1
|
Villota-Miranda J, Rodríguez-Ibeas R. Simple economics of vaccination: public policies and incentives. Int J Health Econ Manag 2024:10.1007/s10754-024-09367-2. [PMID: 38517588 DOI: 10.1007/s10754-024-09367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 02/10/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
This paper focuses on the economics of vaccination and, more specifically, analyzes the vaccination decision of individuals using a game-theoretic model combined with an epidemiological SIR model that reproduces the infection dynamics of a generic disease. We characterize the equilibrium individual vaccination rate, and we show that it is below the rate compatible with herd immunity due to the existence of externalities that individuals do not internalize when they decide on vaccination. In addition, we analyze three public policies consisting of informational campaigns to reduce the disutility of vaccination, monetary payments to vaccinated individuals and measures to increase the disutility of non-vaccination. If the public authority uses only one type of policy, herd immunity is not necessarily achieved unless monetary incentives are used. When the public authority is not limited to use only one policy, we find that the optimal public policy should consist only of informational campaigns if they are sufficiently effective, or a combination of informational campaigns and monetary incentives otherwise. Surprisingly, the requirement of vaccine passports or other restrictions on the non-vaccinated are not desirable.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jesús Villota-Miranda
- Department of Economics, University of La Rioja, La Cigüeña 60, 26004, Logroño, Spain
| | - R Rodríguez-Ibeas
- Department of Economics, University of La Rioja, La Cigüeña 60, 26004, Logroño, Spain.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Stelios S, Konstantakis KN, Michaelides PG. The "Bystander at the Switch" Revisited? Ethical Implications of the Government Strategies Against COVID-19. J Bioeth Inq 2024:10.1007/s11673-023-10328-6. [PMID: 38358585 DOI: 10.1007/s11673-023-10328-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/02/2023] [Indexed: 02/16/2024]
Abstract
Suppose COVID-19 is the runaway tram in the famous moral thought experiment, known as the "Bystander at the Switch." Consider the two differentiated responses of governments around the world to this new threat, namely the option of quarantine/lockdown and herd immunity. Can we contrast the hypothetical with the real scenario? What do the institutional decisions and strategies for dealing with the virus, in the beginning of 2020, signify in a normative moral framework? This paper investigates these possibilities in order to highlight the similarities and, more importantly, the differences that exist between utilitarianism and Kantian ethics. Analysis shows that the hypothetical scenario can never be fully compared to the complex multifactorial nature of the real world. But if a comparison is attempted, the most obvious difference between the two governmental strategies is the concept of duty within the Kantian perspective. Ultimately, it is a matter of comparing freedom and life. Attributing a moral "priority ticket" to one or the other can be analysed through interpersonal aggregation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- S Stelios
- Department of Humanities, Social Sciences and Law, School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens, Zographos Campus, GR-15780, Athens, Greece.
| | - K N Konstantakis
- Department of Humanities, Social Sciences and Law, School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens, Zographos Campus, GR-15780, Athens, Greece
| | - P G Michaelides
- Department of Humanities, Social Sciences and Law, School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens, Zographos Campus, GR-15780, Athens, Greece
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Zaidi AK, Singh RB. Epidemiology of COVID-19. Prog Mol Biol Transl Sci 2024; 202:25-38. [PMID: 38237988 DOI: 10.1016/bs.pmbts.2023.09.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2024]
Abstract
This chapter provides a detailed exploration of the epidemiology of COVID-19, focusing on several key aspects that offer valuable insights into the disease progression. A comprehensive comparison is made between the three related coronaviruses: SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2, elucidating their similarities and differences in terms of transmission dynamics, clinical presentation, laboratory and radiological findings, infection mechanisms, and mortality rates. The concept of herd immunity is then discussed, exploring its relevance and potential implications for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Next, the chapter delves into the changing epidemiology of the disease, examining how various factors such as human behavior, public health interventions, and viral mutations have influenced its transmission patterns and severity over time. Finally, the timelines and evolution of COVID-19 are outlined, tracing the origins of the virus, its rapid global spread, and the emergence of new variants.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Rohan Bir Singh
- Department of Ophthalmology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United State; Department of Population, Policy and Practice, Greater Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London, United Kingdom; Discipline of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Dergaa I, Ben Saad H, Zmijewski P, Farhat RA, Romdhani M, Souissi A, Washif JA, Taheri M, Guelmami N, Souissi N, Chamari K, Al Abdulla SA. Large-scale sporting events during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar with an analysis of patterns of COVID-19 metrics. Biol Sport 2023; 40:1249-1258. [PMID: 37867752 PMCID: PMC10588590 DOI: 10.5114/biolsport.2023.131109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Revised: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The 2022 FIFA World Cup (FIFA-WC) held in Qatar presented unique challenges, given the potential for rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among over 1.4 million international fans attending the event. This study aimed to investigate the impact of the FIFA-WC 2022 on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and reproduction rate (R0) in Qatar. Additionally, it sought to understand the implications of hosting large-scale events during a pandemic without COVID-19 restrictive measures, providing critical insights for future decision-making. Data from "Our World in Data" were analysed for three distinct periods: one week before the FIFA-WC (week-preWC), the four weeks of the event (week-1WC to week-4WC), and one week after (week-postWC). The results revealed a significant increase in COVID-19 cases during week-3WC and week-4WC (compared to week-preWC) in Qatar, followed by a subsequent decrease during the week-postWC. Notably, Qatar experienced a more pronounced surge in positive cases than the global trend. Regarding COVID-19-related deaths, Qatar's peak occurred during week-2WC, while globally deaths peaked from week-3WC to week-postWC. Nevertheless, Qatar's death toll remained relatively low compared to the global trend throughout the event. The findings highlight that the FIFA-WC 2022 in Qatar demonstrated the feasibility of organizing large-scale sporting events during a pandemic with appropriate measures in place. They emphasize the importance of high vaccination coverage, continuous monitoring, and effective collaboration between event organizers, healthcare authorities, and governments. As such, the event serves as a valuable model for future gatherings, underlining the significance of evidence-based decision-making and comprehensive public health preparedness.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ismail Dergaa
- Primary Health Care Corporation (PHCC), Doha, Qatar
- Research Unit Physical Activity, Sport, And Health, UR18JS01, National Observatory of Sport, Tunis 1003, Tunisia
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education, University of Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia
| | - Helmi Ben Saad
- University of Sousse, Farhat HACHED Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Sousse, Research Laboratory (LR12SP09) “Heart Failure” Sousse, Tunisia
| | - Piotr Zmijewski
- Jozef Pilsudski University of Physical Education in Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | - Mohamed Romdhani
- Motricité-Interactions-Performance, MIP, UR4334, Le Mans University, Le Mans, France
| | - Amine Souissi
- University of Sousse, Farhat HACHED Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Sousse, Research Laboratory (LR12SP09) “Heart Failure” Sousse, Tunisia
| | - Jad Adrian Washif
- Sports Performance Division, Institut Sukan Negara Malaysia (National Sports Institute of Malaysia), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Morteza Taheri
- Department of Motor Behavior, Faculty Of Sport Sciences And Health, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
| | - Noomen Guelmami
- Postgraduate School of Public Health, Department of Health Sciences (DISSAL), University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
- Department of Human and Social Sciences, High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Kef, University of Jendouba, Kef 7100, Tunisia
| | - Nizar Souissi
- Research Unit Physical Activity, Sport, And Health, UR18JS01, National Observatory of Sport, Tunis 1003, Tunisia
| | - Karim Chamari
- Aspetar, Orthopedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, FIFA Medical Centre of Excellence, Doha, Qatar
| | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
Giwangkancana G, Pradian E, Indriasari, Handayani SD. Lunar New Year and Eid al Fitr: the circle of COVID-19. IJID Reg 2023; 7:127-129. [PMID: 36158785 PMCID: PMC9481468 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.09.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Revised: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Lunar New Year and Eid al-Fitr are national holidays, and mass movement of people is seen. Lunar New Year 2020 potentiated the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while Eid al-Fitr 2022 was a test for federal management of COVID-19 and the success of the Indonesian vaccination campaign. Analysis of new confirmed cases, hospitalizations and the number of elective surgery cancellations due to positive polymerase chain reaction screening in the pre-operative period provides a snapshot of herd immunity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Gezy Giwangkancana
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran/Dr. Hasan Sadikin National Referral Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Erwin Pradian
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran/Dr. Hasan Sadikin National Referral Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Indriasari
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran/Dr. Hasan Sadikin National Referral Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia
- Central Operating Theatre, Dr. Hasan Sadikin National Referral Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Santi Devi Handayani
- Central Operating Theatre, Dr. Hasan Sadikin National Referral Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Stollenwerk N, Estadilla CDS, Mar J, Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck J, Ibarrondo O, Blasco-Aguado R, Aguiar M. The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:318-340. [PMID: 36945695 PMCID: PMC9998287 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Revised: 02/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization schedule. To assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes, we used an extended Susceptible - Hospitalized - Asymptomatic/mild - Recovered (SHAR) model. Vaccination models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types: vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission, and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and infection. VE was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine administration. We described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country, Spain. With a population in a mixed vaccination setting, our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started, from May to June 2021. Specifically in June, a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nico Stollenwerk
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universitá degli Studi di Trento, Povo, Trento, Italy
| | - Carlo Delfin S Estadilla
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Department, University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Basque Country, Spain
| | - Javier Mar
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
| | | | - Oliver Ibarrondo
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Guipúzcoa, Basque Country, Spain
| | | | - Maíra Aguiar
- BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- Dipartimento di Matematica, Universitá degli Studi di Trento, Povo, Trento, Italy
- Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Al-Hatamleh MA, Abusalah MA, Hatmal MM, Alshaer W, Ahmad S, Mohd-Zahid MH, Rahman ENSE, Yean CY, Alias IZ, Uskoković V, Mohamud R. Understanding the challenges to COVID-19 vaccines and treatment options, herd immunity and probability of reinfection. J Taibah Univ Med Sci 2023; 18:600-638. [PMID: 36570799 PMCID: PMC9758618 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtumed.2022.11.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2022] [Revised: 10/29/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Unlike pandemics in the past, the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which rapidly spread worldwide, was met with a different approach to control and measures implemented across affected countries. The lack of understanding of the fundamental nature of the outbreak continues to make COVID-19 challenging to manage for both healthcare practitioners and the scientific community. Challenges to vaccine development and evaluation, current therapeutic options, convalescent plasma therapy, herd immunity, and the emergence of reinfection and new variants remain the major obstacles to combating COVID-19. This review discusses these challenges in the management of COVID-19 at length and highlights the mechanisms needed to provide better understanding of this pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad A.I. Al-Hatamleh
- Department of Immunology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | - Mai A. Abusalah
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Allied Medical Sciences, Zarqa University, Zarqa, Jordan
| | - Ma'mon M. Hatmal
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, The Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan
| | - Walhan Alshaer
- Cell Therapy Center (CTC), The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
| | - Suhana Ahmad
- Department of Immunology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | - Manali H. Mohd-Zahid
- Department of Chemical Pathology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | - Engku Nur Syafirah E.A. Rahman
- Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | - Chan Y. Yean
- Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | - Iskandar Z. Alias
- Department of Chemical Pathology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | | | - Rohimah Mohamud
- Department of Immunology, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Anderson KA, Creanza N. A cultural evolutionary model of the interaction between parental beliefs and behaviors, with applications to vaccine hesitancy. Theor Popul Biol 2023:S0040-5809(23)00025-4. [PMID: 37150257 DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2023.04.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
Health perceptions and health-related behaviors can change at the population level as cultures evolve. In the last decade, despite the proven efficacy of vaccines, the developed world has seen a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) such as measles, pertussis, and polio. Vaccine hesitancy, an individual attitude influenced by historical, political, and socio-cultural forces, is believed to be a primary factor responsible for decreasing vaccine coverage, thereby increasing the risk and occurrence of VPD outbreaks. Behavior change models have been increasingly employed to understand disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness. However, since health behaviors are culturally influenced, it is valuable to examine them within a cultural evolution context. Here, using a mathematical modeling framework, we explore the effects of cultural evolution on vaccine hesitancy and vaccination behavior. With this model, we shed light on facets of cultural evolution (vertical transmission, community influences, homophily, etc.) that promote the spread of vaccine hesitancy, ultimately affecting levels of vaccination coverage and VPD outbreak risk in a population. In addition, we present our model as a generalizable framework for exploring cultural evolution when humans' beliefs influence, but do not strictly dictate, their behaviors. This model offers a means of exploring how parents' potentially conflicting beliefs and cultural traits could affect their children's health and fitness. We show that vaccine confidence and vaccine-conferred benefits can both be driving forces of vaccine coverage. We also demonstrate that an assortative preference among vaccine-hesitant individuals can lead to increased vaccine hesitancy and lower vaccine coverage.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kerri-Ann Anderson
- Department of Biological Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, 37212, USA; Evolutionary Studies Initiative, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, 37212, USA
| | - Nicole Creanza
- Department of Biological Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, 37212, USA; Evolutionary Studies Initiative, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, 37212, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Kumazaki M, Usuku S. Influence of herd immunity on norovirus: a long-term field study of repeated viral gastroenteritis outbreaks at the same facilities. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:265. [PMID: 37101126 PMCID: PMC10132420 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08251-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Viral acute gastroenteritis (AG) is detected worldwide annually. Outbreaks caused by viruses associated with gastroenteritis have been reported repeatedly at the same facilities in Yokohama, Japan over several years. We investigated the statuses of these repeated outbreaks to consider herd immunity at the facility level. METHODS Between September 2007 and August 2017, 1459 AG outbreaks were reported at 1099 facilities. Stool samples were collected for virological testing, and the norovirus gene was amplified and sequenced to determine the genotype using the N-terminal region of the capsid. RESULTS The outbreaks were caused by norovirus, sapovirus, rotavirus A, and rotavirus C. Norovirus was consistently predominant over the 10-year period. Of 1099 facilities, 227 reported multiple outbreaks, of which norovirus-only combinations accounted for 76.2%. More outbreaks were due to different genotype combinations than the same genotype combinations. For facilities that experienced two norovirus outbreaks, the average interval between outbreaks was longer for groups with the same combinations than for groups with different genogroup or genotype combinations, although no statistically significant differences were observed. At 44 facilities, outbreaks occurred repeatedly during the same AG season, and most exhibited combinations of different norovirus genotypes or viruses. Among 49 combinations with the same norovirus genotype at the same facilities over 10 years, the most prevalent genotypes were combinations of genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4), followed by GII.2, GII.6, GII.3, GII.14, and GI.3. The mean interval between outbreaks was 31.2 ± 26.8 months for all combinations, and the mean intervals were longer for non-GII.4 genotype cases than for GII.4 cases, and statistically significant differences were observed (t-test, P < 0.05). Additionally, these average intervals were longer for kindergarten/nursery schools and primary schools than for nursing homes for older adults (t-test, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Repeated AG outbreaks at the same facilities in Yokohama during the 10-year study period included mainly norovirus combinations. Herd immunity at the facility level was maintained for at least the same AG season. Norovirus genotype-specific herd immunity was maintained for an average of 31.2 months during the study period, and these intervals differed depending on genotype.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Makoto Kumazaki
- Microbiological Testing and Research Division, Yokohama City Institute of Public Health, 2-7-1 Tomiokahigashi, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0051, Japan.
| | - Shuzo Usuku
- Microbiological Testing and Research Division, Yokohama City Institute of Public Health, 2-7-1 Tomiokahigashi, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0051, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Mbah C, Iroka OR, Nwosu CP, Idowu BM, Nwankwo FM, Nwosu IA, Ololo K, Iwuala HO. Population and vaccine hesitancy: a demographic and Socio-behavioural examination of a barrier to Covid-19 herd immunity in Nigeria. Sci Afr 2023; 19:e01508. [PMID: 36570592 PMCID: PMC9759303 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 12/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The theme of the 76th session of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly (2021) stresses on the need to tackle the global coronavirus pandemic and other challenging issues presently staring our world in the face. World leaders have tried to contribute their own quota towards changing the present narrative by vaccinating a large portion of their population. However, vaccine hesitancy has served as a barrier to achieving herd immunity in nations-Nigeria inclusive. The sociological theory of phenomenology and the concept of ''sick role'' were employed as the theoretical framework upon which the study was anchored. Descriptive cross-sectional survey and purposive sampling were used in the work. Data for the study was generated through primary (online survey of 150 respondents) and secondary sources. The content and thematic techniques were used to analyze the data so gathered. The causal factors of vaccine hesitancy in Nigeria were uncovered to include: 'negative human awareness', lack of or low public knowledge/agreement on public health need of the vaccine, disconnect (public mistrust of government) between the people and government and lack of awareness/proximity of vaccination points, among others. The paper recommends strategies for massive advocacy/social mobilization to counter negative social interaction and narratives making the rounds on the intake of the COVID-19 vaccine by the Nigerian populace to build general consensus on the need for the vaccine and adoption of the Nigeria Polio vaccination model of taking vaccine down to the people.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chidi Mbah
- Sociology Department, Faculty of Social Sciences, Abia State Univerty, Uturu (ABSU). P.M.B2000 Abia State Nigeria
| | | | - Chiedozie P. Nwosu
- Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AE-FUNAI) PMB 1010 Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | - Babatunde Michel Idowu
- Department of Criminology & Security Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AE-FUNAI), PMB 1010 Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria,Corresponding author at: Criminology and Security Studies, AE-FUNAI: Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike, 8, Ezama Street, Abakaliki, Ebonyi, Nigeria
| | - Felix M. Nwankwo
- Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AE-FUNAI) PMB 1010 Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | - Innocent A. Nwosu
- Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AE-FUNAI), PMB 1010 Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | - Kennedy Ololo
- Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AE-FUNAI), PMB 1010 Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | - Harrison O. Iwuala
- Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AE-FUNAI) PMB 1010 Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Koutou O, Diabaté AB, Sangaré B. Mathematical analysis of the impact of the media coverage in mitigating the outbreak of COVID-19. Math Comput Simul 2023; 205:600-618. [PMID: 36312512 PMCID: PMC9596178 DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.10.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2021] [Revised: 08/25/2022] [Accepted: 10/15/2022] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, a mathematical model with a standard incidence rate is proposed to assess the role of media such as facebook, television, radio and tweeter in the mitigation of the outbreak of COVID-19. The basic reproduction number R 0 which is the threshold dynamics parameter between the disappearance and the persistence of the disease has been calculated. And, it is obvious to see that it varies directly to the number of hospitalized people, asymptomatic, symptomatic carriers and the impact of media coverage. The local and the global stabilities of the model have also been investigated by using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and the Lyapunov's functional technique, respectively. Furthermore, we have performed a local sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of any variation in each one of the model parameter on the threshold R 0 and the course of the disease accordingly. We have also computed the approximative rate at which herd immunity will occur when any control measure is implemented. To finish, we have presented some numerical simulation results by using some available data from the literature to corroborate our theoretical findings.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ousmane Koutou
- CUP-Kaya/Université Joseph KI-ZERBO, 01 BP 7021 Ouagadougou 01, Burkina Faso, Burkina Faso
| | - Abou Bakari Diabaté
- Département de mathématiques/Université Nazi BONI, 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso
| | - Boureima Sangaré
- Département de mathématiques/Université Nazi BONI, 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Beukenhorst AL, Koch CM, Hadjichrysanthou C, Alter G, de Wolf F, Anderson RM, Goudsmit J. SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:237-242. [PMID: 36738380 PMCID: PMC9898703 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-00965-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anna L Beukenhorst
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
- Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
- Leyden Laboratories BV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | | | | | - Galit Alter
- Ragon Institute of MGH MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Frank de Wolf
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jaap Goudsmit
- Leyden Laboratories BV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Departments of Epidemiology, Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Mathur A, Sahu S, Rai S, Ghoshal U, Ghoshal UC. Serological response to vaccination against coronavirus disease-19 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Indian J Gastroenterol 2023; 42:64-69. [PMID: 36598745 PMCID: PMC9811048 DOI: 10.1007/s12664-022-01323-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 12/11/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
Vaccination against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is effective in preventing the occurrence or reduction in the severity of the infection. Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are on immunomodulators, which may alter serological response to vaccination against COVID-19. Accordingly, we studied (i) the serological response to vaccination against COVID-19 in IBD patients and (ii) a comparison of serological response in IBD patients with that in healthy controls. A prospective study was undertaken during a 6-month period (July 2021 to January 2022). Seroconversion was assessed among vaccinated, unvaccinated IBD patients and vaccinated healthy controls using anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 immunoglobulin G (anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG) antibody detection enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit, and optical density (OD) was measured at 450 nm. OD is directly proportional to the antibody concentration. One hundred and thirty-two blood samples were collected from 97 IBD patients (85 [87.6%] ulcerative colitis and 12 [12.4%] Crohn's disease). Forty-one of the seventy-one (57.7%) unvaccinated and 60/61 (98.4%) vaccinated IBD patients tested positive (OD > 0.3) for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Fourteen of the sixteen (87.5%) healthy controls tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Vaccinated IBD patients had higher ODs than unvaccinated IBD patients (1.31 [1.09-1.70] vs. 0.53 [0.19-1.32], p < 0.001) and 16 vaccinated healthy controls (1.31 [1.09-1.70] vs. 0.64 [0.43-0.78], p < 0.001). Three of the seventy-one (4.2%) unvaccinated IBD patients reported having recovered from COVID-19. Most IBD patients seroconvert after vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, similar to a healthy population. A large proportion of IBD patients had anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies even before vaccination, suggesting the occurrence of herd immunity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Akash Mathur
- Departments of Gastroenterology and Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, 226 014, India
| | - Shikha Sahu
- Departments of Gastroenterology and Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, 226 014, India
| | - Sushmita Rai
- Departments of Gastroenterology and Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, 226 014, India
| | - Ujjala Ghoshal
- Departments of Gastroenterology and Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, 226 014, India
| | - Uday C Ghoshal
- Departments of Gastroenterology and Microbiology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, 226 014, India.
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Plechatá A, Vandeweerdt C, Atchapero M, Luong T, Holz C, Betsch C, Dietermann B, Schultka Y, Böhm R, Makransky G. Experiencing herd immunity in virtual reality increases COVID-19 vaccination intention: Evidence from a large-scale field intervention study. Comput Human Behav 2023; 139:107533. [PMID: 36277032 PMCID: PMC9576250 DOI: 10.1016/j.chb.2022.107533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Revised: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of an immersive virtual reality (VR) simulation of herd immunity on vaccination intentions and its potential underlying mechanisms. In this preregistered field study, N = 654 participants were randomly assigned to one of the three VR conditions: (1) Gamified Herd Immunity; (2) Gamified Herd Immunity + Empathy (with additional narrative elements); (3) Control (gamified with no vaccination-related content). In the Gamified Herd Immunity simulation, participants embodied a vulnerable person and navigated a wedding venue trying to avoid getting infected. A total of 455 participants with below maximum intentions to take a novel vaccine and without severe cybersickness were analyzed. The Gamified Herd Immunity + Empathy and the Gamified Herd Immunity conditions increased vaccination intentions by 6.68 and 7.06 points on a 0-100 scale, respectively, compared to 1.91 for the Control condition. The Gamified Herd Immunity + Empathy condition enhanced empathy significantly more than the Gamified Herd Immunity condition but did not result in higher vaccination intentions. Experienced presence was related to the change in vaccination intentions. The results suggest that VR vaccination communication can effectively increase vaccination intentions; the effect is not solely due to the technological novelty and does not depend on empathy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Adéla Plechatá
- Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 2A, 1353, Copenhagen, Denmark,Corresponding author
| | - Clara Vandeweerdt
- Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Michael Atchapero
- Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 2A, 1353, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Tiffany Luong
- Department of Computer Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 6, 8006 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Christian Holz
- Department of Computer Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 6, 8006 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Cornelia Betsch
- Media and Communication Science, University of Erfurt, Nordhäuser Str. 63, 99089, Erfurt, Germany,Center for Empirical Research in Economics and Behavioral Sciences, University of Erfurt, Nordhäuser Str. 63, 99089, Erfurt, Germany,Health Communication, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Bernhard Nocht Str. 74, 20359, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Bonnie Dietermann
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Invalidenstrasse 43, 10115, Berlin, Germany
| | - Yori Schultka
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Invalidenstrasse 43, 10115, Berlin, Germany
| | - Robert Böhm
- Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 2A, 1353, Copenhagen, Denmark,Department of Occupational, Economic, And Social Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Universitätsstrasse 7, 1010, Vienna, Austria,Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Guido Makransky
- Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 2A, 1353, Copenhagen, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Lucero-Prisno DE, Shomuyiwa DO, Vicente CR, Méndez MJG, Qaderi S, Lopez JC, Mogessie YG, Alacapa J, Chamlagai L, Ndayizeye R, Kinay P. Achieving herd immunity in South America. Glob Health Res Policy 2023; 8:2. [PMID: 36726143 PMCID: PMC9891655 DOI: 10.1186/s41256-023-00286-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
South America, once an epicenter of COVID-19, has stayed on the road of continued management of the pandemic. The region initially struggled to cope with the pandemic as it experienced spiraling numbers of infections and overwhelmed public health systems. South America has risen in its pandemic response to be the region with the highest global vaccination rate. The region posed a strong vaccination drive, with over 76% of its population fully vaccinated with the initial protocol. South America leveraged its deeply rooted vaccination culture and public health confidence among its population. Herd immunity is an integral concept in population infectious disease management. Attaining herd immunity is presently not feasible with available vaccines, but the high vaccination rate in the region depicts the acceptance of vaccination as a strategy for population protection. The availability of effective transmission-blocking vaccines, the continuous implementation of strategies that will enable the undisrupted supply of the vaccines, equity in access to the vaccines, improved vaccine acceptance, and trust in the vaccination and public health systems will help shepherd the region towards herd immunity. Local vaccine production backed with investment in infrastructure and international collaboration for research and knowledge development will also drive population safety.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno
- grid.8991.90000 0004 0425 469XDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK ,grid.449732.f0000 0001 0164 8851Faculty of Management and Development Studies, University of the Philippines Open University, Los Banos, Laguna Philippines ,grid.10223.320000 0004 1937 0490Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | - Creuza Rachel Vicente
- grid.412371.20000 0001 2167 4168Department of Social Medicine, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brazil ,grid.412371.20000 0001 2167 4168Postgraduate Program in Infectious Diseases, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brazil
| | | | - Shohra Qaderi
- grid.2515.30000 0004 0378 8438Maternal Fetal Care Center, Boston Children’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA USA
| | - Jaifred Christian Lopez
- grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC USA
| | - Yidnekachew Girma Mogessie
- grid.21107.350000 0001 2171 9311Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD USA ,Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Baltimore, MD USA
| | - Jason Alacapa
- grid.21107.350000 0001 2171 9311Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD USA
| | - Lila Chamlagai
- grid.40263.330000 0004 1936 9094School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI USA
| | - Remy Ndayizeye
- grid.253615.60000 0004 1936 9510George Washington University, Washington, DC USA
| | - Pelin Kinay
- grid.139596.10000 0001 2167 8433School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Hierro LÁ, Patiño D, Atienza P, Garzón AJ, Cantarero D. The effect of altruism on COVID-19 vaccination rates. Health Econ Rev 2023; 13:2. [PMID: 36595138 PMCID: PMC9807973 DOI: 10.1186/s13561-022-00415-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND After the emergence of the first vaccines against the COVID-19, public health authorities have promoted mass vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity and reduce the effects of the disease. Vaccination rates have differed between countries, depending on supply (availability of resources) and demand (altruism and resistance to vaccination) factors. METHODS This work considers the hypothesis that individuals' health altruism has been an important factor to explain the different levels of vaccination between countries, using the number of transplants as a proxy for altruism. Taking European Union's countries to remove, as far as possible, supply factors that might affect vaccination, we carry out cross-sectional regressions for the most favorable date of the vaccination process (maximum vaccination speed) and for each month during the vaccination campaign. RESULTS Our findings confirm that altruism has affected vaccination rates against the COVID-19. We find a direct relationship between transplants rates (proxy variable) and vaccination rates during periods in which the decision to be vaccinated depended on the individual's choice, without supply restrictions. The results show that other demand factors have worked against vaccination: political polarization and belonging to the group of countries of the former Eastern bloc. CONCLUSIONS Altruism is a useful tool to define future vaccination strategies, since it favors the individuals' awareness for vaccination.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Luis Á Hierro
- Department of Economics and Economic History, University of Sevilla, Avda. Ramón y Cajal, S/N, 41018, Seville, Spain
| | - David Patiño
- Department of Economics and Economic History, University of Sevilla, Avda. Ramón y Cajal, S/N, 41018, Seville, Spain
| | - Pedro Atienza
- Department of Economics and Economic History, University of Sevilla, Avda. Ramón y Cajal, S/N, 41018, Seville, Spain.
| | - Antonio J Garzón
- Department of Economics and Economic History, University of Sevilla, Avda. Ramón y Cajal, S/N, 41018, Seville, Spain
| | - David Cantarero
- Department of Economics, Universidad de Cantabria, Research Group on Health Economics and Health Services Management-Marqués de Valdecilla Research Institute (IDIVAL), Avda. de los Castros S/N, 39005, Santander, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Wang BG, Wang ZC, Wu Y, Xiong Y, Zhang J, Ma Z. A mathematical model reveals the influence of NPIs and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant. Nonlinear Dyn 2023; 111:3937-3952. [PMID: 36339320 PMCID: PMC9628561 DOI: 10.1007/s11071-022-07985-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
An SVEIR SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant model is proposed to provide some insights to coordinate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number R 0 and the effective reproduction number R e to measure the infection potential of Omicron variant and formulate an optimal disease control strategy. Our inversion results imply that the sick period of Omicron variant in the United States is longer than that of Delta variant in India. The decrease in the infectious period of the infection with infectiousness implies that the risk of hospitalization is reduced; but the increasing period of the infection with non-infectiousness signifies that Omicron variant lengthens the period of nucleic acid test being negative. Optimistically, Omicron's death rate is only a quarter of Delta's. Moreover, we forecast that the cumulative cases will exceed 100 million in the United States on February 28, 2022, and the daily confirmed cases will reach a peak on February 2, 2022. The results of parameters sensitivity analysis imply that NPIs are helpful to reduce the number of confirmed cases. In particular, NPIs are indispensable even if all the people were vaccinated when the efficiency of vaccine is relatively low. By simulating the relationships of the effective reproduction number R e , the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine, we find that it is impossible to achieve the herd immunity without NPIs while the efficiency of vaccine is lower than 88.7 % . Therefore, the herd immunity area is defined by the evolution of relationships between the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine. Finally, we present that the disease-induced mortality rate demonstrates the periodic oscillation and an almost periodic function is deduced to match the curve. A discussion completes the paper.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bin-Guo Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhi-Cheng Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Wu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yongping Xiong
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiangqian Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhuihui Ma
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Sinha P, Kumar S, Chandra C. Strategies for ensuring required service level for COVID-19 herd immunity in Indian vaccine supply chain. Eur J Oper Res 2023; 304:339-352. [PMID: 33776195 PMCID: PMC7979275 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.03.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2020] [Accepted: 03/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Post COVID-19 vaccine development, nations are now getting ready to face another challenge: how to effectively distribute vaccines amongst the masses to quickly achieve herd immunity against the infection. According to some experts, herd immunity for COVID-19 can be achieved by inoculating 67% of the population. India may find it difficult to achieve this service level target, owing to several infrastructural deficiencies in its vaccine supply chain. Effect of these deficiencies is to cause frequent lead time disruptions. In this context, we develop a novel modelling approach to identify few nodes, which require additional inventory allocations (strategic inventory reserves) to ensure minimum service level (67%) under the possibility of lead time disruptions. Later, through an illustrative case study on distribution of Japanese Encephalitis vaccine, we identify conditions under which strategic inventory reserve policy cannot be practically implemented to meet service level targets. Nodes fulfilling these conditions are termed as critical nodes and must be overhauled structurally to make the implementation of strategic inventory policy practically viable again. Structural overhauling may entail installation of better cold storage facilities, purchasing more quality transport vans, improving reliability of transport network, and skills of cold storage manager by training. Ideally, conditions for identifying critical nodes for COVID-19 vaccine distribution must be derived separately by substituting COVID-19 specific parametric values in our model. In the absence of the required data for COVID-19 scenario, JE specific criteria can be used heuristically to identify critical nodes and structurally overhaul them later for efficiently achieving service level targets.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Priyank Sinha
- Department of Operations, Indian Institute of Management Rohtak, Management City, NH-10, Southern Bye Pass, Sunaria, Rohtak, 124010 Haryana, Inida
| | - Sameer Kumar
- Opus College of Business, University of St. Thomas, 1000 LaSalle Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55403-2005, USA
| | - Charu Chandra
- College of Business Administration, University of Michigan Dearborn, MI, USA
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Kurata T, Miyama T, Kanbayashi D, Kaida Y, Aoyama I, Ikemori R, Banno F, Kawahata T, Mori H, Motomura K. Increasing seroprevalence but waning herd immunity against measles after elimination: Longitudinal seroepidemiology of measles in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, 2003-2020. Vaccine 2022; 40:6581-8. [PMID: 35927136 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.07.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Japan is one of the countries conducting longitudinal serosurveillance of vaccine-preventable diseases. We conducted surveillance of the local measles-specific antibody titer, calculated the effective reproduction number (Re), and compared data of four terms: term 1, 2003-2006 (before the introduction of the second shot of measles-containing vaccine); term 2, 2007-2010 (early term toward measles elimination); term 3, 2011-2014 (later term toward measles elimination); and term 4, 2015-2020 (after elimination of measles in Japan). Approximately 250 sera from volunteers aged 0 to ≥ 40 years were collected and examined for measles-specific IgG using the gelatin particle agglutination (PA) method annually from 2003 to 2020. Seroprevalence and the geometric mean of the PA antibody titer were examined by term. Re was calculated using the age-dependent proportion immune and contact matrix for each term. Of the 4,716 sera, 886 in term 1, 1,217 in term 2, 1,069 in term 3, and 1,544 in term 4 were collected. The seroprevalence gradually increased from term 1 (88.3% CI 86.0-90.3) to term 4 (95.7% CI 94.6-96.7), and the seroprevalence of term 1 was significantly lower than those of other terms (Fisher's exact test, p < 0.001), with PA titer ≥ 16 as positive. By contrast, PA antibody titers significantly decreased from term 1 (median 1,024) to term 4 (median 256) (Mann-Whitney U test, p < 0.001). With the protection level (PA titer ≥ 128 and ≥ 256) as positive, Re gradually increased from term 1 (1.8 and 2.3) to term 4 (2.5 and 4.8, respectively). Waning levels of measles antibodies potentially increase the measles susceptibility in Osaka, Japan. This trend might imply a limitation of vaccine-induced immunity in the absence of a natural booster for wild strains after measles elimination. This study provides a cue for maintaining continuous measles elimination status in the future.
Collapse
|
20
|
Sereno J, Anderson A, Ferramosca A, Hernandez-Vargas EA, González AH. Minimizing the epidemic final size while containing the infected peak prevalence in SIR systems. Automatica (Oxf) 2022; 144:110496. [PMID: 35936927 PMCID: PMC9338766 DOI: 10.1016/j.automatica.2022.110496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2021] [Revised: 01/31/2022] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Mathematical models are critical to understand the spread of pathogens in a population and evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak prevalence ( I P P ) or the epidemic final size ( E F S ). While most of them optimize a simple cost function along a fixed finite-time horizon, no consensus has been reached about how to simultaneously handle the I P P and the E F S , while minimizing the intervention's side effects. In this work, based on a new characterization of the dynamical behaviour of SIR-type models under control actions (including the stability of equilibrium sets in terms of herd immunity), we study how to minimize the E F S while keeping the I P P controlled at any time. A procedure is proposed to tailor NPIs by separating transient from stationary control objectives: the potential benefits of the strategy are illustrated by a detailed analysis and simulation results related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Juan Sereno
- Institute of Technological Development for the Chemical Industry (INTEC), CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL), Guemes 3450, Santa Fe, 3000, Argentina
| | - Alejandro Anderson
- Institute of Technological Development for the Chemical Industry (INTEC), CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL), Guemes 3450, Santa Fe, 3000, Argentina
| | - Antonio Ferramosca
- Department of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Via Marconi 5, Dalmine (BG), 24044, Italy
| | - Esteban A Hernandez-Vargas
- Instituto de Matemáticas, UNAM, Boulevard Juriquilla 3001, Querétaro, 76230, Mexico
- Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Ruth-Moufang-Str. 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, 76230, Germany
| | - Alejandro Hernán González
- Institute of Technological Development for the Chemical Industry (INTEC), CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL), Guemes 3450, Santa Fe, 3000, Argentina
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Taboe HB, Asare-Baah M, Yesmin A, Ngonghala CN. Impact of age structure and vaccine prioritization on COVID-19 in West Africa. Infect Dis Model 2022; 7:709-727. [PMID: 36097593 PMCID: PMC9454155 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2022] [Revised: 08/29/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a major global health challenge since its emergence in 2019. Contrary to early predictions that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would bear a disproportionate share of the burden of COVID-19 due to the region's vulnerability to other infectious diseases, weak healthcare systems, and socioeconomic conditions, the pandemic's effects in SSA have been very mild in comparison to other regions. Interestingly, the number of cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths in SSA remain low, despite the loose implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the low availability and administration of vaccines. Possible explanations for this low burden include epidemiological disparities, under-reporting (due to limited testing), climatic factors, population structure, and government policy initiatives. In this study, we formulate a model framework consisting of a basic model (in which only susceptible individuals are vaccinated), a vaccine-structured model, and a hybrid vaccine-age-structured model to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in West Africa (WA). The framework is trained with a portion of the confirmed daily COVID-19 case data for 16 West African countries, validated with the remaining portion of the data, and used to (i) assess the effect of age structure on the incidence of COVID-19 in WA, (ii) evaluate the impact of vaccination and vaccine prioritization based on age brackets on the burden of COVID-19 in the sub-region, and (iii) explore plausible reasons for the low burden of COVID-19 in WA compared to other parts of the world. Calibration of the model parameters and global sensitivity analysis show that asymptomatic youths are the primary drivers of the pandemic in WA. Also, the basic and control reproduction numbers of the hybrid vaccine-age-structured model are smaller than those of the other two models indicating that the disease burden is overestimated in the models which do not account for age-structure. This result is confirmed through the vaccine-derived herd immunity thresholds. In particular, a comprehensive analysis of the basic (vaccine-structured) model reveals that if 84%(73%) of the West African populace is fully immunized with the vaccines authorized for use in WA, vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved. This herd immunity threshold is lower (68%) for the hybrid model. Also, all three thresholds are lower (60% for the basic model, 51% for the vaccine-structured model, and 48% for the hybrid model) if vaccines of higher efficacies (e.g., the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine) are prioritized, and higher if vaccines of lower efficacy are prioritized. Simulations of the models show that controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in WA (by reducing transmission) requires a proactive approach, including prioritizing vaccination of more youths or vaccination of more youths and elderly simultaneously. Moreover, complementing vaccination with a higher level of mask compliance will improve the prospects of containing the pandemic. Additionally, simulations of the model predict another COVID-19 wave (with a smaller peak size compared to the Omicron wave) by mid-July 2022. Furthermore, the emergence of a more transmissible variant or easing the existing measures that are effective in reducing transmission will result in more devastating COVID-19 waves in the future. To conclude, accounting for age-structure is important in understanding why the burden of COVID-19 has been low in WA and sustaining the current vaccination level, complemented with the WHO recommended NPIs is critical in curbing the spread of the disease in WA.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hemaho B Taboe
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.,Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin
| | - Michael Asare-Baah
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA
| | - Afsana Yesmin
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Toxvaerd F, Rowthorn R. On the management of population immunity. J Econ Theory 2022; 204:105501. [PMID: 35702334 PMCID: PMC9186754 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2022.105501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2020] [Revised: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This paper considers a susceptible-infected-recovered type model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination directly induce such herd immunity, which builds up over time. Optimal treatment is shown to involve intervention at early stages of the epidemic, while optimal vaccination may defer intervention to intermediate stages. Thus, while treatment and vaccination have superficial similarities, their effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic are different. Equilibrium vaccination is qualitatively similar to socially optimal vaccination, while equilibrium treatment differs in nature from socially optimal treatment. The optimal policies are compared to traditional non-economic public health interventions which rely on herd immunity thresholds.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Flavio Toxvaerd
- Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
- CEPR, United Kingdom
| | | |
Collapse
|
23
|
Iida T, Kawata K, Nakabayashi M. The citizen preferences-positive externality trade-off: A survey study of COVID-19 vaccine deployment in Japan. SSM Popul Health 2022; 19:101191. [PMID: 35992967 PMCID: PMC9381943 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Revised: 07/26/2022] [Accepted: 07/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Medicine is a scarce resource and a public good that benefits others by bettering patients’ health. COVID-19 vaccines in shortage are, 1) a scarce resource and 2) a public good with the positive externality of building herd immunity. These features are expected to drive citizens’ attitudes in opposite directions, exclusionist and inclusionist, respectively. Scarcity would drive citizens’ exclusionism, while the positive externality might mitigate exclusionism. Setting and design We recruited 15,000 Japanese adults and asked them to rank, in the context of a COVID-19 vaccine shortage, the deservingness of hypothetical vaccine recipients who differed according to 1) citizenship status, 2) visa type and duration of stay (if foreign), 3) occupation, 4) age, 5) whether they lived with a child, and 6) whether they lived with an elderly individual. Citizenship options were Japanese, Chinese, Taiwanese, South Korean, American, or European. The occupations were healthcare, education, other employed, self-employed, or not employed. The 6 attributes were randomly combined, and respondents were shown 3 hypothetical vaccine recipients: one was Japanese, and the others were foreigners. Treatments First, through a conjoint design, we created hypothetical vaccine recipients whose attributes were randomized except for the benchmark citizenship, Japanese national. Second, we randomly presented two scenarios for vaccination payments: 1) billed at cost or 2) fully subsidized by the government. Results 1) Whether the vaccines were billed at cost or fully subsidized did not affect the rankings of deservingness. 2) Japanese citizenship was prioritized. 3) The penalty for being a foreigner was higher for individuals from nations with which Japan has geopolitical tensions. 4) Working in health or education reduced the penalty on foreigners, indicating that the positive externality related to occupation amplifies the positive externality associated with vaccination and mitigates exclusionist attitudes. Conclusions The positive occupational externalities that amplify the positive externality of vaccination substantially allay the foreigner penalty.
Collapse
|
24
|
Michlmayr D, Hansen CH, Gubbels SM, Valentiner-Branth P, Bager P, Obel N, Drewes B, Møller CH, Møller FT, Legarth R, Mølbak K, Ethelberg S. Observed protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection following a primary infection: A Danish cohort study among unvaccinated using two years of nationwide PCR-test data. Lancet Reg Health Eur 2022; 20:100452. [PMID: 35791335 PMCID: PMC9245510 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Background The level of protection after a SARS-CoV-2 infection against reinfection and COVID-19 disease remains important with much of the world still unvaccinated. Methods Analysing nationwide, individually referable, Danish register data including RT-PCR-test results, we conducted a cohort study using Cox regression to compare SARS-CoV-2 infection rates before and after a primary infection among still unvaccinated individuals, adjusting for sex, age, comorbidity and residency region. Estimates of protection against infection were calculated as 1 minus the hazard ratio. Estimates of protection against symptomatic infections and infections leading to hospitalisation were also calculated. The prevalence of infections classified as symptomatic or asymptomatic was compared for primary infections and reinfections. The study also assessed protection against each of the main viral variants after a primary infection with an earlier variant by restricting follow-up time to distinct, mutually exclusive periods during which each variant dominated. Findings Until 1 July 2021 the estimated protection against reinfection was 83.4% (95%CI: 82.2-84.6%); but lower for the 65+ year-olds (72.2%; 95%CI: 53.2-81.0%). Moderately higher estimates were found for protection against symptomatic disease, 88.3% overall (95%CI: 85.9-90.3%). First-time cases who reported no symptoms were more likely to experience a reinfection (odds ratio: 1.48; 95%CI: 1.35-1.62). By autumn 2021, when infections were almost exclusively caused by the Delta variant, the estimated protection following a recent first infection was 91.3% (95%CI: 89.7-92.7%) compared to 71.4% (95%CI: 66.9-75.3%) after a first infection over a year earlier. With Omicron, a first infection with an earlier variant in the past 3-6 months gave an estimated 51.0% (95%CI: 50.1-52.0%) protection, whereas a first infection longer than 12 months earlier provided only 19.0% (95%CI: 17.2-20.5%) protection. Protection by an earlier variant-infection against hospitalisation due to a new infection was estimated at: 86.6% (95%CI: 46.3-96.7%) for Alpha, 97.2% (95%CI: 89.0-99.3%) for Delta, and 69.8% (95%CI: 51.5-81.2%) for the Omicron variant. Interpretation SARS-CoV-2 infection offered a high level of sustained protection against reinfection, comparable with that offered by vaccines, but decreased with the introduction of new main virus variants; dramatically so when Omicron appeared. Protection was lower among the elderly but appeared more pronounced following symptomatic compared to asymptomatic infections. The level of estimated protection against serious disease was somewhat higher than that against infection and possibly longer lasting. Decreases in protection against reinfection, seemed primarily to be driven by viral evolution. Funding None.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Daniela Michlmayr
- Department of Bacteria, Parasites and Fungi, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
- European Programme for Public Health Microbiology Training (EUPHEM), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Gustav III:s Boulevard 40, 16973 Solna, Sweden
| | - Christian Holm Hansen
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
- MRC International Statistics and Epidemiology Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sophie Madeleine Gubbels
- Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
| | - Palle Valentiner-Branth
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
| | - Peter Bager
- Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
| | - Niels Obel
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Camilla Holten Møller
- Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
| | - Frederik Trier Møller
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
| | - Rebecca Legarth
- Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
| | - Kåre Mølbak
- Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Grønnegårdsvej 15, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Steen Ethelberg
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, Global Health Section, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1014 København K, Denmark
- Corresponding author at: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, 5 Artillerivej, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark.
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Goh FT, Chew YZ, Tam CC, Yung CF, Clapham H. A country-specific model of COVID-19 vaccination coverage needed for herd immunity in adult only or population wide vaccination programme. Epidemics 2022; 39:100581. [PMID: 35636311 PMCID: PMC9119722 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Revised: 01/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
We present a country specific method to calculate the COVID-19 vaccination coverage needed for herd immunity by considering age structure, age group-specific contact patterns, relative infectivity and susceptibility of children to adults, vaccination effectiveness and seroprevalence prior to vaccination. We find that across all six countries, vaccination of adults age 60 and above has little impact on Reff and this is could be due to the smaller number of contacts between this age group and the rest of the population according to the contact matrices used. If R0 is above 6, herd immunity by vaccine alone is unattainable for most countries either if vaccination is only available for adults or that vaccine effectiveness is lower at 65% against symptomatic infections. In this situation, additional control measures, booster shots, if they improve protection against infection, or the extension of vaccination to children, are required. For a highly transmissible variant with R0 up to 8, herd immunity is possible for all countries and for all four scenarios of varying relative infectivity and susceptibility of children compared to adults, if vaccine effectiveness is very high at 95% against symptomatic infections and that high vaccination coverage is achieved for both adults and children. In addition, we show that the effective reproduction number will vary between countries even if the same proportion of the population is vaccinated, depending on the demographics, the contact rates and the previous pre-vaccination seroprevalence in the country. This therefore means that care must be taken in extrapolating population level impacts of certain vaccine coverages from one country to another.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fang Ting Goh
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Yi Zhen Chew
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Clarence C. Tam
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Chee Fu Yung
- Infectious Disease Service, KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Singapore,Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore,Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Imperial College, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
| | - Hannah Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore,Correspondence to: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, Tahir Foundation Building (MD1), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Davido B, Dumas L, Rottman M. Modelling the Omicron wave in France in early 2022: Balancing herd immunity with protecting the most vulnerable. J Travel Med 2022; 29:6515802. [PMID: 35085384 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2022] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern is driving the COVID pandemic at a pace never seen before. When the threat of overwhelming healthcare systems balances the hope of achieving herd immunity, providing booster shots and vaccinating fragile individuals can still be attempted in France to prevent death and hospitalizations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Davido
- Maladies infectieuses, GH Université Paris-Saclay, AP-HP Hôpital Raymond Poincaré, Garches, France.,Université de Versailles-Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, UFR des Sciences de la Santé, UMR INSERM UVSQ U1173, France
| | - Laurent Dumas
- Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Versailles, UVSQ, CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay, Versailles, France
| | - Martin Rottman
- Université de Versailles-Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, UFR des Sciences de la Santé, UMR INSERM UVSQ U1173, France.,Laboratoire de Microbiologie, GH Université Paris-Saclay, AP-HP, Hôpital Raymond Poincaré, Garches, France
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Grayson KL, Hiliker AK, Wares JR. R Markdown as a dynamic interface for teaching: Modules from math and biology classrooms. Math Biosci 2022; 349:108844. [PMID: 35623397 PMCID: PMC9487201 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2022.108844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
Advancing technologies, including interactive tools, are changing classroom pedagogy across academia. Here, we discuss the R Markdown interface, which allows for the creation of partial or complete interactive classroom modules for courses using the R programming language. R Markdown files mix sections of R code with formatted text, including LaTeX, which are rendered together to form complete reports and documents. These features allow instructors to create classroom modules that guide students through concepts, while providing areas for coding and text response by students. Students can also learn to create their own reports for more independent assignments. After presenting the features and uses of R Markdown to enhance teaching and learning, we present examples of materials from two courses. In a Computational Modeling course for math students, we used R Markdown to guide students through exploring mathematical models to understand the principle of herd immunity. In a Data Visualization and Communication course for biology students, we used R Markdown for teaching the fundamentals of R programming and graphing, and for students to learn to create reproducible data investigations. Through these examples, we demonstrate the benefits of R Markdown as a dynamic teaching and learning tool.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Angela K Hiliker
- Department of Biology, University of Richmond, United States of America
| | - Joanna R Wares
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Richmond, United States of America.
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Tamang ST, Dorji T. COVID-19 vaccinations in Bhutan - Mix-and-Match to Boosters: An experience. Vaccine 2022; 40:3089-3092. [PMID: 35487809 PMCID: PMC9023324 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.04.059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2021] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Bhutan - a landlocked least developed country in the Himalayas - vaccinated 94% of its adults with the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine in March-April 2021, 90.2% with second dose in July 2021, and 89.1% with booster (third) dose by March 2022. The country used COVISHIELD (Oxford-Astrazeneca) vaccine for the first dose but decided to pursue a heterologous prime-boost strategy ("mix-and-match") for the second dose using Moderna's mRNA vaccine for adults. Bhutan rapidly rolled out Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for 12 to 17-year-olds through a school-based vaccination strategy followed by booster doses: 78.6% of adolescents aged 12-17 years were vaccinated with the first dose by August 2021, 92.8% with second dose by November 2021, and 79.7% with booster (third) dose by March 2022. More than 97% of children aged 5 to 11 years have received Pfizer's Comirnaty vaccine for their first dose. Bhutan is steadily vaccinating its population and might soon become one of the few least developed countries to achieve herd immunity-level vaccination coverage with more than 80% of its population fully vaccinated.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Thinley Dorji
- Jigme Dorji Wangchuck National Referral Hospital, Thimphu, Bhutan; Kidu Mobile Medical Unit, His Majesty's People's Project, Thimphu, Bhutan
| |
Collapse
|
29
|
Abstract
In bioethics vaccine refusal is often discussed as an instance of free riding on the herd immunity of an infectious disease. However, the social science of vaccine refusal suggests that the reasoning behind refusal to vaccinate more often stems from previous negative experiences in healthcare practice as well as deeply felt distrust of healthcare institutions. Moreover, vaccine refusal often acts like an exit mechanism. Whilst free riding is often met with sanctions, exit, according to Albert Hirschman's theory of exit and voice is most efficiently met by addressing concerns and increasing the quality and number of feedback channels. If the legitimate grievances responsible for vaccine refusal are not heard or addressed by healthcare policy, further polarization of attitudes to vaccines is likely to ensue. Thus, there is a need in the bioethics of vaccine refusal to understand the diverse ethical questions of this inflammable issue in addition to those of individual responsibility to vaccinate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kaisa Kärki
- Practical Philosophy, University of Helsinki, PL 24, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.
| |
Collapse
|
30
|
Coccia M. Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis. Environ Res 2022; 204:112314. [PMID: 34736923 PMCID: PMC8560189 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 39.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 10/26/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mario Coccia
- CNR -- National Research Council of Italy, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Via Real Collegio, n. 30, 10024, Moncalieri, TO, Italy.
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Tanaka M, Okubo R, Hoshi SL, Ishikawa N, Kondo M. Cost-effectiveness of pertussis booster vaccination for preschool children in Japan. Vaccine 2022; 40:1010-8. [PMID: 35039195 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.01.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Revised: 12/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Japan currently recommends four doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine in its routine vaccination program, but the introduction of a fifth dose is currently under consideration. An objective of the booster vaccination is to prevent severe cases of pertussis in infants through herd immunity. Thus, the aim of this analysis was to demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of a fifth-dose of the DTaP vaccine for 6-year-old children, taking herd immunity for unvaccinated infants into account. METHOD An economic model analysis was conducted comparing the cost and effectiveness of the two strategies based on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the booster strategy to the no booster strategy. This model contained two sub-models: one for children aged 6 years or older and one for infants under 3 months old. Herd immunity for infants is modeled as when siblings in the same family are infected. RESULTS The ICER was JPY 71,605,491 (USD 656,931) per QALY gained from the societal perspective, and 7.10% of incremental QALYs (0.0000934) were from a reduction in infant infection. In the sensitivity analysis, no variables moved the ICER under the threshold (JPY 5,000,000 per QALY gained), and the duration of pertussis disease and the incidence rate of pertussis had a significant impact on the ICER. When the disease burden of pertussis decreased, the booster strategy resulted in fewer QALYs gained and greater costs compared with the no booster strategy. CONCLUSION The introduction of a DTaP booster vaccination to the routine immunization schedule can be expected to reduce the number of pertussis cases in the target population. However, our study showed that adding a booster vaccination for 6-year-old children to the schedule in Japan would not be cost-effective in terms of achieving herd immunity among unvaccinated infants.
Collapse
|
32
|
Prete CA, Buss LF, Buccheri R, Abrahim CMM, Salomon T, Crispim MAE, Oikawa MK, Grebe E, da Costa AG, Fraiji NA, do P S S Carvalho M, Whittaker C, Alexander N, Faria NR, Dye C, Nascimento VH, Busch MP, Sabino EC. Reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in blood donors in Manaus, Brazil. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:127. [PMID: 35123418 PMCID: PMC8817641 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07094-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The city of Manaus, north Brazil, was stricken by a second epidemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 despite high seroprevalence estimates, coinciding with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant. Reinfections were postulated as a partial explanation for the second surge. However, accurate calculation of reinfection rates is difficult when stringent criteria as two time-separated RT-PCR tests and/or genome sequencing are required. To estimate the proportion of reinfections caused by Gamma during the second wave in Manaus and the protection conferred by previous infection, we identified anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody boosting in repeat blood donors as a mean to infer reinfection. METHODS We tested serial blood samples from unvaccinated repeat blood donors in Manaus for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using two assays that display waning in early convalescence, enabling the detection of reinfection-induced boosting. Donors were required to have three or more donations, being at least one during each epidemic wave. We propose a strict serological definition of reinfection (reactivity boosting following waning like a V-shaped curve in both assays or three spaced boostings), probable (two separate boosting events) and possible (reinfection detected by only one assay) reinfections. The serial samples were used to divide donors into six groups defined based on the inferred sequence of infection and reinfection with non-Gamma and Gamma variants. RESULTS From 3655 repeat blood donors, 238 met all inclusion criteria, and 223 had enough residual sample volume to perform both serological assays. We found 13.6% (95% CI 7.0-24.5%) of all presumed Gamma infections that were observed in 2021 were reinfections. If we also include cases of probable or possible reinfections, these percentages increase respectively to 22.7% (95% CI 14.3-34.2%) and 39.3% (95% CI 29.5-50.0%). Previous infection conferred a protection against reinfection of 85.3% (95% CI 71.3-92.7%), decreasing to respectively 72.5% (95% CI 54.7-83.6%) and 39.5% (95% CI 14.1-57.8%) if probable and possible reinfections are included. CONCLUSIONS Reinfection by Gamma is common and may play a significant role in epidemics where Gamma is prevalent, highlighting the continued threat variants of concern pose even to settings previously hit by substantial epidemics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carlos A Prete
- Department of Electronic Systems Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, Travessa 3, São Paulo, 158, Brazil
| | - Lewis F Buss
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitarias, Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho 470, 1º andar, São Paulo, 05403-000, Brazil
| | - Renata Buccheri
- Vitalant Research Institute, 270 Masonic Avenue, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Claudia M M Abrahim
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Av. Constantino Nery, Manaus, 4397, Brazil
| | - Tassila Salomon
- Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Alameda Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, 275, Brazil
| | - Myuki A E Crispim
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Av. Constantino Nery, Manaus, 4397, Brazil
| | - Marcio K Oikawa
- Center of Mathematics, Computing and Cognition, Universidade Federal do ABC, Rua Arcturus, 03, São Bernardo do Campo, Brasil
| | - Eduard Grebe
- Vitalant Research Institute, 270 Masonic Avenue, San Francisco, CA, USA
- University of California San Francisco, 1001 Potrero Ave, San Francisco, CA, USA
- SACEMA, Stellenbosch University, 19 Jonkershoek Rd, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Allyson G da Costa
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Av. Constantino Nery, Manaus, 4397, Brazil
| | - Nelson A Fraiji
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Av. Constantino Nery, Manaus, 4397, Brazil
| | - Maria do P S S Carvalho
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Av. Constantino Nery, Manaus, 4397, Brazil
| | - Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Neal Alexander
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, LSHTM, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Nuno R Faria
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitarias, Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho 470, 1º andar, São Paulo, 05403-000, Brazil
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Christopher Dye
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Vítor H Nascimento
- Department of Electronic Systems Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, Travessa 3, São Paulo, 158, Brazil
| | - Michael P Busch
- Vitalant Research Institute, 270 Masonic Avenue, San Francisco, CA, USA
- University of California San Francisco, 1001 Potrero Ave, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Ester Cerdeira Sabino
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitarias, Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho 470, 1º andar, São Paulo, 05403-000, Brazil.
| |
Collapse
|
33
|
Dassarma B, Tripathy S, Chabalala M, Matsabisa MG. Challenges in Establishing Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity through Age Specific Community Vaccinations. Aging Dis 2022; 13:29-36. [PMID: 35111360 PMCID: PMC8782562 DOI: 10.14336/ad.2021.0611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 06/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Presently, the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic is driving the world towards a devastating total failure of the healthcare system. The purpose of the review is to search for the studies reporting on the implication of herd immunity into a naïve population through age specific mass vaccination. This review is based on selected publications on the effect herd immunity to COVID 19 in communities. We searched published scientific articles, review articles, reports, published in 2020 as well as read some basic, cult publications related to establishment of indirect immunity to a population. We have focused on use of application of vaccine induced herd immunity into community to confer indirect immunity against COVID-19 and searched on electronic databases, including PubMed (http://www.pubmed.com), Scopus (http://www.scopus.com), Google Scholar (http://www.scholar.google.com), Web of Science (www.webofscience.com) and Science Direct by using key words such as Herd immunity, indirect or passive immunization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), severe acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and immune-technique. This review proposes the implication of mass vaccination-induced herd immunity in a population to curb the infection, and to every individual in a given population irrespective of their age.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Barsha Dassarma
- Department of Pharmacology, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein9300, SA
| | - Satyajit Tripathy
- Department of Pharmacology, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein9300, SA
| | - Matimbha Chabalala
- Department of Pharmacology, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein9300, SA
| | - Motlalepula Gilbert Matsabisa
- Department of Pharmacology, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein9300, SA
| |
Collapse
|
34
|
Liu H, Zhang J, Cai J, Deng X, Peng C, Chen X, Yang J, Wu Q, Chen X, Chen Z, Zheng W, Viboud C, Zhang W, Ajelli M, Yu H. Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China. BMC Med 2022; 20:37. [PMID: 35094714 PMCID: PMC8801316 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02243-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2021] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs. METHODS We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. Two vaccination programs were tested and model-based estimates of the immunity level in the population were provided. RESULTS We found that it is unlikely to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relatively low efficacy of the vaccines used in China throughout 2021 and the lack of prior natural immunity. We estimated that, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 90% against the infection, vaccine-induced herd immunity would require a coverage of 93% or higher of the Chinese population. However, even when vaccine-induced herd immunity is not reached, we estimated that vaccination programs can reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 50-62% in case of an all-or-nothing vaccine model and an epidemic starts to unfold on December 1, 2021. CONCLUSIONS Efforts should be taken to increase population's confidence and willingness to be vaccinated and to develop highly efficacious vaccines for a wide age range.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hengcong Liu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Juanjuan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jun Cai
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiaowei Deng
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Cheng Peng
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Xinghui Chen
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Juan Yang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qianhui Wu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Xinhua Chen
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhiyuan Chen
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Wen Zheng
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Cécile Viboud
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Wenhong Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Hongjie Yu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
| |
Collapse
|
35
|
Suzuki A, Nishiura H. Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: an elevation of age at infection. PeerJ 2022; 10:e12767. [PMID: 35111401 PMCID: PMC8783564 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Japan, routine two-dose immunization against varicella has been conducted among children at ages of 12 and 36 months since 2014, and the vaccination coverage has reached around 90%. To understand the impact of routine varicella vaccination, we reconstructed the epidemiological dynamics of varicella in Japan. METHODS Epidemiological and demographic datasets over the past three decades were analyzed to reconstruct the number of susceptible individuals by age and year. To estimate the annual risk of varicella infection, we fitted a balance equation model to the annual number of cases from 1990 to 2019. Using parameter estimates, we reconstructed varicella dynamics starting from 1990 and modeled future dynamics until 2033. RESULTS Overall varicella incidence declined over time and the annual risk of infection among children younger than 10 years old decreased monotonically starting in 2014. Conversely, varicella incidence among teenagers (age 10 to 14 years) has increased each year since 2014. A substantial number of unvaccinated individuals born before the routine immunization era remained susceptible and aged without contracting varicella, while the annual risk of infection among teenagers aged 10 to 14 years increased starting in 2011 despite gradual expansion of varicella vaccine coverage. The number of susceptible individuals decreased over time in all age groups. Modeling indicated that susceptibility rates among pre-school children aged 1 to 4 years will remain low. CONCLUSION Routine varicella vaccination has successfully reduced infections in pre-school and early primary school age children, but has also resulted in increased infection rates among adolescents. This temporary increase was caused both by the increased age of susceptible individuals and increased transmission risk among adolescents resulting from the dynamic nature of varicella transmission. Monitoring susceptibility among adolescents will be important to prevent outbreaks over the next decade.
Collapse
|
36
|
Arabe Filho MF, Megid J, Carneiro DMVF, Carneiro EW, Mioni MDSR. Diagnosis failure of bovine leukosis: serology variation during the peripartum period. Braz J Microbiol 2022; 53:513-516. [PMID: 35040092 PMCID: PMC8882516 DOI: 10.1007/s42770-022-00679-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2021] [Accepted: 12/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
This study demonstrates the influence of pregnancy on serum diagnosis of enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL), emphasizing the importance of routine testing to maintain herd health. For this, 143 pregnant cows were sampled in duplicate (30 days before and 15 days after calving). For EBL diagnosis, samples were submitted to agar gel immunodiffusion testing (AGID). Different results were observed before and after delivery in seventy-six serum samples (53.15%), indicating variations in the levels of serum globulins in the blood during the peripartum period. Therefore, using a single sample for serological diagnosis during the birth season might not represent the correct infection status of animal health due to physiological variations in antibody concentrations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Marcelo Fagali Arabe Filho
- Department of Animal Production and Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, SP Brazil
| | - Jane Megid
- Department of Animal Production and Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, SP Brazil
| | | | | | - Mateus de Souza Ribeiro Mioni
- Department of Animal Production and Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, SP Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
Mukherjee S, Kumar Ray S. Challenges in Engendering Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection: Possibly Impossible but Plausibility with Hope. Infect Disord Drug Targets 2022; 22:e170122200309. [PMID: 35040409 DOI: 10.2174/1871526522666220117153838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2021] [Revised: 11/02/2021] [Accepted: 11/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Herd immunity scaled to the population level is what gives rise to herd immunity. When a sufficiently significant fraction of immune individuals exist in a group, it confers indirect protection from infection to vulnerable individuals. This population-level effect is frequently considered in the context of vaccination programs, which attempt to build herd immunity so that people who cannot be vaccinated, such as the very young or those with impaired immune systems, are nonetheless protected from disease. Clinical signs are a poor predictor of transmissibility for some infections, such as COVID-19, because asymptomatic hosts can be extremely infectious and contribute to the spread of the virus. COVID-19 is a quickly evolving issue that has been widely circulated throughout the world. The concept of herd immunity is frequently stated during this time, although it is readily misconstrued. The concept of herd immunity is frequently stated during this time, although it is readily misconstrued. This article elaborates on the idea and goal of herd immunity, the necessary conditions for realizing herd immunity, the restrictive requirements for applying herd immunity, and the obstacles experienced in achieving herd immunity in the context of COVID-19. This mini article explains the concept and purpose of herd immunization in the context of COVID-19.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sukhes Mukherjee
- Department of Biochemistry All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh-462020. India
| | | |
Collapse
|
38
|
Ohm M, Knol MJ, Vos ERA, Bogaard MJM, van Rooijen DM, Sanders EAM, de Melker HE, van der Klis FRM, Berbers GAM. Seroprevalence of meningococcal ACWY antibodies across the population in the Netherlands: Two consecutive surveys in 2016/17 and 2020. Vaccine 2022; 40:59-66. [PMID: 34839991 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Revised: 11/11/2021] [Accepted: 11/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) vaccination was introduced for 14-month-olds in the Netherlands in 2002, alongside a mass campaign for 1-18 year-olds. Due to an outbreak of serogroup W disease, MenC vaccination was replaced for MenACWY vaccination in 2018, next to introduction of a booster at 14 years of age and a catch-up campaign for 14-18 year-olds. We assessed meningococcal ACWY antibodies across the Dutch population in 2016/17 and 2020. METHODS In a nationwide cross-sectional serosurvey in 2016/17, sera from participants aged 0-89 years (n = 6886) were tested for MenACWY-polysaccharide-specific (PS) serum IgG concentrations, and functional MenACWY antibody titers were determined in subsets. Moreover, longitudinal samples collected in 2020 (n = 1782) were measured for MenACWY-PS serum IgG concentrations. RESULTS MenC antibody levels were low, except in recently vaccinated 14-23 month-olds and individuals who were vaccinated as teenagers in 2002, with seroprevalence of 59% and 20-46%, respectively. Meningococcal AWY antibody levels were overall low both in 2016/17 and in 2020. Naturally-acquired MenW immunity was limited in 2020 despite the recent serogroup W outbreak. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates waning of MenC immunity 15 years after a mass campaign in the Netherlands. Furthermore, it highlights the lack of meningococcal AWY immunity across the population and underlines the importance of the recently introduced MenACWY (booster) vaccination.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Milou Ohm
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Mirjam J Knol
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
| | - Eric R A Vos
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Marjan J M Bogaard
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Debbie M van Rooijen
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Elisabeth A M Sanders
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Hester E de Melker
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Fiona R M van der Klis
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Guy A M Berbers
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
39
|
Ferrante L, Duczmal LH, Steinmetz WA, Almeida ACL, Leão J, Vassão RC, Tupinambás U, Fearnside PM. Brazil's COVID-19 Epicenter in Manaus: How Much of the Population Has Already Been Exposed and Are Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2? J Racial Ethn Health Disparities 2022; 9:2098-2104. [PMID: 34590244 PMCID: PMC8480276 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-021-01148-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2021] [Revised: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Is Brazil's COVID-19 epicenter really approaching herd immunity? A recent study estimated that in October 2020 three-quarters of the population of Manaus (the capital of the largest state in the Brazilian Amazon) had contact with SARS-CoV-2. We show that 46% of the Manaus population having had contact with SARS-CoV-2 at that time is a more plausible estimate, and that Amazonia is still far from herd immunity. The second wave of COVID-19 is now evident in Manaus. We predict that the pandemic of COVID-19 will continue throughout 2021, given the duration of naturally acquired immunity of only 240 days and the slow pace of vaccination. Manaus has a large percentage of the population that is susceptible (35 to 45% as of May 17, 2021). Against this backdrop, measures to restrict urban mobility and social isolation are still necessary, such as the closure of schools and universities, since the resumption of these activities in 2020 due to the low attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 was the main trigger for the second wave in Manaus.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Ferrante
- Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Biologia (Ecologia), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Amazonas Brazil
| | - Luiz Henrique Duczmal
- Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | | | - Jeremias Leão
- Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal Do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, Amazonas Brazil
| | - Ruth Camargo Vassão
- Retired From the Cell Biology Laboratory of the Instituto Butantan - São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Unaí Tupinambás
- Department of Internal Medicine, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Philip Martin Fearnside
- Departamento de Dinâmica Ambiental, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Amazonas Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
40
|
Dankwa EA, Donnelly CA, Brouwer AF, Zhao R, Montgomery MP, Weng MK, Martin NK. Estimating vaccination threshold and impact in the 2017-2019 hepatitis A virus outbreak among persons experiencing homelessness or who use drugs in Louisville, Kentucky, United States. Vaccine 2021; 39:7182-7190. [PMID: 34686394 PMCID: PMC9128446 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.10.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Between September 2017 and June 2019, an outbreak of hepatitis A virus (HAV) occurred in Louisville, Kentucky, resulting in 501 cases and 6 deaths, predominantly among persons who experience homelessness or who use drugs (PEH/PWUD). The critical vaccination threshold (Vc) required to achieve herd immunity in this population is unknown. We investigated Vc and vaccination impact using epidemic modeling. METHODS To determine which population subgroups had high infection risks, we employed a technique based on comparing the proportion of cases arising before and after the epidemic peak, across subgroups. We also developed a dynamic deterministic model of HAV transmission among PEH/PWUD to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), herd immunity threshold, Vc and the effect of timing of the vaccination intervention on epidemic and economic outcomes. RESULTS Of the 501 confirmed or probable cases, 385 (76.8%) were among PEH/PWUD. Among PEH/PWUD and within the general population, homelessness was a significant risk factor for infection in the initial stages of the outbreak (odds ratios for homeless versus not homeless: 2.62; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62-4.25 for PEH/PWUD and 2.39; 95% CI: 1.51-3.78 for all detected cases). Our estimate for R0 ranges between 2.85 and 3.54, corresponding to an estimate of 69% (95% CI: 65-72) for herd immunity threshold and 76% (95% CI: 72%-80%) for Vc, assuming a vaccine with 90% efficacy. The observed vaccination program was estimated to have averted 30 hospitalizations (95% CI: 19-43), associated with over US$490 000 (95% CI: $310 000-700 000) in hospitalization cost. Greater impact was observed with earlier and faster vaccination implementation. CONCLUSIONS Vaccination coverage of at least 77% is likely required to prevent outbreaks of HAV among PEH/PWUD in Louisville, assuming a 90% vaccine efficacy. Proactive hepatitis A vaccination programs among PEH/PWUD will maximize health and economic benefits of these programs and reduce the likelihood of another outbreak.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emmanuelle A Dankwa
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, 24-29 St Giles', Oxford OX1 3LB, UK.
| | - Christl A Donnelly
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, 24-29 St Giles', Oxford OX1 3LB, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Andrew F Brouwer
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029, USA
| | - Rui Zhao
- Louisville Metro Department of Public Health and Wellness, 400 E Gray St, Louisville, KY 40202, USA
| | - Martha P Montgomery
- Division of Viral Hepatitis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Mailstop US12-3, Atlanta, GA 30329-4018, USA
| | - Mark K Weng
- Division of Viral Hepatitis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Mailstop US12-3, Atlanta, GA 30329-4018, USA
| | - Natasha K Martin
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, CA 92093, USA; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Queens Road Bristol BS8 1QU, UK
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
Abstract
The World Health Organization described herd immunity, also known as population immunity, as the indirect fortification from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous exposure to infection. The emergence of COVID-19 vaccine is a step towards the achievement of herd immunity. Over one billion people across the globe have been vaccinated and Africa recorded only 2%. The objective of this article was to develop a forecast of the number of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity in the 13 WHO-identified priority African countries for COVID-19. Herd immunity is achieved when one infected person in a population causes less than one secondary case on average, corresponding to the effective basic reproduction number (R0). Vaccine delivery and distribution infrastructure including the cold chain remains weak. Vaccine hesitancy is also one of the limiting factors that may hinder herd immunity in Africa. In order to achieve herd immunity globally, African countries should not be excluded in fair and equal distribution of vaccines. Relevant stakeholders should foster commitment as well as community sensitization on COVID-19 vaccines and integration of COVID-19 vaccines in existing healthcare services.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Faculty of Management and Development Studies, University of the Philippines Open University, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
| | | | | | | | - Xu Lin
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Hao Li
- Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| |
Collapse
|
42
|
Khrennikov A. Ultrametric diffusion equation on energy landscape to model disease spread in hierarchic socially clustered population. Physica A 2021; 583:126284. [PMID: 34312573 PMCID: PMC8294751 DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2020] [Revised: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
We present a new mathematical model of disease spread reflecting some specialties of the COVID-19 epidemic by elevating the role of hierarchic social clustering of population. The model can be used to explain slower approaching herd immunity, e.g., in Sweden, than it was predicted by a variety of other mathematical models and was expected by epidemiologists; see graphs Fig. 1, 2. The hierarchic structure of social clusters is mathematically modeled with ultrametric spaces having treelike geometry. To simplify mathematics, we consider trees with the constant number p > 1 of branches leaving each vertex. Such trees are endowed with an algebraic structure, these are p -adic number fields. We apply theory of the p -adic diffusion equation to describe a virus spread in hierarchically clustered population. This equation has applications to statistical physics and microbiology for modeling dynamics on energy landscapes. To move from one social cluster (valley) to another, a virus (its carrier) should cross a social barrier between them. The magnitude of a barrier depends on the number of social hierarchy's levels composing this barrier. We consider linearly increasing barriers. A virus spreads rather easily inside a social cluster (say working collective), but jumps to other clusters are constrained by social barriers. This behavior matches with the COVID-19 epidemic, with its cluster spreading structure. Our model differs crucially from the standard mathematical models of spread of disease, such as the SIR-model; in particular, by notion of the probability to be infected (at time t in a social cluster C ). We present socio-medical specialties of the COVID-19 epidemic supporting our model.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrei Khrennikov
- Linnaeus University, International Center for Mathematical Modeling in Physics and Cognitive Sciences Växjö, SE 351 95, Sweden
| |
Collapse
|
43
|
Loeb M, Russell ML, Kelly-Stradiotto C, Fuller N, Fonseca K, Earn DJD, Chokani K, Babiuk L, Neupane B, Singh P, Pullenayegum E. Adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine versus quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Hutterite Children: A randomized clinical trial. Vaccine 2021; 39:6843-51. [PMID: 34702621 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.10.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Children play an important role in the transmission of influenza. The best choice of vaccine to achieve both direct and indirect protection is uncertain. The objective of the study was to test whether vaccinating children with MF59 adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) can reduce influenza in children and their extended households compared to inactivated quadrivalent vaccine (QIV). METHODS We conducted a cluster randomized trial in 42 Hutterite colonies in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Colonies were randomized such that children were assigned in a blinded manner to receive aTIV (0.25 ml of pediatric aTIV for ages 6 months to < 36 months or 0.5 ml for ages ≥ 36 months to 6 years) or 0.5 ml of QIV. Participants included 424 children aged 6 months to 6 years who received the study vaccine and 1246 family cluster members who did not receive the study vaccine. The primary outcome was confirmed influenza A and B infection using a real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. An intent to treat analysis was used. Data were collected from January 2017 to June 2019. RESULTS The mean percentage of children who received study vaccine was 62% for aTIV colonies and 74% for QIV colonies. There were 66 (3.4%) with RT-PCR confirmed influenza A and B in the aTIV colonies (children and family clusters) versus 93 (4.4%) in the QIV colonies, hazard ratio (HR) 0.78 (95 %CI 0.36-1.71). Of these, 48 (2.5%) in the aTIV colonies and 76 (3.6%) in the QIV colonies had influenza A, HR 0.69, (95 %CI 0.29-1.66) while 18 (0.9%) and 17 (0.8%) in the aTIV versus QIV colonies respectively had influenza B, HR 1.22, (95 %CI 0.20-7.41). In children who received study vaccine, there were 5 Influenza A infections in the aTIV colonies (1.1%) compared to 30 (5.8%) in the QIV colonies, relative efficacy of 80%, HR 0.20, (95 %CI 0.06-0.66). Adverse events were significantly more common among children who received aTIV. No serious vaccine adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION Vaccinating children with aTIV compared to QIV resulted in similar community RT-PCR confirmed influenza illness and led to significant protection against influenza A in children.
Collapse
|
44
|
Sasaki S, Saito T, Ohtake F. Nudges for COVID-19 voluntary vaccination: How to explain peer information? Soc Sci Med 2021; 292:114561. [PMID: 34823128 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2021] [Revised: 11/07/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Vaccination promotion is a crucial strategy to end the COVID-19 pandemic; however, individual autonomy should also be respected. This study aimed to discover other-regarding information nudges that can reinforce people's intention to receive the COVID-19 vaccine without impeding their autonomous decision-making. In March 2021, we conducted an online experiment with 1595 people living throughout Japan, and randomly assigned them either of one control group and three treatment groups that received messages differently describing peer information: control, comparison, influence-gain, and influence-loss. We compared each message's effects on vaccination intention, autonomous decision-making, and emotional response. We found that the influence-gain nudge was effective in increasing the number of older adults who newly decided to receive the vaccine. The comparison and influence-loss nudges further reinforced the intention of older adults who had already planned to receive it. However, the influence-loss nudge, which conveys similar information to the influence-gain nudge but with loss-framing, increased viewers' negative emotion. These messages had no promoting effect for young adults with lower vaccination intentions at baseline. Based on the findings, we propose governments should use different messages depending on their purposes and targets, such as comparison instead of influence-loss, to encourage voluntary vaccination behavior.
Collapse
|
45
|
McMillan M, Marshall HS, Richmond P. 4CMenB vaccine and its role in preventing transmission and inducing herd immunity. Expert Rev Vaccines 2021; 21:103-114. [PMID: 34747302 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2022.2003708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION : Vaccination is the most effective method of protecting people from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Of all the capsular groups, B is the most common cause of invasive meningococcal disease in many parts of the world. Despite this, adolescent meningococcal B vaccine programs have not been implemented globally, partly due to the lack of evidence for herd immunity afforded by meningococcal B vaccines. AREAS COVERED This review aims to synthesise the available evidence on recombinant 4CMenB vaccines' ability to reduce pharyngeal carriage and therefore provide indirect (herd) immunity against IMD. EXPERT OPINION There is some evidence that the 4CMenB vaccine may induce cross-protection against non-B carriage of meningococci. However, the overall body of evidence does not support a clinically significant reduction in carriage of disease-associated or group B meningococci following 4CMenB vaccination. No additional cost-benefit from herd immunity effects should be included when modelling the cost-effectiveness of 4CMenB vaccine programs against group B IMD. 4CMenB immunisation programs should focus on direct (individual) protection for groups at greatest risk of meningococcal disease. Future meningococcal B and combination vaccines being developed should consider the impact of the vaccine on carriage as part of their clinical evaluation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mark McMillan
- Vaccinology and Immunology Research Trials Unit, Women's and Children's Health Network, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.,Robinson Research Institute and Adelaide Medical School, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Helen S Marshall
- Vaccinology and Immunology Research Trials Unit, Women's and Children's Health Network, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.,Robinson Research Institute and Adelaide Medical School, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Peter Richmond
- Division of Paediatrics, School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Department of General Paediatrics and Immunology, Perth Children's Hospital.,Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kid's Institute, Perth, Western Australia
| |
Collapse
|
46
|
Abstract
A particularly strong reason to vaccinate against transmittable diseases, based on considerations of harm, is to contribute to the realization of population-level herd immunity. We argue, however, that herd immunity alone is insufficient for deriving a strong harm-based moral obligation to vaccinate in all circumstances, since the obligation significantly weakens well above and well below the herd immunity threshold. The paper offers two additional harm-based arguments that, together with the herd immunity argument, consolidates our moral obligation. First, we argue that individuals should themselves aim not to expose others to risk of harm, and that this consideration becomes stronger the more non-vaccinated people there are, i.e., the further we are below herd immunity. Second, we elaborate on two pragmatic reasons to vaccinate beyond the realization of herd immunity, pertaining to instability of vaccination rates and population heterogeneity, and argue that vaccinating above the threshold should serve as a precautionary measure for buttressing herd immunity. We also show that considerations of harm have normative primacy in establishing this obligation over considerations of fairness. Although perfectly sound, considerations of fairness are, at worst secondary, or at best complementary to considerations of harm.
Collapse
|
47
|
Al-Abri SS, Al-Wahaibi A, Al-Kindi H, Kurup PJ, Al-Maqbali A, Al-Mayahi Z, Al-Tobi MH, Al-Katheri SH, Albusaidi S, Al-Sukaiti MH, Al Balushi AYM, Abdelgadir IO, Al-Shehi N, Morkos E, Al-Maani A, Al-Rawahi B, Alyaquobi F, Alqayoudhi A, Al-Harthy K, Al-Khalili S, Al-Rashdi A, Al-Shukri I, Al Ghafri TS, Al-Hashmi F, Al Jassasi SM, Alshaqsi N, Mitra N, Al Aamry HS, Shah P, Al Marbouai HH, Al Araimi AH, Kair IM, Al Manji AM, Almallak AS, Al Alawi FK, Vaidya V, Muqeetullah M, Alrashdi H, Al Jamoudi SSN, Alshaqsi A, Al Sharji A, Al Shukeiri H, Al-Abri B, Al-Rawahi S, Al-Lamki SH, Al-Manji A, Al-Jardani A. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the general population of Oman: results from four successive nationwide sero-epidemiological surveys. Int J Infect Dis 2021; 112:269-277. [PMID: 34601146 PMCID: PMC8482550 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.09.062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2021] [Revised: 09/24/2021] [Accepted: 09/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Oman and longitudinal changes in antibody levels over time within the first 11 months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS This nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted as a four-cycle serosurvey using a multi-stage stratified sampling method from July to November 2020. A questionnaire was used and included demographics, history of acute respiratory infection and list of symptoms, COVID-19 contact, previous diagnosis or admission, travel history and risk factors. RESULTS In total, 17,457 participants were surveyed. Thirty percent were female and 66.3% were Omani. There was a significant increase in seroprevalence throughout the study cycles, from 5.5% (4.8-6.2%) in Cycle 1 to 22% (19.6-24.6%) in Cycle 4. There was no difference in seroprevalence between genders, but significant differences were found between age groups. There was a transition of seroprevalence from being higher in non-Omanis than Omanis in Cycle 1 [9.1% (7.6-10.9%) vs 3.2% (2.6-3.9%)] to being higher in Omanis than non-Omanis in Cycle 4 [24.3% (21.0-27.9%) vs 16.8% (14.9-18.9%)]. There was remarkable variation in the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 according to governorate. Close contacts of people with COVID-19 had a 96% higher risk of having the disease [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.96, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.64-2.34]. Labourers had 58% higher risk of infection compared with office workers (AOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04-2.35). CONCLUSION This study showed a wide variation in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across governorates in Oman, with higher estimated seroprevalence in migrants in the first two cycles. Prevalence estimates remain low and are insufficient to provide herd immunity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Seif Salem Al-Abri
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman.
| | - Adil Al-Wahaibi
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Hanan Al-Kindi
- Central Public Health Laboratories, Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Padmamohan J Kurup
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Muscat Governorate, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
| | - Ali Al-Maqbali
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, North Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Sohar, Oman
| | - Zayid Al-Mayahi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, South Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Rustaq, Oman
| | - Mohammed Hamed Al-Tobi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Dhakhiliya Governorate, Ministry of Health, Nizwa, Oman
| | - Salim Habbash Al-Katheri
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Dhofar Governorate, Ministry of Health, Salalah, Oman
| | - Sultan Albusaidi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, North Sharqiah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Ibra, Oman
| | - Mahmood Humaid Al-Sukaiti
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Dhahira Governorate, Ministry of Health, Ibri, Oman
| | - Ahmed Yar Mohammed Al Balushi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Buraimi Governorate, Ministry of Health, Buraimi, Oman
| | - Iyad Omer Abdelgadir
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, South Sharqiah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Sur, Oman
| | - Nawal Al-Shehi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Musandam Governorate, Ministry of Health, Khasab, Oman
| | - Essam Morkos
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Wusta Governorate, Ministry of Health, Haima, Oman
| | - Amal Al-Maani
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Bader Al-Rawahi
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Fatma Alyaquobi
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Abdullah Alqayoudhi
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Khalid Al-Harthy
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Sulien Al-Khalili
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Azza Al-Rashdi
- Central Public Health Laboratories, Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Intisar Al-Shukri
- Central Public Health Laboratories, Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Thamra S Al Ghafri
- Directorate General of Health Services, Muscat Governorate, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
| | - Fatma Al-Hashmi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, North Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Sohar, Oman
| | - Saeed Mussalam Al Jassasi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Dhahira Governorate, Ministry of Health, Ibri, Oman
| | - Nasser Alshaqsi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, South Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Rustaq, Oman
| | - Nilanjan Mitra
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Musandam Governorate, Ministry of Health, Khasab, Oman
| | - Humaid Suhail Al Aamry
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Dhakhiliya Governorate, Ministry of Health, Nizwa, Oman
| | - Parag Shah
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, North Sharqiah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Ibra, Oman
| | - Hanan Hassan Al Marbouai
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Buraimi Governorate, Ministry of Health, Buraimi, Oman
| | - Amany Hamed Al Araimi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, South Sharqiah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Sur, Oman
| | - Ismail Mohammed Kair
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Dhofar Governorate, Ministry of Health, Salalah, Oman
| | - Asim Mohammed Al Manji
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Muscat Governorate, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
| | - Ahmed Said Almallak
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Dhofar Governorate, Ministry of Health, Salalah, Oman
| | - Fatma Khamis Al Alawi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, South Sharqiah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Sur, Oman
| | - Vidyanand Vaidya
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, North Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Sohar, Oman
| | - Muhammad Muqeetullah
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Buraimi Governorate, Ministry of Health, Buraimi, Oman
| | - Hanan Alrashdi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, North Sharqiah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Ibra, Oman
| | - Saud Said Nassir Al Jamoudi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Al-Dhakhiliya Governorate, Ministry of Health, Nizwa, Oman
| | - Asila Alshaqsi
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, South Batinah Governorate, Ministry of Health, Rustaq, Oman
| | - Abdullah Al Sharji
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Muscat Governorate, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
| | - Hamida Al Shukeiri
- Department of Disease Surveillance and Control, Directorate General of Health Services, Muscat Governorate, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
| | - Badr Al-Abri
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | | | - Said H Al-Lamki
- Directorate General of Primary Health Care, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
| | - Abdulla Al-Manji
- Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| | - Amina Al-Jardani
- Central Public Health Laboratories, Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health Muscat, Oman
| |
Collapse
|
48
|
Sinha K, Som Chaudhury S, Sharma P, Ruidas B. COVID-19 rhapsody: Rage towards advanced diagnostics and therapeutic strategy. J Pharm Anal 2021; 11:529-540. [PMID: 34178413 PMCID: PMC8214321 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpha.2021.06.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2020] [Revised: 05/29/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The deadly global outbreak of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has forged an unrivaled threat to human civilization. Contemplating its profuse impact, initial risk management and therapies are needed, as well as rapid detection strategies alongside treatments with existing drugs or traditional treatments to provide better clinical support for critical patients. Conventional detection techniques have been considered but do not sufficiently meet the current challenges of effective COVID-19 diagnosis. Therefore, several modern techniques including point-of-care diagnosis with a biosensor, clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-associated proteins that function as nuclease (Cas) technology, next-generation sequencing, serological, digital, and imaging approaches have delivered improved and noteworthy success compared to that using traditional strategies. Conventional drug treatment, plasma therapy, and vaccine development are also ongoing. However, alternative medicines including Ayurveda, herbal drugs, homeopathy, and Unani have also been enlisted as prominent treatment strategies for developing herd immunity and physical defenses against COVID-19. All considered, this review can help develop rapid and simplified diagnostic strategies, as well as advanced evidence-based modern therapeutic approaches that will aid in combating the global pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Koel Sinha
- Centre for Healthcare Science and Technology, Indian Institute of Engineering Science Technology, Shibpur, Howrah, 711103, India
| | - Sutapa Som Chaudhury
- Centre for Healthcare Science and Technology, Indian Institute of Engineering Science Technology, Shibpur, Howrah, 711103, India
| | - Pramita Sharma
- Centre for Healthcare Science and Technology, Indian Institute of Engineering Science Technology, Shibpur, Howrah, 711103, India
- Department of Zoology, Hooghly Mohsin College Affiliated to University of Burdwan, Hooghly, 712101, India
| | - Bhuban Ruidas
- Centre for Healthcare Science and Technology, Indian Institute of Engineering Science Technology, Shibpur, Howrah, 711103, India
| |
Collapse
|
49
|
Chen S, Prettner K, Kuhn M, Bloom DE. The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach. J Econ Ageing 2021; 20:100328. [PMID: 34123719 PMCID: PMC8186726 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2021.100328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the economic burden of COVID-19 that would arise absent behavioral or policy responses under the herd immunity approach in the United States and compare it to the total burden that also accounts for estimates of the value of lives lost. METHODS We use the trajectories of age-specific human and physical capital in the production process to calculate output changes based on a human capital-augmented production function. We also calculate the total burden that results when including the value of lives lost as calculated from mortality rates of COVID-19 and estimates for the value of a statistical life in the United States based on studies assessing individual's willingness to pay to avoid risks. RESULTS Our results indicate that the GDP loss associated with unmitigated COVID-19 would amount to a cumulative US$1.4 trillion by 2030 assuming that 60 percent of the population is infected over three years. This is equivalent to around 7.7 percent of GDP in 2019 (in constant 2010 US$) or an average tax on yearly output of 0.6 percent. After applying the value of a statistical life to account for the value of lives lost, our analyses show that the total burden can mount to between US$17 and 94 trillion over the next decade, which is equivalent to an annual tax burden between 8 and 43 percent. CONCLUSION Our results show that the United States would incur a sizeable burden if it adopted a non-interventionist herd immunity approach. FUNDING Research reported in this paper was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Project INV-006261), and the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Project C-0048), which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Preparation of this article was also supported by the Value of Vaccination Research Network (VoVRN) through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1158136). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Simiao Chen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Klaus Prettner
- Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Department of Economics, Vienna, Austria
- Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria
| | - Michael Kuhn
- Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - David E Bloom
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
50
|
Banerjee A, Gaikwad B, Desale A, Jadhav SL, Rathod H, Srivastava K. Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 seroprevalence study in Pimpri-Chinchwad, Maharashtra, India coinciding with falling trend - Do the results suggest imminent herd immunity? Indian J Public Health 2021; 65:256-260. [PMID: 34558487 DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_122_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Background COVID-19 is a public health concern currently demanding continuous efforts to understand its epidemiology. Pimpri-Chinchwad township with a population of over 25 lakhs is located in Maharashtra, one of the worst affected states in India. After the incidence peaked in the township in mid-September 2020, cases started declining even as lockdown restrictions were eased. Objectives A seroprevalence study was conducted to understand the transmission dynamics of the pandemic in this region. Methods We carried out a population-based seroprevalence study for IgG antibodies for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) among 5000 residents 12 years and above selected by the cluster random sampling. We selected 50 clusters in slums, 80 clusters in tenements, and 70 clusters from housing societies. The field work for collection of samples was carried out from October 07 to October 17, 2020. We used kit from Abbott (SARS-CoV-2 IgG), which employs chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay technology. The prevalence of IgG antibodies was expressed as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). These were weighted for areas and cluster effect and further adjusted for test performance. Results The overall seropositivity for IgG was 34.04% (95% CIl 31.3%-36.8%). Slum dwellers had 40.9% positivity rate (95% CI 37.0%-44.7%), those in tenements 41.2% (95% CI 37.7%-44.8%) and people living in housing societies had 29.8% positivity (95% CI 25.8%-33.8%). Conclusion A considerable proportion of population had encountered the novel coronavirus approaching partial, if not complete, herd immunity, which may partly explain the declining trend in spite of easing of lockdown restrictions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Amitav Banerjee
- Professor and Head, Depatment of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr DY Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| | - Bhargav Gaikwad
- Assistant Professor, Depatment of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr DY Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| | - Atul Desale
- Assistant Professor, Depatment of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr DY Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| | - Sudhir Laxman Jadhav
- Professor, Depatment of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr DY Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| | - Hetal Rathod
- Professor, Depatment of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr DY Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| | - Kajal Srivastava
- Associate Professor, Depatment of Community Medicine, Dr DY Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr DY Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| |
Collapse
|