Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory simultaneously observed a transient gravitational-wave signal. The signal sweeps upwards in frequency from 35 to 250 Hz with a peak gravitational-wave strain of 1.0×10(-21). It matches the waveform predicted by general relativity for the inspiral and merger of a pair of black holes and the ringdown of the resulting single black hole. The signal was observed with a matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203,000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1σ. The source lies at a luminosity distance of 410(-180)(+160)  Mpc corresponding to a redshift z=0.09(-0.04)(+0.03). In the source frame, the initial black hole masses are 36(-4)(+5)M⊙ and 29(-4)(+4)M⊙, and the final black hole mass is 62(-4)(+4)M⊙, with 3.0(-0.5)(+0.5)M⊙c(2) radiated in gravitational waves. All uncertainties define 90% credible intervals. These observations demonstrate the existence of binary stellar-mass black hole systems. This is the first direct detection of gravitational waves and the first observation of a binary black hole merger.

Low grade inflammation and coronary heart disease: prospective study and updated meta-analyses

OBJECTIVE

To assess associations between baseline values of four different circulating markers of inflammation and future risk of coronary heart disease, potential triggers of systemic inflammation (such as persistent infection), and other markers of inflammation.

DESIGN

Nested case-control comparisons in a prospective, population based cohort.

SETTING

General practices in 18 towns in Britain.

PARTICIPANTS

506 men who died from coronary heart disease or had a non-fatal myocardial infarction and 1025 men who remained free of such disease until 1996 selected from 5661 men aged 40-59 years who provided blood samples in 1978-1980.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Plasma concentrations of C reactive protein, serum amyloid A protein, and serum albumin and leucocyte count. Information on fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease was obtained from medical records and death certificates.

RESULTS

Compared with men in the bottom third of baseline measurements of C reactive protein, men in the top third had an odds ratio for coronary heart disease of 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.38 to 3.28) after age, town, smoking, vascular risk factors, and indicators of socioeconomic status were adjusted for. Similar adjusted odds ratios were 1.65 (1.07 to 2.55) for serum amyloid A protein; 1.12 (0.71 to 1.77) for leucocyte count; and 0.67 (0.43 to 1.04) for albumin. No strong associations were observed of these factors with Helicobacter pylori seropositivity, Chlamydia pneumoniae IgG titres, or plasma total homocysteine concentrations. Baseline values of the acute phase reactants were significantly associated with one another (P<0.0001), although the association between low serum albumin concentration and leucocyte count was weaker (P=0.08).

CONCLUSION

In the context of results from other relevant studies these findings suggest that some inflammatory processes, unrelated to the chronic infections studied here, are likely to be involved in coronary heart disease.

Placebo-controlled trial of safety and efficacy of intraoperative controlled delivery by biodegradable polymers of chemotherapy for recurrent gliomas. The Polymer-brain Tumor Treatment Group

Chemotherapy for brain tumours has been limited because of difficulty in achieving adequate exposure to the tumour without systemic toxicity. We have developed a method for local sustained release of chemotherapeutic agents by their incorporation into biodegradable polymers. Implantation of the drug-impregnated polymer at the tumour site allows prolonged local exposure with minimal systemic exposure. We conducted a randomised, placebo-controlled, prospective study to evaluate the effectiveness of biodegradable polymers impregnated with carmustine to treat recurrent malignant gliomas. In 27 medical centres, 222 patients with recurrent malignant brain tumours requiring re-operation were randomly assigned to receive surgically implanted biodegradable polymer discs with or without 3.85% carmustine. Randomisation balanced the treatment groups for all of the prognostic factors examined. Median survival of the 110 patients who received carmustine polymers was 31 weeks compared with 23 weeks for the 112 patients who received only placebo polymers (hazard ratio = 0.67, p = 0.006, after accounting for the effects of prognostic factors). Among patients with glioblastoma, 6-month survival in those treated with carmustine-polymer discs was 50% greater than in those treated with placebo (mortality = 32 of 72 [44%] vs 47 of 73 [64%], p = 0.02). There were no clinically important adverse reactions related to the carmustine polymer, either in the brain or systemically. Interstitial chemotherapy delivered with polymers directly to brain tumours at the time of surgery seems to be a safe and effective treatment for recurrent malignant gliomas.

GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral

On August 17, 2017 at 12∶41:04 UTC the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors made their first observation of a binary neutron star inspiral. The signal, GW170817, was detected with a combined signal-to-noise ratio of 32.4 and a false-alarm-rate estimate of less than one per 8.0×10^{4}  years. We infer the component masses of the binary to be between 0.86 and 2.26  M_{⊙}, in agreement with masses of known neutron stars. Restricting the component spins to the range inferred in binary neutron stars, we find the component masses to be in the range 1.17-1.60  M_{⊙}, with the total mass of the system 2.74_{-0.01}^{+0.04}M_{⊙}. The source was localized within a sky region of 28  deg^{2} (90% probability) and had a luminosity distance of 40_{-14}^{+8}  Mpc, the closest and most precisely localized gravitational-wave signal yet. The association with the γ-ray burst GRB 170817A, detected by Fermi-GBM 1.7 s after the coalescence, corroborates the hypothesis of a neutron star merger and provides the first direct evidence of a link between these mergers and short γ-ray bursts. Subsequent identification of transient counterparts across the electromagnetic spectrum in the same location further supports the interpretation of this event as a neutron star merger. This unprecedented joint gravitational and electromagnetic observation provides insight into astrophysics, dense matter, gravitation, and cosmology.

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction

BACKGROUND

There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen.

RESULTS

The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Schizophrenia and affective disorders--cosegregation with a translocation at chromosome 1q42 that directly disrupts brain-expressed genes: clinical and P300 findings in a family

A family with a (1;11)(q42;q14.3) translocation significantly linked to a clinical phenotype that includes schizophrenia and affective disorders is described. This translocation generates a LOD score of 3.6 when the disease phenotype is restricted to schizophrenia, of 4.5 when the disease phenotype is restricted to affective disorders, of 7.1 when relatives with recurrent major depression, with bipolar disorder, or with schizophrenia are all classed as affected. This evidence for linkage is among the strongest reported for a psychiatric disorder. Family members showed no distinctive features by which the psychiatric phenotype could be distinguished from unrelated cases of either schizophrenia or affective disorders, and no physical, neurological, or dysmorphic conditions co-occurred with psychiatric symptoms. Translocation carriers and noncarriers had the same mean intelligence quotient. Translocation carriers were similar to subjects with schizophrenia and different from noncarriers and controls, in showing a significant reduction in the amplitude of the P300 event-related potential (ERP). Furthermore, P300 amplitude reduction and latency prolongation were measured in some carriers of the translocation who had no psychiatric symptoms-a pattern found in other families with multiple members with schizophrenia, in which amplitude of and latency of P300 appear to be trait markers of risk. The results of karyotypic, clinical, and ERP investigations of this family suggest that the recently described genes DISC1 and DISC2, which are directly disrupted by the breakpoint on chromosome 1, may have a role in the development of a disease phenotype that includes schizophrenia as well as unipolar and bipolar affective disorders.

Association within a family of a balanced autosomal translocation with major mental illness

282 pedigrees in the MRC Cytogenetics Registry, Edinburgh, with familial autosomal anomalies were examined for the presence of associated mental illness. In one large pedigree there were 23 cases of mental and/or behavioural disorders meeting Research Diagnostic Criteria. 34 of the 77 family members available for cytogenetic analysis carried a balanced translocation t(1:11) (q43,q21). Psychiatric diagnoses had been recorded for 16 of the 34 members with the translocation compared with only 5 of the 43 without it. The lod scores (against chance linkage of the translocation with mental illness) were greatest when the mental disorders in the phenotype were restricted to schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, recurrent major depression, and adolescent conduct and emotional disorders. Although the mental illness in this family may not be typical of that in the general population, the findings suggest that the q21-22 region of chromosome 11 may be a promising area to examine for genes predisposing to major mental illness.

Carotid plaque, intima media thickness, cardiovascular risk factors, and prevalent cardiovascular disease in men and women: the British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

B-mode ultrasound is a noninvasive method of examining the walls of peripheral arteries and provides measures of the intima-media thickness (IMT) at various sites (common carotid artery, bifurcation, internal carotid artery) and of plaques that may indicate early presymptomatic disease. The reported associations between cardiovascular risk factors, clinical disease, IMT, and plaques are inconsistent. We sought to clarify these relationships in a large, representative sample of men and women living in 2 British towns.

METHODS

The study was performed during 1996 in 2 towns (Dewsbury and Maidstone) of the British Regional Heart Study that have an approximately 2-fold difference in coronary heart disease risk. The male participants were drawn from the British Regional Heart Study and were recruited in 1978-1980 and form part of a national cohort study of 7735 men. A random sample of women of similar age to the men (55 to 77 years) was also selected from the age-sex register of the general practices used in the original survey. A wide range of data on social, lifestyle, and physiological factors, cardiovascular disease symptoms, and diagnoses was collected. Measures of right and left common carotid IMT (IMTcca) and bifurcation IMT (IMTbif) were made, and the arteries were examined for plaques 1.5 cm above and below the flow divider.

RESULTS

Totals of 425 men and 375 women were surveyed (mean age, 66 years; range, 56 to 77 years). The mean (SD) IMTcca observed were 0. 84 (0.21) and 0.75 (0.16) mm for men and women, respectively. The mean (SD) IMTbif were 1.69 (0.61) and 1.50 (0.77) mm for men and women, respectively. The correlation between IMTcca and IMTbif was similar in men (r=0.36) and women (r=0.38). There were no differences in mean IMTcca or IMTbif between the 2 towns. Carotid plaques were very common, affecting 57% (n=239) of men and 58% (n=211) of women. Severe carotid plaques with flow disturbance were rare, affecting 9 men (2%) and 6 women (1.6%). Plaques increased in prevalence with age, affecting 49% men and 39% of women aged <60 years and 65% and 75% of men and women, respectively, aged >70 years. Plaques were most common among men in Dewsbury (79% affected) and least common among men in Maidstone (34% affected). IMTcca showed a different pattern of association with cardiovascular risk factors from IMTbif and was associated with age, SBP, and FEV1 but not with social, lifestyle, or other physiological risk factors. IMTbif and carotid plaques were associated with smoking, manual social class, and plasma fibrinogen. IMTbif and carotid plaques were associated with symptoms and diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases. IMTbif associations with cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular disease appeared to be explained by the presence of plaques in regression models and in analyses stratified by plaque status.

CONCLUSIONS

IMTcca, IMTbif, and plaque are correlated with each other but show differing patterns of association with risk factors and prevalent disease. IMTcca is strongly associated with risk factors for stroke and with prevalent stroke, whereas IMTbif and plaque are more directly associated with ischemic heart disease risk factors and prevalent ischemic heart disease. Our analyses suggest that presence of plaque, rather than the thickness of IMTbif, appears to be the major criterion of high risk of disease, but confirmation of these findings in other populations and in prospective studies is required. The association of fibrinogen with plaque appears to be similar to its association with incident cardiovascular disease. Further work elucidating the composition of plaques using ultrasound imaging would be helpful, and more data, analyzed to distinguish plaque from IMTbif and IMTcca, are required to understand the significance of thicker IMT in the absence of plaque.

Alcohol and mortality in British men: explaining the U-shaped curve

In a prospective study of 7735 middle-aged 7 British men, 504 of whom died in a follow-up period of 7.5 years, there was a U-shaped relationship between alcohol intake and total mortality and an inverse relationship with cardiovascular mortality, even after adjustment for age, cigarette smoking, and social class. These mortality patterns were seen in all smoking categories (with ex-smoking non-drinkers having the highest mortality) and were observed in manual but not in non-manual workers. The alcohol-mortality relationships (total and cardiovascular) were present only in men with cardiovascular or cardiovascular-related doctor-diagnosed illnesses at initial examination. The data suggest that the observed alcohol-mortality relationships are produced by pre-existing disease and by the movement of men with such disease into non-drinking or occasional-drinking categories. The concept of a "protective" effect of drinking on mortality, ignoring the dynamic relationship between ill-health and drinking behaviour, is likely to be ill founded.

Acetylcholine in mind: a neurotransmitter correlate of consciousness?

The cholinergic system is one of the most important modulatory neurotransmitter systems in the brain and controls activities that depend on selective attention, which are an essential component of conscious awareness. Psychopharmacological and pathological evidence supports the concept of a 'cholinergic component' of conscious awareness. Drugs that antagonize muscarinic receptors induce hallucinations and reduce the level of consciousness, while the nicotinic receptor is implicated as being involved in the mechanism of action of general (inhalational) anaesthetics. In degenerative diseases of the brain, alterations in consciousness are associated with regional deficits in the cholinergic system. In Alzheimer's disease (AD), there is a loss of explicit (more than implicit) memory and hypoactivity of cholinergic projections to the hippocampus and cortex, while the visual hallucinations experienced by subjects with Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) are associated with reductions in neocortical ACh-related activity. In Parkinson's disease, the additional loss of pedunculopontine cholinergic neurones, which control REM (rapid eye movement) sleep or dreaming, is likely to contribute to REM abnormalities, which also occur in DLB. Widespread basal-forebrain and rostral brainstem cholinergic pathways, which include converging projections to the thalamus, appear to be located strategically for generating and integrating conscious awareness. Alleviation of a range of cognitive and non-cognitive symptoms by drugs that modulate the cholinergic system, which are being developed for the treatment of AD and related disorders, could be caused by changes in consciousness.

Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators.

STUDY SELECTION

All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION

Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Whole genome-based population biology and epidemiological surveillance of Listeria monocytogenes

Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) is a major human foodborne pathogen. Numerous Lm outbreaks have been reported worldwide and associated with a high case fatality rate, reinforcing the need for strongly coordinated surveillance and outbreak control. We developed a universally applicable genome-wide strain genotyping approach and investigated the population diversity of Lm using 1,696 isolates from diverse sources and geographical locations. We define, with unprecedented precision, the population structure of Lm, demonstrate the occurrence of international circulation of strains and reveal the extent of heterogeneity in virulence and stress resistance genomic features among clinical and food isolates. Using historical isolates, we show that the evolutionary rate of Lm from lineage I and lineage II is low (∼2.5 × 10^-7 substitutions per site per year, as inferred from the core genome) and that major sublineages (corresponding to so-called 'epidemic clones') are estimated to be at least 50-150 years old. This work demonstrates the urgent need to monitor Lm strains at the global level and provides the unified approach needed for global harmonization of Lm genome-based typing and population biology.

GW151226: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a 22-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence

We report the observation of a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. The signal, GW151226, was observed by the twin detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) on December 26, 2015 at 03:38:53 UTC. The signal was initially identified within 70 s by an online matched-filter search targeting binary coalescences. Subsequent off-line analyses recovered GW151226 with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a significance greater than 5σ. The signal persisted in the LIGO frequency band for approximately 1 s, increasing in frequency and amplitude over about 55 cycles from 35 to 450 Hz, and reached a peak gravitational strain of 3.4_{-0.9}^{+0.7}×10^{-22}. The inferred source-frame initial black hole masses are 14.2_{-3.7}^{+8.3}M_{⊙} and 7.5_{-2.3}^{+2.3}M_{⊙}, and the final black hole mass is 20.8_{-1.7}^{+6.1}M_{⊙}. We find that at least one of the component black holes has spin greater than 0.2. This source is located at a luminosity distance of 440_{-190}^{+180}  Mpc corresponding to a redshift of 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03}. All uncertainties define a 90% credible interval. This second gravitational-wave observation provides improved constraints on stellar populations and on deviations from general relativity.

British Regional Heart Study: cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged men in 24 towns

The British Regional Heart Study seeks to define risk factors for cardiovascular disease, to examine their interrelationships, and to explain the geographic variations in cardiovascular disease in Britain. A clinical survey of men aged 40-59 in 24 British towns was carried out and preliminary data from the survey analysed. On a town basis cardiovascular mortality was associated with mean systolic blood pressure and the prevalence of heavy cigarette smoking and heavy alcohol consumption. No such association was seen for body mass index or mean serum total cholesterol or high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. Cigarette smoking and alcohol intake and, to a less degree, systolic blood pressure were related to the social class (percentage of manual workers) of a town, and these factors may determine to some extent the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in manual workers. Blood pressure in individual subjects was affected predominantly by age, body mass index, and alcohol intake. Body mass index appeared to affect blood pressure to a greater extent than alcohol intake and did so with a consistent and positive linear trend. Nevertheless, the differences between towns in mean blood pressure readings appeared to be more closely associated with variations in the prevalence of heavy drinking than with variations in body mass index. Alcohol intake and body mass index explained only a part of the striking differences between towns in mean blood pressure readings, and some important "town"factors remained unexplained.

Organocatalyzed enantioselective fluorocyclizations

Enantioenriched fluorinated heterocycles can be prepared through fluorocyclizations of prochiral indoles (see scheme; Ts=tosyl, Bn=benzyl, Boc=tert-butoxycarbonyl). More than twenty examples for this cascade fluorination-cyclization, which is catalyzed by cinchona alkaloids and employs N-fluorobenzenesulfonimide as the electrophilic fluorine source have been explored, and an unprecedented catalytic asymmetric difluorocyclization has also been identified.

GW170104: Observation of a 50-Solar-Mass Binary Black Hole Coalescence at Redshift 0.2

We describe the observation of GW170104, a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of a pair of stellar-mass black holes. The signal was measured on January 4, 2017 at 10∶11:58.6 UTC by the twin advanced detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory during their second observing run, with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a false alarm rate less than 1 in 70 000 years. The inferred component black hole masses are 31.2_{-6.0}^{+8.4}M_{⊙} and 19.4_{-5.9}^{+5.3}M_{⊙} (at the 90% credible level). The black hole spins are best constrained through measurement of the effective inspiral spin parameter, a mass-weighted combination of the spin components perpendicular to the orbital plane, χ_{eff}=-0.12_{-0.30}^{+0.21}. This result implies that spin configurations with both component spins positively aligned with the orbital angular momentum are disfavored. The source luminosity distance is 880_{-390}^{+450}  Mpc corresponding to a redshift of z=0.18_{-0.07}^{+0.08}. We constrain the magnitude of modifications to the gravitational-wave dispersion relation and perform null tests of general relativity. Assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum like massive particles, we bound the graviton mass to m_{g}≤7.7×10^{-23}  eV/c^{2}. In all cases, we find that GW170104 is consistent with general relativity.

Changes in physical activity, mortality, and incidence of coronary heart disease in older men

BACKGROUND

We studied the relations between physical activity and changes in physical activity, all-cause mortality, and incidence of major coronary-heart-disease events in older men.

METHODS

In 1978-80 (Q1), 7735 men aged 40-59 were selected from general practices in 24 British towns, and enrolled in a prospective study of cardiovascular disease, which included physical activity data. In 1992 (Q92), 12-14 years later, 5934 of the men (91% of available survivors, mean age 63 years) gave further information on physical activity and were then followed up for a further 4 years. The main endpoints were all-cause mortality during 4 years of follow-up from Q92, and major fatal and non-fatal coronary-heart-disease events during 3 years of follow-up from Q92.

FINDINGS

Among 4311 men with no history of coronary heart disease, stroke, or "other heart trouble" by Q92 and who did not report "poor health", there were 219 deaths. In the inactive/occasionally active, light, moderate, and moderately vigorous/vigorous activity groups there were 101 (18.5/1000 person-years) 48 (11.4), 23 (7.3), and 47 (9.1) deaths, respectively (adjusted risk ratios 1.00, 0.61 [95% CI 0.48-0.86], 0.50 [0.31-0.79], 0.65 [0.45-0.94]). Men who were sedentary at Q1 and who began at least light activity by Q92 had significantly lower all-cause mortality than those who remained sedentary, even after adjustment for potential confounders (risk ratio=0.55 [0.36-0.84]). Physical activity improved both cardiovascular mortality (0.66 [0.35-1.23]) and non-cardiovascular mortality (0.48 [0.27-0.85]). The relation between physical activity at Q92, changes in physical activity, and mortality were similar for men with pre-existing cardiovascular disease.

INTERPRETATION

Maintaining or taking up light or moderate physical activity reduces mortality and heart attacks in older men with and without diagnosed cardiovascular disease. Our results support public-health recommendations for older sedentary people to increase physical activity, and for active middle-aged people to continue their activity into old age.

Recognition of vertebral fracture in a clinical setting

Osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures have important health consequences for older individuals, including disability and increased mortality. Because these fractures can be prevented with appropriate medications, recognition and treatment of high-risk patients is warranted. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in a large, regional hospital in New England to examine the frequency with which vertebral fractures are identified and treated by clinicians in a population of hospitalized older women who have radiographic evidence of fractures. The study population consisted of 934 women aged 60 years and older who were hospitalized between October 1, 1995 and March 31, 1997, and who had a chest radiograph obtained. Vertebral fractures in the thoracic region were identified by two radiologists. Discharge diagnoses, medical record notes and radiology reports were compared with the results of the radiologists' readings to determine the frequency with which fractures were identified and appropriate, osteoporosis-preventing medications prescribed. Moderate or severe vertebral fractures were identified for 132 (14.1%) study subjects, but only 17 (1.8%) of the 934 participants had a discharge diagnosis of vertebral fracture. Of these 132, only 17% had fracture noted in the medical record or discharge summary; 50% of contemporaneous radiology reports identified a fracture as present; and 23% of the time it was found in the radiologist's summary impression. Only 18% of medical records indicated that fracture patients had been prescribed calcium, vitamin D, estrogen replacement or an antiresorptive agent. Relatively few hospitalized older women with radiographically demonstrated vertebral fractures were thus identified or treated by clinicians, suggesting a need for improved recognition.

Soluble adhesion molecules and prediction of coronary heart disease: a prospective study and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested that circulating concentrations of soluble adhesion molecules are useful predictors of risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Larger studies are needed, however, to test this hypothesis.

METHODS

We measured serum concentrations of four soluble cell adhesion molecules (intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [ICAM-1], vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 [VCAM-1], E-selectin, and P-selectin) in the stored baseline serum samples of 643 men with coronary heart disease and 1278 controls nested in a prospective sutdy of 5661 men who were monitored for 16 years. We also did a meta-analysis of previous relevant studies to place our findings in context.

RESULTS

Concentrations of soluble adhesion molecules were significantly associated with one another, with other markers of inflammation, and with some classic coronary risk factors. For ICAM-1, the odds ratio for CHD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.32-2.14) in a comparison of men in the top third with those in the bottom third of baseline measurements after adjustments for age and town. This decreased to 1.11 (0.75-1.64) after adjustment for some classic coronary risk factors and indicators of socioeconomic status. For the three other cell adhesion molecules, the odds ratios for CHD, first adjusted for age and town only, and then additionally adjusted for other risk factors, were: VCAM-1: 1.26 (0.99-1.61) and 0.96 (0.66-1.40); E-selectin: 1.27 (1.00-1.61) and 1.13 (0.78-1.62); and P-selectin: 1.23 (0.96-1.56) and 1.20 (0.81-1.76).

INTERPRETATION

The measurement of these adhesion molecules is unlikely to add much predictive information to that provided by more established risk factors.

Vascular smooth muscle cell durotaxis depends on substrate stiffness gradient strength

Mechanical compliance is emerging as an important environmental cue that can influence certain cell behaviors, such as morphology and motility. Recent in vitro studies have shown that cells preferentially migrate from less stiff to more stiff substrates; however, much of this phenomenon, termed durotaxis, remains ill-defined. To address this problem, we studied the morphology and motility of vascular smooth muscle cells on well-defined stiffness gradients. Baselines for cell spreading, polarization, and random motility on uniform gels with moduli ranging from 5 to 80 kPa were found to increase with increasing stiffness. Subsequent analysis of the behavior of vascular smooth muscle cells on gradient substrata (0-4 kPa/100 mum, with absolute moduli of 1-80 kPa) demonstrated that the morphology on gradient gels correlated with the absolute modulus. In contrast, durotaxis (evaluated quantitatively as the tactic index for a biased persistent random walk) and cell orientation with respect to the gradient both increased with increasing magnitude of gradient, but were independent of the absolute modulus. These observations provide a foundation for establishing quantitative relationships between gradients in substrate stiffness and cell response. Moreover, these results reveal common features of phenomenological cell response to chemotactic and durotactic gradients, motivating further mechanistic studies of how cells integrate and respond to multiple complex signals.

A genomewide scan for loci predisposing to type 2 diabetes in a U.K. population (the Diabetes UK Warren 2 Repository): analysis of 573 pedigrees provides independent replication of a susceptibility locus on chromosome 1q

Improved molecular understanding of the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes is essential if current therapeutic and preventative options are to be extended. To identify diabetes-susceptibility genes, we have completed a primary (418-marker, 9-cM) autosomal-genome scan of 743 sib pairs (573 pedigrees) with type 2 diabetes who are from the Diabetes UK Warren 2 repository. Nonparametric linkage analysis of the entire data set identified seven regions showing evidence for linkage, with allele-sharing LOD scores > or =1.18 (P< or =.01). The strongest evidence was seen on chromosomes 8p21-22 (near D8S258 [LOD score 2.55]) and 10q23.3 (near D10S1765 [LOD score 1.99]), both coinciding with regions identified in previous scans in European subjects. This was also true of two lesser regions identified, on chromosomes 5q13 (D5S647 [LOD score 1.22] and 5q32 (D5S436 [LOD score 1.22]). Loci on 7p15.3 (LOD score 1.31) and 8q24.2 (LOD score 1.41) are novel. The final region showing evidence for linkage, on chromosome 1q24-25 (near D1S218 [LOD score 1.50]), colocalizes with evidence for linkage to diabetes found in Utah, French, and Pima families and in the GK rat. After dense-map genotyping (mean marker spacing 4.4 cM), evidence for linkage to this region increased to a LOD score of 1.98. Conditional analyses revealed nominally significant interactions between this locus and the regions on chromosomes 10q23.3 (P=.01) and 5q32 (P=.02). These data, derived from one of the largest genome scans undertaken in this condition, confirm that individual susceptibility-gene effects for type 2 diabetes are likely to be modest in size. Taken with genome scans in other populations, they provide both replication of previous evidence indicating the presence of a diabetes-susceptibility locus on chromosome 1q24-25 and support for the existence of additional loci on chromosomes 5, 8, and 10. These data should accelerate positional cloning efforts in these regions of interest.

Correlation of the leptin:adiponectin ratio with measures of insulin resistance in non-diabetic individuals

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Obesity is the dominant cause of insulin resistance. In adult humans it is characterised by a combination of adipocyte hypertrophy and, to a lesser extent, adipocyte hyperplasia. As hypertrophic adipocytes secrete more leptin and less adiponectin, the plasma leptin:adiponectin ratio (LAR) has been proposed as a potentially useful measure of insulin resistance and vascular risk. We sought to assess the usefulness of the LAR as a measure of insulin resistance in non-diabetic white adults.

METHODS

Leptin and adiponectin levels were measured in 2,097 non-diabetic individuals from the Ely and European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR) Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Risk (RISC) study cohorts. LAR was compared with fasting insulin and HOMA-derived insulin sensitivity (HOMA-S) in all individuals and with the insulin sensitivity index (M/I) from hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp studies in 1,226 EGIR RISC participants.

RESULTS

The LAR was highly correlated with HOMA-S in men (r = -0.58, p = 4.5 x 10(-33) and r = -0.65, p = 1.1 x 10(-66) within the Ely and EGIR RISC study cohorts, respectively) and in women (r = -0.51, p = 2.8 x 10(-36) and r = -0.61, p = 2.5 x 10(-73)). The LAR was also strongly correlated with the clamp M/I value (r = -0.52, p = 4.5 x 10(-38) and r = -0.47, p = 6.6 x 10(-40) in men and women, respectively), similar to correlations between HOMA-S and the M/I value.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The leptin:adiponectin ratio is a useful measure of insulin resistance in non-diabetic white adults. These data highlight the central role of adipocyte dysfunction in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance. Given that variations between fasting and postprandial leptin and adiponectin levels tend to be small, the leptin to adiponectin ratio might also have potential value in assessing insulin sensitivity in the non-fasted state.

The origin and evolution of animal appendages

Animals have evolved diverse appendages adapted for locomotion, feeding and other functions. The genetics underlying appendage formation are best understood in insects and vertebrates. The expression of the Distal-less (Dll) homeoprotein during arthropod limb outgrowth and of Dll orthologs (Dlx) in fish fin and tetrapod limb buds led us to examine whether expression of this regulatory gene may be a general feature of appendage formation in protostomes and deuterostomes. We find that Dll is expressed along the proximodistal axis of developing polychaete annelid parapodia, onychophoran lobopodia, ascidian ampullae, and even echinoderm tube feet. Dll/Dlx expression in such diverse appendages in these six coelomate phyla could be convergent, but this would have required the independent co-option of Dll/Dlx several times in evolution. It appears more likely that ectodermal Dll/Dlx expression along proximodistal axes originated once in a common ancestor and has been used subsequently to pattern body wall outgrowths in a variety of organisms. We suggest that this pre-Cambrian ancestor of most protostomes and the deuterostomes possessed elements of the genetic machinery for and may have even borne appendages.

Chemotherapy for malignant gliomas

There continues to be an extensive effort to develop chemotherapeutic approaches to the treatment of malignant gliomas of the brain. In the past 5 years there have been literally hundreds of trials of new agents, combinations of old and new agents, and even new routes and approaches to the delivery of chemotherapy. In this review, the literature has been studied and the individual reports analyzed to evaluate the impact of the new findings on clinical management of the patient with malignant glioma of the brain. The major areas of progress include the addition of new drugs with varying modes of action, the use of combinations of drugs in a synergistic fashion, and the development of new routes of drug delivery. None of the advances has brought about the revolution in clinical care that is so eagerly sought, but clearly the amount of new knowledge gained by these studies helps in understanding how to use chemotherapy more effectively. Furthermore, the remarkable degree of interest and involvement in the use of chemotherapy promises that an even greater number of patients with malignant gliomas will be considered for vigorous and enthusiastic clinical management programs even if chemotherapy itself is not the key modality in the treatment of a specific patient.