Cost-effectiveness of single-pill and separate-pill administration of antihypertensive triple combination therapy: a population-based microsimulation study

BACKGROUND

Single-pill combination (SPC) of three antihypertensive drugs has been shown to improve adherence to therapy compared with free combinations, but little is known about its long-term costs and health consequences. This study aimed to evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness profile of a three-drug SPC of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, a calcium-channel blocker, and a diuretic vs the corresponding two-pill administration (a two-drug SPC plus a third drug separately) from the Italian payer perspective.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using multi-state semi-Markov modeling and microsimulation. Using the healthcare utilization database of the Lombardy Region (Italy), 30,172 and 65,817 patients aged ≥ 40 years who initiated SPC and two-pill combination, respectively, between 2015 and 2018 were identified. The observation period extended from the date of the first drug dispensation until death, emigration, or December 31, 2019. Disease and cost models were parametrized using the study cohort, and a lifetime microsimulation was applied to project costs and life expectancy for the compared strategies, assigning each of them to each cohort member. Costs and life-years gained were discounted by 3%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 1,000 samples was performed to address parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Compared with the two-pill combination, the SPC increased life expectancy by 0.86 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-1.14), with a mean cost differential of -€12 (95% CI -9,719-8,131), making it the dominant strategy (ICER = -14, 95% CI -€15,871-€7,113). The cost reduction associated with the SPC was primarily driven by savings in hospitalization costs, amounting to €1,850 (95% CI 17-7,813) and €2,027 (95% CI 19-8,603) for patients treated with the SPC and two-pill combination, respectively. Conversely, drug costs were higher for the SPC (€3,848, 95% CI 574-10,640 vs. €3,710, 95% CI 263-11,955). The cost-effectiveness profile did not significantly change according to age, sex, and clinical status.

CONCLUSIONS

The SPC was projected to be cost-effective compared with the two-pill combination at almost all reasonable willingness-to-pay thresholds. As it is currently prescribed to only a few patients, the widespread use of this strategy could result in benefits for both patients and the healthcare system.

Flexible Approaches Based on Multistate Models and Microsimulation to Perform Real-World Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: An Application to Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin-Kexin Type 9 Inhibitors

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to show the application of flexible statistical methods in real-world cost-effectiveness analyses applied in the cardiovascular field, focusing specifically on the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors for hyperlipidemia.

METHODS

The proposed method allowed us to use an electronic health database to emulate a target trial for cost-effectiveness analysis using multistate modeling and microsimulation. We formally established the study design and provided precise definitions of the causal measures of interest while also outlining the assumptions necessary for accurately estimating these measures using the available data. Additionally, we thoroughly considered goodness-of-fit assessments and sensitivity analyses of the decision model, which are crucial to capture the complexity of individuals' healthcare pathway and to enhance the validity of this type of health economic models.

RESULTS

In the disease model, the Markov assumption was found to be inadequate, and a "time-reset" timescale was implemented together with the use of a time-dependent variable to incorporate past hospitalization history. Furthermore, the microsimulation decision model demonstrated a satisfying goodness of fit, as evidenced by the consistent results obtained in the short-term horizon compared with a nonmodel-based approach. Notably, proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors revealed their favorable cost-effectiveness only in the long-term follow-up, with a minimum willingness to pay of 39 000 Euro/life years gained.

CONCLUSIONS

The approach demonstrated its significant utility in several ways. Unlike nonmodel-based or alternative model-based methods, it enabled to (1) investigate long-term cost-effectiveness comprehensively, (2) use an appropriate disease model that aligns with the specific problem under study, and (3) conduct subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses to gain more targeted insights.

Prediction of 30-day mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis using risk scores: Insights from a European multicenter comparative validation study

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear today whether risk scores created specifically to predict early mortality after cardiac operations for infective endocarditis (IE) outperform or not the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II).

METHODS

Perioperative data and outcomes from a European multicenter series of patients undergoing surgery for definite IE were retrospectively reviewed. Only the cases with known pathogen and without missing values for all considered variables were retained for analyses. A comparative validation of EuroSCORE II and five specific risk scores for early mortality after surgery for IE - (1) STS-IE (Society of Thoracic Surgeons for IE); (2) PALSUSE (Prosthetic valve, Age ≥70, Large intra-cardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, Urgent surgery, Sex (female), EuroSCORE ≥10); (3) ANCLA (Anemia, New York Heart Association class IV, Critical state, Large intra-cardiac destruction, surgery on thoracic Aorta); (4) AEPEI II (Association pour l'Étude et la Prévention de l'Endocardite Infectieuse II); (5) APORTEI (Análisis de los factores PROnósticos en el Tratamiento quirúrgico de la Endocarditis Infecciosa) - was carried out using calibration plot and receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Areas under the curve (AUCs) were compared 1:1 according to the Hanley-McNeil's method. The agreement between APORTEI score and EuroSCORE II of the 30-day mortality prediction after surgery was also appraised.

RESULTS

A total of 1,012 patients from five European university-affiliated centers underwent 1,036 cardiac operations, with a 30-day mortality after surgery of 9.7%. All IE-specific risk scores considered achieved better results than EuroSCORE II in terms of calibration; AEPEI II and APORTEI score showed the best performances. Despite poor calibration, EuroSCORE II overcame in discrimination every specific risk score (AUC, 0.751 vs. 0.693 or less, p=0.01 or less). For a higher/lesser than 20% expected mortality, the agreement of prediction between APORTEI score and EuroSCORE II was 86%.

CONCLUSION

EuroSCORE II discrimination for 30-day mortality after surgery for IE was higher than five established IE-specific risk scores. AEPEI II and APORTEI score showed the best results in terms of calibration.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Characterization and Clinical Outcomes of Dilated and Arrhythmogenic Left Ventricular Cardiomyopathies

BACKGROUND

Nondilated left ventricular cardiomyopathy (NDLVC) has been recently differentiated from dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). A comprehensive characterization of these 2 entities using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and genetic testing has never been performed.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to provide a thorough characterization and assess clinical outcomes in a large multicenter cohort of patients with DCM and NDLVC.

METHODS

A total of 462 patients with DCM (227) or NDLVC (235) with CMR data from 4 different referral centers were retrospectively analyzed. The study endpoint was a composite of sudden cardiac death or major ventricular arrhythmias.

RESULTS

In comparison to DCM, NDLVC had a higher prevalence of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants of arrhythmogenic genes (40% vs 23%; P < 0.001), higher left ventricular (LV) systolic function (LV ejection fraction: 51% ± 12% vs 36% ± 15%; P < 0.001) and higher prevalence of free-wall late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) (27% vs 14%; P < 0.001). Conversely, DCM showed higher prevalence of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants of nonarrhythmogenic genes (23% vs 12%; P = 0.002) and septal LGE (45% vs 32%; P = 0.004). Over a median follow-up of 81 months (Q1-Q3: 40-132 months), the study outcome occurred in 98 (21%) patients. LGE with septal location (HR: 1.929; 95% CI: 1.033-3.601; P = 0.039) was independently associated with the risk of sudden cardiac death or major ventricular arrhythmias together with LV dilatation, older age, advanced NYHA functional class, frequent ventricular ectopic activity, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia.

CONCLUSIONS

In a multicenter cohort of patients with DCM and NDLVC, septal LGE together with LV dilatation, age, advanced disease, and frequent and repetitive ventricular arrhythmias were powerful predictors of major arrhythmic events.

Intra-hospital variation of gut microbiota product, trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO), predicts future major adverse cardiovascular events after myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) has been associated with atherosclerosis and poor outcome. We evaluated the prognostic impact of intra-hospital TMAO variation on patient outcome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Blood samples from 149 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were taken on admission and discharge. Plasma TMAO was determined by HPLC-MS. The endpoint was a composite three-point MACE (major adverse cardiovascular events), including all-cause mortality, re-infarction, or heart failure (HF) development. Median TMAO concentration on admission was significantly higher than on discharge (respectively, 7.81 [3.47-19.98] vs 3.45 [2.3-4.78] μM, p < 0.001). After estimating the 3.45 μM TMAO cut-off with the analysis of the continuous hazard ratio, we divided our cohort into two groups. The first group included 75 (50.3%) patients whose TMAO levels remained below or decreased under cut-off (low-low/high-low; LL/HL), while the second group included 74 (49.7%) patients whose TMAO levels remained high or increased above the cut-off during hospitalisation (high-high/low-high; HH/LH). During the median 30-month follow-up, 21.5% of patients experienced the composite endpoint. At Kaplan-Meier analysis, a trend of increasing MACE risk was observed in patients in the HH/LH group (p = 0.05). At multivariable Cox analysis, patients from the HH/LH group had more than two times higher risk of MACE during the follow-up than the LL/HL group (HR = 2.15 [95% CI, 1.03-4.5], p = 0.04). Other independent predictors of MACE were older age and worse left ventricular systolic function.

CONCLUSION

In patients with AMI, permanently high or increasing TMAO levels during hospitalisation are associated with a higher risk of MACE during long-term follow-up.

Transcatheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Multicenter Propensity Score-Based Analysis

Background

The prognostic impact of catheter ablation (CA) of atrial fibrillation (AF) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients has not yet been satisfactorily elucidated.

Objectives

The aim of the study was to assess the impact of CA of AF on clinical outcomes in a large cohort of HCM patients.

Methods

In this retrospective multicenter study, 555 HCM patients with AF were enrolled, 140 undergoing CA and 415 receiving medical therapy. 1:1 propensity score matching led to the inclusion of 226 patients (113 medical group, 113 intervention group) in the final analysis. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, heart transplant and acute heart failure exacerbations. Secondary outcomes included AF recurrence and transition to permanent AF. Additionally, an inverse probability weighted (IPW) model was examined.

Results

At propensity score matching analysis, after a median follow-up of 58.1 months, the primary endpoint occurred in 29 (25.7%) patients in intervention group vs 42 (37.2%) in medical group (P = 0.9). Thromboembolic strokes and major arrhythmic events in intervention vs medical group were 9.7% vs 7.1% (P = 0.144) and 4.4 vs 8.0% (P = 0.779), respectively. Fewer patients in intervention vs medical group experienced AF recurrences (63.7% vs 84.1%, P = 0.001) and transition to permanent AF pattern (20.4% vs 33.6%, P = 0.026). IPW analysis showed consistent results. Severe complications related to CA were uncommon (0.7%).

Conclusions

After 5 years of follow-up, CA did not improve major adverse cardiac outcomes in a large cohort of patients with HCM and AF. Nevertheless, CA seems to facilitate the maintenance of sinus rhythm and slow the progression to permanent AF, without significant safety concerns.

Clinical and Prognostic Implications of Right Ventricular Uptake on Bone Scintigraphy in Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

The extent of myocardial bone tracer uptake with technetium pyrophosphate, hydroxymethylene diphosphonate, and 3,3-diphosphono-1,2-propanodicarboxylate in transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) might reflect cardiac amyloid burden and be associated with outcome.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with ATTR-CM who underwent diagnostic bone tracer scintigraphy with acquisition of whole-body planar and cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images from the National Amyloidosis Centre and 4 Italian centers were included. Cardiac uptake was defined according to the Perugini classification: 0=absent cardiac uptake; 1=mild uptake less than bone; 2=moderate uptake equal to bone; and 3=high uptake greater than bone. Extent of right ventricular (RV) uptake was defined as focal (basal segment of the RV free wall only) or diffuse (extending beyond basal segment) on the basis of SPECT imaging. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1422 patients with ATTR-CM, RV uptake accompanying left ventricular uptake was identified by SPECT imaging in 100% of cases at diagnosis. Median follow-up in the whole cohort was 34 months (interquartile range, 21 to 50 months), and 494 patients died. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, diffuse RV uptake on SPECT imaging (n=936) was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared with focal (n=486) RV uptake (77.9% versus 22.1%; P<0.001), whereas Perugini grade was not associated with survival (P=0.27 in grade 2 versus grade 3). On multivariable analysis, after adjustment for age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 [95% CI, 1.02-1.04]; P<0.001), presence of the p.(V142I) TTR variant (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.20-1.81]; P=0.004), National Amyloidosis Centre stage (each category, P<0.001), stroke volume index (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.97-0.99]; P=0.043), E/e' (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.007-1.03]; P=0.004), right atrial area index (HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.02-1.08]; P=0.001), and left ventricular global longitudinal strain (HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.09]; P<0.001), diffuse RV uptake on SPECT imaging (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.26-2.04]; P<0.001) remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The prognostic value of diffuse RV uptake was maintained across each National Amyloidosis Centre stage and in both wild-type and hereditary ATTR-CM (P<0.001 and P=0.02, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Diffuse RV uptake of bone tracer on SPECT imaging is associated with poor outcomes in patients with ATTR-CM and is an independent prognostic marker at diagnosis.

Applicability and performance of heart failure prognostic scores in dilated cardiomyopathy: the real-world experience of an Italian referral center for cardiomyopathies

BACKGROUND

The performance of heart failure (HF) risk models is validated in the general population with HF but in specific aetiological settings, and specifically in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), has scarcely been explored. We tested eight of the main prognostic scores used in HF in a large real-world population of patients with DCM.

METHODS

We included 784 consecutive DCM patients enrolled, both inpatients and outpatients, enrolled between January 2000 and December 2017. The risk of 1 and/or 3-year all-cause mortality/heart transplantation/durable left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation (D/HTx/LVAD) was estimated in our cohort according to the following risk scores SHFM, 3-CHF, CHARM, MAGGIC, GISSI-HF, MECKI, Barcelona Bio-HF, Krakow score and their accuracy calculated through the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.8 years (Interquartile Range 3.2-7.6 years), 191 patients (20%) died or underwent HTx/LVAD (158 deaths, 30 heart transplantations, and 3 LVAD implantations). The high missing rate allowed to calculated only four prognostic models (MAGGIC, CHARM, 3-CHF and SHFM). All the scores overestimated the rate of D/HTx/LVAD. The prognostic accuracy was suboptimal for MAGGIC (AUC 0.754) and CHARM (AUC 0.720) scores and only modest for 3-CHF (AUC 0.677) and SHFM (AUC 0.667).

CONCLUSIONS

Main prognostic scores for the risk stratification of HF are only partially applicable to real-world patients with DCM. MAGGIC and CHARM scores showed the best accuracy, despite the overestimation of risk. Our findings corroborate the need of specific risk scores for the prognostic stratification of DCM.

CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE

What is new? The present study is the largest analysis in literature which investigate how the main existing heart failure prognostic risk scores performed in a real-world of dilated cardiomyopathy population, both in- and outpatients. What are the clinical implications? DCM is a stand-alone model of heart failure, where the performance of multiple heart failure prognostic scores for the risk stratification is quite limited. The need for contemporary, dedicated prognostic scores in this disease is increasingly evident.

Prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing repetition during follow-up of clinically stable patients with severe dilated cardiomyopathy. A preliminary study

BACKGROUND

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a recognized tool for prognostic stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Given the lack of data currently available, the aim of this study was to test the prognostic value of repeating CPET during the follow-up of patients with DCM.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective study, analyzed DCM patients who consecutively performed two echocardiographies and CPETs during clinical stability. The study end-point was a composite of death from all causes, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias or hospitalization for heart failure.

RESULTS

216 DCM patients were enrolled (52 years, 78% male, NYHA I-II 82%, LVEF 32%, 94% on ACE inhibitors/ARNI, 95% on beta-blockers). The interval between CPETs was 15 months. During a median follow-up of 38 months from the second CPET, 102 (47%) patients experienced the study end-point. Among them, there was stability of echocardiographic values but a significant worsening of functional capacity. Among the 173 patients (80%) who did not show echocardiographic left ventricular reverse remodeling (LVRR), the 1-year prevalence of the study-end point was higher in patients who worsened vs patients who maintained stable their functional capacity at CPET (38 vs. 15% respectively, p-value: 0.001). These results were consistent also when excluding life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias from the composite end-point.

CONCLUSION

In clinically stable DCM patients with important depression of LVEF, the repetition of combined echocardiography and CPET might be recommended. When LVRR fails, 1-year repetition of CPET could identify higher-risk patients.

LDL Cholesterol Variability Impacts the Prognosis of Patients with Chronic Ischemic Heart Disease: A Real-World Italian Experience

Epidemiologic, genetic, and clinical intervention studies have indisputably shown that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is causal in the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, LDL-C variability could be related to increased ASCVD risk in patients already treated with statins. The aim of the present retrospective real-life study was to assess the prognostic impact of LDL-C variability on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations in patients with stable cardiovascular artery disease. A total of 3398 patients were enrolled and followed up for a median of 56 months. Considering LDL-C < 70 mg/dL as the therapeutical target, during follow-up, the percentage of patients who achieved this goal raised from 20.7% to 31.9%. In total, 1988 events were recorded, of which 428 were all-cause deaths and 1560 were cardiovascular hospitalizations. At the last medical examination, each increase in LDL-C levels of 20 mg/dL corresponded to a 6% raise in the risk of any event (HR 1.06; 95%CI, 1.03 to 1.09). In conclusion, our real-world study supports the hypothesis that a continuous and progressive downward trend in LDL-C levels is needed to achieve and maintain a cardiovascular benefit, at least in secondary prevention.

Comparison of discrimination and calibration performance of ECG-based machine learning models for prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) methods to build prediction models starting from electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are an emerging research field. The aim of the present study is to investigate the performances of two ML approaches based on ECGs for the prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), in terms of discrimination, calibration and sample size dependence.

METHODS

We trained two models to predict new-onset AF: a convolutional neural network (CNN), that takes as input the raw ECG signals, and an eXtreme Gradient Boosting model (XGB), that uses the signal's extracted features. A penalized logistic regression model (LR) was used as a benchmark. Discrimination was evaluated with the area under the ROC curve, while calibration with the integrated calibration index. We investigated the dependence of models' performances on the sample size and on class imbalance corrections introduced with random under-sampling.

RESULTS

CNN's discrimination was the most affected by the sample size, outperforming XGB and LR only around n = 10.000 observations. Calibration showed only a small dependence on the sample size for all the models considered. Balancing the training set with random undersampling did not improve discrimination in any of the models. Instead, the main effect of imbalance corrections was to worsen the models' calibration (for CNN, integrated calibration index from 0.014 [0.01, 0.018] to 0.17 [0.16, 0.19]). The sample size emerged as a fundamental point for developing the CNN model, especially in terms of discrimination (AUC = 0.75 [0.73, 0.77] when n = 10.000, AUC = 0.80 [0.79, 0.81] when n = 150.000). The effect of the sample size on the other two models was weaker. Imbalance corrections led to poorly calibrated models, for all the approaches considered, reducing the clinical utility of the models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the choice of approach in the analysis of ECG should be based on the amount of data available, preferring more standard models for small datasets. Moreover, imbalance correction methods should be avoided when developing clinical prediction models, where calibration is crucial.

Association of Tricuspid Regurgitation With Outcome in Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is common in chronic heart failure (HF) and is associated with negative prognosis. However, evidence on prognostic implications of TR in acute HF is lacking. We sought to investigate the association between TR and mortality and the interaction with pulmonary hypertension (PH) in patients admitted for acute HF.

METHODS

We enrolled 1176 consecutive patients with a primary diagnosis of acute HF and with available noninvasive estimation of TR and pulmonary arterial systolic pressure.

RESULTS

Moderate-severe TR was present in 352 patients (29.9%) and was associated with older age and more comorbidities. The prevalence of PH (ie, pulmonary arterial systolic pressure >40 mm Hg), right ventricular dysfunction, and mitral regurgitation was higher in moderate-severe TR. At 1 year, 184 (15.6%) patients died. Moderate-severe TR was associated with higher 1-year mortality risk after adjustment for other echocardiographic parameters (pulmonary arterial systolic pressure, left ventricle ejection fraction, right ventricular dysfunction, mitral regurgitation, left and right atrial indexed volumes; hazard ratio, 1.718; P=0.009), and the association with outcome was maintained when clinical variables (eg, natriuretic peptides, serum creatinine and urea, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation) were added to the multivariable model (hazard ratio, 1.761; P=0.024). The association between moderate-severe TR and outcome was consistent in patients with versus without PH, with versus without right ventricular dysfunction, and with versus without left ventricle ejection fraction <50%. Patients with coexistent moderate-severe TR and PH had 3-fold higher 1-year mortality risk compared with patients with no TR or PH (hazard ratio, 3.024; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients hospitalized for acute HF, the severity of TR is associated with 1-year survival, regardless of the presence of PH. The coexistence of moderate-severe TR and estimated PH was associated with a further increase in mortality risk. Our data must be interpreted in the context of potential underestimation of pulmonary arterial systolic pressure in patients with severe TR.

398 CARDIAC MAGNETIC RESONANCE PHENOTYPE AND GENOTYPE IN LEFT-SIDED CARDIOMYOPATHIES: CHARACTERIZATION AND CLINICAL OUTCOMES

Background

The combined prognostic role of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and genotype in cardiomyopathies has not been fully investigated. The aim of this study was to identify specific genotype-CMR phenotype correlations in a well-characterized cohort of patients with a spectrum of left-sided cardiomyopathies spanning from arrhythmogenic (ACM) to dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), and analyze patients’ outcome.

Methods and Results

One-hundred and seventy-four patients with DCM (127) and left sided ACM (47), who underwent a comprehensive evaluation including genetic testing and CMR imaging, were enrolled in this study. The phenotype was classified as DCM or ACM according to current consensus criteria. The primary outcome was a composite of sudden cardiac death/life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (SCD/MVA). DCM patients showed more frequently pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants of non-arrhythmic genes (34% vs. 7%, p &lt; 0.001), whereas ACM patients reported more frequently P/LP variants of arrhythmic genes (47% vs. 8%, p &lt; 0.001) and non-ischemic free-wall LGE (30% vs. 10%, p = 0.002). After a median follow-up of 92 months (interquartile range 46 - 168), 39 patients (22%) reached the combined endpoint. Carrying a P/LP variant of arrhythmic genes (hazard ratio (HR) 2.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 - 4.4, p = 0.024) along with presence of LGE (HR 4.5, 95% CI 1.99 - 11.5, p &lt; 0.001) were independently associated with the study endpoint.

Conclusion

In cohort of well-characterized left sided cardiomyopathies patients spanning from ACM to DCM, a P/LP variant of arrhythmic genes along with presence of LGE were independent predictors of SCD/MVA.

115 DIURETIC DOSE TRAJECTORIES IN DILATED CARDIOMYOPATHY: PROGNOSTIC IMPLICATIONS

Background

For patients with heart failure, prescription of loop diuretics (LD) and higher doses are associated with adverse prognosis. We investigated LD dose trajectories and their associations with outcomes in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).

Methods

Associations between outcomes and both furosemide equivalent dose (FED) at enrolment and change in FED in the subsequent 24 months were evaluated. According to FED trajectory, patients were divided in i) dose↑ (FED increase by ≥50% or newly initiated); ii) dose↓ (FED decrease by ≥50%); iii) stable dose (change in FED by &lt;50%); iv) never-users. Primary outcome was all-cause-death/heart transplantation/ventricular-assist-device/heart failure hospitalization. Secondary outcome was all-cause-death/heart transplantation/ventricular-assist-device.

Results

Of 1,131 patients enrolled, 738 (65%) were prescribed LD at baseline. Baseline FED was independently associated with outcome (HR per 20mg increase: 1.12 [95% CI 1.04-1.22, p=0.003]. Of the 908 with information on FED within 24 months from enrolment, 31% were never-users; 29% dose↓; 26% stable dose and 14% dose↑. In adjusted models, compared to never-users, stable dose had a higher risk of primary outcome (HR 2.42 [95% CI: 1.19-4.93], p=0.015), while dose↑ had the worst prognosis (HR 2.76 [95% C.I. 1.27-6.03], p=0.011). The results were consistent for the secondary outcome. Compared to patients who remained on LD, discontinuation of LD (143, 24%) was associated with improved outcome (HR 0.43 [95% C.I. 0.28-0.65], p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

In a large cohort of patients with DCM, LD use and increasing FED are powerful markers of adverse outcomes. Patients who never require LD have an excellent prognosis.

172 CLINICAL AND PROGNOSTIC IMPLICATIONS OF RV UPTAKE WITH RADIONUCLIDE SCINTIGRAPHY IN TRANSTHYRETIN CARDIAC AMYLOIDOSIS

Aims

The prognostic role of bone tracer uptake in transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CA) is controversial. The study investigated the potential prognostic significance of biventricular (BiV) uptake in ATTR-CA.

Methods

Consecutive ATTR-CA patients who had cardiac scintigraphy with acquisition of planar and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images from the National Amyloidosis Centre (NAC) and four Italian centres were included. Planar BiV uptake was defined in presence of right ventricle (RV) uptake and graded in combination with SPECT imaging. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

Results

Among 1422 patients with ATTR-CA, BiV uptake was found in 85% of cases on planar scintigraphy and in 100% of cases on SPECT images. During a median follow-up of 39 months, BiV uptake at planar scintigraphy was associated with a higher all-cause mortality compared to isolated LV uptake (40.5% vs 10.7%, p&lt;0.001), whereas the Perugini scale was not (p=0.27 in grade 2 vs 3). At multivariable analysis, RV uptake at planar scintigraphy leading to BiV uptake (HR 2.80, p=0.001), together with higher age at diagnosis (HR 1.03, p=0.001), V122I TTR variant (HR 1.60, p=0.001), NAC ATTR Stage (HR 1.29, p=0.003), E/e’ (HR 1.02, p=0.044), right atrium area index (HR 1.04, p=0.018) and GLS (HR 1.05, p=0.003) were independently associated with all-cause death. At time-dependent ROC curve analysis, the addition of planar BiV uptake to the NAC stage resulted in improved accuracy of the model for prediction of all-cause death (from AUC 0.74 to 0.79; p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

Planar RV uptake leading to BiV uptake identified ATTR-CA patients with worse outcome, potentially serving as a novel prognostic marker.

207 RE-DEFINING ARRHYTHMOGENIC CARDIOMYOPATHY: CHARACTERIZATION AND LONG-TERM PROGNOSTIC IMPLICATIONS

Background

Arrhythmogenic dilated cardiomyopathy (AR-DCM) combines phenotypical aspects of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), typical of the arrhythmogenic form (ACM). However, AR-DCM is often ambiguously defined leaving clinicians uncertain on how to identify these high-risk patients.

The aims of the study were to re-define AR-DCM based on outcome related arrhythmic markers and to test the usefulness of the novel AR-DCM definition in identifying arrhythmogenic genotypes (i.e., LMNA, FLNC, RBM20, and desmosomal genes).

Materials and methods

Consecutive DCM patients with genetic evaluation and Holter ECG monitoring or telemetry in two referral institution were analyzed. The arrhythmic markers tested to define AR-DCM were: SCD or major ventricular arrhythmias (MVA), unexplained syncope, rapid nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (nsTV), ≥1000 premature ventricular contractions/24 hours, or ≥50 ventricular couplets/24 hours. Patients were labeled as Early AR-DCM if criteria were met within 12 months from enrolment. The primary endpoint was a composite of SCD/MVA; the secondary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality/heart transplant/LVAD implantation (D/HTx/LVAD).

Results

Among the 743 DCM patients included, 290 had disease-related variants (39%), 94 (30%) of these carried arrhythmogenic genotype. Early AR-DCM was identified in 429 (58%) patients. During a median follow-up of 7.0 [2.2-13.8] years, among arrhythmic markers the occurrence of syncope and/or nsVT within 12 months from enrolment were the only arrhythmic markers independently associated with SCD/MVA (Figure), while the occurrence of early MVA and/or nsTV emerged as the strongest long-term predictors of D/ HTx/LVAD. Family history of MVA was also independently associated with primary and secondary endpoints, and together with MVA, nsTV or unexplained syncope increased the agreement between AR-DCM and arrhythmogenic genotypes in 1 out 2 patients.

Conclusions

A combination of early (i.e., within 1 year from diagnosis) MVA or nsVT or unexplained syncope might be proposed as a clinically useful new definition of AR-DCM, especially if associated to family history of MVA. This definition in fact allows clinicians to anticipates worse long-term arrhythmic and global outcomes, and to accurately identify malignant arrhythmogenic genotypes.

472 PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF CPET REPETITION DURING FOLLOW-UP OF DILATED CARDIOMYOPATHY

Background

although cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a recognized tool for prognostic stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), there are no data about the prognostic value of its repetition during follow-up in this setting. The aim of this study was to test the prognostic value of repeating CPET during follow-up, among a large cohort of DCM patients.

Methods

in this multicenter, retrospective study, we analyzed DCM patients who consecutively performed at least two CPET during a clinical stable phase of disease. All patients performed CPET and echocardiogram within 10 days. The study end-point was a composite of death from all causes, heart transplantation, implantation of durable left ventricular assist device, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias or hospitalization for HF.

Results

216 DCM patients were enrolled (52±12 years, 78% male, NYHA I-II 82%, LVEF 32±9%, 94% on ACE inhibitors, 95% on beta-blockers); the duration of the disease at the time of first CPET was 68 months. The interval between the two CPETs was 15 (11;23) months. During a median follow-up of 38 months from the second CPET, 108 (47%) patients went through the end-point. Time-dependent ROC curves revealed that to repeat during a follow-up of 12 months both CPET and echocardiogram gives a more accurate prognostic stratification than basal echocardiography + basal CPET. Despite an higher AUC (0.91 vs 0.85) there were no significant different accuracies (95% CI: 83.6 - 98 vs 75.5–96.5; p-value: 0.2) between the repetition of CPET plus echocardiogram vs. the repetition of the echocardiogram alone. Among patients who experienced the study outcome, there was a substantial stability of echocardiographic values (relative variation of LVEF +2.7%, LVEDV +1.3%) but a significant worsening of functional capacity (relative variation of percentage predicted VO2 peak +6%, p-value: 0.002). Conversely, there were a significant improvement in echocardiographic values and CPET values in events-free patients (LVEF relative variation -8.6% p-value: 0.002; ppVO2 peak relative variation -6.8%, p-value: 0.002).

Conclusion

in a large population of clinically stable DCM patients, the systematic repetition of echocardiography or both CPET and echocardiography showed no significant prognostic impact, in presence of stable or worsened echocardiogram. Nevertheless, when there is a clinical variation of symptoms or a failing in the reverse remodeling process, 1-year repetition of CPET can identify higher risk patients.

Using marginal structural joint models to estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment on recurrent events and survival: An application on arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy

In many clinical applications to evaluate the effect of a treatment, randomized control trials are difficult to carry out. On the other hand, clinical observational registries are often available and they contain longitudinal data regarding clinical parameters, drug therapies, and outcomes. In the past, much research has addressed causal methods to estimate treatment effects from observational studies. In the context of time-varying treatments, marginal structural models are often used. However, most analyses have focused on binary outcomes or time-to-the-first event analyses. The novelty of our approach is to combine the marginal structural methodology with the case where correlated recurrent events and survival are the outcomes of interest. Our work focuses on solving the nontrivial problem of defining the measures of effect, specifying the model for the time-dependent weights and the model to estimate the outcome, implementing them, and finally estimating the final treatment effects in this life-history setting. Our approach provides a strategy that allows obtaining treatment effect estimates both on the recurrent events and the survival with a clear causal and clinical interpretation. At the same time, the strategy we propose is based on flexible modeling choices such as the use of joint models to capture the correlation within events from the same subject and the specification of time-dependent treatment effects. The clinical problem which motivated our work is the evaluation of the treatment effect of beta-blockers in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC/D), and the dataset comes from the Trieste Heart Muscle Disease Registry.

Natural history and clinical parameters of chemotherapy-induced dilated cardiomyopathy

Background

Chemotherapy-induced dilated cardiomyopathy (CI-DCM) is a well-recognized phenotype of non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), characterized by poor outcomes. However, a detailed comparison between idiopathic DCM (iDCM) and CI-DCM is still lacking.

Methods

All consecutive DCM patients enrolled in the Trieste Muscle Heart Disease Registry were analyzed. CI-DCM and iDCM were defined according to current recommendations. The primary study outcome measure was all-mortality death and secondary outcomes were a) a composite of cardiovascular death/heart-transplantation/ventricular-assist-device implantation, and b) major ventricular arrhythmias.

Results

The study included 551 patients (499 iDCM and 52 CI-DCM). At enrolment, compared to iDCM, CI-DCM patients were older (51±14 years vs 58±3 years respectively, p&lt;0.001) and had a higher left ventricular ejection fraction (35%±10 vs 32%±9, p=0.03). Over a median follow-up of 90 months (IQR 54–140 months), CI-DCM patients had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared to iDCM (36.5% vs 8.4% in CI-DCM and iDCM respectively, p&lt;0.001), while the incidence of major ventricular arrhythmias was higher in the iDCM group compared to CI-DCM (4% vs 0%, in CI-DCM and iDCM respectively, p=0.03). The risk of the composite outcome was comparable between the two groups (p=0.91). At Cox multivariable analysis, the diagnosis of CI-DCM emerged as independently associated to primary outcome (HR 6.42, 95% CI 2.52–16.31, p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

In a well-selected DCM cohort, patients with a chemotherapy-induced aetiology had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared to iDCM. Conversely, the incidence of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmic events was higher among patients with iDCM.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Global longitudinal strain by CMR improves prognostic stratification in acute myocarditis presenting with normal LVEF

BACKGROUND

Prognostic stratification of acute myocarditis (AM) presenting with normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) relies mostly on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) characterization. Left ventricular peak global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS) measured by feature tracking analysis might improve prognostication of AM presenting with normal LVEF.

METHODS

Data of patients undergoing cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for clinically suspected AM in seven European Centres (2013-2020) were retrospectively analysed. Patients with AM confirmed by CMR and LVEF ≥50% were included. LGE was visually characterized: localized versus. non-localized, subepicardial versus midwall. LV-GLS was measured by dedicated software. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of an adverse cardiovascular event (ACE) including cardiac death, life-threatening arrhythmias, development of heart failure or of LVEF <50%.

RESULTS

Of 389 screened patients, 256 (66%) fulfilled inclusion criteria: median age 36 years, 71% males, median LVEF 60%, median LV-GLS -17.3%. CMR was performed at 4 days from hospitalization. At 27 months, 24 (9%) patients experienced ≥1 ACE (71% developed LVEF <50%). Compared to the others, they had lower median LV-GLS values (-13.9% vs. -17.5%, p = .001). At Kaplan-Meier analysis, impaired LV-GLS (both considered as > -20% or quartiles), non-localized and midwall LGE were associated with ACEs. Patients with LV-GLS ≤-20% did not experience ACEs. LV-GLS remained associated with ACEs after adjustment for non-localized and midwall LGE.

CONCLUSION

In AM presenting with LVEF ≥50%, LV-GLS provides independent prognostic value over LGE characterization, improving risk stratification and representing a rationale for further studies of therapy in this cohort.

Sex differences in natural history of cardiovascular magnetic resonance- and biopsy-proven lymphocytic myocarditis

AIMS

The role of sex in determining the profile and the outcomes of patients with myocarditis is largely unexplored. We evaluated the impact of sex as a modifier factor in the clinical characterization and natural history of patients with definite diagnosis of myocarditis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively analysed a single-centre cohort of consecutive patients with definite diagnosis of myocarditis (i.e. endomyocardial biopsy or cardiac magnetic resonance proven). Specific sub-analyses were performed in cohorts of patients with chest pain, ventricular arrhythmias, and heart failure as different main symptoms at presentation. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause mortality or heart transplantation (HTx). We included 312 patients, of which 211, 68% of the whole population, were males. Despite no clinically relevant differences found at baseline presentation, males had a higher indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume (62 ± 23 mL/m2 vs. 52 ± 20 mL/m2, P = 0.011 in males vs. females, respectively) at follow-up evaluation. At a median follow-up of 72 months, 36 (17%) males vs. 8 (8%) females experienced death or HTx (P = 0.033). Male sex emerged as predictors of all-cause mortality or HTx in every combination of covariates (HR 2.600; 1.163-5.809; P = 0.020). Results were agreeable regardless of the main symptom of presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large cohort of patients with definite diagnosis of myocarditis, females experienced a more favourable long-term prognosis than males, despite a similar clinical profile at presentation.

Clinical characterization and natural history of chemotherapy-induced dilated cardiomyopathy

AIMS

Chemotherapy-induced dilated cardiomyopathy (CI-DCM) is a well-recognized phenotype of non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), characterized by poor outcomes. However, a detailed comparison between idiopathic DCM (iDCM) and CI-DCM is still lacking.

METHODS AND RESULTS

All consecutive DCM patients enrolled in the Trieste Muscle Heart Disease Registry were analysed. CI-DCM and iDCM were defined according to current recommendations. The primary study outcome measure was all-mortality death and secondary outcomes were a) a composite of cardiovascular death/heart-transplantation/ventricular-assist-device implantation, and b) major ventricular arrhythmias. The study included 551 patients (499 iDCM and 52 CI-DCM). At enrolment, compared with iDCM, CI-DCM patients were older (51 ± 14 years vs. 58 ± 3 years, respectively, P < 0.001) and had a higher left ventricular ejection fraction (32% ± 9 vs. 35% ± 10, respectively, P = 0.03). Over a median follow-up of 90 months (IQR 54-140 months), CI-DCM patients had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared with iDCM (36.5% vs. 8.4% in CI-DCM and iDCM respectively, P < 0.001), while the incidence of major ventricular arrhythmias was higher in the iDCM group compared with CI-DCM (4% vs. 0%, in CI-DCM and iDCM respectively, P = 0.03). The risk of the composite outcome was comparable between the two groups (P = 0.91). At Cox multivariable analysis, the diagnosis of CI-DCM emerged as independently associated to primary outcome (HR 6.42, 95% C.I. 2.52-16.31, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In a well-selected DCM cohort, patients with a chemotherapy-induced aetiology had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared with iDCM. Conversely, the incidence of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmic events was higher among patients with iDCM.

P356 PREVALENCE AND PROGNOSTIC IMPACT OF LIPID GOAL ATTAINMENT AND PATIENT ADHERENCE TO LOWERING LIPID TREATMENT: DATA FROM COMMUNITY ITALIAN SETTING

Aims

The aim of the study was to provide real–world data on low–density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL–C) goal achievement at the time of current 2019 ESC/EAS Guidelines, treatment patterns and patient adherence to lowering lipid treatment (LLT).

Methods and Results

This community–based study identified patients with at least one LDL–C measurement and cardiological evaluation from 01–Jan–2016 to 31–Dec–2018. Patients risk stratification and LDL–C target achievement were assessed according to 2019 EAS/ESC guidelines. To identify the proportion of patients at LDL–C target, only patients with an available LDL–C evaluation after 1 year from baseline were considered (7317 patients, 51% of initial cohort 14317 pts). Of those, 492 pts (7%) presented LDL–C at target. Among them, 187 were at very high risk (4% of very high risk subgroup) and 47 at high risk (3% of high risk subgroup). Statin intolerance was reported in 7,5% of patients (1073 out of 14317). The adherence evaluation was performed in patients having 1–year of follow–up and at least one statin purchase. It was estimated through the Proportion of Days Covered (PDC), defining as adherent patients with a PDC value ≥ 75%. 8332 (58% of initial cohort 14317 pts) met the selection criteria for PDC calculation. Of those, 3346 (40%) patients resulted as adherent (46% and 22% in very high e high CV risk categories). In a multivariable Cox regression model, adjusted for age, sex, risk factors and comorbidities, patients adherence emerged as a protective factor (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.43–0.89; p = 0,010).

Conclusion

In a real–world setting, the achievement of LDL–C target and patient adherence was suboptimal across different CV risk categories. In a full adjusted survival model, patient adherence was independently associated with a prognosis improvement.