational data, with an increase in NSE values of 0.182-0.206 and a decrease in RMSE values of 78.2-79.6. Surprisingly, the degree of performance improvement varied according to the operational characteristics of the dam/weir, and the performance tended to increase when the dam/weir with high frequency and great amount of water discharge was included. Our findings showed that the overall LSTM prediction of streamflow was improved by the inclusion of dam/weir operational data. When using dam/weir operational data to predict streamflow using LSTM, understanding of their operational characteristics is important to obtain reliable streamflow predictions.

The interaction of topographic slope with various geo-environmental flood-causing factors on flood prediction and susceptibility mapping

This work integrates topographic slope with other geo-environmental flood-causing factors in order to improve the accuracy of flood prediction and susceptibility mapping using logistic regression (LR) model. The work was done for the eastern Jeddah watersheds in Saudi Arabia, where flash floods constitute a danger. A geospatial dataset with 140 historical flood records and twelve geo-environmental flood-causing factors was constructed. A number of significant statistical methods were also applied to provide reliable flood prediction and susceptibility mapping, including Jarque-Bera, Pearson's correlation, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and heterogeneity analyses. The results of the models are validated using the area under curve (AUC) and other seven statistical measures. These statistical measures include accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SST), specificity (SPF), negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and Cohn's Kappa (K). Results showed that both in training and testing datasets, the LR model with the slope as a moderating variable (LR-SMV) outperformed the classical LR model. For both models (LR and LR-SMV), the adjusted R2 is 88.9 and 89.2%, respectively. The majority of the flood-causing factors in the LR-SMV model had lower Sig. R values than in the LR model. As compared to the LR model, the LR-SMV attained the highest values of PPV (90%), NPV (93%), SST (92%), SPF (90%), ACC (89%), and K (81%), for both training and testing data. Moreover, employing slope as a moderating variable demonstrated its viability and reliability for defining precisely flood-susceptibility zones in order to reduce flood risks.

Enhancing flood susceptibility modeling using multi-temporal SAR images, CHIRPS data, and hybrid machine learning algorithms

Flood susceptibility maps are useful tool for planners and emergency management professionals in the early warning and mitigation stages of floods. In this study, Sentinel-1 dB radar images, which provide Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) data were used to delineate flooded and non-flooded locations. 12 input parameters, including elevation, lithology, drainage density, rainfall, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), curvature, ground slope, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), soil, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and distance from the river, were selected for model development. The importance of each input parameter on flood occurrences was assessed via the Mutual Information (MI) technique. Several machine learning models, including Radial Basis Function (RBF), and three hybrid models of Bagging (BA-RBF), Random Committee (RC-RBF), and Random Subspace (RSS-RBF), were developed to delineate flood susceptibility areas at Goorganrood watershed, Iran. The performance of each model was evaluated using several error indicators, including correlation coefficient (r), Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Mean Absolute Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC). The results showed that the hybrid techniques enhanced the modeling performance of the standalone model, and generally, all hybrid models are more accurate than the standalone model. Although all developed models have performed well, RC-RBF outperforms all of them (AUC = 0.997), followed by BA-RBF (AUC = 0.996), RSS-RBF (AUC = 0.992), and RBF (AUC = 0.975). Generally, about 12 % of the study area has high and very high susceptibility to future flood occurrences.

Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters Affecting Wetland Water Levels: A Study of Flood Detention Basin, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Wetlands play a vital role in ecosystems. They help in flood accumulation, water purification, groundwater recharge, shoreline stabilization, provision of habitats for flora and fauna, and facilitation of recreation activities. Although wetlands are hot spots of biodiversity, they are one of the most endangered ecosystems on the Earth. This is not only due to anthropogenic activities but also due to changing climate. Many studies can be found in the literature to understand the water levels of wetlands with respect to the climate; however, there is a lack of identification of the major meteorological parameters affecting the water levels, which are much localized. Therefore, this study, for the first time in Sri Lanka, was carried out to understand the most important parameters affecting the water depth of the Colombo flood detention basin. The temporal behavior of water level fluctuations was tested among various combinations of hydro-meteorological parameters with the help of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). As expected, rainfall was found to be the most impacting parameter; however, apart from that, some interesting combinations of meteorological parameters were found as the second layer of impacting parameters. The rainfall-nighttime relative humidity, rainfall-evaporation, daytime relative humidity-evaporation, and rainfall-nighttime relative humidity-evaporation combinations were highly impactful toward the water level fluctuations. The findings of this study help to sustainably manage the available wetlands in Colombo, Sri Lanka. In addition, the study emphasizes the importance of high-resolution on-site data availability for higher prediction accuracy.

Progress and opportunities in advancing near-term forecasting of freshwater quality

Near-term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub-daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near-term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water-related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near-term forecasts of water quantity and that near-term water quality forecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non-operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near-term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end-user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near-term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management.

Data-driven predictive modeling in risk assessment: Challenges and directions for proper uncertainty representation

Data-driven predictive modeling is increasingly being used in risk assessments. While such modeling may provide improved consequence predictions and probability estimates, it also comes with challenges. One is that the modeling and its output does not measure and represent uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, that is, "epistemic uncertainty." In this article, we demonstrate this point by conceptually linking the main elements and output of data-driven predictive models with the main elements of a general risk description, thereby placing data-driven predictive modeling on a risk science foundation. This allows for an evaluation of such modeling with reference to risk science recommendations for what constitutes a complete risk description. The evaluation leads us to conclude that, as a minimum, to cover all elements of a complete risk description a risk assessment using data-driven predictive modeling needs to be supported by assessments of the uncertainty and risk related to the assumptions underlying the modeling. In response to this need, we discuss an approach for assessing assumptions in data-driven predictive modeling.

The role of teleconnections and solar activity on the discharge of tropical river systems within the Niger basin

The behavior of tropical river systems is driven by some internal and external factors. Understanding the role of these external forces, such as large-scale oscillations, on river discharge will provide insight into their dynamic complexities and modelling. In this study, the role of teleconnection patterns and solar activity on river discharges within the Niger basin was considered using both linear (correlation) and nonlinear (multifractal and joint recurrence analysis) statistical approaches. Correlation analysis suggests the existence of a linear relationship between tropical teleconnection patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans with river discharge in the Niger basin. Nonlinear relationships were investigated using multifractal formalism and joint recurrence quantification analysis. A strong nonlinear relationship was observed between the teleconnection patterns and river discharge in Diola while other stations (Koulikoro, Ansongo, Niamey, Mopti, Kirango) showed no such relationship. The observation at Diola is attributed to its location (coastal) among other things. The multifractal strengths were found in the range of 0.58-2.86, suggesting fractal correlations between the parameters. There was no conclusive evidence of a linear and nonlinear relationship between solar activity and tropical river discharge within the Niger basin.

Transfer performance of gated recurrent unit model for runoff prediction based on the comprehensive spatiotemporal similarity of catchments

Accurate runoff prediction in data-poor catchments is important for water resource management, flood mitigation, environmental protection, and other tasks. One possible solution is to transfer a runoff prediction model constructed by using a machine learning model for gauged catchments to data-poor catchments. However, the transfer of runoff prediction model must consider the comprehensive spatiotemporal similarities between the catchments; otherwise, the transfer performance can be massively uncertain. Therefore, to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction and eliminate the uncertainty in identifying the differences between catchment environments, this paper proposes a novel measurement approach of comprehensive spatiotemporal similarity. This approach measures the similarities among catchments by fully considering which of the various catchments' spatiotemporal attributes can better represent the geographical similarity. Then, according to the similarities between the catchments, a runoff prediction model trained in gauged catchments is transformed for the most similar data-poor catchments to predict the runoff and the transfer performance is analyzed. To this end, a runoff prediction model is built using a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network based on the CAMELS catchments data set. A framework to extract the comprehensive spatiotemporal features of catchments is designed using three autoencoders. The catchments' similarities can be measured, further, and their spatiotemporal attributes determined once a measurement model of comprehensive spatiotemporal similarity is constructed. Finally, the transfer performance of the GRU runoff prediction model based on comprehensive spatiotemporal and other geographical similarities is evaluated and analyzed. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms comparable approaches.

Adaptation measures under the impacts of climate and land-use/land-cover changes using HSPF model simulation: Application to Gongola river basin, Nigeria

Recently, there is an upsurge in flood emergencies in Nigeria, in which their frequencies and impacts are expected to exacerbate in the future due to land-use/land cover (LULC) and climate change stressors. The separate and combined forces of these stressors on the Gongola river basin is feebly understood and the probable future impacts are not clear. Accordingly, this study uses a process-based watershed modelling approach - the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) (i) to understand the basin's current and future hydrological fluxes and (ii) to quantify the effectiveness of five management options as adaptation measures for the impacts of the stressors. The ensemble means of the three models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for generating future climate scenarios, considering three distinct radiative forcing peculiar to the study area. Also, the historical and future LULC (developed from the hybrid of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model) are used to produce the LULC scenarios for the basin. The effective calibration, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are used for optimising the parameters of the model and the validated result implies a plausible model with efficiency of up to 75 %. Consequently, the results of individual impacts of the stressors yield amplification of the peak flows, with more profound impacts from climate stressor than the LULC. Therefore, the climate impact may trigger a marked peak discharge that is 48 % higher as compared to the historical peak flows which are equivalent to 10,000-year flood event. Whilst the combine impacts may further amplify this value by 27 % depending on the scenario. The proposed management interventions such as planned reforestation and reservoir at Dindima should attenuate the disastrous peak discharges by almost 36 %. Furthermore, the land management option should promote the carbon-sequestering project of the Paris agreement ratified by Nigeria. While the reservoir would serve secondary functions of energy production; employment opportunities, aside other social aspects. These measures are therefore expected to mitigate feasibly the negative impacts anticipated from the stressors and the approach can be employed in other river basins in Africa confronted with similar challenges.

Uncertainty analysis in probabilistic design of detention rockfill dams using Monte-Carlo simulation model and probabilistic frequency analysis of stability factors

The detention rockfill dams are of promising importance in flood control projects, due to their minimal technical requirement, low cost, minimal environmental side effects, and self-automotive operation process. However, due to the complexity of Non-Darcian flow interactions with stability and uncertainties of dam, the reliable design is a challenging topic. This study aimed to examine the effects of uncertainties in probabilistic design of these dams. We proposed a reliable design framework for detention rockfill dams with a focus on the importance of stability analysis. The effects of design uncertainty sources on the stability of dam, safety factors of overturning, sliding and bearing, along with the hydraulic performance of the dam were examined. The results of the model revealed that the uncertainties in input parameters can effectively regenerate uncertainties in the hydraulic performance ranges from - 53.54 to + 110.11%. The safety factor against the sliding (SFS) has maximum dependencies with the uncertainties ranging - 32.63 to + 87.81%. The Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) and fitting probability distribution functions to the safety factor histograms, and uncertainty quantifications results in 88.3%in increasing the safety factors as a reliable methodology for stability design of detention rockfill dams. Thus, the study calls for reliable, certain, and safe design of flood protection rockfill ponds. The ecological evaluation and applying more advanced uncertainty assessment methods remains a future research direction of the current study. The developed framework can be used to acquire future detention rockfill dam design/modeling requirements for reliability-based design optimization as a simulation-optimization model coupled whit MCS.

Coupling machine learning with signal process techniques and particle swarm optimization for forecasting flood routing calculations in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye

With the effect of global warming, the frequency of floods, one of the most important natural disasters, increases, and this increases the damage it causes to people and the environment. Flood routing models play an important role in predicting floods so that all necessary precautions are taken before floods reach the region, loss of life and property in the region is prevented, and agricultural lands are protected. This research aims to compare the performance of hybrid machine learning models such as least-squares support vector machine technique hybridized with particle swarm optimization, empirical mode decomposition, variational mode decomposition, and discrete wavelet transform processes for flood routing estimation models in Ordu, Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye. In addition, it is aimed to examine the effect of data division in flood forecasting. Accordingly, 70%, 80%, and 90% of the data were used for training, respectively. For this purpose, the flood data of 2009 and 2013 in Ordu were used. The performance of the established models was evaluated with the help of statistical indicators such as mean bias error, mean absolute percentage error, determination coefficient, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Taylor Diagrams, and boxplot. As a result of the study, the particle swarm optimization least-squares support vector machine technique was chosen as the most successful model in predicting flood routing results. In addition, the optimum data partition ratio was found to be Train:70:Test:30 in the flood routing calculation. The findings are essential regarding flood management and taking necessary precautions before the flood occurs.

Climate change and infectious disease: A prologue on multidisciplinary cooperation and predictive analytics

Climate change impacts global ecosystems at the interface of infectious disease agents and hosts and vectors for animals, humans, and plants. The climate is changing, and the impacts are complex, with multifaceted effects. In addition to connecting climate change and infectious diseases, we aim to draw attention to the challenges of working across multiple disciplines. Doing this requires concentrated efforts in a variety of areas to advance the technological state of the art and at the same time implement ideas and explain to the everyday citizen what is happening. The world's experience with COVID-19 has revealed many gaps in our past approaches to anticipating emerging infectious diseases. Most approaches to predicting outbreaks and identifying emerging microbes of major consequence have been with those causing high morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. These lagging indicators offer limited ability to prevent disease spillover and amplifications in new hosts. Leading indicators and novel approaches are more valuable and now feasible, with multidisciplinary approaches also within our grasp to provide links to disease predictions through holistic monitoring of micro and macro ecological changes. In this commentary, we describe niches for climate change and infectious diseases as well as overarching themes for the important role of collaborative team science, predictive analytics, and biosecurity. With a multidisciplinary cooperative "all call," we can enhance our ability to engage and resolve current and emerging problems.

Deep learning model for predicting tunnel damages and track serviceability under seismic environment

Jammu and Kashmir in the northwestern part of the Himalayan region is frequently triggered with moderate to large magnitude earthquakes due to an active tectonic regime. In this study, a mathematical formulation-based Seismic Tunnel Damage Prediction (STDP) model is proposed using the deep learning (DL) approach. The pertinency of the DL model is validated using tunnel damage data from historical earthquakes such as the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake, and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA), source to site distance (SSD), overburden depth (OD), lining thickness (t), tunnel diameter (Ф), and geological strength index (GSI) were employed as inputs to train the Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) for damage state prediction. The performance evaluation results provided a clear indication for further use in a variety of risk assessment domains. When compared to models based on historical data, the proposed STDP model produces consistent results, demonstrating the robustness of the methodology used in this work. All models perform well during validation based on fitness metrics. The "STD multiple graphs" is also proposed which provide information on damage indexing, damage pattern, and crack predictive specifications. This can be used as a ready toolbox to check the vulnerability in post-seismic scenarios. The seismic design guidelines for tunnelling projects are also proposed, which discuss the damage pattern and suggest mitigation measures. The proposed STDP model, STD multiple graphs, and seismic design guidance are applicable to any earthquake-prone tunnelling project anywhere in the world.

Hourly Water Level Forecasting in an Hydroelectric Basin Using Spatial Interpolation and Artificial Intelligence

In this work, a new hydroelectric basin modelling approach is described and applied to the Pontecosi basin, Italy. Several types of data sources were used to learn the model: a number of weather stations, satellite observations, the reanalysis dataset, and basin data. With the goal of predicting the water level of the basin, the model was composed by three cascade modules. Firstly, different spatial interpolation methods, such as Kriging, Radial Basis Function, and Natural Neighbours, were compared and applied to interpolate the weather stations data nearby the basin area to infer the main environmental variables (air temperature, air humidity, precipitation, and wind speed) in the basin area. Then, using these variables as inputs, a neural network was trained to predict the mean soil moisture concentration over the area, also to improve the low availability due to satellite orbits. Finally, a non-linear auto regressive exogenous input (NARX) model was trained to simulate the basin level with different prediction horizons, using the data from the previous modules and past basin data (water level, discharge flow rate, and turbine flow rate). Accurate predictions of the basin water level were achieved within 1 to 6 h ahead, with mean absolute errors (MAE) between 2 cm and 10 cm, respectively.

Identifying sensitivity of factor cluster based gully erosion susceptibility models

The present study has attempted to address the issue of sensitivity of different clusters of factors towards gully erosion in the Mayurakshi river basin. Firstly, the gully erosion susceptibility of the basin area has been mapped by integrating using 18 parameters divided into four factor-cluster, viz. erodibility, erosivity, resistance, and topographical cluster, with the help of four machine learning (ML) models such as random forest (RF), gradient boost (GBM), extreme gradient boost (XGB), and support vector machine (SVM). Results show that almost 20% and 25% of the upper catchment of the basin belongs to extreme and high gully erosion susceptibility. Among the applied algorithms, RF is appeared as the best performing model. The spatial association of factor cluster-based models with the final susceptibility model is found the highest for the erosivity cluster, followed by the erodibility cluster. From the sensitivity analysis, it becomes clear that geology and soil texture are dominant contributing factors to gully erosion susceptibility. The geological formation of unclassified granite gneiss and geomorphological formation of denudational origin pediment-pediplain complex is dominant over the entire upper catchment of the basin, and therefore, can be considered regional factors of importance. Since the study has figured out the different grades of susceptible areas with dominant factors and factor cluster, it would be useful for devising planning for gully erosion check measures. From economic particularly food security purpose, it is very essential since it is concerned with precious soil loss and negative effects on agriculture.

Spatial Prediction of Current and Future Flood Susceptibility: Examining the Implications of Changing Climates on Flood Susceptibility Using Machine Learning Models

The main aim of this study was to predict current and future flood susceptibility under three climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 (i.e., optimistic), RCP4.5 (i.e., business as usual), and RCP8.5 (i.e., pessimistic) employing four machine learning models, including Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN), and Naïve Bayes (NB). The study was conducted for two watersheds in Canada, namely Lower Nicola River, BC and Loup, QC. Three statistical metrics were used to validate the models: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, Figure of Merit, and F1-score. Findings indicated that the RF model had the highest accuracy in providing the flood susceptibility maps (FSMs). Moreover, the provided FSMs indicated that flooding is more likely to occur in the Lower Nicola River watershed than the Loup watershed. Following the RCP4.5 scenario, the area percentages of the flood susceptibility classes in the Loup watershed in 2050 and 2080 have changed by the following percentages from the year 2020 and 2050, respectively: Very Low = -1.68%, Low = -5.82%, Moderate = +6.19%, High = +0.71%, and Very High = +0.6% and Very Low = -1.61%, Low = +2.98%, Moderate = -3.49%, High = +1.29%, and Very High = +0.83%. Likewise, in the Lower Nicola River watershed, the changes between the years 2020 and 2050 and between the years 2050 and 2080 were: Very Low = -0.38%, Low = -0.81%, Moderate = -0.95%, High = +1.72%, and Very High = +0.42% and Very Low = -1.31%, Low = -1.35%, Moderate = -1.81%, High = +2.37%, and Very High = +2.1%, respectively. The impact of climate changes on future flood-prone places revealed that the regions designated as highly and very highly susceptible to flooding, grow in the forecasts for both watersheds. The main contribution of this study lies in the novel insights it provides concerning the flood susceptibility of watersheds in British Columbia and Quebec over time and under various climate change scenarios.

Developing and validating a multivariable prediction model for predicting the cost of colon surgery

Hospitals are burdened with predicting, calculating, and managing various cost-affecting parameters regarding patients and their treatments. Accuracy in cost prediction is further affected when a patient suffers from other health issues that hinder the traditional prognosis. This can lead to an unavoidable deficit in the final revenue of medical centers. This study aims to determine whether machine learning (ML) algorithms can predict cost factors based on patients undergoing colon surgery. For the forecasting, multiple predictors will be taken into the model to provide a tool that can be helpful for hospitals to manage their costs, ultimately leading to operating more cost-efficiently. This proof of principle will lay the groundwork for an efficient ML-based prediction tool based on multicenter data from a range of international centers in the subsequent phases of the study. With a mean absolute percentage error result of 18%–25.6%, our model's prediction showed decent results in forecasting the costs regarding various diagnosed factors and surgical approaches. There is an urgent need for further studies on predicting cost factors, especially for cases with anastomotic leakage, to minimize unnecessary hospital costs.

Unraveling the complexities of urban fluvial flood hydraulics through AI

As urbanization increases across the globe, urban flooding is an ever-pressing concern. Urban fluvial systems are highly complex, depending on a myriad of interacting variables. Numerous hydraulic models are available for analyzing urban flooding; however, meeting the demand of high spatial extension and finer discretization and solving the physics-based numerical equations are computationally expensive. Computational efforts increase drastically with an increase in model dimension and resolution, preventing current solutions from fully realizing the data revolution. In this research, we demonstrate the effectiveness of artificial intelligence (AI), in particular, machine learning (ML) methods including the emerging deep learning (DL) to quantify urban flooding considering the lower part of Darby Creek, PA, USA. Training datasets comprise multiple geographic and urban hydraulic features (e.g., coordinates, elevation, water depth, flooded locations, discharge, average slope, and the impervious area within the contributing region, downstream distance from stormwater outfalls and dams). ML Classifiers such as logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN) are used to identify the flooded locations. A Deep neural network (DNN)-based regression model is used to quantify the water depth. The values of the evaluation matrices indicate satisfactory performance both for the classifiers and DNN model (F-1 scores- 0.975, 0.991, 0.892, and 0.855 for binary classifiers; root mean squared error- 0.027 for DNN regression). In addition, the blocked K-folds Cross Validation (CV) of ML classifiers in detecting flooded locations showed satisfactory performance with the average accuracy of 0.899, which validates the models to generalize to the unseen area. This approach is a significant step towards resolving the complexities of urban fluvial flooding with a large multi-dimensional dataset in a highly computationally efficient manner.

Perspective on uncertainty quantification and reduction in compound flood modeling and forecasting

This perspective discusses the importance of characterizing, quantifying, and accounting for various sources of uncertainties involved in different layers of hydrometeorological and hydrodynamic model simulations as well as their complex interactions and cascading effects (e.g., uncertainty propagation) in forecasting compound flooding (CF). Over the past few decades, CF has come to attention across the globe as this natural hazard results from a combination of either concurrent or successive flood drivers with larger economic, societal, and environmental impacts than those from isolated drivers. A warming climate and increased urbanization in flood-prone areas are expected to contribute to an escalation in the risk of CF in the near future. Recent advances in remote sensing and data science can provide a wide range of possibilities to account for and reduce the predictive uncertainties; hence improving the predictability of CF events, enabling risk-informed decision-making, and ensuring a sustainable CF risk governance.

A canary, a coal mine, and imperfect data: determining the efficacy of open-source climate change models in detecting and predicting extreme weather events in Northern and Western Kenya

Climate models, by accurately forecasting future weather events, can be a critical tool in developing countermeasures to reduce crop loss and decrease adverse effects on animal husbandry and fishing. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of various regional versions of the climate models, RCMs, and the commonly available weather datasets in Kenya in predicting extreme weather patterns in northern and western Kenya. We identified two models that may be used to predict flood risks and potential drought events in these regions. The combination of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weather station data was the most effective in predicting future drought occurrences in Turkana and Wajir with accuracies ranging from 78 to 90%. In the case of flood forecasting, isolation forests models using weather station data had the best overall performance. The above models and datasets may form the basis of an early warning system for use in Kenya's agricultural sector.

Gaussian process emulation of spatio-temporal outputs of a 2D inland flood model

The computational limitations of complex numerical models have led to adoption of statistical emulators across a variety of problems in science and engineering disciplines to circumvent the high computational costs associated with numerical simulations. In flood modelling, many hydraulic and hydrodynamic numerical models, especially when operating at high spatiotemporal resolutions, have prohibitively high computational costs for tasks requiring the instantaneous generation of very large numbers of simulation results. This study examines the appropriateness and robustness of Gaussian Process (GP) models to emulate the results from a hydraulic inundation model. The developed GPs produce real-time predictions based on the simulation output from LISFLOOD-FP numerical model. An efficient dimensionality reduction scheme is developed to tackle the high dimensionality of the output space and is combined with the GPs to investigate the predictive performance of the proposed emulator for estimation of the inundation depth. The developed GP-based framework is capable of robust and straightforward quantification of the uncertainty associated with the predictions, without requiring additional model evaluations and simulations. Further, this study explores the computational advantages of using a GP-based emulator over alternative methodologies such as neural networks, by undertaking a comparative analysis. For the case study data presented in this paper, the GP model was found to accurately reproduce water depths and inundation extent by classification and produce computational speedups of approximately 10,000 times compared with the original simulator, and 80 times for a neural network-based emulator.

mRisk: Continuous Risk Estimation for Smoking Lapse from Noisy Sensor Data with Incomplete and Positive-Only Labels

Passive detection of risk factors (that may influence unhealthy or adverse behaviors) via wearable and mobile sensors has created new opportunities to improve the effectiveness of behavioral interventions. A key goal is to find opportune moments for intervention by passively detecting rising risk of an imminent adverse behavior. But, it has been difficult due to substantial noise in the data collected by sensors in the natural environment and a lack of reliable label assignment of low- and high-risk states to the continuous stream of sensor data. In this paper, we propose an event-based encoding of sensor data to reduce the effect of noises and then present an approach to efficiently model the historical influence of recent and past sensor-derived contexts on the likelihood of an adverse behavior. Next, to circumvent the lack of any confirmed negative labels (i.e., time periods with no high-risk moment), and only a few positive labels (i.e., detected adverse behavior), we propose a new loss function. We use 1,012 days of sensor and self-report data collected from 92 participants in a smoking cessation field study to train deep learning models to produce a continuous risk estimate for the likelihood of an impending smoking lapse. The risk dynamics produced by the model show that risk peaks an average of 44 minutes before a lapse. Simulations on field study data show that using our model can create intervention opportunities for 85% of lapses with 5.5 interventions per day.

A CAST-Based Analysis of the Metro Accident That Was Triggered by the Zhengzhou Heavy Rainstorm Disaster

Emergency management research is used to deal with the increasing number of extreme weather threats in urban areas. This paper uses causal analysis based on systems theory (CAST) to review the subway water ingress accident and the government's emergency management actions in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, during the heavy rainstorm disaster on 20 July 2021. The aims of this article are to establish safety control structures at both the enterprise level and the government level, and to systematically analyze the problems in emergency management in Zhengzhou City. Our analysis found that the construction of disaster prevention facilities restricted emergency management. Therefore, we suggest that enterprises and governments not only pay attention to emergency management, but also to the construction of disaster prevention facilities. This article also points out that the system of chief executive responsibility that is implemented in China is becoming a double-edged sword in emergency management. Our study makes recommendations for enhancing the capacities of emergency management, points out the shortcomings of the existing emergency management structure, and provides knowledge gained for future emergency management research.