Age-specific HIV incidence among homosexually active men in Australia

Changes in mortality following HIV and AIDS and estimation of the number of people living with diagnosed HIV/AIDS in Australia, 1981-2003

OBJECTIVE

To investigate changes in mortality following HIV and AIDS in Australia.

METHODS

The results of a linkage between HIV/AIDS diagnoses and the National Death Index (NDI) to the end of 2003 were used to estimate mortality rates following HIV/AIDS. Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) were calculated for deaths following HIV, with and without AIDS, in three periods of treatment; before antiretroviral therapy (< or =1989), pre- and early-HAART (1990-1996) and HAART (1997-2003). Crude mortality rates were calculated as the number of deaths per 1000 person-years. The total number of people living with HIV/AIDS was estimated.

RESULTS

There were 1789 deaths following HIV without AIDS and 6730 deaths after AIDS. For deaths following HIV without AIDS, the SMRs were 2.99, 1.22 and 1.6 during the periods before 1990, 1990-1996 and 1997-2003. For deaths after AIDS the SMRs were 137.84, 28.64 and 4.55 in the periods one to three, respectively. The crude death rate following HIV without AIDS increased from 16.8 before 1986 to 19.6 in 2003. Death rates after AIDS decreased from 958.7 up to 1986 to 60.4 in 2003. The number of new HIV diagnoses increased to 1276 in 1990 then decreased to 780 in 2003, while AIDS diagnoses increased to 950 in 1994 then decreased to 252 in 2003. The total number of people living with HIV was estimated to be 7873 in 1989, and 12828 in 2003.

CONCLUSION

Mortality following AIDS decreased while deaths before AIDS remained low. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has increased.

Characterizing trends in HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Australia by birth cohorts: results from a modified back-projection method

Background

We set out to estimate historical trends in HIV incidence in Australian men who have sex with men with respect to age at infection and birth cohort.

Methods

A modified back-projection technique is applied to data from the HIV/AIDS Surveillance System in Australia, including "newly diagnosed HIV infections", "newly acquired HIV infections" and "AIDS diagnoses", to estimate trends in HIV incidence over both calendar time and age at infection.

Results

Our results demonstrate that since 2000, there has been an increase in new HIV infections in Australian men who have sex with men across all age groups. The estimated mean age at infection increased from ~35 years in 2000 to ~37 years in 2007. When the epidemic peaked in the mid 1980s, the majority of the infections (56%) occurred among men aged 30 years and younger; 30% occurred in ages 31 to 40 years; and only ~14% of them were attributed to the group who were older than 40 years of age. In 2007, the proportion of infections occurring in persons 40 years or older doubled to 31% compared to the mid 1980s, while the proportion of infections attributed to the group younger than 30 years of age decreased to 36%.

Conclusion

The distribution of HIV incidence for birth cohorts by infection year suggests that the HIV epidemic continues to affect older homosexual men as much as, if not more than, younger men. The results are useful for evaluating the impact of the epidemic across successive birth cohorts and study trends among the age groups most at risk.

Management of HIV/AIDS on the Mid North Coast: a collaborative model of care involving general practitioners and the public health system

The Coffs Harbour AIDS Information Network was set up to co-ordinate care planning and support service delivery for HIV/AIDS patients. This paper describes a collaborative model of care that brought together private general practitioners, a community nurse and a sexual health counsellor. Time involved in delivering services was monitored for each of the health professional groups during a 6 month period. Twenty-three patients were involved in our study. Doctors averaged 23 min per consultation over 57 occasions of service. Travel or telephone contact took up 17% of the time spent on these patients. Corresponding figures for the nurse and counsellor were an average of 67 min over 144 services and 71 min over 16 services. They spent 16% and 27% of their time travelling or on the phone, respectively. HIV/AIDS care is time consuming for health professionals but comprehensive care can be given in rural areas with adequate support and integration.

Predictors of progression in long-term nonprogressors. Australian Long-Term Nonprogressor Study Group

It is now apparent that a proportion of individuals (5-8%) remains clinically free of HIV-1 disease with normal levels of CD4+ lymphocytes (> or =500/microl) for more than 8 years following infection. However, the proportion of these individuals who ultimately progress to AIDS remains to be established. We determined the virological and immunological characteristics of a cohort of long-term nonprogressors in Australia and examined the role of these factors in predicting disease progression. Individuals with documented asymptomatic HIV-1 infection for at least 8 years with CD4+ lymphocyte counts >500 cells/microl were recruited from hospital clinics and general practices serving the eastern area of Australia. CD4+ lymphocyte count, rate of CD4+ lymphocyte change, CD8+ lymphocyte count, beta2-microglobulin, immune complex dissociated (ICD) HIV-1 p24 antigen, and plasma HIV-1 RNA were measured at baseline and multiple visits at 6-month intervals over an average period of 2 years. Up to November 1996, 67 study participants were recruited, of whom 72% had been infected with HIV-1 for at least 10 years. HIV-1 RNA correlated with beta2-microglobulin, ICD p24 antigen, and the ability to isolate virus in culture but not with levels of CD4+ or CD8+ lymphocytes. Serum beta2-microglobulin was a stronger predictor of CD4+ lymphocyte decline than HIV-1 RNA and the only factor significantly associated with CD4+ lymphocyte decline. These findings show that the serum concentration of beta2-microglobulin is a strong predictor of immunological progression in people with long-term asymptomatic HIV-1 infection and provides additional prognostic information to HIV-1 RNA in determining the risk of disease progression.

Assessing the National HIV/AIDS Strategy evaluation

The report is a useful compilation of data on Australia's HIV/AIDS epidemic and the response to it. The report produces firm evidence for endorsing Australia's success in limiting the spread of HIV by a number of routes. Australia has been successful in preventing iatrogenic spread, spread through commercial sex and spread through injecting drug use. In the latter case however, the hepatitis C epidemic cautions against complacency. The report, unfortunately, does not recognise very serious weaknesses in the evidence it uses as a basis for its endorsement of current efforts against HIV in the male homosexual community and the general heterosexual community. The report recognises failure of current policies in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and recognises the threat posed here by HIV but recommends no major policy change. There is some recognition of the limitation of the data, but no recommendation for increased surveillance. The report ignores methods of prevention other than public health education. In my view, there is sufficient evidence to recommend routine neonatal circumcision, at least in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. There is a clear need for a more effective approach to STD control, particularly in these communities. Adequate STD and HIV control may well require contact tracing and surveillance using traditional public health methods. Measurement of objective indicators of the success of HIV prevention campaigns needs to be improved with more comprehensive collection of data on HIV and STD incidence and condom sales, stratified by relevant covariates. Survey evidence of behavioural change should be collected from those too young to be affected by the selective mortality factor. The international comparisons await a proper statistical study which may be able to identify the elements of an effective approach to AIDS. In future reviews of the effectiveness of Australia's response to AIDS, all methods of limiting the spread of the epidemic should be considered objectively. It is unacceptable for the AIDS program to be declared optimal simply because it accords with current public health ideology.