Global Variations in Heart Failure Etiology, Management, and Outcomes

Importance

Most epidemiological studies of heart failure (HF) have been conducted in high-income countries with limited comparable data from middle- or low-income countries.

Objective

To examine differences in HF etiology, treatment, and outcomes between groups of countries at different levels of economic development.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Multinational HF registry of 23 341 participants in 40 high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries, followed up for a median period of 2.0 years.

Main Outcomes and Measures

HF cause, HF medication use, hospitalization, and death.

Results

Mean (SD) age of participants was 63.1 (14.9) years, and 9119 (39.1%) were female. The most common cause of HF was ischemic heart disease (38.1%) followed by hypertension (20.2%). The proportion of participants with HF with reduced ejection fraction taking the combination of a β-blocker, renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist was highest in upper-middle-income (61.9%) and high-income countries (51.1%), and it was lowest in low-income (45.7%) and lower-middle-income countries (39.5%) (P < .001). The age- and sex- standardized mortality rate per 100 person-years was lowest in high-income countries (7.8 [95% CI, 7.5-8.2]), 9.3 (95% CI, 8.8-9.9) in upper-middle-income countries, 15.7 (95% CI, 15.0-16.4) in lower-middle-income countries, and it was highest in low-income countries (19.1 [95% CI, 17.6-20.7]). Hospitalization rates were more frequent than death rates in high-income countries (ratio = 3.8) and in upper-middle-income countries (ratio = 2.4), similar in lower-middle-income countries (ratio = 1.1), and less frequent in low-income countries (ratio = 0.6). The 30-day case-fatality rate after first hospital admission was lowest in high-income countries (6.7%), followed by upper-middle-income countries (9.7%), then lower-middle-income countries (21.1%), and highest in low-income countries (31.6%). The proportional risk of death within 30 days of a first hospital admission was 3- to 5-fold higher in lower-middle-income countries and low-income countries compared with high-income countries after adjusting for patient characteristics and use of long-term HF therapies.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study of HF patients from 40 different countries and derived from 4 different economic levels demonstrated differences in HF etiologies, management, and outcomes. These data may be useful in planning approaches to improve HF prevention and treatment globally.

The Anti-Coronavirus Therapy (ACT) trials: design, baseline characteristics, and challenges

Background

Effective treatments for COVID-19 are urgently needed, but conducting randomized trials during the pandemic has been challenging.

Methods

The Anti-Coronavirus Therapy (ACT) trials are parallel factorial international trials that aimed to enroll 3500 outpatients and 2500 inpatients with symptomatic COVID-19. The outpatient trial is evaluating colchicine vs usual care, and aspirin vs usual care. The primary outcome for the colchicine randomization is hospitalization or death, and for the aspirin randomization, it is major thrombosis, hospitalization, or death. The inpatient trial is evaluating colchicine vs usual care, and the combination of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily and aspirin 100 mg once daily vs usual care. The primary outcome for the colchicine randomization is need for high-flow oxygen, need for mechanical ventilation, or death, and for the rivaroxaban plus aspirin randomization, it is major thrombotic events, need for high-flow oxygen, need for mechanical ventilation, or death.

Results

At the completion of enrollment on February 10, 2022, the outpatient trial had enrolled 3917 patients, and the inpatient trial had enrolled 2611 patients. Challenges encountered included lack of preliminary data about the interventions under evaluation, uncertainties related to the expected event rates, delays in regulatory and ethics approvals, and in obtaining study interventions, as well as the changing pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusions

The ACT trials will determine the efficacy of anti-inflammatory therapy with colchicine, and antithrombotic therapy with aspirin given alone or in combination with rivaroxaban, across the spectrum of mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19. Lessons learned from the conduct of these trials will inform planning of future trials.

Evaluation of ventricular strain values in patients after coronavirus 2019 infection

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

During the first months of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) pandemic there were several reports of myocardial involvement in recovered patients despite of symptoms presented during acute phase of the infection. That information led to a rising number of recomendations of screening for myocardial damage with different methods like electrocardiogram, echocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance and biomarkers in the pursuit of a cardiac event free return to normal activities. Because of this and knowing the capability of strain imaging to detect subclinical myocardial damage we decided to evaluate values of left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) and right ventricular free wall strain (RVFWS) in patients that were derived for echocardiographic evaluation after COVID 19 infection and their evolution.

Methods

We enrolled prospectively patients derived to our laboratory for evaluation of Doppler echocardiography after confirmed COVID 19 infection if they were in the month after clinical discharge and did not have previous known structural cardiac alterations. We obtained demographic, symptoms and echocardiographic data and calculated GLS and RVFWS. Six months after the index examination we did phone calls to asess symptoms and events. Data is presented with mean and standard deviation and percentages.

Results

Of 68 patients included 38 (55,88%) were male, mean age was 42 years (+- 12,5) and half of them were sedentary. 52 had mild symptoms during infection, 15 moderate and 1 severe that required mechanical ventilation. At the time of examination 58 were asymptomatic (85,29%) and the other complaint of dyspnea (3), weakness (8) and palpitations (6). Regarding echocardiographic data, mean eyection fraction estimated by Simpson´s biplane method was 65,6% (+- 4,33) and left atrial indexed volume 25 ml/m2 (+- 5,98). 44 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function, 21 grade 1 dysfunction and 2  had grade 2, with mean E/e´ relation 8,52 (+-2,03). Mean pulmonary artery systolic pressure estimated was 27,4 mmHg (+- 4,1) and tricuspid anular plane systolic excursion was 23,81 mm (+-3,12). Mean GLS was – 21,52% (+- 1,91) and RVFWS was – 29,15% (+- 5,4), in 2 patients we could not measure RVFWS due to bad quality of images. Only 2 patients had GLS above – 18%, thta were the patient with severe symptoms and 1 with moderate symptoms; and 10 had RVFWS above – 23%, all of them with moderate symptoms. We could contact 60 patients (88,23%) after 6 months and none of them had cardiac events or persistence of symptoms.

Conclusions

Calculation of GLS and RVFWS in this patients was feasible. We observed abnormalities in patients with severe and moderate symptoms at the time of infection, more frequently in RVFWS, but without relation to cardiac events or symptoms on follow up. Abstract Figure. GLS and RVFWS values

Variations in the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across 5 continents: A cross-sectional, individual level analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has caused profound socio-economic changes worldwide. However, internationally comparative data regarding the financial impact on individuals is sparse. Therefore, we conducted a survey of the financial impact of the pandemic on individuals, using an international cohort that has been well-characterized prior to the pandemic.

METHODS

Between August 2020 and September 2021, we surveyed 24,506 community-dwelling participants from the Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study across high (HIC), upper middle (UMIC)-and lower middle (LMIC)-income countries. We collected information regarding the impact of the pandemic on their self-reported personal finances and sources of income.

FINDINGS

Overall, 32.4% of participants had suffered an adverse financial impact, defined as job loss, inability to meet financial obligations or essential needs, or using savings to meet financial obligations. 8.4% of participants had lost a job (temporarily or permanently); 14.6% of participants were unable to meet financial obligations or essential needs at the time of the survey and 16.3% were using their savings to meet financial obligations. Participants with a post-secondary education were least likely to be adversely impacted (19.6%), compared with 33.4% of those with secondary education and 33.5% of those with pre-secondary education. Similarly, those in the highest wealth tertile were least likely to be financially impacted (26.7%), compared with 32.5% in the middle tertile and 30.4% in the bottom tertile participants. Compared with HICs, financial impact was greater in UMIC [odds ratio of 2.09 (1.88-2.33)] and greatest in LMIC [odds ratio of 16.88 (14.69-19.39)]. HIC participants with the lowest educational attainment suffered less financial impact (15.1% of participants affected) than those with the highest education in UMIC (22.0% of participants affected). Similarly, participants with the lowest education in UMIC experienced less financial impact (28.3%) than those with the highest education in LMIC (45.9%). A similar gradient was seen across country income categories when compared by pre-pandemic wealth status.

INTERPRETATION

The financial impact of the pandemic differs more between HIC, UMIC, and LMIC than between socio-economic categories within a country income level. The most disadvantaged socio-economic subgroups in HIC had a lower financial impact from the pandemic than the most advantaged subgroup in UMIC, with a similar disparity seen between UMIC and LMIC. Continued high levels of infection will exacerbate financial inequity between countries and hinder progress towards the sustainable development goals, emphasising the importance of effective measures to control COVID-19 and, especially, ensuring high vaccine coverage in all countries.

FUNDING

Funding for this study was provided by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the International Development Research Centre.

Variations in the association of height with mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Final adult height is a useful proxy measure of childhood nutrition and disease burden. Tall stature has been previously associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality, decreased risk of major cardiovascular events and an increased risk of cancer. However, these associations have primarily been derived from people of European and East Asian backgrounds, and there are sparse data from other regions of the world.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 21 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years. Height was measured in a standardized manner, without shoes, to the nearest 0.1 cm. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years (interquartile range 8.3-12.0), we assessed the risk of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events and cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 154 610 participants, enrolled since January 2003, with known height and vital status, were included in this analysis. Follow-up event data until March 2021 were used; 11 487 (7.4%) participants died, whereas 9291 (6.0%) participants had a major cardiovascular event and 5873 (3.8%) participants had a new diagnosis of cancer. After adjustment, taller individuals had lower hazards of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) per 10-cm increase in height 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.96] and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00), whereas the hazard of cancer was higher in taller participants (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28). The interaction p-values between height and country-income level for all three outcomes were <0.001, suggesting that the association with height varied by country-income level for these outcomes. In low-income countries, height was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.92) and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93). There was no association of height with these outcomes in middle- and high-income countries. The respective HRs for cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries were 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.32), 1.12 (95% CI 1.04-1.22) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.14-1.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike high- and middle-income countries, tall stature has a strong inverse association with all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events in low-income countries. Improved childhood physical development and advances in population-wide cardiovascular treatments in high- and middle-income countries may contribute to this gap. From a life-course perspective, we hypothesize that optimizing maternal and child health in low-income countries may improve rates of premature mortality and cardiovascular events in these countries, at a population level.

Association of ultra-processed food intake with risk of inflammatory bowel disease: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relation between intake of ultra-processed food and risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

21 low, middle, and high income countries across seven geographical regions (Europe and North America, South America, Africa, Middle East, south Asia, South East Asia, and China).

PARTICIPANTS

116 087 adults aged 35-70 years with at least one cycle of follow-up and complete baseline food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) data (country specific validated FFQs were used to document baseline dietary intake). Participants were followed prospectively at least every three years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was development of IBD, including Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis. Associations between ultra-processed food intake and risk of IBD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard multivariable models. Results are presented as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Participants were enrolled in the study between 2003 and 2016. During the median follow-up of 9.7 years (interquartile range 8.9-11.2 years), 467 participants developed incident IBD (90 with Crohn's disease and 377 with ulcerative colitis). After adjustment for potential confounding factors, higher intake of ultra-processed food was associated with a higher risk of incident IBD (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 2.72 for ≥5 servings/day and 1.67, 1.18 to 2.37 for 1-4 servings/day compared with <1 serving/day, P=0.006 for trend). Different subgroups of ultra-processed food, including soft drinks, refined sweetened foods, salty snacks, and processed meat, each were associated with higher hazard ratios for IBD. Results were consistent for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis with low heterogeneity. Intakes of white meat, red meat, dairy, starch, and fruit, vegetables, and legumes were not associated with incident IBD.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of ultra-processed food was positively associated with risk of IBD. Further studies are needed to identify the contributory factors within ultra-processed foods.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03225586.

Association of estimated sleep duration and naps with mortality and cardiovascular events: a study of 116 632 people from 21 countries

AIMS

To investigate the association of estimated total daily sleep duration and daytime nap duration with deaths and major cardiovascular events.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated the durations of total daily sleep and daytime naps based on the amount of time in bed and self-reported napping time and examined the associations between them and the composite outcome of deaths and major cardiovascular events in 116 632 participants from seven regions. After a median follow-up of 7.8 years, we recorded 4381 deaths and 4365 major cardiovascular events. It showed both shorter (≤6 h/day) and longer (>8 h/day) estimated total sleep durations were associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome when adjusted for age and sex. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviours and health status, a J-shaped association was observed. Compared with sleeping 6-8 h/day, those who slept ≤6 h/day had a non-significant trend for increased risk of the composite outcome [hazard ratio (HR), 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.20]. As estimated sleep duration increased, we also noticed a significant trend for a greater risk of the composite outcome [HR of 1.05 (0.99-1.12), 1.17 (1.09-1.25), and 1.41 (1.30-1.53) for 8-9 h/day, 9-10 h/day, and >10 h/day, Ptrend < 0.0001, respectively]. The results were similar for each of all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events. Daytime nap duration was associated with an increased risk of the composite events in those with over 6 h of nocturnal sleep duration, but not in shorter nocturnal sleepers (≤6 h).

CONCLUSION

Estimated total sleep duration of 6-8 h per day is associated with the lowest risk of deaths and major cardiovascular events. Daytime napping is associated with increased risks of major cardiovascular events and deaths in those with >6 h of nighttime sleep but not in those sleeping ≤6 h/night.

Global variations in the prevalence, treatment, and impact of atrial fibrillation in a multi-national cohort of 153 152 middle-aged individuals

AIMS

To compare the prevalence of electrocardiogram (ECG)-documented atrial fibrillation (or flutter) (AF) across eight regions of the world, and to examine antithrombotic use and clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Baseline ECGs were collected in 153 152 middle-aged participants (ages 35-70 years) to document AF in two community-based studies, spanning 20 countries. Medication use and clinical outcome data (mean follow-up of 7.4 years) were available in one cohort. Cross-sectional analyses were performed to document the prevalence of AF and medication use, and associations between AF and clinical events were examined prospectively. Mean age of participants was 52.1 years, and 57.7% were female. Age and sex-standardized prevalence of AF varied 12-fold between regions; with the highest in North America, Europe, China, and Southeast Asia (270-360 cases per 100 000 persons); and lowest in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia (30-60 cases per 100 000 persons) (P < 0.001). Compared with low-income countries (LICs), AF prevalence was 7-fold higher in middle-income countries (MICs) and 11-fold higher in high-income countries (HICs) (P < 0.001). Differences in AF prevalence remained significant after adjusting for traditional AF risk factors. In LICs/MICs, 24% of participants with AF and a CHADS2 score ≥1 received antithrombotic therapy, compared with 85% in HICs. AF was associated with an increased risk of stroke [hazard ratio (HR) 2.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-3.52] and death (HR 2.97; 95% CI 2.25-3.93); with similar rates in different countries grouped by income level.

CONCLUSIONS

Large variations in AF prevalence occur in different regions and countries grouped by income level, but this is only partially explained by traditional AF risk factors. Antithrombotic therapy is infrequently used in poorer countries despite the high risk of stroke associated with AF.

Association of dairy consumption with metabolic syndrome, hypertension and diabetes in 147 812 individuals from 21 countries

OBJECTIVE

Our aims were to assess the association of dairy intake with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (cross-sectionally) and with incident hypertension and incident diabetes (prospectively) in a large multinational cohort study.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a prospective epidemiological study of individuals aged 35 and 70 years from 21 countries on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.1 years. In the cross-sectional analyses, we assessed the association of dairy intake with prevalent MetS and its components among individuals with information on the five MetS components (n=112 922). For the prospective analyses, we examined the association of dairy with incident hypertension (in 57 547 individuals free of hypertension) and diabetes (in 131 481 individuals free of diabetes).

RESULTS

In cross-sectional analysis, higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day compared with zero intake; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, p-trend<0.0001) was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS after multivariable adjustment. Higher intakes of whole fat dairy consumed alone (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78, p-trend<0.0001), or consumed jointly with low fat dairy (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p-trend=0.0005), were associated with a lower MetS prevalence. Low fat dairy consumed alone was not associated with MetS (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.38, p-trend=0.13). In prospective analysis, 13 640 people with incident hypertension and 5351 people with incident diabetes were recorded. Higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day vs zero serving/day) was associated with a lower incidence of hypertension (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97, p-trend=0.02) and diabetes (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.02, p-trend=0.01). Directionally similar associations were found for whole fat dairy versus each outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of whole fat (but not low fat) dairy was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS and most of its component factors, and with a lower incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Our findings should be evaluated in large randomized trials of the effects of whole fat dairy on the risks of MetS, hypertension, and diabetes.

The household economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 18 countries

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries.

Methods

Using data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China.

Results

The prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs.

Conclusions

Our findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs.

Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; p_trend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72-0·96; p_trend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72-1·02; p_trend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58-1·01; p_trend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67-0·90; p_trend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53-0·82; p_trend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71-1·11; p_trend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; p_trend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75-0·99; p_trend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76-1·02; p_trend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90-1·33; p_trend=0·4113).

INTERPRETATION

Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes across high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce on the availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes. Our aim was to examine the availability and affordability of metformin, sulfonylureas, and insulin across multiple regions of the world and explore the effect of these on medicine use.

METHODS

In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, participants aged 35-70 years (n=156 625) were recruited from 110 803 households, in 604 communities and 22 countries; availability (presence of any dose of medication in the pharmacy on the day of audit) and medicine cost data were collected from pharmacies with the Environmental Profile of a Community's Health audit tool. Our primary analysis was to describe the availability and affordability of metformin and insulin and also commonly used and prescribed combinations of two medicines for diabetes management (two oral drugs, metformin plus a sulphonylurea [either glibenclamide (also known as glyburide) or gliclazide] and one oral drug plus insulin [metformin plus insulin]). Medicines were defined as affordable if the cost of medicines was less than 20% of capacity-to-pay (the household income minus food expenditure). Our analyses included data collected in pharmacies and data from representative samples of households. Data on availability were ascertained during the pharmacy audit, as were data on cost of medications. These cost data were used to estimate the cost of a month's supply of essential medicines for diabetes. We estimated affordability of medicines using income data from household surveys.

FINDINGS

Metformin was available in 113 (100%) of 113 pharmacies from high-income countries, 112 (88·2%) of 127 pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 179 (86·1%) of 208 pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, 44 (64·7%) of 68 pharmacies in low-income countries (excluding India), and 88 (100%) of 88 pharmacies in India. Insulin was available in 106 (93·8%) pharmacies in high-income countries, 51 (40·2%) pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 61 (29·3%) pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, seven (10·3%) pharmacies in lower-income countries, and 67 (76·1%) of 88 pharmacies in India. We estimated 0·7% of households in high-income countries and 26·9% of households in low-income countries could not afford metformin and 2·8% of households in high-income countries and 63·0% of households in low-income countries could not afford insulin. Among the 13 569 (8·6% of PURE participants) that reported a diagnosis of diabetes, 1222 (74·0%) participants reported diabetes medicine use in high-income countries compared with 143 (29·6%) participants in low-income countries. In multilevel models, availability and affordability were significantly associated with use of diabetes medicines.

INTERPRETATION

Availability and affordability of essential diabetes medicines are poor in low-income and middle-income countries. Awareness of these global differences might importantly drive change in access for patients with diabetes.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Amino acid and hyaluronic acid mixtures differentially regulate extra cellular matrix genes in cultured human fibroblasts

The aim of this screening study was to evaluate the efficacy of different proprietary mixtures of amino acid and hyaluronic acid (HA) in stimulating the production of extracellular matrix (ECM) components, particularly the neo-synthesis of elastin, and in promoting a more efficient deposition of elastic fibres (elastogenesis), while at the same time maintaining the stimulation of collagen. The study has allowed identification of the optimal ratios between the amino acids (AA) for the production of collagen and elastin. Human primary dermal fibroblasts from a 44-year-old female donor were used as a test system in an experimental design based on the evaluation of the expression of relevant ECM genes using a transcriptomic dynamic approach. The expression of ECM genes was evaluated by RTqPCR from 24 to 120 hours in the presence of the test items. Moreover, the production of ECM proteins was verified by Western blot analysis after a 120 h treatment period. In addition to elastin, collagen IV, a fundamental structural component of the basal lamina responsible for epithelial and connective tissue anchoring, was analysed as potential target for the modulation of ECM protein production by human fibroblast. The first phase of the study demonstrated that alanine and valine are essential to promote production of elastin, of which they are important constituents. The second phase of the study, which was conducted to clarify the interactions between the different clusters of AA, demonstrated that it is necessary to choose a mixture that contains specific amounts of amino acids of both proteins, collagen and elastin, to give a significant response and a significant production of both. This also proves the existence of a ratio between the 2 clusters (AA elastin/AA collagen) that guarantees an adequate and balanced response to gene expression and production by fibroblasts, collagen and elastin. The study has allowed identification of the optimal ratios between the AA for the production of collagen and elastin.

L'angiografia a risonanza magnetica nello studio del circolo cerebrale

Le recenti acquisizioni tecniche hanno rapidamente reso l'angiografia RM una delle più importanti indagini vascolari non invasive. Scopo della nostra ricerca è verificare l'applicabilità clinica dell'angiografia RM e valutare la sua accuratezza diagnostica nei confronti dell'angiografia per via arteriosa (angiografia invasiva) nello studio degli aneurismi del circolo cerebrale. Sono stati esaminati con «Angiografia Tridimensionale a Risonanza Magnetica», basata sul fenomeno del «tempo di volo», 23 pazienti, con un numero complessivo di 25 aneurismi, di cui 4 con dimensioni superiori ad 1,5 cm (macroaneurismi). In tutti i casi sono state utilizzate sequenze ad «Eco di Gradiente» 3D con compensazione per il flusso, mentre nei 4 casi di macroaneurisma sono state impiegate anche sequenze ad «Eco di Gradiente» 2D «single slice». In tutti i pazienti l'angiografia RM è stata associata ad una valutazione con sequenze Spin-Echo del parenchima cerebrale allo scopo di documentare l'eventuale presenza di aree di sofferenza parenchimale. L'angiografia invasiva per via arteriosa era disponibile per il confronto in tutti i casi. 18 pazienti sono stati sottoposti ad intervento chirurgico di «legatura» dell'aneurisma. Nei confonti dell'angiografia invasiva la sensibilità dell'angiografia RM è risultata complessivamente dell' 88% e la specificità del 90%, con un'accuratezza diagnostica dell'89%. Lo studio dimostra come l'angiografia RM, basata sul fenomeno del «tempo di volo», sia in grado di identificare aneurismi di dimensioni fino a 3mm e possa essere utilmente impiegata nella valutazione clinica dell'encefalo come fonte di informazioni supplementari sul circolo cerebrale.

Association of Urinary Sodium Excretion With Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Clinical Events in 17,033 Latin Americans

BACKGROUND

Information on actual sodium intake and its relationships with blood pressure (BP) and clinical events in South America is limited. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the relationship of sodium intake with BP, cardiovascular (CV) events, and mortality in South America.

METHODS

We studied 17,033 individuals, aged 35-70 years, from 4 South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia). Measures of sodium excretion, estimated from morning fasting urine, were used as a surrogate for daily sodium intake. We measured BP and monitored the composite outcome of death and major CV events.

RESULTS

Overall mean sodium excretion was 4.70±1.43g/day. A positive, nonuniform association between sodium and BP was detected, with a significant steeper slope for the relationship at higher sodium excretion levels (P < 0.001 for interaction). With a median follow-up of 4.7 years, the primary composite outcome (all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) occurred in 568 participants (3.4%). Compared with sodium excretion of 5-6g/day (reference group), participants who excreted >7g/day had increased risks of the primary outcome (odds ratio (OR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24 to 2.40; P < 0.001), as well as death from any cause (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.23 to 2.83; P = 0.003) and major CV disease (OR 1.77; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.81; P = 0.014). Sodium excretion of <3g/day was associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of the primary outcome (OR 1.20; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.65; P = 0.26) and death from any cause (OR 1.25; 95% CI 0.81 to 1.93; P = 0.29), and a significant increased risk of major CV disease (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.24; P = 0.048), as compared to the reference group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support a positive, nonuniform association between estimated urinary sodium excretion and BP, and a possible J-shaped pattern of association between sodium excretion over the entire range and clinical outcomes.

The environmental profile of a community's health: a cross-sectional study on tobacco marketing in 16 countries

OBJECTIVE

To examine and compare tobacco marketing in 16 countries while the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control requires parties to implement a comprehensive ban on such marketing.

METHODS

Between 2009 and 2012, a kilometre-long walk was completed by trained investigators in 462 communities across 16 countries to collect data on tobacco marketing. We interviewed community members about their exposure to traditional and non-traditional marketing in the previous six months. To examine differences in marketing between urban and rural communities and between high-, middle- and low-income countries, we used multilevel regression models controlling for potential confounders.

FINDINGS

Compared with high-income countries, the number of tobacco advertisements observed was 81 times higher in low-income countries (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 80.98; 95% confidence interval, CI: 4.15-1578.42) and the number of tobacco outlets was 2.5 times higher in both low- and lower-middle-income countries (IRR: 2.58; 95% CI: 1.17-5.67 and IRR: 2.52; CI: 1.23-5.17, respectively). Of the 11,842 interviewees, 1184 (10%) reported seeing at least five types of tobacco marketing. Self-reported exposure to at least one type of traditional marketing was 10 times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries (odds ratio, OR: 9.77; 95% CI: 1.24-76.77). For almost all measures, marketing exposure was significantly lower in the rural communities than in the urban communities.

CONCLUSION

Despite global legislation to limit tobacco marketing, it appears ubiquitous. The frequency and type of tobacco marketing varies on the national level by income group and by community type, appearing to be greatest in low-income countries and urban communities.

Prognostic value of grip strength: findings from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study

BACKGROUND

Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries.

METHODS

The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (IQR 2.9-5.1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally.

FINDINGS

Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142,861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139,691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (IQR 2.9-5.1), 3379 (2%) of 139,691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength and each outcome, with the exceptions of cancer and hospital admission due to respiratory illness, was similar across country-income strata. Grip strength was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg reduction in grip strength 1.16, 95% CI 1.13-1.20; p<0.0001), cardiovascular mortality (1.17, 1.11-1.24; p<0.0001), non-cardiovascular mortality (1.17, 1.12-1.21; p<0.0001), myocardial infarction (1.07, 1.02-1.11; p=0.002), and stroke (1.09, 1.05-1.15; p<0.0001). Grip strength was a stronger predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than systolic blood pressure. We found no significant association between grip strength and incident diabetes, risk of hospital admission for pneumonia or COPD, injury from fall, or fracture. In high-income countries, the risk of cancer and grip strength were positively associated (0.916, 0.880-0.953; p<0.0001), but this association was not found in middle-income and low-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

This study suggests that measurement of grip strength is a simple, inexpensive risk-stratifying method for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify determinants of muscular strength and to test whether improvement in strength reduces mortality and cardiovascular disease.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Impact of age on viral kinetics of peginterferon alfa-2a/ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C: final analysis from the PROPHESYS cohort

The population of patients with chronic hepatitis C viral infection is ageing; however, elderly, hepatitis C-infected patients are understudied and less frequently treated. This subanalysis of data from the multinational PROPHESYS study examined associations between age (≤65 vs >65 years), on-treatment virological response and sustained virological response (SVR) in patients treated with peginterferon alfa-2a (40KD)/ribavirin in accordance with local licences. PROPHESYS comprised three cohorts studied in 19 countries according to country-specific legal and regulatory requirements. This subanalysis includes treatment-naive HCV mono-infected patients assigned to receive peginterferon alfa-2a (40KD)/ribavirin, with 6276 individuals aged ≤65 years and 349 aged >65 years. Rapid virological response (RVR) rates by Week 4 were consistently lower in older genotype (G) 1 (21.6% vs 27.2% in younger patients), G2 (80.7% vs 85.1%) and G3 (60.0% vs 74.2%) patients. SVR rates were significantly lower (29.8% vs 43.0%) and relapse rates significantly higher (43.1% vs 26.7%) in older G1 patients (P = 0.0002 vs ≤65 years). In contrast, SVR and relapse rates were similar in G2 and G3 patients regardless of age. The positive predictive value of RVR for SVR was comparable in older and younger G1 patients (66.7% vs 68.6%, respectively) and higher in older G2 (80.7% vs 75.6%) and G3 (77.8% vs 66.8%) patients. Virological response rates are generally lower in elderly CHC patients, and RVR is a reliable positive predictor of SVR in patients >65 years.

Early kinetics of innate and adaptive immune responses during hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Innate immunity appears to be silent in acutely hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected chimpanzees, as shown by microarray analysis of intrahepatic gene expression. Whether this observation also applies to HBV pathogenesis in man remains undefined. The aim of this study was thus to characterise natural killer (NK) and CD56(+) natural T (NT) cell responses early after human HBV infection and their relationship to the induction of adaptive immunity.

METHODS

Two HBV-seronegative blood donors who became hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and HBV DNA positive but had persistently normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were followed from a very early stage of HBV infection. The phenotype (CD69 and NKG2D) and function (cytotoxicity and interferon gamma (IFN gamma) production) of NK and NT cells were analysed. CD4- and CD8-mediated responses were studied in parallel with overlapping peptides covering the entire HBV sequence by ex vivo intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) for IFN gamma, interleukin 2 (IL2), IL4 and IL10, and by ex vivo Elispot for IFN gamma. Healthy subjects, and patients with chronic and acute HBV infection were studied for comparison.

RESULTS

An early induction of both innate and adaptive responses was observed. NK and NT cells showed faster kinetics than HBV-specific T cells with an earlier peak of activity, while CD4(+) and CD8(+) cell responses were mounted with a similar profile, with higher frequencies of IFN gamma-producing CD8(+) cells at the peak of the response.

CONCLUSIONS

The innate immune system is able to sense HBV infection, as shown by the early development of NK and NT cell responses, which probably contribute to contain the HBV infection and to allow timely induction of adaptive responses.