Death and readmission in the year after hospital admission with cardiovascular disease: the Hunter Area Heart and Stroke Register

Temporal Trends and Patient Characteristics Associated with 30-Day Hospital Readmission Rates after a First Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist about relatively recent trends in the magnitude and characteristics of patients who are re-hospitalized after hospital admission for an acute myocardial infarction. This study examined trends in the frequency and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of patients readmitted to the hospital within 30 days after an initial acute myocardial infarction.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of 3116 individuals who were hospitalized for a validated first acute myocardial infarction in 6 study periods between 2003 and 2015 at the 3 major medical centers in central Massachusetts.

RESULTS

The median age of our population was 67 years, and 42% were women. The risk of being readmitted to the hospital within 30 days after an initial acute myocardial infarction increased slightly during the most recent study years after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Overall, older adults and patients with previously diagnosed atrial fibrillation, heart failure, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, stroke, and peripheral vascular disease were at higher risk for being readmitted to the hospital than respective comparison groups. For those hospitalized in the most recent study years of 2011/2015, a higher risk of rehospitalization was associated with a previous diagnosis of chronic kidney disease, peripheral vascular disease, the presence of 3 or more chronic conditions, and having developed atrial fibrillation or heart failure during the patient's hospitalization for a first acute myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several groups at higher risk for hospital readmission in whom enhanced surveillance efforts as well as tailored educational and treatment approaches remain needed.

Machine Learning-Enabled 30-Day Readmission Model for Stroke Patients

Background and Purpose: Hospital readmissions impose a substantial burden on the healthcare system. Reducing readmissions after stroke could lead to improved quality of care especially since stroke is associated with a high rate of readmission. The goal of this study is to enhance our understanding of the predictors of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke and develop models to identify high-risk individuals for targeted interventions. Methods: We used patient-level data from electronic health records (EHR), five machine learning algorithms (random forest, gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting-XGBoost, support vector machine, and logistic regression-LR), data-driven feature selection strategy, and adaptive sampling to develop 15 models of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke. We further identified important clinical variables. Results: We included 3,184 patients with ischemic stroke (mean age: 71 ± 13.90 years, men: 51.06%). Among the 61 clinical variables included in the model, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score above 24, insert indwelling urinary catheter, hypercoagulable state, and percutaneous gastrostomy had the highest importance score. The Model's AUC (area under the curve) for predicting 30-day readmission was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.64-0.78) with PPV of 0.43 when the XGBoost algorithm was used with ROSE-sampling. The balance between specificity and sensitivity improved through the sampling strategy. The best sensitivity was achieved with LR when optimized with feature selection and ROSE-sampling (AUC: 0.64, sensitivity: 0.53, specificity: 0.69). Conclusions: Machine learning-based models can be designed to predict 30-day readmission after stroke using structured data from EHR. Among the algorithms analyzed, XGBoost with ROSE-sampling had the best performance in terms of AUC while LR with ROSE-sampling and feature selection had the best sensitivity. Clinical variables highly associated with 30-day readmission could be targeted for personalized interventions. Depending on healthcare systems' resources and criteria, models with optimized performance metrics can be implemented to improve outcomes.

Contemporary trends in stroke complicating cardiac catheterisation

BACKGROUND

Stroke remains an important complication of diagnostic cardiac catheterisation and percutaneous coronary intervention and is associated with high rates of in-hospital mortality.

AIMS

To evaluate the incidence of stroke over a 10-year period and assess the long-term influence of stroke following cardiac catheterisation and PCI on functional outcomes, based on modified Rankin score and mortality.

METHODS

The study was performed using a case-control design in a single tertiary referral centre. Patients were identified by correlating those patients undergoing cardiac catheterisation between October 2006 and December 2016 with patients who underwent neuroimaging within 7 days to identify possible cases of suspected stroke or transient ischaemic attack.

RESULTS

A total of 21 510 patients underwent cardiac catheterisation during the study period. Sixty (0.28%) patients experienced stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Compared to control patients, those who did experience cerebral ischaemic events were older (70.5 vs 64 years; P < 0.001), with higher rates of atrial fibrillation, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Stroke complicating cardiac catheterisation was associated with an increased risk of readmission, with a significantly higher hazard of readmission for stroke noted. Despite minimal functional impairment based on modified Rankin score, stroke was associated with a significant risk of early and cumulative mortality. Stroke incidence remained stable over the study period despite changes in procedural practice.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and functional severity of stroke remains low despite evolving procedural practice with a stable incidence over time despite changes in procedural practice; however, post-procedural stroke confirms an increased mortality hazard.

Mortality and Readmission Following Hospitalisation for Heart Failure in Australia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly condition with an increasing burden on Australian health care system resources. Knowledge of the burden of HF on patients and on the health system is important for resource allocation. This study is the first systematic review to estimate the mortality and readmission rates after hospitalisation for HF in the Australian population.

METHODS

We searched for studies of HF hospitalisation in Australia published between January 1990 and May 2016, using a systematic search of PubMed, Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases. Studies reporting 30-day and/or 1-year outcomes for mortality or readmission following hospitalisation were eligible and included in this study.

RESULTS

Out of 2889 articles matching the initial search criteria, a total of 13 studies representing 67,255 patients were included in the final analysis. The pooled mean age of heart failure patients was 76.3 years and 51% were male (n=34,271). The pooled estimated 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality were 8% and 25% respectively. The pooled estimated 30-day and 1-year all-cause readmission rates were 20% and 56% respectively. There is a high prevalence of comorbidities in heart failure patients. There were limited data on readmission and mortality in rural patients and Indigenous people.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure hospitalisations in Australia are followed by substantial readmission and mortality rates.

Quality of Care and Ischemic Stroke Risk After Hospitalization for Transient Ischemic Attack: Findings From Get With The Guidelines-Stroke

BACKGROUND

Patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at increased risk for ischemic stroke. We derived a prediction rule for 1-year ischemic stroke risk post-TIA, examining estimated risk, receipt of inpatient quality of care measures for TIA, and the presence or absence of stroke at 1 year post discharge.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We linked 67 892 TIA Get With The Guidelines-Stroke patients >65 years (2003-2008) to Medicare inpatient claims to obtain longitudinal outcomes. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling in a split sample, we identified baseline demographics and clinical characteristics associated with ischemic stroke admission during the year post-TIA, and developed a Get With The Guidelines Ischemic Stroke after TIA Risk Score; performance was examined in the validation sample. Quality of care was estimated by a global defect-free care measure, and individual performance measures within estimated risk score quintiles. The overall hospital admission rate for ischemic stroke during the year post-TIA was 5.7%. Patients with ischemic stroke were more likely to be older, black, and have higher rates of smoking, previous stroke, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. The Risk Score showed moderate discriminative performance (c-statistic=0.606); highest quintile patients were less likely to receive statins, smoking cessation counseling, and defect-free care. Although not associated with 1-year ischemic stroke, DCF was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

TIA patients with high estimated ischemic stroke risk are less likely to receive defect-free care than low-risk patients. Standardized risk assessment and delivery of optimal inpatient care are needed to reduce this risk-treatment mismatch.

Difficulties of Portuguese Patients Following Acute Myocardial Infarction: Predictors of Readmissions and Unchanged Lifestyles

PURPOSE

Myocardial infarction can occur due to known risk factors and lifestyle choices. The difficulties that patients experience after discharge can lead to readmission and nonadherence to lifestyle change. The purpose of this study was to analyze the difficulties experienced by patients after hospitalization due to myocardial infarction and to identify the predictors of readmission and unchanged lifestyles.

METHODS

The study used a mixed-methods design across 106 patients who had experienced a first episode of acute myocardial infarction. The data were collected from two patient interviews and the patients' medical records. A logistic regression was used to predict unchanged lifestyle and readmission.

RESULTS

In the first interview, 74.5% of the patients reported receiving information prior to discharge. Six months after discharge, 80.2% mentioned that they had changed their lifestyles, but only 59.4% reported that their health had improved, and 75.5% continued to have concerns regarding their health. Patients described difficulties with regard to psychological problems, family dynamics, professional issues, problems with managing cardiovascular symptoms, and complications associated with hospital interventions. A follow-up assessment revealed that 12.3% of patients had been readmitted for cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis revealed significant predictors of readmission amongst patients with hypertension and three-vessel disease. Specifically, the number of people in the household, per capita income, and a lack of information/education provided at discharge as well as problems related to mental health after discharge predicted unchanged lifestyle. An educational program might be advantageous to clarify doubts and involve patients in their own disease management.

Thirty-Day Readmission Predicts 1-Year Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

There is limited knowledge of the prognostic indicators after hospital discharge after acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim was to determine risk factors for mortality after discharge in patients admitted with AP.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including consecutive patients with AP admitted to the Cleveland Clinic between 2007 and 2011. Clinical data, mortality status, and the date of death were collected. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression was performed to determine variables significantly associated with mortality within a year of discharge.

RESULTS

Three hundred thirty-one patients were included in the study, current to July 2012. After a mean follow-up of 20 months, 41 subjects (12.4%) died after discharge from the hospital. Thirty-three (10.0%) died within a year after discharge. In univariable analyses, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, blood urea nitrogen > 20 on admission, higher Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis scores, longer length of stay, and readmission within 30 days were associated with a higher hazard of mortality. In the multivariable analysis, subjects who were readmitted within 30 days had a 4.5 times higher hazard of dying within a year than those who were not readmitted (hazard ratio, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-9.1).

CONCLUSION

A higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, early readmission, and longer hospitalization predict a higher 1-year mortality after AP.

Thirty-day Hospital Readmissions in Patients with Non-ST-segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist about relatively recent trends in the magnitude and characteristics of patients who are rehospitalized shortly after admission for a non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). This observational study describes decade-long trends (1999-2009) in the magnitude and characteristics of patients readmitted to the hospital within 30 days of hospitalization for an incident (initial) episode of NSTEMI.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of 2249 residents of the Worcester (Mass) metropolitan area who were hospitalized for an initial NSTEMI in 6 biennial periods between 1999 and 2009 at 3 central Massachusetts medical centers.

RESULTS

The average age of our study population was 72 years, 90% were white, and 46% were women. The proportion of patients who were readmitted to the hospital for any cause within 30 days after discharge for an NSTEMI remained unchanged between 1999 and 2009 (approximately 15%) in both crude and multivariable adjusted analyses. Slight declines were observed for cardiovascular disease-related 30-day readmissions over the 10-year study period. Women, elderly patients, those with multiple chronic comorbidities or a prolonged index hospitalization, and patients who developed heart failure during their index hospitalization were at higher risk for being readmitted within 30 days than respective comparison groups.

CONCLUSION

Thirty-day hospital readmission rates after hospital discharge for a first NSTEMI remained stable between 1999 and 2009. We identified several groups at higher risk for hospital readmission; further surveillance efforts and/or tailored educational and treatment approaches remain needed for these groups.

A systematic approach to chronic heart failure care: a consensus statement

The National Heart Foundation of Australia assembled an expert panel to provide guidance on policy and system changes to improve the quality of care for people with chronic heart failure (CHF). The recommendations have the potential to reduce emergency presentations, hospitalisations and premature death among patients with CHF. Best-practice management of CHF involves evidence-based, multidisciplinary, patient-centred care, which leads to better health outcomes. A CHF care model is required to achieve this. Although CHF management programs exist, ensuring access for everyone remains a challenge. This is particularly so for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, those from non-metropolitan areas and lower socioeconomic backgrounds, and culturally and linguistically diverse populations. Lack of data and inadequate identification of people with CHF prevents efficient patient monitoring, limiting information to improve or optimise care. This leads to ineffectiveness in measuring outcomes and evaluating the CHF care provided. Expanding current cardiac registries to include patients with CHF and developing mechanisms to promote data linkage across care transitions are essential. As the prevalence of CHF rises, the demand for multidisciplinary workforce support will increase. Workforce planning should provide access to services outside of large cities, one of the main challenges it is currently facing. To enhance community-based management of CHF, general practitioners should be empowered to lead care. Incentive arrangements should favour provision of care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and rural areas, and culturally and linguistically diverse populations. Ongoing research is vital to improving systems of care for people with CHF. Future research activity needs to ensure the translation of valuable knowledge and high-quality evidence into practice.

Risk adjustment of ischemic stroke outcomes for comparing hospital performance: a statement for healthcare professionals from the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke is the fourth-leading cause of death and a leading cause of long-term major disability in the United States. Measuring outcomes after stroke has important policy implications. The primary goals of this consensus statement are to (1) review statistical considerations when evaluating models that define hospital performance in providing stroke care; (2) discuss the benefits, limitations, and potential unintended consequences of using various outcome measures when evaluating the quality of ischemic stroke care at the hospital level; (3) summarize the evidence on the role of specific clinical and administrative variables, including patient preferences, in risk-adjusted models of ischemic stroke outcomes; (4) provide recommendations on the minimum list of variables that should be included in risk adjustment of ischemic stroke outcomes for comparisons of quality at the hospital level; and (5) provide recommendations for further research.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This statement gives an overview of statistical considerations for the evaluation of hospital-level outcomes after stroke and provides a systematic review of the literature for the following outcome measures for ischemic stroke at 30 days: functional outcomes, mortality, and readmissions. Data on outcomes after stroke have primarily involved studies conducted at an individual patient level rather than a hospital level. On the basis of the available information, the following factors should be included in all hospital-level risk-adjustment models: age, sex, stroke severity, comorbid conditions, and vascular risk factors. Because stroke severity is the most important prognostic factor for individual patients and appears to be a significant predictor of hospital-level performance for 30-day mortality, inclusion of a stroke severity measure in risk-adjustment models for 30-day outcome measures is recommended. Risk-adjustment models that do not include stroke severity or other recommended variables must provide comparable classification of hospital performance as models that include these variables. Stroke severity and other variables that are included in risk-adjustment models should be standardized across sites, so that their reliability and accuracy are equivalent. There is a pressing need for research in multiple areas to better identify methods and metrics to evaluate outcomes of stroke care.

CONCLUSIONS

There are a number of important methodological challenges in undertaking risk-adjusted outcome comparisons to assess the quality of stroke care in different hospitals. It is important for stakeholders to recognize these challenges and for there to be a concerted approach to improving the methods for quality assessment and improvement.

The Rural Prehospital Acute Stroke Triage (PAST) Trial Protocol: A Controlled Trial for Rapid Facilitated Transport of Rural Acute Stroke Patients to a Regional Stroke Centre

Rationale

Access to intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischaemic stroke is limited worldwide, particularly in regional and rural areas including in Australia. We are testing the effectiveness of a new rural Prehospital Acute Stroke Triage protocol that includes prehospital assessment and rapid transport of patients from a rural catchment to the major stroke centre in Newcastle, NSW, Australia. The local district hospitals within the rural catchment do not have the capability or infrastructure to deliver acute stroke thrombolysis. The trial has relevance to stroke clinicians, health service managers and planners responsible for rural populations.

Aims

To implement a system of rapid prehospital assessment and facilitated transport that will significantly increase stroke thrombolysis rates to 10% of ischaemic stroke cases in the rural catchment. Validate an eight-point modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale for use by paramedics in the prehospital setting to assess patients' potential eligibility for stroke thrombolysis.

Design

The joint project between the John Hunter Hospital Acute Stroke Team and the Ambulance Service of NSW will use a prospective cohort with an historical control group. Tools and protocols have been developed and education undertaken for ambulance field and operations centre personnel. These include a cut-down eight-item National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (Hunter NIHSS-8) score to be used in the field by paramedics and a transport decision matrix to expedite transport for a suspected stroke patient (road or road plus air transport).

Outcomes

The primary outcome measure will be the rate of intravenous tissue plasminogen activator delivery for those who suffer an ischaemic stroke following protocol implementation, in comparison with historical rates over a corresponding period prior to implementation, for residents within the catchment. Sixty cases are required in the postimplementation time epoch to demonstrate a statistically significant absolute increase in thrombolysis rates for ischaemic strokes from <1% to 10%, (power of 80%, α error of 0.05). The major secondary outcome will be inter-rater reliability of the Hunter NIHSS-8.

Predictors of hospital readmission after stroke: a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Risk-standardized hospital readmission rates are used as publicly reported measures reflecting quality of care. Valid risk-standardized models adjust for differences in patient-level factors across hospitals. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to identify models that compare hospital-level poststroke readmission rates, evaluate patient-level risk scores predicting readmission, or describe patient and process-of-care predictors of readmission after stroke.

METHODS

Relevant studies in English published from January 1989 to July 2010 were identified using MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, PsycINFO, and all Ovid Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews. Authors of eligible publications reported readmission within 1 year after stroke hospitalization and identified ≥ 1 predictors of readmission in risk-adjusted statistical models. Publications were excluded if they lacked primary data or quantitative outcomes, reported only composite outcomes, or had < 100 patients.

RESULTS

Of 374 identified publications, 16 met the inclusion criteria for this review. No model was specifically designed to compare risk-adjusted readmission rates at the hospital level or calculate scores predicting a patient's risk of readmission. The studies providing multivariable models of patient-level and/or process-of-care factors associated with readmission varied in stroke definitions, data sources, outcomes (all-cause and/or stroke-related readmission), durations of follow-up, and model covariates. Few characteristics were consistently associated with readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified no risk-standardized models for comparing hospital readmission performance or predicting readmission risk after stroke. Patient-level and system-level factors associated with readmission were inconsistent across studies. The current literature provides little guidance for the development of risk-standardized models suitable for the public reporting of hospital-level stroke readmission performance.

Cost burden of cardiovascular hospitalization and mortality in ATHENA-like patients with atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter in the United States

BACKGROUND

The ATHENA trial (A placebo-controlled, double-blind, parallel arm Trial to assess the efficacy of dronedarone 400 mg bid for the prevention of cardiovascular Hospitalization or death from any cause in patiENts with Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter) demonstrated that dronedarone reduced the risk of cardiovascular (CV) hospitalization/death by 24% (P < 0.001) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL).

HYPOTHESIS

In order to estimate the cost savings associated with dronedarone use, we estimated the costs associated with CV hospitalizations and inpatient mortality in a large cohort of ATHENA-like patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, we evaluated the cost of CV hospitalization/mortality in real-world ATHENA-like patients without heart failure and with employer-sponsored Medicare supplemental insurance in the United States. Patients similar to those in ATHENA (age > or = 70 years with AF/AFL and > or = 1 stroke risk factor, without heart failure) who were hospitalized between January 2, 2005, and January 1, 2007, were identified from the MarketScan databases from Thomson Reuters. Health care costs were evaluated during the 12 months following the index hospitalization.

RESULTS

The analysis included 10 200 ATHENA-like patients. Hospitalization for CV causes occurred in 53.9% of patients, with a total of 6700 CV hospitalizations for fatal/nonfatal causes. The most common nonfatal causes of CV hospitalizations were AF/other supraventricular rhythm disorders (20.2% of all CV hospitalizations), congestive heart failure (CHF; 14.3%), and transient ischemic attack (TIA)/stroke (10.7%). Mean costs per CV hospitalization for nonfatal causes were $10,908. Inpatient deaths from CV causes occurred in 264 (2.6%) patients; the most common causes of CV inpatient death were intracranial/gastrointestinal hemorrhage (24.2% of CV deaths), TIA/stroke (17.0%), and CHF (15.9%). Mean hospitalization costs per CV inpatient death were $18,565.

CONCLUSIONS

Health care costs associated with CV hospitalizations and inpatient deaths among ATHENA-like patients in the US are high. Novel antiarrhythmic therapies such as dronedarone, with the potential to reduce CV hospitalizations/mortality in similar patients, could decrease health care costs if adopted in clinical practice.

The incidence of stroke after myocardial infarction: a meta-analysis

PURPOSE

While the risk of stroke after myocardial infarction (MI) is increased compared with the risk among those without MI, the magnitude of this risk remains unclear. Although numerous clinical trials have reported the incidence of stroke following MI, these are among selected populations. We reviewed cohort studies reporting the incidence of stroke after MI to better define the risk of ischemic stroke in an unselected population.

METHODS

A computerized literature search (MEDLINE and PubMed) and manual review of reference lists of identified articles were conducted. Population-based studies published from 1978-2004 with at least 100 subjects that reported number or percent of ischemic strokes experienced by MI survivors were identified. Data were extracted using standardized forms, and study quality was assessed by 2 independent reviewers. Ischemic stroke rates were reported as number of events per 1000 MI with 95% confidence intervals (CI) calculated by Poisson distribution. A combined stroke rate was calculated for in-hospital, 30 days, and 1-year post-MI using weights of 1/variance. A random-effects model also was created to estimate in-hospital stroke rate. Variability in study designs and outcome definitions limit synthesis of available data.

RESULTS

During hospitalization for the index MI, 11.1 ischemic strokes occurred per 1000 MI compared with 12.2 at 30 days and 21.4 at 1 year. Using a random-effects model, 14.5 strokes occurred per 1000 MI. Positive predictors of stroke after MI included: advanced age, diabetes, hypertension, history of prior stroke, anterior location of index MI, prior MI, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and nonwhite race.

CONCLUSIONS

The public health implications of stroke among MI survivors, as well as the large number of MI survivors, underscore the need to be aware of this devastating complication. Further research is needed to determine the optimal stroke prevention strategies for MI survivors.

Readmission patterns in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic heart failure and diabetes mellitus: an administrative dataset analysis

Comprehensive disease management programmes for chronic disease aim to improve patient outcomes and reduce health-care utilization. Readmission rates are often used as an outcome measure of effectiveness. This study aimed to document readmission rates, and risk for early and late readmission, for patients discharged from the Royal Melbourne Hospital with a disease diagnosis of chronic heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or diabetes mellitus compared to those with other general medical conditions. Eighty five (8.6%) of patients were readmitted within 28 days and 183 (20.8%) were readmitted between 29 and 180 days. No risk factors for early readmission were identified. Patients with a primary disease diagnosis of CHF and COPD are at increased risk of late readmissions (29-180 days).

Gender and risk of adverse outcomes in heart failure

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is the leading cause of hospitalization in the elderly, and these patients are at high risk for subsequent hospitalization. Whether gender affects the risk of rehospitalization in patients who have CHF is less well understood. We studied a random sample of 1,700 adults who had been hospitalized with CHF (from July 1, 1999 to June 30, 2000) and identified all readmissions through June 30, 2001. We used proportional hazards regression to evaluate whether gender affects the risk of all-cause and CHF-specific rehospitalization, after adjusting for differences in demographic characteristics, health-related behaviors, co-morbid conditions, left ventricular systolic function status, and use of CHF therapies. Among 1,591 adults who had confirmed CHF, 752 were women (47.3%). Women were older than men (73 vs 71 years, p <0.001) and more likely to have preserved systolic function (55.3% vs 40.9%, p <0.001), hypertension (83.1% vs 75.2%, p <0.001), and prior renal insufficiency (46.8% vs 34.6%, p <0.001). No significant differences existed between women and men with respect to crude rates of any readmission (144.7 vs 134.6 per 100 person-years, p = 0.36) or CHF-specific readmission (39.9 vs 37.4 per 100 person-years, p = 0.65). After adjusting for potential confounders, there was no significant difference between women and men with respect to risk of any readmission (adjusted hazard ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 1.02) or readmission for CHF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.11). Among a contemporary, diverse population of patients who had CHF, rates of readmission overall and for CHF remained high, but gender was not independently associated with a differential risk of readmission.

Nutritional strategy in the management of heart failure in adults

The incidence of congestive heart failure (CHF) is increasing in Westernized countries, and patients with CHF experience poor quality of life (functional impairment, high hospitalization rate and high mortality). Malnutrition occurring during the course of CHF is referred to as cardiac cachexia and is associated with higher mortality independent of the severity of CHF. Cardiac cachexia involving a loss of more than 10% of lean body mass can clinically be defined as a bodyweight loss of 7.5% of previous dry bodyweight in a period longer than 6 months. The energy requirements of patients with CHF, whether cachectic or not, are not noticeably modified since the increase in resting energy expenditure is compensated by a decrease in physical activity energy expenditure. Malnutrition in CHF has been ascribed to neurohormonal alterations, i.e. anabolic/catabolic imbalance and increased cytokine release. Anorexia may occur, particularly during acute decompensation of CHF. Function is impaired in CHF, because of exertional dyspnea and changes in skeletal muscle. Decreased exercise endurance seems to be related to decreased mitochondrial oxidative capacities and atrophy of type 1 fibers, which are attributed to alteration in muscle perfusion and are partially reversible by training. Malnutrition could also impair muscle function, because of decreased muscle mass and strength associated with decreased glycolytic capacities and atrophy of type 2a and 2b fibres. With respect to the putative mechanisms of cardiac cachexia, anabolic therapy (hormones or nutrients) and anticytokine therapy have been proposed, but trials are scarce and often inconclusive. In surgical patients with CHF, perioperative (pre- and postoperative) nutritional support has been shown to be effective in reducing the mortality rate. Long term nutritional supplementation trials in patients with CHF and cachexia are thus required to establish recommendations for the nutritional management of patients with CHF.

Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations

Background

The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI).

Methods

Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data); treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature); and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data).

Results

Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol) and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths.

Conclusion

In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services). Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare services.

Congestive cardiac failure: urban and rural perspectives in Victoria

OBJECTIVE

Effective and timely care for congestive cardiac failure (CCF) should reduce the risks of hospitalisation. The purpose of this study is to describe variations in rates of hospital admissions for CCF in Victoria as an indicator of the adequacy of primary care services. Detailed analyses identify trends in hospitalisations, urban/rural differentials and variations by the Primary Care Partnerships (PCP).

SETTING

Acute care hospitals in Victoria.

DESIGN

Routine analyses of age and sex standardised admission rates of CCF in Victoria using the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset from 1993-1994 to 2000-2001.

SUBJECTS

All patients admitted to acute care hospitals in Victoria with the principal diagnosis of CCF between 1993-1994 and 2000-2001.

RESULTS

There were 8359 admissions for CCF in Victoria with an average of 7.37 bed days in 2000-2001. There was a significantly higher admission rate for CCF in rural areas compared to metropolitan in 2000/200--(2.53/1000 (2.44-2.62) and 1.80/1000 (1.75-1.85))--respectively. Small area analyses identified 17 PCP (14 of which were rural) with significantly higher admission rate ratios of CCF compared to Victoria.

CONCLUSION

Small area analyses of CCF have identified significant gaps in the management of CCF in the community. This may be a reflection of deficit in primary care availability, accessibility, or appropriateness. Detailed studies may be needed to determine the relative importance of these factors in Victoria for targeting specific interventions at the PCP level.

Integrated, Collaborative Palliative Care in Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Chronic heart failure (HF) is the only heart condition increasing in prevalence and is primarily a condition of aging. This condition has outcomes worse than many cancers; however, patients are often denied the benefits of palliative care with its important emphasis on symptom management, spirituality, and emotional health and focus on family issues.

AIM

To describe the development of a model of an integrated, consultative, palliative care approach within a comprehensive HF community-focussed disease management program.

METHOD

A collaborative model was developed following a systematic needs assessment and documentation of local resources. Principles underpinning this model were based upon fostering of communication, consultancy, and skill development. Within this model a health care system, based upon universal coverage, supported co-management of patients and their families. The place of death, level of social support available at home, and degree of palliative care involvement was documented in 121 consecutive deaths from 1999-2002.

FINDINGS

Following a period of skill sharing and program development, only 8.3% of HF patients in the collaborative program required specialized palliative care intervention for complex symptom management, carer support, and issues related to spirituality. Twenty percent of this cohort died in nursing homes underscoring the importance of supporting our nursing colleagues in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

In spite of well-documented difficulties in determining prognosis, it is the St George experience that key principles of a palliative care strategy can be implemented in a HF disease management program with support and consultancy from expert palliative care services.

Factors Associated With Referral to Outpatient Cardiac Rehabilitation Services

BACKGROUND

Although practice guidelines and policy statements for cardiac rehabilitation recommend that it be offered to all patients with cardiovascular disease, the participation rates in most Western countries are low.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to determine the factors associated with referral to outpatient cardiac rehabilitation in the Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

The study sample comprised 1933 patients discharged from public hospitals in the Hunter region between March 1, 1998 and February 28, 1999 who were eligible for cardiac rehabilitation, and for inclusion on the Hunter Area Heart and Stroke Register (the Register). Data were obtained from the Register database (gender, age, clinical information) and via a self-completed questionnaire eliciting referral, sociodemographic, and cardiovascular disease risk factor information. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the factors independently associated with referral.

RESULTS

: Of the respondents (1202/1933), 41% (493/1202; 95% confidence interval, 38-44%) reported that they had been referred to outpatient cardiac rehabilitation. The factors independently associated with referral were age younger than 65 years, previous participation in an outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, admission to a hospital that provides outpatient cardiac rehabilitation, a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, and coronary artery bypass surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, previous participation in outpatient cardiac rehabilitation, admission to a hospital that provides outpatient cardiac rehabilitation, a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, and coronary artery bypass surgery were associated with referral to cardiac rehabilitation. Research testing strategies designed to increase cardiac rehabilitation referral rates are needed and could include testing the potential role of modern quality management methods.

Implementing guidelines in primary care: can population impact measures help?

BACKGROUND

Primary care organisations are faced with implementing a large number of guideline recommendations. We present methods by which the number of eligible patients requiring treatment, and the relative benefits to the whole population served by a general practice or Primary Care Trust, can be calculated to help prioritise between different guideline recommendations.

METHODS

We have developed measures of population impact, "Number to be Treated in your Population (NTP)" and "Number of Events Prevented in your Population (NEPP)". Using literature-based estimates, we have applied these measures to guidelines for pharmacological methods of secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) for a hypothetical general practice population of 10,000.

RESULTS

Implementation of the NICE guidelines for the secondary prevention of MI will require 176 patients to be treated with aspirin, 147 patients with beta-blockers and with ACE-Inhibitors and 157 patients with statins (NTP). The benefit expressed as NEPP will range from 1.91 to 2.96 deaths prevented per year for aspirin and statins respectively. The drug cost per year varies from euro 1940 for aspirin to euro 60,525 for statins. Assuming incremental changes only (for those not already on treatment), aspirin post MI will be added for 37 patients and produce 0.40 of a death prevented per year at a drug cost of euro 410 and statins will be added for 120 patients and prevent 2.26 deaths per year at a drug cost of euro 46,150. An appropriate policy might be to reserve the use of statins until eligible patients have been established on aspirin, ACE-Inhibitors and beta blockers.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of population impact measures could help the Primary Care Organisation to prioritise resource allocation, although the results will vary according to local conditions which should be taken into account before the measures are used in practice.

Impact numbers in health policy decisions

OBJECTIVE

To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making.

DESIGN

Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings.

SETTING

Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure.

MAIN RESULTS

The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers.

CONCLUSIONS

Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

A comparison of hospital readmission rates between two general physicians with different outpatient review practices

BACKGROUND

There has been a relentless increase in emergency medical admissions in the UK over recent years. Many of these patients suffer with chronic conditions requiring continuing medical attention. We wished to determine whether conventional outpatient clinic follow up after discharge has any impact on the rate of readmission to hospital.

METHODS

Two consultant general physicians with the same patient case-mix but markedly different outpatient follow-up practice were chosen. Of 1203 patients discharged, one consultant saw twice as many patients in the follow-up clinic than the other (Dr A 9.8% v Dr B 19.6%). The readmission rate in the twelve months following discharge was compared in a retrospective analysis of hospital activity data. Due to the specialisation of the admitting system, patients mainly had cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease or had taken an overdose. Few had respiratory or infectious diseases. Outpatient follow-up was focussed on patients with cardiac disease.

RESULTS

Risk of readmission increased significantly with age and length of stay of the original episode and was less for digestive system and musculo-skeletal disorders. 28.7% of patients discharged by Dr A and 31.5 % of those discharged by Dr B were readmitted at least once. Relative readmission risk was not significantly different between the consultants and there was no difference in the length of stay of readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing the proportion of patients with this age- and case-mix who are followed up in a hospital general medical outpatient clinic is unlikely to reduce the demand for acute hospital beds.