Out-of-home interventions for adolescents who were treated according to the Open Dialogue model for mental health care

BACKGROUND

The Open Dialogue approach (OD) emphasizes community-based psychiatric treatment for adolescents, but its success in achieving this is poorly documented.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse out-of-home intervention usage in a national sample of adolescent psychiatric patients and determine if OD is linked to increased time until out-of-home intervention.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

The register-based cohort study included all adolescents aged 13-20 who received psychiatric treatment in Finland between 2003 and 2008. The research group (n = 780) included adolescents whose treatment was initiated in the Western Lapland catchment area, where OD covered the entire psychiatric service. The comparison group (n = 44,088) included the rest of Finland. National register data encompassed the period from treatment onset until the end of the 10-year follow-up or death. The primary outcomes of interest were the times to the first and second out-of-home intervention, including foster care, supportive housing, and hospitalization. The secondary outcomes included the clinical/demographic characteristics of adolescents treated out-of-home.

METHODS

The hypothesis was tested via an inverse probability of treatment-weighted Cox hazard model, plus within- and between-group comparisons to analyse the secondary outcome.

RESULTS

OD was associated with increased time to the first (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.61, 95%CI: 0.52-0.72) and second (aHR: 0.75, 95%CI: 0.58-0.96) out-of-home interventions. In both service types, there was a subgroup of adolescents with repeated out-of-home interventions, who also demonstrated poorer long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSION

OD-based psychiatric services for adolescents are associated with fewer out-of-home interventions. The clinical significance of the findings warrants further research.

Internet accessibility and incident depressive symptoms in middle aged and older adults in China: A national longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

With the rapid development of the Internet over the past ten years, its widespread applications and accessibility may cause dynamic changes in the association between internet use and depressive symptoms.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to explore the association between internet accessibility (including broadband connection, internet use, frequency, and devices for internet use), as well as its changes, and the risk of incident depressive symptoms for middle aged and older adults based on a cohort study.

METHODS

8772 participants with three repeat waves of follow-up (average 6.04 years) were included. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to explore risk effects. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % Confidence Intervals [CI] were presented.

RESULTS

Incidence density for depressive symptoms was 53.89 for every 1000 person-years. The rate of internet usage by middle aged and older adults in China increased evidently from 2012 to 2018 (16.39 % vs 77.41 %). Broadband internet connection (BIC) (HR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.71, 0.90) and moderate frequency of internet use (IU) (HR = 0.30, 95%CI: 0.10, 0.92) were associated with decreased risk of depressive symptoms. Participants who changed from no internet accessibility to internet accessibility were associated with a lower risk of depressive symptoms (BIC: HR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.41, 0.51; IU: HR = 0.42, 95%CI: 0.34, 0.51). Using large screen devices (HR = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.45, 0.91) for internet access, instead of phones, was associated with lower risk of depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults should be encouraged to use the Internet; online time, frequency, and devices for internet use should be considered simultaneously.

Current Patterns of Treatment and Outcomes in Advanced Melanoma at a Single Institution

INTRODUCTION

Treatment of advanced melanoma has been transformed by novel systemic therapies. The purpose of this study is to describe the current utilization patterns of immunotherapies with respect to survival outcomes in advanced melanoma.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with Stage 3 and 4 melanoma at our institution (2009-2019). Primary outcomes included overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis evaluated associations between covariates and survival outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 244 patients, 5-y OS was 62.4%. Lymphovascular invasion (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.462, P = 0.030) was associated with shorter PFS whereas female gender (HR = 0.324, P = 0.010) was associated with longer PFS. Residual tumor (HR = 146, P = 0.006) and Stage 4 disease (HR = 3.349, P = 0.011) were associated with shorter OS. Use of immunotherapy increased from 2% to 23% over the study period, and use of neoadjuvant immunotherapy also increased up to 2016. Timing of immunotherapy administration was not significantly associated with survival. Of the 193 patients who received 2 or more treatment types, the most common treatment sequence was surgery followed by immunotherapy (n = 117, 60.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Immunotherapy is increasingly used for treatment of advanced melanoma. In this heterogeneous cohort, there was no significant association between timing of immunotherapy and survival outcomes.

Frailty Is Common in Heart Transplant Candidates But Is Not Associated With Clinical Events and Is Reversible After Heart Transplantation

Assessment of frailty before heart transplant (HT) is recommended but is not standard in most HT protocols. Our objective was to evaluate frailty at inclusion in HT list and during follow-up and to assess the influence of baseline frailty on prognosis. A prospective multicenter study in all adults included in the nonurgent HT waiting list. Frailty was defined as Fried's frailty phenotype score ≥3. Mean follow-up was 25.9 ± 1.2 months. Of 99 patients (mean age 54.8 [43.1 to 62.5] years, 70 men [70.7%]), 28 were frail (28.3%). A total of 85 patients received HT after 0.5 ± 0.01 years. Waiting time was shorter in frail patients (0.6 years [0.3 to 0.8] vs 0.2 years [0.1 to 0.4], p = 0.001) because of an increase in priority. Baseline frailty was not associated with overall mortality, (hazard ratio 0.99 [95% confidence interval 0.41 to 2.37, p = 0.98]). A total of 16 transplant recipients died (18.8%). Of the remaining 69 HT recipients, 65 underwent frailty evaluation during follow-up. Patients without baseline frailty (n = 49) did not develop it after HT. Of 16 patients with baseline frailty, only 2 were still frail at the end of follow-up. Frailty is common in HT candidates but is reversible in most cases after HT and is not associated with post-transplant mortality. Our results suggest that frailty should not be considered an exclusion criterion for HT.

The Moli-sani risk score, a new algorithm for measuring the global impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is preventable through interventions targeting modifiable factors. Most algorithms based on modifiable CV risk factors (CV-rf) have been developed in US populations and do not account for the role of diet. We aimed to assess an algorithm based on modifiable CV-rf including diet, using data from an Italian population.

METHODS

To derive the Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS), we used data on 16,656 men and women (age ≥ 35 y) from the population of the Moli-sani Study. The Risk-and-Prevention-Study, Italy (N = 8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's-Simple-7 score was used as benchmark. The MRS targeted at fatal or non-fatal CV events and included 9 common modifiable CV-rf.

RESULTS

After 8.1 years (median) of follow-up, 816 events occurred in the derivation cohort. The MRS was calculated as a weighted sum of its 9 components, with weights reflecting the strength of the association. In comparison with individuals in the first, those in the fourth quartile of the score had hazard ratio (HR) for CV events equal to 3.18 (95%CI: 2.54-3.97). One more point in the score was associated with 7% (6%-8%) and 4% (3%-5%) higher hazard of events in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The MRS performed better than the Life's Simple-7 for discrimination.

CONCLUSION

We propose the Moli-sani Risk Score, a validated, performing algorithm able to measure the combined impact that modifiable CV-rf have on CV risk. The score can be used to design preventive interventions, quantify the effectiveness of interventions, and compare different preventive strategies.

On the integration of decision trees with mixture cure model

The mixture cure model is widely used to analyze survival data in the presence of a cured subgroup. Standard logistic regression-based approaches to model the incidence may lead to poor predictive accuracy of cure, specifically when the covariate effect is non-linear. Supervised machine learning techniques can be used as a better classifier than the logistic regression due to their ability to capture non-linear patterns in the data. However, the problem of interpret-ability hangs in the balance due to the trade-off between interpret-ability and predictive accuracy. We propose a new mixture cure model where the incidence part is modeled using a decision tree-based classifier and the proportional hazards structure for the latency part is preserved. The proposed model is very easy to interpret, closely mimics the human decision-making process, and provides flexibility to gauge both linear and non-linear covariate effects. For the estimation of model parameters, we develop an expectation maximization algorithm. A detailed simulation study shows that the proposed model outperforms the logistic regression-based and spline regression-based mixture cure models, both in terms of model fitting and evaluating predictive accuracy. An illustrative example with data from a leukemia study is presented to further support our conclusion.

Troponin dependent 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Troponin concentrations above upper reference are associated with increased mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). We aimed to assess whether risk of 30-day mortality increases in a dose-response relationship with concentration of troponin.

METHODS

Using Danish national registries, we identified patients ≥ 18 years of age hospitalized with first-time PE between 2013 and 2018 and available troponin measurements - 1/+1 day from admission. Patients were stratified into quintiles by increasing troponin concentration. Risk of 30-day mortality was assessed performing cumulative mortality curves and Cox regression model comparing the troponin quintiles.

RESULTS

We identified 5,639 PE patients of which 3,278 (58%) had a troponin concentration above upper reference. These patients were older (74 years), 50% male and with heavier comorbidity compared to patients with non-elevated troponin. We found increasing 30-day mortality with increasing troponin concentration (1% in 1st quintile (95% CI 0.5-1.5%), 2% in 2nd quintile (95% CI 1-2.5%), 8% in 3rd quintile (95% CI 5-9%), 11% in 4th quintile (95% CI 9-13%) and 15% in 5th quintile (95% CI 13-16%), confirmed in a Cox model comparing 1st quintile with 2nd quintile (HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.58-2.02), 3rd quintile (HR 3.68; 95% CI 2.20-6.15), 4th quintile (HR 5.51; 95% CI 3.34-9.10) and 5th quintile (HR 8.09; 95% CI 4.95-13.23).

CONCLUSION

30-day mortality was strongly associated with troponin concentration useful for improving risk stratification, treatment strategies and outcomes in PE patients.

Deep learning model for predicting the survival of patients with primary gastrointestinal lymphoma based on the SEER database and a multicentre external validation cohort

PURPOSE

Due to the rarity of primary gastrointestinal lymphoma (PGIL), the prognostic factors and optimal management of PGIL have not been clearly defined. We aimed to establish prognostic models using a deep learning algorithm for survival prediction.

METHODS

We collected 11,168 PGIL patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to form the training and test cohorts. At the same time, we collected 82 PGIL patients from three medical centres to form the external validation cohort. We constructed a Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model, random survival forest (RSF) model, and neural multitask logistic regression (DeepSurv) model to predict PGIL patients' overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates of PGIL patients in the SEER database were 77.1%, 69.4%, 63.7%, and 50.3%, respectively. The RSF model based on all variables showed that the top three most important variables for predicting OS were age, histological type, and chemotherapy. The independent risk factors for PGIL patient prognosis included sex, age, race, primary site, Ann Arbor stage, histological type, symptom, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, according to the Lasso regression analysis. Using these factors, we built the CoxPH and DeepSurv models. The DeepSurv model's C-index values were 0.760 in the training cohort, 0.742 in the test cohort, and 0.707 in the external validation cohort, which demonstrated that the DeepSurv model performed better compared to the RSF model (0.728) and the CoxPH model (0.724). The DeepSurv model accurately predicted 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year OS. Both calibration curves and decision curve analysis curves demonstrated the superior performance of the DeepSurv model. We developed the DeepSurv model as an online web calculator for survival prediction, which can be accessed at http://124.222.228.112:8501/ .

CONCLUSIONS

This DeepSurv model with external validation is superior to previous studies in predicting short-term and long-term survival and can help us make better-individualized decisions for PGIL patients.

Comparison of Survival Outcomes Between Larynx-Preserving Open Partial Pharyngectomy and Radiotherapy or Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Hypopharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Single-Center Retrospective Analysis with Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Adjustments

BACKGROUND

There is a group of hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC) patients for whom larynx-preserving open partial pharyngectomy (PP) and radiotherapy/chemoradiotherapy (RT/CRT) are indicated. We aimed to retrospectively evaluate the survival difference as there is no evidence directly comparing the two therapies.

METHODS

This study evaluated HPSCC patients who were initially treated by PP or RT/CRT at our institution between January 2007 and October 2019. Overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival (DSS), laryngectomy-free survival (LFS), and local relapse-free survival (LRFS) were evaluated. The main analyses were performed with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) adjustments. Sensitivity analyses compared hazard ratios (HRs) obtained with three models: unadjusted, multivariate Cox regression, and propensity score-adjusted.

RESULTS

Overall, 198 patients were enrolled; 63 and 135 underwent PP and RT/CRT, respectively. IPTW-adjusted 5-year OS, DSS, LFS, and LRFS rates in the PP and RT/CRT groups were 84.3% and 61.9% (p = 0.019), 84.9% and 75.8% (p = 0.168), 94.8% and 90.0% (p = 0.010), and 75.9% and 74.1% (p = 0.789), respectively. In the IPTW-adjusted regression analysis, PP was associated with a significant benefit regarding OS (HR 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.26-0.90) and LFS (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.77). The results obtained with the three models in the sensitivity analyses were qualitatively similar to those of the IPTW-adjusted models.

CONCLUSION

Despite the risk of bias related to unadjusted factors, our results suggest that PP is associated with significantly better OS and LFS compared with RT/CRT for HPSCC.

Improving marginal hazard ratio estimation using quadratic inference functions

Clustered and multivariate failure time data are commonly encountered in biomedical studies and a marginal regression approach is often employed to identify the potential risk factors of a failure. We consider a semiparametric marginal Cox proportional hazards model for right-censored survival data with potential correlation. We propose to use a quadratic inference function method based on the generalized method of moments to obtain the optimal hazard ratio estimators. The inverse of the working correlation matrix is represented by the linear combination of basis matrices in the context of the estimating equation. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the regression estimators from the proposed method. The optimality of the hazard ratio estimators is discussed. Our simulation study shows that the estimator from the quadratic inference approach is more efficient than those from existing estimating equation methods whether the working correlation structure is correctly specified or not. Finally, we apply the model and the proposed estimation method to analyze a study of tooth loss and have uncovered new insights that were previously inaccessible using existing methods.