A singular value decomposition entropy approach to assess the impact of Covid-19 on the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil market

This work investigates the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on crude oil market efficiency. The approach is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) entropy. Iso-distributional surrogate data test was used to contrast the results against random patterns, and phase randomization based on Fourier transform was used to assess nonlinearities. The analysis considered the WTI market and focused on the Covid-19 pandemic period January 2020-November 2021 and contrasted with the long preceding period from January 2000 to date. It was found that the crude oil market was informationally efficient most of the time with small sporadic deviations from efficiency in the pre-Covid-19 years. The Covid-19 period exhibited the largest deviations from efficiency, mainly in the first months of the outbreak, accompanied by a marked reduction of nonlinear components. The analysis was conducted for different scales, and the results showed that the deviations from efficiency were more pronounced for quarterly scales. For the sake of comparison, the analysis was also carried out on the trading volume dynamics and the results showed that the market activity is not fully random. The dynamics of the trading volume exhibited significant deviations from the randomness behavior when the crude oil market was efficient, and a behavior that was consistent with nonlinear patterns. The opposite behavior was noted for stages when the crude oil market showed strong deviations from efficiency. Overall, the findings of this study suggest an increasing opportunity for crude oil price predictions and abnormal returns during the Covid-19 pandemic.

A fractal scaling analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence

An approach based on fractal scaling analysis to characterize the organization of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence was used. The method is based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) implemented on a sliding window scheme to detect variations of long-range correlations over the genome sequence regions. The nucleotides sequence is mapped in a numerical sequence by using four different assignation rules: amino-keto, purine-pyrimidine, hydrogen-bond and hydrophobicity patterns. The originally reported sequence from Wuhan isolates (Wuhan Hu-1) was considered as a reference to contrast the structure of the 2002-2004 SARS-CoV-1 strain. Long-range correlations, quantified in terms of a scaling exponent, depended on both the mapping rule and the sequence region. Deviations from randomness were attributed to serial correlations or anti-correlations, which can be ascribed to ordered regions of the genome sequence. It was found that the Wuhan Hu-1 sequence was more random than the SARS-CoV-1 sequence, which suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 possesses a more efficient genomic structure for replication and infection. In general, the virus isolated in the early 2020 months showed slight correlation differences with the Wuhan Hu-1 sequence. However, early isolates from India and Italy presented visible differences that led to a more ordered sequence organization. It is apparent that the increased sequence order, particularly in the spike region, endowed some early variants with a more efficient mechanism to spreading, replicating and infecting. Overall, the results showed that the DFA provides a suitable framework to assess long-term correlations hidden in the internal organization of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence.

Effects of dry heat treatment temperature on the structure of wheat flour and starch in vitro digestibility of bread

The effects of the dry heat treatment (DHT) temperature (20, 50, 100, 150, 200 °C) on the structure of wheat flour and on the texture and in vitro starch digestibility of breads were investigated. X-ray diffraction and FTIR showed that increasing temperatures produced reduction of the hydrated starch structures, increased crystallinity and molecular order of starch chains, and had important effects on the gluten secondary structure. High treatment temperatures produced significant reductions in rapidly digestible starch (RDS) (53.21% at 20 °C, 22.24% at 200 °C), and the slowly digestible starch fraction tended to increase (26.12% at 20 °C, 31.48% at 200 °C). On the other hand, bread hardness showed a significant increase from 11.25 N at 20 °C to 49.53 N at 200 °C, the latter value being similar to that reported for bread crusts. Principal component analysis results showed that the flour and bread characteristics were drastically changed by the DHT, with 100 °C representing a critical temperature. Below 100 °C, breads showed textural characteristics close to that of the control bread, with reduced RDS fractions, while at temperatures above 100 °C, hardness was boosted.