Modeling the ecologic niche of plague in sylvan and domestic animal hosts to delineate sources of human exposure in the western United States

Using Remote Sensing Data and Species–Environmental Matching Model to Predict the Potential Distribution of Grassland Rodents in the Northern China

An increase in grassland rodent pests in China has seriously affected grassland ecological environments and the development of husbandry. Here, we used remote sensing data and a species–environmental matching model to predict the potential spatial distribution of the five major rodent pest species (Microtus, Citellus, Myospalax, Meriones, Ochotona) in northern China, and examined how the predicted suitability of the area depends on environmental variables. The results were consistent and significant, better than random, and close to optimal. Meriones and Microtus had the largest areas of High Suitability and Moderate Suitability with regard to environmental conditions. The combination analysis of areas of Moderate Suitability and High Suitability showed that for 66% of the total area, conditions were suitable for just one rodent species, while conditions suitable for two and three kinds of rodents accounted for 31% and 3%, respectively. Altitude, land surface temperature in winter (November, December, February) and summer (May, June, July), vegetation cover in summer (July, August), and precipitation from spring to summer (April, May, June) determined the spatial distribution of grassland rodents. Our findings provide a powerful and useful methodological tool for tracking the five major rodent pest species in northern China and for future management measures to ensure grassland ecological environment security.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Plague Risk in the Tibetan Plateau from 1954-2016

Plague persists in the plague natural foci today. Although previous studies have found climate drives plague dynamics, quantitative analysis on animal plague risk under climate change remains understudied. Here, we analyzed plague dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which is a climate-sensitive area and one of the most severe animal plague areas in China to disentangle variations in marmot plague enzootic foci, diffusion patterns, and their possible links with climate and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we developed a time-sharing ecological niche modelling framework to identify finer potential plague territories and their temporal epidemic trends. Models were conducted by assembling animal records and multi-source ecophysiological variables with actual ecological effects (both climatic predictors and landscape factors) and driven by matching plague strains to periods corresponding to meteorological datasets. The models identified abundant animal plague territories over the TP and suggested the spatial patterns varied spatiotemporal dimension across the years, undergoing repeated spreading and contractions. Plague risk increased in the 1980s and 2000s, with the risk area increasing by 17.7 and 55.5 thousand km², respectively. The 1990s and 2010s were decades of decreased risk, with reductions of 71.9 and 39.5 thousand km², respectively. Further factor analysis showed that intrinsic conditions (i.e., elevation, soil, and geochemical landscape) provided fundamental niches. In contrast, climatic conditions, especially precipitation, led to niche differentiation and resulted in varied spatial patterns. Additionally, while increased human interference may temporarily reduce plague risks, there is a strong possibility of recurrence. This study reshaped the plague distribution at multiple time scales in the TP and revealed multifactorial synergistic effects on the spreading and contraction of plague foci, confirming that TP plague is increasingly sensitive to climate change. These findings may facilitate groups to take measures to combat the plague threats and prevent potential future human plague from occurring.

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.

Interrelationship of soil moisture and temperature to sylvatic plague cycle among prairie dogs in the Western United States

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, is a flea-borne disease that is endemic in areas throughout the world due to its successful maintenance in a sylvatic cycle, mainly in areas with temperate climates. Burrowing rodents are thought to play a key role in the enzootic maintenance as well as epizootic outbreaks of plague. In the United States, prairie dogs (Cynomys), rodents (Muridae), and ground squirrels (Spermophilus) are susceptible to infection and are parasitized by fleas that transmit plague. In particular, prairie dogs can experience outbreaks that rapidly spread, which can lead to extirpation of colonies. A number of ecological parameters, including climate, are associated with these epizootics. In this study, we asked whether soil parameters, primarily moisture and temperature, are associated with outbreaks of plague in black-tailed prairie dogs and Gunnison's prairie dogs in the Western United States, and at what depth these associations were apparent. We collected publicly available county-level information on the occurrence of population declines or colony extirpation, while historical soil data was collected from SCAN and USCRN stations in counties and states where prairie dogs have been located. The analysis suggests that soil moisture at lower depths correlates with colony die-offs, in addition to temperature near the surface, with key differences within the landscape ecology that impact the occurrence of plague. Overall, the model suggests that the burrow environment may play a significant role in the epizootic spread of disease amongst black-tailed and Gunnison's prairie dogs.

The rise of pneumonic plague in Madagascar: current plague outbreak breaks usual seasonal mould

Madagascar has just emerged from the grip of an acute urban pneumonic plague outbreak, which began in August 2017, before the usual plague season of October-April and outside the traditional plague foci in the northern and central highlands. The World Health Organization reported a total of 2417 confirmed, probable and suspected cases, including 209 deaths between 1 August and 26 November 2017. The severity and scope of this outbreak, which has affected those in higher socioeconomic groups as well as those living in poverty, along with factors including the potential for use of multi-drug-resistant strains of plague in bioterrorism, highlights the ongoing threat posed by this ancient disease. Factors likely to have contributed to transmission include human behaviour, including burial practices and movement of people, poor urban planning leading to overcrowding and ready transmission by airborne droplets, climatic factors and genomic subtypes. The outbreak demonstrates the importance of identifying targeted pneumonic plague therapies and of developing vaccines that can be administered in planned programmes in developing countries such as Madagascar where plague is endemic. The dominance of pneumonic plague in this outbreak suggests that we need to focus more urgently on the danger of person-to-person transmission, as well as the problem of transmission of plague from zoonotic sources.

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in the natural plague foci of Chinese Mongolian gerbils based on spatial autocorrelation

BACKGROUND

The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014, in order to predict plague outbreaks.

METHODS

Global spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils. Cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were also used to detect the intensity of clusters based on geographic information system methods. The quantity of M. unguiculatus nest fleas in the sentinel surveillance sites from 2005 to 2014 and host density data of the study area from 2005 to 2010 used in this study were provided by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

RESULTS

The epidemic focus regions of the Mongolian gerbils remain the same as the hot spot regions relating to the body flea index. High clustering areas possess a similar pattern as the distribution pattern of the body flea index indicating that the transmission risk of plague is relatively high. In terms of time series, the area of the epidemic focus gradually increased from 2005 to 2007, declined rapidly in 2008 and 2009, and then decreased slowly and began trending towards stability from 2009 to 2014. For the spatial change, the epidemic focus regions began moving northward from the southwest epidemic focus of the Mongolian gerbils from 2005 to 2007, and then moved from north to south in 2007 and 2008.

CONCLUSIONS

The body flea index of Chinese gerbil foci reveals significant spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics through the employing of spatial autocorrelation. The diversity of temporary and spatial distribution is mainly affected by seasonal variation, the human activity and natural factors.

Efficacy of a fipronil bait in reducing the number of fleas (Oropsylla spp.) infesting wild black-tailed prairie dogs

Bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis) is a deadly zoonosis with black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) as a reservoir host in the United States. Systemic insecticides are a promising means of controlling the vectors, Oropsylla spp. fleas, infesting these prairie dogs, subsequently disrupting the Y. pestis cycle. The objective of this study was to conduct a field trial evaluating the efficacy of a grain rodent bait containing fipronil (0.005%) against fleas infesting prairie dogs. The study was performed in Larimer County, CO, where bait was applied to a treatment area containing a dense prairie dog population, three times over a three-week period. Prairie dogs were captured and combed for fleas during four study periods (pre-, mid-, 1^st post-, and 2^nd post-treatment). Results indicated the use of bait containing fipronil significantly reduced flea burden. The bait containing fipronil was determined to reduce the mean number of fleas per prairie dog >95% for a minimum of 52 days post-initial treatment application and 31 days post-final treatment application. These results suggest the potential for this form of treatment to reduce flea population density on prairie dogs, and subsequently plague transmission, among mammalian hosts across the United States and beyond.

Infection resistance and tolerance in Peromyscus spp., natural reservoirs of microbes that are virulent for humans

The widely-distributed North American species Peromyscus leucopus and P. maniculatus of cricetine rodents are, between them, important natural reservoirs for several zoonotic diseases of humans: Lyme disease, human granulocytic anaplasmosis, babesiosis, erhlichiosis, hard tickborne relapsing fever, Powassan virus encephalitis, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and plague. While these infections are frequently disabling and sometimes fatal for humans, the peromyscines display little pathology and apparently suffer few consequences, even when prevalence of persistent infection in a population is high. While these Peromyscus spp. are unable to clear some of the infections, they appear to have partial resistance, which limits the burden of the pathogen. In addition, they display traits of infection tolerance, which reduces the damage of the infection. Research on these complementary resistance and tolerance phenomena in Peromyscus has relevance both for disease control measures targeting natural reservoirs and for understanding the mechanisms of the comparatively greater sickness of many humans with these and other infections.

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves.