|
3
|
Raman B, McCracken C, Cassar MP, Moss AJ, Finnigan L, Samat AHA, Ogbole G, Tunnicliffe EM, Alfaro-Almagro F, Menke R, Xie C, Gleeson F, Lukaschuk E, Lamlum H, McGlynn K, Popescu IA, Sanders ZB, Saunders LC, Piechnik SK, Ferreira VM, Nikolaidou C, Rahman NM, Ho LP, Harris VC, Shikotra A, Singapuri A, Pfeffer P, Manisty C, Kon OM, Beggs M, O'Regan DP, Fuld J, Weir-McCall JR, Parekh D, Steeds R, Poinasamy K, Cuthbertson DJ, Kemp GJ, Semple MG, Horsley A, Miller CA, O'Brien C, Shah AM, Chiribiri A, Leavy OC, Richardson M, Elneima O, McAuley HJC, Sereno M, Saunders RM, Houchen-Wolloff L, Greening NJ, Bolton CE, Brown JS, Choudhury G, Diar Bakerly N, Easom N, Echevarria C, Marks M, Hurst JR, Jones MG, Wootton DG, Chalder T, Davies MJ, De Soyza A, Geddes JR, Greenhalf W, Howard LS, Jacob J, Man WDC, Openshaw PJM, Porter JC, Rowland MJ, Scott JT, Singh SJ, Thomas DC, Toshner M, Lewis KE, Heaney LG, Harrison EM, Kerr S, Docherty AB, Lone NI, Quint J, Sheikh A, Zheng B, Jenkins RG, Cox E, Francis S, Halling-Brown M, Chalmers JD, Greenwood JP, Plein S, Hughes PJC, Thompson AAR, Rowland-Jones SL, Wild JM, Kelly M, Treibel TA, Bandula S, Aul R, Miller K, Jezzard P, Smith S, Nichols TE, McCann GP, Evans RA, Wain LV, Brightling CE, Neubauer S, Baillie JK, Shaw A, Hairsine B, Kurasz C, Henson H, Armstrong L, Shenton L, Dobson H, Dell A, Lucey A, Price A, Storrie A, Pennington C, Price C, Mallison G, Willis G, Nassa H, Haworth J, Hoare M, Hawkings N, Fairbairn S, Young S, Walker S, Jarrold I, Sanderson A, David C, Chong-James K, Zongo O, James WY, Martineau A, King B, Armour C, McAulay D, Major E, McGinness J, McGarvey L, Magee N, Stone R, Drain S, Craig T, Bolger A, Haggar A, Lloyd A, Subbe C, Menzies D, Southern D, McIvor E, Roberts K, Manley R, Whitehead V, Saxon W, Bularga A, Mills NL, El-Taweel H, Dawson J, Robinson L, Saralaya D, Regan K, Storton K, Brear L, Amoils S, Bermperi A, Elmer A, Ribeiro C, Cruz I, Taylor J, Worsley J, Dempsey K, Watson L, Jose S, Marciniak S, Parkes M, McQueen A, Oliver C, Williams J, Paradowski K, Broad L, Knibbs L, Haynes M, Sabit R, Milligan L, Sampson C, Hancock A, Evenden C, Lynch C, Hancock K, Roche L, Rees M, Stroud N, Thomas-Woods T, Heller S, Robertson E, Young B, Wassall H, Babores M, Holland M, Keenan N, Shashaa S, Price C, Beranova E, Ramos H, Weston H, Deery J, Austin L, Solly R, Turney S, Cosier T, Hazelton T, Ralser M, Wilson A, Pearce L, Pugmire S, Stoker W, McCormick W, Dewar A, Arbane G, Kaltsakas G, Kerslake H, Rossdale J, Bisnauthsing K, Aguilar Jimenez LA, Martinez LM, Ostermann M, Magtoto MM, Hart N, Marino P, Betts S, Solano TS, Arias AM, Prabhu A, Reed A, Wrey Brown C, Griffin D, Bevan E, Martin J, Owen J, Alvarez Corral M, Williams N, Payne S, Storrar W, Layton A, Lawson C, Mills C, Featherstone J, Stephenson L, Burdett T, Ellis Y, Richards A, Wright C, Sykes DL, Brindle K, Drury K, Holdsworth L, Crooks MG, Atkin P, Flockton R, Thackray-Nocera S, Mohamed A, Taylor A, Perkins E, Ross G, McGuinness H, Tench H, Phipps J, Loosley R, Wolf-Roberts R, Coetzee S, Omar Z, Ross A, Card B, Carr C, King C, Wood C, Copeland D, Calvelo E, Chilvers ER, Russell E, Gordon H, Nunag JL, Schronce J, March K, Samuel K, Burden L, Evison L, McLeavey L, Orriss-Dib L, Tarusan L, Mariveles M, Roy M, Mohamed N, Simpson N, Yasmin N, Cullinan P, Daly P, Haq S, Moriera S, Fayzan T, Munawar U, Nwanguma U, Lingford-Hughes A, Altmann D, Johnston D, Mitchell J, Valabhji J, Price L, Molyneaux PL, Thwaites RS, Walsh S, Frankel A, Lightstone L, Wilkins M, Willicombe M, McAdoo S, Touyz R, Guerdette AM, Warwick K, Hewitt M, Reddy R, White S, McMahon A, Hoare A, Knighton A, Ramos A, Te A, Jolley CJ, Speranza F, Assefa-Kebede H, Peralta I, Breeze J, Shevket K, Powell N, Adeyemi O, Dulawan P, Adrego R, Byrne S, Patale S, Hayday A, Malim M, Pariante C, Sharpe C, Whitney J, Bramham K, Ismail K, Wessely S, Nicholson T, Ashworth A, Humphries A, Tan AL, Whittam B, Coupland C, Favager C, Peckham D, Wade E, Saalmink G, Clarke J, Glossop J, Murira J, Rangeley J, Woods J, Hall L, Dalton M, Window N, Beirne P, Hardy T, Coakley G, Turtle L, Berridge A, Cross A, Key AL, Rowe A, Allt AM, Mears C, Malein F, Madzamba G, Hardwick HE, Earley J, Hawkes J, Pratt J, Wyles J, Tripp KA, Hainey K, Allerton L, Lavelle-Langham L, Melling L, Wajero LO, Poll L, Noonan MJ, French N, Lewis-Burke N, Williams-Howard SA, Cooper S, Kaprowska S, Dobson SL, Marsh S, Highett V, Shaw V, Beadsworth M, Defres S, Watson E, Tiongson GF, Papineni P, Gurram S, Diwanji SN, Quaid S, Briggs A, Hastie C, Rogers N, Stensel D, Bishop L, McIvor K, Rivera-Ortega P, Al-Sheklly B, Avram C, Faluyi D, Blaikely J, Piper Hanley K, Radhakrishnan K, Buch M, Hanley NA, Odell N, Osbourne R, Stockdale S, Felton T, Gorsuch T, Hussell T, Kausar Z, Kabir T, McAllister-Williams H, Paddick S, Burn D, Ayoub A, Greenhalgh A, Sayer A, Young A, Price D, Burns G, MacGowan G, Fisher H, Tedd H, Simpson J, Jiwa K, Witham M, Hogarth P, West S, Wright S, McMahon MJ, Neill P, Dougherty A, Morrow A, Anderson D, Grieve D, Bayes H, Fallon K, Mangion K, Gilmour L, Basu N, Sykes R, Berry C, McInnes IB, Donaldson A, Sage EK, Barrett F, Welsh B, Bell M, Quigley J, Leitch K, Macliver L, Patel M, Hamil R, Deans A, Furniss J, Clohisey S, Elliott A, Solstice AR, Deas C, Tee C, Connell D, Sutherland D, George J, Mohammed S, Bunker J, Holmes K, Dipper A, Morley A, Arnold D, Adamali H, Welch H, Morrison L, Stadon L, Maskell N, Barratt S, Dunn S, Waterson S, Jayaraman B, Light T, Selby N, Hosseini A, Shaw K, Almeida P, Needham R, Thomas AK, Matthews L, Gupta A, Nikolaidis A, Dupont C, Bonnington J, Chrystal M, Greenhaff PL, Linford S, Prosper S, Jang W, Alamoudi A, Bloss A, Megson C, Nicoll D, Fraser E, Pacpaco E, Conneh F, Ogg G, McShane H, Koychev I, Chen J, Pimm J, Ainsworth M, Pavlides M, Sharpe M, Havinden-Williams M, Petousi N, Talbot N, Carter P, Kurupati P, Dong T, Peng Y, Burns A, Kanellakis N, Korszun A, Connolly B, Busby J, Peto T, Patel B, Nolan CM, Cristiano D, Walsh JA, Liyanage K, Gummadi M, Dormand N, Polgar O, George P, Barker RE, Patel S, Price L, Gibbons M, Matila D, Jarvis H, Lim L, Olaosebikan O, Ahmad S, Brill S, Mandal S, Laing C, Michael A, Reddy A, Johnson C, Baxendale H, Parfrey H, Mackie J, Newman J, Pack J, Parmar J, Paques K, Garner L, Harvey A, Summersgill C, Holgate D, Hardy E, Oxton J, Pendlebury J, McMorrow L, Mairs N, Majeed N, Dark P, Ugwuoke R, Knight S, Whittaker S, Strong-Sheldrake S, Matimba-Mupaya W, Chowienczyk P, Pattenadk D, Hurditch E, Chan F, Carborn H, Foot H, Bagshaw J, Hockridge J, Sidebottom J, Lee JH, Birchall K, Turner K, Haslam L, Holt L, Milner L, Begum M, Marshall M, Steele N, Tinker N, Ravencroft P, Butcher R, Misra S, Walker S, Coburn Z, Fairman A, Ford A, Holbourn A, Howell A, Lawrie A, Lye A, Mbuyisa A, Zawia A, Holroyd-Hind B, Thamu B, Clark C, Jarman C, Norman C, Roddis C, Foote D, Lee E, Ilyas F, Stephens G, Newell H, Turton H, Macharia I, Wilson I, Cole J, McNeill J, Meiring J, Rodger J, Watson J, Chapman K, Harrington K, Chetham L, Hesselden L, Nwafor L, Dixon M, Plowright M, Wade P, Gregory R, Lenagh R, Stimpson R, Megson S, Newman T, Cheng Y, Goodwin C, Heeley C, Sissons D, Sowter D, Gregory H, Wynter I, Hutchinson J, Kirk J, Bennett K, Slack K, Allsop L, Holloway L, Flynn M, Gill M, Greatorex M, Holmes M, Buckley P, Shelton S, Turner S, Sewell TA, Whitworth V, Lovegrove W, Tomlinson J, Warburton L, Painter S, Vickers C, Redwood D, Tilley J, Palmer S, Wainwright T, Breen G, Hotopf M, Dunleavy A, Teixeira J, Ali M, Mencias M, Msimanga N, Siddique S, Samakomva T, Tavoukjian V, Forton D, Ahmed R, Cook A, Thaivalappil F, Connor L, Rees T, McNarry M, Williams N, McCormick J, McIntosh J, Vere J, Coulding M, Kilroy S, Turner V, Butt AT, Savill H, Fraile E, Ugoji J, Landers G, Lota H, Portukhay S, Nasseri M, Daniels A, Hormis A, Ingham J, Zeidan L, Osborne L, Chablani M, Banerjee A, David A, Pakzad A, Rangelov B, Williams B, Denneny E, Willoughby J, Xu M, Mehta P, Batterham R, Bell R, Aslani S, Lilaonitkul W, Checkley A, Bang D, Basire D, Lomas D, Wall E, Plant H, Roy K, Heightman M, Lipman M, Merida Morillas M, Ahwireng N, Chambers RC, Jastrub R, Logan S, Hillman T, Botkai A, Casey A, Neal A, Newton-Cox A, Cooper B, Atkin C, McGee C, Welch C, Wilson D, Sapey E, Qureshi H, Hazeldine J, Lord JM, Nyaboko J, Short J, Stockley J, Dasgin J, Draxlbauer K, Isaacs K, Mcgee K, Yip KP, Ratcliffe L, Bates M, Ventura M, Ahmad Haider N, Gautam N, Baggott R, Holden S, Madathil S, Walder S, Yasmin S, Hiwot T, Jackson T, Soulsby T, Kamwa V, Peterkin Z, Suleiman Z, Chaudhuri N, Wheeler H, Djukanovic R, Samuel R, Sass T, Wallis T, Marshall B, Childs C, Marouzet E, Harvey M, Fletcher S, Dickens C, Beckett P, Nanda U, Daynes E, Charalambou A, Yousuf AJ, Lea A, Prickett A, Gooptu B, Hargadon B, Bourne C, Christie C, Edwardson C, Lee D, Baldry E, Stringer E, Woodhead F, Mills G, Arnold H, Aung H, Qureshi IN, Finch J, Skeemer J, Hadley K, Khunti K, Carr L, Ingram L, Aljaroof M, Bakali M, Bakau M, Baldwin M, Bourne M, Pareek M, Soares M, Tobin M, Armstrong N, Brunskill N, Goodman N, Cairns P, Haldar P, McCourt P, Dowling R, Russell R, Diver S, Edwards S, Glover S, Parker S, Siddiqui S, Ward TJC, Mcnally T, Thornton T, Yates T, Ibrahim W, Monteiro W, Thickett D, Wilkinson D, Broome M, McArdle P, Upthegrove R, Wraith D, Langenberg C, Summers C, Bullmore E, Heeney JL, Schwaeble W, Sudlow CL, Adeloye D, Newby DE, Rudan I, Shankar-Hari M, Thorpe M, Pius R, Walmsley S, McGovern A, Ballard C, Allan L, Dennis J, Cavanagh J, Petrie J, O'Donnell K, Spears M, Sattar N, MacDonald S, Guthrie E, Henderson M, Guillen Guio B, Zhao B, Lawson C, Overton C, Taylor C, Tong C, Mukaetova-Ladinska E, Turner E, Pearl JE, Sargant J, Wormleighton J, Bingham M, Sharma M, Steiner M, Samani N, Novotny P, Free R, Allen RJ, Finney S, Terry S, Brugha T, Plekhanova T, McArdle A, Vinson B, Spencer LG, Reynolds W, Ashworth M, Deakin B, Chinoy H, Abel K, Harvie M, Stanel S, Rostron A, Coleman C, Baguley D, Hufton E, Khan F, Hall I, Stewart I, Fabbri L, Wright L, Kitterick P, Morriss R, Johnson S, Bates A, Antoniades C, Clark D, Bhui K, Channon KM, Motohashi K, Sigfrid L, Husain M, Webster M, Fu X, Li X, Kingham L, Klenerman P, Miiler K, Carson G, Simons G, Huneke N, Calder PC, Baldwin D, Bain S, Lasserson D, Daines L, Bright E, Stern M, Crisp P, Dharmagunawardena R, Reddington A, Wight A, Bailey L, Ashish A, Robinson E, Cooper J, Broadley A, Turnbull A, Brookes C, Sarginson C, Ionita D, Redfearn H, Elliott K, Barman L, Griffiths L, Guy Z, Gill R, Nathu R, Harris E, Moss P, Finnigan J, Saunders K, Saunders P, Kon S, Kon SS, O'Brien L, Shah K, Shah P, Richardson E, Brown V, Brown M, Brown J, Brown J, Brown A, Brown A, Brown M, Choudhury N, Jones S, Jones H, Jones L, Jones I, Jones G, Jones H, Jones D, Davies F, Davies E, Davies K, Davies G, Davies GA, Howard K, Porter J, Rowland J, Rowland A, Scott K, Singh S, Singh C, Thomas S, Thomas C, Lewis V, Lewis J, Lewis D, Harrison P, Francis C, Francis R, Hughes RA, Hughes J, Hughes AD, Thompson T, Kelly S, Smith D, Smith N, Smith A, Smith J, Smith L, Smith S, Evans T, Evans RI, Evans D, Evans R, Evans H, Evans J. Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study. THE LANCET. RESPIRATORY MEDICINE 2023; 11:1003-1019. [PMID: 37748493 PMCID: PMC7615263 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(23)00262-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/27/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. METHODS In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. FINDINGS Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. INTERPRETATION After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification. FUNDING UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.
Collapse
|
|
16
|
Evans RA, Leavy OC, Richardson M, Elneima O, McAuley HJC, Shikotra A, Singapuri A, Sereno M, Saunders RM, Harris VC, Houchen-Wolloff L, Aul R, Beirne P, Bolton CE, Brown JS, Choudhury G, Diar-Bakerly N, Easom N, Echevarria C, Fuld J, Hart N, Hurst J, Jones MG, Parekh D, Pfeffer P, Rahman NM, Rowland-Jones SL, Shah AM, Wootton DG, Chalder T, Davies MJ, De Soyza A, Geddes JR, Greenhalf W, Greening NJ, Heaney LG, Heller S, Howard LS, Jacob J, Jenkins RG, Lord JM, Man WDC, McCann GP, Neubauer S, Openshaw PJM, Porter JC, Rowland MJ, Scott JT, Semple MG, Singh SJ, Thomas DC, Toshner M, Lewis KE, Thwaites RS, Briggs A, Docherty AB, Kerr S, Lone NI, Quint J, Sheikh A, Thorpe M, Zheng B, Chalmers JD, Ho LP, Horsley A, Marks M, Poinasamy K, Raman B, Harrison EM, Wain LV, Brightling CE, Abel K, Adamali H, Adeloye D, Adeyemi O, Adrego R, Aguilar Jimenez LA, Ahmad S, Ahmad Haider N, Ahmed R, Ahwireng N, Ainsworth M, Al-Sheklly B, Alamoudi A, Ali M, Aljaroof M, All AM, Allan L, Allen RJ, Allerton L, Allsop L, Almeida P, Altmann D, Alvarez Corral M, Amoils S, Anderson D, Antoniades C, Arbane G, Arias A, Armour C, Armstrong L, Armstrong N, Arnold D, Arnold H, Ashish A, Ashworth A, Ashworth M, Aslani S, Assefa-Kebede H, Atkin C, Atkin P, Aung H, Austin L, Avram C, Ayoub A, Babores M, Baggott R, Bagshaw J, Baguley D, Bailey L, Baillie JK, Bain S, Bakali M, Bakau M, Baldry E, Baldwin D, Ballard C, Banerjee A, Bang B, Barker RE, Barman L, Barratt S, Barrett F, Basire D, Basu N, Bates M, Bates A, Batterham R, Baxendale H, Bayes H, Beadsworth M, Beckett P, Beggs M, Begum M, Bell D, Bell R, Bennett K, Beranova E, Bermperi A, Berridge A, Berry C, Betts S, Bevan E, Bhui K, Bingham M, Birchall K, Bishop L, Bisnauthsing K, Blaikely J, Bloss A, Bolger A, Bonnington J, Botkai A, Bourne C, Bourne M, Bramham K, Brear L, Breen G, Breeze J, Bright E, Brill S, Brindle K, Broad L, Broadley A, Brookes C, Broome M, Brown A, Brown A, Brown J, Brown J, Brown M, Brown M, Brown V, Brugha T, Brunskill N, Buch M, Buckley P, Bularga A, Bullmore E, Burden L, Burdett T, Burn D, Burns G, Burns A, Busby J, Butcher R, Butt A, Byrne S, Cairns P, Calder PC, Calvelo E, Carborn H, Card B, Carr C, Carr L, Carson G, Carter P, Casey A, Cassar M, Cavanagh J, Chablani M, Chambers RC, Chan F, Channon KM, Chapman K, Charalambou A, Chaudhuri N, Checkley A, Chen J, Cheng Y, Chetham L, Childs C, Chilvers ER, Chinoy H, Chiribiri A, Chong-James K, Choudhury N, Chowienczyk P, Christie C, Chrystal M, Clark D, Clark C, Clarke J, Clohisey S, Coakley G, Coburn Z, Coetzee S, Cole J, Coleman C, Conneh F, Connell D, Connolly B, Connor L, Cook A, Cooper B, Cooper J, Cooper S, Copeland D, Cosier T, Coulding M, Coupland C, Cox E, Craig T, Crisp P, Cristiano D, Crooks MG, Cross A, Cruz I, Cullinan P, Cuthbertson D, Daines L, Dalton M, Daly P, Daniels A, Dark P, Dasgin J, David A, David C, Davies E, Davies F, Davies G, Davies GA, Davies K, Dawson J, Daynes E, Deakin B, Deans A, Deas C, Deery J, Defres S, Dell A, Dempsey K, Denneny E, Dennis J, Dewar A, Dharmagunawardena R, Dickens C, Dipper A, Diver S, Diwanji SN, Dixon M, Djukanovic R, Dobson H, Dobson SL, Donaldson A, Dong T, Dormand N, Dougherty A, Dowling R, Drain S, Draxlbauer K, Drury K, Dulawan P, Dunleavy A, Dunn S, Earley J, Edwards S, Edwardson C, El-Taweel H, Elliott A, Elliott K, Ellis Y, Elmer A, Evans D, Evans H, Evans J, Evans R, Evans RI, Evans T, Evenden C, Evison L, Fabbri L, Fairbairn S, Fairman A, Fallon K, Faluyi D, Favager C, Fayzan T, Featherstone J, Felton T, Finch J, Finney S, Finnigan J, Finnigan L, Fisher H, Fletcher S, Flockton R, Flynn M, Foot H, Foote D, Ford A, Forton D, Fraile E, Francis C, Francis R, Francis S, Frankel A, Fraser E, Free R, French N, Fu X, Furniss J, Garner L, Gautam N, George J, George P, Gibbons M, Gill M, Gilmour L, Gleeson F, Glossop J, Glover S, Goodman N, Goodwin C, Gooptu B, Gordon H, Gorsuch T, Greatorex M, Greenhaff PL, Greenhalgh A, Greenwood J, Gregory H, Gregory R, Grieve D, Griffin D, Griffiths L, Guerdette AM, Guillen Guio B, Gummadi M, Gupta A, Gurram S, Guthrie E, Guy Z, H Henson H, Hadley K, Haggar A, Hainey K, Hairsine B, Haldar P, Hall I, Hall L, Halling-Brown M, Hamil R, Hancock A, Hancock K, Hanley NA, Haq S, Hardwick HE, Hardy E, Hardy T, Hargadon B, Harrington K, Harris E, Harrison P, Harvey A, Harvey M, Harvie M, Haslam L, Havinden-Williams M, Hawkes J, Hawkings N, Haworth J, Hayday A, Haynes M, Hazeldine J, Hazelton T, Heeley C, Heeney JL, Heightman M, Henderson M, Hesselden L, Hewitt M, Highett V, Hillman T, Hiwot T, Hoare A, Hoare M, Hockridge J, Hogarth P, Holbourn A, Holden S, Holdsworth L, Holgate D, Holland M, Holloway L, Holmes K, Holmes M, Holroyd-Hind B, Holt L, Hormis A, Hosseini A, Hotopf M, Howard K, Howell A, Hufton E, Hughes AD, Hughes J, Hughes R, Humphries A, Huneke N, Hurditch E, Husain M, Hussell T, Hutchinson J, Ibrahim W, Ilyas F, Ingham J, Ingram L, Ionita D, Isaacs K, Ismail K, Jackson T, James WY, Jarman C, Jarrold I, Jarvis H, Jastrub R, Jayaraman B, Jezzard P, Jiwa K, Johnson C, Johnson S, Johnston D, Jolley CJ, Jones D, Jones G, Jones H, Jones H, Jones I, Jones L, Jones S, Jose S, Kabir T, Kaltsakas G, Kamwa V, Kanellakis N, Kaprowska S, Kausar Z, Keenan N, Kelly S, Kemp G, Kerslake H, Key AL, Khan F, Khunti K, Kilroy S, King B, King C, Kingham L, Kirk J, Kitterick P, Klenerman P, Knibbs L, Knight S, Knighton A, Kon O, Kon S, Kon SS, Koprowska S, Korszun A, Koychev I, Kurasz C, Kurupati P, Laing C, Lamlum H, Landers G, Langenberg C, Lasserson D, Lavelle-Langham L, Lawrie A, Lawson C, Lawson C, Layton A, Lea A, Lee D, Lee JH, Lee E, Leitch K, Lenagh R, Lewis D, Lewis J, Lewis V, Lewis-Burke N, Li X, Light T, Lightstone L, Lilaonitkul W, Lim L, Linford S, Lingford-Hughes A, Lipman M, Liyanage K, Lloyd A, Logan S, Lomas D, Loosley R, Lota H, Lovegrove W, Lucey A, Lukaschuk E, Lye A, Lynch C, MacDonald S, MacGowan G, Macharia I, Mackie J, Macliver L, Madathil S, Madzamba G, Magee N, Magtoto MM, Mairs N, Majeed N, Major E, Malein F, Malim M, Mallison G, Mandal S, Mangion K, Manisty C, Manley R, March K, Marciniak S, Marino P, Mariveles M, Marouzet E, Marsh S, Marshall B, Marshall M, Martin J, Martineau A, Martinez LM, Maskell N, Matila D, Matimba-Mupaya W, Matthews L, Mbuyisa A, McAdoo S, Weir McCall J, McAllister-Williams H, McArdle A, McArdle P, McAulay D, McCormick J, McCormick W, McCourt P, McGarvey L, McGee C, Mcgee K, McGinness J, McGlynn K, McGovern A, McGuinness H, McInnes IB, McIntosh J, McIvor E, McIvor K, McLeavey L, McMahon A, McMahon MJ, McMorrow L, Mcnally T, McNarry M, McNeill J, McQueen A, McShane H, Mears C, Megson C, Megson S, Mehta P, Meiring J, Melling L, Mencias M, Menzies D, Merida Morillas M, Michael A, Milligan L, Miller C, Mills C, Mills NL, Milner L, Misra S, Mitchell J, Mohamed A, Mohamed N, Mohammed S, Molyneaux PL, Monteiro W, Moriera S, Morley A, Morrison L, Morriss R, Morrow A, Moss AJ, Moss P, Motohashi K, Msimanga N, Mukaetova-Ladinska E, Munawar U, Murira J, Nanda U, Nassa H, Nasseri M, Neal A, Needham R, Neill P, Newell H, Newman T, Newton-Cox A, Nicholson T, Nicoll D, Nolan CM, Noonan MJ, Norman C, Novotny P, Nunag J, Nwafor L, Nwanguma U, Nyaboko J, O'Donnell K, O'Brien C, O'Brien L, O'Regan D, Odell N, Ogg G, Olaosebikan O, Oliver C, Omar Z, Orriss-Dib L, Osborne L, Osbourne R, Ostermann M, Overton C, Owen J, Oxton J, Pack J, Pacpaco E, Paddick S, Painter S, Pakzad A, Palmer S, Papineni P, Paques K, Paradowski K, Pareek M, Parfrey H, Pariante C, Parker S, Parkes M, Parmar J, Patale S, Patel B, Patel M, Patel S, Pattenadk D, Pavlides M, Payne S, Pearce L, Pearl JE, Peckham D, Pendlebury J, Peng Y, Pennington C, Peralta I, Perkins E, Peterkin Z, Peto T, Petousi N, Petrie J, Phipps J, Pimm J, Piper Hanley K, Pius R, Plant H, Plein S, Plekhanova T, Plowright M, Polgar O, Poll L, Porter J, Portukhay S, Powell N, Prabhu A, Pratt J, Price A, Price C, Price C, Price D, Price L, Price L, Prickett A, Propescu J, Pugmire S, Quaid S, Quigley J, Qureshi H, Qureshi IN, Radhakrishnan K, Ralser M, Ramos A, Ramos H, Rangeley J, Rangelov B, Ratcliffe L, Ravencroft P, Reddington A, Reddy R, Redfearn H, Redwood D, Reed A, Rees M, Rees T, Regan K, Reynolds W, Ribeiro C, Richards A, Richardson E, Rivera-Ortega P, Roberts K, Robertson E, Robinson E, Robinson L, Roche L, Roddis C, Rodger J, Ross A, Ross G, Rossdale J, Rostron A, Rowe A, Rowland A, Rowland J, Roy K, Roy M, Rudan I, Russell R, Russell E, Saalmink G, Sabit R, Sage EK, Samakomva T, Samani N, Sampson C, Samuel K, Samuel R, Sanderson A, Sapey E, Saralaya D, Sargant J, Sarginson C, Sass T, Sattar N, Saunders K, Saunders P, Saunders LC, Savill H, Saxon W, Sayer A, Schronce J, Schwaeble W, Scott K, Selby N, Sewell TA, Shah K, Shah P, Shankar-Hari M, Sharma M, Sharpe C, Sharpe M, Shashaa S, Shaw A, Shaw K, Shaw V, Shelton S, Shenton L, Shevket K, Short J, Siddique S, Siddiqui S, Sidebottom J, Sigfrid L, Simons G, Simpson J, Simpson N, Singh C, Singh S, Sissons D, Skeemer J, Slack K, Smith A, Smith D, Smith S, Smith J, Smith L, Soares M, Solano TS, Solly R, Solstice AR, Soulsby T, Southern D, Sowter D, Spears M, Spencer LG, Speranza F, Stadon L, Stanel S, Steele N, Steiner M, Stensel D, Stephens G, Stephenson L, Stern M, Stewart I, Stimpson R, Stockdale S, Stockley J, Stoker W, Stone R, Storrar W, Storrie A, Storton K, Stringer E, Strong-Sheldrake S, Stroud N, Subbe C, Sudlow CL, Suleiman Z, Summers C, Summersgill C, Sutherland D, Sykes DL, Sykes R, Talbot N, Tan AL, Tarusan L, Tavoukjian V, Taylor A, Taylor C, Taylor J, Te A, Tedd H, Tee CJ, Teixeira J, Tench H, Terry S, Thackray-Nocera S, Thaivalappil F, Thamu B, Thickett D, Thomas C, Thomas S, Thomas AK, Thomas-Woods T, Thompson T, Thompson AAR, Thornton T, Tilley J, Tinker N, Tiongson GF, Tobin M, Tomlinson J, Tong C, Touyz R, Tripp KA, Tunnicliffe E, Turnbull A, Turner E, Turner S, Turner V, Turner K, Turney S, Turtle L, Turton H, Ugoji J, Ugwuoke R, Upthegrove R, Valabhji J, Ventura M, Vere J, Vickers C, Vinson B, Wade E, Wade P, Wainwright T, Wajero LO, Walder S, Walker S, Walker S, Wall E, Wallis T, Walmsley S, Walsh JA, Walsh S, Warburton L, Ward TJC, Warwick K, Wassall H, Waterson S, Watson E, Watson L, Watson J, Welch C, Welch H, Welsh B, Wessely S, West S, Weston H, Wheeler H, White S, Whitehead V, Whitney J, Whittaker S, Whittam B, Whitworth V, Wight A, Wild J, Wilkins M, Wilkinson D, Williams N, Williams N, Williams J, Williams-Howard SA, Willicombe M, Willis G, Willoughby J, Wilson A, Wilson D, Wilson I, Window N, Witham M, Wolf-Roberts R, Wood C, Woodhead F, Woods J, Wormleighton J, Worsley J, Wraith D, Wrey Brown C, Wright C, Wright L, Wright S, Wyles J, Wynter I, Xu M, Yasmin N, Yasmin S, Yates T, Yip KP, Young B, Young S, Young A, Yousuf AJ, Zawia A, Zeidan L, Zhao B, Zongo O. Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study. THE LANCET. RESPIRATORY MEDICINE 2022; 10:761-775. [PMID: 35472304 PMCID: PMC9034855 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00127-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 154] [Impact Index Per Article: 77.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2022] [Revised: 03/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge. METHODS The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing. FINDINGS 2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. INTERPRETATION The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials. FUNDING UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.
Collapse
|
|
17
|
Kouli O, Murray V, Bhatia S, Cambridge WA, Kawka M, Shafi S, Knight SR, Kamarajah SK, McLean KA, Glasbey JC, Khaw RA, Ahmed W, Akhbari M, Baker D, Borakati A, Mills E, Thavayogan R, Yasin I, Raubenheimer K, Ridley W, Sarrami M, Zhang G, Egoroff N, Pockney P, Richards T, Bhangu A, Creagh-Brown B, Edwards M, Harrison EM, Lee M, Nepogodiev D, Pinkney T, Pearse R, Smart N, Vohra R, Sohrabi C, Jamieson A, Nguyen M, Rahman A, English C, Tincknell L, Kakodkar P, Kwek I, Punjabi N, Burns J, Varghese S, Erotocritou M, McGuckin S, Vayalapra S, Dominguez E, Moneim J, Salehi M, Tan HL, Yoong A, Zhu L, Seale B, Nowinka Z, Patel N, Chrisp B, Harris J, Maleyko I, Muneeb F, Gough M, James CE, Skan O, Chowdhury A, Rebuffa N, Khan H, Down B, Fatimah Hussain Q, Adams M, Bailey A, Cullen G, Fu YXJ, McClement B, Taylor A, Aitken S, Bachelet B, Brousse de Gersigny J, Chang C, Khehra B, Lahoud N, Lee Solano M, Louca M, Rozenbroek P, Rozitis E, Agbinya N, Anderson E, Arwi G, Barry I, Batchelor C, Chong T, Choo LY, Clark L, Daniels M, Goh J, Handa A, Hanna J, Huynh L, Jeon A, Kanbour A, Lee A, Lee J, Lee T, Leigh J, Ly D, McGregor F, Moss J, Nejatian M, O'Loughlin E, Ramos I, Sanchez B, Shrivathsa A, Sincari A, Sobhi S, Swart R, Trimboli J, Wignall P, Bourke E, Chong A, Clayton S, Dawson A, Hardy E, Iqbal R, Le L, Mao S, Marinelli I, Metcalfe H, Panicker D, R HH, Ridgway S, Tan HH, Thong S, Van M, Woon S, Woon-Shoo-Tong XS, Yu S, Ali K, Chee J, Chiu C, Chow YW, Duller A, Nagappan P, Ng S, Selvanathan M, Sheridan C, Temple M, Do JE, Dudi-Venkata NN, Humphries E, Li L, Mansour LT, Massy-Westropp C, Fang B, Farbood K, Hong H, Huang Y, Joan M, Koh C, Liu YHA, Mahajan T, Muller E, Park R, Tanudisastro M, Wu JJG, Chopra P, Giang S, Radcliffe S, Thach P, Wallace D, Wilkes A, Chinta SH, Li J, Phan J, Rahman F, Segaran A, Shannon J, Zhang M, Adams N, Bonte A, Choudhry A, Colterjohn N, Croyle JA, Donohue J, Feighery A, Keane A, McNamara D, Munir K, Roche D, Sabnani R, Seligman D, Sharma S, Stickney Z, Suchy H, Tan R, Yordi S, Ahmed I, Aranha M, El Sabawy D, Garwood P, Harnett M, Holohan R, Howard R, Kayyal Y, Krakoski N, Lupo M, McGilberry W, Nepon H, Scoleri Y, Urbina C, Ahmad Fuad MF, Ahmed O, Jaswantlal D, Kelly E, Khan MHT, Naidu D, Neo WX, O'Neill R, Sugrue M, Abbas JD, Abdul-Fattah S, Azlan A, Barry K, Idris NS, Kaka N, Mc Dermott D, Mohammad Nasir MN, Mozo M, Rehal A, Shaikh Yousef M, Wong RH, Curran E, Gardner M, Hogan A, Julka R, Lasser G, Ní Chorráin N, Ting J, Browne R, George S, Janjua Z, Leung Shing V, Megally M, Murphy S, Ravenscroft L, Vedadi A, Vyas V, Bryan A, Sheikh A, Ubhi J, Vannelli K, Vawda A, Adeusi L, Doherty C, Fitzgerald C, Gallagher H, Gill P, Hamza H, Hogan M, Kelly S, Larry J, Lynch P, Mazeni NA, O'Connell R, O'Loghlin R, Singh K, Abbas Syed R, Ali A, Alkandari B, Arnold A, Arora E, Azam R, Breathnach C, Cheema J, Compton M, Curran S, Elliott JA, Jayasamraj O, Mohammed N, Noone A, Pal A, Pandey S, Quinn P, Sheridan R, Siew L, Tan EP, Tio SW, Toh VTR, Walsh M, Yap C, Yassa J, Young T, Agarwal N, Almoosawy SA, Bowen K, Bruce D, Connachan R, Cook A, Daniell A, Elliott M, Fung HKF, Irving A, Laurie S, Lee YJ, Lim ZX, Maddineni S, McClenaghan RE, Muthuganesan V, Ravichandran P, Roberts N, Shaji S, Solt S, Toshney E, Arnold C, Baker O, Belais F, Bojanic C, Byrne M, Chau CYC, De Soysa S, Eldridge M, Fairey M, Fearnhead N, Guéroult A, Ho JSY, Joshi K, Kadiyala N, Khalid S, Khan F, Kumar K, Lewis E, Magee J, Manetta-Jones D, Mann S, McKeown L, Mitrofan C, Mohamed T, Monnickendam A, Ng AYKC, Ortu A, Patel M, Pope T, Pressling S, Purohit K, Saji S, Shah Foridi J, Shah R, Siddiqui SS, Surman K, Utukuri M, Varghese A, Williams CYK, Yang JJ, Billson E, Cheah E, Holmes P, Hussain S, Murdock D, Nicholls A, Patel P, Ramana G, Saleki M, Spence H, Thomas D, Yu C, Abousamra M, Brown C, Conti I, Donnelly A, Durand M, French N, Goan R, O'Kane E, Rubinchik P, Gardiner H, Kempf B, Lai YL, Matthews H, Minford E, Rafferty C, Reid C, Sheridan N, Al Bahri T, Bhoombla N, Rao BM, Titu L, Chatha S, Field C, Gandhi T, Gulati R, Jha R, Jones Sam MT, Karim S, Patel R, Saunders M, Sharma K, Abid S, Heath E, Kurup D, Patel A, Ali M, Cresswell B, Felstead D, Jennings K, Kaluarachchi T, Lazzereschi L, Mayson H, Miah JE, Reinders B, Rosser A, Thomas C, Williams H, Al-Hamid Z, Alsadoun L, Chlubek M, Fernando P, Gaunt E, Gercek Y, Maniar R, Ma R, Matson M, Moore S, Morris A, Nagappan PG, Ratnayake M, Rockall L, Shallcross O, Sinha A, Tan KE, Virdee S, Wenlock R, Donnelly HA, Ghazal R, Hughes I, Liu X, McFadden M, Misbert E, Mogey P, O'Hara A, Peace C, Rainey C, Raja P, Salem M, Salmon J, Tan CH, Alves D, Bahl S, Baker C, Coulthurst J, Koysombat K, Linn T, Rai P, Sharma A, Shergill A, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Belk LH, Choudhry H, Cummings D, Dixon Y, Dobinson C, Edwards J, Flint J, Franco Da Silva C, Gallie R, Gardener M, Glover T, Greasley M, Hatab A, Howells R, Hussey T, Khan A, Mann A, Morrison H, Ng A, Osmond R, Padmakumar N, Pervaiz F, Prince R, Qureshi A, Sawhney R, Sigurdson B, Stephenson L, Vora K, Zacken A, Cope P, Di Traglia R, Ferarrio I, Hackett N, Healicon R, Horseman L, Lam LI, Meerdink M, Menham D, Murphy R, Nimmo I, Ramaesh A, Rees J, Soame R, Dilaver N, Adebambo D, Brown E, Burt J, Foster K, Kaliyappan L, Knight P, Politis A, Richardson E, Townsend J, Abdi M, Ball M, Easby S, Gill N, Ho E, Iqbal H, Matthews M, Nubi S, Nwokocha JO, Okafor I, Perry G, Sinartio B, Vanukuru N, Walkley D, Welch T, Yates J, Yeshitila N, Bryans K, Campbell B, Gray C, Keys R, Macartney M, Chamberlain G, Khatri A, Kucheria A, Lee STP, Reese G, Roy choudhury J, Tan WYR, Teh JJ, Ting A, Kazi S, Kontovounisios C, Vutipongsatorn K, Amarnath T, Balasubramanian N, Bassett E, Gurung P, Lim J, Panjikkaran A, Sanalla A, Alkoot M, Bacigalupo V, Eardley N, Horton M, Hurry A, Isti C, Maskell P, Nursiah K, Punn G, Salih H, Epanomeritakis E, Foulkes A, Henderson R, Johnston E, McCullough H, McLarnon M, Morrison E, Cheung A, Cho SH, Eriksson F, Hedges J, Low Z, May C, Musto L, Nagi S, Nur S, Salau E, Shabbir S, Thomas MC, Uthayanan L, Vig S, Zaheer M, Zeng G, Ashcroft-Quinn S, Brown R, Hayes J, McConville R, French R, Gilliam A, Sheetal S, Shehzad MU, Bani W, Christie I, Franklyn J, Khan M, Russell J, Smolarek S, Varadarassou R, Ahmed SK, Narayanaswamy S, Sealy J, Shah M, Dodhia V, Manukyan A, O'Hare R, Orbell J, Chung I, Forenc K, Gupta A, Agarwal A, Al Dabbagh A, Bennewith R, Bottomley J, Chu TSM, Chu YYA, Doherty W, Evans B, Hainsworth P, Hosfield T, Li CH, McCullagh I, Mehta A, Thaker A, Thompson B, Virdi A, Walker H, Wilkins E, Dixon C, Hassan MR, Lotca N, Tong KS, Batchelor-Parry H, Chaudhari S, Harris T, Hooper J, Johnson C, Mulvihill C, Nayler J, Olutobi O, Piramanayagam B, Stones K, Sussman M, Weaver C, Alam F, Al Rawi M, Andrew F, Arrayeh A, Azizan N, Hassan A, Iqbal Z, John I, Jones M, Kalake O, Keast M, Nicholas J, Patil A, Powell K, Roberts P, Sabri A, Segue AK, Shah A, Shaik Mohamed SA, Shehadeh A, Shenoy S, Tong A, Upcott M, Vijayasingam D, Anarfi S, Dauncey J, Devindaran A, Havalda P, Komninos G, Mwendwa E, Norman C, Richards J, Urquhart A, Allan J, Cahya E, Hunt H, McWhirter C, Norton R, Roxburgh C, Tan JY, Ali Butt S, Hansdot S, Haq I, Mootien A, Sanchez I, Vainas T, Deliyannis E, Tan M, Vipond M, Chittoor Satish NN, Dattani A, De Carvalho L, Gaston-Grubb M, Karunanithy L, Lowe B, Pace C, Raju K, Roope J, Taylor C, Youssef H, Munro T, Thorn C, Wong KHF, Yunus A, Chawla S, Datta A, Dinesh AA, Field D, Georgi T, Gwozdz A, Hamstead E, Howard N, Isleyen N, Jackson N, Kingdon J, Sagoo KS, Schizas A, Yin L, Aung E, Aung YY, Franklin S, Han SM, Kim WC, Martin Segura A, Rossi M, Ross T, Tirimanna R, Wang B, Zakieh O, Ben-Arzi H, Flach A, Jackson E, Magers S, Olu abara C, Rogers E, Sugden K, Tan H, Veliah S, Walton U, Asif A, Bharwada Y, Bowley D, Broekhuizen A, Cooper L, Evans N, Girdlestone H, Ling C, Mann H, Mehmood N, Mulvenna CL, Rainer N, Trout I, Gujjuri R, Jeyaraman D, Leong E, Singh D, Smith E, Anderton J, Barabas M, Goyal S, Howard D, Joshi A, Mitchell D, Weatherby T, Badminton R, Bird R, Burtle D, Choi NY, Devalia K, Farr E, Fischer F, Fish J, Gunn F, Jacobs D, Johnston P, Kalakoutas A, Lau E, Loo YNAF, Louden H, Makariou N, Mohammadi K, Nayab Y, Ruhomaun S, Ryliskyte R, Saeed M, Shinde P, Sudul M, Theodoropoulou K, Valadao-Spoorenberg J, Vlachou F, Arshad SR, Janmohamed AM, Noor M, Oyerinde O, Saha A, Syed Y, Watkinson W, Ahmadi H, Akintunde A, Alsaady A, Bradley J, Brothwood D, Burton M, Higgs M, Hoyle C, Katsura C, Lathan R, Louani A, Mandalia R, Prihartadi AS, Qaddoura B, Sandland-Taylor L, Thadani S, Thompson A, Walshaw J, Teo S, Ali S, Bawa JH, Fox S, Gargan K, Haider SA, Hanna N, Hatoum A, Khan Z, Krzak AM, Li T, Pitt J, Tan GJS, Ullah Z, Wilson E, Cleaver J, Colman J, Copeland L, Coulson A, Davis P, Faisal H, Hassan F, Hughes JT, Jabr Y, Mahmoud Ali F, Nahaboo Solim ZN, Sangheli A, Shaya S, Thompson R, Cornwall H, De Andres Crespo M, Fay E, Findlay J, Groves E, Jones O, Killen A, Millo J, Thomas S, Ward J, Wilkins M, Zaki F, Zilber E, Bhavra K, Bilolikar A, Charalambous M, Elawad A, Eleni A, Fawdon R, Gibbins A, Livingstone D, Mala D, Oke SE, Padmakumar D, Patsalides MA, Payne D, Ralphs C, Roney A, Sardar N, Stefanova K, Surti F, Timms R, Tosney G, Bannister J, Clement NS, Cullimore V, Kamal F, Lendor J, McKay J, Mcswiggan J, Minhas N, Seneviratne K, Simeen S, Valverde J, Watson N, Bloom I, Dinh TH, Hirniak J, Joseph R, Kansagra M, Lai CKN, Melamed N, Patel J, Randev J, Sedighi T, Shurovi B, Sodhi J, Vadgama N, Abdulla S, Adabavazeh B, Champion A, Chennupati R, Chu K, Devi S, Haji A, Schulz J, Testa F, Davies P, Gurung B, Howell S, Modi P, Pervaiz A, Zahid M, Abdolrazaghi S, Abi Aoun R, Anjum Z, Bawa G, Bhardwaj R, Brown S, Enver M, Gill D, Gopikrishna D, Gurung D, Kanwal A, Kaushal P, Khanna A, Lovell E, McEvoy C, Mirza M, Nabeel S, Naseem S, Pandya K, Perkins R, Pulakal R, Ray M, Reay C, Reilly S, Round A, Seehra J, Shakeel NM, Singh B, Vijay Sukhnani M, Brown L, Desai B, Elzanati H, Godhaniya J, Kavanagh E, Kent J, Kishor A, Liu A, Norwood M, Shaari N, Wood C, Wood M, Brown A, Chellapuri A, Ferriman A, Ghosh I, Kulkarni N, Noton T, Pinto A, Rajesh S, Varghese B, Wenban C, Aly R, Barciela C, Brookes T, Corrin E, Goldsworthy M, Mohamed Azhar MS, Moore J, Nakhuda S, Ng D, Pillay S, Port S, Abdullah M, Akinyemi J, Islam S, Kale A, Lewis A, Manjunath T, McCabe H, Misra S, Stubley T, Tam JP, Waraich N, Chaora T, Ford C, Osinkolu I, Pong G, Rai J, Risquet R, Ainsworth J, Ayandokun P, Barham E, Barrett G, Barry J, Bisson E, Bridges I, Burke D, Cann J, Cloney M, Coates S, Cripps P, Davies C, Francis N, Green S, Handley G, Hathaway D, Hurt L, Jenkins S, Johnston C, Khadka A, McGee U, Morris D, Murray R, Norbury C, Pierrepont Z, Richards C, Ross O, Ruddy A, Salmon C, Shield M, Soanes K, Spencer N, Taverner S, Williams C, Wills-Wood W, Woodward S, Chow J, Fan J, Guest O, Hunter I, Moon WY, Arthur-Quarm S, Edwards P, Hamlyn V, McEneaney L, N D G, Pranoy S, Ting M, Abada S, Alawattegama LH, Ashok A, Carey C, Gogna A, Haglund C, Hurley P, Leelo N, Liu B, Mannan F, Paramjothy K, Ramlogan K, Raymond-Hayling O, Shanmugarajah A, Solichan D, Wilkinson B, Ahmad NA, Allan D, Amin A, Bakina C, Burns F, Cameron F, Campbell A, Cavanagh S, Chan SMZ, Chapman S, Chong V, Edelsten E, Ekpete O, El Sheikh M, Ghose R, Hassane A, Henderson C, Hilton-Christie S, Husain M, Hussain H, Javid Z, Johnson-Ogbuneke J, Johnston A, Khalil M, Leung TCC, Makin I, Muralidharan V, Naeem M, Patil P, Ravichandran S, Saraeva D, Shankey-Smith W, Sharma N, Swan R, Waudby-West R, Wilkinson A, Wright K, Balasubramanian A, Bhatti S, Chalkley M, Chou WK, Dixon M, Evans L, Fisher K, Gandhi P, Ho S, Lau YB, Lowe S, Meechan C, Murali N, Musonda C, Njoku P, Ochieng L, Pervez MU, Seebah K, Shaikh I, Sikder MA, Vanker R, Alom J, Bajaj V, Coleman O, Finch G, Goss J, Jenkins C, Kontothanassis A, Liew MS, Ng K, Outram M, Shakeel MM, Tawn J, Zuhairy S, Chapple K, Cinnamond A, Coleman S, George HA, Goulder L, Hare N, Hawksley J, Kret A, Luesley A, Mecia L, Porter H, Puddy E, Richardson G, Sohail B, Srikaran V, Tadross D, Tobin J, Tokidis E, Young L, Ashdown T, Bratsos S, Koomson A, Kufuor A, Lim MQ, Shah S, Thorne EPC, Warusavitarne J, Xu S, Abigail S, Ahmed A, Ahmed J, Akmal A, Al-Khafaji M, Amini B, Arshad M, Bogie E, Brazkiewicz M, Carroll M, Chandegra A, Cirelli C, Deng A, Fairclough S, Fung YJ, Gornell C, Green RL, Green SV, Gulamhussein AHM, Isaac AG, Jan R, Jegatheeswaran L, Knee M, Kotecha J, Kotecha S, Maxwell-Armstrong C, McIntyre C, Mendis N, Naing TKP, Oberman J, Ong ZX, Ramalingam A, Saeed Adam A, Tan LL, Towell S, Yadav J, Anandampillai R, Chung S, Hounat A, Ibrahim B, Jeyakumar G, Khalil A, Khan UA, Nair G, Owusu-Ayim M, Wilson M, Kanani A, Kilkelly B, Ogunmwonyi I, Ong L, Samra B, Schomerus L, Shea J, Turner O, Yang Y, Amin M, Blott N, Clark A, Feather A, Forrest M, Hague S, Hamilton K, Higginbotham G, Hope E, Karimian S, Loveday K, Malik H, McKenna O, Noor A, Onsiong C, Patel B, Radcliffe N, Shah P, Tye L, Verma K, Walford R, Yusufi U, Zachariah M, Casey A, Doré C, Fludder V, Fortescue L, Kalapu SS, Karel E, Khera G, Smith C, Appleton B, Ashaye A, Boggon E, Evans A, Faris Mahmood H, Hinchcliffe Z, Marei O, Silva I, Spooner C, Thomas G, Timlin M, Wellington J, Yao SL, Abdelrazek M, Abdelrazik Y, Bee F, Joseph A, Mounce A, Parry G, Vignarajah N, Biddles D, Creissen A, Kolhe S, K T, Lea A, Ledda V, O'Loughlin P, Scanlon J, Shetty N, Weller C, Abdalla M, Adeoye A, Bhatti M, Chadda KR, Chu J, Elhakim H, Foster-Davies H, Rabie M, Tailor B, Webb S, Abdelrahim ASA, Choo SY, Jiwa A, Mangam S, Murray S, Shandramohan A, Aghanenu O, Budd W, Hayre J, Khanom S, Liew ZY, McKinney R, Moody N, Muhammad-Kamal H, Odogwu J, Patel D, Roy C, Sattar Z, Shahrokhi N, Sinha I, Thomson E, Wonga L, Bain J, Khan J, Ricardo D, Bevis R, Cherry C, Darkwa S, Drew W, Griffiths E, Konda N, Madani D, Mak JKC, Meda B, Odunukwe U, Preest G, Raheel F, Rajaseharan A, Ramgopal A, Risbrooke C, Selvaratnam K, Sethunath G, Tabassum R, Taylor J, Thakker A, Wijesingha N, Wybrew R, Yasin T, Ahmed Osman A, Alfadhel S, Carberry E, Chen JY, Drake I, Glen P, Jayasuriya N, Kawar L, Myatt R, Sinan LOH, Siu SSY, Tjen V, Adeboyejo O, Bacon H, Barnes R, Birnie C, D'Cunha Kamath A, Hughes E, Middleton S, Owen R, Schofield E, Short C, Smith R, Wang H, Willett M, Zimmerman M, Balfour J, Chadwick T, Coombe-Jones M, Do Le HP, Faulkner G, Hobson K, Shehata Z, Beattie M, Chmielewski G, Chong C, Donnelly B, Drusch B, Ellis J, Farrelly C, Feyi-Waboso J, Hibell I, Hoade L, Ho C, Jones H, Kodiatt B, Lidder P, Ni Cheallaigh L, Norman R, Patabendi I, Penfold H, Playfair M, Pomeroy S, Ralph C, Rottenburg H, Sebastian J, Sheehan M, Stanley V, Welchman J, Ajdarpasic D, Antypas A, Azouaghe O, Basi S, Bettoli G, Bhattarai S, Bommireddy L, Bourne K, Budding J, Cookey-Bresi R, Cummins T, Davies G, Fabelurin C, Gwilliam R, Hanley J, Hird A, Kruczynska A, Langhorne B, Lund J, Lutchman I, McGuinness R, Neary M, Pampapathi S, Pang E, Podbicanin S, Rai N, Redhouse White G, Sujith J, Thomas P, Walker I, Winterton R, Anderson P, Barrington M, Bhadra K, Clark G, Fowler G, Gibson C, Hudson S, Kaminskaite V, Lawday S, Longshaw A, MacKrill E, McLachlan F, Murdeshwar A, Nieuwoudt R, Parker P, Randall R, Rawlins E, Reeves SA, Rye D, Sirkis T, Sykes B, Ventress N, Wosinska N, Akram B, Burton L, Coombs A, Long R, Magowan D, Ong C, Sethi M, Williams G, Chan C, Chan LH, Fernando D, Gaba F, Khor Z, Les JW, Mak R, Moin S, Ng Kee Kwong KC, Paterson-Brown S, Tew YY, Bardon A, Burrell K, Coldwell C, Costa I, Dexter E, Hardy A, Khojani M, Mazurek J, Raymond T, Reddy V, Reynolds J, Soma A, Agiotakis S, Alsusa H, Desai N, Peristerakis I, Adcock A, Ayub H, Bennett T, Bibi F, Brenac S, Chapman T, Clarke G, Clark F, Galvin C, Gwyn-Jones A, Henry-Blake C, Kerner S, Kiandee M, Lovett A, Pilecka A, Ravindran R, Siddique H, Sikand T, Treadwell K, Akmal K, Apata A, Barton O, Broad G, Darling H, Dhuga Y, Emms L, Habib S, Jain R, Jeater J, Kan CYP, Kathiravelupillai A, Khatkar H, Kirmani S, Kulasabanathan K, Lacey H, Lal K, Manafa C, Mansoor M, McDonald S, Mittal A, Mustoe S, Nottrodt L, Oliver P, Papapetrou I, Pattinson F, Raja M, Reyhani H, Shahmiri A, Small O, Soni U, Aguirrezabala Armbruster B, Bunni J, Hakim MA, Hawkins-Hooker L, Howell KA, Hullait R, Jaskowska A, Ottewell L, Thomas-Jones I, Vasudev A, Clements B, Fenton J, Gill M, Haider S, Lim AJM, Maguire H, McMullan J, Nicoletti J, Samuel S, Unais MA, White N, Yao PC, Yow L, Boyle C, Brady R, Cheekoty P, Cheong J, Chew SJHL, Chow R, Ganewatta Kankanamge D, Mamer L, Mohammed B, Ng Chieng Hin J, Renji Chungath R, Royston A, Sharrad E, Sinclair R, Tingle S, Treherne K, Wyatt F, Maniarasu VS, Moug S, Appanna T, Bucknall T, Hussain F, Owen A, Parry M, Parry R, Sagua N, Spofforth K, Yuen ECT, Bosley N, Hardie W, Moore T, Regas C, Abdel-Khaleq S, Ali N, Bashiti H, Buxton-Hopley R, Constantinides M, D'Afflitto M, Deshpande A, Duque Golding J, Frisira E, Germani Batacchi M, Gomaa A, Hay D, Hutchison R, Iakovou A, Iakovou D, Ismail E, Jefferson S, Jones L, Khouli Y, Knowles C, Mason J, McCaughan R, Moffatt J, Morawala A, Nadir H, Neyroud F, Nikookam Y, Parmar A, Pinto L, Ramamoorthy R, Richards E, Thomson S, Trainer C, Valetopoulou A, Vassiliou A, Wantman A, Wilde S, Dickinson M, Rockall T, Senn D, Wcislo K, Zalmay P, Adelekan K, Allen K, Bajaj M, Gatumbu P, Hang S, Hashmi Y, Kaur T, Kawesha A, Kisiel A, Woodmass M, Adelowo T, Ahari D, Alhwaishel K, Atherton R, Clayton B, Cockroft A, Curtis Lopez C, Hilton M, Ismail N, Kouadria M, Lee L, MacConnachie A, Monks F, Mungroo S, Nikoletopoulou C, Pearce L, Sara X, Shahid A, Suresh G, Wilcha R, Atiyah A, Davies E, Dermanis A, Gibbons H, Hyde A, Lawson A, Lee C, Leung-Tack M, Li Saw Hee J, Mostafa O, Nair D, Pattani N, Plumbley-Jones J, Pufal K, Ramesh P, Sanghera J, Saram S, Scadding S, See S, Stringer H, Torrance A, Vardon H, Wyn-Griffiths F, Brew A, Kaur G, Soni D, Tickle A, Akbar Z, Appleyard T, Figg K, Jayawardena P, Johnson A, Kamran Siddiqui Z, Lacy-Colson J, Oatham R, Rowlands B, Sludden E, Turnbull C, Allin D, Ansar Z, Azeez Z, Dale VH, Garg J, Horner A, Jones S, Knight S, McGregor C, McKenna J, McLelland T, Packham-Smith A, Rowsell K, Spector-Hill I, Adeniken E, Baker J, Bartlett M, Chikomba L, Connell B, Deekonda P, Dhar M, Elmansouri A, Gamage K, Goodhew R, Hanna P, Knight J, Luca A, Maasoumi N, Mahamoud F, Manji S, Marwaha PK, Mason F, Oluboyede A, Pigott L, Razaq AM, Richardson M, Saddaoui I, Wijeyendram P, Yau S, Atkins W, Liang K, Miles N, Praveen B, Ashai S, Braganza J, Common J, Cundy A, Davies R, Guthrie J, Handa I, Iqbal M, Ismail R, Jones C, Jones I, Lee KS, Levene A, Okocha M, Olivier J, Smith A, Subramaniam E, Tandle S, Wang A, Watson A, Wilson C, Chan XHF, Khoo E, Montgomery C, Norris M, Pugalenthi PP, Common T, Cook E, Mistry H, Shinmar HS, Agarwal G, Bandyopadhyay S, Brazier B, Carroll L, Goede A, Harbourne A, Lakhani A, Lami M, Larwood J, Martin J, Merchant J, Pattenden S, Pradhan A, Raafat N, Rothwell E, Shammoon Y, Sudarshan R, Vickers E, Wingfield L, Ashworth I, Azizi S, Bhate R, Chowdhury T, Christou A, Davies L, Dwaraknath M, Farah Y, Garner J, Gureviciute E, Hart E, Jain A, Javid S, Kankam HK, Kaur Toor P, Kaz R, Kermali M, Khan I, Mattson A, McManus A, Murphy M, Nair K, Ngemoh D, Norton E, Olabiran A, Parry L, Payne T, Pillai K, Price S, Punjabi K, Raghunathan A, Ramwell A, Raza M, Ritehnia J, Simpson G, Smith W, Sodeinde S, Studd L, Subramaniam M, Thomas J, Towey S, Tsang E, Tuteja D, Vasani J, Vio M, Badran A, Adams J, Anthony Wilkinson J, Asvandi S, Austin T, Bald A, Bix E, Carrick M, Chander B, Chowdhury S, Cooper Drake B, Crosbie S, D Portela S, Francis D, Gallagher C, Gillespie R, Gravett H, Gupta P, Ilyas C, James G, Johny J, Jones A, Kinder F, MacLeod C, Macrow C, Maqsood-Shah A, Mather J, McCann L, McMahon R, Mitham E, Mohamed M, Munton E, Nightingale K, O'Neill K, Onyemuchara I, Senior R, Shanahan A, Sherlock J, Spyridoulias A, Stavrou C, Stokes D, Tamang R, Taylor E, Trafford C, Uden C, Waddington C, Yassin D, Zaman M, Bangi S, Cheng T, Chew D, Hussain N, Imani-Masouleh S, Mahasivam G, McKnight G, Ng HL, Ota HC, Pasha T, Ravindran W, Shah K, Vishnu K S, Zaman S, Carr W, Cope S, Eagles EJ, Howarth-Maddison M, Li CY, Reed J, Ridge A, Stubbs T, Teasdaled D, Umar R, Worthington J, Dhebri A, Kalenderov R, Alattas A, Arain Z, Bhudia R, Chia D, Daniel S, Dar T, Garland H, Girish M, Hampson A, Kyriacou H, Lehovsky K, Mullins W, Omorphos N, Vasdev N, Venkatesh A, Waldock W, Bhandari A, Brown G, Choa G, Eichenauer CE, Ezennia K, Kidwai Z, Lloyd-Thomas A, Macaskill Stewart A, Massardi C, Sinclair E, Skajaa N, Smith M, Tan I, Afsheen N, Anuar A, Azam Z, Bhatia P, Davies-kelly N, Dickinson S, Elkawafi M, Ganapathy M, Gupta S, Khoury EG, Licudi D, Mehta V, Neequaye S, Nita G, Tay VL, Zhao S, Botsa E, Cuthbert H, Elliott J, Furlepa M, Lehmann J, Mangtani A, Narayan A, Nazarian S, Parmar C, Shah D, Shaw C, Zhao Z, Beck C, Caldwell S, Clements JM, French B, Kenny R, Kirk S, Lindsay J, McClung A, McLaughlin N, Watson S, Whiteside E, Alyacoubi S, Arumugam V, Beg R, Dawas K, Garg S, Lloyd ER, Mahfouz Y, Manobharath N, Moonesinghe R, Morka N, Patel K, Prashar J, Yip S, Adeeko ES, Ajekigbe F, Bhat A, Evans C, Farrugia A, Gurung C, Long T, Malik B, Manirajan S, Newport D, Rayer J, Ridha A, Ross E, Saran T, Sinker A, Waruingi D, Allen R, Al Sadek Y, Alves do Canto Brum H, Asharaf H, Ashman M, Balakumar V, Barrington J, Baskaran R, Berry A, Bhachoo H, Bilal A, Boaden L, Chia WL, Covell G, Crook D, Dadnam F, Davis L, De Berker H, Doyle C, Fox C, Gruffydd-Davies M, Hafouda Y, Hill A, Hubbard E, Hunter A, Inpadhas V, Jamshaid M, Jandu G, Jeyanthi M, Jones T, Kantor C, Kwak SY, Malik N, Matt R, McNulty P, Miles C, Mohomed A, Myat P, Niharika J, Nixon A, O'Reilly D, Parmar K, Pengelly S, Price L, Ramsden M, Turnor R, Wales E, Waring H, Wu M, Yang T, Ye TTS, Zander A, Zeicu C, Bellam S, Francombe J, Kawamoto N, Rahman MR, Sathyanarayana A, Tang HT, Cheung J, Hollingshead J, Page V, Sugarman J, Wong E, Chiong J, Fung E, Kan SY, Kiang J, Kok J, Krahelski O, Liew MY, Lyell B, Sharif Z, Speake D, Alim L, Amakye NY, Chandrasekaran J, Chandratreya N, Drake J, Owoso T, Thu YM, Abou El Ela Bourquin B, Alberts J, Chapman D, Rehnnuma N, Ainsworth K, Carpenter H, Emmanuel T, Fisher T, Gabrel M, Guan Z, Hollows S, Hotouras A, Ip Fung Chun N, Jaffer S, Kallikas G, Kennedy N, Lewinsohn B, Liu FY, Mohammed S, Rutherfurd A, Situ T, Stammer A, Taylor F, Thin N, Urgesi E, Zhang N, Ahmad MA, Bishop A, Bowes A, Dixit A, Glasson R, Hatta S, Hatt K, Larcombe S, Preece J, Riordan E, Fegredo D, Haq MZ, Li C, McCann G, Stewart D, Baraza W, Bhullar D, Burt G, Coyle J, Deans J, Devine A, Hird R, Ikotun O, Manchip G, Ross C, Storey L, Tan WWL, Tse C, Warner C, Whitehead M, Wu F, Court EL, Crisp E, Huttman M, Mayes F, Robertson H, Rosen H, Sandberg C, Smith H, Al Bakry M, Ashwell W, Bajaj S, Bandyopadhyay D, Browlee O, Burway S, Chand CP, Elsayeh K, Elsharkawi A, Evans E, Ferrin S, Fort-Schaale A, Iacob M, I K, Impelliziere Licastro G, Mankoo AS, Olaniyan T, Otun J, Pereira R, Reddy R, Saeed D, Simmonds O, Singhal G, Tron K, Wickstone C, Williams R, Bradshaw E, De Kock Jewell V, Houlden C, Knight C, Metezai H, Mirza-Davies A, Seymour Z, Spink D, Wischhusen S. Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e520-e531. [PMID: 35750401 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00069-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. METHODS We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). FINDINGS In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]). INTERPRETATION In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. FUNDING British Journal of Surgery Society.
Collapse
|