Adaptive Bayesian sum of trees model for covariate-dependent spectral analysis

This paper introduces a flexible and adaptive nonparametric method for estimating the association between multiple covariates and power spectra of multiple time series. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian sum of trees model to capture complex dependencies and interactions between covariates and the power spectrum, which are often observed in studies of biomedical time series. Local power spectra corresponding to terminal nodes within trees are estimated nonparametrically using Bayesian penalized linear splines. The trees are considered to be random and fit using a Bayesian backfitting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that sequentially considers tree modifications via reversible-jump MCMC techniques. For high-dimensional covariates, a sparsity-inducing Dirichlet hyperprior on tree splitting proportions is considered, which provides sparse estimation of covariate effects and efficient variable selection. By averaging over the posterior distribution of trees, the proposed method can recover both smooth and abrupt changes in the power spectrum across multiple covariates. Empirical performance is evaluated via simulations to demonstrate the proposed method's ability to accurately recover complex relationships and interactions. The proposed methodology is used to study gait maturation in young children by evaluating age-related changes in power spectra of stride interval time series in the presence of other covariates.

Infinite hidden Markov models for multiple multivariate time series with missing data

Exposure to air pollution is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Recent technological advancements permit the collection of time-resolved personal exposure data. Such data are often incomplete with missing observations and exposures below the limit of detection, which limit their use in health effects studies. In this paper, we develop an infinite hidden Markov model for multiple asynchronous multivariate time series with missing data. Our model is designed to include covariates that can inform transitions among hidden states. We implement beam sampling, a combination of slice sampling and dynamic programming, to sample the hidden states, and a Bayesian multiple imputation algorithm to impute missing data. In simulation studies, our model excels in estimating hidden states and state-specific means and imputing observations that are missing at random or below the limit of detection. We validate our imputation approach on data from the Fort Collins Commuter Study. We show that the estimated hidden states improve imputations for data that are missing at random compared to existing approaches. In a case study of the Fort Collins Commuter Study, we describe the inferential gains obtained from our model including improved imputation of missing data and the ability to identify shared patterns in activity and exposure among repeated sampling days for individuals and among distinct individuals.

Multivariate Time Series Information Bottleneck

Time series (TS) and multiple time series (MTS) predictions have historically paved the way for distinct families of deep learning models. The temporal dimension, distinguished by its evolutionary sequential aspect, is usually modeled by decomposition into the trio of "trend, seasonality, noise", by attempts to copy the functioning of human synapses, and more recently, by transformer models with self-attention on the temporal dimension. These models may find applications in finance and e-commerce, where any increase in performance of less than 1% has large monetary repercussions, they also have potential applications in natural language processing (NLP), medicine, and physics. To the best of our knowledge, the information bottleneck (IB) framework has not received significant attention in the context of TS or MTS analyses. One can demonstrate that a compression of the temporal dimension is key in the context of MTS. We propose a new approach with partial convolution, where a time sequence is encoded into a two-dimensional representation resembling images. Accordingly, we use the recent advances made in image extension to predict an unseen part of an image from a given one. We show that our model compares well with traditional TS models, has information-theoretical foundations, and can be easily extended to more dimensions than only time and space. An evaluation of our multiple time series-information bottleneck (MTS-IB) model proves its efficiency in electricity production, road traffic, and astronomical data representing solar activity, as recorded by NASA's interface region imaging spectrograph (IRIS) satellite.

Interpretable Classification of Categorical Time Series Using the Spectral Envelope and Optimal Scalings

This article introduces a novel approach to the classification of categorical time series under the supervised learning paradigm. To construct meaningful features for categorical time series classification, we consider two relevant quantities: the spectral envelope and its corresponding set of optimal scalings. These quantities characterize oscillatory patterns in a categorical time series as the largest possible power at each frequency, or spectral envelope, obtained by assigning numerical values, or scalings, to categories that optimally emphasize oscillations at each frequency. Our procedure combines these two quantities to produce an interpretable and parsimonious feature-based classifier that can be used to accurately determine group membership for categorical time series. Classification consistency of the proposed method is investigated, and simulation studies are used to demonstrate accuracy in classifying categorical time series with various underlying group structures. Finally, we use the proposed method to explore key differences in oscillatory patterns of sleep stage time series for patients with different sleep disorders and accurately classify patients accordingly. The code for implementing the proposed method is available at https://github.com/zedali16/envsca.