Evidence for localised HIV related micro-epidemics associated with the decentralised provision of antiretroviral treatment in rural South Africa: a spatio-temporal analysis of changing mortality patterns (2007-2010)

Biomedical bargains: Negotiating "safe sex" on antiretroviral treatment in rural South Africa

Wide-scale availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART) has transformed the global landscape for HIV prevention, shifting emphasis away from a strictly behavioral focus on changing sexual practices towards a biomedical approach. Successful ART management is measured by an undetectable viral load, which helps maintain overall health and prevent onward viral transmission. The latter utility of ART, however, must be understood in the context of its implementation. In South Africa, ART has become easily accessible - yet ART knowledge spreads unevenly, while counseling advice and normative expectations and experiences of gender and aging interact to inform sexual practices. As ART enters the sexual lives of middle-aged and older people living with HIV (MOPLH), a population growing rapidly, how has it informed sexual decisions and negotiations? Drawing on in-depth interviews with MOPLH on ART, corroborated with focus group discussions and national ART-related policies and guidelines, we find that for MOPLH, sexual decisions increasingly feature compliance with biomedical directives and concern for ART efficacy. Seeking consensus regarding the biological risks of sex on ART becomes an important feature of sexual negotiations, and anticipated disagreements can pre-empt sexual relationships altogether. We introduce the concept of biomedical bargains to explain what happens when disagreements arise, and the terms of sex are negotiated using competing interpretations of biomedical information. For both men and women, ostensibly gender-neutral biomedical discourses provide new discursive resources and strategies for sexual decisions and negotiations, yet biomedical bargains are still embedded in gender dynamics-women invoke the dangers of jeopardizing treatment efficacy and longevity to insist on condoms or justify abstinence, while men utilize biomedical arguments in an effort to render condomless sex safe. While the full therapeutic benefits of ART are critical for the efficacy and equity of HIV programs, they will nonetheless always affect, and be affected by, social life.

'Sometimes it is not about men': Gendered and generational discourses of caregiving HIV transmission in a rural South African setting

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we examine a prominent interpretation of HIV risk in a rural South African setting experiencing a severe HIV epidemic well into older ages: the discourse of caregiving HIV transmission. By caregiving transmission, we refer to HIV infection resulting from caring for family members who are living with HIV and may be sick with AIDS-related illnesses. We draw on individual life history and community focus group interviews with men and women aged 40-80+, as well as interviews with health workers providing HIV counselling and testing services at local health facilities in their communities. We illustrate the social and strategic role caregiving HIV transmission discourses play in re-signifying HIV as a sexless infection for older women, thereby promoting HIV testing as well as blameless acceptance of an HIV diagnosis. We further highlight the role of rural health workers who serve as medical epistemic bricoleurs, vernacularising global HIV counselling and prevention messages by blending ideas of gender, generation, and local lived experiences and practices so that they resonate with community norms, values and understandings. Our study highlights the gendered and generational complexities and challenges experienced by rural South Africans aging in a community over-burdened by an HIV epidemic and AIDS-related mortality.

Spatial analysis of the AIDS mortality rate among young people in a province of the Brazilian Amazon: An ecological study

Worldwide, policies to combat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have led to a small decrease in the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality rate among young people. For greater policy efficacy, it is necessary to determine the influence of social determinants of health (SDHs) in each territory. The objective of this study was to spatially analyse the AIDS mortality rate among young people in a province of the Brazilian Amazon and the spatial variability of the rate promoted by SDHs. All reports of AIDS deaths between 2007 and 2018 among young people living in the state of Pará were included in the study. The mortality rate was analysed using spatial distribution and autocorrelation, spatial scanning, and geographically weighted regression (GWR). During the study period, there were 1,372 deaths from AIDS among young people with a territorial expansion. The spatial autocorrelation showed two high-high clusters in the period from 2007 to 2010, one formed by municipalities in south-eastern Pará and one in the metropolitan region of Belém, with only the latter remaining between 2011 and 2018. This region showed a higher spatial risk for AIDS mortality and was the only cluster with spatiotemporal risk in the 2013-2018 period. Spatial variability was promoted by the i) the youth homicide rate, ii) the elementary school dropout rate and iii) the number of families registered in the Unified Registry for Social Programs (CadÚnico). This study provides support for the implementation of effective focal policies to combat HIV and reduce the mortality rate among young people in Pará.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality.

METHODS

Data come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

RESULTS

During the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population. PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

The end of AIDS? HIV and the new landscape of illness in rural South Africa

The global HIV/AIDS scientific community has begun to hail the dawn of 'the End of AIDS' with widespread anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and dramatic declines in AIDS-related mortality. Drawing on community focus groups and in-depth individual interviews conducted in rural South Africa, we examine the complex unfolding of the end of AIDS in a hard-hit setting. We find that while widespread ART has led to declines in AIDS-related deaths, stigma persists and is now freshly motivated. We argue that the shifting landscape of illness in the community has produced a new interpretive lens through which to view living with HIV and dying from AIDS. Most adults have one or more chronic illnesses, and ART-managed HIV is now considered a preferred diagnosis because it is seen as easier to manage, more responsive to medication, and less dangerous compared to diseases like cancer, hypertension, and diabetes. Viewed through this comparative lens, dying from AIDS elicits stigmatising individual blame. We find that blame persists despite community acknowledgement of structural barriers to ART adherence. Setting the ending of AIDS within its wider health context sheds light on the complexities of the epidemiological and health transitions underway in much of the developing world.

"A NOWADAYS DISEASE": HIV/AIDS AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN A RURAL SOUTH AFRICAN COMMUNITY

Why do some people adapt successfully to change while others do not? We examine this question in the context of a severe HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, where adapting (or not) to social change has borne life and death consequences. Applying an age-period-cohort lens to the analysis of qualitative life history interviews among middle-aged and older adults, we consider the role of the life course and gendered sexuality in informing Africans' strategies of action, or inaction, and in differentially driving and stalling change in each cohort in response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Our study illuminates the unique challenges of adapting to social change that result from dynamic interactions among aging, prevailing social structures, and a cohort's socio-historical orientation to a new period.

From "Secret" to "Sensitive Issue": Shifting Ideas About HIV Disclosure Among Middle-Aged and Older Rural South Africans in the Era of Antiretroviral Treatment

OBJECTIVE

As HIV shifts from "death sentence" to "chronic condition," disclosure of HIV status to intimate partners and family is a significant component of both prevention and treatment adherence. While disclosure is closely considered in many studies, few examine middle-aged and older persons' (age 40+) perspectives or practices. We trace older rural South Africans' views on HIV disclosure to their partners and family members in a high prevalence community over a period of extensive antiretroviral treatment (ART) rollout.

METHODS

Community focus group discussions (FGD) conducted in 2013 and 2018 show shifts in older persons' thinking about HIV disclosure.

FINDINGS

Our FGD participants saw fewer negative consequences of disclosure in 2018 than in 2013, and highlighted positive outcomes including building trust (partners) as well as greater support for medication collection and adherence (family).

DISCUSSION

Particularly as the epidemic ages in South Africa and globally, tracing changes in older persons' views on disclosure is an important step in developing messaging that could enhance treatment as prevention and ART adherence.

Clusters of HIV Risk and Protective Sexual Behaviors in Agincourt, Rural South Africa: Findings from the Ha Nakekela Population-Based Study of Ages 15 and Older

Understanding how sexual behaviors cluster in distinct population subgroups along the life course is critical for effective targeting and tailoring of HIV prevention messaging and intervention activities. We examined interrelatedness of sexual behaviors and variation between men and women across a wide age range in a rural South African setting with a high HIV burden. Data come from the Ha Nakekela population-based survey of people aged 15-85-plus drawn from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. We used latent class analysis of six sexual behavior indicators to identify distinct subgroup sexual behavior clusters. We then examined associations between class membership and sociodemographic and other behavioral risk factors and assessed the accuracy of a reduced set of sexual behavior indicators to classify individuals into latent classes. We identified three sexual behavior classes: (1) single with consistent protective behaviors; (2) risky behaviors; and (3) in union with lack of protective behaviors. Patterns of sexual behaviors varied by gender. Class membership was also associated with age, HIV status, nationality, and alcohol use. With only two sexual behavior indicators (union status and multiple sexual partners), individuals were accurately assigned to their most likely predicted class. There were distinct multidimensional sexual behavior clusters in population subgroups that varied by sex, age, and HIV status. In this population, only two brief questions were needed to classify individuals into risk classes. Replication in other situations is needed to confirm these findings.

Geographic Information Systems, spatial analysis, and HIV in Africa: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis are emerging tools for global health, but it is unclear to what extent they have been applied to HIV research in Africa. To help inform researchers and program implementers, this scoping review documents the range and depth of published HIV-related GIS and spatial analysis research studies conducted in Africa.

METHODS

A systematic literature search for articles related to GIS and spatial analysis was conducted through PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases. Using pre-specified inclusion criteria, articles were screened and key data were abstracted. Grounded, inductive analysis was conducted to organize studies into meaningful thematic areas.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The search returned 773 unique articles, of which 65 were included in the final review. 15 different countries were represented. Over half of the included studies were published after 2014. Articles were categorized into the following non-mutually exclusive themes: (a) HIV geography, (b) HIV risk factors, and (c) HIV service implementation. Studies demonstrated a broad range of GIS and spatial analysis applications including characterizing geographic distribution of HIV, evaluating risk factors for HIV, and assessing and improving access to HIV care services.

CONCLUSIONS

GIS and spatial analysis have been widely applied to HIV-related research in Africa. The current literature reveals a diversity of themes and methodologies and a relatively young, but rapidly growing, evidence base.

Finding Hidden HIV Clusters to Support Geographic-Oriented HIV Interventions in Kenya

Background:

In a spatially well known and dispersed HIV epidemic, identifying geographic clusters with significantly higher HIV prevalence is important for focusing interventions for people living with HIV (PLHIV).

Methods:

We used Kulldorff spatial-scan Poisson model to identify clusters with high numbers of HIV-infected persons 15–64 years old. We classified PLHIV as belonging to either higher prevalence or lower prevalence (HP/LP) clusters, then assessed distributions of sociodemographic and biobehavioral HIV risk factors and associations with clustering.

Results:

About half of survey locations, 112/238 (47%) had high rates of HIV (HP clusters), with 1.1–4.6 times greater PLHIV adults observed than expected. Richer persons compared with respondents in lowest wealth index had higher odds of belonging to a HP cluster, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.61 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13 to 2.3], aOR 1.66 (95% CI: 1.09 to 2.53), aOR 3.2 (95% CI: 1.82 to 5.65), and aOR 2.28 (95% CI: 1.09 to 4.78) in second, middle, fourth, and highest quintiles, respectively. Respondents who perceived themselves to have greater HIV risk or were already HIV-infected had higher odds of belonging to a HP cluster, aOR 1.96 (95% CI: 1.13 to 3.4) and aOR 5.51 (95% CI: 2.42 to 12.55), respectively; compared with perceived low risk. Men who had ever been clients of female sex worker had higher odds of belonging to a HP cluster than those who had never been, aOR 1.47 (95% CI: 1.04 to 2.08); and uncircumcised men vs circumcised, aOR 3.2 (95% CI: 1.74 to 5.8).

Conclusions:

HIV infection in Kenya exhibits localized geographic clustering associated with sociodemographic and behavioral factors, suggesting disproportionate exposure to higher HIV risk. Identification of these clusters reveals the right places for targeting priority-tailored HIV interventions.

How to "Live a Good Life": Aging and HIV Testing in Rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

The African HIV epidemic is aging, yet HIV testing behavior studies either exclude older persons or include too few to say much about age differences.

METHOD

Strategically combining focus group interviews (participants in 40s/50s/60s-plus age groups) and survey data from rural South Africa (where HIV prevalence peaks in the late 30s, but continues to be over 10% into the late 60s), we examine gender and life course variation, motivations, and barriers in HIV testing.

RESULTS

We find significant gender differences-Women test at higher rates at younger ages, men at older ages. Our qualitative data not only highlight recognition of testing importance but also suggest gendered motivations and perceptions of testing. Men and women report similar barriers, however, including fear of finding out their (positive) HIV status, limited confidentiality, and partner nondisclosure.

DISCUSSION

We conclude with recommendations to increase HIV testing uptake among older adults including home testing, couples testing, and HIV testing concurrently with noncommunicable diseases.

Identifying 'corridors of HIV transmission' in a severely affected rural South African population: a case for a shift toward targeted prevention strategies

Background

In the context of a severe generalized African HIV epidemic, the value of geographically targeted prevention interventions has only recently been given serious consideration. However, to date no study has performed a population-based analysis of the micro-geographical clustering of HIV incident infections, limiting the evidential support for such a strategy.

Methods

We followed 17 984 HIV-uninfected individuals aged 15–54 in a population-based cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and observed individual HIV sero-conversions between 2004 and 2014. We geo-located all individuals to an exact homestead of residence (accuracy <2 m). We then employed a two-dimensional Gaussian kernel of radius 3 km to produce robust estimates of HIV incidence which vary across continuous geographical space. We also applied Tango's flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic to identify irregularly shaped clusters of high HIV incidence.

Results

Between 2004 and 2014, we observed a total of 2 311 HIV sero-conversions over 70 534 person-years of observation, at an overall incidence of 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.1-3.4] per 100 person-years. Three large irregularly-shaped clusters of new HIV infections (relative risk = 1.6, 1.7 and 2.3) were identified in two adjacent peri-urban communities near the National Road (P = 0.001, 0.015) as well as in a rural node bordering a recent coal mine development (P = 0.020), respectively. Together the clusters had a significantly higher age-sex standardized incidence of 5.1 (95% CI, 4.7-5.6) per 100 person-years compared with a standardized incidence of 3.0 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.9-3.2) in the remainder of the study area. Though these clusters comprise just 6.8% of the study area, they account for one out of every four sero-conversions observed over the study period.

Conclusions

Our study has revealed clear ‘corridors of transmission’ in this typical rural, hyper-endemic population. Even in a severely affected rural African population, an approach that seeks to provide preventive interventions to the most vulnerable geographies could be more effective and cost-effective in reducing the overall rate of new HIV infections. There is an urgent need to develop and test such interventions as part of an overall combination prevention approach.

Sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa: trends and comparisons

There is limited information about sexual behavior among older Africans, which is problematic given high HIV rates among older adults. We use a population-based survey among people aged 15-80+ to examine the prevalence of sexual risk and protective behaviors in the context of a severe HIV epidemic. We focus on variation across the life course, gender and HIV serostatus to compare the similarities and differences of young, middle aged, and older adults. Younger adults continue to be at risk of HIV, with potential partners being more likely to have been diagnosed with an STI and more likely to have HIV, partner change is high, and condom use is low. Middle aged and older adults engage in sexual behavior that makes them vulnerable at older ages, including extramarital sex, low condom use, and cross-generational sex with people in age groups with the highest rates of HIV. We find insignificant differences between HIV positive and negative adults' reports of recent sexual activity. This study provides new information on sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa to inform HIV prevention and treatment programing.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13: a population surveillance analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the effects of socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes is important to implement specific preventive actions. We assessed socioeconomic disparities in mortality indicators in a rural South African population over the period 2001-13.

METHODS

We used data from 21 villages of the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We calculated the probabilities of death from birth to age 5 years and from age 15 to 60 years, life expectancy at birth, and cause-specific and age-specific mortality by sex (not in children <5 years), time period, and socioeconomic status (household wealth) quintile for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes, non-communicable diseases, and injury. We also quantified differences with relative risk ratios and relative and slope indices of inequality.

FINDINGS

Between 2001 and 2013, 10 414 deaths were registered over 1 058 538 person-years of follow-up, meaning the overall crude mortality was 9·8 deaths per 1000 person-years. We found significant socioecomonic status gradients for mortality and life expectancy at birth, with outcomes improving with increasing socioeconomic status. An inverse relation was seen for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality and socioeconomic status that persisted from 2001 to 2013. Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased over time in both sexes, and injury was an important cause of death in men and boys. Neither of these causes of death, however, showed consistent significant associations with household socioeconomic status.

INTERPRETATION

The poorest people in the population continue to bear a high burden of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality, despite free antiretroviral therapy being made available from public health facilities. Associations between socioeconomic status and increasing burden of mortality from non-communicable diseases is likely to become prominent. Integrated strategies are needed to improve access to and uptake of HIV testing, care, and treatment, and management of non-communicable diseases in the poorest populations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, South African Medical Research Council, and University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.

Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013

Background

Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population.

Methods

We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013.

Results

From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males.

Conclusions

This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4312-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in agrarian, trading, and fishing communities in Rakai, Uganda: an observational epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Understanding the extent to which HIV burden differs across communities and the drivers of local disparities is crucial for an effective and targeted HIV response. We assessed community-level variations in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and treatment and prevention service uptake in Rakai, Uganda.

METHODS

The Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) is an open, population-based cohort of people aged 15-49 years in 40 communities. Participants are HIV tested and interviewed to obtain sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information. RCCS data from Aug 10, 2011, to May 30, 2013, were used to classify communities as agrarian (n=27), trading (n=9), or lakeside fishing sites (n=4). We mapped HIV prevalence with Bayesian methods, and characterised variability across and within community classifications. We also assessed differences in HIV risk factors and uptake of antiretroviral therapy and male circumcision between community types.

FINDINGS

17 119 individuals were included, 9215 (54%) of whom were female. 9931 participants resided in agrarian, 3318 in trading, and 3870 in fishing communities. Median HIV prevalence was higher in fishing communities (42%, range 38-43) than in trading (17%, 11-21) and agrarian communities (14%, 9-26). Antiretroviral therapy use was significantly lower in both men and women in fishing communities than in trading (age-adjusted prevalence risk ratio in men 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·97; women 0·53, 0·42-0·66) and agrarian communities (men 0·55, 0·42-0·72; women 0·65, 0·54-0·79), as was circumcision coverage among men (vs trading 0·48, 0·42-0·55; vs agrarian 0·64, 0·56-0·72). Self-reported risk behaviours were significantly higher in men than in women and in fishing communities than in other community types.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial heterogeneity in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and service uptake in Rakai, Uganda, emphasises the need for local surveillance and the design of targeted HIV responses. High HIV burden, risk behaviours, and low use of combination HIV prevention in fishing communities make these populations a priority for intervention.

FUNDING

National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, National Institutes of Health; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.

The development of a localised HIV epidemic and the associated excess mortality burden in a rural area of South Africa

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in South Africa rapidly developed into a major pandemic. Here we analyse the development of the epidemic in a rural area of the country. The data used were collected between 1992 and 2013 in a longitudinal population survey, the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Study, in the northeast of the country. Throughout the period of study mortality rates were similar in all villages, suggesting that there were multiple index cases evenly spread geographically. These were likely to have been returning migrant workers. For those aged below 39 years the HIV mortality rate was higher for women, above this age it was higher for men. This indicates the protective effect of greater access to HIV testing and treatment among older women. The recent convergence of mortality rates for Mozambicans and South Africans indicates that the former refugee population are being assimilated into the host community. More than 60% of the deaths occurring in this community between 1992 and 2013 could be attributed directly or indirectly to HIV. Recently there has been an increasing level of non-HIV mortality which has important implications for local healthcare provision. This study demonstrates how evidence from longitudinal analyses can support healthcare planning.

Targeting HIV services to male migrant workers in southern Africa would not reverse generalized HIV epidemics in their home communities: a mathematical modeling analysis

Background

Migrant populations such as mine workers contributed to the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a mathematical model to estimate the community-wide impact of targeting treatment and prevention to male migrants.

Methods

We augmented an individual-based network model, EMOD-HIV v0.8, to include an age-dependent propensity for males to migrate. Migrants were exposed to HIV outside their home community, but continued to participate in HIV transmission in the community during periodic visits.

Results

Migrant-targeted interventions would have been transformative in the 1980s to 1990s, but post-2015 impacts were more modest. When targetable migrants comprised 2% of adult males, workplace HIV prevention averted 3.5% of community-wide infections over 20 years. Targeted treatment averted 8.5% of all-cause deaths among migrants. When migrants comprised 10% of males, workplace prevention averted 16.2% of infections in the community, one-quarter of which were among migrants. Workplace prevention and treatment acted synergistically, averting 17.1% of community infections and 11.6% of deaths among migrants. These estimates do not include prevention of secondary spread of HIV or tuberculosis at the workplace.

Conclusions

Though cost-effective, targeting migrants cannot collapse generalized epidemics in their home communities. Such a strategy would only have been possible prior to the early 1990s. However, migrant-targeted interventions synergize with general-population expansion of HIV services.

Genotypic Variability of HIV-1 Reverse Transcriptase Gene from Long-Term Antiretroviral-Experienced Patients in Kenya

There is continuous need to track genetic profiles of HIV strains circulating in different geographic settings to hasten vaccine discovery and inform public health and intervention policies. We partially sequenced the reverse transcriptase region of the HIV-1 pol gene from a total of 54 Kenyan patients aged 18-56 years who continued highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) for between 8 and 102 months. Subtyping was done using both the JPHMM tool and phylogenetic method. HIV-1 subtype A1 was the predominant strain in circulation, representing 57.4% and 70.4% of all isolates as determined by JPHMM and phylogenetic methods, respectively. Subtypes D (14.8%, 7.4%), C (5.6%, 9.3%), and A2 (0%, 5.6%) were determined at respective prevalence by both methods. JPHMM identified 22.2% of the isolates as recombinants. This surveillance focused on the RT gene and reaffirms the predominance of subtype A and an increasing proportion of recombinant strains in the Kenyan epidemic.

Determinants of the risk of dying of HIV/AIDS in a rural South African community over the period of the decentralised roll-out of antiretroviral therapy: a longitudinal study

Background

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has significantly reduced HIV mortality in South Africa. The benefits have not been experienced by all groups. Here we investigate the factors associated with these inequities.

Design

This study was located in a rural South African setting and used data collected from 2007 to 2010, the period when decentralised ART became available. Approximately one-third of the population were of Mozambican origin. There was a pattern of repeated circular migration between urban areas and this community. Survival analysis models were developed to identify demographic, socioeconomic, and spatial risk factors for HIV mortality.

Results

Among the study population of 105,149 individuals, there were 2,890 deaths. The HIV/TB mortality rate decreased by 27% between 2007–2008 and 2009–2010. For other causes of death, the reduction was 10%. Bivariate analysis found that the HIV/TB mortality risk was lower for: those living within 5 km of the Bhubezi Community Health Centre; women; young adults; in-migrants with a longer period of residence; permanent residents; and members of households owning motorised transport, holding higher socioeconomic positions, and with higher levels of education. Multivariate modelling showed, in addition, that those with South Africa as their country of origin had an increased risk of HIV/TB mortality compared to those with Mozambican origins. For males, those of South African origin, and recent in-migrants, the risk of death associated with HIV/TB was significantly greater than that due to other causes.

Conclusions

In this community, a combination of factors was associated with an increased risk of dying of HIV/TB over the period of the roll-out of ART. There is evidence for the presence of barriers to successful treatment for particular sub-groups in the population, which must be addressed if the recent improvements in population-level mortality are to be maintained.

Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa

BACKGROUND

The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data.

OBJECTIVE

To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action.

DESIGN

Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system.

CONCLUSIONS

The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.