Clinical Course of acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome and effects on prognosis

Indian National Association for the Study of Liver (INASL) Guidance Statements for Determining Futility in Liver Transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease; however, with the growing shortage of organ donors, the need to identify futile transplants has become increasingly urgent. Futility in liver transplantation refers to situations where the expected post-transplant survival or quality of life is poor, making the procedure unlikely to yield a meaningful benefit. Various definitions of futility are used across different countries and transplant centers, with criteria often based on clinical factors such as age, comorbidities, MELD score, and functional status. For hepatologists and transplant surgeons, clearer guidelines are essential to make informed decisions and avoid unnecessary transplants that may place patients at risk without improving their prognosis. While some studies have proposed futility scores, there is currently no universal consensus on a standardized definition or set of criteria. This highlights the need for further prospective trials to evaluate the predictors of futility in liver transplantation, aiming to refine decision-making processes, optimize organ allocation, and improve patient outcomes. Future research should focus on the development of universally accepted futility criteria and explore interventions to mitigate the factors contributing to transplant futility.

A novel prognostic model based on portal vein diameter for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

The prompt and accurate prognostication of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients is crucial for clinical intervention and reducing mortality. This study aimed to develop a novel prognostic model based on pathological changes, with a specific focus on portal vein which is correlated with hepatic pathology. A cohort of 127 ACLF patients was enrolled to develop the prognostic model for 90-day mortality, which was validated in a prospective cohort of 105 ACLF patients. Demographic characteristics, laboratory indicators, and imaging factor portal vein diameter (PVD) were screened, and a nomogram prognostic model was developed using logistic regression. Patients with PVD ≥ 13.4 mm had significantly higher mortality (P = 0.047). PVD, age, neutrophil percentage, sex and total bilirubin were identified as independent predictors for the new PVD-based nomogram prognostic model, PANST. The C-index (0.878) of PANST score was higher than Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium-ACLF (CLIF-C ACLF), end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores (0.691, 0.687, 0.639, respectively; P < 0.001). The ROC and decision curves demonstrated that the PANST score was superior to CLIF-C ACLF, MELD and CTP scores. Furthermore, after subgroup analysis, the C-indices of PANST score for hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) and non-HBV-ACLF patients (0.842,0.950) were significantly higher than those of CLIF-C ACLF score (0.772, 0.750; P < 0.05), MELD score (0.730, 0.608; all P < 0.05) and CTP score (0.701,0.513; all P < 0.05). These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. PVD was an independent predictor, and the PANST score, a novel prognostic model based on PVD can accurately predict 90-day mortality in ACLF patients.

The Association of Age and Liver Transplant Outcomes in Patients With Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

INTRODUCTION

To explore the role of age at listing on outcomes for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) awaiting liver transplantation (LT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed adult candidates listed for LT in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database from January 1, 2007 to June 30, 2018. Patients were divided into four groups based on age at listing: I (≤34), II (35-49), III (50-64), and IV (≥65). The ACLF grade was estimated (est-ACLF), and intent-to-treat survival, overall survival (OS), as well as potential predictors for OS was evaluated.

RESULTS

Est-ACLF-3 was associated with a higher 30-d cumulative dropout rate and inferior intent-to-treat survival across age groups. No difference was observed in OS among ACLF grades in group I, but significantly inferior OS was observed in higher ACLF grades in groups II-IV. Multivariate analysis showed age (P < 0.001, ref. group I; hazard ratio 0.995 for group II, P = 0.936; 1.196 for group III, P = 0.002; 1.651 for group IV, P < 0.001) and est-ACLF grade (P < 0.001, ref. est-ACLF-0; 1.214 for est-ACLF-1, P < 0.001; 1.246 for est-ACLF-2, P < 0.001; 1.578 for est-ACLF-3, P < 0.001) were independent predictors for OS. Generalized additive model showed different association between age and OS among different ACLF grades.

CONCLUSIONS

Young patients with high ACLF grades could achieve similar OS compared with those with low grades. Elderly patients with higher ACLF grades were associated with inferior outcomes after LT.

The Liver Intensive Care Unit

Major advances in managing critically ill patients with liver disease have improved their prognosis and access to intensive care facilities. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is now a well-defined disease and these patients can be fast-tracked for liver transplantation (LT) with good outcomes if there are no contraindications. In acute liver failure, plasma exchange has improved prognosis for patients not eligible for immediate transplant. Further advances in novel therapies and refinement of the criteria for early LT in ACLF and also clinical implementation of artificial intelligence tools will probably constitute the next major breakthroughs in critically ill patients with liver disease.

Liver transplantation improves prognosis across all grades of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is recognized as an effective approach that offers survival benefits for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, controversies remain regarding the LT selection criteria, and meta-analyses reporting overall survival outcomes across different ACLF severity grades are lacking.

AIM

To depict a comprehensive postoperative picture of patients with ACLF of varying severity and contribute to updating LT selection.

METHODS

Systematic searches in Web of Science, EMBASE, PubMed, and Cochrane databases were performed, from inception to December 26, 2023, for studies exploring post-transplant outcomes among ACLF patients, stratified by severity grades as identified by the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure criteria. The primary outcome of interest was the survival rate within one year, with post-transplant complications as secondary outcomes. Additionally, the subgroup analysis examined region-specific one-year survival rates.

RESULTS

A total of 17 studies involving 28025 participants were included. Patients with ACLF-1 and ACLF-2 have favorable survival within one year, with survival rates reaching 87% [95% confidence interval (CI): 84%-91%] and 86% (95%CI: 81%-91%), respectively. Despite the relatively lower survival (73%, 95%CI: 66%-80%) and higher incidence of infection (48%, 95%CI: 29%-67%) observed in ACLF-3 patients, their survival exceeds that of those who do not undergo LT. Moreover, post-transplant survival was highest in North America across all ACLF grades.

CONCLUSION

LT can provide survival advantages for ACLF patients. To optimize the utilization of scarce donor organs and improve prognosis, comprehensive preoperative health evaluations are essential, especially for ACLF-3 patients.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Steps Towards Consensus

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by organ failure and high short-term mortality. Since its first definition in 2013, many international organizations have defined this syndrome and, till now, there has been no agreement regarding definitions and diagnostic criteria. Although the precise mechanism of ACLF is unknown, precipitant factors and the systemic inflammation response play a major role. Specific management of this high-mortality syndrome is still under development, but a general consensus in the diagnosis and management of ACLF is needed.

A short-term predictive model for disease progression in acute-on-chronic liver failure: integrating spectral CT extracellular liver volume and clinical characteristics

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening hepatic syndrome. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a comprehensive model combining extracellular liver volume derived from spectral CT (ECVIC-liver) and sarcopenia, for the early prediction of short-term (90-day) disease progression in ACLF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 126 ACLF patients who underwent hepatic spectral CT scans was included. According to the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) criteria, patients were divided into the progression group (n = 70) and the stable group (n = 56). ECVIC-liver was measured on the equilibrium period (EP) images of spectral CT, and L3-SMI was measured on unenhanced CT images, with sarcopenia assessed. A comprehensive model was developed by combining independent predictors. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, BMI, WBC, PLT, PTA, L3-SMI, IC-EP, Z-EP, K140-EP, NIC-EP, ECVIC-liver, and Sarcopenia demonstrated associations with disease progression status at 90 days in ACLF patients. In multivariate logistic regression, white blood cell count (WBC) (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.02-1.40; P = 0.026), ECVIC-liver (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.15-1.40; P < 0.001), sarcopenia (OR = 4.15, 95% CI: 1.43-12.01; P = 0.009), MELD-Na score (OR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.01-1.13;P = 0.042), and CLIF-SOFA score (OR = 1.37, 95%CI:1.15-1.64; P<0.001) emerged as independent risk factors for ACLF progression. The combined model exhibited superior predictive performance (AUCs = 0.910, sensitivity = 80.4%, specificity = 90.0%, PPV = 0.865, NPV = 0.851) compared to CLIF-SOFA, MELD-Na, MELD and CTP scores(both P < 0.001). Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the high clinical utility of the combined model.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients without sarcopenia and/or with a lower ECVIC-liver have a better prognosis, and the integration of WBC, ECVIC-liver, Sarcopenia, CLIF-SOFA and MELD-Na scores in a composite model offers a concise and effective tool for predicting disease progression in ACLF patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not Applicable.

Clinical outcomes and predictors in patients with acute on chronic liver failure in Southern Taiwan

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The study is to analyze the clinical characteristics and identify prognostic factors as well as evaluate predictive models in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) from Southern Taiwan.

METHODS

The cohort study was conducted using the Chang Gung Research Database. We included patients with ACLF based on the definition provided by the Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC).

RESULTS

A total of 231 patients diagnosed with ACLF were included in this study, out of which 26 patients underwent liver transplantation (LT). The primary cause of ACLF was acute exacerbation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 68.4% of cases and followed by severe alcoholic hepatitis (20.8%). Among LT-free patients, the 28-day mortality rate was observed to be 31%. Older age, higher INR and ammonia levels, and the presence of severe hepatic encephalopathy on 3-6 days of treatment were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated on 3-6 days, demonstrated the highest predictive performance for 28-day mortality. The optimal cut-off values for the CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores were determined to be 47 and 6.3, respectively. Patients with CLIF-C ACLF score >63 or COSSH-ACLF score >8.1 experienced 100% mortality by day 28.

CONCLUSION

The CLIF-C ACLF and COSSH-ACLF scores, evaluated within one week after treatment, exhibit strong predictive capabilities for short-term mortality in ACLF patients. These models are valuable tools for guiding timely decision-making, including the consideration of liver transplantation or withdrawal from treatment.

Role of Intestinal Barrier Disruption to Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe condition in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis, marked by high short-term mortality. Recent experimental and clinical evidence has linked intestinal dysfunction to both the initiation of ACLF as well as disease outcome. This review discusses the significant role of the gut-liver axis in ACLF pathogenesis, highlighting recent advances. Gut mucosal barrier disruption, gut dysbiosis, and bacterial translocation emerge as key factors contributing to systemic inflammation in ACLF. Different approaches of therapeutically targeting the gut-liver axis via farnesoid X receptor agonists, nonselective beta receptor blockers, antibiotics, and probiotics are discussed as potential strategies mitigating ACLF progression. The importance of understanding the distinct pathophysiology of ACLF compared with other stages of liver cirrhosis is highlighted. In conclusion, research findings suggest that disruption of intestinal integrity may be an integral component of ACLF pathogenesis, paving the way for novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to manage this syndrome more effectively.

Potential therapies for acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome that develops in approximately 30% of patients hospitalised with cirrhosis and is characterised by an acute decompensation of liver function associated with extra-hepatic organ failures and a high short-term mortality. At present, no specific therapies are available for ACLF, and current management is limited to treatment of the precipitating event and organ support. Given the high prevalence and high mortality of this severe liver disease, there is an urgent need for targeted treatments. There is increasing evidence of the important role played by systemic inflammation and immune dysfunction in the pathophysiology of ACLF and a better understanding of these immune processes is resulting in new therapeutic targets. The aim of this review is to present an overview of ongoing studies of potentially promising therapies and how they could be utilised in the management of ACLF.

Reduced short-term survival following liver transplant in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Reevaluating OPTN data

BACKGROUND

Prior studies show severe acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) at liver transplantation (LT) negatively impacts short-term, but not long-term, post-LT outcomes. However, not accounting for ACLF's time-varying effect on the waitlist may underappreciate its dynamic nature. Moreover, excluding those who died or dropped off the waitlist raises concerns about selection bias.

METHODS

This US nationwide retrospective cohort study estimated the effect of severe ACLF (grade 3) (ACLF-3) on post-LT outcomes, including adult, first-time deceased donor LT candidates listed from June 2013 to May 2023. A marginal structural model (MSM) to address selection bias and time-varying exposure (ACLF-3) was applied, with extended Cox proportional hazard models using a Heaviside step function to assess the hazard of death after LT.

RESULTS

Among 31,267 eligible candidates for LT (baseline cohort), 11.3% (n = 3518) had ACLF-3 at listing; 13.6% (n = 4243) died or dropped out while on the LT waitlist. Of the 27,024 patients who received LT (transplanted cohort), 12.3% (n = 3333) had ACLF-3 at LT. ACLF-3 at LT (but not at waitlisting) was associated with a higher hazard of death, with the hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI: 1.09-2.97) within 1 year after LT but not thereafter. This marginal structural model effect size was 9% higher than conventional multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Sensitivity analyses corroborated these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to previous studies, ACLF-3 at LT in our marginal structural model was associated with a discernible increase in short-term mortality after transplant, presumably due to our addressing of selection bias, while long-term survival was similar to those without severe ACLF at LT. However, potential vulnerability to posttransplant complications warrants further investigation.

Organ dysfunction and failure in liver disease

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a complex syndrome defined by the existence of different organ failures (OFs) in patients with chronic liver disease, mainly cirrhosis. Several definitions have been proposed to define the syndrome, varying in the grade of the subjacent liver disease, the type of precipitants and the organs considered in the definition. Liver, coagulation, brain, kidney, circulatory and pulmonary are the six types of OFs proposed in the different classifications, with different prevalence worldwide. Irrespective of the definition used, patients who develop ACLF present a hyperactive immune system, profound haemodynamic disturbances and several metabolic alterations that finally lead to organ dysfunction. These disturbances are triggered by different factors such as bacterial infections, alcoholic hepatitis, gastrointestinal bleeding or hepatitis B virus flare, among others. Because patients with ACLF present high short-term mortality, a prompt recognition is needed to start treatment of the trigger event and specific organ support. Liver transplantation is also feasible in carefully selected patients and should be evaluated.

Mechanisms and treatment approaches for ACLF

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening syndrome characterized by decompensation of cirrhosis, severe systemic inflammation and organ failures. ACLF is frequently triggered by intra- and/or extrahepatic insults, such as bacterial infections, alcohol-related hepatitis or flares of hepatic viruses. The imbalance between systemic inflammation and immune tolerance causes organ failures through the following mechanisms: (i) direct damage of immune cells/mediators; (ii) worsening of circulatory dysfunction resulting in organ hypoperfusion and (iii) metabolic alterations with prioritization of energetic substrates for inflammation and peripheral organ 'energetic crisis'. Currently, the management of ACLF includes the support of organ failures, the identification and treatment of precipitating factors and expedited assessment for liver transplantation (LT). Early LT should be considered in patients with ACLF grade 3, who are unlikely to recover with the available treatments and have a mortality rate > 70% at 28 days. However, the selection of transplant candidates and their prioritization on the LT waiting list need standardization. Future challenges in the ACLF field include a better understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms leading to inflammation and organ failures, the development of specific treatments for the disease and personalized treatment approaches. Herein, we reviewed the current knowledge and future perspectives on mechanisms and treatment of ACLF.

Prognosis algorithms for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and ACLF

Accurate prediction of survival in patients with cirrhosis is crucial, as patients who are unlikely to survive in the short-term need to be oriented to liver transplantation and to novel therapeutic approaches. Patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis without or with organ dysfunction/failure, the so-called acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), have a particularly high short-term mortality. Recognizing the specificity of this clinical situation, dedicated classifications and scores have been developed over the last 15 years, including variables (e.g. organ failures and systemic inflammation) not part of the formerly available cirrhosis severity scores, namely Child-Pugh score or MELD. For patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis, it led to the development of a dedicated score, the Clif-C-AD score, independently validated. For more severe patients, three different scoring systems have been proposed, by European, Asian and North American societies namely Clif-C-ACLF, AARC score and NASCELD-ACLF respectively. These scores have been validated, and are widely used across the world. The differences and similarities between these scores, as well as their validation and limitations are discussed here. Even if these scores and classifications have been a step forward in favouring homogeneity between studies, and in helping making decisions for individual patients, their predictive value for mortality can still be improved as their area under the ROC curve does not exceed .8. Novel scores including biomarkers reflecting the pathophysiology of acute decompensation of cirrhosis might help reach that goal.

Definition, diagnosis and epidemiology of acute-on-chronic liver failure

This narrative review addresses the definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure, a condition associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease and/or cirrhosis. We provide two major points of view: the East and the West perspective. Both definitions vary regarding the underlying patient population and organ failure(s) definition. Nevertheless, all the definitions have their clinical utility: from the core concept of having the "liver" as a conditio sine qua non, the syndrome cannot exist (Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver); a data-driven, robust definition (European Association for the Study of the Liver); a bedside tool that can quickly identify patients at high risk of dying (North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease [NACSELD]). In each section, we provide the overall definitions, the criteria of organ failure(s), and some epidemiological data illustrating how these apply in each area of the world.

Management of the acute on chronic liver failure in the intensive care unit

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) reflects the development of organ failure(s) in a patient with cirrhosis and is associated with high short-term mortality. Given that ACLF has many different 'phenotypes', medical management needs to take into account the relationship between precipitating insult, organ systems involved and underlying physiology of chronic liver disease/cirrhosis. The goals of intensive care management of patients suffering ACLF are to rapidly recognize and treat inciting events (e.g. infection, severe alcoholic hepatitis and bleeding) and to aggressively support failing organ systems to ensure that patients may successfully undergo liver transplantation or recovery. Management of these patients is complex since they are prone to develop new organ failures and infectious or bleeding complications. ICU therapy parallels that applied in the general ICU population in some complications but differs in others. Given that liver transplantation in ACLF is an emerging and evolving field, multidisciplinary teams with expertise in critical care and transplant medicine best accomplish management of the critically ill ACLF patient. The focus of this review is to identify the common complications of ACLF and to describe the proper management in critically ill patients awaiting liver transplantation in our centres, including organ support, prognostic assessment and how to assess when recovery is unlikely.

Omics in acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a critical syndrome that develops in patients with chronic liver disease and is characterized by acute decompensation, single- or multiple-organ failure and high short-term mortality. Over the past few decades, ACLF has been progressively recognized as an independent clinical entity, and several criteria and prognostic scores have been proposed and validated by different scientific societies. However, controversies still exist in some aspects across regions, which mainly involve whether the definition of underlying liver diseases should include cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis. The pathophysiology of ACLF is complicated and remains unclear, although accumulating evidence based on different aetiologies of ACLF shows that it is closely associated with intense systemic inflammation and immune-metabolism disorder, which result in mitochondrial dysfunction and microenvironment imbalance, leading to disease development and organ failure. In-depth insight into the biological pathways involved in the mechanisms of ACLF and potential mechanistic targets that improve patient survival still needs to be investigated. Omics-based analytical techniques, including genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics and microbiomes, have developed rapidly and can offer novel insights into the essential pathophysiologic process of ACLF. In this paper, we briefly reviewed and summarized the current knowledge and recent advances in the definitions, criteria and prognostic assessments of ACLF; we also described the omics techniques and how omics-based analyses have been applied to investigate and characterize the biological mechanisms of ACLF and identify potential predictive biomarkers and therapeutic targets for ACLF. We also outline the challenges, future directions and limitations presented by omics-based analyses in clinical ACLF research.

Mechanisms of immunity in acutely decompensated cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure

The identification of systemic inflammation (SI) as a central player in the orchestration of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has opened new avenues for the understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying this disease condition. ACLF, which develops in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis, is characterized by single or multiple organ failure and high risk of short-term (28-day) mortality. Its poor outcome is closely associated with the severity of the systemic inflammatory response. In this review, we describe the key features of SI in patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis and ACLF, including the presence of a high blood white cell count and increased levels of inflammatory mediators in systemic circulation. We also discuss the main triggers (i.e. pathogen- and damage-associated molecular patterns), the cell effectors (i.e. neutrophils, monocytes and lymphocytes), the humoral mediators (acute phase proteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors and bioactive lipid mediators) and the factors that influence the systemic inflammatory response that drive organ failure and mortality in ACLF. The role of immunological exhaustion and/or immunoparalysis in the context of exacerbated inflammatory responses that predispose ACLF patients to secondary infections and re-escalation of end-organ dysfunction and mortality are also reviewed. Finally, several new potential immunogenic therapeutic targets are debated.

Prognostic factors for mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

OBJECTIVE

The aim is to explore significant prognostic factors for 90-day mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and assist clinicians in the early identification of critically ill ACLF patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 288 ACLF patients, who were classified into survivors (n = 187) and nonsurvivors (n = 101) based on 90-day outcomes. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analyses were employed to identify significant prognostic factors and construct a novel prognostic model, the AHUCTPI. The model's performance was assessed and the internal validation was performed. Additionally, the influence of dynamic changes in laboratory markers on 90-day mortality was examined.

RESULTS

Independent risk factors for 90-day mortality included age ≥45 years, presence of hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB) during hospitalization, imaging-confirmed cirrhosis at admission, elevated baseline total bilirubin (TBIL), reduced baseline platelet-to-neutrophil ratio (PNR), and elevated baseline international normalized ratio (INR) (P < 0.05 for all). The AHUCTPI model's formula is as follows: Logit (p) = -10.019 + 1.808 × age (1 if ≥45 years, 0 if <45 years) + 1.048 × HE (1 if present, 0 if absent) + 1.721 × UGB (1 if present, 0 if absent) + 1.362 × cirrhosis (1 if present, 0 if absent) + 0.008 × TBIL (μmol/L) - 0.039 × PNR + 1.963 × INR. The AUHCTPI model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared with the MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.914 and 0.739, respectively, and calibration curves closely approximating the ideal curve.

CONCLUSION

ACLF is a complex, dynamic syndrome. Age, HE, and UGB during hospitalization, imaging-diagnosed cirrhosis at admission, baseline TBIL, PNR, and INR were significant predictors for 90-day mortality in ACLF patients, and the AHUCTPI model provides excellent calibration and discrimination. Dynamic monitoring of laboratory trends enhances prognostic accuracy and supports timely clinical decision-making.

Gene score to quantify systemic inflammation in patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Quantifying systemic inflammation (SI) in acutely decompensated cirrhosis (ADC) is of major importance because SI is a driver of the most severe forms of ADC, including acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Blood biomarkers of SI already evaluated in ADC failed to appropriately assess SI in ADC. We aimed to investigate whether gene expression related to circulating immune cells could quantify SI in ADC.

METHODS

Standard biomarkers (white cell count, C reactive protein, cytokines) and genome-wide RNA expression (RNA-sequencing) were obtained in blood from 700 patients with ADC at the time of their hospital admission. A composite score based on standard biomarkers of SI (Chronic Liver Failure-Standard Biomarkers Composite (CLIF-SBC) score) and a gene score (CLIF-Systemic Inflammation Gene (SIG) score) composed of the 28 top differentially expressed immune cell-related genes in the comparison between high-severity and low-severity clinical phenotypes were computed. Among the 700 patients, the CLIF-SIG score was repeated once during follow-up in 375 patients, and 3 times or more in 46 patients.

RESULTS

The CLIF-SIG score was more accurate in reflecting clinical severity induced by SI than the CLIF-SBC score (area under the curve 0.803 vs 0.658). A CLIF-SIG score of 0.386 (Youden Index) was the best cut-off level discriminating patients with poor outcomes from the others, in all clinical scenarios. Sequential measurement of the CLIF-SIG score showed that 78% of patients were admitted at the peak or descending part of the SI-wave. ACLF developed during hospitalisation in 80% of patients with a CLIF-SIG score >0.386 on admission.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ADC, the CLIF-SIG score is an accurate estimator of SI, clinical course severity and prognosis.

Individual mHLA-DR trajectories in the ICU as predictors of early infections following liver transplantation: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Infections are a leading cause of early mortality after liver transplantation (LT). Prior to transplantation, cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction significantly increases the risk of infection. This study investigated the potential of immune monitoring, with a focus on monocytic HLA-DR (mHLA-DR) expression, as a predictor of post-LT complications.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study on 130 patients awaiting LT at Lyon University Hospital to assess mHLA-DR expression, lymphocyte subsets, and T-cell function before and after LT. Multivariate analysis and K-means longitudinal clustering were performed to explore the relationships between immune trajectories and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Among the 99 patients who underwent LT, 35.4% experienced infections early post-LT. No difference in outcome was found regarding lymphocyte count or function. Delayed mHLA-DR recovery (Day 7 < 11,000 AB/C) and pre-LT MELD scores > 30 emerged as independent infection risk factors, with ORs of 12.1 [4.4-38.2], p < 0.0001 and 4.9 [1.4-18.4], p = 0.01, respectively. Patients with delayed mHLA-DR restoration also had reduced one-year survival (77.8% versus 98.3%, p = 0.003). K-means clustering revealed three distinct mHLA-DR recovery profiles, with the slowest recovery group showing the poorest outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight mHLA-DR as an early predictor of post-LT infections. Monitoring post-LT immune function through mHLA-DR expression could guide individualized management strategies to improve outcomes. Trial registration The study was registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov registry: NCT03995537, date: June 20, 2019.

A new prognostic model based on serum apolipoprotein AI in patients with HBV-ACLF and acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIM

To investigate the prognostic value of circulating apolipoprotein AI (apoAI) levels and develop a new prognostic model in individuals with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and acute decompensation (AD) of liver cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

METHODS

Baseline levels of serum lipids were measured, and data concerning the presence of complications were collected from 561 HBV-ACLF and AD patients. Survival analysis was conducted by log-rank test. Proportional hazards model was used to perform multivariate analysis. The dynamics of serum apoAI levels were also explored in 37 HBV-ACLF patients.

RESULTS

In the cohort, the negatively correlation was found between the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and serum apoAI levels (r = -0.7946, P < 0.001). Circulating apoAI concentration was an independent risk factor for 90-day survival according to Cox multivariate analysis. A new prognostic score-integrated serum lipid profile for ACLF patients (Lip-ACLF score = 0.86×International Normalized Ratio (INR) + 0.0034×total bilirubin (TBIL) (µmol/L) + 0.99× hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) (HRS: no/1; with/2) + 0.50×hepatic encephalopathy (HE) (grade/ponint: no/1; 1-2/2; 3-4/3) - 2.97×apoAI (g/L) + 5.2) was subsequently designed for the derivation cohort. Compared to MELD score, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score or apoAI, Lip-ACLFs was superior for the prediction of 90-day outcomes (receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC): 0.930 vs. 0.885, 0.833 or 0.856, all P < 0.01), as was the validation cohort (ROC 0.906 vs. 0.839, 0.857 or 0.837, all P < 0.05). In Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis, low apoAI levels (< 0.42 g/L) at baseline indicated poor prognosis in ACLF and AD patients. Among the 37 patients, the deceased individuals were characterised with significantly decreased serum apoAI levels during the follow-up test compared with those at baseline (P < 0.05), whereas in patients with a good prognosis, the serum apoAI levels remained stable during the follow-up.

CONCLUSION

In HBV-ACLF and AD patients, lower serum apoAI levels suggest greater disease severity and 90-day mortality risk. For predicting the short-term prognosis of these patients, the new Lip-ACLF score might serve as a potential model.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the ‘Kyoto Consensus’—steps from Asia

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition associated with high mortality in the absence of liver transplantation. There have been various definitions proposed worldwide. The first consensus report of the working party of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) set in 2004 on ACLF was published in 2009, and the “APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)” was formed in 2012. The AARC database has prospectively collected nearly 10,500 cases of ACLF from various countries in the Asia–Pacific region. This database has been instrumental in developing the AARC score and grade of ACLF, the concept of the ‘Golden Therapeutic Window’, the ‘transplant window’, and plasmapheresis as a treatment modality. Also, the data has been key to identifying pediatric ACLF. The European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL CLIF) and the North American Association for the Study of the End Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) from the West added the concepts of organ failure and infection as precipitants for the development of ACLF and CLIF-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and NACSELD scores for prognostication. The Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) added COSSH-ACLF criteria to manage hepatitis b virus-ACLF with and without cirrhosis. The literature supports these definitions to be equally effective in their respective cohorts in identifying patients with high mortality. To overcome the differences and to develop a global consensus, APASL took the initiative and invited the global stakeholders, including opinion leaders from Asia, EASL and AASLD, and other researchers in the field of ACLF to identify the key issues and develop an evidence-based consensus document. The consensus document was presented in a hybrid format at the APASL annual meeting in Kyoto in March 2024. The ‘Kyoto APASL Consensus’ presented below carries the final recommendations along with the relevant background information and areas requiring future studies.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the 'Kyoto Consensus'-steps from Asia

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition associated with high mortality in the absence of liver transplantation. There have been various definitions proposed worldwide. The first consensus report of the working party of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) set in 2004 on ACLF was published in 2009, and the "APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)" was formed in 2012. The AARC database has prospectively collected nearly 10,500 cases of ACLF from various countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This database has been instrumental in developing the AARC score and grade of ACLF, the concept of the 'Golden Therapeutic Window', the 'transplant window', and plasmapheresis as a treatment modality. Also, the data has been key to identifying pediatric ACLF. The European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL CLIF) and the North American Association for the Study of the End Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) from the West added the concepts of organ failure and infection as precipitants for the development of ACLF and CLIF-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and NACSELD scores for prognostication. The Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) added COSSH-ACLF criteria to manage hepatitis b virus-ACLF with and without cirrhosis. The literature supports these definitions to be equally effective in their respective cohorts in identifying patients with high mortality. To overcome the differences and to develop a global consensus, APASL took the initiative and invited the global stakeholders, including opinion leaders from Asia, EASL and AASLD, and other researchers in the field of ACLF to identify the key issues and develop an evidence-based consensus document. The consensus document was presented in a hybrid format at the APASL annual meeting in Kyoto in March 2024. The 'Kyoto APASL Consensus' presented below carries the final recommendations along with the relevant background information and areas requiring future studies.

Sex disparities in acute-on-chronic liver failure: From admission to the intensive care unit to liver transplantation

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical syndrome characterized by acute liver decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease, marked by systemic inflammation and systemic organ failure. In this review, we discussed sex-related disparities in the incidence, prognosis, and access to liver transplantation (LT) for patients with ACLF, particularly during Intensive Care Unit (ICU) management. Some studies have suggested that ACLF is more prevalent among male patients admitted to the ICU, and they have higher mortality rates than females. Available prognostic scores, such as CLIF-C or TAM-score, lack sex-specific adjustments. Sarcopenia seems to enhance the accuracy of these scores though this is observed only in male individuals. LT is the only effective treatment for patients with ACLF grade 2-3 who do not respond to medical therapies. Sex-related disparities occur in both access to LT and post-transplant outcomes, although the influence of sex on the prevalence, clinical course, and listing for LT in ACLF remains largely undetermined. A sex-orientated analysis of ICU outcomes in ACLF would facilitate the development of sex-orientated management strategies, thereby improving patients' outcomes.

Safety and Efficacy of DPMAS in Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Based on Different Platelet Count Levels

To investigate the effect of different platelet (PLT) counts on the safety and efficacy of the double-plasma molecular absorption system (DPMAS) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). A total of 156 patients with ACLF receiving DPMAS were divided into the observed group (40 × 109/L ≤ PLT < 50 × 109/L) and the control group (PLT ≥ 50 × 109/L) according to PLT count level. The safety and efficacy indices of bleeding-related complications, PLT reduction rate, total bilirubin (TBIL) reduction rate, and 28-days survival rate after DPMAS were analyzed and compared between the two groups. The incidence of bleeding complications during and after DPMAS in the observed and control groups (14.3% vs. 14.9%, p = 0.922), the decline rate of PLT immediately and 24 h after treatment (0.13 vs. 0.11/0.05 vs. 0.09, p = 0.256/0.161), and the 28-days survival rate after treatment (76.2% vs. 75.4%, p = 0.923) were not significantly different. The thromboelastogram before DPMAS showed no significant difference in PLT function between the two groups (p > 0.05). Although the TBIL level of the two groups rebounded 24 h after treatment compared with immediately after treatment, it decreased significantly immediately and 24 h after treatment compared with pre-treatment levels (p < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the rate of decline of serum TBIL immediately after treatment and 24 h after treatment between the two groups (0.33 vs. 0.35/0.14 vs. 0.16, p = 0.193 and 0.653, respectively). DPMAS is safe and effective in patients with ACLF with 40 × 109/L ≤ PLT count < 50 × 109/L.

Plasma galectin-3 can be considered as a non-invasive marker to predict the prognosis of ACLF patients with new typing

Very recently, we creatively put forward a new classification for ACLF patients, which lays the foundation for the establishment of prognostic model that can accurately predict the prognosis of ACLF patients. Herein, we found: galectin-3 levels were higher in type A ACLF patients compared to those of type B patients; galectin-3 expression was closely correlated with TBil, PTA/INR and MELD; galectin-3 is an independent predictive factor for rapid progression in ACLF, and exhibited superior predictive value for the prognosis of type A ACLF patients than MELD score; and the survival rate was remarkably higher in ACLF patients with lower galectin-3 expression. Collectively, galectin-3 can be considered as a non-invasive biomarker to predict the prognosis of ACLF patients with new typing. Our findings help advance the time window of prognosis prediction for type A and type B ACLF patients from 4 weeks to the baseline, thereby identifying ACLF patients who really need liver transplantation earlier and improving the survival of ACLF patients.

AKI in ACLF: navigating the complex therapeutic puzzle

INTRODUCTION

Acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is driven by the severity of systemic inflammation, acute portal hypertension driving circulatory dysfunction, hyperbilirubinemia, and toxicity of bile acids. The spectrum is mostly structural, associated with reduced response to vasoconstrictors. The progression is rapid, and need of renal replacement therapy and extracorporeal therapies may be required for the management. The development of renal failure is usually considered when defining the syndrome of ACLF.

AREAS COVERED

In the current review we discuss the pathophysiological basis, natural course, and response to the current therapeutic modalities and challenges in assessing and managing AKI in patients with ACLF. We conducted a comprehensive search of electronic databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus using keywords like lactate, NGAL, and PHTN, as well as CRRT, PLEX, ACLF, and AKI phases for our review. Peer-reviewed English papers that addressed our issue were considered.

EXPERT OPINION

The difficulties and specific management strategies for AKI in ACLF patients are discussed emphasizing the importance of customized protocols, risk assessment guided by biomarkers, and investigation of extracorporeal therapies that target bile acids.

aCCI-HBV-ACLF: A Novel Predictive Model for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Early identification of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) holds crucial importance in guiding clinical management and reducing mortality. However, existing scoring systems often overlook patient's underlying clinical condition, which significantly impacts prognosis.

AIMS

Use the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI) to evaluate the patient's complications to develop a more precise model for predicting transplant-free mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

METHODS

Nine hundred and six patients were included for investigation and were segregated into a training cohort and a temporal validation cohort according to the chronological order of admission in a ratio of 7:3. In the training cohort, univariate analysis, logistic regression analysis and LASSO regression analysis were used to construct a prognostic model and it was subsequently validated in a temporal validation cohort and an external validation cohort.

RESULTS

We found total bilirubin, neutrophils, international normalised ratio and aCCI exhibited significant associations with 28-day transplant-free mortality and established a novel prognostic model, named aCCI-HBV-ACLF. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) values of 0.859 for 28-day mortality, 0.822 for 90-day mortality. In the temporal validation cohort, aCCI-HBV-ACLF achieved area under the ROC values of 0.869 for 28-day mortality and 0.850 for 90-day mortality. In the external validation cohort, aCCI-HBV-ACLF had area under the ROC values of 0.868 for 28-day mortality and 0.888 for 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposes a new prognostic model, which achieved excellent predictive ability for 28-/90-day transplant-free mortality rates among patients with HBV-ACLF.

Long-term outcome following liver transplantation of patients with ACLF grade 3

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Utility, a major principle for allocation in the context of transplantation, is questioned in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF-3) who undergo liver transplantation (LT). We aimed to explore long-term outcomes of patients included in a three-centre retrospective French study published in 2017.

METHOD

All patients with ACLF-3 (n = 73), as well as their transplanted matched controls with ACLF-2 (n = 145), 1 (n = 119) and no ACLF (n = 292), who participated in the Princeps study published in 2017 were included. We explored 5- and 10-year patient and graft survival rates, causes of death and their predictive factors.

RESULTS

Median follow-up of patients with ACLF-3 was 7.5 years. At LT, median MELD was 40. In patients with ACLF-3, 2, 1 and no ACLF, 5-year patient survival rates were 72.6% vs. 69.7% vs. 76.4% vs. 77.0%, respectively (p = 0.31). Ten-year patient survival for ACLF-3 was 56.8% and was not different to other groups (p = 0.37). Leading causes of death in patients with ACLF-3 were infections (33.3%) and cardiovascular events (23.3%). After exclusion of early death, UCLA futility risk score, age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index and CLIF-C ACLF score were independently associated with 10-year patient survival. Long-term graft survival rates were not different across the groups. Clinical frailty scale and WHO performance status improved over time in patients alive after 5 years.

CONCLUSION

5- and 10-year patient and graft survival rates were not different in patients with ACLF-3 compared to matched controls. 5-year patient survival is higher than the 50%-70% threshold defining the utility of a liver graft. Efforts should focus on candidate selection based on comorbidities, as well as the prevention of infection and cardiovascular events.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

While short-term outcomes following liver transplantation in the most severely ill patients with cirrhosis (acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 [ACLF-3]) are known, long-term data are limited, raising questions about the utility of graft allocation in the context of scarce medical resources. This study provides a favourable long-term update, confirming no differences in 5- and 10-year patient and graft survival following liver transplantation in patients with ACLF-3 compared to matched patients with ACLF-2, ACLF-1, and no-ACLF. The study highlights the risk of dying from infection and cardiovascular causes in the long-term and identifies scores including comorbidity evaluation, such as the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index, as independently associated with long-term survival. Therefore, physicians should consider the cumulative burden of comorbidities when deciding whether to transplant these patients. Additionally, after transplantation, the study encourages mitigating infectious risk with tailored immunosuppressive regimens and tightly managing cardiovascular risk over time.

Benefits of liver transplant in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Implementation of an urgent living-donor program

We evaluated the liver transplantation (LT) criteria in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), incorporating an urgent living-donor LT (LDLT) program. Critically ill patients with a Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score) ≥65, previously considered unsuitable for LT, were included to explore the excess mortality threshold of the CLIF-C_ACLF_score (CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold). We followed 854 consecutive patients with ACLF (276 ACLF grade 2 and 215 ACLF grade 3) over 10 years among 4432 LT recipients between 2008 and 2019. For advanced ACLF patients without immediate deceased-donor (DD) allocation, an urgent LDLT program was expedited. The CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold was determined by the metrics of transplant survival benefit: >60% 1-year and >50% 5-year survival rate. In predicting post-LT mortality, the CLIF-C_ACLF_score outperformed the (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) MELD-Na and (model for end-stage liver disease) MELD-3.0 scores but was comparable to the Sundaram ACLF-LT-mortality score. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65 (n = 54) demonstrated posttransplant survival benefits, with 1-year and 5-year survival rates of 66.7% and 50.4% (P < .001), respectively. Novel CLIF-C_ACLF_score_threshold for 1-year and 5-year mortalities was 70 and 69, respectively. A CLIF-C_ACLF_score-based nomogram for predicting survival probabilities, integrating cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and donor type (LDLT vs DDLT), was generated. This study suggests reconsidering the criteria for unsuitable LT with a CLIF-C_ACLF_score ≥65. Implementing a timely salvage LT strategy, and incorporating urgent LDLT, can enhance survival rates.

Palliative care for end-stage liver disease and acute on chronic liver failure: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

End stage liver disease (ESLD) represents a growing health concern characterized by elevated morbidity and mortality, particularly among individual ineligible for liver transplantation. The demand for palliative care (PC) is pronounced in patients grappling with ESLD and acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF). Unfortunately, the historical underutilization of PC in ESLD patients, despite their substantial needs and those of their family caregivers, underscores the imperative of seamlessly integrating PC principles into routine healthcare practices across the entire disease spectrum.

AIM

To comprehensively investigate the evidence surrounding the benefits of incorporating PC into the comprehensive care plan for individuals confronting ESLD and/or ACLF.

METHODS

A systematic search in the Medline (PubMed) database was performed using a predetermined search command, encompassing studies published in English without any restrictions on the publication date. Subsequently, the retrieved studies were manually examined. Simple descriptive analyses were employed to summarize the results.

RESULTS

The search strategies yielded 721 references. Following the final analysis, 32 full-length references met the inclusion criteria and were consequently incorporated into the study. Meticulous data extraction from these 32 studies was undertaken, leading to the execution of a comprehensive narrative systematic review. The review found that PC provides significant benefits, reducing symptom burden, depressive symptoms, readmission rates, and hospital stays. Yet, barriers like the appeal of transplants and misconceptions about PC hinder optimal utilization. Integrating PC early, upon the diagnosis of ESLD and ACLF, regardless of transplant eligibility and availability, improves the quality of life for these patients.

CONCLUSION

Despite the substantial suffering and poor prognosis associated with ESLD and ACLF, where liver transplantation stands as the only curative treatment, albeit largely inaccessible, PC services have been overtly provided too late in the course of the illness. A comprehensive understanding of PC's pivotal role in treating ESLD and ACLF is crucial for overcoming these barriers, involving healthcare providers, patients, and caregivers.

The Aachen ACLF ICU score predicts ICU mortality in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) defines a heterogeneous syndrome involving acute decompensation in patients with pre-existing liver disease accompanied by (multi-)organ failure. This study aimed to develop a simple, reliable machine learning (ML) model to predict mortality in ACLF patients receiving intensive care unit (ICU) treatment. Data from 206 patients admitted to the ICU at RWTH Aachen University Hospital between 2015 and 2021 were retrospectively analyzed with ICU mortality as the primary outcome. An ICU mortality prediction model was developed by logistic regression and validated by 5-fold cross validation. Performance metrics were assessed to evaluate the model's accuracy and compare to existing mortality scores. ICU mortality was 60%. The chronic-liver-failure-consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was the best predictor of ICU mortality. ML generated seven models using five to thirteen features. The best-performing model included CLIF-C ACLFs, number of organ failures, Horovitz quotient (FiO2/PaO2), FiO2 and lactate. The newly developed Aachen ACLF ICU (ACICU) score demonstrated exceptional predictive accuracy for ICU mortality (AUROC 0.96), underscoring its potential for mortality and futility assessment in critically ill ACLF patients complementing existing prognostic tools. The ACICU score www.acicu-score.com is an easy-to-use tool for predicting ICU mortality in patients with ACLF offering high predictive performance.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is an established life-saving procedure. The field of LT has changed in the past 10 years from several perspectives, with the expansion of indications, transplantation of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, evolution of transplant oncology, the use of donations after cardiac death, new surgical techniques, and prioritisation of recipients on the waiting list. In addition, the advent of organ perfusion machines, the recognition of new forms of rejection, and the attention paid to the transition from paediatric to adult patients, have all improved the management of LT recipients. The purpose of the EASL guidelines presented here is not to cover all aspects of LT but to focus on developments since the previous EASL guidelines published in 2016.

Hepatic and extrahepatic metabolic modulation in hbv-related decompensated cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and decompensated cirrhosis (DC) are life-threatening syndromes that can develop at the end-stage of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Both ACLF and DC are complicated by hepatic and extrahepatic pathogeneses. To better understand the compartment-specific metabolic modulations related to their pathogenesis, HBV-DC, HBV-ACLF patients, and controls (30 each) were analyzed by metabolomics using portal (Port), hepatic vein (Hep), and peripheral (Peri) serum. Compartment ratios of metabolites (RatioHep/Port, RatioPeri/Hep, and RatioPort/Peri) were calculated. The liver tissues (10 per group) were analyzed using transcriptomics and metabolomics. An additional 75 patients with ACLF, 20 with DC, and 20 with liver cirrhosis (LC) were used to confirm oxlipid dysregulation. Both multi-omics datasets suggest suppressed energy, amino acid, and pyrimidine metabolism in the ACLF/DC liver. The serum metabolomic variations were contributed primarily by disease rather than sampling compartments, as both HBV-ACLF and HBV-DC patients demonstrated abnormal profiles of amino acids and peptides, indoles, purines, steroids, and benzimidazoles. In ACLF/DC patients, impaired hepatic metabolism resulted in a highly correlated hepatic and portal vein serum metabolome and release of inflammatory lipids and heme metabolites from the liver. HBV-ACLF showed higher RatioPeri/Hep of extrahepatic inflammatory oxlipids, while HBV-DC patients showed higher RatioPort/Peri of gut microbial metabolites. An inflammatory oxlipid outburst was confirmed in the early stages of HBV-ACLF. The inflammatory effects of the selected oxlipids were confirmed in monocytes. These findings support a synergy between liver-specific mechanisms and systemic inflammation in ACLF/DC development, and that pro-inflammatory oxlipids are metabolic signatures of early HBV-ACLF.

Predicting the 28-day prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

We aimed to establish a prognostic predictive model based on machine learning (ML) methods to predict the 28-day mortality of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients, and to evaluate treatment effectiveness.

METHODS

ACLF patients from six tertiary hospitals were included for analysis. Features for ML models' development were selected by LASSO regression. Models' performance was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy. Shapley additive explanation was used to explain the ML model.

RESULTS

Of the 736 included patients, 587 were assigned to a training set and 149 to an external validation set. Features selected included age, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin, PTA, and creatinine. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model outperformed other ML models in the prognostic prediction of ACLF patients, with the highest AUC and accuracy. Delong's test demonstrated that the XGB model outperformed Child-Pugh score, MELD score, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OF, and CLIF-C ACLF. Sequential assessments at baseline, day 3, day 7, and day 14 improved the predictive performance of the XGB-ML model and can help clinicians evaluate the effectiveness of medical treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We established an XGB-ML model to predict the 28-day mortality of ACLF patients as well as to evaluate the treatment effectiveness.

Development and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients receiving artificial liver therapy

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is frequently accompanied by short-term morbidity and mortality. However, there have been no studies on the associations between baseline clinicopathologic characteristics at hospital admission and clinical prognosis after receiving artificial liver therapy. Therefore, the current study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting the outcomes of patients with HBV-ACLF following artificial liver support.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 110 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with HBV-ACLF between January 2018 and August 2022 was conducted. First, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic factors significantly associated with patient outcomes. Moreover, a predictive nomogram model underlying the prognostic factors was established and further evaluated. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to gauge the predictive accuracy. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to assess the discriminability and clinical effectiveness, respectively.

RESULTS

In patients with HBV-ACLF, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that age ≥ 40 years (OR 6.76, p = 0.025), middle-stage liver failure (OR 49.96, p < 0.001), end-stage liver failure (OR 19.27, p = 0.002), hepatic encephalopathy (OR 7.06, p = 0.032), upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (OR 47.24, p = 0.047), and artificial liver therapy consisting of plasma exchange (PE) + plasma exchange double plasma molecular adsorption system (DPMAS) (OR 0.26, p = 0.04) were identified as prognostic factors. Then, we established and evaluated a predictive nomogram with an AUC of 0.885, which showed better predictive accuracy than the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (AUC of 0.634) and the Child-Pugh score (AUC of 0.611). Moreover, the calibration curve showed good agreement between the ideal and bias-corrected curves. Decision curve analysis confirmed the better clinical utility of this approach.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and evaluated a unique nomogram that was more accurate than conventional prognostic models for predicting the clinical prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients receiving artificial liver therapy. As a result, the nomogram may be a helpful tool in clinical decision-making to predict the outcomes of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Liver transplantation for acute liver failure and acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver (ACLF) are distinct phenotypes of liver failure and, thus, need to be compared and contrasted for appropriate management. There has been a significant improvement in the outcomes of these patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). Survival post-LT for ALF and ACLF ranges between 90% and 95% and 80% and 90% at 1 year, futility criteria have been described in both ALF and ACLF where organ failures define survival. Plasma exchange and continuous renal replacement therapy may serve as bridging therapies. Identifying the futility of LT is as necessary as the utility of LT in patients with ALF and ACLF. The role of regenerative therapies such as granulocyte colony-stimulating factors in ACLF and hepatocyte and xenotransplantation in both conditions remains uncertain. Measures to increase the donor pool through increasing deceased donor transplants in Asian countries, living donations in Western countries, auxiliary liver transplants, and ABO-incompatible liver transplants are necessary to improve the survival of these patients. In this review, we discuss the similarities and differences in clinical characteristics and the timing and outcomes of LT for ALF and ACLF, briefly highlighting the role of bridging therapies and providing an overview of recent advances in the management of ALF and ACLF.

Managing Multiorgan Failure in Acute on Chronic Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined as a clinical syndrome that develops in patients with chronic liver disease characterized by the presence of organ failure and high short-term mortality, although there is still no worldwide consensus on diagnostic criteria. Management of ACLF is mainly based on treatment of "precipitating factors" (the most common are infections, alcohol-associated hepatitis, hepatitis B flare, and bleeding) and support of organ failure, which often requires admission to the intensive care unit. Liver transplantation should be considered in patients with ACLF grades 2 to 3 as a potentially life-saving treatment. When a transplant is not indicated, palliative care should be considered after 3 to 7 days of full organ support in patients with at least four organ failures or a CLIF-C ACLF score of >70. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the management of organ failure in patients with ACLF, focusing on recent advances.

From prognostication to therapeutics: Four key questions to accelerate the development of therapeutics for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has come a long way as a clinical concept within the hepatology and liver transplant communities. Though the term was proposed in 1995, the first recognition of the entity along with a consensus definition emerged in 2009. Subsequently, the entity has sparked great interest, inspired several consensus conferences, and inspired national societies to form professional ACLF affinity groups (eg, special interest group). Multicenter consortia have been established all over the world to study this condition, including the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure consortium, Asian Pacific Association for the Study of Liver Diseases ACLF Research Consortium, Chronic Liver disease Evolution And Registry for Events and Decompensation, and the LiverHope Consortium. Collectively, these consortia have enrolled tens of thousands of patients with or at risk for ACLF across dozens of countries and characterized in detail the predictors, pathogenesis, and progression of patients with ACLF. Perhaps most importantly, they have produced essential data characterizing the excess morbidity and mortality that patients with ACLF face, making a compelling case for the urgent need for therapeutic strategies for this condition.

[Ethical aspects regarding the management of patients with liver disease in the intensive care unit]

BACKGROUND

Especially in terms of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis, discussions quickly arise in times of scarce resources about the justification for carrying out (prolonged) intensive care measures.

AIMS, MATERIALS, AND METHODS

The following review aims to address ethical aspects specifically in patients with liver cirrhosis in the intensive care unit. A possible structured approach is presented.

CONCLUSION

A general recommendation is not possible. Ultimately, decisions remain on a case-by-case basis and have to take a wide variety of perspectives into account.

Frailty and sarcopenia in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: Assessment and risk in the liver transplant setting

Frailty and sarcopenia are well-recognized factors related to worse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis, including liver transplant (LT) candidates. Implications of pre-LT functional and muscle deterioration also affect post-LT outcomes. Patients with cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) have a lower survival rate, both before and after LT. There is a need to better identify those patients with ACLF who would benefit from LT. This review aims to present the available data about frailty and sarcopenia in patients with ACLF in the LT setting. An exhaustive review of the published literature was conducted. Data regarding frailty and sarcopenia in LT candidates with ACLF are scarce and heterogeneous. Studies evaluating frailty and sarcopenia in critically ill patients outside the liver literature are also presented in this review to enrich the knowledge of this field in expansion. Frailty and sarcopenia seem to contribute to worse outcomes in LT candidates with ACLF, both before and after LT. Sarcopenia evaluation may be the most prudent approach for those very sick patients. Skeletal muscle index assessed by computed tomography is recommended to evaluate sarcopenia. The role of muscle ultrasound and bioelectrical impedance analysis is to be determined. Frailty and sarcopenia are crucial factors to consider on a case-by-case basis in LT candidates with ACLF to improve patient outcomes.

[When should a liver disease patient be admitted to the intensive care unit?]

Liver diseases are a significant global cause of morbidity and mortality. Liver cirrhosis can result in severe complications such as bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and infections. Implementing a clear strategy for intensive care unit (ICU) admission management improves patient outcomes. Hemodynamically significant esophageal/gastric variceal bleeding (E/GVB) and grade 4 HE, when accompanied by the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT), are definitive indications for ICU admission. E/GVB, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), and infections with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) require close and stringent critical assessment. Patients with severe hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) or respiratory failure have increased baseline mortality and most likely benefit from early ICU treatment. Rapid identification of sepsis in patients with liver cirrhosis is a crucial criterion for ICU admission. Prioritizing cases based on mortality risk and clinical urgency enables efficient resource utilization and optimizes patient management. In addition, "Liver Units" provide an intermediate care (IMC) level for patients with liver diseases who require close monitoring but do not need immediate intensive care.

[Liver transplantation in acute and acute-on-chronic liver failure]

Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are diseases with a rapidly progressive course and high mortality. Apart from treating the underlying triggers and intensive care measures, there are very limited therapeutic options for either condition. Liver transplantation is often the only life-saving treatment, but it cannot always be employed due to contraindications and severe disease progression. ACLF is characterized by underlying liver cirrhosis and typical triggers such as bacterial infections, bleeding, or alcohol binges. ALF occurs in previously healthy livers, usually as a result of purely hepatotoxic events. Disease differences are also reflected in the course and regulations of liver transplantation. Newer prognostic parameters and prioritization programs for ACLF can help improve both waiting list mortality and outcomes after transplantation.

Age added to MELD or ACLF predicts survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis declined for liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) that is nonresponsive to corticosteroids is associated with high mortality, particularly with concomitant acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Most patients will not be candidates for liver transplantation (LT) and their outcomes are largely unknown. Our aim was to determine the outcomes of these declined candidates and to derive practical prediction models for transplant-free survival applicable at the time of the waitlist decision.

METHODS

We analyzed a database of patients with severe AH who were hospitalized at a LT center from January 2012 to July 2021, using the National Death Index for those lacking follow-up. Clinical variables were analyzed based on the endpoints of mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used for model derivation.

RESULTS

Over 9.5 years, 206 patients with severe AH were declined for LT, mostly for unfavorable psychosocial profiles, with a mean MELD of 33 (±8), and 61% with ACLF. Over a median follow-up of 521 (17.5-1368) days, 58% (119/206) died at a median of 21 (9-124) days. Of 32 variables, only age added prognostic value to MELD and ACLF grade. CLIF-C ACLF score and 2 new models, MELD-Age and ACLF-Age, had similar predictability (AUROC: 0.73, 0.73, 0.72, respectively), outperforming Lille and Maddrey's (AUROC: 0.63, 0.62). In internal cross-validation, the average AUROC was 0.74. ACLF grade ≥2, MELD score >35, and age >45 years were useful cutoffs for predicting increased 90-day mortality from waitlist decision. Only two patients initially declined for LT for AH subsequently underwent LT (1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with severe AH declined for LT have high short-term mortality and rare rates of subsequent LT. Age added to MELD or ACLF grade enhances survival prediction at the time of waitlist decision in patients with severe AH declined for LT.

Patient Selection for Living Donor Liver Transplantation in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high short-term mortality without liver transplantation (LT). The selection criteria for LT in these patients are not well defined. The objective of this study was to determine factors associated with post-transplant survival in ACLF.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective study of patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for ACLF between 2012 and 2022. Out of 1093 transplants, 110 patients had underlying ACLF, based on the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (EASL-CLIF) criteria. We looked at factors associated with 1-year posttransplant survival.

RESULTS

The median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was 33.5 (31-38), and the 1-year posttransplant survival was 72%. Six risk factors were associated with posttransplant survival, namely, body mass index > 30 kg/m2 [HR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.8-10.7], platelet count < 66,000/μl [HR, 2.91; CI,1.2-6.6], poor response to medical treatment [HR, 2.6; CI, 1.1-5.7], drug-resistant bacterial or fungal cultures [HR, 4.2; CI, 1.4-12.4], serum creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl [HR, 3.4; CI, 1.5-7.7], and graft-to-recipient weight ratio < 0.7 [HR, 4.8; CI, 1.4-16.3]. The 1-year post-transplant survival was 84% in patients with 0-2 risk factors (n = 89) and was 6% with 3 risk factors (n = 15) (P < 0.001). For 1-year posttransplant survival, the area under curve (AUC) for the current model was 0.8 (0.69-0.9). The AUC for CLIF-ACLF, Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), and EASL-CLIF ACLF grades was < 0.5.

CONCLUSION

In LT for ACLF, acceptable survival can be achieved when less than three high-risk factors are present.