Multiple Machine Learnings Revealed Similar Predictive Accuracy for Prognosis of PNETs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Database

Machine learning model and nomogram to predict the risk of heart failure hospitalization in peritoneal dialysis patients

INTRODUCTION

The study presented here aimed to establish a predictive model for heart failure (HF) and all-cause mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients with machine learning (ML) algorithm.

METHODS

We retrospectively included 1006 patients who initiated PD from 2010 to 2016. XGBoost, random forest (RF), and AdaBoost were used to train models for assessing risk for 1-year and 5-year HF hospitalization and mortality. The performance was validated using fivefold cross-validation. The optimal ML algorithm was used to construct the models to predictive the risk of the HF and all-cause mortality. The prediction performance of ML methods and Cox regression was compared.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 49 months. Two hundred and ninety-eight patients developed HF required hospitalization; 199 patients died during the follow-up. The RF model (AUC = 0.853) was the best performing model for predicting HF, and the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.871) was the best model for predicting mortality. Baseline moderate or severe renal disease, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score were strongly associated with HF hospitalization, whereas age, CCI score, creatinine, age, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were the most significant predictors of mortality. For all the above endpoints, the ML models demonstrated better discrimination than Cox regression.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a novel method to predict the risk factors of HF and all-cause mortality that integrates readily available clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiographic variables to predict the risk of HF among PD patients.

Construction and validation of an endoscopic ultrasonography-based ultrasomics nomogram for differentiating pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors from pancreatic cancer

Objectives

To develop and validate various ultrasomics models based on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) for retrospective differentiating pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNET) from pancreatic cancer.

Methods

A total of 231 patients, comprising 127 with pancreatic cancer and 104 with PNET, were retrospectively enrolled. These patients were randomly divided into either a training or test cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Ultrasomics features were extracted from conventional EUS images, focusing on delineating the region of interest (ROI) for pancreatic lesions. Subsequently, dimensionality reduction of the ultrasomics features was performed by applying the Mann-Whitney test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm. Eight machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression (LR), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forest (RF), extra trees, k nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were employed to train prediction models using nonzero coefficient features. The optimal ultrasomics model was determined using a ROC curve and utilized for subsequent analysis. Clinical-ultrasonic features were assessed using both univariate and multivariate logistic regression. An ultrasomics nomogram model, integrating both ultrasomics and clinical-ultrasonic features, was developed.

Results

A total of 107 EUS-based ultrasomics features were extracted, and 6 features with nonzero coefficients were ultimately retained. Among the eight ultrasomics models based on machine learning algorithms, the RF model exhibited superior performance with an AUC= 0.999 (95% CI 0.9977 - 1.0000) in the training cohort and an AUC= 0.649 (95% CI 0.5215 - 0.7760) in the test cohort. A clinical-ultrasonic model was established and evaluated, yielding an AUC of 0.999 (95% CI 0.9961 - 1.0000) in the training cohort and 0.847 (95% CI 0.7543 - 0.9391) in the test cohort. Subsequently, the ultrasomics nomogram demonstrated a significant improvement in prediction accuracy in the test cohort, as evidenced by an AUC of 0.884 (95% CI 0.8047 - 0.9635) and confirmed by the Delong test. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) depicted this ultrasomics nomogram demonstrated superior accuracy. They also yielded the highest net benefit for clinical decision-making compared to alternative models.

Conclusions

A novel ultrasomics nomogram was proposed and validated, that integrated clinical-ultrasonic and ultrasomics features obtained through EUS, aiming to accurately and efficiently identify pancreatic cancer and PNET.

Machine Learning Predict Survivals of Spinal and Pelvic Ewing's Sarcoma with the SEER Database

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to develop survival prediction models for spinal Ewing's sarcoma (EWS) based on machine learning (ML).

METHODS

We extracted the SEER registry's clinical data of EWS diagnosed between 1975 and 2016. Three feature selection methods extracted clinical features. Four ML algorithms (Cox, random survival forest (RSF), CoxBoost, DeepCox) were trained to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of spinal EWS. The concordance index (C-index), integrated Brier score (IBS) and mean area under the curves (AUC) were used to assess the prediction performance of different ML models. The top initial ML models with best performance from each evaluation index (C-index, IBS and mean AUC) were finally stacked to ensemble models which were compared with the traditional TNM stage model by 3-/5-/10-year Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 741 patients with spinal EWS were identified. C-index, IBS and mean AUC for the final ensemble ML model in predicting OS were .693/0.158/0.829 during independent testing, while .719/0.171/0.819 in predicting CSS. The ensemble ML model also achieved an AUC of .705/0.747/0.851 for predicting 3-/5-/10-year OS during independent testing, while .734/0.779/0.830 for predicting 3-/5-/10-year CSS, both of which outperformed the traditional TNM stage. DCA curves also showed the advantages of the ensemble models over the traditional TNM stage.

CONCLUSION

ML was an effective and promising technique in predicting survival of spinal EWS, and the ensemble models were superior to the traditional TNM stage model.

Creation of a machine learning-based prognostic prediction model for various subtypes of laryngeal cancer

Depending on the source of the blastophore, there are various subtypes of laryngeal cancer, each with a unique metastatic risk and prognosis. The forecasting of their prognosis is a pressing issue that needs to be resolved. This study comprised 5953 patients with glottic carcinoma and 4465 individuals with non-glottic type (supraglottic and subglottic). Five clinicopathological characteristics of glottic and non-glottic carcinoma were screened using univariate and multivariate regression for CoxPH (Cox proportional hazards); for other models, 10 (glottic) and 11 (non-glottic) clinicopathological characteristics were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis, respectively; the corresponding survival models were established; and the best model was evaluated. We discovered that RSF (Random survival forest) was a superior model for both glottic and non-glottic carcinoma, with a projected concordance index (C-index) of 0.687 for glottic and 0.657 for non-glottic, respectively. The integrated Brier score (IBS) of their 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year time points is, respectively, 0.116, 0.182, 0.195 (glottic), and 0.130, 0.215, 0.220 (non-glottic), demonstrating the model's effective correction. We represented significant variables in a Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) plot. The two models are then combined to predict the prognosis for two distinct individuals, which has some effectiveness in predicting prognosis. For our investigation, we established separate models for glottic carcinoma and non-glottic carcinoma that were most effective at predicting survival. RSF is used to evaluate both glottic and non-glottic cancer, and it has a considerable impact on patient prognosis and risk factor prediction.

Development and Application of a Novel Machine Learning Model Predicting Pancreatic Cancer-Specific Mortality

Precise prognostication is vital for guiding treatment decisions in people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Existing models depend on predetermined variables, constraining their effectiveness. Our objective was to explore a novel machine learning approach to enhance a prognostic model for predicting pancreatic cancer-specific mortality and, subsequently, to assess its performance against Cox regression models. Datasets were retrospectively collected and analyzed for 9,752 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and with surgery performed. The primary outcomes were the mortality of patients with pancreatic carcinoma at one year, three years, and five years. Model discrimination was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), and calibration was assessed using Brier scores. The Survival Quilts model was compared with Cox regression models in clinical use, and decision curve analysis was done. The Survival Quilts model demonstrated robust discrimination for one-year (C-index 0.729), three-year (C-index 0.693), and five-year (C-index 0.672) pancreatic cancer-specific mortality. In comparison to Cox models, the Survival Quilts models exhibited a higher C-index up to 32 months but displayed inferior performance after 33 months. A subgroup analysis was conducted, revealing that within the subset of individuals without metastasis, the Survival Quilts models showcased a significant advantage over the Cox models. In the cohort with metastatic pancreatic cancer, Survival Quilts outperformed the Cox model before 24 months but exhibited a weaker performance after 25 months. This study has developed and validated a novel machine learning-based Survival Quilts model to predict pancreatic cancer-specific mortality that outperforms the Cox regression model.

New perspectives on cancer clinical research in the era of big data and machine learning

In the 21st century, the development of medical science has entered the era of big data, and machine learning has become an essential tool for mining medical big data. The establishment of the SEER database has provided a wealth of epidemiological data for cancer clinical research, and the number of studies based on SEER and machine learning has been growing in recent years. This article reviews recent research based on SEER and machine learning and finds that the current focus of such studies is primarily on the development and validation of models using machine learning algorithms, with the main directions being lymph node metastasis prediction, distant metastasis prediction, and prognosis-related research. Compared to traditional models, machine learning algorithms have the advantage of stronger adaptability, but also suffer from disadvantages such as overfitting and poor interpretability, which need to be weighed in practical applications. At present, machine learning algorithms, as the foundation of artificial intelligence, have just begun to emerge in the field of cancer clinical research. The future development of oncology will enter a more precise era of cancer research, characterized by larger data, higher dimensions, and more frequent information exchange. Machine learning is bound to shine brightly in this field.

Prognostic Assessment of Gastropancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasm: Prospects and Limits of Radiomics

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are a group of lesions originating from cells of the diffuse neuroendocrine system. NENs may involve different sites, including the gastrointestinal tract (GEP-NENs). The incidence and prevalence of GEP-NENs has been constantly rising thanks to the increased diagnostic power of imaging and immuno-histochemistry. Despite the plethora of biochemical markers and imaging techniques, the prognosis and therapeutic choice in GEP-NENs still represents a challenge, mainly due to the great heterogeneity in terms of tumor lesions and clinical behavior. The concept that biomedical images contain information about tissue heterogeneity and pathological processes invisible to the human eye is now well established. From this substrate comes the idea of radiomics. Computational analysis has achieved promising results in several oncological settings, and the use of radiomics in different types of GEP-NENs is growing in the field of research, yet with conflicting results. The aim of this narrative review is to provide a comprehensive update on the role of radiomics on GEP-NEN management, focusing on the main clinical aspects analyzed by most existing reports: predicting tumor grade, distinguishing NET from other tumors, and prognosis assessment.

Machine learning-based model for prediction and feature analysis of recurrence in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors G1/G2

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (PanNENs) are a heterogeneous group of tumors. Although the prognosis of resected PanNENs is generally considered to be good, a relatively high recurrence rate has been reported. Given the scarcity of large-scale reports about PanNEN recurrence due to their rarity, we aimed to identify the predictors for recurrence in patients with resected PanNENs to improve prognosis.

METHODS

We established a multicenter database of 573 patients with PanNENs, who underwent resection between January 1987 and July 2020 at 22 Japanese centers, mainly in the Kyushu region. We evaluated the clinical characteristics of 371 patients with localized non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (G1/G2). We also constructed a machine learning-based prediction model to analyze the important features to determine recurrence.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients experienced recurrence (14.0%) during the follow-up period, with the median time of recurrence being 33.7 months. The random survival forest (RSF) model showed better predictive performance than the Cox proportional hazards regression model in terms of the Harrell's C-index (0.841 vs. 0.820). The Ki-67 index, residual tumor, WHO grade, tumor size, and lymph node metastasis were the top five predictors in the RSF model; tumor size above 20 mm was the watershed with increased recurrence probability, whereas the 5-year disease-free survival rate decreased linearly as the Ki-67 index increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed the characteristics of resected PanNENs in real-world clinical practice. Machine learning techniques can be powerful analytical tools that provide new insights into the relationship between the Ki-67 index or tumor size and recurrence.

A 5‐year survival status prognosis of nonmetastatic cervical cancer patients through machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND

Prediction models with high accuracy rates for nonmetastatic cervical cancer (CC) patients are limited. This study aimed to construct and compare predictive models on the basis of machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting the 5-year survival status of CC patients through using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results public database of the National Cancer Institute.

METHODS

The data registered from 2004 to 2016 were extracted and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (8:2). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was employed to identify significant factors. Then, four predictive models were constructed, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The predictive models were evaluated and compared using Receiver-operating characteristics with areas under the curves (AUCs) and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 13,802 patients were involved and classified into training (N = 11,041) and validation (N = 2761) cohorts. By using the LASSO regression method, seven factors were identified. In the training cohort, the XGBoost model showed the best performance (AUC = 0.8400) compared to the other three models (all p < 0.05 by Delong's test). In the validation cohort, the XGBoost model also demonstrated a superior prediction ability (AUC = 0.8365) than LR and SVM models (both p < 0.05 by Delong's test), although the difference was not statistically significant between the XGBoost and the RF models (p = 0.4251 by Delong's test). Based on the DCA results, the XGBoost model was also superior, and feature importance analysis indicated that the tumor stage was the most important variable among the seven factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The XGBoost model proved to be an effective algorithm with better prediction abilities. This model is proposed to support better decision-making for nonmetastatic CC patients in the future.

Sex-Based Clinicopathologic and Survival Differences Among Patients with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

INTRODUCTION

Sex-based differences in survival have emerged among patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). Mechanisms driving these differences remain poorly understood. We aimed to further characterize sex-based clinicopathologic and survival differences among patients with PNETs and correlate divergent mutational signatures in these patients.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was queried for PNET patients diagnosed 2004-2017 who underwent surgery. Clinicopathologic features were analyzed by sex. The overall survival (OS) of men and women by disease stage was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. Differences in PNET mutational signatures were analyzed by querying the American Association for Cancer Research Genomics Evidence Neoplasia Information (AACR-GENIE) Cohort v11.0-public. Frequencies of mutational signatures were compared by Fischer's exact (FE) test, adjusting for multiple testing via the Benjamini-Hochberg correction.

RESULTS

About 15,202 patients met inclusion criteria from the NCDB; 51.9% were men and 48.1% were women. Men more frequently had tumors > 2 cm than women and more commonly had poorly or undifferentiated tumors. Despite this, lymph node positivity and distant metastases were similar. Differences in OS were only seen among those with early stage rather than stage 3 or 4 disease. MEN1 and DAXX mutations were more frequent among men with PNETs, whereas TP53 mutations were more frequent among women when assessed by FE test. However, neither of these mutational differences maintained statistical significance when adjusted for multiple testing.

CONCLUSION

Compared to women, men have larger tumors but similar rates of distant metastases at time of surgery. OS differences appear to be driven by patients with early-stage disease without clearly identifiable differences in mutational signatures between the sexes.

The prognostic value of machine learning techniques versus cox regression model for head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND

Accurate prognostic prediction for head and neck cancer (HNC) is important for the improvement of clinical management. We aimed to compare the prognostic value of various machine learning techniques (MLTs) and statistical Cox regression model for different types of HNC.

METHODS

Clinical data of HNC patients were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1974 to 2016. The prediction performance of five ML models, including random forest (RF), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN) and deep learning (DL), were compared with the statistical Cox regression model by estimating the concordance index (C-index), integrated Brier score (IBS), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Our results showed that the RF model outperformed all other models in prognostic prediction for all tumor sites of HNC, particularly for major salivary gland cancer (MSGC, C-index: 88.730 ± 0.8700, IBS: 7.680 ± 0.4800), oral cavity cancer (OCC, C-index: 84.250 ± 0.6700, IBS: 11.480 ± 0.3300) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC, C-index: 82.510 ± 0.5400, IBS: 10.120 ± 0.1400). Meanwhile, we analyzed the importance of each clinical variable in the RF model, in which age and tumor size presented the strongest positive prognostic effects. Additionally, similar results can be observed in the internal (6th edition of the AJCC TNM staging system cohort) and external validations (the TCGA HNC cohort).

CONCLUSIONS

The RF model is a promising prognostic prediction tool for HNC patients, regardless of the anatomic subsites.

A 70‑RNA model based on SVR and RFE for predicting the pancreatic cancer clinical prognosis

Researches on the prognosis of pancreatic cancer is of great significance to improve the patient treatment effect and survival. Current researches mainly focus on the prediction of the survival status and the determination of prognostic markers. Each patient has its own characteristics, there is no report about the prediction of survival time. However, accurate prediction of survival time is critical for personalized medicine. In this paper, a hybrid algorithm of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) was used to construct a quantitative prediction model of Overall Survival (OS) for pancreatic cancer patients, 70 RNAs related to OS were determined, including 33 mRNAs, 28 lncRNAs, and 9 miRNAs. The results of 10-fold cross-validation (R2 is 0.9693) and the generalization ability (R2 is 0.9666) showed that the model has reliable predictive performance and these 70 RNAs are important factors influencing the OS of pancreatic cancer patients. To further study the relationship between RNA-RNA interaction and the survival, competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) regulation network was constructed. Degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality of nodes in the ceRNA network showed that hsa-mir-570, hsa-mir-944, hsa-mir-6506, hsa-mir-3136, MMP16, PLGLB2, HPGD, FUT1, MFSD2A, SULT1E1, SLC13A5, ZNF488, F2RL2, TNFRSF8, TNFSF11, FHDC1, ISLR2 and THSD7B are hub nodes, which are key RNAs closely determining the OS of pancreatic cancer patients.

Recent advancement in cancer diagnosis using machine learning and deep learning techniques: A comprehensive review

Being a second most cause of mortality worldwide, cancer has been identified as a perilous disease for human beings, where advance stage diagnosis may not help much in safeguarding patients from mortality. Thus, efforts to provide a sustainable architecture with proven cancer prevention estimate and provision for early diagnosis of cancer is the need of hours. Advent of machine learning methods enriched cancer diagnosis area with its overwhelmed efficiency & low error-rate then humans. A significant revolution has been witnessed in the development of machine learning & deep learning assisted system for segmentation & classification of various cancers during past decade. This research paper includes a review of various types of cancer detection via different data modalities using machine learning & deep learning-based methods along with different feature extraction techniques and benchmark datasets utilized in the recent six years studies. The focus of this study is to review, analyse, classify, and address the recent development in cancer detection and diagnosis of six types of cancers i.e., breast, lung, liver, skin, brain and pancreatic cancer, using machine learning & deep learning techniques. Various state-of-the-art technique are clustered into same group and results are examined through key performance indicators like accuracy, area under the curve, precision, sensitivity, dice score on benchmark datasets and concluded with future research work challenges.

A novel deep learning prognostic system improves survival predictions for stage III non-small cell lung cancer

Background

Accurate prognostic prediction plays a crucial role in the clinical setting. However, the TNM staging system fails to provide satisfactory individual survival prediction for stage III non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The performance of the deep learning network for survival prediction in stage III NSCLC has not been explored.

Objectives

This study aimed to develop a deep learning‐based prognostic system that could achieve better predictive performance than the existing staging system for stage III NSCLC.

Methods

In this study, a deep survival learning model (DSLM) for stage III NSCLC was developed based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and was independently tested with another external cohort from our institute. DSLM was compared with the Cox proportional hazard (CPH) and random survival forest (RSF) models. A new prognostic system for stage III NSCLC was also proposed based on the established deep learning model.

Results

The study included 16,613 patients with stage III NSCLC from the SEER database. DSLM showed the best performance in survival prediction, with a C‐index of 0.725 in the validation set, followed by RSF (0.688) and CPH (0.683). DSLM also showed C‐indices of 0.719 and 0.665 in the internal and real‐world external testing datasets, respectively. In addition, the new prognostic system based on DSLM (AUROC = 0.744) showed better performance than the TNM staging system (AUROC = 0.561).

Conclusion

In this study, a new, integrated deep learning‐based prognostic model was developed and evaluated for stage III NSCLC. This novel approach may be valuable in improving patient stratification and potentially provide meaningful prognostic information that contributes to personalized therapy.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Diagnosis and Management of Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms—A Scoping Review

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) and tumors (NETs) are rare neoplasms that may affect any part of the gastrointestinal system. In this scoping review, we attempt to map existing evidence on the role of artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning in the diagnosis and management of NENs of the gastrointestinal system. After implementation of inclusion and exclusion criteria, we retrieved 44 studies with 53 outcome analyses. We then classified the papers according to the type of studied NET (26 Pan-NETs, 59.1%; 3 metastatic liver NETs (6.8%), 2 small intestinal NETs, 4.5%; colorectal, rectal, non-specified gastroenteropancreatic and non-specified gastrointestinal NETs had from 1 study each, 2.3%). The most frequently used AI algorithms were Supporting Vector Classification/Machine (14 analyses, 29.8%), Convolutional Neural Network and Random Forest (10 analyses each, 21.3%), Random Forest (9 analyses, 19.1%), Logistic Regression (8 analyses, 17.0%), and Decision Tree (6 analyses, 12.8%). There was high heterogeneity on the description of the prediction model, structure of datasets, and performance metrics, whereas the majority of studies did not report any external validation set. Future studies should aim at incorporating a uniform structure in accordance with existing guidelines for purposes of reproducibility and research quality, which are prerequisites for integration into clinical practice.

Machine intelligence in non-invasive endocrine cancer diagnostics

Artificial intelligence (AI) has illuminated a clear path towards an evolving health-care system replete with enhanced precision and computing capabilities. Medical imaging analysis can be strengthened by machine learning as the multidimensional data generated by imaging naturally lends itself to hierarchical classification. In this Review, we describe the role of machine intelligence in image-based endocrine cancer diagnostics. We first provide a brief overview of AI and consider its intuitive incorporation into the clinical workflow. We then discuss how AI can be applied for the characterization of adrenal, pancreatic, pituitary and thyroid masses in order to support clinicians in their diagnostic interpretations. This Review also puts forth a number of key evaluation criteria for machine learning in medicine that physicians can use in their appraisals of these algorithms. We identify mitigation strategies to address ongoing challenges around data availability and model interpretability in the context of endocrine cancer diagnosis. Finally, we delve into frontiers in systems integration for AI, discussing automated pipelines and evolving computing platforms that leverage distributed, decentralized and quantum techniques.

Predicting Survival of Patients With Rectal Neuroendocrine Tumors Using Machine Learning: A SEER-Based Population Study

Background: The number of patients diagnosed with rectal neuroendocrine tumors (R-NETs) is increasing year by year. An integrated survival predictive model is required to predict the prognosis of R-NETs. The present study is aimed at exploring epidemiological characteristics of R-NETs based on a retrospective study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and predicting survival of R-NETs with machine learning.

Methods: Data of patients with R-NETs were extracted from the SEER database (2000–2017), and data were also retrospectively collected from a single medical center in China. The main outcome measure was the 5-year survival status. Risk factors affecting survival were analyzed by Cox regression analysis, and six common machine learning algorithms were chosen to build the predictive models. Data from the SEER database were divided into a training set and an internal validation set according to the year 2010 as a time point. Data from China were chosen as an external validation set. The best machine learning predictive model was compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) seventh staging system to evaluate its predictive performance in the internal validation dataset and external validation dataset.

Results: A total of 10,580 patients from the SEER database and 68 patients from a single medical center were included in the analysis. Age, gender, race, histologic type, tumor size, tumor number, summary stage, and surgical treatment were risk factors affecting survival status. After the adjustment of parameters and algorithms comparison, the predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm had the best predictive performance in the training set [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.86–0.88]. In the internal validation, the predictive ability of XGBoost was better than that of the AJCC seventh staging system (AUC: 0.90 vs. 0.78). In the external validation, the XGBoost predictive model (AUC = 0.89) performed better than the AJCC seventh staging system (AUC = 0.83).

Conclusions: The XGBoost algorithm had better predictive power than the AJCC seventh staging system, which had a potential value of the clinical application.

Ultrasound Images Guided under Deep Learning in the Anesthesia Effect of the Regional Nerve Block on Scapular Fracture Surgery

In order to discuss the clinical characteristics of patients with scapular fracture, deep learning model was adopted in ultrasound images of patients to locate the anesthesia point of patients during scapular fracture surgery treated with the regional nerve block. 100 patients with scapular fracture who were hospitalized for emergency treatment in the hospital were recruited. Patients in the algorithm group used ultrasound-guided regional nerve block puncture, and patients in the control group used traditional body surface anatomy for anesthesia positioning. The ultrasound images of the scapula of the contrast group were used for the identification of the deep learning model and analysis of anesthesia acupuncture sites. The ultrasound images of the scapula anatomy of the patients in the contrast group were extracted, and the convolutional neural network model was employed for training and test. Moreover, the model performance was evaluated. It was found that the adoption of deep learning greatly improved the accuracy of the image. It took an average of 7.5 ± 2.07 minutes from the time the puncture needle touched the skin to the completion of the injection in the algorithm group (treated with artificial intelligence ultrasound positioning). The operation time of the control group (anatomical positioning) averaged 10.2 ± 2.62 min. Moreover, there was a significant difference between the two groups (p < 0.05). The method adopted in the contrast group had high positioning accuracy and good anesthesia effect, and the patients had reduced postoperative complications of patients (all P < 0.005). The deep learning model can effectively improve the accuracy of ultrasound images and measure and assist the treatment of future clinical cases of scapular fractures. While improving medical efficiency, it can also accurately identify patient fractures, which has great adoption potential in improving the effect of surgical anesthesia.

A Machine Learning-Based Investigation of Gender-Specific Prognosis of Lung Cancers

Background and Objective: Primary lung cancer is a lethal and rapidly-developing cancer type and is one of the most leading causes of cancer deaths. Materials and Methods: Statistical methods such as Cox regression are usually used to detect the prognosis factors of a disease. This study investigated survival prediction using machine learning algorithms. The clinical data of 28,458 patients with primary lung cancers were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Results: This study indicated that the survival rate of women with primary lung cancer was often higher than that of men (p < 0.001). Seven popular machine learning algorithms were utilized to evaluate one-year, three-year, and five-year survival prediction The two classifiers extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and logistic regression (LR) achieved the best prediction accuracies. The importance variable of the trained XGB models suggested that surgical removal (feature “Surgery”) made the largest contribution to the one-year survival prediction models, while the metastatic status (feature “N” stage) of the regional lymph nodes was the most important contributor to three-year and five-year survival prediction. The female patients’ three-year prognosis model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.8297 on the independent future samples, while the male model only achieved the accuracy 0.7329. Conclusions: This data suggested that male patients may have more complicated factors in lung cancer than females, and it is necessary to develop gender-specific diagnosis and prognosis models.

Epidemiologic trends and prognostic risk factors of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms in the US: an updated population-based study

Background: We aimed to evaluate the incidence, mortality and survival outcome for patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (pNEN). Methods: Patients with pNEN were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Incidence, mortality and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using SEER stat 8.3.6 and Joinpoint software. Survival outcome was estimated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model. Results: During 2000-2016, the incidence of pNEN significantly rose from 0.2647 to 1.0618 per 100,000 persons with an AAPC of 9.4; AAPC of mortality was 6.7. Prognostic improvement was revealed in 2010-2016, but not for late-stage pNEN, which had the highest risk of death. Conclusion: Efforts to improve prognosis of pNEN patients must focus on not only early detection, but also on improving therapy for late-stage disease.

Predicting long-term multicategory cause of death in patients with prostate cancer: random forest versus multinomial model

The majority of patients with prostate cancer die of non-cancer causes of death (COD). It is thus important to accurately predict multi-category COD in these patients. Random forest (RF), a popular machine learning model, has been shown useful for predicting binary cancer-specific deaths. However, its accuracy for predicting multi-category COD in cancer patients is unclear. We included patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 cancer registry-program with prostate cancer diagnosed in 2004 (followed-up through 2016). They were randomly divided into training and testing sets with equal sizes. We evaluated prediction accuracies of RF and conventional statistical/multinomial models for 6-category COD by data-encoding types using the 2-fold cross-validation approach. Among 49,864 prostate cancer patients, 29,611 (59.4%) were alive at the end of follow-up, and 5,448 (10.9%) died of cardiovascular disease, 4,607 (9.2%) of prostate cancer, 3,681 (7.4%) of non-prostate cancer, 717 (1.4%) of infection, and 5,800 (11.6%) of other causes. We predicted 6-category COD among these patients with a mean accuracy of 59.1% (n=240, 95% CI, 58.7%-59.4%) in RF models with one-hot encoding, and 50.4% (95% CI, 49.7%-51.0%) in multinomial models. Tumor characteristics, prostate-specific antigen level, and diagnosis confirmation-method were important in RF and multinomial models. In RF models, no statistical differences were found between the accuracies of training versus cross-validation phases, and those of categorical versus one-hot encoding. We here report that RF models can outperform multinomial logistic models (absolute accuracy-difference, 8.7%) in predicting long-term 6-category COD among prostate cancer patients, while pathology diagnosis itself and tumor pathology remain important factors.

Identification of predictive factors in hepatocellular carcinoma outcome: A longitudinal study

Various surgical methods impact the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differently. However, clinical guidelines remain inconsistent and the relative importance of predictors of survival outcomes requires further evaluation. The present study aimed to rank the importance of predictive factors that impact the survival outcomes of patients with HCC and to compare the prognosis associated with different surgical methods based on data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. To achieve these aims, the present study used a random forest (RF) model to detect important predictive factors associated with survival outcomes in patients with HCC. Cox regression analysis was used to compare different surgery methods. The variables included in the Cox regression model were selected based on the Gini index calculated by the RF model. Using the RF model, the present study demonstrated that surgery method, tumor size and age were the first, second and third most important factors associated with HCC prognosis, respectively. Overall, patients who underwent local tumor destruction [(hazard ratio (HR)=0.48; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45–0.51; P<0.001)], wedge or segmental resection (HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.29–0.33; P<0.001), lobectomy (HR, 0.29, 95% CI, 0.27–0.31; P<0.001) or liver transplantation (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.14–0.17; P<0.001) demonstrated improved overall survival time compared with those treated with surgery, with a gradual decreasing trend observed in HRs. The present study demonstrated that the surgical method used is the most important predictor of the survival outcomes of patients with HCC. Liver transplantation resulted in the best prognosis for patients with HCC, except for those with undifferentiated tumors or distant metastasis.

A Deep Learning Approach for Missing Data Imputation of Rating Scales Assessing Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

A variety of tools and methods have been used to measure behavioral symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Missing data is a major concern in ADHD behavioral studies. This study used a deep learning method to impute missing data in ADHD rating scales and evaluated the ability of the imputed dataset (i.e., the imputed data replacing the original missing values) to distinguish youths with ADHD from youths without ADHD. The data were collected from 1220 youths, 799 of whom had an ADHD diagnosis, and 421 were typically developing (TD) youths without ADHD, recruited in Northern Taiwan. Participants were assessed using the Conners' Continuous Performance Test, the Chinese versions of the Conners' rating scale-revised: short form for parent and teacher reports, and the Swanson, Nolan, and Pelham, version IV scale for parent and teacher reports. We used deep learning, with information from the original complete dataset (referred to as the reference dataset), to perform missing data imputation and generate an imputation order according to the imputed accuracy of each question. We evaluated the effectiveness of imputation using support vector machine to classify the ADHD and TD groups in the imputed dataset. The imputed dataset can classify ADHD vs. TD up to 89% accuracy, which did not differ from the classification accuracy (89%) using the reference dataset. Most of the behaviors related to oppositional behaviors rated by teachers and hyperactivity/impulsivity rated by both parents and teachers showed high discriminatory accuracy to distinguish ADHD from non-ADHD. Our findings support a deep learning solution for missing data imputation without introducing bias to the data.

Artificial intelligence in cancer diagnosis and prognosis: Opportunities and challenges

Cancer is an aggressive disease with a low median survival rate. Ironically, the treatment process is long and very costly due to its high recurrence and mortality rates. Accurate early diagnosis and prognosis prediction of cancer are essential to enhance the patient's survival rate. Developments in statistics and computer engineering over the years have encouraged many scientists to apply computational methods such as multivariate statistical analysis to analyze the prognosis of the disease, and the accuracy of such analyses is significantly higher than that of empirical predictions. Furthermore, as artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine learning and deep learning, has found popular applications in clinical cancer research in recent years, cancer prediction performance has reached new heights. This article reviews the literature on the application of AI to cancer diagnosis and prognosis, and summarizes its advantages. We explore how AI assists cancer diagnosis and prognosis, specifically with regard to its unprecedented accuracy, which is even higher than that of general statistical applications in oncology. We also demonstrate ways in which these methods are advancing the field. Finally, opportunities and challenges in the clinical implementation of AI are discussed. Hence, this article provides a new perspective on how AI technology can help improve cancer diagnosis and prognosis, and continue improving human health in the future.

Prognostic and predictive factors on overall survival and surgical outcomes in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: recent advances and controversies

Introduction: Recent advances in diagnostic modalities and therapeutic agents have raised the importance of prognostic factors in predicting overall survival, as well as predictive factors for surgical outcomes, in tailoring therapeutic strategies of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (panNENs).Areas covered: Numerous recent studies of panNEN patients report the prognostic values of a number of clinically related factors (clinical, laboratory, imaging, treatment-related factors), pathological factors (histological, classification, grading) and molecular factors on long-term survival. In addition, an increasing number of studies showed the usefulness of various factors, specifically biomarkers and molecular makers, in predicting recurrence and mortality related to surgical treatment. Recent findings (from the last 3 years) in each of these areas, as well as recent controversies, are reviewed.Expert commentary: The clinical importance of prognostic and predictive factors for panNENs is markedly increased for both overall outcome and post resection, as a result of recent advances in all aspects of the diagnosis, management and treatment of panNENs. Despite the proven prognostic utility of routinely used tumor grading/classification and staging systems, further studies are required to establish these novel prognostic factors to support their routine clinical use.