Absence of a Seasonal Variation of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Yeoncheon Compared to Nationwide Korea

Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in China using R-INLA

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a category B infectious disease caused by Hantavirus infection, which can cause acute kidney injury and has a high mortality rate. At present, China is the country most severely afflicted by HFRS in the world, and it is critical to carry out efficient HFRS prevention and management in a scientific and accurate manner. The study used data on the incidence of HFRS in mainland China from 2015 to 2018, built a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal distribution model, and applied the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation algorithm to analyse the factors influencing the development of HFRS, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, and the threshold exceedance locations. The results revealed that the woodland and grassland area (RR = 1.357, 95% CI: 1.005-1.791), economic level (RR = 1.299, 95% CI: 1.007-1.649), and traffic level (RR = 2.442, 95% CI: 1.825-3.199) were all significantly and positively associated with the development of HFRS, with traffic level having the strongest promoting effect. The seasonal cycle was obvious in time, with peaks in May-June and October-December each year, most notably in November. Spatially, there was a south-heavy north-light trend, with a high risk of incidence largely in places rich in mountain and forest vegetation, of which Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Jiangxi provinces continuing to have a high incidence in recent years, and the evolution of the epidemic in Hubei and Hunan was becoming more serious. When the early warning threshold was set at 0.2, the detection impact was best, and Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hainan, and Tianjin were positioned near the critical point of the exceedance threshold with the highest risk of incidence. It is recommended that the relevant managers call for active vaccination of outdoor workers, such as those working in agriculture and construction sites, implement rat prevention and extermination before winter arrives, and warn high-risk and medium-high-risk areas to conduct early outbreak surveillance. Move the prevention and control gates forward based on the exceedance threshold for doing preventive and control detection and epidemic research and judgement work.

Emerging hantavirus infection in wild rodents captured in suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by hantaviruses is a frequently reported acute hemorrhagic fever in South Korea. These viruses are transmitted by various rodent species such as Apodemus agrarius.

Methodology/Principal findings

To investigate hantavirus infection and seroprevalence in rodents, wild rodents were captured from two districts in the suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City from January 2016 to December 2018. Nested reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) targeting the hantavirus-specific L segment and indirect immunofluorescence antibody (IFA) assay using Hantaan virus antigen slides were performed. A total of 585 wild rodents were captured—512 A. agrarius, 49 Crocidura lasiura, and 24 Myodes regulus. Nested RT-PCR was performed to examine the rate of hantavirus infection in wild rodents, and 1.88% (11/585) of all rodents, 1.17% (6/512) of A. agrarius, 6.12% (3/49) of C. lasiura, and 8.33% (2/24) of M. regulus tested positive. The nucleotide sequence analysis of the eleven PCR-positive products revealed that six PCR products showed over 85% sequence similarity with the Jeju virus, four showed over 99.7% similarity with the Hantaan virus, and one showed over 95.3% homology with the Imjin virus. Moreover, IgG antibodies against the Hantaan virus were detected in 6.15% (36/585) of all rodents, 6.8% (35/512) of A. agrarius, and 4.17% (1/24) of M. regulus. IgG antibodies were not detected in C. lasiura.

Conclusions/Significance

Hantaviruses were detected in all three wild rodent species of A. agrarius, C. lasiura, and M. regulus captured in the suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea, and it was demonstrated that they were various strains of hantaviruses such as the Hantaan, Jeju, and Imjin viruses.

Hantaviruses (family Hantaviridae, genus Hantavirus) are rodent viruses that can cause two fatal human diseases—hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. These viruses are transmitted by various rodent species such as Apodemus agrarius. In the present study, wild rodents captured in the suburbs of Gwangju Metropolitan City were analyzed by nested reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction targeting the hantavirus-specific L segment and indirect immunofluorescence antibody assay using Hantaan virus antigen slides. A total of 585 wild rodents were captured and 1.88% (11/585) of all rodents, 1.17% (6/512) of A. agrarius, 6.12% (3/49) of Crocidura lasiura, and 8.33% (2/24) of Myodes regulus were PCR-positive. Of the eleven PCR-positive wild rodents, six PCR products showed over 85% sequence similarity with the Jeju virus, four showed over 99.7% similarity with the Hantaan virus, and one showed over 95.3% homology with the Imjin virus. Moreover, IgG antibodies against the Hantaan virus were detected in 6.15% (36/585) of all rodents, 6.8% (35/512) of A. agrarius, and 4.17% (1/24) of M. regulus. IgG antibodies were not detected in C. lasiura. When we examined the detection rate of hantavirus genes in different seasons, hantaviruses were most commonly detected in fall (seven cases [5.69%]) and winter (four cases [2.76%]). No hantaviruses were detected in spring or summer. However, the seasonal prevalence of IgG antibodies was higher in spring and summer (12 [7.32%] and 11 [7.10%] cases, respectively) than in fall and winter (seven [5.69%] and six [4.14%] cases, respectively). This study was performed on a monthly basis throughout a three-year period, and thus, it provides reliable data that may provide insight into preventive measures against HFRS. Our results suggest that various types of hantaviruses, including Hantaan, Jeju, and Imjin viruses, are distributed throughout Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea. Data regarding the rate of Hantaan virus infection in rodents in Gwangju and knowledge of the hantavirus seroprevalence, species, and genotypes circulating in these domestic rodent species will provide useful information for developing vaccines and diagnostic testing using sequence data. These will help increase preparedness for the emergence of new species.

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome: Literature Review, Epidemiology, Clinical Picture and Pathogenesis

Hantaviruses can cause two types of infections in humans: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The old world hantaviruses, primarily Hantaan virus (HTNV), responsible for causing HFRS occurs endemically in Asia and Europe. Apodernus agraricus, a striped field mouse, is being considered as main host reservoir for HTNV. Infection in humans is typically accidental and occurs when virus-containing rodent excretions such as urine, feces, or saliva are aerosolized. The major clinical manifestations includes increased vascular permeability causing vascular leakage, acute kidney injury and coagulation abnormalities. The case fatality rate of HFRS varies around 5.0 - 10.0% depending on the causative viral agent. The direct effects of viral infection on endothelial cells, as well as the immunological response to the viral infection, have been suggested to play a key role in the pathogenesis of HFRS. This article summarizes the current knowledge of HFRS epidemiology in Korea and around the globe, etiology, host transmission, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, diagnostic techniques, treatment, and prevention.

Comparison of autoregressive integrated moving average model and generalised regression neural network model for prediction of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China: a time-series study

OBJECTIVES

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a serious threat to public health in China, accounting for almost 90% cases reported globally. Infectious disease prediction may help in disease prevention despite some uncontrollable influence factors. This study conducted a comparison between a hybrid model and two single models in forecasting the monthly incidence of HFRS in China.

DESIGN

Time-series study.

SETTING

The People's Republic of China.

METHODS

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) model and hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model were constructed by R V.3.4.3 software. The monthly reported incidence of HFRS from January 2011 to May 2018 were adopted to evaluate models' performance. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were adopted to evaluate these models' effectiveness. Spatial stratified heterogeneity of the time series was tested by month and another GRNN model was built with a new series.

RESULTS

The monthly incidence of HFRS in the past several years showed a slight downtrend and obvious seasonal variation. A total of four plausible ARIMA models were built and ARIMA(2,1,1) (2,1,1)12 model was selected as the optimal model in HFRS fitting. The smooth factors of the basic GRNN model and the hybrid model were 0.027 and 0.043, respectively. The single ARIMA model was the best in fitting part (MAPE=9.1154, MAE=89.0302, RMSE=138.8356) while the hybrid model was the best in prediction (MAPE=17.8335, MAE=152.3013, RMSE=196.4682). GRNN model was revised by building model with new series and the forecasting performance of revised model (MAPE=17.6095, MAE=163.8000, RMSE=169.4751) was better than original GRNN model (MAPE=19.2029, MAE=177.0356, RMSE=202.1684).

CONCLUSIONS

The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model was better than single ARIMA and basic GRNN model in forecasting monthly incidence of HFRS in China. It could be considered as a decision-making tool in HFRS prevention and control.

Facing of Family Doctor with Hantavirus Infection

BACKGROUND

Hantavirus infection is manifested as an urgent, severe and life-threatening disease caused by Hantavirus. The virus affects human endothelial cells. The natural reservoir of the Hantaviruses is chronically infected rodents. Human infection is accidental. Occurs by intake of contaminated food or inhalation of contaminated secretion from infected rodents' excretions have an increased risk of contamination. The most affected persons are people who work in nature. The virus causes haemorrhages, fever and acute renal failure. The disease appears more frequently in endemic regions with the lethality of 6-15%. The disease can surprise doctors with severity, urgency and undefined clinical picture. Fast clinical evaluation, proper and urgent diagnosis and treatment can improve the safe life of these patients.

CASE REPORT

We report a case of 45 -year-old male patient worked as a shepherd on mountain Babuna near the city of Veles in the Republic of Macedonia at the end of the summer in the year 2017, presented with prolonged hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The clinical presentation and lab findings support the diagnosis of Hantavirus infection with acute renal failure.

CONCLUSION

It is necessary to raise the awareness of the family doctors for the hantavirus disease, especially in countries with sporadic cases, as in our country. It needs for prompt and timely diagnosis, timely hospitalisation and initiation of therapy.

Epidemiologic study on changes in occurrence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Republic of Korea for 17 years according to age group: 2001-2017

Background

The potential effect of the inactivated hantavirus vaccine (IHV) remains controversial; however, it appears to be moderately effective for patients at high risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). This study of the epidemiology of HFRS from 2001 to 2017 aimed to examine those at high risk of HFRS in the Republic of Korea (ROK), particularly in terms of disease distribution according to age.

Methods

Raw data of HFRS patients recorded in Korea from 2001 to 2017 were obtained from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Patients were divided into three age groups: ≤39, 40–69, and ≥ 70 years. The incidence rate per 100,000 individuals in each age group was calculated using population data. The 12-month year was divided into three-month quarters, and the number and proportion of patients corresponding to each quarter were calculated. The effects of time, sex, and quarter on HFRS incidence were assessed in a Poisson regression analysis.

Results

From 2001 to 2017, 7048 HFRS patients were recorded nationwide. Among these patients, the proportion of patients aged ≥70 years increased gradually from 16.4% in 2001 to 43.9% in 2017. Regarding the quarter-year periods, the fourth quarter contained a significantly higher proportion of patients in the ≥70 years group (69.4%) compared to the other age groups. In the Poisson regression analysis, patients aged ≥70 years had a significantly higher relative risk of HFRS incidence within each quartile compared to those in the other age groups (2.102- and 10.029-fold in the third and fourth quarters, respectively). An analysis of disease incidence revealed a more distinct pattern in seasonal variation among those aged ≥70 years compared with other age groups.

Conclusions

In this study of the incidence of HFRS in the ROK, subjects aged ≥70 years exhibited a gradual increase in incidence and a distinct pattern of seasonal variation. These results may be important to identify individuals in Korea who are at high risk of developing HFRS. In future, active immunization programs will be needed to control HFRS among these high-risk groups in Korea.