Tackling imported malaria: an elimination endgame

Epidemiological characteristics and molecular identification of Plasmodium species among cases of imported malaria in Kuwait during the COVID-19 pandemic

Cases of imported malaria are reported each year in several malaria non-endemic countries, including Kuwait. PCR testing is the ideal method for identification of the infecting Plasmodium spp. The present study documented the epidemiologic characteristics of molecularly confirmed cases of imported malaria in Kuwait during the first year of COVID-19 pandemic. During the period from February 2020 to February 2021, 100 travelers with suspected malaria who had come from malaria-endemic countries of Africa (n = 60) and Asia (n = 40) were examined. Malaria diagnosis was made by microscopy of blood-stained smears and confirmed by a multiplex real-time PCR assay. Samples with discordant species identification results were sequenced. A total of 27 cases (27%) [P. falciparum, 14; P. vivax, 11; P. ovale, 1; mixed P. falciparum and P. malariae, 1] were detected, of whom 12 came to Kuwait for the first time and 15 were returning after visiting their home countries. Most of the returning travelers (12 out of 15 cases, 80%) had not received malaria chemoprophylaxis. Most cases of falciparum malaria (13/15) were Africans while most of the vivax cases (9/11) were Asians. Malaria was more common among subjects entering Kuwait for the first time (OR = 4.025, CI 1.07,15.1) and illiterates (OR = 13.8, CI 1.8,101.4). In conclusion, imported malaria caused mainly by P. falciparum and P. vivax was an ongoing problem during the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel history and education level were significant predictors of malaria among suspected cases.

Malaria reporting timeliness analysis and factors associated with delayed notification, 2018-2022, Nepal

In order to monitor public health trends and identify disease outbreaks early, efficient and reliable notification and surveillance systems are essential. Nepal uses a 1-3-7 malaria surveillance approach. The Short Message System (SMS) -based system for timely notification has been established. However, knowledge gaps exist regarding the timeliness of notification, treatment initiation, and case-based investigations. Hence, this study identifies the timeliness of notification and factors associated with delayed notification. This study used a cross-sectional approach and used secondary malaria surveillance data from Nepal's national malaria elimination program for the period of 2018 to 2022. The study revealed that the majority (79.9%) of malaria cases were male, with a male-to-female ratio of 3.96:1. Occupation was found to be significantly associated with delayed notification. Repatriate workers had 0.60 times lower odds of experiencing delayed notification compared to the reference occupation. Similarly, individuals diagnosed in the Sudurpaschim and Lumbini provinces had significantly lower odds (0.48 and 0.38, respectively) of encountering delayed notification compared to the reference province. Furthermore, relying on a single laboratory tool for malaria diagnosis (either RDT or microscopy only) was significantly associated with delayed notification. Individuals diagnosed solely with RDT or microscopy had 2.04 and 1.79 times higher odds of experiencing delayed notification, respectively, compared to those diagnosed using both laboratory tools. This study provides insight into the timeliness of surveillance system approach by assessing delayed notification and the factors associated with it. No delays are identified in median notification, treatment time and in case investigation. Improvement in the timeliness of malaria reporting over the years was observed. Provinces with high burden of malaria and repatriate workers showed lower delayed notification and conversely, cases diagnosed with single laboratory tool showed delayed notification time.

Using a mobile nanopore sequencing lab for end-to-end genomic surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum: A feasibility study

Genomic epidemiology holds promise for malaria control and elimination efforts, for example by informing on Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity and prevalence of mutations conferring anti-malarial drug resistance. Limited sequencing infrastructure in many malaria-endemic areas prevents the rapid generation of genomic data. To address these issues, we developed and validated assays for P. falciparum nanopore sequencing in endemic sites using a mobile laboratory, targeting key antimalarial drug resistance markers and microhaplotypes. Using two multiplexed PCR reactions, we amplified six highly polymorphic microhaplotypes and ten drug resistance markers. We developed a bioinformatics workflow that allows genotyping of polyclonal malaria infections, including minority clones. We validated the panels on mock dried blood spot (DBS) and rapid diagnostic test (RDT) samples and archived DBS, demonstrating even, high read coverage across amplicons (range: 580x to 3,212x median coverage), high haplotype calling accuracy, and the ability to explore within-sample diversity of polyclonal infections. We field-tested the feasibility of rapid genotyping in Zanzibar in close collaboration with the local malaria elimination program using DBS and routinely collected RDTs as sample inputs. Our assay identified haplotypes known to confer resistance to known antimalarials in the dhfr, dhps and mdr1 genes, but no evidence of artemisinin partial resistance. Most infections (60%) were polyclonal, with high microhaplotype diversity (median HE = 0.94). In conclusion, our assays generated actionable data within a few days, and we identified current challenges for implementing nanopore sequencing in endemic countries to accelerate malaria control and elimination.

A cross-sectional study to ascertain malaria prevalence among asymptomatic travellers arriving on the Lihir Group of Islands, Papua New Guinea: implications for elimination efforts

BACKGROUND

The Lihir Islands of Papua New Guinea host a mining operation that has resulted in a mine-impacted zone (MIZ) with reduced malaria transmission and a substantial influx of mine employees, informal cross-country traders, returning locals, and visitors. Prevalence of malaria parasites was assessed in travellers arriving on the Lihir Group of Islands to evaluate the risk of parasite importation.

METHODS

In 2018, a cross-sectional study at the airport and main wharf was conducted, targeting asymptomatic travellers who had been away from Lihir for at least 12 days. Microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and quantitative PCR (qPCR) were used to determine Plasmodium parasite prevalence, employing logistic regression models to identify factors associated with qPCR positivity.

RESULTS

398 travellers arriving by plane and 402 arriving by boat were included. Both cohorts were significantly different. Mean age among travellers arriving by plane was 40.1 years (SD ± 10.1), 93% were male and 96% were employed at the mine. In contrast, among travellers arriving by boat, the mean age was 31.7 years (SD ± 14.0), 68% were male and 36% were employed at the mine. The prevalence of malaria infection among travellers arriving by plane was 1% by RDT and microscopy, and increased to 5% by qPCR. In contrast, those arriving by boat showed a prevalence of 8% by RDT and microscopy, and 17% by qPCR. Risk factors for infection were arriving by boat (OR 4.2; 95%CI 2.45,7.21), arriving from nearby provinces with high malaria incidence (OR 5.02; 95%CI 1.80, 14.01), and having been away from Lihir for 91 days or more (OR 4.15; 95%CI 2.58, 6.66). Being mine worker staying at the mine accommodation was related with less infection risk (OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.14, 0.43); while Lihirian residents returning from a trip, VFRs, or people with trading unrelated to mining had higher risks (p = 0.0066).

CONCLUSIONS

Travellers arriving by boat faced increased risk of malaria infection than those arriving by plane. This subpopulation poses an import risk to the MIZ and the rest of Lihir Islands. Screening of high-risk groups at wharfs, and collaboration with nearby Islands, could sustain reduced transmission and facilitate malaria elimination strategies.

Sampling for malaria molecular surveillance

Strategic use of Plasmodium falciparum genetic variation has great potential to inform public health actions for malaria control and elimination. Malaria molecular surveillance (MMS) begins with a strategy to identify and collect parasite samples, guided by public-health priorities. In this review we discuss sampling design practices for MMS and point out epidemiological, biological, and statistical factors that need to be considered. We present examples for different use cases, including detecting emergence and spread of rare variants, establishing transmission sources and inferring changes in malaria transmission intensity. This review will potentially guide the collection of samples and data, serve as a starting point for further methodological innovation, and enhance utilization of MMS to support malaria elimination.

Gametocyte prevalence and risk factors of P. falciparum malaria patients admitted at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Thailand: a 20-year retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of malaria in Thailand has dramatically declined over the past two decades, and the goal is to eliminate malaria by 2025. Despite significant progress, one of the key challenges to malaria elimination are undetected gametocyte carriers. Human migration adds complexity to the malaria situation, as it not only sustains local transmission but also poses the risk of spreading drug-resistant parasites. Currently, no study has assessed the prevalence of gametocytes across multiple years in Plasmodium falciparum malaria patients in Thailand, and the risk factors for gametocyte carriage have not been fully explored.

METHODS

Medical records of all P. falciparum malaria patients admitted from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2020 at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Thailand, were retrospectively examined and a total of 1962 records were included for analysis. Both P. falciparum parasites and gametocytes were diagnosed by microscopy. A regression model was used to evaluate predictors of gametocyte carriage.

RESULTS

The study demonstrated gametocyte prevalence in low malaria transmission areas. Nine risk factors for gametocyte carriage were identified: age between 15 and 24 years [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-3.26], Karen ethnicity (aOR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.56-4.29), preadmission duration of fever > 7 days (aOR = 5.40, 95% CI 3.92-7.41), fever on admission (> 37.5 °C) (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.48-0.77), haemoglobin ≤ 8 g/dL (aOR = 3.32, 95% CI 2.06-5.33), asexual parasite density > 5000-25,000/µL (aOR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.52-0.98), asexual parasite density > 25,000-100,000/µL (aOR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.53-1.03), asexual parasite density > 100,000/µL (aOR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.36-0.72), platelet count ≤ 100,000/µL (aOR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.50-0.85, clinical features of severe malaria (aOR = 2.33, 95% CI 1.76-3.10) and dry season (aOR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.10-1.80). An increasing incidence of imported transnational malaria cases was observed over the past two decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to determine the prevalence of gametocytes among patients with symptomatic P. falciparum malaria, identify the risk factors for gametocyte carriage, and potential gametocyte carriers in Thailand. Blocking transmission is one of the key strategies for eliminating malaria in these areas. The results might provide important information for targeting gametocyte carriers and improving the allocation of resources for malaria control in Thailand. This study supports the already nationally recommended use of a single dose of primaquine in symptomatic P. falciparum malaria patients to clear gametocytes.

Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province

Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, imported malaria remains a major factor posing challenges in places that have made progress in malaria elimination. The persistence of malaria in Limpopo Province has largely been attributed to imported cases, thus reducing the pace of achieving the malaria-free target by 2025. Data from the Limpopo Malaria Surveillance Database System (2010-2020) was analyzed, and a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to forecast malaria incidence based on the incidence data's temporal autocorrelation. The study found that out of 57,288 people that were tested, 51,819 (90.5%) cases were local while 5469 (9.5%) cases were imported. Mozambique (44.9%), Zimbabwe (35.7%), and Ethiopia (8.5%) were the highest contributors of imported cases. The month of January recorded the highest incidence of cases while the least was in August. Analysis of the yearly figures showed an increasing trend and seasonal variation of recorded malaria cases. The SARIMA (3,1,1) X (3,1,0) [12] model used in predicting expected malaria case incidences for three consecutive years showed a decline in malaria incidences. The study demonstrated that imported malaria accounted for 9.5% of all cases. There is a need to re-focus on health education campaigns on malaria prevention methods and strengthening of indoor residual spray programs. Bodies collaborating toward malaria elimination in the Southern Africa region need to ensure a practical delivery of the objectives.

Retrospective analysis of Plasmodium vivax genomes from a pre-elimination China inland population in the 2010s

Introduction

In malaria-free countries, imported cases are challenging because interconnections with neighboring countries with higher transmission rates increase the risk of parasite reintroduction. Establishing a genetic database for rapidly identifying malaria importation or reintroduction is crucial in addressing these challenges. This study aimed to examine genomic epidemiology during the pre-elimination stage by retrospectively reporting whole-genome sequence variation of 10 Plasmodium vivax isolates from inland China.

Methods

The samples were collected during the last few inland outbreaks from 2011 to 2012 when China implemented a malaria control plan. After next-generation sequencing, we completed a genetic analysis of the population, explored the geographic specificity of the samples, and examined clustering of selection pressures. We also scanned genes for signals of positive selection.

Results

China's inland populations were highly structured compared to the surrounding area, with a single potential ancestor. Additionally, we identified genes under selection and evaluated the selection pressure on drug-resistance genes. In the inland population, positive selection was detected in some critical gene families, including sera, msp3, and vir. Meanwhile, we identified selection signatures in drug resistance, such as ugt, krs1, and crt, and noticed that the ratio of wild-type dhps and dhfr-ts increased after China banned sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for decades.

Discussion

Our data provides an opportunity to investigate the molecular epidemiology of pre-elimination inland malaria populations, which exhibited lower selection pressure on invasion and immune evasion genes than neighbouring areas, but increased drug resistance in low transmission settings. Our results revealed that the inland population was severely fragmented with low relatedness among infections, despite a higher incidence of multiclonal infections, suggesting that superinfection or co-transmission events are rare in low-endemic circumstances. We identified selective signatures of resistance and found that the proportion of susceptible isolates fluctuated in response to the prohibition of specific drugs. This finding is consistent with the alterations in medication strategies during the malaria elimination campaign in inland China. Such findings could provide a genetic basis for future population studies, assessing changes in other pre-elimination countries.

Effect of out-of-village working activities on recent malaria exposure in the Peruvian Amazon using parametric g-formula

In the Amazon Region of Peru, occupational activities are important drivers of human mobility and may increase the individual risk of being infected while contributing to increasing malaria community-level transmission. Even though out-of-village working activities and other mobility patterns have been identified as determinants of malaria transmission, no studies have quantified the effect of out-of-village working activities on recent malaria exposure and proposed plausible intervention scenarios. Using two population-based cross-sectional studies in the Loreto Department in Peru, and the parametric g-formula method, we simulated various hypothetical scenarios intervening in out-of-village working activities to reflect their potential health benefits. This study estimated that the standardized mean outcome (malaria seroprevalence) in the unexposed population (no out-of-village workers) was 44.6% (95% CI: 41.7%-47.5%) and 66.7% (95% CI: 61.6%-71.8%) in the exposed population resulting in a risk difference of 22.1% (95% CI: 16.3%-27.9%). However, heterogeneous patterns in the effects of interest were observed between peri-urban and rural areas (Cochran's Q test = 15.5, p < 0.001). Heterogeneous patterns were also observed in scenarios of increased prevalence of out-of-village working activities and restriction scenarios by gender (male vs. female) and age (18 and under vs. 19 and older) that inform possible occupational interventions targetting population subgroups. The findings of this study support the hypothesis that targeting out-of-village workers will considerably benefit current malaria elimination strategies in the Amazon Region. Particularly, males and adult populations that carried out out-of-village working activities in rural areas contribute the most to the malaria seropositivity (recent exposure to the parasite) in the Peruvian Amazon.

Imported malaria definition and minimum data for surveillance

The mobility of malaria-infected individuals poses challenges to elimination campaigns by way of spreading parasite drug resistance, straining country-to-country collaboration, and making routine data collection difficult, especially in resource-poor settings. Nevertheless, no concerted effort has been made to develop a common framework to define the spatial and temporal components of an imported malaria case and recommend the minimum data needed to identify it. We conducted a scoping review of imported malaria literature from 2010 to 2020 which showed that definitions vary widely, and local capabilities of detecting importation are often restricted in low-income countries. Following this, we propose a common definition for imported malaria and the minimum data required to identify a case, depending on the country's capability of conducting an epidemiological investigation. Lastly, we utilize the proposed definition using data from Brazil to demonstrate both the feasibility and the importance of tracking imported cases. The case of Brazil highlights the capabilities of regular surveillance systems to monitor importation, but also the need to regularly use these data for informing local responses. Supporting countries to use regularly collected data and adopt a common definition is paramount to tackling the importation of malaria cases and achieving elimination goals set forth by the World Health Organization.

Multidisciplinary Investigations of Sustained Malaria Transmission in the Greater Mekong Subregion

In the course of malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), malaria epidemiology has experienced drastic spatiotemporal changes with residual transmission concentrated along international borders and the rising predominance of Plasmodium vivax. The emergence of Plasmodium falciparum parasites resistant to artemisinin and partner drugs renders artemisinin-based combination therapies less effective while the potential spread of multidrug-resistant parasites elicits concern. Vector behavioral changes and insecticide resistance have reduced the effectiveness of core vector control measures. In recognition of these problems, the Southeast Asian International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) has been conducting multidisciplinary research to determine how human migration, antimalarial drug resistance, vector behavior, and insecticide resistance sustain malaria transmission at international borders. These efforts allow us to comprehensively understand the ecology of border malaria transmission and develop population genomics tools to identify and track parasite introduction. In addition to employing in vivo, in vitro, and molecular approaches to monitor the emergence and spread of drug-resistant parasites, we also use genomic and genetic methods to reveal novel mechanisms of antimalarial drug resistance of parasites. We also use omics and population genetics approaches to study insecticide resistance in malaria vectors and identify changes in mosquito community structure, vectorial potential, and seasonal dynamics. Collectively, the scientific findings from the ICEMR research activities offer a systematic view of the factors sustaining residual malaria transmission and identify potential solutions to these problems to accelerate malaria elimination in the GMS.

Spatial analysis to evaluate risk of malaria in Northern Sumatera, Indonesia

Background

As Indonesia aims for malaria elimination by 2030, provisional malaria epidemiology and risk factors evaluation are important in pursue of this national goal. Therefore, this study aimed to understand the risk factor of malaria in Northern Sumatera.

Methods

Malaria cases from 2019 to 2020 were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Health Electronic Database. Climatic variables were provided by the Center for Meteorology and Geophysics Medan branch office. Multivariable logistic regression was undertaken to understand the risk factors of imported malaria. A zero-inflated Poisson multivariable regression model was used to study the climatic drivers of indigenous malaria.

Results

A total of 2208 (indigenous: 76.0% [1679] and imported: 17.8% [392]) were reported during the study period. Risk factors of imported malaria were: ages 19–30 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.67, 2.56), 31–45 (AOR = 5.69; 95% CI 2.65, 12.20), and > 45 years (AOR = 5.11; 95% CI 2.41, 10.84). Military personnel and forest workers and miners were 1,154 times (AOR = 197.03; 95% CI 145.93, 9,131.56) and 44 times (AOR = 44.16; 95% CI 4.08, 477,93) more likely to be imported cases as compared to those working as employees and traders. Indigenous Plasmodium falciparum increased by 12.1% (95% CrI 5.1%, 20.1%) for 1% increase in relative humidity and by 21.0% (95% CrI 9.0%, 36.2%) for 1 °C increase in maximum temperature. Plasmodium vivax decreased by 0.8% (95% CrI 0.2%, 1.3%) and 16.7% (95% CrI 13.7%, 19.9%) for one meter and 1 °C increase of altitude and minimum temperature. Indigenous hotspot was reported by Kota Tanjung Balai city and Asahan regency, respectively. Imported malaria hotspots were reported in Batu Bara, Kota Tebing Tinggi, Serdang Bedagai and Simalungun.

Conclusion

Both indigenous and imported malaria is limited to a few regencies and cities in Northern Sumatera. The control measures should focus on these risk factors to achieve elimination in Indonesia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04262-y.

Case-based malaria surveillance and response: implementation of 1-3-7 approach in Jiangsu Province, China

Following initiation of China's National Malaria Elimination Action Plan (NMEAP) in 2010, China's 1-3-7 surveillance and response approach was developed and rolled out in China to facilitate the malaria control programme and accelerate the progress of malaria elimination. Innovative strategies and interventions have been developed and implemented in Jiangsu Province to facilitate case-based malaria surveillance and response. A total of 9879 malaria cases were reported in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2020. Since 2012, no indigenous malaria cases have been reported in Jiangsu Province. However, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase of imported cases from abroad. To continue improving the malaria surveillance and response system, Jiangsu Province has conducted population-based health education to improve the healthcare seeking behaviour of malaria patients, strengthened the capacity of health facilities to improve the performance of malaria diagnosis and treatment, and strengthened health workforce capacity to improve the implementation of 1-3-7 approach. Continually improving surveillance and response system can play a critical role in the early detection and rapid response of individual malaria cases and prevent the re-establishment of malaria.

Understanding the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, knowledge and barriers to treatment and prevention of malaria among returning international laborers in northern Vietnam: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

With the decline in local malaria transmission in Vietnam as a result of the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) elimination activities, a greater focus on the importation and potential reintroduction of transmission are essential to support malaria elimination objectives.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-method assessment of the demographics, epidemiology, and clinical characteristics of imported malaria among international laborers returning from African or Southeast Asian countries to Vietnam. Firstly, we conducted a retrospective review of hospital records of patients from January 2014 to December 2016. Secondly, we conducted a mixed-methods prospective study for malaria patients admitted to the study sites from January 2017 to May 2018 using a structured survey with blood sample collection for PCR analysis and in-depth interviews. Data triangulation of the qualitative and quantitative data was used during analysis.

RESULTS

International laborers were young (median age 33.0 years IQR 28.0-39.5 years), predominantly male (92%) adults returning mostly from the African continent (84%) who stayed abroad for prolonged periods (median time 13.5 months; IQR 6.0-331.5 months) and were involved in occupations that exposed them to a higher risk of malaria infection. Epidemiological trends were also similar amongst study strands and included the importation of Plasmodium falciparum primarily from African countries and P. vivax from Southeast Asian countries. Of 11 P. malariae and P. ovale infections across two study strands, 10 were imported from the African continent. Participants in the qualitative arm demonstrated limited knowledge about malaria prior to travelling abroad, but reported knowledge transformation through personal or co-worker's experience while abroad. Interestingly, those who had a greater understanding of the severity of malaria presented to the hospital for treatment sooner than those who did not; median of 3 days (IQR 2.0-7.0 days) versus 5 days (IQR 4.0-9.5 days) respectively.

CONCLUSION

To address the challenges to malaria elimination raised by a growing Vietnamese international labor force, consideration should be given to appropriately targeted interventions and malaria prevention strategies that cover key stages of migration including pre-departure education and awareness, in-country prevention and prophylaxis, and malaria screening upon return.

Infectious Diseases, Trade, and Economic Growth: a Panel Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of infectious diseases on trade and economic growth in 88 countries (44 developed countries and 44 developing countries). Annual panel data from 1996 to 2018 are examined using the Pedroni panel cointegration test in order to check the existence of a long-run relationship; FMOLS, DOLS, and the VECM techniques to detect the causality direction. The following findings are established. First, in the long run, infectious diseases are more destructive on economic growth in developing countries than in developed countries. Second, infectious diseases have a negative and significant influence on the trade openness, but more intensively in developed countries than in developing countries. Finally, using the VEC model, our results demonstrate that the short run causality between diseases, economic growth, and trade openness is unidirectional running from infectious diseases to trade and economic growth. However, in the long run, there is bidirectional Granger causality among the running variables. Based on these results, government makers should concentrate more on the healthcare delivery in order to realize higher rates of economic growth and trade.

Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.

Plasmodium falciparum importation does not sustain malaria transmission in a semi-arid region of Kenya

Human movement impacts the spread and transmission of infectious diseases. Recently, a large reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum malaria was identified in a semi-arid region of northwestern Kenya historically considered unsuitable for malaria transmission. Understanding the sources and patterns of transmission attributable to human movement would aid in designing and targeting interventions to decrease the unexpectedly high malaria burden in the region. Toward this goal, polymorphic parasite genes (ama1, csp) in residents and passengers traveling to Central Turkana were genotyped by amplicon deep sequencing. Genotyping and epidemiological data were combined to assess parasite importation. The contribution of travel to malaria transmission was estimated by modelling case reproductive numbers inclusive and exclusive of travelers. P. falciparum was detected in 6.7% (127/1891) of inbound passengers, including new haplotypes which were later detected in locally-transmitted infections. Case reproductive numbers approximated 1 and did not change when travelers were removed from transmission networks, suggesting that transmission is not fueled by travel to the region but locally endemic. Thus, malaria is not only prevalent in Central Turkana but also sustained by local transmission. As such, interrupting importation is unlikely to be an effective malaria control strategy on its own, but targeting interventions locally has the potential to drive down transmission.

Household and individual level risk factors associated with declining malaria incidence in Meghalaya, India: implications for malaria elimination in low-endemic settings

Background

A detailed analysis of household and individual level Plasmodium infection patterns in two low-endemic districts of Meghalaya was undertaken to better understand the epidemiology of malaria in northeast India.

Methods

Socio-demographic and behavioural information from residents (aged 1–69 years) of households were collected through pre-tested, questionnaire conducted in 2018 and 2019. Blood samples collected from participants were tested for Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax infection using rapid diagnostic test, microscopy and PCR. Plasma samples from a subset of participants were analysed for antibodies against thirteen P. falciparum and four P. vivax antigens. Associations between household and individual level risk factors, and Plasmodium infections were evaluated using multilevel logistic regression models.

Results

A total of 2753 individuals from 827 households were enrolled in 2018, and 834 individuals from 222 households were enrolled in 2019. Of them, 33 (1.2%) were positive by PCR for P. falciparum in 2018 and none were positive for P. vivax. In 2019, no PCR-positive individuals were detected. All, but one, infections were asymptomatic; all 33 infections were sub-microscopic. Reported history of malaria in the past 12 months (OR = 8.84) and history of travel in the past 14 days (OR = 10.06) were significantly associated with Plasmodium infection. A significant trend of increased seropositivity with age was noted for all 17 antigens. Although adults (≥ 18 years) consistently had the highest seropositivity rates, a sizeable proportion of under-five children were also found to be seropositive. Almost all individuals (99.4%) reported sleeping under an insecticide-treated bed-net, and household indoor residual spray coverage in the 12 months preceding the survey was low (23%). Most participants correctly identified common signs and symptoms of malaria, i.e., fever (96.4%), headache (71.2%), chills (83.2%) and body-ache (61.8%). Almost all participants (94.3%) used government-provided services for treatment of malaria.

Conclusion

This study explored the epidemiology of malaria in two communities in Meghalaya, India, in the context of declining transmission. The presence of widespread asymptomatic infections and seropositivity among under-five children suggest that low-level Plasmodium transmission persists in this region. Implications of the study findings for malaria elimination efforts in low-transmission settings are discussed.

Entomological Surveillance in Former Malaria-endemic Areas of Southern Italy

Malaria still represents a potential public health issue in Italy, and the presence of former Anopheles vectors and cases imported annually merit continuous surveillance. In areas no longer endemic, the concurrent presence of gametocyte carriers and competent vectors makes re-emergence of local transmission possible, as recently reported in Greece. In October 2017, due to the occurrence of four suspected introduced malaria cases in the province of Taranto (Apulia region), entomological investigations were performed to verify the involvement of local anopheline species. In 2019–2020 entomological surveys were extended to other areas historically prone to malaria between the provinces of Taranto and Matera and the province of Foggia (Gargano Promontory). Resting mosquitoes were collected in animal shelters and human dwellings, larvae were sampled in natural and artificial breeding sites, and specimens were both morphologically and molecularly identified. A total of 2228 mosquitoes were collected, 54.3% of which were anophelines. In all the investigated areas, Anopheles labranchiae was the most widespread species, while Anopheles algeriensis was predominant at the Gargano sites, and Anopheles superpictus and Anopheles plumbeus were recorded in the province of Matera. Our findings showed a potentially high receptivity in the surveyed areas, where the abundance of the two former malaria vectors, An. labranchiae and An. superpictus, is related to environmental and climatic parameters and to anthropic activities.

Clustering of subpatent infections in households with asymptomatic rapid diagnostic test-positive cases in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea independent of travel to regions of higher malaria endemicity: a cross-sectional study

Background

Prevalence of falciparum malaria on Bioko Island remains high despite sustained, intensive control. Progress may be hindered by high proportions of subpatent infections that are not detected by rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) but contribute to onward transmission, and by imported infections. Better understanding of the relationship between subpatent infections and RDT-detected infections, and whether this relationship is different from imported versus locally acquired infections, is imperative to better understand the sources of infection and mechanisms of transmission to tailor more effective interventions.

Methods

Quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed on a sub-set of samples from the 2015 Malaria Indicator Survey to identify subpatent infections. Households with RDT(+) individuals were matched 1:4 with households with no RDT(+) individuals. The association between living in a household with an RDT(+) individual and having a subpatent infection was evaluated using multivariate hierarchical logistic regression models with inverse probability weights for selection. To evaluate possible modification of the association by potential importation of the RDT(+) case, the analysis was repeated among strata of matched sets based on the reported eight-week travel history of the RDT(+) individual(s).

Results

There were 142 subpatent infections detected in 1,400 individuals (10.0%). The prevalence of subpatent infections was higher in households with versus without an RDT(+) individual (15.0 vs 9.1%). The adjusted prevalence odds of subpatent infection were 2.59-fold greater (95% CI: 1.31, 5.09) for those in a household with an RDT(+) individual compared to individuals in a household without RDT(+) individuals. When stratifying by travel history of the RDT(+) individual, the association between subpatent infections and RDT(+) infections was stronger in the strata in which the RDT(+) individual(s) had not recently travelled (adjusted prevalence odds ratio (aPOR) 2.95; 95% CI:1.17, 7.41), and attenuated in the strata in which recent travel was reported (aPOR 1.76; 95% CI: 0.54, 5.67).

Conclusions

There is clustering of subpatent infections around RDT(+) individual(s) when both imported and local infection are suspected. Future control strategies that aim to treat whole households in which an RDT(+) individual is found may target a substantial portion of infections that would otherwise not be detected.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03844-6.

Malaria risk factors in northern Namibia: The importance of occupation, age and mobility in characterizing high-risk populations

In areas of low and unstable transmission, malaria cases occur in populations with lower access to malaria services and interventions, and in groups with specific malaria risk exposures often away from the household. In support of the Namibian National Vector Borne Disease Program's drive to better target interventions based upon risk, we implemented a health facility-based case control study aimed to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria in Zambezi Region, northern Namibia. A total of 770 febrile individuals reporting to 6 health facilities and testing positive by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) between February 2015 and April 2016 were recruited as cases; 641 febrile individuals testing negative by RDT at the same health facilities through June 2016 were recruited as controls. Data on socio-demographics, housing construction, overnight travel, use of malaria prevention and outdoor behaviors at night were collected through interview and recorded on a tablet-based questionnaire. Remotely-sensed environmental data were extracted for geo-located village residence locations. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors and latent class analyses (LCA) used to identify and characterize high-risk subgroups. The majority of participants (87% of cases and 69% of controls) were recruited during the 2016 transmission season, an outbreak year in Southern Africa. After adjustment, cases were more likely to be cattle herders (Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 4.46 95%CI 1.05-18.96), members of the police or other security personnel (aOR: 4.60 95%CI: 1.16-18.16), and pensioners/unemployed persons (aOR: 2.25 95%CI 1.24-4.08), compared to agricultural workers (most common category). Children (aOR 2.28 95%CI 1.13-4.59) and self-identified students were at higher risk of malaria (aOR: 4.32 95%CI 2.31-8.10). Other actionable risk factors for malaria included housing and behavioral characteristics, including traditional home construction and sleeping in an open structure (versus modern structure: aOR: 2.01 95%CI 1.45-2.79 and aOR: 4.76 95%CI: 2.14-10.57); cross border travel in the prior 30 days (aOR: 10.55 95%CI 2.94-37.84); and outdoor agricultural work at night (aOR: 2.09 95%CI 1.12-3.87). Malaria preventive activities were all protective and included personal use of an insecticide treated net (ITN) (aOR: 0.61 95%CI 0.42-0.87), adequate household ITN coverage (aOR: 0.63 95%CI 0.42-0.94), and household indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the past year (versus never sprayed: (aOR: 0.63 95%CI 0.44-0.90). A number of environmental factors were associated with increased risk of malaria, including lower temperatures, higher rainfall and increased vegetation for the 30 days prior to diagnosis and residing more than 5 minutes from a health facility. LCA identified six classes of cases, with class membership strongly correlated with occupation, age and select behavioral risk factors. Use of ITNs and IRS coverage was similarly low across classes. For malaria elimination these high-risk groups will need targeted and tailored intervention strategies, for example, by implementing alternative delivery methods of interventions through schools and worksites, as well as the use of specific interventions that address outdoor transmission.

Post-mortem diagnosis of imported malaria in France: a case report

Background

Malaria is a potentially lethal parasitic disease due to infection by Plasmodium parasites, transmitted by Anopheles mosquito vectors. Various preventative measures may be recommended for travellers who visit endemic areas. The diagnosis is generally evoked in the context of a febrile patient returning from an endemic zone. Nevertheless, symptoms and clinical signs may be difficult to interpret, and fatal cases may only be diagnosed retrospectively with laboratory techniques, specific pathological features and patient history. The present work reports a case of fatal cerebral malaria diagnosed post-mortem, along with the techniques that allowed identification of the causative agent.

Case presentation

A 29 year-old male was found dead in his rental home during a vacation in Southern France. In the absence of explainable cause, an autopsy was performed, which did not retrieve major lesions. In the context of frequent business-related travels in tropical Africa, several samples were adressed for parasitological examination. Microscopy techniques, along with immunochromatographic and molecular biology assays, led to post-mortem diagnosis of fatal cerebral malaria. It was discovered in retrospect that the patient had not used preventative measures against malaria when travelling in endemic zones, and had not been provided with proper travel medicine counseling prior to his travel.

Conclusion

A vast proportion of imported malaria cases reported in France concerns patients who did not use preventive measures, such as bed nets, repellents or chemoprophylaxis. Given the wide availability of prevention tools in developed countries, and the important number of declared imported malaria cases, there is no doubt traveller awareness still needs to be raised. Moreover, healthcare professionals should always question travel history in febrile patients. The authors advocate for recurrent information campaigns for travellers, and physician training for a better prevention and diagnosis of malaria cases.

Cross-border malaria in Northern Brazil

BACKGROUND

Cross-border malaria is a major barrier to elimination efforts. Along the Venezuela-Brazil-Guyana border, intense human mobility fueled primarily by a humanitarian crisis and illegal gold mining activities has increased the occurrence of cross-border cases in Brazil. Roraima, a Brazilian state situated between Venezuela and Guyana, bears the greatest burden. This study analyses the current cross-border malaria epidemiology in Northern Brazil between the years 2007 and 2018.

METHODS

De-identified data on reported malaria cases in Brazil were obtained from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance Information System for the years 2007 to 2018. Pearson's Chi-Square test of differences was utilized to assess differences between characteristics of cross-border cases originating from Venezuela and Guyana, and between border and transnational cases. A logistic regression model was used to predict imported status of cases.

RESULTS

Cross-border cases from Venezuela and Guyana made up the majority of border and transnational cases since 2012, and Roraima remained the largest receiving state for cross-border cases over this period. There were significant differences in the profiles of border and transnational cases originating from Venezuela and Guyana, including type of movement and nationality of patients. Logistic regression results demonstrated Venezuelan and Guyanese nationals, Brazilian miners, males, and individuals of working age had heightened odds of being an imported case. Furthermore, Venezuelan citizens had heightened odds of seeking care in municipalities adjacent Venezuela, rather than transnational municipalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Cross-border malaria contributes to the malaria burden at the Venezuela-Guyana-Brazil border. The identification of distinct profiles of case importation provides evidence on the need to strengthen surveillance at border areas, and to deploy tailored strategies that recognize different mobility routes, such as the movement of refuge-seeking individuals and of Brazilians working in mining.

Phylogenetic Complexity of Morphologically Identified Anopheles squamosus in Southern Zambia

Despite dramatic reductions in malaria cases in the catchment area of Macha Hospital, Choma District, Southern Province in Zambia, prevalence has remained near 1-2% by RDT for the past several years. To investigate residual malaria transmission in the area, this study focuses on the relative abundance, foraging behavior, and phylogenetic relationships of Anopheles squamosus specimens. In 2011, higher than expected rates of anthropophily were observed among "zoophilic" An. squamosus, a species that had sporadically been found to contain Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites. The importance of An. squamosus in the region was reaffirmed in 2016 when P. falciparum sporozoites were detected in numerous An. squamosus specimens. This study analyzed Centers for Disease Control (CDC) light trap collections of adult mosquitoes from two collection schemes: one performed as part of a reactive-test-and-treat program and the second performed along a geographical transect. Morphological identification, molecular verification of anopheline species, and blood meal source were determined on individual samples. Data from these collections supported earlier studies demonstrating An. squamosus to be primarily exophagic and zoophilic, allowing them to evade current control measures. The phylogenetic relationships generated from the specimens in this study illustrate the existence of well supported clade structure among An. squamosus specimens, which further emphasizes the importance of molecular identification of vectors. The primarily exophagic behavior of An. squamosus in these collections also highlights that indoor vector control strategies will not be sufficient for elimination of malaria in southern Zambia.

Analysis of Epidemiological Changes and Prevention Effects for Malaria in Weifang, Shandong Province, China from 1957 to 2017

Background

We aimed to conduct a retrospective analysis of the epidemiological changes and prevention effects for malaria in Weifang, Shandong Peninsula, China from 1957 to 2017.

Methods

The malaria data from a web-based reporting system were analyzed to explore malaria epidemiological characteristics and prevention effects in Weifang.

Results

Overall, 1, 704, 890 malaria cases were reported in Weifang from 1957 to 2017, of which two major malaria epidemics occurred in 1961 (827.28/10, 000) and 1971 (366.14/10, 000). Prior to 1997, all malaria patients (1, 704, 829) were infected with Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). After 2007, the cases of Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) showed an upward trend (76.8%). The reported cases after the 21st century were mainly imported cases, and the last indigenous case was a patient that infected with P. vivax in 2006. Overall, 36 imported cases were reported from 2010 to 2017, of which 88.9% were acquired in Africa. Except for one 32-year-old woman, the rest were male (97.2%), in which laborers and farmers represented the vast majority (66.6%). From 1987 to 2017, there were 1, 224, 474 cases of fever with blood tests, and the average blood test rate was 4.9%. From 1957 to 2017, a total of 1, 704, 890 malaria patients were treated, 96 cases were treated during resting phase from 1987 to 2017.

Conclusion

Weifang should continue to strengthen the management of the migrant population, making blood tests for fever patients and patient treatment as important means of malaria control and monitoring.

Plasmodium falciparum Genetic Diversity in Panamá Based on glurp, msp-1 and msp-2 Genes: Implications for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica

Panamá, together with all the nations in Mesoamerica, has committed to eliminate malaria from the region by 2020. As these countries approach malaria elimination and local transmission decreases, an active molecular surveillance to identify genotypes circulating along the border areas is particularly needed to accurately infer infection origin, drug resistance and disease propagation patterns in the region. This study evaluated the genetic diversity and allele frequencies of msp-1, msp-2 and glurp genes using different molecular analyses (nested PCR, PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequencing) from 106 autochthonous and imported P. falciparum isolates collected from different endemic areas in Panamá between 2003 and 2019. We also explored if P. falciparum genotypes assessed with these molecular markers were associated with relevant malaria epidemiological parameters using a multiple correspondence analysis. A strong association of certain local haplotypes with their geographic distribution in endemic areas, but also with parasite load and presence of gametocytes, was evidenced. Few multiclonal infections and low genetic diversity among locally transmitted P. falciparum samples were detected, consequent with the low transmission intensity of this parasite in Panamá, a pattern likely to be extended across Mesoamerica. In addition, several imported cases were genetically dissimilar to local infections and representative of more diverse extra-continental lineages.

Prevalence, characteristics and risk factors of imported and local malaria cases in North-Western Province, Zambia: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Imported malaria is a major challenge for countries that are in malaria elimination stage such as Zambia. Legitimate cross-border activities add to the risk of transmission, necessitating determination of prevalence, characteristics and risk factors of imported and local malaria.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 103 consented child and adult patients with clinical malaria symptoms, from selected health facilities in north-western Zambia. Patient demographic data and blood samples for malaria microscopy and full blood count were obtained. Chi-square and penalized logistic regression were performed to describe the characteristics and assess the risk factors of imported and local malaria in North-Western Province.

RESULTS

Overall, malaria prevalence was 78.6% with 93.8% Plasmodium falciparum and 6.2% other species. The local cases were 72 (88.9%) while the imported were 9 (11.1%) out of the 81 positive participants. About 98.6% of the local cases were P. falciparum compared to 55.6% (χ2 = 52.4; p < 0.01) P. falciparum among the imported cases. Among the imported cases, 44% were species other than P. falciparum (χ2 = 48; p < 0.01) while among the local cases only 1.4% were. Gametocytes were present in 44% of the imported malaria cases and only in 2.8% of the local cases (χ2 = 48; p < 0.01). About 48.6% of local participants had severe anaemia compared to 33.3% of participants from the two neighbouring countries who had (χ2 = 4.9; p = 0.03). In the final model, only country of residence related positively to presence of species other than P. falciparum (OR = 39.0, CI [5.9, 445.9]; p < 0.01) and presence of gametocytes (OR = 23.1, CI [4.2, 161.6]; p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Malaria prevalence in North-Western Province is high, with P. falciparum as the predominant species although importation of Plasmodium ovale and Plasmodium malariae is happening as well. Country of residence of patients is a major risk factor for malaria species and gametocyte presence. The need for enhanced malaria control with specific focus on border controls to detect and treat, for specific diagnosis and treatment according to species obtaining, for further research in the role of species and gametocytaemia in imported malaria, cannot be overemphasized.

Recent Travel History and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Infection in a Region of Heterogenous Transmission in Southern Province, Zambia

As Zambia continues to reduce its malaria incidence and target elimination in Southern Province, there is a need to identify factors that can reintroduce parasites and sustain malaria transmission. To examine the relative contributions of types of human mobility on malaria prevalence, this analysis quantifies the proportion of the population having recently traveled during both peak and nonpeak transmission seasons over the course of 2 years and assesses the relationship between short-term travel and malaria infection status. Among all residents targeted by mass drug administration in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, 602,620 rapid diagnostic tests and recent travel histories were collected during four campaign rounds occurring between December 2014 and February 2016. Rates of short-term travel in the previous 2 weeks fluctuated seasonally from 0.3% to 1.2%. Travel was significantly associated with prevalent malaria infection both seasonally and overall (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.55; 95% CI: 2.28-2.85). The strength of association between travel and malaria infection varied by travelers' origin and destination, with those recently traveling to high-prevalence areas from low-prevalence areas experiencing the highest odds of malaria infection (AOR: 7.38). Long-lasting insecticidal net usage while traveling was associated with a relative reduction in infections (AOR: 0.74) compared with travelers not using a net. Although travel was directly associated with only a small fraction of infections, importation of malaria via human movement may play an increasingly important role in this elimination setting as transmission rates continue to decline.

Travel Is a Key Risk Factor for Malaria Transmission in Pre-Elimination Settings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis

By sustaining transmission or causing malaria outbreaks, imported malaria undermines malaria elimination efforts. Few studies have examined the impact of travel on malaria epidemiology. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis of studies investigating travel as a risk factor for malaria infection in sub-Saharan Africa using PubMed. We identified 22 studies and calculated a random-effects meta-analysis pooled odds ratio (OR) of 3.77 (95% CI: 2.49–5.70), indicating that travel is a significant risk factor for malaria infection. Odds ratios were particularly high in urban locations when travel was to rural areas, to more endemic/high transmission areas, and in young children. Although there was substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of association across the studies, the pooled estimate and directional consistency support travel as an important risk factor for malaria infection.

The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach

BACKGROUND

Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas.

METHODS

The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t₀ was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit.

RESULTS

Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated.

Malaria Risk Map Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis along Yunnan Border During the Pre-elimination Period

In moving toward malaria elimination, finer scale malaria risk maps are required to identify hotspots for implementing surveillance–response activities, allocating resources, and preparing health facilities based on the needs and necessities at each specific area. This study aimed to demonstrate the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in conjunction with geographic information systems (GISs) to create a spatial model and risk maps by integrating satellite remote-sensing and malaria surveillance data from 18 counties of Yunnan Province along the China–Myanmar border. The MCDA composite and annual models and risk maps were created from the consensus among the experts who have been working and know situations in the study areas. The experts identified and provided relative factor weights for nine socioeconomic and disease ecology factors as a weighted linear combination model of the following: ([Forest coverage × 0.041] + [Cropland × 0.086] + [Water body × 0.175] + [Elevation × 0.297] + [Human population density × 0.043] + [Imported case × 0.258] + [Distance to road × 0.030] + [Distance to health facility × 0.033] + [Urbanization × 0.036]). The expert-based model had a good prediction capacity with a high area under curve. The study has demonstrated the novel integrated use of spatial MCDA which combines multiple environmental factors in estimating disease risk by using decision rules derived from existing knowledge or hypothesized understanding of the risk factors via diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators from the experts. The model and fine MCDA risk map developed in this study could assist in focusing the elimination efforts in the specifically identified locations with high risks.

Influx of diverse, drug resistant and transmissible Plasmodium falciparum into a malaria-free setting in Qatar

BACKGROUND

Successful control programs have impeded local malaria transmission in almost all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, a prodigious influx of imported malaria via migrant workers sustains the threat of local transmission. Here we examine the origin of imported malaria in Qatar, assess genetic diversity and the prevalence of drug resistance genes in imported Plasmodium falciparum, and finally, address the potential for the reintroduction of local transmission.

METHODS

This study examined imported malaria cases reported in Qatar, between 2013 and 2016. We focused on P. falciparum infections and estimated both total parasite and gametocyte density, using qPCR and qRT-PCR, respectively. We also examined ten neutral microsatellites and four genes associated with drug resistance, Pfmrp1, Pfcrt, Pfmdr1, and Pfkelch13, to assess the genetic diversity of imported P. falciparum strains, and the potential for propagating drug resistance genotypes respectively.

RESULTS

The majority of imported malaria cases were P. vivax, while P. falciparum and mixed species infections (P. falciparum / P. vivax) were less frequent. The primary origin of P. vivax infection was the Indian subcontinent, while P. falciparum was mostly presented by African expatriates. Imported P. falciparum strains were highly diverse, carrying multiple genotypes, and infections also presented with early- and late-stage gametocytes. We observed a high prevalence of mutations implicated in drug resistance among these strains, including novel SNPs in Pfkelch13.

CONCLUSIONS

The influx of genetically diverse P. falciparum, with multiple drug resistance markers and a high capacity for gametocyte production, represents a threat for the reestablishment of drug-resistant malaria into GCC countries. This scenario highlights the impact of mass international migration on the reintroduction of malaria to areas with absent or limited local transmission.

Using health facility-based serological surveillance to predict receptive areas at risk of malaria outbreaks in elimination areas

BACKGROUND

In order to improve malaria burden estimates in low transmission settings, more sensitive tools and efficient sampling strategies are required. This study evaluated the use of serological measures from repeated health facility-based cross-sectional surveys to investigate Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission dynamics in an area nearing elimination in Indonesia.

METHODS

Quarterly surveys were conducted in eight public health facilities in Kulon Progo District, Indonesia, from May 2017 to April 2018. Demographic data were collected from all clinic patients and their companions, with household coordinates collected using participatory mapping methods. In addition to standard microscopy tests, bead-based serological assays were performed on finger-prick bloodspot samples from 9453 people. Seroconversion rates (SCR, i.e. the proportion of people in the population who are expected to seroconvert per year) were estimated by fitting a simple reversible catalytic model to seroprevalence data. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with malaria exposure, and spatial analysis was performed to identify areas with clustering of high antibody responses.

RESULTS

Parasite prevalence by microscopy was extremely low (0.06% (95% confidence interval 0.03-0.14, n = 6) and 0 for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively). However, spatial analysis of P. vivax antibody responses identified high-risk areas that were subsequently the site of a P. vivax outbreak in August 2017 (62 cases detected through passive and reactive detection systems). These areas overlapped with P. falciparum high-risk areas and were detected in each survey. General low transmission was confirmed by the SCR estimated from a pool of the four surveys in people aged 15 years old and under (0.020 (95% confidence interval 0.017-0.024) and 0.005 (95% confidence interval 0.003-0.008) for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively). The SCR estimates in those over 15 years old were 0.066 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.105) and 0.032 (95% confidence interval 0.015-0.069) for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate the potential use of health facility-based serological surveillance to better identify and target areas still receptive to malaria in an elimination setting. Further implementation research is needed to enable integration of these methods with existing surveillance systems.

Genetic Evidence of Focal Plasmodium falciparum Transmission in a Pre-elimination Setting in Southern Province, Zambia

BACKGROUND

Southern Province, Zambia has experienced a dramatic decline in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in the past decade and is targeted for elimination. Zambia's National Malaria Elimination Program recommends reactive case detection (RCD) within 140 m of index households to enhance surveillance and eliminate remaining transmission foci.

METHODS

To evaluate whether RCD captures local transmission, we genotyped 26 microsatellites from 106 samples collected from index (n = 27) and secondary (n = 79) cases detected through RCD in the Macha Hospital catchment area between January 2015 and April 2016.

RESULTS

Participants from the same RCD event harbored more genetically related parasites than those from different RCD events, suggesting that RCD captures, at least in part, infections related through local transmission. Related parasites clustered in space and time, up to at least 250 m from index households. Spatial analysis identified a putative focal transmission hotspot.

CONCLUSIONS

The current RCD strategy detects focal transmission events, although programmatic guidelines to screen within 140 m of index households may fail to capture all secondary cases. This study highlights the utility of parasite genetic data in assessing programmatic interventions, and similar approaches may be useful to malaria elimination programs seeking to tailor intervention strategies to the underlying transmission epidemiology.

Characterising malaria connectivity using malaria indicator survey data

Malaria connectivity describes the flow of parasites among transmission sources and sinks within a given landscape. Because of the spatial and temporal scales at which parasites are transported by their hosts, malaria sub-populations are largely defined by mosquito movement and malaria connectivity among them is largely driven by human movement. Characterising malaria connectivity thus requires characterising human travel between areas with differing levels of exposure to malaria. Whilst understanding malaria connectivity is fundamental for optimising interventions, particularly in areas seeking or sustaining elimination, there is a dearth of human movement data required to achieve this goal. Malaria indicator surveys (MIS) are a generally under utilised but potentially rich source of travel data that provide a unique opportunity to study simple associations between malaria infection and human travel in large population samples. This paper shares the experience working with MIS data from Bioko Island that revealed programmatically useful information regarding malaria importation through human travel. Simple additions to MIS questionnaires greatly augmented the level of detail of the travel data, which can be used to characterise human travel patterns and malaria connectivity to assist targeting interventions. It is argued that MIS potentially represent very important and timely sources of travel data that need to be further exploited.

Evaluating Response Time in Zanzibar's Malaria Elimination Case-Based Surveillance-Response System

As countries transition toward malaria elimination, malaria programs rely on surveillance-response systems, which are often supported by web- and mobile phone-based reporting tools. Such surveillance-response systems are interventions for elimination, making it important to determine if they are operating optimally. A metric to measure this by is timeliness. This study used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the response time of Zanzibar's malaria elimination surveillance-response system, Malaria Case Notification (MCN). MCN conducts both passive and reactive case detection, supported by a mobile phone-based reporting tool called Coconut Surveillance. Using data obtained from RTI International and the Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Program (ZAMEP), analysis of summary statistics was conducted to investigate the association of response time with geography, and time series techniques were used to investigate trends in response time and its association with the number of reported cases. Results indicated that response time varied by the district in Zanzibar (0.6-6.05 days) and that it was not associated with calendar time or the number of reported cases. Survey responses and focus groups with a cadre of health workers, district malaria surveillance officers, shed light on operational challenges faced during case investigation, such as incomplete health records and transportation issues, which stem from deficiencies in aspects of ZAMEP's program management. These findings illustrate that timely response for malaria elimination depends on effective program management, despite the automation of web-based or mobile phone-based tools. For surveillance-response systems to work optimally, malaria programs should ensure that optimal management practices are in place.

High Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity and temporal stability despite control efforts in high transmission settings along the international border between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Background

While the utility of parasite genotyping for malaria elimination has been extensively documented in low to moderate transmission settings, it has been less well-characterized in holoendemic regions. High malaria burden settings have received renewed attention acknowledging their critical role in malaria elimination. Defining the role for parasite genomics in driving these high burden settings towards elimination will enhance future control programme planning.

Methods

Amplicon deep sequencing was used to characterize parasite population genetic diversity at polymorphic Plasmodium falciparum loci, Pfama1 and Pfcsp, at two timepoints in June–July 2016 and January–March 2017 in a high transmission region along the international border between Luapula Province, Zambia and Haut-Katanga Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Results

High genetic diversity was observed across both seasons and in both countries. No evidence of population structure was observed between parasite populations on either side of the border, suggesting that this region may be one contiguous transmission zone. Despite a decline in parasite prevalence at the sampling locations in Haut-Katanga Province, no genetic signatures of a population bottleneck were detected, suggesting that larger declines in transmission may be required to reduce parasite genetic diversity. Analysing rare variants may be a suitable alternative approach for detecting epidemiologically important genetic signatures in highly diverse populations; however, the challenge is distinguishing true signals from potential artifacts introduced by small sample sizes.

Conclusions

Continuing to explore and document the utility of various parasite genotyping approaches for understanding malaria transmission in holoendemic settings will be valuable to future control and elimination programmes, empowering evidence-based selection of tools and methods to address pertinent questions, thus enabling more efficient resource allocation.

Applying next-generation sequencing to track falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies are increasingly being used to address a diverse range of biological and epidemiological questions. The current understanding of malaria transmission dynamics and parasite movement mainly relies on the analyses of epidemiologic data, e.g. case counts and self-reported travel history data. However, travel history data are often not routinely collected or are incomplete, lacking the necessary level of accuracy. Although genetic data from routinely collected field samples provides an unprecedented opportunity to track the spread of malaria parasites, it remains an underutilized resource for surveillance due to lack of local awareness and capacity, limited access to sensitive laboratory methods and associated computational tools and difficulty in interpreting genetic epidemiology data. In this review, the potential roles of NGS in better understanding of transmission patterns, accurately tracking parasite movement and addressing the emerging challenges of imported malaria in low transmission settings of sub-Saharan Africa are discussed. Furthermore, this review highlights the insights gained from malaria genomic research and challenges associated with integrating malaria genomics into existing surveillance tools to inform control and elimination strategies.

Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island

Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection among off-island travelers are significantly higher than the rest of the population. We estimate that malaria importation rates are high enough to explain malaria prevalence in much of Malabo and its surroundings, and that local transmission is highest along the West Coast of the island. Despite uncertainty, these estimates of residual transmission and importation serve as a basis for evaluating progress towards elimination and for efficiently allocating resources as Bioko makes the transition from control to elimination.

Designing malaria surveillance strategies for mobile and migrant populations in Nepal: a mixed-methods study

Background

As malaria cases have declined throughout Nepal, imported cases comprise an increasing share of the remaining malaria caseload, yet how to effectively target mobile and migrant populations (MMPs) at greatest risk is not well understood. This formative research aimed to confirm the link between imported and indigenous cases, characterize high-risk MMPs, and identify opportunities to adapt surveillance and intervention strategies to them.

Methods

The study used a mixed-methods approach in three districts in far and mid-western Nepal, including (i) a retrospective analysis of passive surveillance data, (ii) a quantitative health facility-based survey of imported cases and their MMP social contacts recruited by peer-referral, and (iii) focus group (FG) discussions and key informant interviews (KIIs) with a subset of survey participants. Retrospective case data were summarised and the association between monthly indigenous case counts and importation rates in the previous month was investigated using Bayesian spatio-temporal regression models. Quantitative data from structured interviews were summarised to develop profiles of imported cases and MMP contacts, including travel characteristics and malaria knowledge, attitudes and practice. Descriptive statistics of the size of cases’ MMP social networks are presented as a measure of potential programme reach. To explore opportunities and barriers for targeted malaria surveillance, data from FGs and KIIs were formally analysed using a thematic content analysis approach.

Results

More than half (54.1%) of malaria cases between 2013 and 2016 were classified as imported and there was a positive association between monthly indigenous cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.02 95% CI 1.01–1.03) and the previous month’s case importation rate. High-risk MMPs were identified as predominantly adult male labourers, who travel to malaria endemic areas of India, often lack a basic understanding of malaria transmission and prevention, rarely use ITNs while travelling and tend not to seek treatment when ill or prefer informal private providers. Important obstacles were identified to accessing Nepali MMPs at border crossings and at workplaces within India. However, strong social connectivity during travel and while in India, as well as return to Nepal for large seasonal festivals, provide opportunities for peer-referral-based and venue-based surveillance and intervention approaches, respectively.

Conclusions

Population mobility and imported malaria cases from India may help to drive local transmission in border areas of far and mid-western Nepal. Enhanced surveillance targeting high-risk MMP subgroups would improve early malaria diagnosis and treatment, as well as provide a platform for education and intervention campaigns. A combination of community-based approaches is likely necessary to achieve malaria elimination in Nepal.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2791-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Molecular detection of P. vivax and P. ovale foci of infection in asymptomatic and symptomatic children in Northern Namibia

Background

Knowledge of the foci of Plasmodium species infections is critical for a country with an elimination agenda. Namibia is targeting malaria elimination by 2020. To support decision making regarding targeted intervention, we examined for the first time, the foci of Plasmodium species infections and regional prevalence in northern Namibia, using nested and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods.

Methods

We used cross-sectional multi-staged sampling to select 952 children below 9 years old from schools and clinics in seven districts in northern Namibia, to assess the presence of Plasmodium species.

Results

The median participant age was 6 years (25–75%ile 4–8 y). Participants had a median hemoglobin of 12.0 g/dL (25–75%ile 11.1–12.7 g/dL), although 21% of the cohort was anemic, with anemia being severer in the younger population (p<0.002). Most of children with Plasmodium infection were asymptomatic (63.4%), presenting a challenge for elimination. The respective parasite prevalence for Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and Plasmodium ovale curtisi (Po) were (4.41%, 0.84% and 0.31%); with Kavango East and West (10.4%, 6.19%) and Ohangwena (4.5%) having the most prevalence. Pv was localized in Ohangwena, Omusati and Oshana, while Po was found in Kavango. All children with Pv/Pf coinfections in Ohangwena, had previously visited Angola, affirming that perennial migrations are risks for importation of Plasmodium species. The mean hemoglobin was lower in those with Plasmodium infection compared to those without (0.96 g/dL less, 95%CI 0.40–1.52 g/dL less, p = 0.0009) indicating that quasi-endemicity exists in the low transmission setting.

Conclusions

We conclude that Pv and Po species are present in northern Namibia. Additionally, the higher number of asymptomatic infections present challenges to the efforts at elimination for the country. Careful planning, coordination with neighboring Angola and execution of targeted active intervention, will be required for a successful elimination agenda.

Namibia is a member of the SADC elimination 8 (E8) group with a target to eliminate malaria by 2020. This target stems from years of aggressive interventional strategies that has led to significant reductions in morbidity and mortality. The focus of this strategy is mainly on Plasmodium falciparum as the primary parasite species. Foci of transmission is found in the northern border with Angola and Zambia, which also carries the highest population density. Recently as part of the elimination efforts to predict areas likely to have rebound epidemics, three regions Ohangwena, Kavango and Zambezi were identified. In order to affirm these findings and decision-making process for intervention, we assessed the parasite prevalence in 7 northern regional sites for four Plasmodium species. We identified Pv and Po curtisi parasites in Omusati, Ohangwena and Kavango, as well as a significant number of asymptomatic Pf and Pv infections, part of which may be due to importation from neighboring Angola. As Namibia is targeting elimination by 2020, careful thought and planning will be required to reach the goal.

Using parasite genetic and human mobility data to infer local and cross-border malaria connectivity in Southern Africa

Local and cross-border importation remain major challenges to malaria elimination and are difficult to measure using traditional surveillance data. To address this challenge, we systematically collected parasite genetic data and travel history from thousands of malaria cases across northeastern Namibia and estimated human mobility from mobile phone data. We observed strong fine-scale spatial structure in local parasite populations, providing positive evidence that the majority of cases were due to local transmission. This result was largely consistent with estimates from mobile phone and travel history data. However, genetic data identified more detailed and extensive evidence of parasite connectivity over hundreds of kilometers than the other data, within Namibia and across the Angolan and Zambian borders. Our results provide a framework for incorporating genetic data into malaria surveillance and provide evidence that both strengthening of local interventions and regional coordination are likely necessary to eliminate malaria in this region of Southern Africa.

Are malaria elimination efforts on right track? An analysis of gains achieved and challenges ahead

Background

Malaria causes significant morbidity and mortality each year. In the past few years, the global malaria cases have been declining and many endemic countries are heading towards malaria elimination. Nevertheless, reducing the number of cases seems to be easy than sustained elimination. Therefore to achieve the objective of complete elimination and maintaining the elimination status, it is necessary to assess the gains made during the recent years.

Main text

With inclining global support and World Health Organisation (WHO) efforts, the control programmes have been implemented effectively in many endemic countries. Given the aroused interest and investments into malaria elimination programmes at global level, the ambitious goal of elimination appears feasible. Sustainable interventions have played a pivotal role in malaria contraction, however drug and insecticide resistance, social, demographic, cultural and behavioural beliefs and practices, and unreformed health infrastructure could drift back the progress attained so far. Ignoring such impeding factors coupled with certain region specific factors may jeopardise our ability to abide righteous track to achieve global elimination of malaria parasite. Although support beyond the territories is important, but well managed integrated vector management approach at regional and country level using scrupulously selected area specific interventions targeting both vector and parasite along with the community involvement is necessary. A brief incline in malaria during 2016 has raised fresh perturbation on whether elimination could be achieved on time or not.

Conclusions

The intervention tools available currently can most likely reduce transmission but clearing of malaria epicentres from where the disease can flare up any time, is not possible without involving local population. Nevertheless maintaining zero malaria transmission and checks on malaria import in declared malaria free countries, and further speeding up of interventions to stop transmission in elimination countries is most desirable. Strong collaboration backed by adequate political and financial support among the countries with a common objective to eliminate malaria must be on top priority. The present review attempts to assess the progress gained in malaria elimination during the past few years and highlights some issues that could be important in successful malaria elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-019-0524-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Use of open mobile mapping tool to assess human mobility traceability in rural offline populations with contrasting malaria dynamics

Infectious disease dynamics are affected by human mobility more powerfully than previously thought, and thus reliable traceability data are essential. In rural riverine settings, lack of infrastructure and dense tree coverage deter the implementation of cutting-edge technology to collect human mobility data. To overcome this challenge, this study proposed the use of a novel open mobile mapping tool, GeoODK. This study consists of a purposive sampling of 33 participants in six villages with contrasting patterns of malaria transmission that demonstrates a feasible approach to map human mobility. The self-reported traceability data allowed the construction of the first human mobility framework in rural riverine villages in the Peruvian Amazon. The mobility spectrum in these areas resulted in travel profiles ranging from 2 hours to 19 days; and distances between 10 to 167 km. Most Importantly, occupational-related mobility profiles with the highest displacements (in terms of time and distance) were observed in commercial, logging, and hunting activities. These data are consistent with malaria transmission studies in the area that show villages in watersheds with higher human movement are concurrently those with greater malaria risk. The approach we describe represents a potential tool to gather critical information that can facilitate malaria control activities.

Human mobility and factors associated with malaria importation in Lusaka district, Zambia: a descriptive cross sectional study

Background

Malaria is a major public health problem in Zambia with an estimated 4 million confirmed cases and 2389 deaths reported in 2015. Efforts to reduce the incidence of malaria are often undermined by a number of factors such as human mobility which may lead to introduction of imported infections. The aim of this study was to establish the burden of malaria attributed to human mobility in Lusaka district and identify factors associated with malaria importation among residents of Lusaka district.

Methods

A cross sectional study was conducted in five randomly selected health facilities in Lusaka district from November 2015 to February 2016. Data was collected from 260 patients who presented with malaria and whose status was confirmed by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy. Each confirmed malaria case was interviewed using a structured questionnaire to establish their demographic characteristics, travel history and preventive measures. Travel history was used as a proxy to classify cases as either imported or local. Residency was also used as a secondary proxy for importation to compare characteristics of residents vs non-residents in relation to malaria importation. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with malaria importation among residents of Lusaka district.

Results

Out of 260 cases, 94.2% were classified as imported cases based on participants’ travel history. There were 131 (50.4%) males and 129 (49.6%) females. Age distribution ranged from 0 to 68 years with a median age of 15 years (IQR 8–27). Imported cases came from all the ten provinces of Zambia with the Copperbelt Province being the highest contributor (41%). Of all imported cases, use of prophylaxis was found to be highly protective [AOR = 0.22 (95% CI 0.06–0.82); p-value = 0.024]. Other factors that significantly influence malaria transmission and importation by residents include duration of stay in a highly endemic region [AOR = 1.25 (95% CI 1.09–1.44); p-value = 0.001] and frequency of travel [AOR = 3.71 (95% CI 1.26–10.84); p-value = 0.017].

Conclusion

Human mobility has influenced malaria transmission in Lusaka district through a number of factors by importing infections. This leads to onward transmission and poses a challenge to malaria elimination and control. However, taking of prophylaxis is highly protective and must be highly recommended.

Towards the implementation of malaria elimination policy in South Africa: the stakeholders' perspectives

Background: The past decade has seen substantial global reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality due to increased international funding and decisive steps by the international malaria community to fight malaria. South Africa has been declared ready to institute malaria elimination. However, research on the factors that would affect this policy implementation is inadequate.

Objective: To investigate the stakeholders’ understanding of the malaria elimination policy in South Africa, including their perceived barriers and facilitators to effective policy implementation.

Methods: The study followed a constructivist epistemological approach which manifests in phenomenological study design. Twelve purposively selected key informants from malaria researchers, provincial and national malaria programmes were interviewed using semi-structured interviews. Interview questions elicited interviewees’ knowledge of the policy and its achievability, including any perceived barriers and facilitating factors to effective implementation. The hybrid approach was used to perform thematic data analysis.

Results: The dominant view was that malaria remains a problem in South Africa, exacerbated by staff attitudes and poor capacity, lack of resources, lack of new effective intervention tools, lack of intra- and inter-departmental collaboration, poor cross-border collaboration and weak stakeholder collaboration. Informants were concerned about the target year (2018) for elimination, and about the process followed in developing the policy, including the perceived malaria epidemiology shortfalls, regulatory issues and political context of the policy.

Conclusions: Achievability of malaria elimination remains a subject of intense debate for a variety of reasons. These include the sporadic nature of malaria resurgence, raising questions about the contributions of malaria control interventions and climate to the transmission trends in South Africa. The shortage of resources, inadequate staff capacity, lack of any new effective intervention tools, and gaps in malaria epidemiology were key concerns, as was the superficially participative nature of the consultation process followed in developing the policy.

Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria Infection in Nepal

Malaria is endemic in the southern plain of Nepal which shares a porous border with India. More than 80% cases of malaria in Nepal are caused by Plasmodium vivax. The main objective of this study was to review the epidemiology of P. vivax malaria infections as recorded by the national malaria control program of Nepal between 1963 and 2016. National malaria data were retrieved from the National Malaria program in the Ministry of Health, Government of Nepal. The epidemiological trends and malariometric indicators were analyzed. Vivax malaria has predominated over falciparum malaria in the past 53 years, with P. vivax malaria comprising 70-95% of the annual malaria infections. In 1985, a malaria epidemic occurred with 42,321 cases (82% P. vivax and 17% Plasmodium falciparum). Nepal had experienced further outbreaks of malaria in 1991 and 2002. Plasmodium falciparum cases increased from 2005 to 2010 but since then declined. Analyzing the overall trend between 2002 (12,786 cases) until 2016 (1,009 cases) shows a case reduction by 92%. The proportion of imported malaria cases has increased from 18% of cases in 2001 to 50% in 2016. The current trends of malariometric indices indicate that Nepal is making a significant progress toward achieving the goal of malaria elimination by 2025. Most of the cases are caused by P. vivax with imported malaria comprising an increasing proportion of cases. The malaria control program in Nepal needs to counter importation of malaria at high risk areas with collaborative cross border malaria control activities.

Using Google Location History data to quantify fine-scale human mobility

Background

Human mobility is fundamental to understanding global issues in the health and social sciences such as disease spread and displacements from disasters and conflicts. Detailed mobility data across spatial and temporal scales are difficult to collect, however, with movements varying from short, repeated movements to work or school, to rare migratory movements across national borders. While typical sources of mobility data such as travel history surveys and GPS tracker data can inform different typologies of movement, almost no source of readily obtainable data can address all types of movement at once.

Methods

Here, we collect Google Location History (GLH) data and examine it as a novel source of information that could link fine scale mobility with rare, long distance and international trips, as it uniquely spans large temporal scales with high spatial granularity. These data are passively collected by Android smartphones, which reach increasingly broad audiences, becoming the most common operating system for accessing the Internet worldwide in 2017. We validate GLH data against GPS tracker data collected from Android users in the United Kingdom to assess the feasibility of using GLH data to inform human movement.

Results

We find that GLH data span very long temporal periods (over a year on average in our sample), are spatially equivalent to GPS tracker data within 100 m, and capture more international movement than survey data. We also find GLH data avoid compliance concerns seen with GPS trackers and bias in self-reported travel, as GLH is passively collected. We discuss some settings where GLH data could provide novel insights, including infrastructure planning, infectious disease control, and response to catastrophic events, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of using GLH data to inform human mobility patterns.

Conclusions

GLH data are a greatly underutilized and novel dataset for understanding human movement. While biases exist in populations with GLH data, Android phones are becoming the first and only device purchased to access the Internet and various web services in many middle and lower income settings, making these data increasingly appropriate for a wide range of scientific questions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-018-0150-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.