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Zurell D, Schifferle K, Herrando S, Keller V, Lehikoinen A, Sattler T, Wiedenroth L. Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230013. [PMID: 38583472 PMCID: PMC10999265 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damaris Zurell
- Ecology and Macroecology Laboratory, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Katrin Schifferle
- Ecology and Macroecology Laboratory, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sergi Herrando
- European Bird Census Council (EBCC), Prague, CZ-150 00, Czech Republic
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, ES-08193, Spain
- Catalan Ornithological Institute (ICO), Natural Science Museum of Barcelona, Barcelona, ES-08019, Spain
| | - Verena Keller
- European Bird Census Council (EBCC), Prague, CZ-150 00, Czech Republic
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- European Bird Census Council (EBCC), Prague, CZ-150 00, Czech Republic
- The Helsinki Laboratory of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki 00014, Finland
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Levin Wiedenroth
- Ecology and Macroecology Laboratory, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
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2
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Hartig F, Abrego N, Bush A, Chase JM, Guillera-Arroita G, Leibold MA, Ovaskainen O, Pellissier L, Pichler M, Poggiato G, Pollock L, Si-Moussi S, Thuiller W, Viana DS, Warton DI, Zurell D, Yu DW. Novel community data in ecology-properties and prospects. Trends Ecol Evol 2024; 39:280-293. [PMID: 37949795 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.09.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Revised: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
New technologies for monitoring biodiversity such as environmental (e)DNA, passive acoustic monitoring, and optical sensors promise to generate automated spatiotemporal community observations at unprecedented scales and resolutions. Here, we introduce 'novel community data' as an umbrella term for these data. We review the emerging field around novel community data, focusing on new ecological questions that could be addressed; the analytical tools available or needed to make best use of these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation. We conclude that novel community data offer many opportunities to advance our understanding of fundamental ecological processes, including community assembly, biotic interactions, micro- and macroevolution, and overall ecosystem functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
| | - Nerea Abrego
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35 (Survontie 9C), FI-40014 Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Alex Bush
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Jonathan M Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | | | | | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35 (Survontie 9C), FI-40014 Jyväskylä, Finland; Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki 00014, Finland
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Ecosystems and Landscape Evolution, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Unit of Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Giovanni Poggiato
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, F38000, Grenoble, France
| | - Laura Pollock
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Sara Si-Moussi
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, F38000, Grenoble, France
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, F38000, Grenoble, France
| | | | | | | | - Douglas W Yu
- Kunming Institute of Zoology; Yunnan, China; University of East Anglia, Norfolk, UK
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Essl F, García‐Rodríguez A, Lenzner B, Alexander JM, Capinha C, Gaüzère P, Guisan A, Kühn I, Lenoir J, Richardson DM, Rumpf SB, Svenning J, Thuiller W, Zurell D, Dullinger S. Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models. J Biogeogr 2024; 51:89-102. [PMID: 38515765 PMCID: PMC10952696 DOI: 10.1111/jbi.14726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 03/23/2024]
Abstract
The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Franz Essl
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Adrián García‐Rodríguez
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Bernd Lenzner
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | | | - César Capinha
- Centre of Geographical StudiesInstitute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of LisbonLisboaPortugal
- Associate Laboratory TERRALisbonPortugal
| | - Pierre Gaüzère
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRSLECAGrenobleF‐38000France
| | | | - Ingolf Kühn
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZHalleGermany
- Martin Luther University Halle‐WittenbergHalleGermany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058, Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN)Université de Picardie Jules VerneAmiensFrance
| | - David M. Richardson
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Centre for Invasion BiologyStellenbosch UniversityStellenboschSouth Africa
- Department of Invasion EcologyCzech Academy of Sciences, Institute of BotanyPrůhoniceCzech Republic
| | - Sabine B. Rumpf
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of BaselBaselSwitzerland
| | - Jens‐Christian Svenning
- Department of Biology, Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE)Aarhus UniversityAarhusDenmark
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRSLECAGrenobleF‐38000France
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and BiologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Division of Biodiversity Dynamics and Conservation, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
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4
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Karger DN, Saladin B, Wüest RO, Graham CH, Zurell D, Mo L, Zimmermann NE. Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species. Sci Rep 2023; 13:12538. [PMID: 37532828 PMCID: PMC10397316 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-39637-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate is an important limiting factor of species' niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | - Bianca Saladin
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Rafael O Wüest
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Catherine H Graham
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 3, 14469, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lidong Mo
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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5
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Howard C, Marjakangas EL, Morán-Ordóñez A, Milanesi P, Abuladze A, Aghababyan K, Ajder V, Arkumarev V, Balmer DE, Bauer HG, Beale CM, Bino T, Boyla KA, Burfield IJ, Burke B, Caffrey B, Chodkiewicz T, Del Moral JC, Mazal VD, Fernández N, Fornasari L, Gerlach B, Godinho C, Herrando S, Ieronymidou C, Johnston A, Jovicevic M, Kalyakin M, Keller V, Knaus P, Kotrošan D, Kuzmenko T, Leitão D, Lindström Å, Maxhuni Q, Mihelič T, Mikuska T, Molina B, Nagy K, Noble D, Øien IJ, Paquet JY, Pladevall C, Portolou D, Radišić D, Rajkov S, Rajković DZ, Raudonikis L, Sattler T, Saveljić D, Shimmings P, Sjenicic J, Šťastný K, Stoychev S, Strus I, Sudfeldt C, Sultanov E, Szép T, Teufelbauer N, Uzunova D, van Turnhout CAM, Velevski M, Vikstrøm T, Vintchevski A, Voltzit O, Voříšek P, Wilk T, Zurell D, Brotons L, Lehikoinen A, Willis SG. Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4304. [PMID: 37474503 PMCID: PMC10359363 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Howard
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
| | - Emma-Liina Marjakangas
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Forest Science and Tecnology Centre (CTFC), Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Spain
| | - Pietro Milanesi
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
- Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BiGeA), University of Bologna, Via F. Selmi 3, 40126, Bologna, Italy
| | - Aleksandre Abuladze
- Institute of Zoology, Ilia State University, Kakutsa Cholokashvili Ave 3 / 5, Tbilisi, 0162, Georgia
| | - Karen Aghababyan
- BirdLinks Armenia (former TSE-Towards Sustainable Ecosystems) NGO, 87b Dimitrov, apt 14, Yerevan, Armenia
| | - Vitalie Ajder
- Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Leova, Republic of Moldova
- Moldova State University, A.Mateevici str. 60, Chişinău, Republic of Moldova
| | - Volen Arkumarev
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Dawn E Balmer
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Hans-Günther Bauer
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Max-Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour, Am Obstberg 1, 78315, Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Colin M Beale
- York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
- Department of Biology, University of York, YO10 5DD, York, UK
| | - Taulant Bino
- Albanian Ornithological Society, Rr. "Vaso Pasha", Nd. 4, Apt. 3, 1004, Tirana, Albania
| | - Kerem Ali Boyla
- WWF Turkey, Büyük Postane Caddesi No: 19 Kat: 5, 34420, Bahçekapı-Fatih, İstanbul, Turkey
| | - Ian J Burfield
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Brian Burke
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Brian Caffrey
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Tomasz Chodkiewicz
- Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679, Warszawa, Poland
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland
| | - Juan Carlos Del Moral
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain
| | - Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal
- Institute for Environment and Nature, Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, Radnicka cesta 80, 10 000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Néstor Fernández
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Inst. of Biology, Martin Luther Univ. Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | | | - Bettina Gerlach
- DDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany
| | - Carlos Godinho
- MED-Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development; LabOr-Laboratório de Ornitologia Universidade de Évora Pólo da Mitra, Apartado 94, 7002-774, Évora, Portugal
| | - Sergi Herrando
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona, Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Alison Johnston
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | | | - Mikhail Kalyakin
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia
| | - Verena Keller
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Peter Knaus
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Dražen Kotrošan
- Ornithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Tatiana Kuzmenko
- Ukrainian Society for the Protection of Birds, P.O. Box 33, Kyiv, 01103, Ukraine
| | - Domingos Leitão
- Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves, Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho, 46A, 1700-031, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Åke Lindström
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Qenan Maxhuni
- Kosovo Ornithological Society, Str. Hysni Gashi no. 28, Kalabri, 10 000, Prishtinë, Republic of Kosovo
| | - Tomaž Mihelič
- DOPPS-BirdLife Slovenia, Tržaška c. 2, SI, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Tibor Mikuska
- Croatian Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Gundulićeva 19a, HR-31000, Osijek, Croatia
| | - Blas Molina
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain
| | - Károly Nagy
- MME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary
| | - David Noble
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | | | | | - Clara Pladevall
- Andorra Research + Innovation, Av. Rocafort 21-23, AD600, Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra
| | - Danae Portolou
- Hellenic Ornithological Society / BirdLife Greece, Agiou Konstantinou 52, Athens, 10437, Greece
| | - Dimitrije Radišić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Saša Rajkov
- Center for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Draženko Z Rajković
- Center for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Liutauras Raudonikis
- Lithuanian Ornithological Society, Naugarduko st. 47-3, LT-03208, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Darko Saveljić
- Environmental Protection Agency of Montenegro, IV proleterske 19, 81000, Podgorica, Montenegro
| | - Paul Shimmings
- BirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b, NO-7012, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jovica Sjenicic
- Ornithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Society for Research and Protection of Biodiversity, Mladena Stojanovica 2, 78 000, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Karel Šťastný
- Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dept. of Ecology, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6-Suchdol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Stoycho Stoychev
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Iurii Strus
- Nature reserve "Roztochya", Sichovyh Striltsiv 7, 81070, Ivano-Frankove, Ukraine
| | - Christoph Sudfeldt
- DDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany
| | - Elchin Sultanov
- Azerbaijan Ornithological Society, M. Mushfiq 4B, ap.60, Baku, AZ1004, Azerbaijan Republic
| | - Tibor Szép
- MME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary
- University of Nyíregyháza, 4400 Sóstói út 31/b, Nyíregyháza, Hungary
| | | | - Danka Uzunova
- Macedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia
| | - Chris A M van Turnhout
- Sovon-Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Metodija Velevski
- Macedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia
| | - Thomas Vikstrøm
- Dansk Ornitologisk Forening (DOF-BirdLife DK), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Olga Voltzit
- Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia
| | - Petr Voříšek
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 34, 15000, Prague 5, Czechia
| | - Tomasz Wilk
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lluís Brotons
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Forest Science and Tecnology Centre (CTFC), Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Spain
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- CSIC, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Stephen G Willis
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
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6
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Tekwa E, Gonzalez A, Zurell D, O'Connor M. Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220181. [PMID: 37246389 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
This issue addresses the multifaceted problems of understanding biodiversity change to meet emerging international development and conservation goals, national economic accounting and diverse community needs. Recent international agreements highlight the need to establish monitoring and assessment programmes at national and regional levels. We identify an opportunity for the research community to develop the methods for robust detection and attribution of biodiversity change that will contribute to national assessments and guide conservation action. The 16 contributions of this issue address six major aspects of biodiversity assessment: connecting policy to science, establishing observation, improving statistical estimation, detecting change, attributing causes and projecting the future. These studies are led by experts in Indigenous studies, economics, ecology, conservation, statistics, and computer science, with representations from Asia, Africa, South America, North America and Europe. The results place biodiversity science in the context of policy needs and provide an updated roadmap for how to observe biodiversity change in a way that supports conservation action via robust detection and attribution science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eden Tekwa
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 1B1
- Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, British Columbia, Canada V0P 1H0
| | - Andrew Gonzalez
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 1B1
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Mary O'Connor
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4
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7
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Malchow AK, Hartig F, Reeg J, Kéry M, Zurell D. Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220194. [PMID: 37246385 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 04/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, we aim to infer demography-climate relationships from distribution and abundance data. For this, we developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes-juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to 267 nationwide abundance time series in a Bayesian framework. The fitted models showed moderate to excellent goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Contemporary climate change benefitted the population trends of typical mountain birds leading to lower population losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic process-based models embedded in a robust statistical framework can improve our predictions of range dynamics and may allow disentangling of the underlying processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical studies in order to gain more precise insights into the mechanisms by which climate affects populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- A-K Malchow
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - F Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, Faculty of Biology and Pre-Clinical Medicine, University of Regensburg, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
| | - J Reeg
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - M Kéry
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - D Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
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8
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Southwell D, Skroblin A, Moseby K, Southgate R, Indigo N, Backhouse B, Bellchambers K, Brandle R, Brenton P, Copley P, Dziminski MA, Galindez-Silva C, Lynch C, Newman P, Pedler R, Rogers D, Roshier DA, Ryan-Colton E, Tuft K, Ward M, Zurell D, Legge S. Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia. Ecol Appl 2023; 33:e2762. [PMID: 36218186 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2021] [Revised: 04/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13 years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15 years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darren Southwell
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Anja Skroblin
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katherine Moseby
- University of NSW School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Richard Southgate
- Envisage Environmental Services, Kingscote, South Australia, Australia
| | - Naomi Indigo
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Research, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Brett Backhouse
- Alinytjara Wilurara Landscape Board, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | | | - Robert Brandle
- Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- South Australian Arid Lands Landscape Board, Port Augusta, South Australia, Australia
| | - Peter Brenton
- Atlas of Living Australia, CSIRO National Collections and Marine Infrastructure, Docklands, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peter Copley
- Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Martin A Dziminski
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Carolina Galindez-Silva
- Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Land Management, Alice Springs, Northwest Territories, Australia
| | - Catherine Lynch
- South Australian Arid Lands Landscape Board, Port Augusta, South Australia, Australia
| | - Peggy Newman
- Atlas of Living Australia, CSIRO National Collections and Marine Infrastructure, Docklands, Victoria, Australia
| | - Reece Pedler
- University of NSW School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Daniel Rogers
- Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - David A Roshier
- Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Subiaco, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Ellen Ryan-Colton
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Alice Springs, Northwest Territories, Australia
| | | | - Matt Ward
- Department for Environment and Water, South Australian Government, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sarah Legge
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Research, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Alice Springs, Northwest Territories, Australia
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
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Fandos G, Talluto M, Fiedler W, Robinson RA, Thorup K, Zurell D. Standardised empirical dispersal kernels emphasise the pervasiveness of long-distance dispersal in European birds. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:158-170. [PMID: 36398379 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 10/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Dispersal is a key life-history trait for most species and is essential to ensure connectivity and gene flow between populations and facilitate population viability in variable environments. Despite the increasing importance of range shifts due to global change, dispersal has proved difficult to quantify, limiting empirical understanding of this phenotypic trait and wider synthesis. Here, we introduce a statistical framework to estimate standardised dispersal kernels from biased data. Based on this, we compare empirical dispersal kernels for European breeding birds considering age (average dispersal; natal, before first breeding; and breeding dispersal, between subsequent breeding attempts) and sex (females and males) and test whether different dispersal properties are phylogenetically conserved. We standardised and analysed data from an extensive volunteer-based bird ring-recoveries database in Europe (EURING) by accounting for biases related to different censoring thresholds in reporting between countries and to migratory movements. Then, we fitted four widely used probability density functions in a Bayesian framework to compare and provide the best statistical descriptions of the different age and sex-specific dispersal kernels for each bird species. The dispersal movements of the 234 European bird species analysed were statistically best explained by heavy-tailed kernels, meaning that while most individuals disperse over short distances, long-distance dispersal is a prevalent phenomenon in almost all bird species. The phylogenetic signal in both median and long dispersal distances estimated from the best-fitted kernel was low (Pagel's λ < 0.25), while it reached high values (Pagel's λ >0.7) when comparing dispersal distance estimates for fat-tailed dispersal kernels. As expected in birds, natal dispersal was on average 5 km greater than breeding dispersal, but sex-biased dispersal was not detected. Our robust analytical framework allows sound use of widely available mark-recapture data in standardised dispersal estimates. We found strong evidence that long-distance dispersal is common among European breeding bird species and across life stages. The dispersal estimates offer a first guide to selecting appropriate dispersal kernels in range expansion studies and provide new avenues to improve our understanding of the mechanisms and rules underlying dispersal events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillermo Fandos
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.,Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Matthew Talluto
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Department of Biology, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, University of Konstanz, Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Robert A Robinson
- British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, Norfolk, UK.,European Union for Bird Ringing c/o British Trust for Ornithology, Norfolk, UK
| | - Kasper Thorup
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.,Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Pratzer M, Nill L, Kuemmerle T, Zurell D, Fandos G. Large carnivore range expansion in Iberia in relation to different scenarios of permeability of human‐dominated landscapes. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13645] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Marie Pratzer
- Geography Department Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany
| | - Leon Nill
- Geography Department Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany
| | - Tobias Kuemmerle
- Geography Department Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Department Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
| | - Guillermo Fandos
- Geography Department Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
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11
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Peterson AT, Aiello-Lammens M, Amatulli G, Anderson R, Cobos M, Diniz-Filho JA, Escobar L, Feng X, Franklin J, Gadelha L, Georges D, Guéguen M, Gueta T, Ingenloff K, Jarvie S, Jiménez L, Karger D, Kass J, Kearney M, Loyola R, Machado-Stredel F, Martínez-Meyer E, Merow C, Mondelli ML, Mortara S, Muscarella R, Myers C, Naimi B, Noesgaard D, Ondo I, Osorio-Olvera L, Owens H, Pearson R, Pinilla-Buitrago G, Sánchez-Tapia A, Saupe E, Thuiller W, Varela S, Warren D, Wieczorek J, Yates K, Zhu G, Zuquim G, Zurell D. ENM2020: A Free Online Course and Set of Resources on Modeling Species' Niches and Distributions. Biodiv Inf 2022. [DOI: 10.17161/bi.v17i.15016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades—including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts—but methodological consensus has yet to be reached. In response, and following an online course taught in Spanish in 2018, we designed a comprehensive English-language course covering much of the underlying theory and methods currently applied in this broad field. Here, we summarize that course, ENM2020, and provide links by which resources produced for it can be accessed into the future. ENM2020 lasted 43 weeks, with presentations from 52 instructors, who engaged with >2500 participants globally through >14,000 hours of viewing and >90,000 views of instructional video and question-and-answer sessions. Each major topic was introduced by an “Overview” talk, followed by more detailed lectures on subtopics. The hierarchical and modular format of the course permits updates, corrections, or alternative viewpoints, and generally facilitates revision and reuse, including the use of only the Overview lectures for introductory courses. All course materials are free and openly accessible (CC-BY license) to ensure these resources remain available to all interested in distributional ecology.
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Urban MC, Travis JMJ, Zurell D, Thompson PL, Synes NW, Scarpa A, Peres-Neto PR, Malchow AK, James PMA, Gravel D, De Meester L, Brown C, Bocedi G, Albert CH, Gonzalez A, Hendry AP. Corrigendum: Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity. Bioscience 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mark C Urban
- University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, United States
| | | | | | | | | | - Alice Scarpa
- University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | - Luc De Meester
- Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, with the Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei, Berlin, Germany, and with the Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Calum Brown
- IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Greta Bocedi
- University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Cécile H Albert
- Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Univ Avignon, IRD, IMBE, Marseille, France
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Urban MC, Travis JMJ, Zurell D, Thompson PL, Synes NW, Scarpa A, Peres-Neto PR, Malchow AK, James PMA, Gravel D, De Meester L, Brown C, Bocedi G, Albert CH, Gonzalez A, Hendry AP. Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity. Bioscience 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discover problematic gaps. Current models usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other species or systems, omit key biological processes, and cannot accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, and universal biodiversity modeling platform that can project essential biodiversity variables, explore the implications of divergent socioeconomic scenarios, and compare conservation and management strategies. We design a roadmap for implementing this vision and demonstrate that building this biodiversity forecasting platform is possible and practical.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark C Urban
- University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, United States
| | | | | | | | | | - Alice Scarpa
- University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | - Luc De Meester
- Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, with the Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei, Berlin, Germany, and with the Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Calum Brown
- IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Greta Bocedi
- University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Cécile H Albert
- Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Univ Avignon, IRD, IMBE, Marseille, France
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14
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Oliveira-Silva AED, Piratelli AJ, Zurell D, da Silva FR. Vegetation cover restricts habitat suitability predictions of endemic Brazilian Atlantic Forest birds. Perspect Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2021.09.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
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15
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Briscoe NJ, Zurell D, Elith J, König C, Fandos G, Malchow AK, Kéry M, Schmid H, Guillera-Arroita G. Can dynamic occupancy models improve predictions of species' range dynamics? A test using Swiss birds. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:4269-4282. [PMID: 34037281 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15723] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Predictions of species' current and future ranges are needed to effectively manage species under environmental change. Species ranges are typically estimated using correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which have been criticized for their static nature. In contrast, dynamic occupancy models (DOMs) explicitily describe temporal changes in species' occupancy via colonization and local extinction probabilities, estimated from time series of occurrence data. Yet, tests of whether these models improve predictive accuracy under current or future conditions are rare. Using a long-term data set on 69 Swiss birds, we tested whether DOMs improve the predictions of distribution changes over time compared to SDMs. We evaluated the accuracy of spatial predictions and their ability to detect population trends. We also explored how predictions differed when we accounted for imperfect detection and parameterized models using calibration data sets of different time series lengths. All model types had high spatial predictive performance when assessed across all sites (mean AUC > 0.8), with flexible machine learning SDM algorithms outperforming parametric static and DOMs. However, none of the models performed well at identifying sites where range changes are likely to occur. In terms of estimating population trends, DOMs performed best, particularly for species with strong population changes and when fit with sufficient data, while static SDMs performed very poorly. Overall, our study highlights the importance of considering what aspects of performance matter most when selecting a modelling method for a particular application and the need for further research to improve model utility. While DOMs show promise for capturing range dynamics and inferring population trends when fitted with sufficient data, computational constraints on variable selection and model fitting can lead to reduced spatial accuracy of predictions, an area warranting more attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie J Briscoe
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Dept., Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Inst. for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jane Elith
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia
| | - Christian König
- Geography Dept., Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Inst. for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Guillermo Fandos
- Geography Dept., Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Inst. for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Anne-Kathleen Malchow
- Geography Dept., Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Inst. for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Marc Kéry
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Hans Schmid
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland
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16
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Bleyhl B, Ghoddousi A, Askerov E, Bocedi G, Breitenmoser U, Manvelyan K, Palmer SCF, Soofi M, Weinberg P, Zazanashvili N, Shmunk V, Zurell D, Kuemmerle T. Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey. Ecol Appl 2021; 31:e02338. [PMID: 33780069 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2020] [Revised: 11/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule-based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km2 ). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km2 ), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual-based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long-term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range-expanding species, can be overcome with a rule-based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Bleyhl
- Geography Department, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
| | - Arash Ghoddousi
- Geography Department, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
| | - Elshad Askerov
- WWF-Azerbaijan, 6th Boyuk Gala dongesi 11, Sabayıl rayon, Baku, Az 1001, Azerbaijan
- Institute of Zoology of Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences, Block 504, pass 1128, A. Abbaszade Str, Baku, Az 1073, Azerbaijan
- Institute of Ecology, Ilia State University, Cholokashvili Ave 3/5, Tbilisi, 0162, Georgia
| | - Greta Bocedi
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK
| | - Urs Breitenmoser
- KORA, Thunstrasse 31, Muri bei Bern, 3074, Switzerland
- Centre for Fish and Wildlife Health, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Länggassstrasse 122, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
| | | | - Stephen C F Palmer
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK
| | - Mahmood Soofi
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK
- Department of Conservation Biology, University of Goettingen, Bürgerstr. 50, Göttingen, 37073, Germany
| | - Paul Weinberg
- North Ossetian Nature Reserve, 1 Basieva Str., RSO-Alania, Alagir, 363245, Russia
| | - Nugzar Zazanashvili
- Institute of Ecology, Ilia State University, Cholokashvili Ave 3/5, Tbilisi, 0162, Georgia
- WWF Caucasus Programme Office, Aleksidze Str. 11, Tbilisi, 0193, Georgia
| | - Valerii Shmunk
- Russian Caucasus Ecoregional Office, WWF-Russia, Kommunarov Str., No. 268, Lit. D, Krasnodar, 350042, Russia
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Department, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Am Neuen Palais 10, Potsdam, D-14469, Germany
| | - Tobias Kuemmerle
- Geography Department, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
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17
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Wohlwend MR, Craven D, Weigelt P, Seebens H, Winter M, Kreft H, Zurell D, Sarmento Cabral J, Essl F, van Kleunen M, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Knight TM. Anthropogenic and environmental drivers shape diversity of naturalized plants across the Pacific. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Michael R. Wohlwend
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
| | - Dylan Craven
- Centro de Modelación y Monitoreo de Ecosistemas Universidad Mayor Santiago Chile
| | - Patrick Weigelt
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL) University of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Hanno Seebens
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK‐F) Frankfurt am Main Germany
| | - Marten Winter
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
| | - Holger Kreft
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL) University of Goettingen Göttingen Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry & Biology University Potsdam Potsdam Germany
| | - Juliano Sarmento Cabral
- Center of Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB) University of Würzburg Würzburg Germany
| | - Franz Essl
- Department for Botany und Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria
| | - Mark van Kleunen
- Department of Biology University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
- Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Taizhou University Taizhou China
| | - Jan Pergl
- Department of Invasion Ecology Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice Czech Republic
| | - Petr Pyšek
- Department of Invasion Ecology Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice Czech Republic
- Department of Ecology Faculty of Science Charles University Prague 2 Czech Republic
| | - Tiffany M. Knight
- Institute of Biology Martin Luther University Halle‐Wittenberg Halle (Saale) Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research‐UFZ Halle (Saale) Germany
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18
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Rotics S, Turjeman S, Kaatz M, Zurell D, Wikelski M, Sapir N, Fiedler W, Eggers U, Resheff YS, Jeltsch F, Nathan R. Early-life behaviour predicts first-year survival in a long-distance avian migrant. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202670. [PMID: 33434462 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Early-life conditions have critical, long-lasting effects on the fate of individuals, yet early-life activity has rarely been linked to subsequent survival of animals in the wild. Using high-resolution GPS and body-acceleration data of 93 juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), we examined the links between behaviour during both pre-fledging and post-fledging (fledging-to-migration) periods and subsequent first-year survival. Juvenile daily activity (based on overall dynamic body acceleration) showed repeatable between-individual variation, the juveniles' pre- and post-fledging activity levels were correlated and both were positively associated with subsequent survival. Daily activity increased gradually throughout the post-fledging period, and the relationship between post-fledging activity and survival was stronger in individuals who increased their daily activity level faster (an interaction effect). We suggest that high activity profiles signified individuals with increased pre-migratory experience, higher individual quality and perhaps more proactive personality, which could underlie their superior survival rates. The duration of individuals' fledging-to-migration periods had a hump-shaped relationship with survival: higher survival was associated with intermediate rather than short or long durations. Short durations reflect lower pre-migratory experience, whereas very long ones were associated with slower increases in daily activity level which possibly reflects slow behavioural development. In accordance with previous studies, heavier nestlings and those that hatched and migrated earlier had increased survival. Using extensive tracking data, our study exposed new links between early-life attributes and survival, suggesting that early activity profiles in migrating birds can explain variation in first-year survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shay Rotics
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Sondra Turjeman
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Michael Kaatz
- Vogelschutzwarte Storchenhof Loburg e.V., Chausseestrasse 18, 39279 Loburg, Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Ecology and Macroecology, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, 78315 Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Nir Sapir
- Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology and Institute of Evolution, University of Haifa, 3498838 Haifa, Israel
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, 78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78468 Konstanz, Germany
| | - Ute Eggers
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Yehezkel S Resheff
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.,Edmond and Lily Safra Center for Brain Sciences, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14476 Potsdam, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
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19
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Fandos G, Rotics S, Sapir N, Fiedler W, Kaatz M, Wikelski M, Nathan R, Zurell D. Seasonal niche tracking of climate emerges at the population level in a migratory bird. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20201799. [PMID: 32962549 PMCID: PMC7542805 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Seasonal animal migration is a widespread phenomenon. At the species level, it has been shown that many migratory animal species track similar climatic conditions throughout the year. However, it remains unclear whether such a niche tracking pattern is a direct consequence of individual behaviour or emerges at the population or species level through behavioural variability. Here, we estimated seasonal niche overlap and seasonal niche tracking at the individual and population level of central European white storks (Ciconia ciconia). We quantified niche tracking for both weather and climate conditions to control for the different spatio-temporal scales over which ecological processes may operate. Our results indicate that niche tracking is a bottom-up process. Individuals mainly track weather conditions while climatic niche tracking mainly emerges at the population level. This result may be partially explained by a high degree of intra- and inter-individual variation in niche overlap between seasons. Understanding how migratory individuals, populations and species respond to seasonal environments is key for anticipating the impacts of global environmental changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillermo Fandos
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, D-14469, Potsdam, Germany.,Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Shay Rotics
- Movement Ecology Lab, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behaviour, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus at Givat Ram, 91904 Jerusalem, Israel.,Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nir Sapir
- Department Evolutionary and Environmental Biology and Institute of Evolution, University of Haifa, 3498838 Haifa, Israel
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Michael Kaatz
- Vogelschutzwarte Storchenhof Loburg e.V., Loburg, Germany
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany.,Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour, University of Konstanz, 78457 Konstanz, Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Lab, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behaviour, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus at Givat Ram, 91904 Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, D-14469, Potsdam, Germany.,Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
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20
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Becciu P, Rotics S, Horvitz N, Kaatz M, Fiedler W, Zurell D, Flack A, Jeltsch F, Wikelski M, Nathan R, Sapir N. Causes and consequences of facultative sea crossing in a soaring migrant. Funct Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Paolo Becciu
- Animal Flight Laboratory Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology Institute of Evolution University of Haifa Haifa Israel
| | - Shay Rotics
- Movement Ecology Laboratory Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel
| | - Nir Horvitz
- Movement Ecology Laboratory Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel
| | - Michael Kaatz
- Vogelschutzwarte Storchenhof Loburg e.V. Loburg Germany
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Department of Migration Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Radolfzell Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Department Humboldt‐Universität Berlin Berlin Germany
- Land Change Science Swiss Federal Research Institute WSl Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Andrea Flack
- Department of Migration Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Radolfzell Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute for Biochemistry and Biology University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany
- Berlin‐Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB) Berlin Germany
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Radolfzell Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Laboratory Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel
| | - Nir Sapir
- Animal Flight Laboratory Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology Institute of Evolution University of Haifa Haifa Israel
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21
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Beckman NG, Aslan CE, Rogers HS, Kogan O, Bronstein JL, Bullock JM, Hartig F, HilleRisLambers J, Zhou Y, Zurell D, Brodie JF, Bruna EM, Cantrell RS, Decker RR, Efiom E, Fricke EC, Gurski K, Hastings A, Johnson JS, Loiselle BA, Miriti MN, Neubert MG, Pejchar L, Poulsen JR, Pufal G, Razafindratsima OH, Sandor ME, Shea K, Schreiber S, Schupp EW, Snell RS, Strickland C, Zambrano J. Advancing an interdisciplinary framework to study seed dispersal ecology. AoB Plants 2020; 12:plz048. [PMID: 32346468 PMCID: PMC7179845 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plz048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2018] [Accepted: 07/26/2019] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Although dispersal is generally viewed as a crucial determinant for the fitness of any organism, our understanding of its role in the persistence and spread of plant populations remains incomplete. Generalizing and predicting dispersal processes are challenging due to context dependence of seed dispersal, environmental heterogeneity and interdependent processes occurring over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Current population models often use simple phenomenological descriptions of dispersal processes, limiting their ability to examine the role of population persistence and spread, especially under global change. To move seed dispersal ecology forward, we need to evaluate the impact of any single seed dispersal event within the full spatial and temporal context of a plant's life history and environmental variability that ultimately influences a population's ability to persist and spread. In this perspective, we provide guidance on integrating empirical and theoretical approaches that account for the context dependency of seed dispersal to improve our ability to generalize and predict the consequences of dispersal, and its anthropogenic alteration, across systems. We synthesize suitable theoretical frameworks for this work and discuss concepts, approaches and available data from diverse subdisciplines to help operationalize concepts, highlight recent breakthroughs across research areas and discuss ongoing challenges and open questions. We address knowledge gaps in the movement ecology of seeds and the integration of dispersal and demography that could benefit from such a synthesis. With an interdisciplinary perspective, we will be able to better understand how global change will impact seed dispersal processes, and potential cascading effects on plant population persistence, spread and biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noelle G Beckman
- Department of Biology & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Clare E Aslan
- Landscape Conservation Initiative, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Haldre S Rogers
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - Oleg Kogan
- Physics Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, USA
| | - Judith L Bronstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - James M Bullock
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK
| | - Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | | | - Ying Zhou
- Department of Mathematics, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, USA
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Dept. Land Change Science, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Humboldt-University Berlin, Geography Dept., Berlin, Germany
| | - Jedediah F Brodie
- Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Emilio M Bruna
- Department of Wildlife Ecology & Conservation & Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Robin R Decker
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Edu Efiom
- REDD+ Unit, Cross River State Forestry Commission, Calabar, Nigeria
- Biology Department, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Evan C Fricke
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, MD, USA
| | - Katherine Gurski
- Department of Mathematics, Howard University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
- Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA
| | - Jeremy S Johnson
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Bette A Loiselle
- Center for Latin American Studies and Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Maria N Miriti
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Michael G Neubert
- Department of Biology, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Liba Pejchar
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - John R Poulsen
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Gesine Pufal
- Natur Conservation and Landscape Ecology, University of Freiburg Freiburg, Germany
| | | | - Manette E Sandor
- Landscape Conservation Initiative, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Katriona Shea
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Sebastian Schreiber
- Department of Evolution and Ecology and Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Eugene W Schupp
- Department of Wildland Resources & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Rebecca S Snell
- Department of Environmental and Plant Biology, Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA
| | | | - Jenny Zambrano
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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22
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Gallien L, Thornhill AH, Zurell D, Miller JT, Richardson DM. Global predictors of alien plant establishment success: combining niche and trait proxies. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 286:20182477. [PMID: 30963833 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2018.2477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Biological invasions are on the rise globally. To reduce future invasions, it is imperative to determine the naturalization potential of species. Until now, screening approaches have relied largely on species-specific functional feature data. Such information is, however, time-consuming and expensive to collect, thwarting the screening of large numbers of potential invaders. We propose to resolve such data limitations by developing indicators of establishment success of alien species that can be readily derived from open-access databases. These indicators describe key features of successfully established aliens, including estimates of potential range size, niche overlap with human-disturbed environments, and proxies of species traits related to their palaeoinvasions and local dominance capacities. We demonstrate the utility of this new approach by applying it to two large and highly invasive plant groups: Australian acacias and eucalypts. Our results show that these indicators robustly predict establishment successes and failures in each clade independently, and that they can cross-predict establishment in these two clades. Interestingly, the indicator identified as most important was species potential range size on Earth, a variable too rarely considered as a predictor. By successfully identifying key features that predispose Australian plants to naturalize, we provide an objective and cost-effective protocol for flagging high-risk introductions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laure Gallien
- 1 Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University , Matieland 7602 , South Africa.,2 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine) , 38000 Grenoble , France
| | - Andrew H Thornhill
- 3 Australian Tropical Herbarium, James Cook University , Cairns, Queensland 4870 , Australia.,4 Centre for Australian National Biodiversity Research, National Research Collections , Black Mountain, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory , Australia
| | - Damaris Zurell
- 5 Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , Berlin 10099 , Germany
| | - Joseph T Miller
- 4 Centre for Australian National Biodiversity Research, National Research Collections , Black Mountain, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory , Australia.,6 Office of International Science and Engineering, National Science Foundation , Alexandria, VA 22314 , USA
| | - David M Richardson
- 1 Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University , Matieland 7602 , South Africa
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23
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Rogers HS, Beckman NG, Hartig F, Johnson JS, Pufal G, Shea K, Zurell D, Bullock JM, Cantrell RS, Loiselle B, Pejchar L, Razafindratsima OH, Sandor ME, Schupp EW, Strickland WC, Zambrano J. The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions. AoB Plants 2019; 11:plz042. [PMID: 31579119 PMCID: PMC6757349 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plz042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2018] [Accepted: 07/18/2019] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The distribution and abundance of plants across the world depends in part on their ability to move, which is commonly characterized by a dispersal kernel. For seeds, the total dispersal kernel (TDK) describes the combined influence of all primary, secondary and higher-order dispersal vectors on the overall dispersal kernel for a plant individual, population, species or community. Understanding the role of each vector within the TDK, and their combined influence on the TDK, is critically important for being able to predict plant responses to a changing biotic or abiotic environment. In addition, fully characterizing the TDK by including all vectors may affect predictions of population spread. Here, we review existing research on the TDK and discuss advances in empirical, conceptual modelling and statistical approaches that will facilitate broader application. The concept is simple, but few examples of well-characterized TDKs exist. We find that significant empirical challenges exist, as many studies do not account for all dispersal vectors (e.g. gravity, higher-order dispersal vectors), inadequately measure or estimate long-distance dispersal resulting from multiple vectors and/or neglect spatial heterogeneity and context dependence. Existing mathematical and conceptual modelling approaches and statistical methods allow fitting individual dispersal kernels and combining them to form a TDK; these will perform best if robust prior information is available. We recommend a modelling cycle to parameterize TDKs, where empirical data inform models, which in turn inform additional data collection. Finally, we recommend that the TDK concept be extended to account for not only where seeds land, but also how that location affects the likelihood of establishing and producing a reproductive adult, i.e. the total effective dispersal kernel.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haldre S Rogers
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
- Corresponding author’s e-mail address:
| | - Noelle G Beckman
- Department of Biology and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Preclinical Medicine, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Jeremy S Johnson
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Gesine Pufal
- Department of Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Katriona Shea
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Dynamic Macroecology, Department of Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - James M Bullock
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | | | - Bette Loiselle
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation & Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Liba Pejchar
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | | | - Manette E Sandor
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
| | - Eugene W Schupp
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - W Christopher Strickland
- Department of Mathematics and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Jenny Zambrano
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman WA, USA
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24
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Johnson JS, Cantrell RS, Cosner C, Hartig F, Hastings A, Rogers HS, Schupp EW, Shea K, Teller BJ, Yu X, Zurell D, Pufal G. Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change. AoB Plants 2019; 11:plz020. [PMID: 31198528 PMCID: PMC6548345 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plz020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2018] [Accepted: 03/26/2019] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
When climatic or environmental conditions change, plant populations must either adapt to these new conditions, or track their niche via seed dispersal. Adaptation of plants to different abiotic environments has mostly been discussed with respect to physiological and demographic parameters that allow local persistence. However, rapid modifications in response to changing environmental conditions can also affect seed dispersal, both via plant traits and via their dispersal agents. Studying such changes empirically is challenging, due to the high variability in dispersal success, resulting from environmental heterogeneity, and substantial phenotypic variability of dispersal-related traits of seeds and their dispersers. The exact mechanisms that drive rapid changes are often not well understood, but the ecological implications of these processes are essential determinants of dispersal success, and deserve more attention from ecologists, especially in the context of adaptation to global change. We outline the evidence for rapid changes in seed dispersal traits by discussing variability due to plasticity or genetics broadly, and describe the specific traits and biological systems in which variability in dispersal is being studied, before discussing some of the potential underlying mechanisms. We then address future research needs and propose a simulation model that incorporates phenotypic plasticity in seed dispersal. We close with a call to action and encourage ecologists and biologist to embrace the challenge of better understanding rapid changes in seed dispersal and their consequences for the reaction of plant populations to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy S Johnson
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
- Dorena Genetic Resource Center, USDA Forest Service, Cottage Grove, OR, USA
| | | | - Chris Cosner
- Department of Mathematics, The University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA
| | - Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Haldre S Rogers
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - Eugene W Schupp
- Department of Wildland Resources & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Katriona Shea
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Brittany J Teller
- Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Xiao Yu
- Department of Mathematics, The University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Department of Geography, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Land Change and Science, Swiss Federal Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Gesine Pufal
- Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
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25
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Bouchet PJ, Peterson AT, Zurell D, Dormann CF, Schoeman D, Ross RE, Snelgrove P, Sequeira AMM, Whittingham MJ, Wang L, Rapacciuolo G, Oppel S, Mellin C, Lauria V, Krishnakumar PK, Jones AR, Heinänen S, Heikkinen RK, Gregr EJ, Fielding AH, Caley MJ, Barbosa AM, Bamford AJ, Lozano-Montes H, Parnell S, Wenger S, Yates KL. Better Model Transfers Require Knowledge of Mechanisms. Trends Ecol Evol 2019; 34:489-490. [PMID: 31054858 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2019.04.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2019] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 04/03/2019] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Phil J Bouchet
- Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
| | | | - Damaris Zurell
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Dept. Landscape Dynamics, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Geography Dept., Unter den Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Carsten F Dormann
- Biometry & Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Str. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
| | - David Schoeman
- School of Science & Engineering, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia; Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa
| | - Rebecca E Ross
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK; Institute for Marine Research, Nordnesgaten 50, 5005 Bergen, Norway
| | - Paul Snelgrove
- Department of Ocean Sciences and Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
| | - Ana M M Sequeira
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia; IOMRC and The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Mark J Whittingham
- Biology, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
| | - Lifei Wang
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada; Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | | | - Steffen Oppel
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Camille Mellin
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia; Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No 3, Townsville 4810, QLD, Australia
| | - Valentina Lauria
- Istituto per l'Ambiente Marino Costiero, IAMC-CNR, Mazara del Vallo, Trapani, Italy
| | - Periyadan K Krishnakumar
- Center for Environment and Water, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
| | - Alice R Jones
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Stefan Heinänen
- DHI, Ecology and Environment Department, Agern Allé 5, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Denmark; Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raseborgsvägen 9, 10600 Ekenäs, Finland
| | - Risto K Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, PO Box 140, FIN- 00251 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Edward J Gregr
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada; SciTec h Environmental Consulting, 2136 Napier Street, Vancouver, BC V5L 2N9, Canada
| | | | - M Julian Caley
- ARC Centre for Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - A Márcia Barbosa
- Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Observatório Astronómico Prof. Manuel de Barros, Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal
| | - Andrew J Bamford
- Wildfowl &Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire, GL2 7BT, UK
| | - Hector Lozano-Montes
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Stephen Parnell
- School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK
| | - Seth Wenger
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30601, USA
| | - Katherine L Yates
- School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK
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Aslan C, Beckman NG, Rogers HS, Bronstein J, Zurell D, Hartig F, Shea K, Pejchar L, Neubert M, Poulsen J, HilleRisLambers J, Miriti M, Loiselle B, Effiom E, Zambrano J, Schupp G, Pufal G, Johnson J, Bullock JM, Brodie J, Bruna E, Cantrell RS, Decker R, Fricke E, Gurski K, Hastings A, Kogan O, Razafindratsima O, Sandor M, Schreiber S, Snell R, Strickland C, Zhou Y. Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation. AoB Plants 2019; 11:plz006. [PMID: 30895154 PMCID: PMC6420810 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plz006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2018] [Accepted: 02/05/2019] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Seed dispersal enables plants to reach hospitable germination sites and escape natural enemies. Understanding when and how much seed dispersal matters to plant fitness is critical for understanding plant population and community dynamics. At the same time, the complexity of factors that determine if a seed will be successfully dispersed and subsequently develop into a reproductive plant is daunting. Quantifying all factors that may influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-vector relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. On the other hand, being able to make dispersal predictions is critical for predicting whether single species and entire ecosystems will be resilient to global change. Building on current frameworks, we here posit that seed dispersal ecology should adopt plant functional groups as analytical units to reduce this complexity to manageable levels. Functional groups can be used to distinguish, for their constituent species, whether it matters (i) if seeds are dispersed, (ii) into what context they are dispersed and (iii) what vectors disperse them. To avoid overgeneralization, we propose that the utility of these functional groups may be assessed by generating predictions based on the groups and then testing those predictions against species-specific data. We suggest that data collection and analysis can then be guided by robust functional group definitions. Generalizing across similar species in this way could help us to better understand the population and community dynamics of plants and tackle the complexity of seed dispersal as well as its disruption.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare Aslan
- Landscape Conservation Initiative, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
- Corresponding author’s e-mail address:
| | | | - Haldre S Rogers
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - Judie Bronstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Dynamic Macroecology, Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Florian Hartig
- Faculty of Biology and Pre-Clinical Medicine, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Katriona Shea
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, 208 Mueller Laboratory, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Liba Pejchar
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Mike Neubert
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - John Poulsen
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, USA
| | | | - Maria Miriti
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Bette Loiselle
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Edu Effiom
- CRS Forestry Commission, Calabar, Nigeria
| | - Jenny Zambrano
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, 1 Park Place, Annapolis, MD, USA
| | - Geno Schupp
- Department of Biology, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
| | - Gesine Pufal
- Naturschutz & Landschaftsökologie, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Jeremy Johnson
- Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | | | - Jedediah Brodie
- Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Emilio Bruna
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | | | - Evan Fricke
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - Katie Gurski
- Department of Mathematics, Howard University, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Oleg Kogan
- Physics Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, USA
| | | | - Manette Sandor
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | | | - Rebecca Snell
- Environmental and Plant Biology, Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA
| | | | - Ying Zhou
- Department of Mathematics, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, USA
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27
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Peterson AT, Anderson RP, Beger M, Bolliger J, Brotons L, Burridge CP, Cobos ME, Cuervo-Robayo AP, Di Minin E, Diez J, Elith J, Embling CB, Escobar LE, Essl F, Feeley KJ, Hawkes L, Jiménez-García D, Jimenez L, Green DM, Knop E, Kühn I, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Lira-Noriega A, Lobo JM, Loyola R, Mac Nally R, Machado-Stredel F, Martínez-Meyer E, McCarthy M, Merow C, Nori J, Nuñez-Penichet C, Osorio-Olvera L, Pyšek P, Rejmánek M, Ricciardi A, Robertson M, Rojas Soto O, Romero-Alvarez D, Roura-Pascual N, Santini L, Schoeman DS, Schröder B, Soberon J, Strubbe D, Thuiller W, Traveset A, Treml EA, Václavík T, Varela S, Watson JEM, Wiersma Y, Wintle B, Yanez-Arenas C, Zurell D. Open access solutions for biodiversity journals: Do not replace one problem with another. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- A. Townsend Peterson
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | - Robert P. Anderson
- City College of New York and Graduate Center; City University of New York; New York New York
| | - Maria Beger
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - Janine Bolliger
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | | | | | - Marlon E. Cobos
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | | | - Enrico Di Minin
- Department of Geosciences and Geography; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
- School of Life Sciences; University of KwaZulu-Natal; Durban South Africa
| | | | - Jane Elith
- University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria Australia
| | | | - Luis E. Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation; Virginia Tech Blacksburg Virginia
| | - Franz Essl
- Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology; University Vienna; Vienna Austria
| | | | - Lucy Hawkes
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Exeter; Penryn UK
| | - Daniel Jiménez-García
- Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente-ICUAP; Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla; Puebla Mexico
| | - Laura Jimenez
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | - David M. Green
- Redpath Museum; McGill University; Montreal Quebec Canada
| | - Eva Knop
- University of Bern; Bern Switzerland
| | - Ingolf Kühn
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ; Halle Germany
| | | | | | | | | | - Ralph Mac Nally
- University of Canberra; Bruce Australian Capital Territory Australia
| | - Fernando Machado-Stredel
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | | | | | | | - Javier Nori
- Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Córdoba Argentina
| | - Claudia Nuñez-Penichet
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | - Luis Osorio-Olvera
- Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste AC; Tabasco Mexico
| | - Petr Pyšek
- Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences; Prague Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science; Charles University; Prague Czech Republic
| | | | | | | | | | - Daniel Romero-Alvarez
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | - Núria Roura-Pascual
- Departament de Ciències Ambientals; Universitat de Girona; Girona Catalonia Spain
| | | | | | - Boris Schröder
- Technische Universität Braunschweig; Braunschweig Germany
| | - Jorge Soberon
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas; Lawrence Kansas
| | | | | | - Anna Traveset
- Mediterranean Institute of Advanced Studies (CSIC-UIB); Mallorca Spain
| | | | | | - Sara Varela
- Université Grenoble Alpes; Grenoble France
- CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc; Chambéry France
- LECA-Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpes; Gières France
| | - James E. M. Watson
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland; Brisbane Queensland Australia
- Wildlife Conservation Society; Bronx New York
| | - Yolanda Wiersma
- Department of Biology; Memorial University; St. John's NL Canada
| | - Brendan Wintle
- University of Melbourne; Parkville Victoria Australia
- University of Queensland; St Lucia Queensland Australia
| | - Carlos Yanez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Facultad de Ciencias-Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Mérida Yucatán México
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Zurell D, Graham CH, Gallien L, Thuiller W, Zimmermann NE. Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change. Nat Clim Chang 2018; 8:992-996. [PMID: 30416586 PMCID: PMC6217982 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0312-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2017] [Accepted: 09/21/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Many species migrate long distances annually between their breeding and wintering areas1. While global change affects both ranges, impact assessments have generally focused on breeding ranges and ignore how environmental changes influence migrants across geographic regions and the annual cycle2,3. Using range maps and species distribution models, we quantified the risk of summer and winter range loss and migration distance increase from future climate and land cover changes on long-distance migratory birds of the Holarctic (n=715). Risk estimates are largely independent of each other and magnitudes vary geographically. If seasonal range losses and increased migration distances are not considered, we strongly underestimate the number of threatened species by 18-49% and the overall magnitude of risk for 17-50% species. Many of the analysed species facing multiple global change risks are not listed by IUCN as threatened or near threatened. Neglecting seasonal migration in impact assessments could thus seriously misguide species' conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damaris Zurell
- Geography Dept., Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
- Dynamic Macroecology, Dept. Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to D.Z.
| | - Catherine H. Graham
- Dept. Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Laure Gallien
- Centre for Invasion Biology, Dept of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, ZA-7602 Matieland, South Africa
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont-Blanc, LECA-Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont-Blanc, LECA-Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Niklaus E. Zimmermann
- Dynamic Macroecology, Dept. Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland
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29
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Rotics S, Kaatz M, Turjeman S, Zurell D, Wikelski M, Sapir N, Eggers U, Fiedler W, Jeltsch F, Nathan R. Early arrival at breeding grounds: Causes, costs and a trade-off with overwintering latitude. J Anim Ecol 2018; 87:1627-1638. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12898] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2018] [Accepted: 08/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Shay Rotics
- Movement Ecology Laboratory; Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behaviour; Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences; The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Jerusalem Israel
| | - Michael Kaatz
- Vogelschutzwarte Storchenhof Loburg e.V.; Loburg Germany
| | - Sondra Turjeman
- Movement Ecology Laboratory; Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behaviour; Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences; The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Jerusalem Israel
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Geography Department; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Berlin Germany
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration and Immuno-Ecology; Max-Planck-Institute for Ornithology; Radolfzell Germany
- Department of Biology; University of Konstanz; Konstanz Germany
| | - Nir Sapir
- The Animal Flight Laboratory; Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology; University of Haifa; Haifa Israel
| | - Ute Eggers
- Department of Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology; Institute for Biochemistry and Biology; University of Potsdam; Potsdam Germany
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Department of Migration and Immuno-Ecology; Max-Planck-Institute for Ornithology; Radolfzell Germany
- Department of Biology; University of Konstanz; Konstanz Germany
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB); Berlin Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Laboratory; Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behaviour; Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences; The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Jerusalem Israel
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30
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Yates KL, Bouchet PJ, Caley MJ, Mengersen K, Randin CF, Parnell S, Fielding AH, Bamford AJ, Ban S, Barbosa AM, Dormann CF, Elith J, Embling CB, Ervin GN, Fisher R, Gould S, Graf RF, Gregr EJ, Halpin PN, Heikkinen RK, Heinänen S, Jones AR, Krishnakumar PK, Lauria V, Lozano-Montes H, Mannocci L, Mellin C, Mesgaran MB, Moreno-Amat E, Mormede S, Novaczek E, Oppel S, Ortuño Crespo G, Peterson AT, Rapacciuolo G, Roberts JJ, Ross RE, Scales KL, Schoeman D, Snelgrove P, Sundblad G, Thuiller W, Torres LG, Verbruggen H, Wang L, Wenger S, Whittingham MJ, Zharikov Y, Zurell D, Sequeira AM. Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models. Trends Ecol Evol 2018; 33:790-802. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 277] [Impact Index Per Article: 46.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2017] [Revised: 08/03/2018] [Accepted: 08/03/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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31
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Zurell D, von Wehrden H, Rotics S, Kaatz M, Groß H, Schlag L, Schäfer M, Sapir N, Turjeman S, Wikelski M, Nathan R, Jeltsch F. Home Range Size and Resource Use of Breeding and Non-breeding White Storks Along a Land Use Gradient. Front Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2018.00079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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32
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Gallien L, Zurell D, Zimmermann NE. Frequency and intensity of facilitation reveal opposing patterns along a stress gradient. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:2171-2181. [PMID: 29468034 PMCID: PMC5817155 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2017] [Revised: 12/13/2017] [Accepted: 12/26/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Disentangling the different processes structuring ecological communities is a long-standing challenge. In species-rich ecosystems, most emphasis has so far been given to environmental filtering and competition processes, while facilitative interactions between species remain insufficiently studied. Here, we propose an analysis framework that not only allows for identifying pairs of facilitating and facilitated species, but also estimates the strength of facilitation and its variation along environmental gradients. Our framework combines the analysis of both co-occurrence and co-abundance patterns using a moving window approach along environmental gradients to control for potentially confounding effects of environmental filtering in the co-abundance analysis. We first validate our new approach against community assembly simulations, and exemplify its potential on a large 1,134 plant community plots dataset. Our results generally show that facilitation intensity was strongest under cold stress, whereas the proportion of facilitating and facilitated species was higher under drought stress. Moreover, the functional distance between individual facilitated species and their facilitating species significantly changed along the temperature-moisture gradient, and seemed to influence facilitation intensity, although no general positive or general negative trend was discernible among species. The main advantages of our robust framework are as follows: It enables detecting facilitating and facilitated species in species-rich systems, and it allows identifying the directionality and intensity of facilitation in species pairs as well as its variation across long environmental gradients. It thus opens numerous opportunities for incorporating functional (and phylogenetic) information in the analysis of facilitation patterns. Our case study indicated high complexity in facilitative interactions across the stress gradient and revealed new evidence that facilitation, similarly to competition, can operate between functionally similar and dissimilar species. Extending the analyses to other taxa and ecosystems will foster our understanding how complex interspecific interactions promote biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laure Gallien
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
- Centre for Invasion BiologyDepartment of Botany and ZoologyStellenbosch UniversityMatielandSouth Africa
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
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33
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Rotics S, Turjeman S, Kaatz M, Resheff YS, Zurell D, Sapir N, Eggers U, Fiedler W, Flack A, Jeltsch F, Wikelski M, Nathan R. Wintering in Europe instead of Africa enhances juvenile survival in a long-distance migrant. Anim Behav 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.anbehav.2017.01.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Zurell D, Thuiller W, Pagel J, Cabral JS, Münkemüller T, Gravel D, Dullinger S, Normand S, Schiffers KH, Moore KA, Zimmermann NE. Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:2651-64. [PMID: 26872305 PMCID: PMC4972146 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2015] [Revised: 01/28/2016] [Accepted: 02/04/2016] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damaris Zurell
- Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553 Université J. Fourier BP 53, F-38000 Grenoble, France
- CNRS, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553 Université J. Fourier BP 53, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Jörn Pagel
- Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology, University of Hohenheim, August-v.Hartmann-Str. 3, D-70599 Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Juliano S Cabral
- Biodiversity, Macroecology and Conservation Biogeography, University Göttingen, Büsgenweg 2, D-37077, Goettingen, Germany
- Synthesis Centre of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Deutscher Platz 5e, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Tamara Münkemüller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553 Université J. Fourier BP 53, F-38000 Grenoble, France
- CNRS, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553 Université J. Fourier BP 53, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Dominique Gravel
- Université de Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, Canada. G5L 3A1
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria
| | - Signe Normand
- Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Katja H. Schiffers
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553 Université J. Fourier BP 53, F-38000 Grenoble, France
- CNRS, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA), UMR-CNRS 5553 Université J. Fourier BP 53, F-38000 Grenoble, France
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Georg Voigt-Straße 14-16, D-60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Kara A. Moore
- Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Niklaus E. Zimmermann
- Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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35
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Rotics S, Kaatz M, Resheff YS, Turjeman SF, Zurell D, Sapir N, Eggers U, Flack A, Fiedler W, Jeltsch F, Wikelski M, Nathan R. The challenges of the first migration: movement and behaviour of juvenile vs. adult white storks with insights regarding juvenile mortality. J Anim Ecol 2016; 85:938-47. [PMID: 27046512 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2015] [Accepted: 03/19/2016] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Migration conveys an immense challenge, especially for juvenile birds coping with enduring and risky journeys shortly after fledging. Accordingly, juveniles exhibit considerably lower survival rates compared to adults, particularly during migration. Juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), which are known to rely on adults during their first fall migration presumably for navigational purposes, also display much lower annual survival than adults. Using detailed GPS and body acceleration data, we examined the patterns and potential causes of age-related differences in fall migration properties of white storks by comparing first-year juveniles and adults. We compared juvenile and adult parameters of movement, behaviour and energy expenditure (estimated from overall dynamic body acceleration) and placed this in the context of the juveniles' lower survival rate. Juveniles used flapping flight vs. soaring flight 23% more than adults and were estimated to expend 14% more energy during flight. Juveniles did not compensate for their higher flight costs by increased refuelling or resting during migration. When juveniles and adults migrated together in the same flock, the juvenile flew mostly behind the adult and was left behind when they separated. Juveniles showed greater improvement in flight efficiency throughout migration compared to adults which appears crucial because juveniles exhibiting higher flight costs suffered increased mortality. Our findings demonstrate the conflict between the juveniles' inferior flight skills and their urge to keep up with mixed adult-juvenile flocks. We suggest that increased flight costs are an important proximate cause of juvenile mortality in white storks and likely in other soaring migrants and that natural selection is operating on juvenile variation in flight efficiency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shay Rotics
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Michael Kaatz
- Vogelschutzwarte Storchenhof Loburg e.V., Chausseestr. 18, D-39279, Loburg, Germany
| | - Yehezkel S Resheff
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904, Jerusalem, Israel.,Edmond and Lily Safra Center for Brain Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Sondra Feldman Turjeman
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Dynamic Macroecology, Department Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Nir Sapir
- Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology, The University of Haifa, 3498838, Haifa, Israel
| | - Ute Eggers
- Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Andrea Flack
- Department of Migration and Immuno-Ecology, Max-Planck-Institute for Ornithology, D-78315, Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, D-78468, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Department of Migration and Immuno-Ecology, Max-Planck-Institute for Ornithology, D-78315, Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, D-78468, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469, Potsdam, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), D-14195, Berlin, Germany.,ZALF, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Str. 84, D-15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration and Immuno-Ecology, Max-Planck-Institute for Ornithology, D-78315, Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, D-78468, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904, Jerusalem, Israel
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Zurell D, Zimmermann NE, Sattler T, Nobis MP, Schröder B. Effects of functional traits on the prediction accuracy of species richness models. DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Damaris Zurell
- Dynamic Macroecology; Landscape Dynamics; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Zürcherstrasse 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Niklaus E. Zimmermann
- Dynamic Macroecology; Landscape Dynamics; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Zürcherstrasse 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH; CH-8092 Zürich Switzerland
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute; Seerose 1 CH-6204 Sempach Switzerland
| | - Michael P. Nobis
- Dynamic Macroecology; Landscape Dynamics; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Zürcherstrasse 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Boris Schröder
- Environmental Systems Analysis; Institute of Geoecology; Technische Universität Braunschweig; Langer Kamp 19c D-38106 Braunschweig Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB); D-14195 Berlin Germany
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Thuiller W, Münkemüller T, Schiffers KH, Georges D, Dullinger S, Eckhart VM, Edwards TC, Gravel D, Kunstler G, Merow C, Moore K, Piedallu C, Vissault S, Zimmermann NE, Zurell D, Schurr FM. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics? Ecography 2014; 37:1155-1166. [PMID: 25722536 PMCID: PMC4338510 DOI: 10.1111/ecog.00836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/31/2014] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Tamara Münkemüller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Katja H Schiffers
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Damien Georges
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France ; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Dep. of Conservation Biology, Vegetation- and Landscape Ecology, Faculty Centre of Biodiversity, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna
| | | | - Thomas C Edwards
- US. Geological Survey, Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and Wildland Resources, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT 84322-5290, USA
| | - Dominique Gravel
- Université du Québec à Rimouski, Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Québec G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Georges Kunstler
- Irstea, UR Mountain Ecosystems, St-Martin-d'Hères, France ; Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
| | - Cory Merow
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, 21307-0028, MD, USA
| | - Kara Moore
- Center for Population Biology, Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Christian Piedallu
- AgroParisTech, UMR1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), ENGREF, Nancy Cedex, France ; INRA, UMR1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), Centre INRA de Nancy, Champenoux, France
| | - Steve Vissault
- Université du Québec à Rimouski, Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Québec G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland ; Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Frank M Schurr
- Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier, UMR-CNRS 5554, Université Montpellier II, 34095 Montpellier cedex 5, France ; Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology, University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
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Zurell D, Eggers U, Kaatz M, Rotics S, Sapir N, Wikelski M, Nathan R, Jeltsch F. Individual-based modelling of resource competition to predict density-dependent population dynamics: a case study with white storks. OIKOS 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.01294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Damaris Zurell
- Inst. of Biochemistry and Biology, Univ. of Potsdam; Maulbeerallee 2 DE-14469 Potsdam Germany
- Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Inst. WSL; Zürcherstrasse 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Ute Eggers
- Inst. of Biochemistry and Biology, Univ. of Potsdam; Maulbeerallee 2 DE-14469 Potsdam Germany
| | - Michael Kaatz
- Vogelschutzwarte Storchenhof Loburg e.V.; Chausseestr. 18 DE-39279 Loburg Germany
| | - Shay Rotics
- Dept of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior; The Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus; IL-91904 Jerusalem Israel
| | - Nir Sapir
- Dept of Migration and Immuno-Ecology; Max Planck Inst. for Ornithology; Schlossallee 2 DE-78315 Radolfzell Germany
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Dept of Migration and Immuno-Ecology; Max Planck Inst. for Ornithology; Schlossallee 2 DE-78315 Radolfzell Germany
- Dept of Biology; Konstanz Univ.; DE-78315 Konstanz Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Dept of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior; The Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus; IL-91904 Jerusalem Israel
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Inst. of Biochemistry and Biology, Univ. of Potsdam; Maulbeerallee 2 DE-14469 Potsdam Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Inst. of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB); DE-14195 Berlin Germany
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Jeltsch F, Bonte D, Pe'er G, Reineking B, Leimgruber P, Balkenhol N, Schröder B, Buchmann CM, Mueller T, Blaum N, Zurell D, Böhning-Gaese K, Wiegand T, Eccard JA, Hofer H, Reeg J, Eggers U, Bauer S. Integrating movement ecology with biodiversity research - exploring new avenues to address spatiotemporal biodiversity dynamics. Mov Ecol 2013; 1:6. [PMID: 25709820 PMCID: PMC4337763 DOI: 10.1186/2051-3933-1-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2012] [Accepted: 06/03/2013] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of 'movement ecology'. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide 'mobile links' between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through 'equalizing' and 'stabilizing' mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Jeltsch
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany ; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195 Germany
| | - Dries Bonte
- Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, Gent, 9000 Belgium
| | - Guy Pe'er
- Department of Conservation Biology, UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany
| | - Björn Reineking
- Biogeographical Modelling, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447 Germany ; Irstea, UR EMGR Écosystèmes Montagnards, 2 rue de la Papeterie-BP 76, St-Martin-d'Hères, F-38402 France
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- National Zoological Park, Smithsonian, Conservation Biology Institute, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA
| | - Niko Balkenhol
- Department of Forest Zoology and Forest Conservation, University of Göttingen, Buesgenweg 3, Göttingen, 37077 Germany
| | - Boris Schröder
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195 Germany ; Landscape Ecology, Technische Universität München, Emil-Ramann-Str. 6, 85354 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany ; Environmental Systems Analysis, Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, Braunschweig, 38106 Germany
| | - Carsten M Buchmann
- Department of Landscape Ecology, UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany
| | - Thomas Mueller
- National Zoological Park, Smithsonian, Conservation Biology Institute, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA ; Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 USA
| | - Niels Blaum
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Katrin Böhning-Gaese
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt (Main), 60325 Germany ; Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe Universität, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, Frankfurt (Main), 60438 Germany
| | - Thorsten Wiegand
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Permoserstr. 15, Leipzig, 04318 Germany
| | - Jana A Eccard
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, D-14195 Germany ; Department of Animal Ecology, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Universität Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 1, Potsdam, 14469 Germany
| | - Heribert Hofer
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW) in the Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V., Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, Berlin, 10315 Germany
| | - Jette Reeg
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ute Eggers
- Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Intitute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 2, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Silke Bauer
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, Wageningen, AB 6700 The Netherlands ; Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, Sempach, 6204 Switzerland
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Zurell D, Elith J, Schröder B. Predicting to new environments: tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions. DIVERS DISTRIB 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00887.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2022] Open
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Zurell D, Berger U, Cabral JS, Jeltsch F, Meynard CN, Münkemüller T, Nehrbass N, Pagel J, Reineking B, Schröder B, Grimm V. The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers. OIKOS 2010. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18284.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 214] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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