A fuzzy logic expert system for evaluating policy progress towards sustainability goals

Enabling conditions for an equitable and sustainable blue economy

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a 'blue economy'-socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries^1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity-not just resource availability-are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors^1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.

Holistic Environmental Approaches and Aichi Biodiversity Targets: accomplishments and perspectives for marine ecosystems

In order to help safeguard biodiversity from global changes, the Conference of the Parties developed a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity for the period 2011-2020 that included a list of twenty specific objectives known as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. With the end of that timeframe in sight, and despite major advancements in biodiversity conservation, evidence suggests that the majority of the Targets are unlikely to be met. This article is part of a series of perspective pieces from the 4th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity (May 2018, Montréal, Canada) to identify next steps towards successful biodiversity conservation in marine environments. We specifically reviewed holistic environmental assessment studies (HEA) and their contribution to reaching the Targets. Our analysis was based on multiple environmental approaches which can be considered as holistic, and we discuss how HEA can contribute to the Aichi Biodiversity Targets in the near future. We found that only a few HEA articles considered a specific Biodiversity Target in their research, and that Target 11, which focuses on marine protected areas, was the most commonly cited. We propose five research priorities to enhance HEA for marine biodiversity conservation beyond 2020: (i) expand the use of holistic approaches in environmental assessments, (ii) standardize HEA vocabulary, (iii) enhance data collection, sharing and management, (iv) consider ecosystem spatio-temporal variability and (v) integrate ecosystem services in HEA. The consideration of these priorities will promote the value of HEA and will benefit the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.

A practical review and taxonomy of fuzzy expert systems: methods and applications

Purpose

Expert systems are computer-based systems that mimic the logical processes of human experts or organizations to give advice in a specific domain of knowledge. Fuzzy expert systems use fuzzy logic to handle uncertainties generated by imprecise, incomplete and/or vague information. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive review of the methods and applications in fuzzy expert systems.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have carefully reviewed 281 journal publications and 149 conference proceedings published over the past 37 years since 1982. The authors grouped the journal publications and conference proceedings separately accordingly to the methods, application domains, tools and inference systems.

Findings

The authors have synthesized the findings and proposed useful suggestions for future research directions. The authors show that the most common use of fuzzy expert systems is in the medical field.

Originality/value

Fuzzy logic can be used to manage uncertainty in expert systems and solve problems that cannot be solved effectively with conventional methods. In this study, the authors present a comprehensive review of the methods and applications in fuzzy expert systems which could be useful for practicing managers developing expert systems under uncertainty.

A metadata approach to evaluate the state of ocean knowledge: Strengths, limitations, and application to Mexico

Climate change, mismanaged resource extraction, and pollution are reshaping global marine ecosystems with direct consequences on human societies. Sustainable ocean development requires knowledge and data across disciplines, scales and knowledge types. Although several disciplines are generating large amounts of data on marine socio-ecological systems, such information is often underutilized due to fragmentation across institutions or stakeholders, limited standardization across scale, time or disciplines, and the fact that information is often not searchable within existing databases. Compiling metadata, the information which describes existing sets of data, is an effective tool that can address these challenges, particularly when metadata corresponding to multiple datasets can be combined to integrate, organize and classify multidisciplinary data. Here, using Mexico as a case study, we describe the compilation and analysis of a metadatabase of ocean knowledge that aims to improve access to information, facilitate multidisciplinary data sharing and integration, and foster collaboration among stakeholders. We also evaluate the knowledge trends and gaps for informing ocean management. Analysis of the metadatabase highlights that past and current research in Mexico focuses strongly on ecology and fisheries, with biological data more consistent over time and space compared to data on human dimensions. Regional imbalances in available information were also evident, with most available information corresponding to the Gulf of California, Campeche Bank and Caribbean and less available for the central and south Pacific and the western Gulf of Mexico. Despite existing knowledge gaps in Mexico and elsewhere, we argue that systematic efforts such as this can often reveal an abundance of information for decision-makers to develop policies that meet key commitments on ocean sustainability. Surmounting current cross-scale social and ecological challenges for sustainability requires transdisciplinary approaches. Metadatabases are critical tools to make efficient use of existing data, highlight and address strengths and deficiencies, and develop scenarios to inform policies for managing complex marine social-ecological systems.