Confounding of the association between radiation exposure from CT scans and risk of leukemia and brain tumors by cancer susceptibility syndromes

Risk of Cerebrovascular Events Among Childhood and Adolescent Patients Receiving Cranial Radiation Therapy: A PENTEC Normal Tissue Outcomes Comprehensive Review

PURPOSE

Radiation-induced cerebrovascular toxicity is a well-documented sequelae that can be both life-altering and potentially fatal. We performed a meta-analysis of the relevant literature to create practical models for predicting the risk of cerebral vasculopathy after cranial irradiation.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A literature search was performed for studies reporting pediatric radiation therapy (RT) associated cerebral vasculopathy. When available, we used individual patient RT doses delivered to the Circle of Willis (CW) or optic chiasm (as a surrogate), as reported or digitized from original publications, to formulate a dose-response. A logistic fit and a Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) model was developed to predict future risk of cerebrovascular toxicity and stroke, respectively. This NTCP risk was assessed as a function of prescribed dose.

RESULTS

The search identified 766 abstracts, 5 of which were used for modeling. We identified 101 of 3989 pediatric patients who experienced at least one cerebrovascular toxicity: transient ischemic attack, stroke, moyamoya, or arteriopathy. For a range of shorter follow-ups, as specified in the original publications (approximate attained ages of 17 years), our logistic fit model predicted the incidence of any cerebrovascular toxicity as a function of dose to the CW, or surrogate structure: 0.2% at 30 Gy, 1.3% at 45 Gy, and 4.4% at 54 Gy. At an attained age of 35 years, our NTCP model predicted a stroke incidence of 0.9% to 1.3%, 1.8% to 2.7%, and 2.8% to 4.1%, respectively at prescribed doses of 30 Gy, 45 Gy, and 54 Gy (compared with a baseline risk of 0.2%-0.3%). At an attained age of 45 years, the predicted incidence of stroke was 2.1% to 4.2%, 4.5% to 8.6%, and 6.7% to 13.0%, respectively at prescribed doses of 30 Gy, 45 Gy, and 54 Gy (compared with a baseline risk of 0.5%-1.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of cerebrovascular toxicity continues to increase with longer follow-up. NTCP stroke predictions are very sensitive to model variables (baseline stroke risk and proportional stroke hazard), both of which found in the literature may be systematically erring on minimization of true risk. We hope this information will assist practitioners in counseling, screening, surveilling, and facilitating risk reduction of RT-related cerebrovascular late effects in this highly sensitive population.

Finite-Sample Bias of the Linear Excess Relative Risk in Cohort Studies of Computed Tomography-Related Radiation Exposure and Cancer

The linear excess relative risk (ERR) is the most commonly reported measure of association in radiation epidemiological studies, when individual dose estimates are available. While the asymptotic properties of the ERR estimator are well understood, there is evidence of small sample bias in case-control studies of treatment-related radiation exposure and second cancer risk. Cohort studies of cancer risk after exposure to low doses of radiation from diagnostic procedures, e.g., computed tomography (CT) examinations, typically have small numbers of cases and risks are small. Therefore, understanding the properties of the estimated ERR is essential for interpretation and analysis of such studies. We present results of a simulation study that evaluates the finite-sample bias of the ERR estimated by time-to-event analyses and its confidence interval using simulated data, resembling a retrospective cohort study of radiation-related leukemia risk after CT examinations in childhood and adolescence. Furthermore, we evaluate how the Firth-corrected estimator reduces the finite-sample bias of the classical estimator. We show that the ERR is overestimated by about 30% for a cohort of about 150,000 individuals, with 42 leukemia cases observed on average. The bias is reduced for higher baseline incidence rates and for higher values of the true ERR. As the number of cases increases, the ERR is approximately unbiased. The Firth correction reduces the bias for all cohort sizes to generally around or under 5%. Epidemiological studies showing an association between radiation exposure from pediatric CT and cancer risk, unless very large, may overestimate the magnitude of the relationship, while there is no evidence of an increased chance for false-positive results. Conducting large studies, perhaps by pooling individual studies to increase the number of cases, should be a priority. If this is not possible, Firth correction should be applied to reduce small-sample bias.

Risk of hematological malignancies from CT radiation exposure in children, adolescents and young adults

Over one million European children undergo computed tomography (CT) scans annually. Although moderate- to high-dose ionizing radiation exposure is an established risk factor for hematological malignancies, risks at CT examination dose levels remain uncertain. Here we followed up a multinational cohort (EPI-CT) of 948,174 individuals who underwent CT examinations before age 22 years in nine European countries. Radiation doses to the active bone marrow were estimated on the basis of body part scanned, patient characteristics, time period and inferred CT technical parameters. We found an association between cumulative dose and risk of all hematological malignancies, with an excess relative risk of 1.96 (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 3.12) per 100 mGy (790 cases). Similar estimates were obtained for lymphoid and myeloid malignancies. Results suggest that for every 10,000 children examined today (mean dose 8 mGy), 1-2 persons are expected to develop a hematological malignancy attributable to radiation exposure in the subsequent 12 years. Our results strengthen the body of evidence of increased cancer risk at low radiation doses and highlight the need for continued justification of pediatric CT examinations and optimization of doses.

Medical imaging utilization and associated radiation exposure in children with down syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the frequency of medical imaging or estimated associated radiation exposure in children with Down syndrome.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 4,348,226 children enrolled in six U.S. integrated healthcare systems from 1996-2016, 3,095 of whom were diagnosed with Down syndrome. We calculated imaging rates per 100 person years and associated red bone marrow dose (mGy). Relative rates (RR) of imaging in children with versus without Down syndrome were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Compared to other children, children with Down syndrome received imaging using ionizing radiation at 9.5 times (95% confidence interval[CI] = 8.2-10.9) the rate when age <1 year and 2.3 times (95% CI = 2.0-2.5) between ages 1-18 years. Imaging rates by modality in children <1 year with Down syndrome compared with other children were: computed tomography (6.6 vs. 2.0, RR = 3.1[95%CI = 1.8-5.1]), fluoroscopy (37.1 vs. 3.1, RR 11.9[95%CI 9.5-14.8]), angiography (7.6 vs. 0.2, RR = 35.8[95%CI = 20.6-62.2]), nuclear medicine (6.0 vs. 0.6, RR = 8.2[95% CI = 5.3-12.7]), radiography (419.7 vs. 36.9, RR = 11.3[95%CI = 10.0-12.9], magnetic resonance imaging(7.3 vs. 1.5, RR = 4.2[95% CI = 3.1-5.8]), and ultrasound (231.2 vs. 16.4, RR = 12.6[95% CI = 9.9-15.9]). Mean cumulative red bone marrow dose from imaging over a mean of 4.2 years was 2-fold higher in children with Down syndrome compared with other children (4.7 vs. 1.9mGy).

CONCLUSIONS

Children with Down syndrome experienced more medical imaging and higher radiation exposure than other children, especially at young ages when they are more vulnerable to radiation. Clinicians should consider incorporating strategic management decisions when imaging this high-risk population.

Lympho-hematopoietic malignancies risk after exposure to low dose ionizing radiation during cardiac catheterization in childhood

Pediatric patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) often undergo low dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) from cardiac catheterization (CC) for the diagnosis and/or treatment of their disease. Although radiation doses from a single CC are usually low, less is known about the long-term radiation associated cancer risks. We aimed to assess the risk of lympho-hematopoietic malignancies in pediatric CHD patients diagnosed or treated with CC. A French cohort of 17,104 children free of cancer who had undergone a first CC from 01/01/2000 to 31/12/2013, before the age of 16 was set up. The follow-up started at the date of the first recorded CC until the exit date, i.e., the date of death, the date of first cancer diagnosis, the date of the 18th birthday, or the 31/12/2015, whichever occurred first. Poisson regression was used to estimate the LDIR associated cancer risk. The median follow-up was 5.9 years, with 110,335 person-years. There were 22,227 CC procedures, yielding an individual active bone marrow (ABM) mean cumulative dose of 3.0 milligray (mGy). Thirty-eight incident lympho-hematopoietic malignancies were observed. When adjusting for attained age, gender and predisposing factors to cancer status, no increased risk was observed for lympho-hematopoietic malignancies RR/mGy = 1.00 (95% CI: 0.88; 1.10). In summary, the risk of lympho-hematopoietic malignancies and lymphoma was not associated to LDIR in pediatric patients with CHD who undergo CC. Further epidemiological studies with greater statistical power are needed to improve the assessment of the dose-risk relationship.

Quantitative Analysis of the Clinical Reasons Influencing the Frequency of Pediatric Head CT Examinations: A Single-Center Observation Study

Epidemiological studies on radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans have attracted attention in terms of radiological protection. These studies have not taken into account the reasons why CT examinations were performed. It is presumed that there are clinical reasons that justify more frequent CT examinations in children. The purpose of this study was to characterize the clinical reasons why relatively high numbers of head CT examinations (NHCT) are frequently performed and to conduct a statistical analysis to determine the factors governing the NHCT. Patient information, the date of examination, and medical conditions for examination data stored on the radiology information system were used to investigate the reasons for undergoing CT examinations. The target facility was National Children's Hospital; data were obtained from March 2002 to April 2017, and the age of the study population was less than 16 years old. Quantitative analysis of the factors associated with frequent examinations was conducted by Poisson regression analysis. Among all patients who had a CT scan, 76.6% had head CT examinations, and 43.4% of children were under 1 year old at the time of the initial examination. There were marked differences in the number of examinations depending on the disease. The average NHCT was higher for children younger than 5 days of age. Among children less than 1 year of age with surgery, there was a marked difference between hydrocephalus, with a mean = 15.5 (95% CI 14.3,16.8), and trauma, with a mean = 8.3 (95% CI 7.2,9.4). In conclusion, this study revealed that NHCT was significantly higher in children who had undergone surgery than in those who had not been to the hospital. The clinical reasons behind patients with higher NHCT should be considered in investigating a causal relationship between CT exposure and brain tumors.

Brain cancer after radiation exposure from CT examinations of children and young adults: results from the EPI-CT cohort study

BACKGROUND

The European EPI-CT study aims to quantify cancer risks from CT examinations of children and young adults. Here, we assess the risk of brain cancer.

METHODS

We pooled data from nine European countries for this cohort study. Eligible participants had at least one CT examination before age 22 years documented between 1977 and 2014, had no previous diagnosis of cancer or benign brain tumour, and were alive and cancer-free at least 5 years after the first CT. Participants were identified through the Radiology Information System in 276 hospitals. Participants were linked with national or regional registries of cancer and vital status, and eligible cases were patients with brain cancers according to WHO International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. Gliomas were analysed separately to all brain cancers. Organ doses were reconstructed using historical machine settings and a large sample of CT images. Excess relative risks (ERRs) of brain cancer per 100 mGy of cumulative brain dose were calculated with linear dose-response modelling. The outcome was the first reported diagnosis of brain cancer after an exclusion period of 5 years after the first electronically recorded CT examination.

FINDINGS

We identified 948 174 individuals, of whom 658 752 (69%) were eligible for our study. 368 721 (56%) of 658 752 participants were male and 290 031 (44%) were female. During a median follow-up of 5·6 years (IQR 2·4-10·1), 165 brain cancers occurred, including 121 (73%) gliomas. Mean cumulative brain dose, lagged by 5 years, was 47·4 mGy (SD 60·9) among all individuals and 76·0 mGy (100·1) among people with brain cancer. A significant linear dose-response relationship was observed for all brain cancers (ERR per 100 mGy 1·27 [95% CI 0·51-2·69]) and for gliomas separately (ERR per 100 mGy 1·11 [0·36-2·59]). Results were robust when the start of follow-up was delayed beyond 5 years and when participants with possibly previously unreported cancers were excluded.

INTERPRETATION

The observed significant dose-response relationship between CT-related radiation exposure and brain cancer in this large, multicentre study with individual dose evaluation emphasises careful justification of paediatric CTs and use of doses as low as reasonably possible.

FUNDING

EU FP7; Belgian Cancer Registry; La Ligue contre le Cancer, L'Institut National du Cancer, France; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; Worldwide Cancer Research; Dutch Cancer Society; Research Council of Norway; Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; US National Cancer Institute; UK National Institute for Health Research; Public Health England.

Childhood cancer risks estimates following CT scans: an update of the French CT cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Increased risks of central nervous system (CNS) tumors and leukemia associated with computed tomography (CT) exposure during childhood have been reported in recent epidemiological studies. However, no evidence of increased risks was suggested in a previous analysis of the French CT cohort. This study benefits from an updated cohort with a longer follow-up and a larger sample size of patients.

METHODS

The patients were followed from the date of their first CT (between 2000 and 2011) until their date of cohort exit defined as the earliest among the following: 31 December 2016, date of death, date of first cancer diagnosis or date of their 18^th birthday. Cancer incidence, vital status, cancer predisposing factors (PFs), and additional CT scans were collected via external national databases. Hazard ratios (HRs) associated to cumulative organ doses and sex were estimated from Cox models.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, mean cumulative doses were 27.7 and 10.3 mGy for the brain and the red bone marrow (RBM), respectively. In patients without PFs, an HR per 10 mGy of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.09) for CNS tumors, 1.17 (95% CI: 1.09-1.26) for leukemia, and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.63-1.45) for lymphoma was estimated. These estimates were not modified by the inclusion of CT scans performed outside the participating hospitals or after the inclusion period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows statistically significant dose-response relationships for CNS tumors and leukemia for patients without PFs.

KEY POINTS

• Computed tomography is the most important contributor to the collective dose for diagnostic imaging to the French population. • Concerns have been raised about possible cancer risks, particularly after exposure to CT in childhood, due to the greater radiation sensitivity of children and to their longer life expectancy. • Analysis of the updated French CT cohort shows statistically significant dose-response relationships for CNS tumors and leukemia.

Epidemiological studies of CT scans and cancer risk: the state of the science

20 years ago, 3 manuscripts describing doses and potential cancer risks from CT scans in children raised awareness of a growing public health problem. We reviewed the epidemiological studies that were initiated in response to these concerns that assessed cancer risks from CT scans using medical record linkage. We evaluated the study methodology and findings and provide recommendations for optimal study design for new efforts. We identified 17 eligible studies; 13 with published risk estimates, and 4 in progress. There was wide variability in the study methodology, however, which made comparison of findings challenging. Key differences included whether the study focused on childhood or adulthood exposure, radiosensitive outcomes (e.g. leukemia, brain tumors) or all cancers, the exposure metrics (e.g. organ doses, effective dose or number of CTs) and control for biases (e.g. latency and exclusion periods and confounding by indication). We were able to compare results for the subset of studies that evaluated leukemia or brain tumors. There were eight studies of leukemia risk in relation to red bone marrow (RBM) dose, effective dose or number of CTs; seven reported a positive dose-response, which was statistically significant (p < 0.05) in four studies. Six of the seven studies of brain tumors also found a positive dose-response and in five, this was statistically significant. Mean RBM dose ranged from 6 to 12 mGy and mean brain dose from 18 to 43 mGy. In a meta-analysis of the studies of childhood exposure the summary ERR/100 mGy was 1.78 (95%CI: 0.01-3.53) for leukemia/myelodisplastic syndrome (n = 5 studies) and 0.80 (95%CI: 0.48-1.12) for brain tumors (n = 4 studies) (p-heterogeneity >0.4). Confounding by cancer pre-disposing conditions was unlikely in these five studies of leukemia. The summary risk estimate for brain tumors could be over estimated, however, due to reverse causation. In conclusion, there is growing evidence from epidemiological data that CT scans can cause cancer. The absolute risks to individual patients are, however, likely to be small. Ongoing large multicenter cohorts and future pooling efforts will provide more precise risk quantification.

Prenatal X-ray Exposure and the Risk of Developing Pediatric Cancer-A Systematic Review of Risk Markers and a Comparison of International Guidelines

ABSTRACT

Since the first Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancer's results were published, people have become more aware of the risks associated with prenatal exposure from diagnostic x rays. As a result, it has since been the subject of many studies. In this review, the results of recent epidemiological studies are summarized. The current international guidelines for diagnostic x-ray examinations were compared to the review. All epidemiological studies starting from 2007 and all relevant international guidelines were included. Apart from one study that involved rhabdomyosarcoma, no statistically significant associations were found between prenatal exposure to x rays and the development of cancer during 2007-2020. Most of the studies were constrained in their design due to too small a cohort or number of cases, minimal x-ray exposure, and/or data obtained from the exposed mothers instead of medical reports. In one of the studies, computed tomography exposure was also included, and this requires more and longer follow-up in successive studies. Most international guidelines are comparable, provide risk coefficients that are quite conservative, and discourage abdominal examinations of pregnant women.

Leukemia Risk in a Cohort of 3.9 Million Children with and without Down Syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To assess leukemia risks among children with Down syndrome in a large, contemporary cohort.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study including 3 905 399 children born 1996-2016 in 7 US healthcare systems or Ontario, Canada, and followed from birth to cancer diagnosis, death, age 15 years, disenrollment, or December 30, 2016. Down syndrome was identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions, diagnosis codes. Cancer diagnoses were identified through linkages to tumor registries. Incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) of leukemia were estimated for children with Down syndrome and other children adjusting for health system, child's age at diagnosis, birth year, and sex.

RESULTS

Leukemia was diagnosed in 124 of 4401 children with Down syndrome and 1941 of 3 900 998 other children. In children with Down syndrome, the cumulative incidence of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was 1405/100 000 (95% CI 1076-1806) at age 4 years and unchanged at age 14 years. The cumulative incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia in children with Down syndrome was 1059/100 000 (95% CI 755-1451) at age 4 and 1714/100 000 (95% CI 1264-2276) at age 14 years. Children with Down syndrome had a greater risk of AML before age 5 years than other children (HR 399, 95% CI 281-566). Largest HRs were for megakaryoblastic leukemia before age 5 years (HR 1500, 95% CI 555-4070). Children with Down syndrome had a greater risk of acute lymphoid leukemia than other children regardless of age (<5 years: HR 28, 95% CI 20-40, ≥5 years HR 21, 95% CI 12-38).

CONCLUSIONS

Down syndrome remains a strong risk factor for childhood leukemia, and associations with AML are stronger than previously reported.

A review of the types of childhood cancer associated with a medical X-ray examination of the pregnant mother

PURPOSE

For 65 years the interpretation of the statistical association between the risk of cancer in a child and a prior diagnostic X-ray examination of the abdomen of the pregnant mother has been debated. The objections to a direct cause-and-effect explanation of the association vary in their strength, but one of the most notable grounds for controversy is the finding from the first and largest case-control study reporting the association, the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers (OSCC), of an almost uniformly raised relative risk (RR) for nearly all of the types of cancer that are most frequent in children. Here we compare the antenatal X-ray associations found in the OSCC for different types of childhood cancer with the results of all other case-control and case-cohort studies appropriately combined in meta-analyses, and we also review the findings of the few cohort studies that have been conducted.

CONCLUSIONS

From the case-control/case-cohort studies other than the OSCC there are consistent and clear elevations of risk for all types of childhood cancer combined, all leukemia, and all cancers except leukemia combined. This compatibility of the findings of the OSCC with those of the combined other studies is less clear, or effectively absent, when some categories containing smaller numbers of incident cases/deaths are considered, but lack of precision of risk estimates due to sparse data presents inferential challenges, although there is a consistent absence of an association for bone tumors. Further, more recent studies almost certainly address lower intrauterine doses, with an anticipated decrease in estimated risks, which could be misleading when comparisons involve a limited number of studies that are mainly from later years, and a similar problem arises when having to employ all types of antenatal X-ray exposures for a study because data for abdominal exposures are absent. The problem of low statistical power is greater for cohort studies, and this, together with other shortcomings identified in the studies, limits the interpretational value of results. The findings of non-medical intrauterine exposure studies are constrained by sparse data and make a limited contribution to an understanding of the association. Certain aspects of the various studies require a need for caution in interpretation, but overall, the appropriate combination of all case-control/case-cohort studies other than the OSCC lends support to the inference that low-level exposure to radiation in utero proportionally increases the risk of the typical cancers of childhood to around the same level.

Computed tomography of the head and the risk of brain tumours during childhood and adolescence: results from a case-control study in Japan

To clarify whether medical radiation exposure, especially from head computed tomography (CT), increases the risk of brain tumours in young patients in Japan, which ranks the second highest in the world in the number of paediatric CT examinations following the US. From 2011 to 2015, we performed a case-control study of 120 brain tumour patients and 360 appendicitis patients as controls. Reasons, the number of brain and head CT scans date were available from interviews. A cumulative radiation dose to the brain was calculated as a sum of doses received from head CT scans and from conventional X-rays and estimated using a reference table derived from a literature review of published studies. We performed conditional logistic regression to assess the risk of brain tumours from brain and head CT, and from conventional head X-ray procedures. The case group received on average 1.8 CTs to the brain area and 2.2 CTs to the whole head, with a mean estimated brain dose of 32 ±13 mGy. The odds ratio for developing a brain tumour from having a brain CT was 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.38-1.82). This was hardly altered when adjusting for parental educational history and for other diseases (history of neurological disease and attention-deficit disorder/attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder). Neither whole head CT nor cumulative brain dose to the brain increased the risk of glioma or of all brain tumours. Although this study conducted in Japan, where ranks second in the number of CT scans conducted in the world, did not show an increased risk of brain tumours related to CT scans, it should be taken with caution due to a case-control study with limited sample size.

Evaluation of Confounding and Selection Bias in Epidemiological Studies of Populations Exposed to Low-Dose, High-Energy Photon Radiation

BACKGROUND

Low-dose, penetrating photon radiation exposure is ubiquitous, yet our understanding of cancer risk at low doses and dose rates derives mainly from high-dose studies. Although a large number of low-dose cancer studies have been recently published, concern exists about the potential for confounding to distort findings. The aim of this study was to describe and assess the likely impact of confounding and selection bias within the context of a systematic review.

METHODS

We summarized confounding control methods for 26 studies published from 2006 to 2017 by exposure setting (environmental, medical, or occupational) and identified confounders of potential concern. We used information from these and related studies to assess evidence for confounding and selection bias. For factors in which direct or indirect evidence of confounding was lacking for certain studies, we used a theoretical adjustment to determine whether uncontrolled confounding was likely to have affected the results.

RESULTS

For medical studies of childhood cancers, confounding by indication (CBI) was the main concern. Lifestyle-related factors were of primary concern for environmental and medical studies of adult cancers and for occupational studies. For occupational studies, other workplace exposures and healthy worker survivor bias were additionally of interest. For most of these factors, however, review of the direct and indirect evidence suggested that confounding was minimal. One study showed evidence of selection bias, and three occupational studies did not adjust for lifestyle or healthy worker survivor bias correlates. Theoretical adjustment for three factors (smoking and asbestos in occupational studies and CBI in childhood cancer studies) demonstrated that these were unlikely to explain positive study findings due to the rarity of exposure (eg, CBI) or the relatively weak association with the outcome (eg, smoking or asbestos and all cancers).

CONCLUSION

Confounding and selection bias are unlikely to explain the findings from most low-dose radiation epidemiology studies.

Radiation risk of central nervous system tumors in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors, 1958-2009

Radiation exposure is among the few factors known to be associated with risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumors. However, the patterns of radiation risk by histological type, sex or age are unclear. We evaluated radiation risks of first primary glioma, meningioma, schwannoma, and other or not otherwise specified (other/NOS) tumors in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors. Cases diagnosed between 1958 and 2009 were ascertained through population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To estimate excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy), we fit rate models using Poisson regression methods. There were 285 CNS tumors (67 gliomas, 107 meningiomas, 49 schwannomas, and 64 other/NOS tumors) among 105,444 individuals with radiation dose estimates to the brain contributing 3.1 million person-years of observation. Based on a simple linear model without effect modification, ERR/Gy was 1.67 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.12 to 5.26) for glioma, 1.82 (95% CI: 0.51 to 4.30) for meningioma, 1.45 (95% CI: - 0.01 to 4.97) for schwannoma, and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.57) for all CNS tumors as a group. For each tumor type, the dose-response was consistent with linearity and appeared to be stronger among males than among females, particularly for meningioma (P = 0.045). There was also evidence that the ERR/Gy for schwannoma decreased with attained age (P = 0.002). More than 60 years after the bombings, radiation risks for CNS tumors continue to be elevated. Further follow-up is necessary to characterize the lifetime risks of specific CNS tumors following radiation exposure.

Radiation Exposure From Pediatric CT Scans and Subsequent Cancer Risk in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT), a strong diagnostic tool, delivers higher radiation doses than most imaging modalities. As CT use has increased rapidly, radiation protection is important, particularly among children. We evaluate leukemia and brain tumor risk following exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation from CT scans in childhood.

METHODS

For a nationwide retrospective cohort of 168 394 children who received one or more CT scans in a Dutch hospital between 1979 and 2012 who were younger than age 18 years, we obtained cancer incidence, vital status, and confounder information by record linkage with external registries. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated using cancer incidence rates from the general Dutch population. Excess relative risks (ERRs) per 100 mGy organ dose were calculated with Poisson regression. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Standardized incidence ratios were elevated for all cancer sites. Mean cumulative bone marrow doses were 9.5 mGy at the end of follow-up, and leukemia risk (excluding myelodysplastic syndrome) was not associated with cumulative bone marrow dose (44 cases). Cumulative brain dose was on average 38.5 mGy and was statistically significantly associated with risk for malignant and nonmalignant brain tumors combined (ERR/100 mGy: 0.86, 95% confidence interval = 0.20 to 2.22, P = .002, 84 cases). Excluding tuberous sclerosis complex patients did not substantially change the risk.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence that CT-related radiation exposure increases brain tumor risk. No association was observed for leukemia. Compared with the general population, incidence of brain tumors was higher in the cohort of children with CT scans, requiring cautious interpretation of the findings.

The Risk of Developing Secondary Central Nervous System Tumors After Diagnostic Irradiation From Computed Tomography in Pediatrics: A Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Advanced diagnostic imaging has provided tremendous benefits; however, increased use of ionizing radiation modalities such as cranial computed tomography (CT) may be associated with an increased risk of developing central nervous system tumors.

METHODS

A literature review identified studies published for more than the last 50 years from 1968 to 2018 that explored the association between head CT scans and developing central nervous system tumors in pediatrics. We reviewed seven studies that described and analyzed the risk of brain tumors.

RESULTS

A positive correlation between exposure to CT scans and developing central nervous system tumors was evident in all cohorts. The strength of the association varied across the studies. Exclusion of patients with predisposing factors to central nervous system tumors was examined in four studies with a decreased risk to develop central nervous system tumors noted in three studies. Two studies reported nonsignificant reduction in the excess relative risk per milliGray of brain dose after adjusting for predisposing factors, whereas the reduction was significant in one study. The frequency of CT exposure was proportional to the risk of developing tumors in two studies although not significantly maintained in two other studies. Gender had no significant effect on the central nervous system tumor risk. The calendar year at the time of imaging showed decreasing risk in those exposed to CT in more recent years compared with prior decades.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective epidemiologic studies are needed to examine the precise carcinogenic effect of exposure to ionizing radiation and help tailor further preventive measures.

Patient dose evaluation in computed tomography: A French national study based on clinical indications

PURPOSE

A national survey was performed to assess patient dose indicators based on clinical indication and on patient morphology for most common adult computed tomography (CT) examinations in France.

METHODS

Seventeen groups of clinical indications (GCIs) for diagnostic CT in adult patients were considered based on their frequency and on image quality requirements. Data was collected for 15-30 consecutive examinations performed between 2015 and 2017, per CT scanner and GCI. Distributions of total examination Dose-Length Product (DLP) and Volume CT Dose Index (CTDI_vol) were assessed for each GCI as a function of patient gender or patient Body Mass Index (BMI) for head/neck and trunk examinations, respectively.

RESULTS

6610 examinations were analysed. Median total exam DLP values were higher for men compared to women patients for head and neck examinations: difference ranged from 6% for ear trauma indication (577 vs 543 mGy·cm, p = 0.01) to 35% for brain tumour GCI (1472 vs 1093 mGy·cm, p < 0.01). For trunk examinations, total exam DLP increased consistently with patient's BMI. For normal-BMI patients, median CTDI_vol and DLP differed significantly between different GCIs for single-phase CT of the chest (3 mGy and 112 mGy·cm, respectively, for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease group vs 5.8 mGy and 207 mGy·cm for pulmonary embolism group, p < 0.05) and of the abdomen-pelvis (5.6 mGy and 284 mGy·cm, respectively, in renal colic group vs 9.5 mGy and 463 mGy·cm in occlusive syndrome group, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study provides morphological- and clinical-based patient dose indicators in CT as a practical tool for clinical practices optimisation.

Indirect adjustment of relative risks of an exposure with multiple categories for an unmeasured confounder

PURPOSE

With observational epidemiologic studies, there is often concern that an unmeasured variable might confound an observed association. Investigators can assess the impact from such unmeasured variables on an observed relative risk (RR) by utilizing externally sourced information and applying an indirect adjustment procedure, for example, the "Axelson adjustment." Although simple and easy to use, this approach applies to exposure and confounder variables that are binary. Other approaches eschew specific values and provide only bounds on the potential bias.

METHODS

For both multiplicative and additive RR models, we present formulae for indirect adjustment of observed RRs for unmeasured potential confounding variables when there are multiple categories. In addition, we suggest an alternative strategy to identify the characteristics that the confounder must have to explain fully the observed association.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

We provide examples involving studies of pediatric computer tomography scanning and leukemia and nuclear radiation workers and smoking to demonstrate that with externally sourced information, an investigator can assess whether confounding from unmeasured factors is likely to occur.

Is there Unmeasured Indication Bias in Radiation-Related Cancer Risk Estimates from Studies of Computed Tomography?

Recently reported studies have associated radiation exposure from computed tomography (CT) scanning with small excess cancer risks. However, since existing medical records were used in these studies, they could not control for reasons for the CT scans and therefore, the results may have been confounded by indication. Here we conducted a study to estimate potential indication bias that could affect hazard ratios for colorectal, lung and female breast cancers by reasons for a CT scan. This involved a retrospective cohort study of electronic records from all patients aged 18-89 years without previous cancer diagnoses, who received at least one CT scan at Columbia University Medical Center in the period of 1994-2014. This investigation is not a study of CT-related cancer risks with adjustment for reasons, but an evaluation of the potential for confounding by indication in such studies. Among 75,968 patients, 212,487 CT scans were analyzed during a mean follow-up of 7.6 years. For colorectal and female breast cancers, no hazard ratio bias estimates for any of the CT reasons reached statistical significance. For lung cancer, significant biases occurred only in patients with unknown CT reasons and in patients with CTs for "abnormal findings" and in those with CTs for cancer- or nodule-related reasons. This retrospective cohort study among adults with ≥1 CT scan evaluates, for the first time, CT reason-specific indication biases of potential CT-related cancer risks. Overall, our data suggest that, in studies of adults who underwent CT scans, indication bias is likely to be of negligible importance for colorectal cancer and female breast cancer risk estimation; for lung cancer, indication bias is possible but would likely be associated with only a small modulation of the risk estimate. Radiat. Res.