Climate–Glacier Dynamics and Topographic Forcing in the Karakoram Himalaya: Concepts, Issues and Research Directions

Modeling Surface Processes on Debris-Covered Glaciers: A Review with Reference to the High Mountain Asia

Surface processes on debris-covered glaciers are governed by a variety of controlling factors including climate, debris load, water bodies, and topography. Currently, we have not achieved a general consensus on the role of supraglacial processes in regulating climate–glacier sensitivity in High Mountain Asia, which is mainly due to a lack of an integrated understanding of glacier surface dynamics as a function of debris properties, mass movement, and ponding. Therefore, further investigations on supraglacial processes is needed in order to provide more accurate assessments of the hydrological cycle, water resources, and natural hazards in the region. Given the scarcity of long-term in situ data and the difficulty of conducting fieldwork on these glaciers, many numerical models have been developed by recent studies. This review summarizes our current knowledge of surface processes on debris-covered glaciers with an emphasis on the related modeling efforts. We present an integrated view on how numerical modeling provide insights into glacier surface ablation, supraglacial debris transport, morphological variation, pond dynamics, and ice-cliff evolution. We also highlight the remote sensing approaches that facilitate modeling, and discuss the limitations of existing models regarding their capabilities to address coupled processes on debris-covered glaciers and suggest research directions.

Understanding the Hydropower and Potential Climate Change Impact on the Himalayan River Regimes—A Study of Local Perceptions and Responses from Himachal Pradesh, India

The Himalayas have become synonymous with the hydropower developments for larger electricity demands of India’s energy sector. In the Himachal Himalayas though, there are only three large storage dams with more than 1000 megawatts (hereafter MW) capacity that have very serious environmental issues. However, hundreds of small runoff-river hydropower plants across the Himachal Himalayas are a serious threat to the river regimes and Himalayan biota. There are 965 identified hydropower projects (hereafter HPPs) having a potential capacity of 27,436 MW in the Himachal Pradesh as of December 2019 as per the Directorate of Energy of the state. Out of the 965 identified, 216 are commissioned, including less than 5 MW plants, with an installed capacity of 10,596 MW, and were operational by December 2019. Only 58 projects are under construction among the identified with an installed capacity of 2351 MW, 640 projects are in various stages of clearance and investigation with an installed capacity 9260 MW, 30 projects are to be allotted with 1304 MW installed capacity, and merely four projects are disputed/cancelled with installed capacity of 50.50 MW. The large number of HPPs are sanctioned without proper consideration of negative environmental and geohazard impacts on the Himalayan terrestrial biota. In this work, our focus was on the hydropower and climate change impact on the Himalayan river regimes of the Chenab, the Ravi, the Beas, the Satluj, and the Yamuna river basins. We analyzed basin-wise rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture data from 1955 to 2019 to see the trend by applying the Mann–Kendall test, the linear regression model, and Sen’s slope test. A basin-wise hazard zonation map has been drawn to assess the disaster vulnerability, and 12 hydropower sites have been covered through the primary survey for first-hand information of local perceptions and responses owing to hydropower plants.

Long-term mass balance modelling (1986-2018) and climate sensitivity of Siachen Glacier, East Karakoram

Located in the eastern lap of the Karakoram Range, the Siachen Glacier is the second longest glacier in the non-polar areas of the world. High altitude, extreme climate and frequent military conflicts on this glacier create antagonistic surroundings for conventional field studies. Although recent advancements in geodetic technique have helped in the estimation of Siachen mass budget (MB), these geodetic estimates have been observed only for short time periods ranging 6 to 10 years. Hence, current study presents a comprehensive assessment of the Siachen long-term MB (32 years) based on temperature index (TI) model. Annual surface MB variability was modelled between 1986 and 2018 by forcing daily air temperature and precipitation from multiple ground stations distributed well across accumulation/ablation zone of the glacier. Mean annual temperature lapse rate (LR) was found midway between dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic LRs. Precipitation gradient (PG) was observed remarkably different below and above 4800 m.a.s.l. glacier altitude. Furthermore, snowmelt factor (SMF) was also estimated using snow thickness and positive degree days (PDDs) information over the glacier surface. Model results showed a nearly balanced condition (- 0.02 ± 0.05 m.w.e./year) during 1986-2006 followed by an accelerated rate of mass loss during 2007-2018 (- 0.11 ± 0.05 m.w.e./year), thus making the overall condition of Siachen MB negative during the period 1986-2018 (- 0.05 ± 0.05 m.w.e./year). Comparison of modelled MB was made with few geodetic studies conducted for the Siachen Glacier at different time scales (mainly after year 2000). Further, the sensitivity of the modelled glacier-wide MB was - 0.24 m.w.e./year for a temperature rise by 1 °C, while the sensitivity towards 10% increase in precipitation was estimated to be + 0.16 m.w.e./year. A relationship of the annual MB with accumulation area ratio (AAR) and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) was also established for Siachen glacier.

Glacier Dynamics in Changme Khangpu Basin, Sikkim Himalaya, India, between 1975 and 2016

This study provides a high resolution glacier database in the Changme Khangpu Basin (CKB) using LANDSAT 8 (2014) and Sentinel-2A image (2016), mapping of 81 glaciers that cover a 75.78 ± 1.54 km2 area. Composite maps of land surface temperature, slope and Normalized differential Snow Index have been successfully utilized in delineating near accurate debris cover boundary of glaciers. The cumulative controlling parameters of aspect, elevation, slope, and debris cover have been assessed to evaluate the nature of glacier distribution and dynamics. The local topographic settings seem to have significantly determined the glacier distribution in the CKB. Almost 20% area erstwhile under glacier cover has been lost since 1975 at an average rate of −0.453 ± 0.001 km2a−1. The recent decade (2001–2016) has witnessed a higher rate of area shrinkage (−0.665 ± 0.243 km2a−1), compared to a relatively lower rate of recession (−0.170 ± 0.536 km2a−1) between 1988 and 2001. The lower rates of glacial recession can most likely be induced regionally due to relatively cooler decadal late summer temperatures and peak in the monsoon spell. Glaciers with western and north-western aspects showed more vulnerability to area loss than the rest of the aspects. Lower altitude glaciers have receded faster than ones perched up on higher elevations. The rate of glacier area recession has been nearly twice that on clean glaciers as compared to debris-covered glaciers in the CKB.

Impacts of Climate and Supraglacial Lakes on the Surface Velocity of Baltoro Glacier from 1992 to 2017

The Baltoro Glacier is one of the largest glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range. Long-term monitoring of glacier dynamics provides key information on glacier evolution in a changing climate, which is essential for regional water resource and natural hazard management. On large glaciers, detailed field based mass balance is not feasible. Ice dynamic variations quantify changes in mass transport and possibly the influence of environmental parameters on the evolution of the glacier. Although velocity variations of Baltoro Glacier during winter and summer are linked to seasonally enhanced basal sliding, little is known about differences in timing and magnitude of (intra-)seasonal velocity variations and their determining mechanisms. We present time series of annual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal glacier surface velocities by means of intensity offset tracking applied on multi-mission Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for a period of 25 years from 1992 to 2017. Supraglacial lakes forming on the downstream glacier surface in summer were mapped from 1991 to 2017 based on the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), calculated from multi-spectral Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) imagery. Additionally, precipitation data of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and temperature data of ERA-Interim were used to derive the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) from 1998 to 2017. Linking surface velocities to the SPI confirmed a strong correlation between heavy precipitation events in winter and the magnitude and the timing of glacier acceleration in summer. Downstream extensions of summer acceleration that have been found since 2015 may be explained by additional water draining from an increased number of supraglacial lakes through crevasses that have been formed in consequence of higher initial velocities, evoked by strong winter precipitation. The warmer melt seasons observed in the years 2015 to 2017 additionally affects the formation of a supraglacial lake, so stronger summer acceleration events in recent years may be indirectly related to global warming.

Surge-type and surge-modified glaciers in the Karakoram

Glaciers in the Karakoram exhibit irregular behavior. Terminus fluctuations of individual glaciers lack consistency and, unlike other parts of the Himalaya, total ice mass remained stable or slightly increased since the 1970s. These seeming anomalies are addressed through a comprehensive mapping of surge-type glaciers and surge-related impacts, based on satellite images (Landsat and ASTER), ground observations, and archival material since the 1840s. Some 221 surge-type and surge-like glaciers are identified in six main classes. Their basins cover 7,734 ± 271 km² or ~43% of the total Karakoram glacierised area. Active phases range from some months to over 15 years. Surge intervals are identified for 27 glaciers with two or more surges, including 9 not previously reported. Mini-surges and kinematic waves are documented and surface diagnostic features indicative of surging. Surge cycle timing, intervals and mass transfers are unique to each glacier and largely out-of-phase with climate. A broad class of surge-modified ice introduces indirect and post-surge effects that further complicate tracking of climate responses. Mass balance in surge-type and surge-modified glaciers differs from conventional, climate-sensitive profiles. New approaches are required to account for such differing responses of individual glaciers, and effectively project the fate of Karakoram ice during a warming climate.