A varying-coefficient model for the analysis of methylation sequencing data

DNA methylation is an important epigenetic modification involved in gene regulation. Advances in the next generation sequencing technology have enabled the retrieval of DNA methylation information at single-base-resolution. However, due to the sequencing process and the limited amount of isolated DNA, DNA-methylation-data are often noisy and sparse, which complicates the identification of differentially methylated regions (DMRs), especially when few replicates are available. We present a varying-coefficient model for detecting DMRs by using single-base-resolved methylation information. The model simultaneously smooths the methylation profiles and allows detection of DMRs, while accounting for additional covariates. The proposed model takes into account possible overdispersion by using a beta-binomial distribution. The overdispersion itself can be modeled as a function of the genomic region and explanatory variables. We illustrate the properties of the proposed model by applying it to two real-life case studies.

Using an early outcome as the sole source of information of interim decisions regarding treatment effect on a long-term endpoint: The non-Gaussian case

In randomized clinical trials that use a long-term efficacy endpoint, the follow-up time necessary to observe the endpoint may be substantial. In such trials, an attractive option is to consider an interim analysis based solely on an early outcome that could be used to expedite the evaluation of treatment's efficacy. Garcia Barrado et al. (Pharm Stat. 2022; 21: 209-219) developed a methodology that allows introducing such an early interim analysis for the case when both the early outcome and the long-term endpoint are normally-distributed, continuous variables. We extend the methodology to any combination of the early-outcome and long-term-endpoint types. As an example, we consider the case of a binary outcome and a time-to-event endpoint. We further evaluate the potential gain in operating characteristics (power, expected trial duration, and expected sample size) of a trial with such an interim analysis in function of the properties of the early outcome as a surrogate for the long-term endpoint.

Unveiling the Molecular Mechanism of Trastuzumab Resistance in SKBR3 and BT474 Cell Lines for HER2 Positive Breast Cancer

HER2-positive breast cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of cancer among women worldwide. Generally, the molecular characteristics of this breast cancer include activation of human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) and hormone receptor activation. HER2-positive is associated with a higher death rate, which led to the development of a monoclonal antibody called trastuzumab, specifically targeting HER2. The success rate of HER2-positive breast cancer treatment has been increased; however, drug resistance remains a challenge. This fact motivated us to explore the underlying molecular mechanisms of trastuzumab resistance. For this purpose, a two-fold approach was taken by considering well-known breast cancer cell lines SKBR3 and BT474. In the first fold, trastuzumab treatment doses were optimized separately for both cell lines. This was done based on the proliferation rate of cells in response to a wide variety of medication dosages. Thereafter, each cell line was cultivated with a steady dosage of herceptin for several months. During this period, six time points were selected for further in vitro analysis, ranging from the untreated cell line at the beginning to a fully resistant cell line at the end of the experiment. In the second fold, nucleic acids were extracted for further high throughput-based microarray experiments of gene and microRNA expression. Such expression data were further analyzed in order to infer the molecular mechanisms involved in the underlying development of trastuzumab resistance. In the list of differentially expressed genes and miRNAs, multiple genes (e.g., BIRC5, E2F1, TFRC, and USP1) and miRNAs (e.g., hsa miR 574 3p, hsa miR 4530, and hsa miR 197 3p) responsible for trastuzumab resistance were found. Downstream analysis showed that TFRC, E2F1, and USP1 were also targeted by hsa-miR-8485. Moreover, it indicated that miR-4701-5p was highly expressed as compared to TFRC in the SKBR3 cell line. These results unveil key genes and miRNAs as molecular regulators for trastuzumab resistance.

Minimization in randomized clinical trials

In randomized trials, comparability of the treatment groups is ensured through allocation of treatments using a mechanism that involves some random element, thus controlling for confounding of the treatment effect. Completely random allocation ensures comparability between the treatment groups for all known and unknown prognostic factors. For a specific trial, however, imbalances in prognostic factors among the treatment groups may occur. Although accidental bias can be avoided in the presence of such imbalances by stratifying the analysis, most trialists, regulatory agencies, and other stakeholders prefer a balanced distribution of prognostic factors across the treatment groups. Some procedures attempt to achieve balance in baseline covariates, by stratifying the allocation for these covariates, or by dynamically adapting the allocation using covariate information during the trial (covariate-adaptive procedures). In this Tutorial, the performance of minimization, a popular covariate-adaptive procedure, is compared with two other commonly used procedures, completely random allocation and stratified blocked designs. Using individual patient data of 2 clinical trials (in advanced ovarian cancer and age-related macular degeneration), the procedures are compared in terms of operating characteristics (using asymptotic and randomization tests), predictability of treatment allocation, and achieved balance. Fifty actual trials of various sizes that applied minimization for treatment allocation are used to investigate the achieved balance. Implementation issues of minimization are described. Minimization procedures are useful in all trials but especially when (1) many major prognostic factors are known, (2) many centers of different sizes accrue patients, or (3) the trial sample size is moderate.

Trial Design for Cancer Immunotherapy: A Methodological Toolkit

Immunotherapy with checkpoint inhibitors (CPIs) and cell-based products has revolutionized the treatment of various solid tumors and hematologic malignancies. These agents have shown unprecedented response rates and long-term benefits in various settings. These clinical advances have also pointed to the need for new or adapted approaches to trial design and assessment of efficacy and safety, both in the early and late phases of drug development. Some of the conventional statistical methods and endpoints used in other areas of oncology appear to be less appropriate in immuno-oncology. Conversely, other methods and endpoints have emerged as alternatives. In this article, we discuss issues related to trial design in the early and late phases of drug development in immuno-oncology, with a focus on CPIs. For early trials, we review the most salient issues related to dose escalation, use and limitations of tumor response and progression criteria for immunotherapy, the role of duration of response as an endpoint in and of itself, and the need to conduct randomized trials as early as possible in the development of new therapies. For late phases, we discuss the choice of primary endpoints for randomized trials, review the current status of surrogate endpoints, and discuss specific statistical issues related to immunotherapy, including non-proportional hazards in the assessment of time-to-event endpoints, alternatives to the Cox model in these settings, and the method of generalized pairwise comparisons, which can provide a patient-centric assessment of clinical benefit and be used to design randomized trials.

Over-accrual in Bayesian adaptive trials with continuous futility stopping

BACKGROUND

We explore frequentist operating characteristics of a Bayesian adaptive design that allows continuous early stopping for futility. In particular, we focus on the power versus sample size relationship when more patients are accrued than originally planned.

METHODS

We consider the case of a phase II single-arm study and a Bayesian phase II outcome-adaptive randomization design. For the former, analytical calculations are possible; for the latter, simulations are conducted.

RESULTS

Results for both cases show a decrease in power with an increasing sample size. It appears that this effect is due to the increasing cumulative probability of incorrectly stopping for futility.

CONCLUSION

The increase in cumulative probability of incorrectly stopping for futility is related to the continuous nature of the early stopping, which increases the number of interim analyses with accrual. The issue can be addressed by, for instance, delaying the start of testing for futility, reducing the number of futility tests to be performed or by setting stricter criteria for concluding futility.

Availability of Third Molars as Donor Teeth for Autotransplantation to Replace Congenitally Absent Second Premolars in Children and Young Adults

The aim of the study was to assess the presence and distribution of third molars (M3) regarding their autotransplantation in patients with congenital absence of second premolars (PM2). Additionally, M3 development in relation to patients' age and gender was investigated. Panoramic radiographs of non-syndromic patients with at least one congenitally absent PM2 were used to assess the localization and number of missing PM2 and the presence or absence of M3 (minimum age 10 years). The alternate logistic regression model was applied to analyze associations between the presence of PM2 and M3. A total of 131 patients with PM2 agenesis were identified (82 females, 49 males). At least one M3 was present in 75.6% and all M3 were present in 42.7% of patients. A statistically significant association between the number of PM2 and M3 agenesis was found; the effects of age and gender were not significant. More than half of M3 in patients between 14-17 years old had completed ¼ of their root development. The congenital absence of maxillary PM2 was associated with the absence of maxillary PM2, M3, and no correlation was found in the mandible. In patients with PM2 agenesis, at least one M3 is often present and can be considered as a donor tooth for autotransplantation.

Machine learning approach for the prediction of the number of sulphur atoms in peptides using the theoretical aggregated isotope distribution

RATIONALE

The observed isotope distribution is an important attribute for the identification of peptides and proteins in mass spectrometry-based proteomics. Sulphur atoms have a very distinctive elemental isotope definition, and therefore, the presence of sulphur atoms has a substantial effect on the isotope distribution of biomolecules. Hence, knowledge of the number of sulphur atoms can improve the identification of peptides and proteins.

METHODS

In this paper, we conducted a theoretical investigation on the isotope properties of sulphur-containing peptides. We proposed a gradient boosting approach to predict the number of sulphur atoms based on the aggregated isotope distribution. We compared prediction accuracy and assessed the predictive power of the features using the mass and isotope abundance information from the first three, five and eight aggregated isotope peaks.

RESULTS

Mass features alone are not sufficient to accurately predict the number of sulphur atoms. However, we reach near-perfect prediction when we include isotope abundance features. The abundance ratios of the eighth and the seventh, the fifth and the fourth, and the third and the second aggregated isotope peaks are the most important abundance features. The mass difference between the eighth, the fifth or the third aggregated isotope peaks and the monoisotopic peak are the most predictive mass features.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the validation analysis it can be concluded that the prediction of the number of sulphur atoms based on the isotope profile fails, because the isotope ratios are not measured accurately. These results indicate that it is valuable for future instrument developments to focus more on improving spectral accuracy to measure peak intensities of higher-order isotope peaks more accurately.

Generalized pairwise comparisons for censored data: An overview

The method of generalized pairwise comparisons (GPC) is an extension of the well-known nonparametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for comparing two groups of observations. Multiple generalizations of Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test and other GPC methods have been proposed over the years to handle censored data. These methods apply different approaches to handling loss of information due to censoring: ignoring noninformative pairwise comparisons due to censoring (Gehan, Harrell, and Buyse); imputation using estimates of the survival distribution (Efron, Péron, and Latta); or inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW, Datta and Dong). Based on the GPC statistic, a measure of treatment effect, the "net benefit," can be defined. It quantifies the difference between the probabilities that a randomly selected individual from one group is doing better than an individual from the other group. This paper aims at evaluating GPC methods for censored data, both in the context of hypothesis testing and estimation, and providing recommendations related to their choice in various situations. The methods that ignore uninformative pairs have comparable power to more complex and computationally demanding methods in situations of low censoring, and are slightly superior for high proportions (>40%) of censoring. If one is interested in estimation of the net benefit, Harrell's c index is an unbiased estimator if the proportional hazards assumption holds. Otherwise, the imputation (Efron or Peron) or IPCW (Datta, Dong) methods provide unbiased estimators in case of proportions of drop-out censoring up to 60%.

The case against censoring of progression-free survival in cancer clinical trials - A pandemic shutdown as an illustration

Background

Missing data may lead to loss of statistical power and introduce bias in clinical trials. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on patient health care and on the conduct of cancer clinical trials. Although several endpoints may be affected, progression-free survival (PFS) is of major concern, given its frequent use as primary endpoint in advanced cancer and the fact that missed radiographic assessments are to be expected. The recent introduction of the estimand framework creates an opportunity to define more precisely the target of estimation and ensure alignment between the scientific question and the statistical analysis.

Methods

We used simulations to investigate the impact of two basic approaches for handling missing tumor scans due to the pandemic: a “treatment policy” strategy, which consisted in ascribing events to the time they are observed, and a “hypothetical” approach of censoring patients with events during the shutdown period at the last assessment prior to that period. We computed the power of the logrank test, estimated hazard ratios (HR) using Cox models, and estimated median PFS times without and with a hypothetical 6-month shutdown period with no patient enrollment or tumor scans being performed, varying the shutdown starting times.

Results

Compared with the results in the absence of shutdown, the “treatment policy” strategy slightly overestimated median PFS proportionally to the timing of the shutdown period, but power was not affected. Except for one specific scenario, there was no impact on the estimated HR. In general, the pandemic had a greater impact on the analyses using the “hypothetical” strategy, which led to decreased power and overestimated median PFS times to a greater extent than the “treatment policy” strategy.

Conclusion

As a rule, we suggest that the treatment policy approach, which conforms with the intent-to-treat principle, should be the primary analysis to avoid unnecessary loss of power and minimize bias in median PFS estimates.

Clinical Trial Endpoints in Metastatic Cancer: Using Individual Participant Data to Inform Future Trials Methodology

Meta-analysis based on individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful methodology for synthesizing evidence by combining information drawn from multiple trials. Hitherto, its principal application has been in questions of clinical management, but an increasingly important use is in clarifying trials methodology, for instance in the selection of endpoints, as discussed in this review. In oncology, the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive (ARCAD) Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Database is a leader in the use of IPD-based meta-analysis in methodological research. The ARCAD database contains IPD from more than 38 000 patients enrolled in 46 studies and continues to collect phase III trial data. Here, we review the principal findings of the ARCAD project in respect of endpoint selection and examine their implications for cancer trials. Analysis of the database has confirmed that progression-free survival (PFS) is no longer a valid surrogate endpoint predictive of overall survival in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer. Nonetheless, PFS remains an endpoint of choice for most first-line trials in metastatic colorectal cancer and other solid tumors. Only substantial PFS effects are likely to translate into clinically meaningful benefits, and accordingly, we advocate an oncology research model designed to identify highly effective treatments in carefully defined patient groups. We also review the use of the ARCAD database in assessing clinical response including novel response metrics and prognostic markers. These studies demonstrate the value of IPD as a tool for methodological studies and provide a reference point for the expansion of this approach within clinical cancer research.

Surrogacy Beyond Prognosis: The Importance of “Trial-Level” Surrogacy

Many candidate surrogate endpoints are currently assessed using a 2-level statistical approach, which consists in checking whether (1) the potential surrogate is associated with the final endpoint in individual patients and (2) the effect of treatment on the surrogate can be used to reliably predict the effect of treatment on the final endpoint. In some situations, condition (1) is fulfilled but condition (2) is not. We use concepts of causal inference to explain this apparently paradoxical situation, illustrating this review with 2 contrasting examples in operable breast cancer: the example of pathological complete response (pCR) and that of disease-free survival (DFS). In a previous meta-analysis, pCR has been shown to be a strong and independent prognostic factor for event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) after neoadjuvant treatment of operable breast cancer. Yet, in randomized trials, the effects of experimental treatments on pCR have not translated into predictable effects on EFS or OS, making pCR an “individual-level” surrogate, but not a “trial-level” surrogate. In contrast, DFS has been shown to be an acceptable surrogate for OS at both the individual and trial levels in early, HER2-positive breast cancer. The distinction between the prognostic and predictive roles of a tentative surrogate, not always made in the literature, avoids unnecessary confusion and allows better understanding of what it takes to validate a surrogate endpoint that is truly able to replace a final endpoint.