Trends of Cirrhosis-related Mortality in the USA during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Immunocompromised status and interrupted routine care may render patients with cirrhosis vulnerable to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A nationwide dataset that includes more than 99% of the decedents in the U.S. between April 2012 and September 2021 was used. Projected age-standardized mortality during the pandemic were estimated according to prepandemic mortality rates, stratified by season. Excess deaths were determined by estimating the difference between observed and projected mortality rates. A temporal trend analysis of observed mortality rates was also performed in 0.83 million decedents with cirrhosis between April 2012 and September 2021 was included. Following an increasing trend of cirrhosis-related mortality before the pandemic, with a semiannual percentage change (SAPC) of 0.54% [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.0-1.0%), p=0.036], a precipitous increase with seasonal variation occurred during the pandemic (SAPC 5.35, 95% CI: 1.9-8.9, p=0.005). Significantly increased mortality rates were observed in those with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), with a SAPC of 8.44 (95% CI: 4.3-12.8, p=0.001) during the pandemic. All-cause mortality of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease rose steadily across the entire study period with a SAPC of 6.79 (95% CI: 6.3-7.3, p<0.001). The decreasing trend of HCV-related mortality was reversed during the pandemic, while there was no significant change in HBV-related deaths. While there was significant increase in COVID-19-related deaths, more than 55% of the excess deaths were the indirect impact of the pandemic. We observed an alarming increase in cirrhosis-related deaths during the pandemic especially for ALD, with evidence in both direct and indirect impact. Our findings have implications on formulating policies for patients with cirrhosis.

Heavy daily alcohol intake at the population level predicts the weight of alcohol in cirrhosis burden worldwide

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Studies assessing alcohol as a population level risk factor for cirrhosis typically focus on per capita consumption. However, clinical studies indicate that daily intake is a strong predictor of alcoholic cirrhosis. We aimed to identify the determinants of alcohol's contribution to the global cirrhosis burden and to evaluate the influence of daily drinking on a population level.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive analysis of the WHO 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health. We categorized countries by heavy or moderate drinking based on daily consumption, using U.S. Department of Agriculture definitions of heavy drinking. Additional data on cirrhosis cofactors were also obtained. Uni- and multivariate models were fitted to identify independent predictors of the alcohol-attributable fraction of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

The WHO 2014 Report found that half of cirrhosis mortality worldwide is attributable to alcohol, approximating 60% in North America and Europe. In an integrative multivariate model, the designation of countries by moderate or heavy daily drinking had the strongest influence on the weight of alcohol in the cirrhosis burden. The relative contribution from alcohol increased by 11% with a transition from the moderate to heavy classification (p<0.001). Importantly, drinking patterns such as heavy episodic drinking and the type of alcohol did not independently predict the alcohol-attributable fraction of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Heavy daily drinking on a population level significantly influences the weight of alcohol in the cirrhosis burden. Reducing heavy drinking should be considered as an important target for public health monitoring and policies.

LAY SUMMARY

We carried out an analysis of the WHO 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health, and categorized countries by their level of drinking (heavy or moderate). We found that half of the global cirrhosis cases, and 60% in both North America and Europe are associated with alcohol intake. We concluded that on a population level heavy daily drinking significantly influences the impact of alcohol on the cirrhosis burden.