Statistical transformation and the interpretation of inpatient glucose control data

How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

Aim

Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control.

Method

Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting.

Results

The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries.

Conclusion

Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement.

Statistical transformation and the interpretation of inpatient glucose control data from the intensive care unit

Glucose control can be problematic in critically ill patients. We evaluated the impact of statistical transformation on interpretation of intensive care unit inpatient glucose control data. Point-of-care blood glucose (POC-BG) data derived from patients in the intensive care unit for 2011 was obtained. Box-Cox transformation of POC-BG measurements was performed, and distribution of data was determined before and after transformation. Different data subsets were used to establish statistical upper and lower control limits. Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts constructed from April, October, and November data determined whether out-of-control events could be identified differently in transformed versus nontransformed data. A total of 8679 POC-BG values were analyzed. POC-BG distributions in nontransformed data were skewed but approached normality after transformation. EWMA control charts revealed differences in projected detection of out-of-control events. In April, an out-of-control process resulting in the lower control limit being exceeded was identified at sample 116 in nontransformed data but not in transformed data. October transformed data detected an out-of-control process exceeding the upper control limit at sample 27 that was not detected in nontransformed data. Nontransformed November results remained in control, but transformation identified an out-of-control event less than 10 samples into the observation period. Using statistical methods to assess population-based glucose control in the intensive care unit could alter conclusions about the effectiveness of care processes for managing hyperglycemia. Further study is required to determine whether transformed versus nontransformed data change clinical decisions about the interpretation of care or intervention results.