Effect of ambient ozone pollution on disease burden globally: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Exposure to ambient ozone pollution causes health loss and even death, and both are the main risk factors for the disease burden worldwide. We comprehensively evaluated the ozone pollution-related disease burden.

METHODS

First, numbers and age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were assessed globally and by sub-types in 2019. Furthermore, the temporal trend of the disease burden was explored by the linear regression model from 1990 to 2019. The cluster analysis was used to evaluate the changing pattern of related disease burden across Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions. Finally, the age-period-cohort (APC) model and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were used to predict the future disease burden in the next 25 years.

RESULT

Exposure to ozone pollution contributed to 365,222 deaths and 6,210,145 DALYs globally in 2019, which accounted for 0.65 % of deaths globally and 0.24 % of DALYs globally. The disease burden was consistently increasing with age. Males were high-risk populations and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were high-risk areas. The disease burden of ozone pollution varied considerably across the GBD regions and the countries. In 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs cases increased by 76.11 % and 56.37 %, respectively compared to those in 1990. The predicted results showed that the number of deaths cases and DALYs cases for both genders would still increase from 2020 to 2044.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, ambient ozone pollution has threatened public health globally. More proactive and effective strategic measures should be developed after considering global-specific circumstances.

Temporal Trends of Asthma Among Children in the Western Pacific Region From 1990 to 2045: Longitudinal Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Asthma has become one of the most common chronic conditions worldwide, especially among children. Recent findings show that the prevalence of childhood asthma has increased by 12.6% over the past 30 years, with >262 million people currently affected globally. The reasons for the growing asthma epidemic remain complex and multifactorial.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to provide an up-to-date analysis of the changing global and regional asthma prevalence, mortality, disability, and risk factors among children aged <20 years by leveraging the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Findings from this study can help inform priority areas for intervention to alleviate the rising burden of childhood asthma globally.

METHODS

The study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, concentrating on children aged 0 to 14 years with asthma. We conducted an in-depth analysis of asthma, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), across diverse demographics, such as region, age, sex, and sociodemographic index, spanning 1990 to 2019. We also projected the future burden of the disease.

RESULTS

Overall, in the Western Pacific Region, the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children increased slightly, from 3898.4 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3924 per 100,000 in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate of asthma also increased slightly, from 979.2 to 994.9 per 100,000. In contrast, the age-standardized death rate of asthma decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 per 100,000 and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 234.9 to 189.7 per 100,000. At the country level, Japan experienced a considerable decrease in the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children, from 6669.1 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5071.5 per 100,000 in 2019. Regarding DALYs, Japan exhibited a notable reduction, from 300.6 to 207.6 per 100,000. Malaysia also experienced a DALY rate reduction, from 188.4 to 163.3 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2019. We project that the burden of disease in countries other than Japan and the Philippines will remain relatively stable up to 2045.

CONCLUSIONS

The study indicates an increase in the prevalence and incidence of pediatric asthma, coupled with a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the Western Pacific Region between 1990 and 2019. These intricate phenomena appear to result from a combination of lifestyle shifts, environmental influences, and barriers to health care access. The findings highlight that nations such as Japan have achieved notable success in managing asthma. Overall, the study identified areas of improvement in view of persistent disease burden, underscoring the need for comprehensive collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of pediatric asthma throughout the region.

The Changing and Predicted Trends in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Burden in China, the United States, and India from 1990 to 2030

Background

This study analyzed the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China, the United States, and India from 1990 to 2019 and projected the trends for the next decade.

Methods

This study utilized the GBD 2019 to compare the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, and the proportion attributed to different risk factors in China, the United States, and India. Joinpoint models and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were employed to capture the changing trends in disease burden and forecast outcomes.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, China's age-standardized COPD incidence and mortality rates decreased by 29% and 70%, respectively. In the same period, India's rates decreased by 8% and 33%, while the United States saw an increase of 9% in COPD incidence and a 22% rise in mortality rates. Smoking and ambient particulate matter pollution are the two most significant risk factors for COPD, while household air pollution from solid fuels and low temperatures are the least impactful factors in the United States and India, respectively. The proportion of risk from household air pollution from solid fuels is higher in India than in China and the United States. Predictions for 2030 suggest that the age-standardized DALY rates, ASIR, and ASMR in the United States and India are expected to remain stable or decrease, while China's age-standardized incidence rate is projected to rise.

Conclusion

Over the past three decades, the incidence of COPD has been decreasing in China and India, while showing a slight increase in the United States. Smoking and ambient particulate matter pollution are the primary risk factors for men and women, respectively. The risk of household air pollution from solid fuels in India needs attention.

Burden of female breast cancer in India: estimates of YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs at national and subnational levels based on the national cancer registry programme

PURPOSE

Female breast cancer (BC) is the leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality in India, and accounted for 13.5% of new cancer cases and 10% of cancer-related deaths in 2020. This study aims to estimate and report the female BC burden in India at state level from 2012 to 2016 in terms of years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and to project the burden for the year 2025.

METHODS

The cancer incidence and mortality data from 28 population-based cancer registries were analysed. The mean mortality to incidence ratio was estimated, and mortality figures were adjusted for underreporting. The burden of female BC was estimated at national and subnational levels using Census data, World Health Organisation's lifetables, disability weights, and the DisMod-II tool. A negative binomial regression is employed to project burden for 2025.

RESULTS

The burden of BC among Indian women in 2016 was estimated to be 515.4 DALYs per 100,000 women after age standardization. The burden metrics at state level exhibited substantial heterogeneity. Notably, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, and Delhi had a higher burden of BC than states in the eastern and north-eastern regions. The projection for 2025 indicates to a substantial increase, reaching 5.6 million DALYs.

CONCLUSION

The female BC burden in India was significantly high in 2016 and is expected to substantially increase. Undertaking a multidisciplinary, context-specific approach for its prevention and control can address this rising burden.

Changes in the Prevalence, Incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in the United States Between 1990 and 2019

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to determine trends in the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) in the US across different states and age groups between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease database, this study analyzed the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of NAFLD in the US between 1990 and 2019. We computed relative percentage changes, performed Joinpoint regression analyses of trends, and compared these between states and age groups (5-19, 20-55, and more than 55 years old).

RESULTS

In the United States, the prevalence of NAFLD increased more than the global average over the study period (+ 30.7% vs. + 24.5%), especially in the 5-19-year-old age group. Among all states, Kansas, Washington, and California had the highest increase in prevalence and the District of Columbia followed by Massachusetts and North Carolina had the lowest increase in prevalence. The increase in incidence was greater in the US than the global average (+ 37.18% vs. + 7.28%). West Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky had the highest increase in incidence. The increase in DALYs was greater in the US compared to the global average (+ 57.15% vs. + 12.65%). Alaska, West Virginia, and Kentucky had the highest increase in DALYs. The increased incidence and DALYs were found in all states except in the District of Columbia.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of NAFLD in the US has increased more rapidly than the global average, especially in the pediatric population. South and Midwest states have the highest increase in prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of NAFLD. The District of Columbia was the only state that has decreased incidence and DALYs.

Burden of lung cancer attributed to particulate matter pollution in China: an epidemiological study from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden of lung cancer attributable to particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in China from 1990 to 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used to estimate the disease burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer attributed to PM2.5 over time in China.

METHODS

Joinpoint regression models were applied to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to assess the time trends and estimate the impact of PM2.5 on the overall disease burden of lung cancer. Furthermore, age-period-cohort models were conducted to assess the relationships between lung cancer DALYs attributed to PM2.5 exposure and age, calendar period and birth cohort trends in China from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Lung cancer DALYs attributable to household air pollution from solid fuels decreased with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 2.9 % per 100,000 population, while those attributable to ambient particular matter pollution (APE) increased (AAPC: -4.7 % per 100,000 population) over the past 30 years. The burden of lung cancer in terms of DALYs in males was higher than in females, and it demonstrated an age-dependent increase. The period and cohort effects also had significant impacts on the DALYs rates of lung cancer attributable to APE, indicating an overall increase in lung cancer DALYs for all age groups in each year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the need for effective strategies to reduce PM2.5 exposure in China, particularly from outdoor sources. Gender differences and age, period and cohort effects observed in the study provide valuable insights into long-term trends of lung cancer burden attributed to PM2.5.

Global Trends in the Incidence of Anxiety Disorders From 1990 to 2019: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Study

BACKGROUND

Anxiety disorders (ADs) are the most common mental illness with high prevalence, chronicity, and comorbidity. Despite rapid economic and cultural development, the global incidence of ADs continues to increase, with predominance in male individuals.

OBJECTIVE

To address the above issues, we analyzed the dynamic trends of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs from 1990 to 2019 and their different effects on age, period, and birth cohort and predicted the future trend of AD incidence.

METHODS

The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. A joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percent change in AD incidence, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence of ADs from 2020 to 2044.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence rate of ADs increased by 1.06% for both sexes, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) decreased by 0.12%. Joinpoint regression indicated that increments in average annual percent changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (0.068 vs 0.012) and ASDR (0.035 vs -0.015) for ADs globally were higher among male individuals than female individuals. The age-period-cohort analyses revealed that the relative risk (RR) of the incidence and DALYs of ADs among people of different sexes increased with age in adolescence and middle age and then decreased. For the period effect, the RR of incidence decreased, whereas the RR of DALYs increased in both sexes. Moreover, the RR of the incidence gradually increased and DALYs slowly decreased with birth year for both male and female individuals. New cases of ADs in male individuals are predicted to increase in the coming 25 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided the changing trend of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs in the past 3 decades, indicating that early prevention and effective control cannot be ignored. We analyzed the age-period-cohort effect of potential trends in ADs and predicted future incidence trends. The results suggest that we should take active intervention measures, focusing on high-risk groups and developing effective management and control policies to reduce the global burden of disease.

Estimating the disability adjusted life years associated with COVID-19 in Iran for the first 2 years of the pandemic

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on 11 March 2020. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality, allowing for comprehensive comparisons of the population. The purpose of this study was to estimate DALYs due to COVID-19 in Iran for the first 2 years of the pandemic.

Methods

DALYs were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLLs) and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) associated with COVID-19 in Iran from 19 February 2020 to 20 March 2022. The life expectancy for COVID-19 YLL estimations was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study.

Results

There were 15,639,243 outpatients and 1,170,602 hospitalized confirmed cases, of which 120,965 deaths were as a direct result of COVID-19. DALYs were estimated to be 2,376,552. Overall, YLL contributed to 99.34% of the DALYs, while the remaining 0.66% was attributed to YLD.

Conclusion

COVID-19 had a significant impact on population health in Iran during the first 2 years of the pandemic; this study provides a comprehensive depiction of COVID-19's burden and is helpful for comparing its impact with other diseases in the population and across populations.

Global, national, and regional burden of acute myeloid leukemia among 60-89 years-old individuals: insights from a study covering the period 1990 to 2019

Background

Our study examined the global, national, and regional trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with older people's acute myeloid leukemia (AML) over a 30 years period. AML, which predominantly affects individuals aged 60-89, is known for its severity and unfavorable prognosis. By providing insights into the growing burden of AML, our research highlights the urgent need for effective interventions and support at various levels.

Methods

In this study, we analyzed older people with AML aged 60-89 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for 2019. Our goal was to assess trends and characteristics by examining the incidence rate, mortality rate, DALYs, and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). We aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the disease's trajectory and development.

Results

In 2019, the older age group of 60 to 89 years reported 61,559 new cases of AML, with the corresponding number of deaths being 53,620, and the estimated DALYs standing at 990,656. Over the last 30 years, the incidence rate of AML in this age bracket increased by 1.67 per 100,000 people, the mortality rate rose by 1.57 per 100,000 people, and the rate of DALYs, indicative of disease burden, climbed by 1.42 per 100,000 people. High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, particularly high-income North America and Australia, had the highest incidence rates. Germany had the highest incidence rate among the 204 countries analyzed, while Monaco reported the highest mortality and DALY rates. Smoking, high body mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and formaldehyde were identified as significant risk factors associated with mortality from older people with AML in 2019.

Conclusion

Our study showed that the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of AML in the older population were strongly correlated with the SDI, and these rates have been steadily increasing. This had become an increasingly serious global health issue, particularly in areas with a high SDI. We highlighted the urgency to focus more on this disease and called for the prompt implementation of appropriate preventive and control measures.

Persistence of severe global inequalities in the burden of Hypertension Heart Disease from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

AIMS

Assessing the global burden and health inequalities of Hypertension Heart Disease (HHD) during the period from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019, focusing on the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors worldwide. Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data related to HHD are extracted from the 2019 GBD. Inequality Slope Index (SII) and Concentration Index are calculated to assess health inequalities across regions and countries.

RESULTS

The total DALYs for HHD reached 21.51 million, demonstrating a substantial increase of 54.25% compared to the figures recorded in 1990, while the age-standardized DALY rates per 100,000 population for HHD in 2019 showed a notable decline to 268.19 (95% UI 204.57, 298.07), reflecting a significant decrease of 26.4% compared to the rates observed in 1990. The DALYs rate of hypertensive heart disease increases with age. Countries with moderate SDI accounted for 38.72% of the global burden of HHD in terms of DALYs. The highest age-standardized DALY rates (per 100,000) are predominantly concentrated in underdeveloped areas. In 1990 and 2019, the SII (per 100,000 population) for DALYs were - 121.6398 (95% CI -187.3729 to -55.90684) and - 1.592634 (95% CI -53.11027 to 49.925) respectively. The significant decline suggests a reduction in the inequality of age-standardized burden of HHD between high-income and low-income countries during this period.

CONCLUSION

The unequal prevalence of HHD across different populations can hinder the achievement of the "health for all" objective. Persistent disparities in HHD have been observed globally over the past thirty years. It is crucial to prioritize efforts towards reducing avoidable health inequalities associated with hypertension-related heart disease, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.

Global burden of non-optimal temperature attributable stroke: The long-term trends, population growth and aging effects

Since the 20th century, the world has undergone climate change, population growth and population aging, which may result in alterations in the epidemiology of non-optimal temperature-associated strokes. We employed multiple methodologies and data from the global burden of disease 2019 to unveil the long-term curvilinear trends in strokes attributed to non-optimal temperature and the impact of aging and population growth on its changing epidemiology. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of strokes attributable to low temperature had been decreasing, but from 2016, the continued downward trend in ASDR disappeared and began to remain stable. On the contrary, the ASDR of strokes attributable to high temperature continued to increase. The high socio-demographic index (SDI) region experienced the fastest decreased trend. The disease burden of stroke attributable to low temperature is increased by aging in 178 countries (87.25%), compared with 130 (63.73%) for high temperature. After excluding aging and population growth, the DALY rate for strokes attributed to high temperature was increasing in 87 countries and territories (42.64%). The disease burden of strokes attributed to low temperature is far greater than that of high temperature in absolute figures. However, globally, there is a significant trend toward an increase in strokes attributed to high temperature. Social development has largely offset the burden of strokes attributed to low temperature, but most regions of the world are equally affected by strokes attributed to high temperature. Simultaneously, in the framework of climate change, aging is also largely hindering stroke prevention efforts.

Mental health and neglected tropical diseases - the neglected dimension of burden: identifying the challenges and understanding the burden

Mental health co-morbidity and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) has been highlighted as a major component of the ill health. The impact of mental illness is considered to be significantly underestimated in the calculations of the overall Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). This commentary discusses the DALY burden of anxiety, depression and associated stigma of NTDs. The economic losses incurred as a result of mental health conditions is assessed, and the impact on caregivers and families. It recommends that mental health care is incorporated into NTDs programme planning and implementation. Priority research is the estimation of the NTD burden of depressive and anxiety disorders and neuropsychiatric conditions of NTDs and an evaluation of the economic costs of mental illness derived from NTDs causation.

Global, regional and national burden of orofacial clefts from 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Orofacial clefts are the most common congenital malformation, but the global burden and trends of orofacial clefts have not been comprehensively analysed. The aim of this study was to assess the global incidence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of orofacial clefts by countries, regions, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

The data on orofacial clefts were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The incidence, deaths and DALYs were analysed by countries, regions, sex and SDI. Age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the burden and temporal trend of orofacial clefts. The association between EAPC and the human development index was assessed.

RESULTS

Globally, the incidence, deaths and DALYs of orofacial clefts decreased from 1990 to 2019. The high SDI region showed the biggest downward trend in incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, along with the lowest age-standardized death rate and DALY rate. Some countries, such as Suriname and Zimbabwe, experienced increased death rate and DALY rate over time. The age-standardized death rate and DALY rate were negatively associated with the level of socioeconomic development.

CONCLUSION

Global achievement is evident in the control of the burden of orofacial clefts. The future focus of prevention should be on low-income countries, such as South Asia and Africa, by increasing healthcare resources and improving quality.KEY MESSAGESThis is the most recent estimate of the global epidemiology of orofacial clefts, with some countries not previously assessed.The global burden of orofacial clefts showed downward trends from 1990 to 2019; however, some low-income countries are still suffering from increasing burdens.Effective measures should be taken to reduce the burden of orofacial clefts in the uncontrolled regions.

Health burden of unbalanced fatty acids intake from 1990 to 2019: A global analysis

BACKGROUND

Unbalanced fatty acids intake is associated with a range of health outcomes; however, the impact on human health remains unclear globally. We aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the health effect of unbalanced fatty acids intake on a global scale.

METHODS

We analyzed the trends of summary exposure value (SEV) and the attributable burden of unbalanced fatty acids intake, including diet low in polyunsaturated fatty acids (low PUFAs), diet low in seafood omega-3 fatty acids (low seafood-(ω-3)-PUFAs), and diet high in trans fatty acids (high TFAs) from 1990 to 2019 using data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

FINDINGS

The global fatty acids intake was far from the optimal level. High-income North America had the highest SEV of diet of high TFAs, while less-developed regions located in Saharan Africa had the highest SEVs of low PUFAs and low seafood-(ω-3)-PUFAs. The attributable burden was unequally distributed to less-developed regions. Males had lower SEVs but higher attributable burden than females and this gender gap was particularly pronounced before the age of 59. The young population had a higher SEV of diet of low PUFAs, comparable SEV of low seafood-(ω-3)-PUFAs but lower SEV of high TFAs than the elderly population.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underpinned the high prevalence of unbalanced fatty acids intake worldwide and provided evidence-based guidance for identifying at-risk populations and developing effective strategies to improve fatty acids intake in the future.

FUNDING

The study was funded by Shanxi Province "136" Revitalization Medical Project Construction Funds and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Thyroid cancer burden and risk factors in China from 1990-2019: a systematic analysis using the global burden of disease study

Background

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common endocrine system malignancy with a rapidly increasing incidence in China. Epidemiological data on TC at the national level are lacking. This study aimed to quantify the TC disease burden in China between 1990 and 2019 and evaluate the current status and trends of the disease burden attributed to a high body mass index (HBMI).

Methods

The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study dataset was used to explore the TC disease burden. Age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), deaths (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were considered and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated as a measure of the average change in age-standardized rates. The trend in TC-related mortality and DALYs attributed to an HBMI, accounting for different age groups and sexes, was examined.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, the ASDR and DALYs for TC decreased by 0.02/100000 and 1.17/100000, respectively. The ASPR and ASIR increased by 9.88/100000 and 1.04/100000, respectively. The EAPC for ASDR, age-standardized rates of DALYs, ASPR, and ASIR were 0.06 (95% CI: -0.09, 0.21), -0.20 (95% CI: -0.31, -0.10), 3.52 (95% CI: 3.35, 3.68), and 2.73 (95% CI: 2.58, 2.88), respectively. TC-related deaths, DALYs, and their prevalence and incidence in China increased by 118%, 350%, 81%, and 290%, respectively. The disease burden of TC was higher among male than female patients in different age groups, with varying distributions. The disease burden attributed to HBMI gradually increased over the past 30 years according to age-standardized DALYs, particularly in male patients.

Conclusion

The TC burden has increased in China over the past 30 years, and population aging poses a challenge to TC prevention and control. HBMI has become an important factor in the TC disease burden and further research should focus on reducing the disease burden among Chinese male patients with TC.

The Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Diet High in Red Meat in 204 Countries and Territories, 1999-2019: An updated Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

SCOPE

The study aims to estimates of the deaths and disability-adjusted life year rates (DALYs) of a diet high in red meat from 1999 to 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The deaths and disability-adjusted life year rates (DALYs) attributable to diet high in red meat were analyzed by sex, age, and geographical location and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) from 1999 to 2019.

RESULTS

Globally, deaths and DALYs attributable to diets high in red meat have steadily increased between 1999 and 2019. The global deaths attributable to diet high in red meat have increased from 319,338 (95% UI 190,418 to 441,406) in 1999 to 411,066 (95% UI 250,993 to 573,864) in 2019 for females, and have increased from 335,711 (95% UI 183,491 to 472,091) in 1999 to 484,608 (95% UI 282,347 to 686,919) in 2019 for males. The global DALYs attributable to diet high in red meat have increased from 7,763,803 (95% UI 5,023,428 to 10,370,477) in 1999 to 10,164,451 (95% UI 6,816,205 to 13,348,860) in 2019 for females, and have increased from 9,564,377 (95% UI 5,528,491 to 13,231,311) in 1999 to 13,696,622 (95% UI 8,669,245 to 18,725,223) in 2019 for males.

CONCLUSION

Globally, since 1999, deaths and DALYs caused by diets high in red meat have steadily increased.

The national, regional, and global impact of glaucoma as reported in the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Introduction

We investigated the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of glaucoma.

Methods

The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was measured to assess trends in the age-standardized DALY rate from 1990 to 2019.

Results

The global age-standardized DALY rate of glaucoma decreased with an EAPC of -1.00. The age-standardized DALY rate decreased least in high-SDI regions. Eastern sub-Saharan Africa had highest age-standardized DALY rate in 2019. At the national level, Mali had the highest age-standardized DALY rate in 2019.

Conclusions

Although the global burden of glaucoma has decreased, the burden remain high in regions with low SDI values and in sub-Saharan Africa.

Global burden of neoplasms attributable to specific occupational carcinogens over 30 years: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to analyze the global burden of occupational neoplasms from various epidemiological perspectives.

STUDY DESIGN

In this cross-sectional study, secondary analyses were conducted to assess the burden of neoplasms attributable to occupational carcinogens and their distribution characteristics using data from GBD 2019 and the World Bank database.

METHODS

Based on the GBD 2019 and the World Bank database, we analyzed the global burden of occupational neoplasms including the age-period-cohort model, decomposition analysis, health inequality analysis, and panel model. All analyses were conducted in R (version 4.0.3) and Joinpoint (version 4.9.1).

RESULTS

The absolute number of neoplasms burden attributable to occupational carcinogens has continued to rise over 30 years. In 2019, occupational neoplasms caused 333,867 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 263,491 to 404,641] mortalities and 6,964,775 (95% UI: 5,467,884 to 8,580,431) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. Greenland, Monaco, the Netherlands, and Andorra suffered the highest burden. The burden was higher in countries with a higher sociodemographic index. The age effect was prominent in the elderly, and the 1925 birth cohort had the highest cohort effect. Population growth was the most significant driver of the mortalities (89%) and DALYs (111%) change. Moreover, the proportion of urban population was significantly positively associated with the disease burden, while GDP per capita was negatively correlated with the disease burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of occupational neoplasms was unevenly distributed across locations and populations. The need for rational allocation of healthcare resources was urgent.

Associations of air pollution and greenness with global burden of breast cancer: an ecological study

Despite the significance of the associations of air pollution and greenness with the risk of breast cancer, this topic has not been investigated on a global scale. We conducted an ecological study using 7 years of data from 162 countries. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incidence data were used to represent the breast cancer disease burden. Particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were adopted as our exposures. We employed generalized linear mixed models to explore the relationship between air pollution and greenness on breast cancer disease burden. The rate ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) indicate the effect size. There is a positive association between air pollution and the burden of breast cancer disease. Contrarily, per interquartile range increment in NDVI was negatively associated with DALYs and incidence. In terms of air pollutants and breast cancer, NDVI seems to have a significant influence on the relationship between these two conditions. A higher amount of greenness helps to alleviate the negative association of air pollution on breast cancer. PM2.5 and O3 play a mediating role in the relationship between greenness and breast cancer disease burden. In areas with higher levels of greenness, there is a possibility that the inverse association between air pollutants and the burden of breast cancer may be influenced.

Burden and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of disease study 2019

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced a surge of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over the past two decades. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), in this study we have estimated the burden and attributable risk factors of COPD across SSA countries between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

COPD burden and its attributable risk factors were estimated using data from the 2019 GBD. Percentage change was estimated to show the trend of COPD estimates from 1990 to 2019. COPD estimates attributable by risk factors were also reported to ascertain the risk factor that brings the greatest burden by sex and locations (at country and regions level).

Findings

In 2019, all-age prevalent cases of COPD in SSA were estimated to be 10.3 million (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 9.7 million to 10.9 million) showing an increase of 117% compared with the number of all-age COPD cases in 1990. From 1990 to 2019, SSA underwent an increased percentage change in all-age YLDs due to COPD ranging from 41% in Lesotho to 203% in Equatorial Guinea. The largest premature mortality due to COPD was reported from Central SSA accounting for 729 subjects (95% UI, 509-1078). The highest rate of DALYs attributable to COPD was observed in Lesotho. Household air pollution from solid fuel was the primary contributor of the age standardized YLDs, death rate, and DALYs rate per 100,000 population.

Interpretation

The prevalence of COPD in SSA has had a steady increase over the past three decades and has progressively become a major public health burden across the region. Household air pollution from solid fuel is the primary contributor to COPD related burden, and its percentage contribution showed a similar trend to the reduction of COPD attributed age-standardized DALY rate. The methodological limitations of surveys and datapoints included in the GBD need to be considered when interpreting these associations.

Funding

There are no specific fundings received for this study. The Global Burden of Disease study was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Informing ASR Treatment Practices in a Florida Aquifer through a Human Health Risk Approach

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) can augment water supplies and hydrologic flows under varying climatic conditions. However, imposing drinking water regulations on ASR practices, including pre-treatment before injection into the aquifer, remains arguable. Microbial inactivation data-Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, poliovirus type 1 and Cryptosporidium parvum-were used in a human health risk assessment to identify how the storage time of recharged water in the Floridan Aquifer enhances pathogen inactivation, thereby mitigating the human health risks associated with ingestion. We used a quantitative microbial risk assessment to evaluate the risks for a gastrointestinal infection (GI) and the associated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per person per year. The risk of developing a GI infection for drinking water no longer exceeded the suggested annual risk threshold (1 × 10-4) by days 31, 1, 52 and 80 for each pathogen, respectively. DALYs per person per year no longer exceeded the World Health Organization threshold (1 × 10-6) by days 27, <1, 43 and 72. In summary, storage time in the aquifer yields a significant reduction in health risk. The findings emphasize that considering microbial inactivation, caused by storage time and geochemical conditions within ASR storage zones, is critical for recharge water treatment processes.

Changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration among under-5 children from 1990 to 2019

Background

To evaluate the changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration (FBA) among children under 5 years old at regional, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

Data on FBA was derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 database on pulmonary aspiration and foreign body in airway. The means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The temporal trends were represented by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) using Joinpoint regression.

Results

Globally, FBA caused 109.6 (95% UI: 69.5, 175.7) per 100,000 incidence and 317.9 (95% UI: 270.7, 372.4) per 100,000 DALYs under 5 years old in 2019. Many European countries (such as Italy, Netherlands, Iceland, etc.) showed a high incidence rate, but did not cause a large disease burden (DALYs all less than 200 per 100,000). Compared to 1990, although a decrease in both incidence and DALYs occurred in 2019, the Joinpoint regression showed an increasing trend in incidence rate from 2014 to 2019 [APC: both (2.10), female (2.25), male (1.98), P < 0.05)], especially China, Netherlands, and Malta. Despite the lower incidence rate in early neonatal group and middle SDI areas, they instead resulted in higher DALYs than other age groups and areas.

Conclusion

Although declines occurred in incidence and DALYs of FBA among children under 5 years of age from 1990 to 2014, an upward trend began to emerge from 2014 to 2019. The incidence and DALY rates were correlated with age and SDI. Increased efforts are needed to improve the necessary monitoring and reporting systems, hazard assessment, and public education activities.

Global, regional, and national burden of digestive diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The global burden of digestive diseases has been rising in the last 30 years. The rates and trends of incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for digestive diseases need to be investigated.

Methods

We extracted the data on overall digestive diseases and by cause between 1990-2019 from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 website, including the absolute number and the corresponding age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), deaths (ASDR), and DALYs (ASDALYs).

Results

Globally, the incident cases, deaths, and DALYs of digestive diseases in 2019 increased by 74.44, 37.85, and 23.46%, respectively, compared with that in 1990, with an increasing ASIR of 0.09%, as well as decreasing ASDR and ASDALYs of 1.38 and 1.32% annually. The sociodemographic index (SDI) of overall digestive diseases showed a slight increase in ASIR from low to middle-low regions. The downtrend in ASDR and ASDALYs was found in all SDI regions. The burden of incidence was higher in females, while the burden of deaths and DALYs was higher in males for the overall digestive diseases and most causes. The estimated annual percentage changes were significantly associated with the baseline ASIR, ASDR, and ASDALYs for the overall digestive diseases, and the negative correlations between ASDR, ASDALYs, and human development index both in 1990 (R = -0.68, R = -0.69) and 2019 (R = -0.71, R = -0.73) were noticed.

Conclusion

The findings indicate that digestive diseases remain a significant public health burden, with substantial variation across countries, sexes, and age groups. Therefore, implementing age, gender, and country-specific policies for early screening and targeted interventions could significantly reduce the global burden of digestive diseases.

Breast cancer epidemiology and sociodemographic differences in BRICS-plus countries from 1990 to 2019: An age period cohort analysis

Background

Breast cancer (BC) is a major health concern in the BRICS-plus, a group of developing nations consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian countries, with nearly half of the world's population. This study aims to identify potential risk factors contributing to the burden of BC by assessing its epidemiological and socio-demographic changes.

Methods

Data on BC outcomes were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Survey. The age-period-cohort (APC) modeling technique was used to evaluate the nonlinear impacts of age, cohort, and period on BC outcomes and reported risk attributable mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate changes between 1990 and 2019.

Results

In 2019, there were 0.90 million female BC cases and 0.35 million deaths in the BRICS-plus region, with China and India having the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths, followed by Pakistan. Lesotho experienced the highest annualized rates of change (AROC: 2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99) in the past three decades. Birth cohorts' impact on BC varies greatly between the BRICS-plus nations, with Pakistan suffering the largest risk increase in the most recent cohort. High body mass index (BMI), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and a diet high in red meat contributed to the highest death and DALYs rates in most BRICS-plus nations in 2019, and there was a strong negative link between SDI and death and DALYs rate.

Conclusions

The study found that the burden of BC varies significantly between BRICS-plus regions. Thus, BRICS-plus nations should prioritise BC prevention, raise public awareness, and implement screening efficiency measures to reduce the burden of BC in the future, as well as strengthen public health policies and initiatives for important populations based on their characteristics and adaptability.

The burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: a longitudinal analysis from the global burden of disease dataset 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are one of the main causes of disability among adults globally. The burden of MSK disorders varies greatly between different regions and is the highest in low- and middle income- countries. This study sought to investigate trends in the burden of MSK disorders across the MENA region, utilizing the GBD 2019 dataset.

METHODS

This ecological study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to report on the burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019. Our analysis involved descriptive statistics and sociodemographic trends and did not employ any specific statistical analyses. Using age-standardized rates of prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we reported trends in the burden of MSK disorders, as well as national variation between different countries. Furthermore, we analyzed trends in risk factors contributing to MSK disorders by age and gender.

RESULTS

The longitudinal analysis from 1990 to 2019 showed an increase in the age-standardized rate for prevalence and DALYs of MSK disorders by 5% and 4.80%, respectively. Low back pain continued to be the most prevalent MSK condition, while RA and other MSK disorders had the largest percentage increase for DALYs between 1990 and 2019. The study found that Afghanistan had the lowest age standardized DALYs rate attributed to MSK disorders, while Iran, Turkey, and Jordan had the highest. Further, Syria showed the most dramatic decrease while Saudi Arabia had the most notable increase in age standardized DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, occupational risks, high body mass index, and tobacco smoking were the main risk factors for MSK disorders, with occupational risks being the largest contributor, and between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the contribution of occupational risks but an increase in the contribution of high body mass index as a risk factor.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the significant burden of MSK disorders in the MENA region, with various risk factors contributing to its increasing prevalence in recent decades. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying factors and potential interventions that could improve health outcomes. Addressing MSK disorders should be a public health priority in the region, and efforts should be made to develop effective strategies to prevent and manage this debilitating condition.

The global burden and trends of four major types of heart disease, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

The global burden of heart disease is severe and increasing in the coming years. This study aims to analyze the global burden of heart disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), and non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVHD) were selected and analyzed from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

METHODS

The prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years and their corresponding age-standardized rates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In addition, estimated annual percentage change was calculated to better assess epidemiological trends. In addition, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis using the Nordpred package in R program to predict death trends over the next 20 years.

RESULTS

Globally, the prevalence of four heart diseases (RHD, IHD, HHD, and NRVHD) increased by 70.5%, 103.5%, 137.9%, and 110.0% compared with 1990, respectively. The deaths cases of RHD decreased by 15.6%, whereas IHD, HHD, and NRVHD increased by 60.4%, 76.6%, and 110.6%. Compared with absolute values, their corresponding age-standardized rates only showed a slight increase trend or even decreased in some areas with high sociodemographic index. In the next 20 years, the absolute values of deaths will continue to increase, whereas their age-standardized rates of deaths will flatten out.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the absolute values of heart disease have increased over the past 30 years and will continue to increase over the next 20 years. Targeted prevention and control strategies and measures need to be developed and improved to reduce this burden.

The burden of disease due to COVID-19 in Sweden 2020-2021: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) study

BACKGROUND

The burden of COVID-19 disease can be measured in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which is composed of two components: the years of life lost through premature death (YLL) and the number of years lived with disability (YLD), adjusted for level of disability. This study measured DALYs due to COVID-19 in Sweden and compared it to the burden of other diseases.

METHODS

The methodology used in the calculation of DALYs was based on the Global Burden of Disease guidelines. The number of patients diagnosed with mild/moderate, severe or critical COVID-19 and/or post-COVID-19 condition between March 2020 and October 2021 was extracted from national registries and used for YLD calculations. In addition, the numbers of death due to COVID-19 in different age groups were used for the YLL calculation.

RESULTS

During the study period, 152,877 DALYs were lost to COVID-19 in Sweden, 99.3% of which was attributed to YLL. Loss of DALYs occurred mainly among the elderly, with 66.8% of DALYs attributed to individuals >70 years old. Compared to other diseases, the burden of COVID-19 in 2020 ranked as the eighth leading cause of DALY lost.

CONCLUSIONS

Similar to other countries, the burden of COVID-19 in Sweden was concentrated mainly among the elderly, who contributed most of the DALY lost due to premature mortality. Yet, DALY loss remained lower for COVID-19 than for several other diseases. The contribution of YLD to DALYs lost was minimal. However empirical data on the occurrence and disability of post-COVID-19 condition are scarce, and YLD may therefore be underestimated.

National, subnational and risk attributed burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Iran from 1990 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Data on the distribution of the burden of diseases is vital for policymakers for the appropriate allocation of resources. In this study, we report the geographical and time trends of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) in Iran from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global burden of the Disease (GBD) study 2019.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 study to report the burden of CRDs through disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, prevalence, Years of Life lost (YLL), and Years Lost to Disability (YLD). Moreover, we reported the burden attributed to the risk factors with evidence of causation at national and subnational levels. We also performed a decomposition analysis to determine the roots of incidence changes. All data were measured as counts and age-standardized rates (ASR) divided by sex and age group.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASR of deaths, incidence, prevalence, and DALYs attributed to CRDs in Iran were 26.9 (23.2 to 29.1), 932.1 (799.7 to 1091.5), 5155.4 (4567.2 to 5859.6) and 587,911 (521,418 to 661,392) respectively. All burden measures were higher in males than females, but in older age groups, CRDs were more incident in females than males. While all crude numbers increased, all ASRs except for YLDs decreased over the studied period. Population growth was the main contributor to the changes in incidence at a national and subnational levels. The ASR of mortality in the province (Kerman) with the highest death rate (58.54 (29.42 to 68.73) was four times more than the province (Tehran) with the lowest death rate (14.52 (11.94 to 17.64)). The risk factors which imposed the most DALYs were smoking (216 (189.9 to 240.8)), ambient particulate matter pollution (117.9 (88.1 to 149.4)), and high body mass index (BMI) (57 (36.3 to 81.8)). Smoking was also the main risk factor in all provinces.

CONCLUSION

Despite the overall decrease in ASR of burden measures, the crude counts are rising. Moreover, the ASIR of all CRDs except asthma is increasing. This suggests that the overall incidence of CRDs will continue to grow in the future, which calls for immediate action to reduce exposure to the known risk factors. Therefore, expanded national plans by policymakers are essential to prevent the economic and human burden of CRDs.

High-Resolution PM2.5 Emissions and Associated Health Impact Inequalities in an Indian District

Health and livelihood impacts from ambient air pollution among populations in developing countries are disproportional. These disparities are often overlooked due to a lack of information on microlevel emission data, especially in smaller cities and rural areas. The current work in an Indian district, Saharanpur, proposes the use of novel data sets to estimate microlevel emissions from air-polluting infrastructure sectors in urban and rural areas for use in pollutant transport models. Health impacts estimated based on the surface PM_2.5 concentration suggest that the rate of premature deaths is 158 (95% CI: 122-163) and 143 (95% CI: 65-151) deaths per 100 000 people in urban and rural areas, respectively. Sixty-eight percent of the 6372 (95% CI: 3321-6987) annual premature deaths occurs in rural areas. Depicting higher contribution-exposure disparities among socioeconomic groups, the study observed that compared to their contribution to air pollution, low socioeconomic status (SES) groups in the region experience 6,7, 7, and 26% more premature deaths from PM_2.5 exposure for industries, household cooking fuel burning, open waste burning, and transportation, respectively. The majority of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the study domain are observed in economically weaker worker categories. Reduced income due to the loss of these life years will significantly impact these groups due to their dependence on daily wages for basic life necessities. Microlevel pollution mitigation policies with a focus on these inequalities are critical for promoting environmental equity and justice.

Burden and risk factors of chronic respiratory diseases in Nepal, 1990-2019: An analysis of the global burden of diseases study

Background and Aims

Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) substantially contribute to morbidity and mortality globally and in Nepal. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the trend and the burden of CRDs in Nepal. This study reports the trend of the burden and contribution of major risk factors to CRDs in Nepal from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

This study is an observational study using publicly available data from Global Burden of Disease 2019 estimations for Nepal. The age-standardized and age-specific prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors for CRDs in Nepal were extracted to measure the burden and its trend. The data are presented as percentages or as rates per 100,000 population.

Results

The age-standardized incidence rate of CRDs in Nepal in 2019 was 913.6 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 828.7-1000.1), which was an increase of 7.7% from 848.6 per 100,000 (95% UI: 780.2-918.2) in 1990. However, the age-standardized prevalence rate [4453/100,000 (4234.2-4671.8) in 1990; 4457.1/100,000 (4255.2-4666.8) in 2019] was almost stagnant. Most CRDs attributed to deaths and DALYs were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Conclusions

Air pollution and smoking are the main risk factors for DALYs due to CRDs in Nepal. This surging burden of the incidence rate of CRDs in Nepal calls for more effective actions to curb the risk factors and diseases.

Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data

AIM

We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings.

RESULTS

Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Māori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Cost-effectiveness of childhood cancer treatment in Egypt: Lessons to promote high-value care in a resource-limited setting based on real-world evidence

BACKGROUND

Childhood cancer in low-and middle-income countries is a global health priority, however, the perception that treatment is unaffordable has potentially led to scarce investment in resources, contributing to inferior survival. In this study, we analysed real-world data about the cost-effectiveness of treating 8886 children with cancer at a large resource-limited paediatric oncology setting in Egypt, between 2013 and 2017, stratified by cancer type, stage/risk, and disease status.

METHODS

Childhood cancer costs (USD 2019) were calculated from a health-system perspective, and 5-year overall survival was used to represent clinical effectiveness. We estimated cost-effectiveness as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (cost/DALY) averted, adjusted for utility decrement for late-effect morbidity and mortality.

FINDINGS

For all cancers combined, cost/DALY averted was $1384 (0.5 × GDP/capita), which is very cost-effective according to WHO-CHOICE thresholds. Ratio of cost/DALY averted to GDP/capita varied by cancer type/sub-type and disease severity (range: 0.1-1.6), where it was lowest for Hodgkin lymphoma, and retinoblastoma, and highest for high-risk acute leukaemia, and high-risk neuroblastoma. Treatment was cost-effective (ratio <3 × GDP/capita) for all cancer types/subtypes and risk/stage groups, except for relapsed/refractory acute leukaemia, and relapsed/progressive patients with brain tumours, hepatoblastoma, Ewing sarcoma, and neuroblastoma. Treatment cost-effectiveness was affected by the high costs and inferior survival of advanced-stage/high-risk and relapsed/progressive cancers.

INTERPRETATION

Childhood cancer treatment is cost-effective in a resource-limited setting in Egypt, except for some relapsed/progressive cancer groups. We present evidence-based recommendations and lessons to promote high-value in care delivery, with implications on practice and policy.

FUNDING

Egypt Cancer Network; NIHR School for Primary Care Research; ALSAC.

Trends of national and sub-national burden attributed to kidney dysfunction risk factor in Iran: 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Kidney dysfunction is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease. Herein, we aimed to describe the attributable burden of kidney dysfunction at the national and sub-national levels in Iran.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were extracted on the deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, and years lived with disability attributed to the risk factor of kidney dysfunction by age and sex at the national and provincial levels from 1990-2019. Also, risk exposure was reported by summary exposure value (SEV) with a range of 0 to 100. The estimated values were based on a comparative risk assessment framework.

RESULTS

In 2019, the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs rate attributable to kidney dysfunction were 58.2 (95% uncertainty interval of 48.8-68.1) and 1127.2 (981.1-1282.7) per 100,000 population in Iran, respectively. Also, the Sistan and Baluchistan province (1729.3 [1478.3-2006.4]) and the province of Tehran (681.9 [571.4-809.8]) had the greatest and lowest age-standardized DALYs rates, respectively. Nationally, SEVs increased from 22.8 to 26.2. The age-standardized burden attributable to kidney dysfunction had a positive association with age advancement. The attributable age-standardized deaths and DALYs rates in all socio-demographic index regions decreased from 1990-2019. Also, the highest and lowest attributable age-standardized DALYs rates of kidney dysfunction came from ischemic heart disease and peripheral artery disease in 2019, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although the attributed age-standardized DALYs and death rates decreased from 1990-2019, risk exposure increased and remains a crucial risk factor in Iran. Therefore, policymakers should consider preparing a preventive program that takes into account different levels of prevention of kidney dysfunction.

The cost-of-illness and burden-of-disease of treatment-resistant depression in Austria

BACKGROUND

Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) in major depressive disorder (MDD) is most commonly defined as the failure to respond to at least two antidepressant (AD) treatments of adequate duration and adherence. While the health care utilization (RU) and costs of patients with MDD are well documented, little is known about patients with TRD. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the direct medical RU of complex therapy pathways and to analyze the total cost-of-illness and the burden-of-disease in Austria.

METHODS

In order to quantify the cost-of-illness and burden-of-disease of TRD, the analysis was designed with two steps. First, RU data were collected through an extensive survey of Austrian experts and a systematic literature review. Second, direct, indirect, and intangible costs were calculated using the micro-costing method. The results are presented per patient and based on a patient flow for the entire cohort of TRD patients.

RESULTS

In Austria, the derived prevalence of TRD is 43,732 patients or 583 per 100,000 population. For 2021, the annual direct costs of TRD were estimated at 345.0 million €. At 684.7 million €, the estimated indirect costs were higher than the direct costs, representing 66.5% of the total cost-of-illness. The average annual cost per TRD patient is 23,547 €, of which direct costs are 7,890 €. Adding the years lived with a disability to the years lost due to premature death attributed to TRD resulted in a total of 29,884 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for the Austrian society.

CONCLUSION

Although TRD accounts for only 0.7% (range: 0.6%-1%) of the total health care budget, it represents a significant burden-of-disease. In addition, TRD is associated with a high level of lost productivity in the Austrian economy. These findings support efforts to prioritize TRD as a focus area to achieve health-related goals.

The burden of hepatitis C virus in the world, China, India, and the United States from 1990 to 2019

Background and aim

Hepatitis C virus infection can lead to an enormous health burden worldwide. Investigating the changes in HCV-related burden between different countries could provide inferences for disease management. Hence, we aim to explore the temporal tendency of the disease burden associated with HCV infection in China, India, the United States, and the world.

Methods

Detailed data on the total burden of disease related to HCV infection were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. Joinpoint regression models were used to simulate the optimal joinpoints of annual percent changes (APCs). Further analysis of the age composition of each index over time and the relationship between ASRs and the socio-demographic Index (SDI) were explored. Finally, three factors (population growth, population aging, and age-specific changes) were deconstructed for the changes in the number of incidences, deaths, and DALYs.

Results

It was estimated that 6.2 million new HCV infections, 0.54 million HCV-related deaths, and 15.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2019, with an increase of 25.4, 59.1, and 43.6%, respectively, from 1990, are mainly due to population growth and aging. China experienced a sharp drop in age-standardized rates in 2019, the United States showed an upward trend, and India exhibited a fluctuating tendency in the burden of disease. The incidence was increasing in all locations recently.

Conclusion

HCV remains a global health concern despite tremendous progress being made. The disease burden in China improved significantly, while the burden in the United States was deteriorating, with new infections increasing recently, suggesting more targeted interventions to be established to realize the 2030 elimination goals.

QALYs, DALYs, and HALYs: A unifying framework for the evaluation of population health

We provide a unifying framework for the evaluation of population health. We formalize several axioms for social preferences over distributions of health. We show that a specific combination of those axioms characterizes a large class of population health evaluation functions combining concerns for quality of life, quantity of life and health shortfalls. We refer to the class as (unweighted) aggregations of health-adjusted life years (HALYs). Two focal (and somewhat polar) members of this family are the (unweighted) aggregations of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We also provide new characterization results for these focal members that enable us to scrutinize their normative foundations and shed new light on their similarities and differences.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccines in 137 LMICs: a modelling study

While current live, oral rotavirus vaccines (LORVs) are reducing severe diarrhea everywhere, their effectiveness is lower in high burden settings. Alternative approaches are in advanced stages of clinical development, including injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccine (iNGRV) candidates, which have the potential to better protect children, be combined with existing routine immunizations and be more affordable than current LORVs. In an effort to better understand the real public health value of iNGRVs and to help inform decisions by international agencies, funders, and vaccine manufacturers, we conducted an impact and cost-effectiveness analysis examining 20 rotavirus vaccine use cases. We evaluated several currently licensed LORVs, one neonatal oral NGRV (oNGRV), one iNGRV, and one iNGRV-DTP (iNGRV comprising part of a DTP-containing combination) over a ten-year timeframe in 137 low- and middle-income countries. The most promising use case identified was a high efficacy iNGRV-DTP, predicted to have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$1.4 billion), the highest vaccine benefit (750,000 rotavirus deaths averted, 13 million rotavirus hospital admissions averted, US$ 2.7 billion health-care cost averted), and most favorable cost-effectiveness (cost-saving). iNGRV-DTP vaccine remained the most affordable, safe, and cost-effective option even when it was assumed to have equivalent efficacy to the current LORVs. This study shows that while the development of iNGRVs with superior efficacy to currently licensed LORVs would be ideal, iNGRVs with similar efficacy to LORVs would offer substantial public health value. It also highlights the economic value of accelerating the development of DTP-based combination vaccines that include iNGRV to provide rotavirus protection.

Global, regional, and national burden and attributable risk factors of neurological disorders: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2019

Background

Neurological disorders are a major and increasing global health challenge, which accounts for a substantial portion of the disease burden worldwide. The aim of this systematic analysis is to present the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of disease burden, epidemiological trends, and attributable risk factors of neurological disorders at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

We extracted data of 18 neurological disorders from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study database. The burden of neurological disorders was measured using the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and further described according to age, sex, year, geographical location and socio-demographic Index (SDI). All estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Findings

Globally, in 2019, there were nearly 10 million deaths and 349 million DALYs due to neurological disorders. Among the 18 neurological disorders, stroke was the biggest contributor to DALYs (143232.18 [95%UI 133095.81-153241.82] in thousands) and deaths (6552.72 [95%UI 5995.20-7015.14] in thousands), followed by neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. From 1990 to 2019, the DALYs of neurological diseases belonging to the communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional categories showed a sharp decrease, while Alzheimer's disease and other dementias and Parkinson's disease showed a large increase. Neurological disorders exhibited different profiles in different regions and age groups. A significant correlation between the SDI and the age-standardized DALY rates was also found except for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. In addition, risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, low birth weight and short gestation period, and metabolic risk contribute significantly to neurological disorders.

Interpretation

The overall burden of neurological disorders has increased from 1990 to 2019, especially for non-communicable neurological disorders. The substantial variations of burden across regions emphasize the need for region-specific interventional strategies and allocation of resources based on priorities.

Spatiotemporal trends of disease burden of edentulism from 1990 to 2019: A global, regional, and national analysis

Background

Understanding the spatiotemporal trends in disease burden of edentulism is critical to reducing disease burden of edentulism and deploying medical resources. We assessed the changing patterns of disease burden of edentulism at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of edentulism were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify spatiotemporal trends in the ASRs of edentulism.

Results

In 2019, the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of edentulism were 35.2 and 9.6 million, and the ASPR and ASDR were 43.12/1,000 and 1.18/1,000, with EAPCs of -0.18 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.28, -0.09] and -0.16[95% CI: -0.26, -0.07] from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Females and the elderly had a higher burden of edentulism. Although the ASPR, ASDR, and ASIR in the high SDI, high-middle SDI, and middle SDI regions showed a decreasing or stable trend, the absolute disease burdens of edentulism in these regions were still high. Although the absolute disease burdens of low SDI and low-middle SDI were low, their ASPR and ASDR showed an upward trend. In countries with high initial disease burden or high SDI, ASPR, ASDR, and ASIR showed stable or declining trends.

Conclusion

The absolute disease burden due to edentulism was increasing in many countries and regions. Countries should reduce the disease burden caused by edentulism by adopting measures including the prevention and treatment of dental caries and periodontal disease.

The estimated burden of ultra-processed foods on cardiovascular disease outcomes in Brazil: A modeling study

Introduction

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study aimed to estimate CVD premature deaths, incident cases, and disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazilian adults in 2019.

Methods

A validated a comparative risk assessment model was adapted to estimate the burden of major CVD outcomes (coronary heart disease and stroke) attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazilian adults aged 30 to 69 years. The model inputs included nationally representative data of the UPF contribution to the total energy of the diet, national official demographic records, CVD outcomes (incidence, deaths and DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease study for 2019, and relative risks from meta-analysis studies.

Results

We estimated that approximately 19,200 premature deaths (95% uncertainty intervals - UI, 7,097 to 32,353), 74,900 new cases (95% UI, 25,983 to 128,725), and 883,000 DALYs/year (95% UI, 324,279 to 1,492,593) from CVD were attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazil, corresponding to about 22% of the premature deaths from CVD and to 33% of the total premature all-cause deaths attributable to UPF intake among Brazilian adults. Reducing UPF consumption by 10% in the adult population would avert approximately 11% of the premature CVD deaths, equivalent to 2,100 deaths/year (95% UI, 697 to 4,511). A 20% reduction in UPF intake would avert approximately 21% of the premature CVD deaths or 4,100 deaths (95% UI, 1,413 to 8,047), and a 50% reduction in UPF intake would avert about 52% of the premature CVD deaths, corresponding to 9,900 deaths/year (95% UI, 3,682 to 17,820). If UPF consumption among adults was reduced to that of the first quintile of UPF intake in the baseline scenario, approximately 81% of the premature CVD deaths would be averted, corresponding to some 15,600 deaths/year (95% UI, 5,229 to 27,519).

Conclusion

Our study estimated a high burden of premature CVD outcomes attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazil. Our findings support food policies aimed at reducing the consumption of UPF, such as fiscal and regulatory policies, which are imperative to prevent CVD in Brazil.

Germany's Burden of Disease of Bloodstream Infections Due to Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus faecium between 2015-2020

In Germany, there is an increasing amount of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) isolates in bloodstream infections (BSIs); however, estimates on recent incidences and disease burden are missing. We aim to estimate the incidence and calculate the annual disease burden in disease-adjusted life years (DALYs) for BSIs due to VREfm in Germany between 2015 and 2020 to support informed decision-making in the field of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We used the Antibiotic Resistance Surveillance (ARS) system data to obtain incidence estimates. The estimated incidences were used in the Burden of Communicable Disease in Europe (BCoDE) toolkit to calculate the attributable DALYs. A total of 3417 VREfm blood culture-positive isolates were observed within ARS. The estimated incidence of VREfm-BSIs per 100,000 inhabitants increased from 1.4 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 0.8−1.9) in 2015 to 2.9 (95% UI: 2.4−3.3) in 2020. The estimated burden, expressed in DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, increased from 8.5 (95% UI: 7.3−9.7; YLD = 0.9, YLL = 7.6) in 2015 to 15.6 (95% UI: 14.6−16.6; YLD = 1.6, YLL = 14) in 2020. The most affected groups within the observed period are the 65−69-year-old males with 262.9 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, and in the younger age groups (<30 years), the under-one-year-old with 43.1 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants and 34.5 DALYs for male and female, respectively. The increasing DALYs of BSIs due to VREfm require targeted prevention and control measures to address their unequal distribution across gender and age, especially for older hospitalized patients, neonates, and infants in Germany.

Zinc agronomic biofortification of staple crops may be a cost-effective strategy to alleviate zinc deficiency in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Inadequate dietary zinc (Zn) supplies and Zn deficiency (ZnD) are prevalent in Ethiopia, where cereals are major dietary sources, yet low in bioavailable Zn. Zinc agronomic biofortification (ZAB) of staple crops through application of Zn fertilizers may contribute to alleviating ZnD. However, large-scale promotion and adoption of ZAB requires evidence of the feasibility and public health benefits. This paper aimed to quantify the potential cost-effectiveness of ZAB of staple crops for alleviating ZnD in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Current burden of ZnD among children in Ethiopia was quantified using a disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) framework. Evidence on baseline dietary Zn intake, cereal consumption, and fertilizer response ratio was compiled from existing literature and secondary data sources. Reduction in the burden of ZnD attributable to ZAB of three staple cereals (maize, teff, and wheat) via granular and foliar Zn fertilizer applications was calculated under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The associated costs for fertilizer, labor, and equipment were estimated in proportion to the cropping area and compared against DALYs saved and the national Gross Domestic Product capita-1.

RESULTS

An estimated 0.55 million DALYs are lost annually due to ZnD, mainly due to ZnD-related mortality (91%). The ZAB of staple cereals via granular Zn fertilizer could reduce the burden of ZnD by 29 and 38% under pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, respectively; the respective values for ZAB via foliar application were 32 and 40%. The ZAB of staple cereals via granular fertilizer costs US$502 and US$505 to avert each DALY lost under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively; the respective values for ZAB via foliar application were US$226 and US$ 496. Foliar Zn application in combination with existing pesticide use could reduce costs to US$260-353 for each DALY saved. Overall, ZAB of teff and wheat were found to be more cost-effective in addressing ZnD compared to maize, which is less responsive to Zn fertilizer.

CONCLUSION

ZAB of staple crops via granular or foliar applications could be a cost-effective strategy to address ZnD, which can be integrated with the existing fertilizer scheme and pesticide use to minimize the associated costs.

A comparative study of the disease burden attributable to asbestos in Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia between 1990 and 2019

Background

Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia are the main asbestos-producing countries, and all forms of asbestos are carcinogenic to humans. The objective of this study was to estimate the disease burden attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019 in major producing countries, including Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Methods

Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates (ASDR) of disease burden attributable to asbestos by country, age, and sex were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Percentage change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to assess the trends of ASDR and ASMR of disease burden attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019.

Results

Asbestos-related diseases were highly heterogeneous across Global, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. There was a downward trend in ASMR and ASDR of diseases burden related to asbestos globally. The age-specific mortality rate of disease attributable to asbestos increased in men and women, although it decreased in women aged 85–89, the highest age-specific mortality rate were observed in age 95 + group in men [162.14 (95% UI: 103.76–215.45)] and women [30.58 (95% UI: 14.83–44.33)] per 100 000 population, respectively. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause of death and DALYS attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019 globally and in Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. China had the highest percentage change (73.31%) and EAPC [3.41 (95% CI: 2.75–4.08)] in ASMR related to exposure to asbestos in men, with the highest percentage change (73.31%) and EAPC [3.41 (95% CI: 2.75–4.08)] in ASDR in men.

Conclusions

The ASMR and ASDR of disease burden attributable to asbestos decreased between 1990 and 2019 globally. TBL cancer was the leading cause of death and DALYs attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019. There has been an increasing trend in mortality and DALYs globally, especially in older men. The burden of disease attributable to asbestos is increasing in China, especially in men.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14437-6.

Global, regional, and national burden of disease study of atrial fibrillation/flutter, 1990-2019: results from a global burden of disease study, 2019

Background

Data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factor Study 2019 (GBD 2019) was used to assess the burden and change in prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation/flutter in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

Incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates of AF/AFL were analyzed by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and human development index (HDI) using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD2019) results，and risk factors for AF/AFL (mainly high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking and diet high in sodium) were differentially analyzed.

Results

There are 59.70 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 45.73–75.29 million) AF/AFL patients worldwide in 2019, with 4.72 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.64–5.96 million) new cases and 0.315 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.268–0.361 million) and 8.39 million disability-adjusted years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 6.69–10.54 million). The highest risk factor for deaths, DALYs attributable to AF/AFL in 2019 was high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking, and diet high in sodium. It is estimated that between 2030 and 2034, the total incidence of male AF/ AFL will be 16.08 million, and the total number of deaths will be 1.01 million. For females, the total number of incidence is 16.85 million, and the total number of deaths is 1.49 million.

Conclusions

AF/AFL remains a major global public health problem, although the ASR of prevalence, incidence, and DALY at the worldwide level showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019(the ASR of deaths increased slightly). However, the unfavorable trend observed in this study in countries with lower SDI suggests that current prevention and treatment strategies should be reoriented. Some countries should develop more targeted and specific strategies to prevent the increase of AF/AFL.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14403-2.

Time-resolved dynamic disability adjusted life-years estimation

The quantification of how healthy the indoor air is, is a complex issue comprising of a large number of contaminants of various sources. The health implication of exposure to each of the contaminant deemed of importance can be expressed using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The sum of all DALYs indicates how harmful the indoor air was during the investigated time-frame. This metric was originally developed by the World Bank and the WHO. In 2012, Logue et. al described two methods to estimate the DALYs related to exposure to contaminants in the indoor air based on the yearly mean exposure concentration of a population. The downside of these methods is that, when detailed exposure concentration profiles are available the method results in a loss of information. A novel method was developed to estimate DALYs originating from exposure to indoor pollutants that can be used for time-resolved exposure concentration data without this loss of information: Dynamic DALYs. The advantage of this method is that it can be calculated in real-time and for short or long periods of data. As such it can be used for pin-pointing problematic events in the exposure profile of a person and, as it can be calculated in real-time, makes it a candidate for use in automated optimization problems. The use of Dynamic DALYs is demonstrated for a simulation case-study of an occupied apartment. One continuously ventilated system (Dcont) and one smart ventilation system (Dsmart) are compared. Sources of typically indoor generated Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) were added and the related exposure profile and Dynamic DALY results of the working adult were analyzed. The results showcase detailed and more summative results with regards to health and energy use using the novel indicator. For Dcont and Dsmart the total Dynamic DALYs are 2.2 years and 8.6 years, respectively (population of 100 000, duration of 1 year), for the VOCs and sources considered in the analysis.

Alarming changes in the global burden of mental disorders in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study

Mental disorders account for a large and increasing health burden worldwide, as shown in the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2010. Unpacking how this burden in children and adolescents varies with sex, geographical regions, and ethnicities and how it has changed in the last 3 decades are important to improve the existing public health policies and prevention strategies. The study was conducted using GBD 2019 database. The burden of children and adolescents' (< 20 years old) mental disorders was displayed as prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost, and years lived with disability globally between 1990 and 2019. The number of DALYs in children and adolescents diagnosed with mental disorders was 21.5 million (95% CI: 15.2-29.6 million) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates of DALYs of mental disorders increased from 803.8 per 100,000 (95% CI: 567.7-1104.3 per 100,000) to 833.2 per 100,000 (95% CI: 589.0-1146.1 per 100,000) population. Over the past 30 years, there had been a huge increase in the number of individuals suffering from anxiety disorders, major depressive disorders, and conduct disorders including an alarming increase in the rate of eating disorders such as 24.3% in bulimia nervosa and 17.0% in anorexia nervosa. Globally, 8.8% of children and adolescents have been diagnosed with varieties of mental illnesses, accounting for a heavy disease burden on public health. Besides, the worldwide increasing rates of anxiety disorders, major depressive disorders, and eating disorders have brought considerable challenges to public health undertakings, for which further prevention and treatment countermeasures are urgently needed.

Estimating disability-adjusted life years for breast cancer and the impact of screening in female populations in China, 2015-2030: an exploratory prevalence-based analysis applying local weights

BACKGROUND

Most cancer disability-adjusted life year (DALY) studies worldwide have used broad, generic disability weights (DWs); however, differences exist among populations and types of cancers. Using breast cancer as example, this study aimed to estimate the population-level DALYs in females in China and the impact of screening as well as applying local DWs.

METHODS

Using multisource data, a prevalence-based model was constructed. (1) Overall years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by using numbers of prevalence cases, stage-specific proportions, and local DWs for breast cancer. Numbers of females and new breast cancer cases as well as local survival rates were used to calculate the number of prevalence cases. (2) Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated using breast cancer mortality rates, female numbers and standard life expectancies. (3) The prevalence of and mortality due to breast cancer and associated DALYs from 2020 to 2030 were predicted using Joinpoint regression. (4) Assumptions considered for screening predictions included expanding coverage, reducing mortality due to breast cancer and improving early-stage proportion for breast cancer.

RESULTS

In Chinese females, the estimated number of breast cancer DALYs was 2251.5 thousand (of 17.3% were YLDs) in 2015, which is predicted to increase by 26.7% (60.3% among those aged ≥ 65 years) in 2030 (2852.8 thousand) if the screening coverage (25.7%) stays unchanged. However, if the coverage can be achieved to 40.7% in 2030 (deduced from the "Healthy China Initiative"), DALYs would decrease by 1.5% among the screened age groups. Sensitivity analyses found that using local DWs would change the base-case values by ~ 10%.

CONCLUSION

Estimates of DALYs due to breast cancer in China were lower (with a higher proportion of YLDs) than Global Burden of Disease Study numbers (2527.0 thousand, 8.2% were YLDs), suggesting the importance of the application of population-specific DWs. If the screening coverage remains unchanged, breast cancer-caused DALYs would continue to increase, especially among elderly individuals.

The burden of chronic respiratory disease and attributable risk factors in North Africa and Middle East: findings from global burden of disease study (GBD) 2019

BACKGROUND

North Africa and Middle East (NAME) has an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs); however, a systematic understanding of the distribution and trends is not available. We aimed to report the trends of CRDs and attributable risk factors in this region between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, cause specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment and contribution of population ageing and growth was determined by decomposition analysis.

RESULTS

The number of deaths due to CRD in 2019 were 128,513 (110,781 to 114,351). In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CRDs was 1052.8 (924.3 to 1209.4) per 100,000 population and had a 10.3% increase and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 36.1 (30.9 to 40.3) with a 32.9% decrease compared to 1990. In 2019, United Arab Emirates had the highest ASIR (1412.7 [1237.3 to 1622.2]) and Afghanistan had the highest ASDR (67.8 [52.0 to 81.3]). CRDs were responsible for 2.91% of total DALYs in 2019 (1.69% due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and 1.02% due to asthma). With regard to the components of DALYs, the age-standardized rate of years of life lost (YLL) had a - 39.0% (- 47.1 to - 30.3) decrease; while the age-standardized rate of years lived with disability (YLD) had a 13.4% (9.5 to 17.7) increase. Of total ASDRs of CRDs, 31.6% were attributable to smoking and 14.4% to ambient particulate matter pollution.

CONCLUSION

CRDs remain a leading cause of death and disability in NAME, with growth in absolute numbers. COPD and asthma were the most common CRDs and smoking was the leading risk factor especially in men. More attention is needed in order to reduce CRDs' burden through appropriate interventions and policies.

COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on US Childhood Caries and Potential Mitigation

Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Hispanic and low-income US children have a higher prevalence of untreated caries than their higher-income and non-Hispanic White (NHW) counterparts. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many dental offices and school sealant programs closed beginning March 2020. We examine the effect of reduced access to restorative care and sealants on the oral health of children from low-income households overall and by race/ethnicity and how increased sealant delivery in September 2022 could mitigate these effects. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to model COVID-19's impact on first permanent molar (1M) caries incidence and loss in quality of life (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) due to time lived with 1M untreated caries. Our model followed a cohort of children aged 7 y in March 2020 until February 2024. Model inputs were primarily obtained from published studies and nationally representative data. Excess DALYs per 1,000 children attributable to reduced access to care during the pandemic were 1.48 overall and greater for Hispanic (2.07) and NHB (1.75) children than for NHW children (0.94). Excess incidence of 1M caries over 4 y was 2.28 percentage points overall and greater for Hispanic (2.63) and NHB (2.40) children than for NHW (1.96) children. Delivering sealants to 50% of eligible 1Ms in September 2022 would not completely mitigate COVID-19's health access impact: overall excess DALYs would decrease to 1.05, and absolute disparities in excess DALYs between NHW children and Hispanic and NHB children would remain but decrease by 0.38 and 0.33, respectively. Sealing 40% of eligible 1Ms, however, would bring overall 4-y caries incidence down to pre-COVID-19 levels and eliminate the differential effect of the pandemic on children from minority groups. The pandemic's negative impact on the oral health of children from low-income households and increased disparities could be partially mitigated with increased sealant delivery.

Health Care Burden and Expenditure Associated with Adverse Childhood Experiences in Tennessee and Virginia

To estimate attributable burden and costs of conditions associated with exposure to Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) in Tennessee (TN) and Virginia (VA) during 2017. This is a cross-sectional study of individuals aged 18+ having exposure to ACEs using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data. Eight chronic diseases (asthma, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, cardiovascular disease, and arthritis) and two risk factors (smoking and drinking) associated with ACEs were analyzed. Pearson's chi-square tests analyzed the association between ACEs, risk factors and chronic diseases. The population attributable risks (PAR) were estimated for the ACEs related diseases and risk factors and combined with health care expenses and Disability Adjusted-Life-Years (DALYs). Among those who experienced at least 1 ACE in TN, 10% had COPD, 17% had diabetes, 36% had obesity, and 30% had depression. Individuals who experienced at least 1 ACE in VA had higher percentages for COPD, obesity and depression diseases compared to those who had no ACE (p< .0001). ACEs' exposure resulted in a burden of about 115,000 years and 127,000 years in terms of DALYs in TN and VA, respectively. The total health spending associated with ACEs based on PARs was about $647 million ($165 per adult) and $942 million ($292 per adult) in TN and VA respectively. The total costs associated with ACEs was about $15.5 billion ($3948) per person) and $20.2 billion ($6288 per person) in TN and VA, respectively. This study emphasizes the need to reduce ACEs due to high health and financial costs.