Atopic Dermatitis in Children Under 5: Prevalence Trends in Central, Eastern, and Western Europe

BACKGROUND

Atopic dermatitis is a major public health issue worldwide, but data on trends in prevalence in children in European countries are sparse. The aim of this study was to assess the trends in the prevalence of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 in the Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-regions from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

In this study, a descriptive, observational epidemiological method was applied. In addition, an ecological study design was used. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends.

RESULTS

A total of 118 million (54 million males and 64 million females) prevalent cases of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 were reported in European countries in 1990-2019. More than half of all cases of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 in Europe were recorded in the Western European sub-region. The highest prevalence rates of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 were observed in the Eastern European sub-region, with the highest rates in both males and females recorded in Estonia (equally at about 15,000 per 100,000), followed by the Russian Federation (equally at about 12,000 per 100,000). Moreover, the lowest prevalence rates were reported in the Eastern European sub-region (equally at about 5000 per 100,000 in Romania and Latvia). A sex disparity in the prevalence and trends of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 was observed. A significantly increased trend in atopic dermatitis prevalence in children under 5 was recorded in the Eastern European sub-region from 1990 to 2019 (by +0.3% per year in males and by +0.1% per year in females). Conversely, in the Western and Central European sub-regions, trends in the prevalence of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 slightly decreased (about -0.1% per year). The Pearson coefficient showed a significant negative correlation between the prevalence of atopic dermatitis in children under 5 and the Human Development Index in most countries in the Eastern European sub-region, while a significant positive correlation was reported between the prevalence and HDI in high-income countries in the Western European sub-region.

CONCLUSIONS

High prevalence rates and mostly stable trends during the last three decades make atopic dermatitis still a major health issue in children under 5 in European countries.

International patterns and trends in the brain cancer incidence and mortality: An observational study based on the global burden of disease

Background

Brain cancer is a serious issue in the global burden of diseases. This observational research aimed to assess trends of the brain cancer incidence and mortality in the world in the period 1990-2019.

Methods

Brain cancer incidence and mortality data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study database. The joinpoint regression analysis was done to assess the brain cancer indicence and mortality trends: the average annual percent change (AAPC) along with its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated.

Results

In both sexes, the highest age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality were found in high-income regions (Europe and America), while the lowest were observed in the African Region. A significant rise in brain cancer incidence rates both in males and females was observed in all regions, with one exception of a significantly decreased trend only among males in the South-East Asia Region. Among countries with increased trends in incidence and mortality from brain cancer, Cuba experienced the most marked increase in both incidence (AAPC = +5.7% in males and AAPC = +5.4% in females) and mortality rates (AAPC = +5.5% in males and AAPC = +5.1% in females). Among countries that experienced a decline in brain cancer incidence and mortality, Hungary and Greenland showed the most marked decline in both sexes (equally by -1.0%).

Conclusion

Brain cancer shows increasing global incidence rates in both sexes and represents a priority for prevention and further research.

International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease.

AIM

To estimate trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality worldwide in the last three decades.

METHODS

A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the database of the World Health Organization. Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality during 2020 was performed. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Additionally, analysis was performed by sex and age. In this paper, the trend analysis included only countries with high and medium data quality.

RESULTS

A total of 495773 (262865 male and 232908 female) new cases and 466003 (246840 male and 219163 female) deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported worldwide in 2020. In both sexes, most of the new cases (191348; 38.6% of the total) and deaths (182074; 39.1% of the total) occurred in the Western Pacific Region. In both sexes, the highest ASRs were found in the European Region, while the lowest rates were reported in the South-East Asia Region. The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide in observed period. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing incidence trends for pancreatic cancer were observed in some countries, but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4–12.5) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5–9.5). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in last three decades.

Worldwide suicide mortality trends by firearm (1990–2019): A joinpoint regression analysis

Introduction

Suicide by firearm is a major public health problem in many countries. But, studies that investigated the mortality of suicide by firearm on a global scale are still limited. The aim of this study was to assess the global, regional and national trends in mortality of suicide by firearm from 1990 to 2019.

Method

Mortality data of suicide by firearm was presented using the age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100,000). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends of mortality of suicide by firearm: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated.

Results

A total of 52,694 (45,110 male and 7584 female) deaths of suicide by firearm were reported worldwide in 2019. The global ASR of suicide by firearm was six-fold higher in males than in females (1.15 per 100,000 and 0.19 per 100,000, respectively), and varied greatly across countries: the highest rates were in Greenland (24.52 per 100,000 and 2.69 per 100,000, respectively) and the United States of America (10.13 per 100,000 and 1.66 per 100,000, respectively), while the lowest rates (0.05 per 100,000 or less) were observed in China, Japan and Singapore. Globally, the mortality of suicide by firearm had a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2019 in both sexes together (AAPC = -2.0% per year; 95%CI = -2.1 to -1.9).

Conclusion

Decreasing trends in mortality of suicide by firearm were observed in majority of countries across the world, but not in all. Future research should determine more effective ways to further reduce mortality of suicide by firearm.

Epidemiology of stomach cancer

Despite a decline in incidence and mortality during the last decades, stomach cancer is one of the main health challenges worldwide. According to the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates, stomach cancer caused approximately 800000 deaths (accounting for 7.7% of all cancer deaths), and ranks as the fourth leading cause of cancer deaths in both genders combined. About 1.1 million new cases of stomach cancer were diagnosed in 2020 (accounting for 5.6% of all cancer cases). About 75% of all new cases and all deaths from stomach cancer are reported in Asia. Stomach cancer is one of the most lethal malignant tumors, with a five-year survival rate of around 20%. There are some well-established risk factors for stomach cancer: Helicobacter pylori infection, dietary factors, tobacco, obesity, and radiation. To date, the most important way of preventing stomach cancer is reduced exposure to risk factors, as well as screening and early detection. Further research on risk factors can help identify various opportunities for more effective prevention. Screening programs for stomach cancer have been implemented in a few countries, either as a national or opportunistic screening of high-risk individuals only. Generally, due to its high aggressiveness and heterogeneity, stomach cancer still remains a severe global health problem.

Trends in suicide by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation in Serbia, 1991-2020: A joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Hanging is one of the most commonly used methods for suicide in both sexes worldwide. In a number of countries, hanging mortality has increased over the last decades. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies that have explored the patterns and trends for mortality of suicide by hanging on global, regional and national levels, as most evaluations are limited to certain populations.

AIM

To assess the trends of suicide mortality by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation in Serbia, from 1991 to 2020.

METHODS

This nationwide study, with epidemiological descriptive study design, was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000 persons) were calculated by direct standardization, using the World Standard Population. Mortality trends from suicide by hanging were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis: The average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to address the possible underlying reasons for the observed suicide trends.

RESULTS

Over the 30-year period studied, there were 24340 deaths by hanging (17750 males and 6590 females) in Serbia. In 2020, the ASR of deaths by hanging was 4.5 per 100000 persons in both sexes together (7.6 in males vs 1.7 in females). The trends of suicide mortality by hanging decreased significantly between 1991 and 2020 in both males (AAPC = -1.7% per year; 95%CI: -2.0 to -1.4) and females (AAPC = - 3.5% per year; 95%CI: -3.9 to -3.1). Mortality rates of suicide by hanging had a continuously decreasing tendency in both sexes together in all age groups: The only exception was among males in 40-49 age group, with an increasing trend of suicide by hanging from 1991 to 2011 (by +0.3% per year).

CONCLUSION

The trends in suicide mortality by hanging have been decreasing in Serbia in the last three decades in both sexes, but this was more pronounced in women than in men. Despite the decreasing trends observed in mortality of suicide by hanging, further research is needed for better clarification of trends and help in suicide prevention in the future.

High risk of burnout in medical students in Serbia, by gender: A cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Burnout syndrome is common among medical students, but findings about the gender differences in burnout are not consistent. The aim of this study was to assess high risk of burnout syndrome among medical students at one University in Serbia, by gender.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac in 2014. The Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey was used for assessment of burnout level. A questionnaire on basic socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender, marital status, habits, etc.) and academic performance (year of study, cumulative total average grade, length of study, housing, study financing, etc.) was used. The study included a total of 760 medical students (760/836 medical students; participation rate: 90.9%). Logistic regression analysis was used to determine odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Significant gender differences were detected in prevalence of high risk of burnout syndrome (male students- 19.0% vs. female students- 12.8%, p = 0.024). A significant independent predictor of high risk for burnout syndrome in male medical students was study year (p for trend = 0.011), while in female medical students-study year (p for trend = 0.002) and use of sedatives (adjusted OR = 5.74, 95% CI = 1.96-16.77, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate the need to assess the risk of burnout syndrome at the very beginning of medical studies, in order to more effectively control the modifiable risk factors.

Association between oral contraceptive use and pancreatic cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies on the association of oral contraceptive (OC) use and pancreatic cancer showed inconsistent findings.

AIM

To evaluate the relationship between OC use and pancreatic cancer risk.

METHODS

A literature search for observational studies (case-control and cohort studies) was conducted up to December 2020. A meta-analysis was performed by calculating pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran’s chi-square test and I² statistic. Subgroup analyses were performed by study design, source of controls in case-control studies, number of cases of pancreatic cancers, study quality according to Newcastle-Ottawa Scale score, geographical region and menopausal status. All analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3 (RevMan 5.3).

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies (10 case-control studies and 11 cohort studies) were finally included in the present meta-analysis, comprising 7700 cases of pancreatic cancer in total. A significant association was observed between the ever use of OC and pancreatic cancer risk in the overall analysis (RR = 0.85; 95%CI = 0.73-0.98; P = 0.03). Duration of OC use (< 1 year, < 5 years, 5-10 years, > 10 years) was not significantly associated with the risk of pancreatic cancer. Subgroup analyses revealed a statistically significant subgroup difference for the geographic region in which the study was conducted (Europe vs Americas vs Asia; P = 0.07). Subgroup analyses showed a statistically significant decrease in pancreatic cancer risk and OC use in high-quality studies, studies conducted in Europe, and in postmenopausal women.

CONCLUSION

Despite the suggested protective effects of OC use in this meta-analysis, further epidemiological studies are warranted to fully elucidate the association between the use of OC and pancreatic cancer risk.

Prevalence and correlates of low back pain among undergraduate medical students in Serbia, a cross-sectional study

Background

Low back pain (LBP) is a serious health problem among medical students. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors for LBP among Serbian medical students.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was performed among medical students at one University in Serbia. Data was collected by a self-reported questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with LBP; results from the analyses were expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

The study sample comprised 499 medical students, giving a response rate of 92.9%. The mean age of the participants was 22.0 ± 2.2 years (range 18–34). Overall, 20.8% (104/499) of medical students had LBP at the time of study. Cigarette smoking (OR = 2.5, 95% CI [1.5–4.2], p = 0.001), stress during classes (OR = 1.8, 95% CI [1.1–3.0], p = 0.039), incorrect sleeping position (OR = 1.9, 95% CI [1.2–3.1], p = 0.006) and family history of LBP (OR = 1.6, 95% CI [1.1–2.7], p = 0.047) were independently associated with high prevalence of LBP at the time of the study.

Conclusions

LBP is a highly prevalent health problem in medical students in Serbia. The association between LBP and cigarette smoking, stress during classes, incorrect sleeping position and LBP in family history has been observed in medical students.

Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Background and Objectives: Trends of liver cancer mortality vary widely around the world. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of liver cancer mortality in Serbia. Material and Methods: Descriptive epidemiological study design was used in this research. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the World standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), according to joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to evaluate the underlying factors for liver cancer mortality trends. Results: In Serbia from 1991 to 2015, over 11,000 men and nearly 8000 women died from liver cancer. The trend in liver cancer mortality significantly decreased both in men (AAPC = -1.3%; 95% CI = -1.7 to -0.9) and women (AAPC = -1.5%; 95% CI = -1.9 to -1.1). For liver cancer mortality, statistically significant cohort and period effects were observed in both genders. Conclusions: The downward trends in liver cancer mortality in Serbia are recorded during the past decades.

Psychometric Properties of the World Health Organization's Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BREF) Questionnaire in Medical Students

Background and Objectives: Studies on the effects of studying on a medical student’s quality of life are sparse. The World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BREF) questionnaire is a widely used scale that enables the assessment and international comparisons of the quality of life. The aim of this study was to evaluate psychometric properties of the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire among Serbian medical students. Material and Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study that involved 760 medical students at a state medical faculty at the University of Kragujevac, Serbia. The reliability of the WHOQOL-BREF was evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and test–retest analysis, and the validity was examined using principal component analysis, with Promax rotation method. Results: Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the whole WHOQOL-BREF scale was 0.896. Internal reliability for all domains was above 0.70, except for the domain “Social Relationships” (0.533). The test–retest reliability for all domains was significant at p < 0.01 level, showing good stability of the scale. Principal component analysis with Promax rotation method indicated four main components that explained 49.5% of variance. Conclusion: The Serbian version of the WHOQOL-BREF scale showed satisfactory psychometric properties that facilitate estimation of the quality of life of medical students.

Reliability and validity of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale in Serbian women with abnormal Papanicolaou smear results

OBJECTIVES

Cervical cancer ranks as the second most frequent cancer among women in Serbia. Organized screening for detection of cervical cancer was introduced in Serbia in 2013 and provided free of charge in all state health facilities. Studies have shown that depression frequently follows the notification of abnormal findings on the Papanicolaou (Pap) screening test. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale among women in Serbia receiving a report of abnormal cytology.

METHODS

This population-based study used cross-sectional, self-reported data involving 198 consecutive women attending cervical cancer screening who had received abnormal Pap smear results. All participants completed the socio-demographic questionnaire and CES-D scale. Reliability of the CES-D scale was assessed by internal consistency reliability (measured with standardized Cronbach's coefficient α). Exploratory factor analysis was done using Promax rotation.

RESULTS

The overall Cronbach's α coefficient of the CES-D scale was 0.865, while the Cronbach's α coefficients for the subscales Depressed affect, Somatic complaints, Positive affect, and Interpersonal relationship were 0.885, 0.802, 0.851, and 0.593, respectively. Principal component analysis with Oblimin rotation indicated four main components that explained 62.0% of variance. Over one-quarter (28.8%) of the participants scored above the cut point (≥16) on the CES-D scale. The mean score for depressive symptoms was 13.0 for the study sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The Serbian version of the CES-D scale proved to be a valid and reliable instrument for identifying patients with depressive symptoms among women with abnormal Pap smear results.

Trends in cerebrovascular diseases mortality in Serbia, 1997-2016: a nationwide descriptive study

OBJECTIVES

Over the last decades, mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) has decreased in many countries. The aim of this study was to assess the trends of CVDs mortality in Serbia.

METHODS

Descriptive epidemiological study. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) for CVDs mortality were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and estimate annual per cent changes with 95% CI. The age-period-cohort analysis has been used to describe variations in mortality.

RESULTS

Over this 20-year period, there were 312 847 deaths from CVDs, with the overall average annual ASR of 148.4 per 100 000. The trend of ASRs from CVDs mortality in males in Serbia showed a significant joinpoint: rates insignificantly decreased from 1997 to 2005 by -0.8% per year (95% CI -1.7% to 0.2%) and thereafter rapidly decreased by -5.0% per year (95% CI -5.6% to -4.5%). A joinpoint for females was found in 2006: the mortality trend was first significantly decreasing by -1.0% per year (95% CI -1.9% to -0.0%) and then sharply falling down by -6.0% per year (95% CI -6.8% to -5.3%). Results of age-period-cohort analysis indicated that the relative risk for CVDs mortality showed statistically significant (p<0.05) cohort and period effects, as well as the net drift and local drifts in Serbian population. The trends in mortality for all subtypes of CVDs were similar in both sexes: trends significantly decreased for most subtypes, with the exception of a significant increase for cerebral infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

After a decade of increase, CVDs mortality rates are declining in last decade in Serbia. However, mortality rates from CVDs remain exceedingly high in Serbia. Differences in mortality trends of the stroke subtypes should be taken into account in the creation of both prevention and treatment guidelines.

Myocardial infarction and alcohol consumption: A case-control study

Background

Although epidemiological evidence for the beneficial effect of low alcohol consumption on myocardial infarction is strong, the impact of heavy drinking episodes is less clear.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to investigate a possible association between the risk for acute myocardial infarction occurrence and alcohol consumption.

Methods

Our hospital-based case-control study comprised 374 participants (187 newly diagnosed patients with myocardial infarction and 187 controls, individually matched by gender, age, and place of residence). This study was performed in Kragujevac (a city in Serbia) during 2010. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

Results

The history of alcohol consumption in patients with acute myocardial infarction and their controls did not differ significantly: the percentage of those that were consuming alcohol was slightly higher in cases (54.5%) than in controls (50.3%). The habit of binge drinking during the previous 12 months was significantly more common in cases (25.1%) than in controls (12.8%): adjusted OR = 2.2 (95%CI = 1.2–4.2, p = 0.017), p for trend = 0.015. Analysis of binge drinking by age, gender and place of residence revealed that the increase in risk for acute myocardial infarction was associated with older age (adjusted OR = 5.1, 95%CI = 1.7–15.1, p for trend = 0.010), male gender (adjusted OR = 2.3, 95%CI = 1.1–5.2, p for trend = 0.028) and rural place of residence (adjusted OR = 4.8, 95%CI = 1.3–18.5, p for trend = 0.033).

Conclusion

Our results suggest that binge drinking is associated with twice the risk for myocardial infarction compared to not drinking. Since consumption of alcohol is very common in the Serbian population, the effect of binge drinking on myocardial infarction should be considered an important public health issue.

Cancer mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015: an age-period-cohort and joinpoint regression analysis

Background

As the result of dramatic political changes, civil wars, and a long-term refugee crisis from the end of the last to beginning of this century, the population of Serbia has experienced significant health problems. The aim of this study was to assess cancer mortality trends in Serbia.

Methods

This nationwide study was carried out to analyze cancer mortality in Serbia during 1991–2015 using official data. The age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the world standard population by Segi. The average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed using joinpoint regression analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to address the possible underlying reasons for the observed temporal trends.

Results

Over the 25-year study period, there were 466,075 cancer deaths (266,043 males and 200,032 females) in Serbia. Overall cancer mortality increased between 1991 and 2009 in both males (by + 0.9% per year) and females (by + 0.8% per year) and has been decreasing since then, by − 0.9% annually in both sexes. For almost all major cancers except stomach cancer, cancer mortality in Serbia demonstrated upward trends during the study period. The largest increases were noted in lung cancer among females (AAPC = + 3.7, 95% CI 3.5–3.9) and prostate cancer in males (AAPC = + 1.9, 95% CI 1.4–2.3).

Conclusions

After two decades of increase, cancer mortality rates are finally declining in Serbia. Despite this, these rates place Serbia among the countries with the highest cancer mortality in the world.

Diabetes mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015 (a nationwide study): A joinpoint regression analysis

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of diabetes mellitus in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohia).

METHODS

A population-based cross sectional study analyzing diabetes mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2015 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the European Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

More than 63,000 (about 27,000 of men and 36,000 of women) diabetes deaths occurred in Serbia from 1991 to 2015. Death rates from diabetes were almost equal in men and in women (about 24.0 per 100,000) and places Serbia among the countries with the highest diabetes mortality rates in Europe. Since 1991, mortality from diabetes in men significantly increased by +1.2% per year (95% CI 0.7-1.7), but non-significantly increased in women by +0.2% per year (95% CI -0.4 to 0.7). Increased trends in diabetes type 1 mortality rates were significant in both genders in Serbia. Trends in mortality for diabetes type 2 showed a significant decrease in both genders since 2010.

CONCLUSION

Given that diabetes mortality trends showed different patterns during the studied period, our results imply that further observation of trend is needed.

Epidemiology of pancreatic cancer

Cancer of the pancreas remains one of the deadliest cancer types. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2012 estimates, pancreatic cancer causes more than 331000 deaths per year, ranking as the seventh leading cause of cancer death in both sexes together. Globally, about 338000 people had pancreatic cancer in 2012, making it the 11th most common cancer. The highest incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer are found in developed countries. Trends for pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality varied considerably in the world. A known cause of pancreatic cancer is tobacco smoking. This risk factor is likely to explain some of the international variations and gender differences. The overall five-year survival rate is about 6% (ranges from 2% to 9%), but this vary very small between developed and developing countries. To date, the causes of pancreatic cancer are still insufficiently known, although certain risk factors have been identified, such as smoking, obesity, genetics, diabetes, diet, inactivity. There are no current screening recommendations for pancreatic cancer, so primary prevention is of utmost importance. A better understanding of the etiology and identifying the risk factors is essential for the primary prevention of this disease.

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis

Background

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening.

Methods

Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends.

Results

We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%–1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%–2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%–1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05).

Conclusions

We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Suicide in Serbia

BACKGROUND

Suicide remains a significant public health problem worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality trend of suicide in Serbia for the years 1991-2014.

METHODS

Data on persons who died of suicide and self-inflicted injury (site codes E950-E959 revision 9 and X60-X84 revision 10 of the International Classification of Diseases to classify death, injury and cause of death) were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. The age standardized rate was calculated by direct method (per 100,000 persons, using Segi's World population as standard population). Average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Total 33,930 (24,016 men and 9914 women) suicide deaths occurred in Serbia during the observed period, with the average annual age-standardized mortality rate being 12.7 per 100,000 inhabitants (19.5 per 100,000 in men and 6.7 per 100,000 in women). Suicide mortality in all age groups was higher among men than women. In both genders, suicide rates were highest in the oldest age group. Significantly decreased trend in suicide mortality was recorded continuously from 1991 to 2014 (AAPC=-1.9%, 95%CI -2.2 to -1.6). The most frequently used suicide method in both genders was hanging, strangulation or suffocation with 61.2% off all suicides. Changes in mortality rates were significant both for suicide by firearms, air guns and explosives (AAPC=-1.5% (AAPC=-1.5% in men and -3.1%-3.1% in women) and for suicide by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (AAPC=-1.2% (AAPC=-1.2% in men and -3.0%-3.0% in women). In men, nonsignificant increase in suicide by firearms, air guns and explosives observed during the period 1991-1997 (by +6.1% per year) was followed by a significant decrease until 2014 (by -3.1% per year). The significantly increased mortality in suicide by firearms, air guns, and explosives was observed in older men (aged 40-69 years and 80 years and over).

LIMITATIONS

The low rate of autopsies in Serbia, as well as the accuracy, reliability and comparability of the suicide mortality data is always a question.

CONCLUSIONS

Downward trend in suicide mortality occurred in Serbia in last two decades. However, suicide rates are still very high in Serbia compared with the rates of suicides in developed countries. Particularly worrisome is the increase in mortality in older men, especially due to firearm suicides, air rifles, and explosives. Thus, additional efforts in the prevention of suicide are very important.

Association of the consumption of common food groups and beverages with mortality from cancer, ischaemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus in Serbia, 1991-2010: an ecological study

OBJECTIVES

This paper reports association between mortality rates from cancer, ischaemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus and the consumption of common food groups and beverages in Serbia.

DESIGN

In this ecological study, data on both mortality and the average annual consumption of common food groups and beverages per household's member were obtained from official data-collection sources. The multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine the strength of the associations between consumption of common food groups and beverages and mortality rates.

RESULTS

Markedly increasing trends of cancer, ischaemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus mortality rates were observed in Serbia in the period 1991-2010. Mortality rates from cancer were negatively associated with consumption of vegetable oil (p=0.005) and grains (p=0.001), and same was found for ischaemic heart disease (p=0.002 and 0.021, respectively), while consumption of other dairy products showed a significant positive association (p<0.001 and p=0.032, respectively). In men and women, mortality rates from diabetes mellitus showed a significant positive association with consumption of poultry (p=0.014 and 0.004, respectively). Consumption of beef and grains showed a significant negative association with cancer mortality rates in both genders (p=0.002 and p<0.001 in men, and p<0.001 and p=0.014 in women, respectively), while consumption of cheese was negatively associated only in men (p<0.001). Mortality from diabetes mellitus showed a significant positive association with consumption of animal fat and other dairy products only in women (p=0.003 and 0.046, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Association between unfavourable mortality trends from cancer, ischaemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus, and common food groups and beverages consumption was observed and should be assessed in future analytical epidemiological studies. Promotion of healthy diet is sorely needed in Serbia.

Gynaecological cancer mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis

This descriptive epidemiological study aimed to analyse the mortality trends from gynaecological cancer in Serbia. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for trend using joinpoint regression analysis. Nearly 25,000 gynaecological cancer deaths occurred in Serbia during the 1991-2010 period, with the average annual age-standardised mortality rate being 17.2 per 100,000 women. Increase of mortality was observed for cancer of the vulva and vagina (AAPC=+1.3%, 95% CI=0.1 to 2.6), ovarian cancer (AAPC=+0.8%, 95% CI=0.4-1.3) and for cervical cancer (AAPC=+0.7%, 95% CI=0.3 to 1.1). Mortality rates for gynaecological cancer overall declined in women aged 30-39 years, but mortality was increased in middle-aged women (for cervical cancer) and in the elderly (for ovarian cancer). Improvements to and implementation of the national cervical cancer screening programme conducted in 2013 and expected to be finalised in the following years throughout Serbia should contribute to improvement.

Cigarette smoking and breast cancer: a case-control study in Serbia

BACKGROUND

Despite the fact that breast cancer is the most common female cancer worldwide, more than half of the breast cancer risk factors remained unexplained. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of cigarette smoking with risk of breast cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A case-control study was conducted in the Clinical Centre of Kragujevac, Serbia, covering 382 participants (191 cases and 191 controls). In the analysis of data logistic regression was used.

RESULTS

Breast cancer risk was significantly increased in those who quit smoking at ≤ 50 years of age (OR=2.72; 95% confidence interval - 95%CI=1.02-7.27) and in those who quit smoking less than 5 years before diagnosis of the disease (OR=4.36; 95%CI=1.12-16.88). When smokers were compared with nonsmokers without passive exposure to smoking, former smoking significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR=2.37; 95%CI=1.07-5.24). Risk for breast cancer was significantly increased in those who quit smoking at ≤ 50 years of age (OR=3.29; 95%CI=1.17-9.27) and in those who quit smoking less than 5 years before diagnosis of the disease (OR=5.46; 95%CI=1.34-22.28).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that cigarette smoking is associated with an elevated risk of breast cancer among former smokers in Serbia.

Malignant lymphatic and hematopoietic neoplasms mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Limited data on mortality from malignant lymphatic and hematopoietic neoplasms have been published for Serbia.

METHODS

The study covered population of Serbia during the 1991-2010 period. Mortality trends were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Trend for overall death rates from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms significantly decreased: by -2.16% per year from 1991 through 1998, and then significantly increased by +2.20% per year for the 1998-2010 period. The growth during the entire period was on average +0.8% per year (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3). Mortality was higher among males than among females in all age groups. According to the comparability test, mortality trends from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P = 0.232). Among younger Serbian population (0-44 years old) in both sexes: trends significantly declined in males for the entire period, while in females 15-44 years of age mortality rates significantly declined only from 2003 onwards. Mortality trend significantly increased in elderly in both genders (by +1.7% in males and +1.5% in females in the 60-69 age group, and +3.8% in males and +3.6% in females in the 70+ age group). According to the comparability test, mortality trend for Hodgkin's lymphoma differed significantly from mortality trends for all other types of malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Unfavourable mortality trend in Serbia requires targeted intervention for risk factors control, early diagnosis and modern therapy.