Spatially dynamic forest management to sustain biodiversity and economic returns

Cost-efficiency analysis of multiple ecosystem services across forest management regimes

Forest management is at the crossroads of economic, environmental, and social goals, often requiring strategic trade-offs. As global demands surge, it's vital to employ management strategies fostering multifunctional landscapes, enabling ecosystem integrity while procuring resources. Historically, the boreal forest in Fennoscandia has been intensively managed for timber, causing environmental shifts and conflicts with biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation policies. Application of current management practices while increasing harvests are a threat to both biodiversity and carbon stocks. To explore this issue, we quantify the cost-efficiency of two forest management regimes: rotation forestry (RF) and continuous cover forestry (CCF), considering specific forest attributes like soil type (mineral and peat soils), site type (fertility classes) and tree stand age, which have been underexplored in previous research. We simulated 45,559 forest stands for 100 years in Northern boreal forests of Finland. We proposed two straightforward cost-efficiency indices (CEI) to evaluate the performance of these management regimes, specifically focusing on their impact on economic output, biodiversity conservation (measured as a biodiversity index for six forest vertebrates, including five bird species and one mammal) and carbon stock. Our findings suggest that continuous cover forestry holds the potential to deliver more cost-efficient ecosystem services and maintain greater biodiversity compared to rotation forestry approaches. Continuous cover forestry, however, is not optimal for all at management units, which calls for alternative management options depending on the stand characteristics. The cost-efficiency indices performance of rotation forestry and continuous cover forestry depend on the characteristics of the initial stand which is largely determined by the previous management of the stand. Our results contribute to guiding forest management towards enhanced sustainability and ecological balance. The great variation in stand characteristics suggest a need for diverse management strategies to create multifunctional landscapes. Our proposed cost-efficiency indices could serve as practical tools for decision-making.

Modelling the effects of climate and management on the distribution of deadwood in European forests

Deadwood is a key old-growth element in European forests and a cornerstone of biodiversity conservation practices in the region, recognized as an important indicator of sustainable forest management. Despite its importance as a legacy element for biodiversity, uncertainties remain on the drivers of deadwood potentials, its spatial distribution in European forests and how it may change in the future due to management and climate change. To fill this gap, we combined a comprehensive deadwood dataset to fit a machine learning and a Bayesian hurdle-lognormal model against multiple environmental and socio-economic predictors. We deployed the models on the gridded predictors to forecast changes in deadwood volumes in Europe under alternative climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and management scenarios (biodiversity-oriented and production-oriented strategies). Our results show deadwood hotspots in montane forests of central Europe and unmanaged forests in Scandinavia. Future climate conditions may reduce deadwood potentials up to 13% under a mid-century climate, with regional losses amounting to up to 22% in Southern Europe. Nevertheless, changes in management towards more biodiversity-oriented strategies, including an increase in the share of mixed forests and extended rotation lengths, may mitigate this loss to a 4% reduction in deadwood potentials. We conclude that adaptive management can promote deadwood under changing environmental conditions and thereby support habitat maintenance and forest multifunctionality.

Enhancing multifunctionality in European boreal forests: The potential role of Triad landscape functional zoning

Land-use policies aim at enhancing the sustainable use of natural resources. The Triad approach has been suggested to balance the social, ecological, and economic demands of forested landscapes. The core idea is to enhance multifunctionality at the landscape level by allocating landscape zones with specific management priorities, i.e., production (intensive management), multiple use (extensive management), and conservation (forest reserves). We tested the efficiency of the Triad approach and identified the respective proportion of above-mentioned zones needed to enhance multifunctionality in Finnish forest landscapes. Through a simulation and optimization framework, we explored a range of scenarios of the three zones and evaluated how changing their relative proportion (each ranging from 0 to 100%) impacted landscape multifunctionality, measured by various biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators. The results show that maximizing multifunctionality required around 20% forest area managed intensively, 50% extensively, and 30% allocated to forest reserves. In our case studies, such landscape zoning represented a good compromise between the studied multifunctionality components and maintained 61% of the maximum achievable net present value (i.e., total timber economic value). Allocating specific proportion of the landscape to a management zone had distinctive effects on the optimized economic or multifunctionality values. Net present value was only moderately impacted by shifting from intensive to extensive management, while multifunctionality benefited from less intensive and more diverse management regimes. This is the first study to apply Triad in a European boreal forest landscape, highlighting the usefulness of this approach. Our results show the potential of the Triad approach in promoting forest multifunctionality, as well as a strong trade-off between net present value and multifunctionality. We conclude that simply applying the Triad approach does not implicitly contribute to an overall increase in forest multifunctionality, as careful forest management planning still requires clear landscape objectives.

Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale

Forest management methods and harvest intensities influence wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. We devised different management scenarios by means of stakeholder analysis and incorporated them in the forest growth simulator PREBAS. To analyse impacts of harvest intensity, we used constraints on total harvest: business as usual, low harvest, intensive harvest and no harvest. We carried out simulations on a wall-to-wall grid in Finland until 2050. Our objectives were to (1) test how the management scenarios differed in their projections, (2) analyse the potential wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under the different harvest levels, and (3) compare different options of allocating the scenarios and protected areas. Harvest level was key to carbon stocks and fluxes regardless of management actions and moderate changes in proportion of strictly protected forest. In contrast, biodiversity was more dependent on other management variables than harvesting levels, and relatively independent of carbon stocks and fluxes.

Estimating biomass and soil carbon change at the level of forest stands using repeated forest surveys assisted by airborne laser scanner data

BACKGROUND

Under the growing pressure to implement mitigation actions, the focus of forest management is shifting from a traditional resource centric view to incorporate more forest ecosystem services objectives such as carbon sequestration. Estimating the above-ground biomass in forests using airborne laser scanning (ALS) is now an operational practice in Northern Europe and is being adopted in many parts of the world. In the boreal forests, however, most of the carbon (85%) is stored in the soil organic (SO) matter. While this very important carbon pool is "invisible" to ALS, it is closely connected and feeds from the growing forest stocks. We propose an integrated methodology to estimate the changes in forest carbon pools at the level of forest stands by combining field measurements and ALS data.

RESULTS

ALS-based models of dominant height, mean diameter, and biomass were fitted using the field observations and were used to predict mean tree biophysical properties across the entire study area (50 km²) which was in turn used to estimate the biomass carbon stocks and the litter production that feeds into the soil. For the soil carbon pool estimation, we used the Yasso15 model. The methodology was based on (1) approximating the initial soil carbon stocks using simulations; (2) predicting the annual litter input based on the predicted growing stocks in each cell; (3) predicting the soil carbon dynamics of the annual litter using the Yasso15 soil carbon model. The estimated total carbon change (standard errors in parenthesis) for the entire area was 0.741 (0.14) Mg ha^-1 yr^-1. The biomass carbon change was 0.405 (0.13) Mg ha^-1 yr^-1, the litter carbon change (e.g., deadwood and leaves) was 0.346 (0.027) Mg ha^-1 yr^-1, and the change in SO carbon was - 0.01 (0.003) Mg ha^-1 yr^-1.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that ALS data can be used indirectly through a chain of models to estimate soil carbon changes in addition to changes in biomass at the primary level of forest management, namely the forest stands. Having control of the errors contributed by each model, the stand-level uncertainty can be estimated under a model-based inferential approach.

Spatial trade-offs between ecological and economical sustainability in the boreal production forest

Economically-oriented forestry aims to sustain timber harvest revenues, while ecologically-oriented management supplies suitable habitat for species using deadwood as primary habitat. As these objectives are conflicting, planning for economic and ecological sustainability involves compromise and trade-offs. We analyze the spatial trade-offs between the economic value from timber harvesting and the volume of deadwood in the boreal forest. We assess these trade-offs from three perspectives: (1) landscape characteristics, affected by conservation strategies; (2) forest management promoting either economic or ecological values; (3) uncertainty in inventory errors undermining the estimate of the two sustainability objectives. To reveal the tradeoffs between the forest economic and ecological values we simulated and optimized a production landscape in Finland 30 years into the future accounting for uncertainty in biomass and deadwood inventories. We found that, with a limited reduction in timber harvesting (7%), (i) the amount of deadwood increased more in non-aggregated (45%) than in aggregated (16%) stands, (ii) constraining stands in adjacent areas further increased deadwood (21%) respect to the matrix and (iii) 7% of connected stand area harbored ≥20 m³/ha deadwood supporting survival of near-threatened species. Our results demonstrate that the structure of the landscape for biodiversity can be improved with limited economic losses. However, improving habitat configuration requires larger economic losses than only increasing habitat amount, but its ecological benefits are larger both for common and red-listed species. We found that management oriented towards stand aggregation not only creates connected areas with high deadwood of high value biodiversity but also improves the value of the whole matrix by decreasing intensive timber harvesting and energy wood collection. Finally, we found that uncertainties alter the estimate of the potential of the forest landscape to supply deadwood, and this can affect the choice of management actions to allocate over the landscape. To conclude, our results demonstrate the trade-offs between economic forest use and conservation are affected differently by landscape characteristics, forest management and uncertainty in inventory errors. As such these drivers should be considered when optimizing the forest for multiple uses.

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

More future synergies and less trade-offs between forest ecosystem services with natural climate solutions instead of bioeconomy solutions

To reach the Paris Agreement, societies need to increase the global terrestrial carbon sink. There are many climate change mitigation solutions (CCMS) for forests, including increasing bioenergy, bioeconomy, and protection. Bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions use climate-smart, intensive management to generate high quantities of bioenergy and bioproducts. Protection of (semi-)natural forests is a major component of "natural climate solution" (NCS) since forests store carbon in standing biomass and soil. Furthermore, protected forests provide more habitat for biodiversity and non-wood ecosystem services (ES). We investigated the impacts of different CCMS and climate scenarios, jointly or in isolation, on future wood ES, non-wood ES, and regulating ES for a major wood provider for the international market. Specifically, we projected future ES given by three CCMS scenarios for Sweden 2020-2100. In the long term, fulfilling the increasing wood demand through bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will decrease ES multifunctionality, but the increased stand age and wood stocks induced by rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will partially offset these negative effects. Adopting bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will have a greater negative impact on ES supply than adopting NCS. Bioenergy or bioeconomy solutions, as well as increasing GHG emissions, will reduce synergies and increase trade-offs in ES. NCS, by contrast, increases the supply of multiple ES in synergy, even transforming current ES trade-offs into future synergies. Moreover, NCS can be considered an adaptation measure to offset negative climate change effects on the future supplies of non-wood ES. In boreal countries around the world, forestry strategies that integrate NCS more deeply are crucial to ensure a synergistic supply of multiple ES.

Natural disturbance regimes as a guide for sustainable forest management in Europe

In Europe, forest management has controlled forest dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience to environmental stress as well as threatens biodiversity, leading to increasing forest susceptibility to an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative management systems, including natural dynamics silviculture (NDS). NDS aims to emulate natural disturbance dynamics at stand and landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations of forest structure and landscape patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) to assess convergence/divergence between natural disturbances and forest management effects. We extended the original CI concept based on disturbance size and frequency by adding the residual structure of canopy trees after a disturbance as a third dimension. We populated the model by compiling data on natural disturbance dynamics and management from 13 countries in Europe, covering four major forest types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, and pine-dominated forests). We found that natural disturbances are highly variable in size, frequency, and residual structure, but European forest management fails to encompass this complexity. Silviculture in Europe is skewed toward even-aged systems, used predominately (72.9% of management) across the countries assessed. The residual structure proved crucial in the comparison of natural disturbances and silvicultural systems. CI indicated the highest congruence between uneven-aged silvicultural systems and key natural disturbance attributes. Even so, uneven-aged practices emulated only a portion of the complexity associated with natural disturbance effects. The remaining silvicultural systems perform poorly in terms of retention compared to tree survivorship after natural disturbances. We suggest that NDS can enrich Europe's portfolio of management systems, for example where wood production is not the primary objective. NDS is especially relevant to forests managed for habitat quality, risk reduction, and a variety of ecosystem services. We suggest a holistic approach integrating NDS with more conventional practices.

Integrating Habitat Quality of the Great Spotted Woodpecker (Dendrocopos major) in Forest Spatial Harvest Scheduling Problems

Biodiversity conservation has been broadly recognized in multi-objective forest management over the past decade. Nevertheless, habitat serves as one of the key influencing factors of biodiversity; while timber production and habitat quality are integrated into forest management operations, our knowledge about the trade-offs between the two is still limited. Thus, we formulated a habitat suitability index model for the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major) and developed a forest planning model that integrated timber revenue and habitat quality for a forest landscape in northeast China. We created three alternative management strategies, which spanned from timber benefit maximization to various management strategies restricted to differing amounts of suitable habitat. The results show that when the amount of suitable habitat comprised 39% to 65% of the landscape, this generated a 40.7% to 74.4% reduction in the total net present value, in comparison with the timber benefit maximization base scenario. The restriction of suitable habitat amount demands significantly decreased the total timber benefit in spatial planning problems. Our planning model provides an efficient approach to learning more about the trade-offs between timber production and wildlife habitat. Furthermore, the consideration of optimal habitat protection rather than increased habitat amount could be helpful for balancing targeting strategies among ecological and economic factors.

Current carbon prices do not stack up to much land use change, despite bundled ecosystem service co-benefits

Biological sources of carbon sequestration such as revegetation have been highlighted as important avenues to combat climate change and meet global targets by the global community including the Paris Climate Agreement. However, current and projected carbon prices present a considerable barrier to broad-scale adoption of tree planting as a key mitigation strategy. One avenue to provide additional economic and environmental incentives to encourage wider adoption of revegetation is the bundling or stacking of additional co-beneficial ecosystem services that can be realized from tree planting. Using the World's largest land-based carbon credit trading scheme, the Australian Emissions Reduction Scheme (ERF), we examine the potential for three pairs of ecosystem services, where the carbon sequestration value of land use change is paired with an additional co-benefit with strong prospects for local tangible benefits to land owners/providers. Two cases consider agricultural provisioning values that can be realized by the landowners in higher returns: increased pollination services and reduced lamb mortality. The third case examined payments for tree plantings along riparian buffers, with payments to farmers by a water utility who realizes the benefit from reduced treatment cost due to water quality improvements. Economic incentives from these co-benefit case studies were found to be mixed, with avoided treatment costs from water quality paired with carbon payments the most promising, while pollination and reduced lamb mortality paired with carbon payments were unable to bridge the economic gap except under the most optimistic assumptions. We conclude that the economics case for significant land use change are likely to be geographically dispersed and only viable in relatively niche landscape positions in high establishment, high opportunity cost areas even when carbon payments are augmented with the value of co-benefits classified as providing direct and local benefits.

Where and When Carbon Storage can be Bought Cost Effectively from Private Forest Owners

The role of time in estimating the cost of forest carbon is often ignored in the literature, nor does the literature address the issues of where and when the purchase of forest carbon storage becomes socially beneficial. In our study, we identify the spatial and temporal allocations of forest carbon investments that are socially beneficial based on empirical analysis. We use the Central and Southern Appalachian region in the Eastern United States as a case study over three periods (i.e., 1992-2001, 2001-2006, and 2006-2011) that are roughly in line with moderate, upturn, and downturn market conditions. The areas from which it is socially beneficial to buy carbon storage are mainly in flat terrain and further away from urban boundaries, hence facing lower development pressure and lower urban net returns. These areas also have less urban land and more forestland. The mapping of carbon cost over the three market conditions in our case study also indicates that the socially beneficial carbon area shrinks as the opportunity cost increases when the real-estate market evolves from a moderately growing to a booming market. The socially beneficial carbon area shrinks further as the demand from urban development on forestland collapses when the real-estate market enters a downturn stage.

Integrated approach for finding the causal effect of waste management over sustainability in the organization

Purpose

In developed and developing countries, organizations need to do sustainability reporting. The purpose of this paper is to identify the vital linkages of sustainability, which helps to capture the existing waste management practice in sustainable organizations.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reports a mixed-method approach for sustainable organization. Initially, the waste management and sustainability factors have been linked together for finding the relation between them through the situation, actor, process, learning, action, performance (SAP-LAP) linkages framework; it has been used as qualitative design details to achieve sustainability in the organization. The waste management and sustainability factors linkages have been used as a reference to guide the cause and effect relationship through decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to upgrade knowledge for a sustainable organization.

Findings

The proposed method has been used to meet the functional requirements of sustainability in the organization. Waste management has been analyzed as the most significant benchmarks to achieve sustainability in the organization. The causal relationship reveals that the social image of an organization as a sustainable organization is the effect of its governmental directives, followed by the organization. The governmental directives is the most influencing dimension, and waste management efficiency and energy consumption are the most related, whereas wastivity is the most flexible dimension of sustainability in the organization. To increase its customer satisfaction, profit share and market value, these factors must be considered as vital factors of organization's sustainable performance.

Research limitations/implications

The scope of the present research has been limited to benchmark sustainability by analyzing eight waste management factors and ten critical sustainability factors that have been grouped into four dimensions in the service sector, which could be generalized. The expert's view has been captured for DEMATEL based on “ratings provided by experts,” which may be biased.

Practical implications

Benchmarked sustainability factors have been proposed to increase the value and performance of the organization. The cause and effect relationship is useful to present the capability of waste management to act as a strong foundation for establishing a sustainable organization, where governmental directives, wastivity, waste management efficiency, and energy consumption act as the benchmarking factors to compare sustainable organization performance in developing the county's viewpoint. The present study considered the fourth dimension of sustainability “government and customer” as the dynamic dimension of sustainability, which can absorb and diffuse the changes in sustainable organization with time and can improvise social acceptance.

Originality/value

The research improves the existing method of measuring the performance of the sustainable organization by using well-established methods.

Protecting biodiversity and economic returns in resource-rich tropical forests

In pursuit of socioeconomic development, many countries are expanding oil and mineral extraction into tropical forests. These activities seed access to remote, biologically rich areas, thereby endangering global biodiversity. Here we demonstrate that conservation solutions that effectively balance the protection of biodiversity and economic revenues are possible in biologically valuable regions. Using spatial data on oil profits and predicted species and ecosystem extents, we optimise the protection of 741 terrestrial species and 20 ecosystems of the Ecuadorian Amazon, across a range of opportunity costs (i.e. sacrifices of extractive profit). For such an optimisation, giving up 5% of a year's oil profits (US$ 221 million) allows for a protected area network that retains of an average of 65% of the extent of each species/ecosystem. This performance far exceeds that of the network produced by simple land area optimisation which requires a sacrifice of approximately 40% of annual oil profits (US$ 1.7 billion), and uses only marginally less land, to achieve equivalent levels of ecological protection. Applying spatial statistics to remotely sensed, historic deforestation data, we further focus the optimisation to areas most threatened by imminent forest loss. We identify Emergency Conservation Targets: areas that are essential to a cost-effective conservation reserve network and at imminent risk of destruction, thus requiring urgent and effective protection. Governments should employ the methods presented here when considering extractive led development options, to responsibly manage the associated ecological-economic trade-offs and protect natural capital. Article Impact Statement: Governments controlling resource extraction from tropical forests can arrange production and conservation to retain biodiversity and profits. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

How Well Do Stakeholder-Defined Forest Management Scenarios Balance Economic and Ecological Forest Values?

Research Highlights: We show the difference in the long-term effects on economic and ecological forest values between four forest management scenarios of a large representative forest landscape. The scenarios were largely formulated by stakeholders representing the main views on how to manage north-European forests. Background and Objectives: Views on how to balance forest management between wood production and biodiversity differ widely between different stakeholder groups. We aim to show the long-term consequences of stakeholder-defined management scenarios, in terms of ecological and economic forest values. Materials and Methods: We simulated management scenarios for a forest landscape in Sweden, based on the management objectives and strategies of key stakeholders. We specifically investigated the difference in economic forest values coupled to wood supply and ecological indicators coupled to structural biodiversity between the scenarios over a 100-year period. The indicators were net present value, harvest, growing stock and increment, along with deadwood volume, the density of large trees, area of old forests and mature broadleaf-rich forests. Results: We show that the scenarios have widely different outcomes in terms of the studied indicators, and that differences in indicator outcome were largely due to different distributions in management regimes, i.e., the proportion of forest left unmanaged or under even-aged management or continuous cover forest, as well as specific retention practices. Retention and continuous cover forestry mitigate the negative effects that clear-cut forestry has upon biodiversity. Conclusions: We found that an increase in the forest area under the continuous cover forestry regime could be a cost-efficient way to increase structural diversity in managed boreal forests. On the other hand, no single management regime performed best with respect to all indicators, which means that a mixture of several management regimes is needed to balance conflicting objectives. We also show that the trade-off between economic and ecological indicators was not directly proportional, meaning that an increase in structural biodiversity may be obtained at a proportionally low cost with appropriate management planning.

Potential efficiency gains in payment programs from resolving spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the cost of supplying forest carbon

The environmental benefits and costs of conservation policies often vary over space and through time. Accounting for this spatial and temporal heterogeneity has important implications for the potential cost effectiveness of different payment program designs. In this study, we examine the cost efficiency gain from spatial and temporal targeting in payment designs for forest carbon storage in the Central and Southern Appalachian Mountains in the Eastern United States. We run a forest land change model and a carbon simulation model utilizing a panel data on forest land and its competing uses, economic returns, and spatial characteristics for each 1 km² grid cells in 1992, 2001, 2006 and 2011. A time- and space-specific carbon cost for each individual 1 km² grid cell is calculated that captures the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in carbon cost efficiency. From there, we compare carbon cost efficiency levels of various payment designs that allow for different degrees of spatial and temporal flexibility. We find that 1) spatial targeting improves carbon cost efficiency, and this efficiency gain is larger as payments become more narrowly targeted, 2) this carbon efficiency gain is present in all market conditions, but is largest in a moderately growing market and smallest in a downturn market, 3) accounting for temporal heterogeneity results in even larger carbon efficiency gains, almost double those from spatial targeting. Just as policies that enable spatial targeting (e.g., auctions) increase cost efficiency savings, so too will policy mechanisms that emphasize budget flexibility through time. These could include utilizing loans or flexible conservation financing, or allowing movement across budgeting categories within a given time period.

Sustainability in Forest Management Revisited Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Techniques

Since its origins, the idea of sustainability has always been linked to forest management. However, nowadays, sustainable forest management has usually been approached by defining a set of criteria and indicators. This paper aims to address sustainability in forest management including a set of criteria encompassing the most common decisions: whether the stands are even or uneven-aged, and the optimal silviculture that should be applied in each stand. For this purpose, a lexicographic goal programming model with two priority levels has been defined, into which six different criteria are integrated. Each criterion corresponds to a particular pillar (economic, technical, or environmental). Furthermore, also incorporated into the model are the preferences of diverse stakeholders, both for the criteria considered in the analysis and for the most suitable silvicultural alternatives to be applied in each stand. This methodology has been applied to a case study in Spain, and the results show much more attractive solutions than the current forest management planning, allowing the obtainment of multi-aged systems that could be favourable for other ecosystem services.

Forest management optimization across spatial scales to reconcile economic and conservation objectives

Conflicts between biodiversity conservation and resource production can be mitigated by multi-objective management planning. Optimizing management for multiple objectives over larger land areas likely entails trading off the practicability of the process against the goodness of the solution. It is therefore worthwhile to resolve how large areas are required as management planning regions to reconcile conflicting objectives as effectively as possible. We aimed to reveal how the extent of forestry planning regions impacts the potential to mitigate a forestry-conservation conflict in Finland, represented as a trade-off between harvest income and deadwood availability. We used forecasted data from a forest simulator, a hierarchy of forestry planning regions, and an optimization model to explore the production possibility frontier between harvest income and deadwood. We compared the overall outcomes when management was optimized within the different-sized planning regions in terms of the two objectives, the spatial variation of deadwood, and the optimal combinations of management regimes. Increasing the size of the planning regions did produce higher simultaneous levels of the two objectives, but the differences were most often of the magnitude of only a few percentages. The differences among the scales were minor also in terms of the spatial variation in deadwood availability and in the optimal management combinations. The conflict between timber harvesting and deadwood availability is only marginally easier to mitigate at large spatial scales than at small forest ownership scales. However, regardless of the spatial scale of planning, the achievable solutions may not be good enough to safeguard deadwood-dependent biodiversity without active deadwood creation.

Effects of Land Use Intensification on Avian Predator Assemblages: A Comparison of Landscapes with Different Histories in Northern Europe

Land use and landcover change alter the ability of habitat networks to maintain viable species populations. While their effects on the quality, amount and patterns of landcover patches are commonly studied, how they affect ecological processes, such as predation on focal species remains neglected. This macroecological study tests the hypothesis that predator assemblages are affected by land use intensity linked to different socio-economic contexts. We measured the distribution and abundance of two avian predator groups (generalist corvid birds and specialist raptors), and proxy variables that mirror their food resources, at three spatial scales in northern Europe’s West and East. In total, we made 900 survey counts for avian predators and their resources in six landcover strata throughout five landscapes and analyzed their relationships. The abundance of omnivorous corvid birds was associated with the number of anthropogenic food resources. Thus, corvid birds were most common in the urban and agricultural landcovers, and where forest cover was low. Corvid bird abundance, and availability of their resources, increased with increasing land use intensity. Raptors were less abundant than corvid birds and most common in semi-natural grasslands. The number of raptor species increased with decreasing land use intensity. This study shows that the abundance and composition of avian predator species must be understood to maintain functional habitat networks.

Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests

Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981-2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.

Diversification of forest management regimes secures tree microhabitats and bird abundance under climate change

The loss of biodiversity in temperate forests due to combined effect of climate change and forest management poses a major threat to the functioning of these ecosystems in the future. Climate change is expected to modify ecological processes and amplify disturbances, compromising the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change and forest management on the abundance of tree microhabitats and forest birds as biodiversity proxies, using an integrated modelling approach. To perform our analysis, we calibrated tree microhabitat and bird abundance in a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, and coupled them with a climate sensitive forest growth model. Our results show generally positive impacts of climate warming and higher harvesting intensity on bird abundance, with up to 30% increase. Conversely, climate change and wood removals above 5% of the standing volume led to a loss of tree microhabitats. A diversified set of management regimes with different harvesting intensities applied in a landscape scale was required to balance this trade-off. For example, to maximize the expected bird abundance (up to 11%) and to avoid tree microhabitat abundance loss of >20% necessitates setting aside 10.2% of the forest area aside and application of harvesting intensities < 10.4% of the standing volume. We conclude that promoting forest structural complexity by diversifying management regimes across the landscape will be key to maintain forest biodiversity in temperate forests under climate change.

Landscape trajectory of natural boreal forest loss as an impediment to green infrastructure

Loss of natural forests by forest clearcutting has been identified as a critical conservation challenge worldwide. This study addressed forest fragmentation and loss in the context of the establishment of a functional green infrastructure as a spatiotemporally connected landscape-scale network of habitats enhancing biodiversity, favorable conservation status, and ecosystem services. Through retrospective analysis of satellite images, we assessed a 50- to 60-year spatiotemporal clearcutting impact trajectory on natural and near-natural boreal forests across a sizable and representative region from the Gulf of Bothnia to the Scandinavian Mountain Range in northern Fennoscandia. This period broadly covers the whole forest clearcutting period; thus, our approach and results can be applied to comprehensive impact assessment of industrial forest management. The entire study region covers close to 46,000 km² of forest-dominated landscape in a late phase of transition from a natural or near-natural to a land-use modified state. We found a substantial loss of intact forest, in particular of large, contiguous areas, a spatial polarization of remaining forest on regional scale where the inland has been more severely affected than the mountain and coastal zones, and a pronounced impact on interior forest core areas. Salient results were a decrease in area of the largest intact forest patch from 225,853 to 68,714 ha in the mountain zone and from 257,715 to 38,668 ha in the foothills zone, a decrease from 75% to 38% intact forest in the inland zones, a decrease in largest patch core area (assessed by considering 100-m patch edge disturbance) from 6114 to 351 ha in the coastal zone, and a geographic imbalance in protected forest with an evident predominance in the mountain zone. These results demonstrate profound disturbance of configuration of the natural forest landscape and disrupted connectivity, which challenges the establishment of functional green infrastructure. Our approach supports the identification of forests for expanded protection and conservation-oriented forest landscape restoration.

Geotechnology in the analysis of forest fragments in northern Mato Grosso, Brazil

Pasture implantation fragments and reduces the Amazonian forest area. The objective was to quantify landscape changes in 1985, 2000 and 2015 in northern Mato Grosso, Brazil. The study was carried out in three scenes obtained by the LANDSAT satellite of a microbasin (2742.33 ha) in the municipality of Alta Floresta. Forest, water bodies, pasture and exposed soil were the thematic classes determined to e mapping the land use evolution. The edge, density and shape indexes of the fragments were measured. Normalized vegetation difference (NDVI) values were high in 1985. Land use and occupation over 15 years (1985-2000) reduced forest cover by 69.8%, but it increased by 1.7% over the next 15 years (2000-2015). The number of exposed soil patches increased between the periods, but the total area and number of the patches of the forest fragments decreased. The high values of NDVI in 1985 showed vegetated areas with high density. Reducing forest cover decreases the size of the fragments, increases the isolation and the number of soil patches exposed. The mapping of land use showed a reduction of the Amazon forest in the microbasin in the north of Mato Grosso, in the years 2000 and 2015 compared to 1985.

Impacts of forestry on boreal forests: An ecosystem services perspective

Forests are widely recognized as major providers of ecosystem services, including timber, other forest products, recreation, regulation of water, soil and air quality, and climate change mitigation. Extensive tracts of boreal forests are actively managed for timber production, but actions aimed at increasing timber yields also affect other forest functions and services. Here, we present an overview of the environmental impacts of forest management from the perspective of ecosystem services. We show how prevailing forestry practices may have substantial but diverse effects on the various ecosystem services provided by boreal forests. Several aspects of these processes remain poorly known and warrant a greater role in future studies, including the role of community structure. Conflicts among different interests related to boreal forests are most likely to occur, but the concept of ecosystem services may provide a useful framework for identifying and resolving these conflicts.

Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change

Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.

Local epiphyte establishment and future metapopulation dynamics in landscapes with different spatiotemporal properties

Understanding the relative importance of different ecological processes on the metapopulation dynamics of species is the basis for accurately forecasting metapopulation size in fragmented landscapes. Successful local colonization depends on both species dispersal range and how local habitat conditions affect establishment success. Moreover, there is limited understanding of the effects of different spatiotemporal landscape properties on future metapopulation size. We investigate which factors drive the future metapopulation size of the epiphytic model lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria in a managed forest landscape. First, we test the importance of dispersal and local conditions on the colonization-extinction dynamics of the species using Bayesian state-space modelling of a large-scale data set collected over a 10-yr period. Second, we test the importance of dispersal and establishment limitation in explaining establishment probability and subsequent local population growth, based on a 10-yr propagule sowing experiment. Third, we test how future metapopulation size is affected by different metapopulation and spatiotemporal landscape dynamics, using simulations with the metapopulation models fitted to the empirical data. The colonization probability increased with tree inclination and connectivity, with a mean dispersal distance of 97 m (95% credible intervals, 5-530 m). Local extinctions were mainly deterministic set by tree mortality, but also by tree cutting by forestry. No experimental establishments took place on clearcuts, and in closed forest the establishment probability was higher on trees growing on moist than on dry-mesic soils. The subsequent local population growth rate increased with increasing bark roughness. The simulations showed that the restricted dispersal range estimated (compared to non-restricted dispersal range), and short tree rotation length (65 yr instead of 120) had approximately the same negative effects on future metapopulation size, while regeneration of trees creating a random tree pattern instead of an aggregated one had only some negative effect. However, using the colonization rate obtained with the experimentally added diaspores led to a considerable increase in metapopulation size, making the dispersal limitation of the species clear. The future metapopulation size is thus set by the number of host trees located in shady conditions, not isolated from occupied trees, and by the rotation length of these host trees.

Socio-ecological implications of modifying rotation lengths in forestry

The rotation length is a key component of even-aged forest management systems. Using Fennoscandian forestry as a case, we review the socio-ecological implications of modifying rotation lengths relative to current practice by evaluating effects on a range of ecosystem services and on biodiversity conservation. The effects of shortening rotations on provisioning services are expected to be mostly negative to neutral (e.g. production of wood, bilberries, reindeer forage), while those of extending rotations would be more varied. Shortening rotations may help limit damage by some of today's major damaging agents (e.g. root rot, cambium-feeding insects), but may also increase other damage types (e.g. regeneration pests) and impede climate mitigation. Supporting (water, soil nutrients) and cultural (aesthetics, cultural heritage) ecosystem services would generally be affected negatively by shortened rotations and positively by extended rotations, as would most biodiversity indicators. Several effect modifiers, such as changes to thinning regimes, could alter these patterns.

What Data to Use for Forest Conservation Planning? A Comparison of Coarse Open and Detailed Proprietary Forest Inventory Data in Finland

The boreal region is facing intensifying resource extraction pressure, but the lack of comprehensive biodiversity data makes operative forest conservation planning difficult. Many countries have implemented forest inventory schemes and are making extensive and up-to-date forest databases increasingly available. Some of the more detailed inventory databases, however, remain proprietary and unavailable for conservation planning. Here, we investigate how well different open and proprietary forest inventory data sets suit the purpose of conservation prioritization in Finland. We also explore how much priorities are affected by using the less accurate but open data. First, we construct a set of indices for forest conservation value based on quantitative information commonly found in forest inventories. These include the maturity of the trees, tree species composition, and site fertility. Secondly, using these data and accounting for connectivity between forest types, we investigate the patterns in conservation priority. For prioritization, we use Zonation, a method and software for spatial conservation prioritization. We then validate the prioritizations by comparing them to known areas of high conservation value. We show that the overall priority patterns are relatively consistent across different data sources and analysis options. However, the coarse data cannot be used to accurately identify the high-priority areas as it misses much of the fine-scale variation in forest structures. We conclude that, while inventory data collected for forestry purposes may be useful for forest conservation purposes, it needs to be detailed enough to be able to account for more fine-scaled features of high conservation value. These results underline the importance of making detailed inventory data publicly available. Finally, we discuss how the prioritization methodology we used could be integrated into operative forest management, especially in countries in the boreal zone.

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.