Tuberculosis in quebec: a review of trends

Epidemiologic Characteristics of Domestic Patients with Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Taiwan: A 19-Year Retrospective Study

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an illness caused by hantaviruses. Numerous factors modify the risk of hantavirus transmission. This study explored the epidemiological characteristics, differences, and trends in terms of gender, age, season, and living areas of those diagnosed with domestically acquired HFRS in Taiwan from 2001 to 2019. Methods: We examined publicly available annual summary data on the domestic cases with HFRS from 2001 to 2019; these data were obtained from the web database of Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Results: This study analyzed 21 domestic cases with HFRS from Taiwan’s CDC databases. In this study of the cases of HFRS in Taiwan, a gradual increase in the cases of those aged ≥40 years acquiring the disease was noted, and a distinct pattern of seasonal variation (spring) was observed. Furthermore, more men had domestically acquired HFRS, and living in Taipei metropolitan area (6 cases [28.6%]) and the rural areas (Gao-Ping region, 9 cases [42.9%]) was identified as a potential risk factor. This study represents the first report of confirmed cases of domestically acquired HFRS from surveillance data from Taiwan’s CDC, 2001–2019. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of longitudinal studies covering a wide geographical area, particularly for highly fluctuating pathogens, to understanding the implications of the transmission of zoonotic diseases in human populations. Important data were identified to inform future surveillance and research efforts in Taiwan.

Forecast analysis of the incidence of tuberculosis in the province of Quebec

BACKGROUND

While the overall population prevalence of tuberculosis in Quebec has been declining for many years, tuberculosis is still disproportionately more prevalent among the immigrant and Inuit communities. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec over time in order to examine the possible impact of future preventative and treatment programs geared to reducing such disparities.

METHODS

A compartmental differential equation based on a Susceptible Exposed Latent Infectious Recovered (SELIR) model was simulated using the Euler method using Visual Basic for Applications in Excel. Demographic parameters were obtained from census data for the Province of Quebec and the model was fitted to past epidemiological data to extrapolate future values over the period 2015 to 2030.

RESULTS

The trend of declining tuberculosis rates will continue in the general population, falling by 42% by 2030. The incidence among immigrants will decrease but never vanish, and may increase in the future. Among the Inuit, the incidence is expected to increase, reaching a maximum and then stabilizing, although if re-infection is taken into account it may continue to increase. Tuberculosis among non-indigenous Canadian born persons will continue to decline, with the disease almost eradicated in that group in the mid 21st century.

CONCLUSIONS

While the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec is expected to decrease overall, certain populations will remain at risk.