Estimating flowering transition dates from status-based phenological observations: a test of methods

Differences in individual flowering time change pollen limitation and seed set in three montane wildflowers

PREMISE

Changes to flowering time caused by climate change could affects plant fecundity, but studies that compare the individual-level responses of phenologically distinct, co-occurring species are lacking. We assessed how variation in floral phenology affects the fecundity of individuals from three montane species with different seasonal flowering times, including in snowmelt acceleration treatments to increase variability in phenology.

METHODS

We collected floral phenology and seed set data for individuals of three montane plant species (Mertensia fusiformis, Delphinium nuttallianum, Potentilla pulcherrima). To examine the drivers of seed set, we measured conspecific floral density and conducted pollen limitation experiments to isolate pollination function. We advanced the phenology of plant communities in a controlled large-scale snowmelt acceleration experiment.

RESULTS

Differences in individual phenology relative to the rest of the population affected fecundity in our focal species, but effects were species-specific. For our early-season species, individuals that bloomed later than the population peak bloom had increased fecundity, while for our midseason species, simply blooming before or after the population peak increased individual fecundity. For our late-season species, blooming earlier than the population peak increased fecundity. The early and midseason species were pollen-limited, and conspecific density affected seed set only for our early-season species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that variation in individual phenology affects fecundity in three phenologically distinct montane species, and that pollen limitation may be more influential than conspecific density. Our results suggest that individual-level changes in phenology are important to consider for understanding plant reproductive success.

Network robustness and structure depend on the phenological characteristics of plants and pollinators

Many structural patterns have been found to be important for the stability and robustness of mutualistic plant-pollinator networks. These structural patterns are impacted by a suite of variables, including species traits, species abundances, their spatial configuration, and their phylogenetic history. Here, we consider a specific trait: phenology, or the timing of life history events. We expect that timing and duration of activity of pollinators, or of flowering in plants, could greatly affect the species' roles within networks in which they are embedded. Using plant-pollinator networks from 33 sites in southern British Columbia, Canada, we asked (a) how phenological species traits, specifically timing of first appearance in the network and duration of activity in a network, were related to species' roles within a network, and (b) how those traits affected network robustness to phenologically biased species loss. We found that long duration of activity increased connection within modules for both pollinators and plants and among modules for plants. We also found that date of first appearance was positively related to interaction strength asymmetry in plants but negatively related to pollinators. Networks were generally more robust to the loss of pollinators than plants, and robustness increased if the models allow new interactions to form when old ones are lost, constrained by overlapping phenology of plants and pollinators. Robustness declined with the loss of late-flowering plants, which tended to have higher interaction strength asymmetry. In addition, robustness declined with loss of early-flying or long-duration pollinators. These pollinators tended to be among-module connectors. Our results point to networks being limited by early-flying pollinators. If plants flower earlier due to climate change, plant fitness may decline as they will depend on early emerging pollinators, unless pollinators also emerge earlier.

Low-cost observations and experiments return a high value in plant phenology research

Plant ecologists in the Anthropocene are tasked with documenting, interpreting, and predicting how plants respond to environmental change. Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events including leaf-out, flowering, fruiting, and leaf senescence, is among the most visible and oft-recorded facets of plant ecology. Climate-driven shifts in plant phenology can alter reproductive success, interspecific competition, and trophic interactions. Low-cost phenology research, including observational records and experimental manipulations, is fundamental to our understanding of both the mechanisms and effects of phenological change in plant populations, species, and communities. Traditions of local-scale botanical phenology observations and data leveraged from written records and natural history collections provide the historical context for recent observations of changing phenologies. New technology facilitates expanding the spatial, taxonomic, and human interest in this research by combining contemporary field observations by researchers and open access community science (e.g., USA National Phenology Network) and available climate data. Established experimental techniques, such as twig cutting and common garden experiments, are low-cost methods for studying the mechanisms and drivers of plant phenology, enabling researchers to observe phenological responses under novel environmental conditions. We discuss the strengths, limitations, potential hidden costs (i.e., volunteer and student labor), and promise of each of these methods for addressing emerging questions in plant phenology research. Applied thoughtfully, economically, and creatively, many low-cost approaches offer novel opportunities to fill gaps in our geographic, taxonomic, and mechanistic understanding of plant phenology worldwide.