Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Camrelizumab and apatinib plus induction chemotherapy and concurrent chemoradiotherapy in stage N3 nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a phase 2 clinical trial

The antiangiogenic agent apatinib has been shown to clinically improve responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors in several cancer types. Patients with N3 nasopharyngeal carcinoma have a high risk of distant metastasis, however, if the addition of immunotherapy to standard treatment could improve efficacy is unclear. In this phase II clinical trial (ChiCTR2000032317), 49 patients with stage TanyN3M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma were enrolled and received the combination of three cycles of induction chemotherapy, camrelizumab and apatinib followed by chemoradiotherapy. Here we report on the primary outcome of distant metastasis-free survival and secondary end points of objective response rate, failure-free survival, locoregional recurrence-free survival, overall survival and toxicity profile. After induction therapy, all patients had objective response, including 13 patients (26.5%) with complete response. After a median follow-up of 28.7 months, the primary endpoint of 1-year distant metastasis-free survival was met for the cohort (1-year DMFS rate: 98%). Grade≥3 toxicity appeared in 32 (65.3%) patients, with the most common being mucositis (14[28.6%]) and nausea/vomiting (9[18.4%]). In this work, camrelizumab and apatinib in combination with induction chemotherapy show promising distant metastasis control with acceptable safety profile in patients with stage TanyN3M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Efficacy and safety of sintilimab plus bevacizumab in metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after failure of platinum-based chemotherapy: an open-label phase 2 study

Background

There are limited treatment options for patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) after failure of platinum-based chemotherapy. In this trial, we assessed the efficacy and safety of sintilimab plus bevacizumab in patients with mNPC where platinum-based chemotherapy has been ineffective.

Methods

This was a single-centre, open-label, single-arm, phase 2 trial in Guangzhou, China for patients with mNPC progressed after at least one line of systemic therapy. Eligible patients were between 18 and 75 years old, were histologically confirmed differentiated or undifferentiated non-keratinized NPC, were ineffective after platinum-based chemotherapy, and they had at least one measurable metastatic lesion assessed with Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors Version 1.1 (RECIST V.1.1) by investigators and unsuitable for local surgery or radiotherapy. Key exclusion criterion was previous treatment with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 antibodies plus anti-VEGF antibodies and high risk of hemorrhage or nasopharyngeal necrosis. Patients were enrolled and received sintilimab (200 mg) plus bevacizumab (7.5 mg/kg) intravenously every 3 weeks. Intention-to-treat population was included in primary endpoint analyses and safety analyses. The primary endpoint was objective response rate (ORR) assessed by investigators following the guidelines of RECIST V1.1. Key secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), duration of response (DOR), and safety. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04872582).

Findings

Between July 29, 2021 and August 16, 2022, 33 patients were enrolled. Median age was 46 years (range, 18-64 years), and 63.6% of patients had previously received two or more lines of chemotherapy for metastatic disease. Median follow-up was 7.6 months (range, 4.1-17.5 months). ORR was 54.5% (95% CI, 36.4-71.9%) with 3 complete responses (9.1%) and 15 partial responses (45.5%). Median PFS was 6.8 months (95% CI, 5.2 months to not estimable). Median DOR was 7.2 months (95% CI, 4.4 months to not estimable). Median OS was not reached. The most common potential immune-related adverse event (AE) was Grade 1-2 hypothyroidism (42.4%). Treatment-related grade 3 or 4 AEs occurred in 7 patients (21.2%), including nasal necrosis (3/33), hypertension (1/33), pruritus (1/33), total bilirubin increased (1/33) and anaphylactic shock (1/33). No treatment-related deaths and severe epistaxis occurred.

Interpretation

This phase 2 trial showed that sintilimab plus bevacizumab demonstrated promising antitumour activity and manageable toxicities in patients with mNPC after failure of platinum-based chemotherapy. Further trials are warranted, and the detailed mechanisms need to be elucidated.

Funding

The Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, and the Science and Technology Planning Project of International Cooperation of Guangdong Province.

Development of a prognostic model to identify the metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients who may benefit from chemotherapy combination PD-1 inhibitor

Background

We aimed to establish a prognostic model to identify suitable candidates for chemotherapy combination PD-1 inhibitor in metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients.

Patients and methods

In this retrospective study, we included 524 patients (192 patients treated with chemotherapy combination PD-1 inhibitor and 332 received chemotherapy alone as first-line regimen) with metastatic NPC between January 2015 and March 2021. We developed a prognostic model to predict progression-free survival (PFS). A model-based trees approach was applied to estimate stratified treatment effects using prognostic scores and two well-matched risk groups (low-risk and high-risk) were created using propensity score matching.

Results

A prognostic nomogram was established with good accuracy for predicting PFS (c-index values of 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.73). The survival curves were significantly different between low-risk and high-risk groups (median PFS: 9.8 vs. 22.8 months, P < 0.001, respectively). After propensity matching analysis, chemotherapy combination PD-1 inhibitor was significantly associated with superior PFS as compared with chemotherapy alone (median PFS, 10.6 versus 9.3 months, P = 0.016) in the high-risk group. However, no significant difference between chemotherapy combination PD-1 inhibitor and chemotherapy was observed (P = 0.840) in the low-risk groups.

Conclusions

Our novel prognostic model was able to stratify patients with metastatic NPC into low-risk or high-risk groups and identify candidates for PD-1 inhibitor therapy. These results are expected to be confirmed by a prospective clinical trial.

Plasma Circulating Tumor Epstein-Barr Virus for the Surveillance of Cancer Progression in Bone-Only Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background

Plasma Epstein–Barr virus DNA (EBV-DNA) is a sensitive and specific biomarker for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We investigated whether longitudinal monitoring of EBV-DNA could accurately detect clinical disease progression in NPC patients with bone-only metastases.

Methods

In this retrospective study, a total of 105 patients with bone-only metastatic NPC who were treated with platinum-based first-line chemotherapy were enrolled. Undetectable EBV-DNA after first-line chemotherapy was defined as a biochemical complete response (BCR). The correlation of the EBV-DNA dynamic status with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) was determined by Cox regression. The correlation between non-normalized EBV-DNA period and PFS period was determined.

Results

After a median follow-up time of 53.4 months [Interquartile range (IQR): 42.8–80.6], 64 patients had disease progression. Thirty-nine of 105 patients (37.1%) had a BCR at all follow-up time points, and none of these 39 patients had disease progression, corresponding to a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100%. Sixty-six patients had a detectable EBV-DNA during surveillance, with 64 diagnosed as disease progression at the last follow-up, for a positive predictive value (PPV) of 97.0%. Actuarial 3-year OS rates were 45.0% for patients with detectable EBV-DNA during posttreatment surveillance and 100% for patients with undetectable EBV-DNA. Lastly, median lead time between non-normalized EBV-DNA and clinically proven progression was 5.87 ± 0.67 months.

Conclusions

Taken together, EBV-DNA provided predictive value for the bone-only metastatic NPC patients. The results should be validated in prospective randomized studies.

Effect of Induction Chemotherapy With Paclitaxel, Cisplatin, and Capecitabine vs Cisplatin and Fluorouracil on Failure-Free Survival for Patients With Stage IVA to IVB Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Multicenter Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Induction chemotherapy added to concurrent chemoradiotherapy significantly improves survival for patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma, but the optimal induction regimen remains unclear.

Objective

To determine whether induction chemotherapy with paclitaxel, cisplatin, and capecitabine (TPC) improves survival vs cisplatin and fluorouracil (PF) prior to chemoradiotherapy for patients with stage IVA to IVB nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This randomized, open-label, phase 3 clinical trial recruited 238 patients at 4 hospitals in China from October 20, 2016, to August 29, 2019. Patients were 18 to 65 years of age with treatment-naive, nonkeratinizing stage IVA to IVB nasopharyngeal carcinoma and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 to 1.

Interventions

Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive induction chemotherapy with two 21-day cycles of TPC (intravenous paclitaxel [150 mg/m2, day 1], intravenous cisplatin [60 mg/m2, day 1], and oral capecitabine [1000 mg/m2 orally twice daily, days 1-14]) or PF (intravenous cisplatin [100 mg/m2, day 1] and fluorouracil [800 mg/m2 daily, days 1-5]), followed by chemoradiotherapy.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was failure-free survival in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary end points included distant metastasis-free survival, locoregional relapse-free survival, overall survival, tumor response, and safety.

Results

Overall, 238 eligible patients (187 men [78.6%]; median age, 45 years [range, 18-65 years]) were randomly assigned to receive TPC (n = 118) or PF (n = 120). The median follow-up duration was 48.4 months (IQR, 39.6-53.3 months). Failure-free survival at 3 years was 83.5% (95% CI, 77.0%-90.6%) in the TPC group and 68.9% (95% CI, 61.1%-77.8%) in the PF group (stratified hazard ratio [HR] for recurrence or death, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.28-0.79; P = .004). Induction with the TPC regimen resulted in a significant reduction in the risk of distant metastases (stratified HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.24-0.98]; P = .04) and locoregional recurrence (stratified HR, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.18-0.93]; P = .03) compared with the PF regimen. However, there was no effect on early overall survival (stratified HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.17-1.18]; P = .10). The incidences of grade 3 to 4 acute adverse events and late-onset toxicities were 57.6% (n = 68) and 13.6% (16 of 118), respectively, in the TPC group and 65.8% (n = 79) and 17.9% (21 of 117), respectively, in the PF group. One treatment-related death occurred in the PF group.

Conclusions and Relevance

This randomized clinical trial found that induction chemotherapy with 2 cycles of TPC for patients with stage IVA to IVB nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved failure-free survival compared with 2 cycles of PF, with no increase in the toxicity profile.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02940925.

Individualized clinical target volume delineation and efficacy analysis in unilateral nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT): 10-year summary

PURPOSE

To evaluate the long-term local control, failure patterns, and toxicities after individualized clinical target volume (CTV) delineation in unilateral nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

METHODS

Unilateral NPC was defined as a nasopharyngeal mass confined to one side of the nasopharynx and did not exceed the midline. From November 2003 to December 2017, 95 patients were retrospectively included. All patients received IMRT. The CTVs were determined based on the distance from the gross tumor. The contralateral para-pharyngeal space and skull base orifices were spared from irradiation.

RESULTS

There were three local recurrences and eight regional recurrences in 10 patients during an 84-month follow-up. All local recurrences were within PGTVnx, and all in-field recurrences. No recurrences were found in traditional high-risk areas including contralateral the para-pharyngeal space and skull base orifices. The 10-year local-recurrence-free survival, regional-recurrence-free survival and overall survival were 96.2%, 90.5% and 84.7%, respectively. The dosimetry parameters of the tumor-contralateral organs were all lower than the values of the tumor-ipsilateral side (P < 0.05). The late toxicities occurred mainly in the tumor-ipsilateral organs, including radiation-induced temporal lobe injury, impaired visuality, hearing loss and subcutaneous fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Individualized CTV delineation in unilateral NPC could yield excellent long-term local control with limited out-of-field recurrences, reduced dose to tumor- contralateral organs and mild late toxicities, which is worthy of further exploration.

Effect of Capecitabine Maintenance Therapy Plus Best Supportive Care vs Best Supportive Care Alone on Progression-Free Survival Among Patients With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Who Had Received Induction Chemotherapy: A Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Capecitabine maintenance therapy improves survival outcomes in various cancer types, but data are limited on the efficacy and safety of capecitabine maintenance therapy in metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the efficacy and safety of capecitabine maintenance therapy in metastatic NPC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This randomized phase 3 clinical trial was conducted at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from May 16, 2015, to January 9, 2020, among 104 patients with newly diagnosed metastatic NPC who had achieved disease control after 4 to 6 cycles of induction chemotherapy with paclitaxel, cisplatin, and capecitabine. The final follow-up date was May 30, 2021. All efficacy analyses were conducted in the intention-to-treat population.

INTERVENTIONS

Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either capecitabine maintenance therapy (1000 mg/m2 orally twice daily on days 1-14) every 3 weeks plus best supportive care (BSC) (capecitabine maintenance group) or BSC alone after 4 to 6 cycles of induction chemotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary end points were objective response rate, duration of response, overall survival, and safety.

RESULTS

This study included 104 patients (84 men [80.8%]; median age, 47 years [IQR, 38-54 years]), with 52 assigned to the capecitabine maintenance group and 52 assigned to the BSC group. After a median follow-up of 33.8 months (IQR, 22.9-50.7 months), there were 23 events (44.2%) of progression or death in the capecitabine maintenance group and 37 events (71.2%) of progression or death in the BSC group. Median PFS survival was significantly higher in the capecitabine maintenance group (35.9 months [95% CI, 20.5 months-not reached]) than in the BSC group (8.2 months [95% CI, 6.4-10.0 months]), with a hazard ratio of 0.44 (95% CI, 0.26-0.74; P = .002). Higher objective response rates and longer median duration of response were observed in the capecitabine maintenance group (25.0%; 40.0 months) compared with the BSC group (objective response rate, 25.0% [n = 13] vs 11.5% [n = 6]; and median duration of response, 40.0 months [95% CI, not reached-not reached] vs 13.2 months [95% CI, 9.9-16.5 months]). The most common grade 3 or 4 adverse events during maintenance therapy were anemia (6 of 50 [12.0%]), hand-foot syndrome (5 of 50 [10.0%]), nausea and vomiting (3 of 50 [6.0%]), fatigue (2 of 50 [4.0%]), and mucositis (2 of 50 [4.0%]). No deaths in the maintenance group were deemed treatment-related.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this phase 3 randomized clinical trial, capecitabine maintenance therapy significantly improved PFS for patients with newly diagnosed metastatic NPC who achieved disease control after capecitabine-containing induction chemotherapy. Capecitabine exhibited manageable toxic effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02460419.

[Association between occupational noise exposure and the risk of cardiovascular diseases]

Objective: To explore the association between occupational noise exposure and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a large Chinese population. Methods: In December 2019, the study included 21412 retired participants from the Dongfeng-Tongji Cohort Study at baseline from September 2008 to June 2010, occupational noise exposure was evaluated through workplace noise level and/or the job titles. In a subsample of 8931 subjects, bilateral hearing loss was defined as a pure-tone mean of 25 dB or higher at 0.5, 1 , 2, and 4 kHz in both ears. Logistic regression models were used to explore the association of occupational noise exposure, bilateral hearing loss with 10-year CVD risk. Results: Compared with participants without occupational noise exposure, the 10-year CVD risk was significantly higher for noise exposure duration ≥20 years (OR=1.20, 95%CI:1.01-1.41 , P=0.001) after adjusting for potential confounders. In the sex-specific analysis, the association was only statistically significant in males (OR=2.34, 95%CI: 1.18-4.66, P<0.001) , but not in females (OR=1.15, 95%CI:0.97-1.37, P=0.153). In the subsample analyses, bilateral hearing loss, which was an indicator for exposure to loud noise, was also associated with a higher risk of 10-year CVD (OR= 1.17, 95% CI:1.05-1.44, P <0.001) , especially for participants who were males (OR =1.24, 95% CI:1.07-2.30, P<0.001) , aged equal and over 60 years old (OR=2.30, 95%CI: 1.84-2.88, P<0.001) , and exposed to occupational noise (OR=1.66, 95%CI: 1.02-2.70, P=0.001). Conclusion: Occupational noise exposure may be a risk factor for CVD.

Assessment of Survival Model Performance Following Inclusion of Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Status in Conventional TNM Staging Groups in Epstein-Barr Virus-Related Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

IMPORTANCE

Nonanatomic prognostic factors complement the traditional anatomic staging system and could be incorporated into the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) framework. Several diseases have incorporated nonanatomic prognostic factors into the determination of TNM staging groups.

OBJECTIVE

To refine TNM staging groups for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) by incorporating EBV DNA status.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter prognostic study included patients with NPC treated with radiotherapy at 2 hospitals in China from January 2008 to December 2016. Progression-free survival and overall survival according to EBV DNA status and the TNM staging system were compared. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) combined with supervised clustering was applied to derive prognostic groupings, and then a refined RPA staging schema was developed, validated, and compared with existing staging schemes. Statistical analyses were conducted from October 1, 2020, to June 15, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Curative intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without platinum-based chemotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was progression-free survival. The performance of the staging system was assessed using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and the TNM stage system's evaluation methodology.

RESULTS

A total of 2354 patients (1709 men [72.6%]; median [interquartile range] age, 45 [38-53] years) were split into training (1372 [58.3%]), internal validation (672 [28.5%]), and external validation (310 [13.2%]) cohorts. Pretreatment EBV DNA was detected in 1338 (56.8%) patients. EBV DNA status was an independent prognostic factor: lower survival probability by higher TNM stage was evident in EBV DNA-positive patients but not in those with EBV DNA-negative disease. After integrating EBV DNA status and TNM stage, nonmetastatic NPC cases were categorized into RPA-I (T1-3N0 or EBV DNA-negative T1-3N1 cancers), RPA-II (EBV DNA-positive T1-3N1-2 or EBV DNA-negative T1-3N2-3/T4N0-3 cancers), and RPA-III (EBV DNA-positive T4N0-3/T1-3N3 cancers) groups, each with distinctly different prognosis. This system of RPA staging outperformed the current TNM stage system and 2 reported RPA staging schemes. These results were internally and externally validated.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

An RPA-based staging system for EBV-related NPC cases was associated with improved outcomes. This staging system may facilitate prognostic stratification and clinical trial designs.

Trajectories of EBV DNA and identifying the potential long-term survivors in metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is highly incident in southern China. Distant metastasis is the leading cause of death in NPC patients. However, the phenotypical feature of this patient population is largely undefined. The current study aimed to categorize metastatic NPC patients into novel subgroups based on their EBV DNA trajectories. In this retrospective study, 446 eligible patients with metastatic NPC treated at Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. Using a mixture model analysis, we identified distinct trajectories based on longitudinal EBV DNA measurements. We evaluated their associations with metastatic NPC mortality using Cox regression analysis. The two-class trajectory model provided the best fit, in which 272 patients were classified as non-sustained EBV DNA class and 174 patients as sustained EBV DNA class. After a median follow-up of 60.8 months, the median OS was 61.7 months in the sustained EBV DNA clearance class versus 20.0 months in the non-sustained EBV DNA clearance class (P<0.001). Compared with patients in the non-sustained EBV DNA clearance class, patients in the sustained EBV DNA clearance class demonstrated superior PFS (HR, 3.238; 95% CI, 2.601-4.032; P<0.001). Forty-three patients experienced disease-free for longer than 36 months, defined as long-term survivors (LTS). Notably, 41 patients were presented in the sustained EBV DNA clearance class (95.3%), along with only 2 patients in the non-sustained EBV DNA clearance class. Collectively, we identified two EBV DNA trajectory sub-phenotypes of patients with metastatic NPC, providing more reliable survival information for physicians and patients during their informed decision-making process.

A Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Two Different Schedules for Cisplatin Treatment in Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Cancer

PURPOSE

Previous studies suggest that a cumulative cisplatin dose of 200 mg/m² might be adequate in the intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) era for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC). However, two cycles of once-every-3-weeks cisplatin at 100 mg/m² has never been prospectively compared with standard once-a-week cisplatin regimen.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This trial was conducted at three hospitals from 2011 to 2016. Patients who met the eligibility criteria were recruited (ChiCTR-TRC-12001979) and randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated sequence to receive once-every-3-weeks cisplatin at 100 mg/m² for two cycles or once-a-week cisplatin at 40 mg/m² for six cycles concurrently with IMRT. Primary endpoint was failure-free survival and between-group absolute difference of 10% as the noninferiority margin.

RESULTS

A total of 510 patients were enrolled. Median follow-up time was 58.3 months with 85.4% of 3-year failure-free survival in the once-every-3-weeks group and 85.6% in the once-a-week group. An absolute difference of -0.2% (95% confidence interval, -6.3 to 5.9; P _{noninferiority} = 0.0016). Acute toxicities of grade 3 or higher occurred in 55.8% in the once-every-3-weeks group and 66.3% in the once-a-week group (P = 0.015). The most common acute toxicities were hematologic abnormalities, including leukopenia (16% vs. 27%; P = 0.0022) and thrombocytopenia (1% vs. 5%; P = 0.015). The late grade 3-4 auditory loss rate was significantly lower in the once-every-3-weeks group than the once-a-week group (6% vs. 13%; P = 0.0039).

CONCLUSIONS

Once-every-3-weeks cisplatin as concurrent chemoradiotherapy is noninferior to once-a-week cisplatin in the treatment efficacy in the LANPC. Although both regimens are well tolerated, severe acute toxicities and late-onset auditory loss are higher in the once-a-week group.

Prognostic and Predictive Value of Circulating Inflammation Signature in Non-Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Potential Role for Individualized Induction Chemotherapy

Purpose

We sought to assess the prognostic and predictive value of a circulating inflammation signature (CISIG) and develop CISIG-based tools for predicting prognosis and guiding individualized induction chemotherapy (ICT) in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively collected a candidate inflammatory biomarker panel from patients with NPC treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2012 and 2017. We developed the CISIG using candidate biomarkers identified by a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model. The Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the CISIG prognostic value. A CISIG-based prediction model was constructed, validated, and assessed. Potential stratified ICT treatment effects were examined.

Results

A total of 1149 patients were analyzed. Nine biomarkers selected by LASSO regression in the training cohort were used to construct the CISIG, including hyaluronidase, laminin, procollagen III, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, high-density lipoprotein, lactate dehydrogenase, and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio. CISIG was an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival (DFS; hazard ratio: 2.65, 95% confidence interval: 1.93–3.64; P < 0.001). High CISIG group (>−0.2) was associated with worse 3-year DFS than low CISIG group in both the training (67.5% vs 88.3%, P < 0.001) and validation cohorts (72.3% vs 85.1%, P < 0.001). We constructed and validated a CISIG-based nomogram, which showed better performance than the clinical stage and Epstein–Barr virus DNA classification methods. A significant interaction between CISIG and the ICT treatment effect was observed (P for interaction = 0.036). Patients with high CISIG values did not benefit from ICT, whereas patients with low CISIG values significantly benefited from ICT.

Conclusion

The developed CISIG, based on a circulating inflammatory biomarker panel, adds prognostic information for patients with NPC. The proposed CISIG-based tools offer individualized risk estimation to facilitate suitable ICT candidate identification.

Capecitabine maintenance therapy after induction chemotherapy in newly diagnosed metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: An open-label, randomized, controlled, phase trial

6044

Background: Capecitabine maintenance therapy improves outcomes in various tumor types, but minimal data are available on the effect of capecitabine maintenance therapy in metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We aimed to investigate whether capecitabine maintenance therapy would prolong the progression-free survival (PFS) of newly diagnosed metastatic NPC, in comparison to best supportive care (BSC). Methods: This was an open-label, randomized, controlled, phase trial. Eligible patients for maintenance randomisation were aged 18-65 years old with newly diagnosed metastatic NPC at the Sun Yat-Sun University Cancer Center (SYSUCC), had completed 4 to 6 cycles of induction chemotherapy as per protocol and had achieved disease control to protocol treatment, including capecitabine. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to capecitabine maintenance (oral 1,250 mg/m2/day on days 1-14 every 21 days) for up to 24 months with BSC or BSC alone. The primary endpoint was PFS. The secondary endpoints included overall survival, duration of response, objective response rate and adverse effects. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02460419 and is ongoing and no longer recruiting new patients. Results: Between May 16th, 2015, and January 9th, 2020, 140 metastatic NPC patients were screened, and 104 eligible patients were randomly assigned to capecitabine maintenance plus BSC (n = 52) or BSC alone (n = 52). After a median follow-up of 33.1 months (IQR, 21.5-50.7 months), median PFS was 35.2 months in the capecitabine maintenance group and 9.1 months in the BSC group (HR: 0.426; 95%CI: 0.248-0.731, P = 0.001). The most commongrade 3 or 4 adverse events during maintenance therapy were hand-foot syndrome (10.0%), nausea/vomiting (6.0%), fatigue (4.0%), and mucositis (4.0%). Totally 37 deaths occurred during follow-up, 14 (26.9%) in the capecitabine maintenance group and 23 (44.2%) in the BSC group. Overall survival data was immature. No deaths in the capecitabine maintenance group were deemed treatment related. Conclusions: Capecitabine maintenance significantly improved PFS in patients with newly diagnosed metastatic NPC who achieved disease control after induction chemotherapy compared to BSC and exhibited low grade and manageable toxicities. Clinical trial information: NCT02460419.

Predict the benefit of metronomic capecitabine maintenance in early-stage triple-negative breast cancer: Results from the SYSUCC-001 study

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Background: Recent clinical trials and meta-analysis have suggested the benefit of adding capecitabine to standard chemotherapy in early-stage triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). We aimed to develop an individualized prediction model to quantify the clinical benefit of metronomic capecitabine maintenance in TNBC. Methods: Patients from the SYSUCC-001 trial, randomized to standard treatment with or without metronomic capecitabine maintenance, were pooled. Candidate covariates included age, tumor size, lymph node, histological grade, Ki-67 percentage, lymphovascular invasion, chemotherapy regimen and capecitabine medication. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS). The nonlinear effect of continuous covariate was modelled by restricted cubic spline. We developed a survival prediction model using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: A total of 434 patients were recruited (306 in development cohort and 128 in validation cohort). The estimated 5-year DFS in the development cohort and validation cohort were 77.8% (95% CI, 72.9-82.7%) and 78.2% (95% CI, 70.9-85.5%), respectively. Age and lymph node had significant nonlinear effects on DFS. Four covariates significantly associated with DFS in the final prediction model were age, lymph node, lymphovascular invasion and capecitabine medication. The model demonstrated suitable calibration and fair discrimination ability with a C-index of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.662-0.781) and 0.764 (95% CI, 0.668-0.859) in the development cohort and validation cohort, respectively. We design an easy-to-use online calculator based on the model, capable of predicting capecitabine maintenance benefit. Conclusions: The evidence-based prediction model could identify those patients who most warrant metronomic capecitabine maintenance and thus help treatment decision making in daily clinical practice. Clinical trial information: NCT01112826.

Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Associated Hepatotoxicity in Primary Liver Cancer Versus Other Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Overall risks of hepatotoxicity with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have yet to be compared in primary liver cancers to other solid tumors.

METHODS

We reviewed data from the PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases, and assessed the risk of hepatotoxicity associated with ICIs.

RESULTS

A total of 117 trials were eligible for the meta-analysis, including 7 trials with primary liver cancers. The most common hepatotoxicity was ALT elevation (incidence of all grade 5.29%, 95% CI 4.52-6.20) and AST elevation (incidence of all grade 5.88%, 95% CI 4.96-6.97). The incidence of all grade ALT and AST elevation was 6.01% and 6.84% for anti-PD-1 (95% CI 5.04-7.18/5.69-8.25) and 3.60% and 3.72% for anti-PD-L1 (95% CI 2.72-4.76/2.82-4.94; p< 0.001/p<0.001). The incidence of ≥ grade 3 ALT and AST elevation was 1.54% and 1.48% for anti-PD-1 (95% CI 1.19-1.58/1.07-2.04) and 1.03% and 1.08% for anti-PD-L1 (95% CI 0.71-1.51/0.80-1.45; p= 0.002/p<0.001). The incidence of all grade ALT and AST elevation was 13.3% and 14.2% in primary liver cancers (95% CI 11.1-16.0 and 9.93-20.36) vs. 4.92% and 5.38% in other solid tumors (95% CI 4.21-5.76 and 4.52-5.76 in other solid tumors; p <0.001/p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that anti-PD-1 is associated with a higher risk of all- and high-grade hepatotoxicity compared to anti-PD-L1, and primary liver cancers are associated with a higher risk of all- and high-grade hepatotoxicity compared to other solid tumors.

Induction chemotherapy with lobaplatin and fluorouracil versus cisplatin and fluorouracil followed by chemoradiotherapy in patients with stage III-IVB nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Cisplatin-based induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy in the treatment of patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma has been recommended in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network Guidelines. However, cisplatin is associated with poor patient compliance and has notable side-effects. Lobaplatin, a third-generation platinum drug, has shown promising antitumour activity against several malignancies with less toxicity. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the efficacy of lobaplatin-based induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy over a cisplatin-based regimen in patients with locoregional, advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

METHODS

In this open-label, non-inferiority, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial done at five hospitals in China, patients aged 18-60 years with previously untreated, non-keratinising stage III-IVB nasopharyngeal carcinoma; Karnofsky performance-status score of at least 70; and adequate haematological, renal, and hepatic function were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intravenously either lobaplatin-based (lobaplatin 30 mg/m² on days 1 and 22, and fluorouracil 800 mg/m² on days 1-5 and 22-26 for two cycles) or cisplatin-based (cisplatin 100 mg/m² on days 1 and 22, and fluorouracil 800 mg/m² on days 1-5 and 22-26 for two cycles) induction chemotherapy, followed by concurrent lobaplatin-based (two cycles of intravenous lobaplatin 30 mg/m² every 3 weeks plus intensity-modulated radiotherapy) or cisplatin-based (two cycles of intravenous cisplatin 100 mg/m² every 3 weeks plus intensity-modulated radiotherapy) chemoradiotherapy. Total radiation doses of 68-70 Gy (for the sum of the volumes of the primary tumour and enlarged retropharyngeal nodes), 62-68 Gy (for the volume of clinically involved gross cervical lymph nodes), 60 Gy (for the high-risk target volume), and 54 Gy (for the low-risk target volume), were administered in 30-32 fractions, 5 days per week. Randomisation was done centrally at the clinical trial centre of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Centre by means of computer-generated random number allocation with a block design (block size of four) stratified according to disease stage and treatment centre. Treatment assignment was known to both clinicians and patients. The primary endpoint was 5-year progression-free survival, analysed in both the intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations. If the upper limit of the 95% CI for the difference in 5-year progression-free survival between the lobaplatin-based and cisplatin-based groups did not exceed 10%, non-inferiority was met. Adverse events were analysed in all patients who received at least one cycle of induction chemotherapy. This trial is registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-TRC-13003285 and is closed.

FINDINGS

From June 7, 2013, to June 16, 2015, 515 patients were assessed for eligibility and 502 patients were enrolled: 252 were randomly assigned to the lobaplatin-based group and 250 to the cisplatin-based group. After a median follow-up of 75·3 months (IQR 69·9-81·1) in the intention-to-treat population, 5-year progression-free survival was 75·0% (95% CI 69·7-80·3) in the lobaplatin-based group and 75·5% (70·0 to 81·0) in the cisplatin-based group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·69-1·39; log-rank p=0·92), with a difference of 0·5% (95% CI -7·1 to 8·1; p_{non-inferiority}=0·0070). In the per-protocol population, the 5-year progression-free survival was 74·8% (95% CI 69·3 to 80·3) in the lobaplatin-based group and 76·4% (70·9 to 81·9) in the cisplatin-based group (HR 1·04, 95% CI 0·73 to 1·49; log-rank p=0·83), with a difference of 1·6% (-6·1 to 9·3; p_{non-inferiority}=0·016). 63 (25%) of 252 patients in the lobaplatin-based group and 63 (25%) of 250 patients in the cisplatin-based group had a progression-free survival event in the intention-to-treat population; 62 (25%) of 246 patients in the lobaplatin-based group and 58 (25%) of 237 patients in the cisplatin-based group had a progression-free survival event in the per-protocol population. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were mucositis (102 [41%] of 252 in the lobaplatin-based group vs 99 [40%] of 249 in the cisplatin-based group), leucopenia (39 [16%] vs 56 [23%]), and neutropenia (25 [10%] vs 59 [24%]). No treatment-related deaths were reported.

INTERPRETATION

Lobaplatin-based induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy resulted in non-inferior survival and fewer toxic effects than cisplatin-based therapy. The results of our trial indicate that lobaplatin-based induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy might be a promising alternative regimen to cisplatin-based treatment in patients with locoregional, advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

FUNDING

National Science and Technology Pillar Program, International Cooperation Project of Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province, Planned Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Province, and Cultivation Foundation for the Junior Teachers at Sun Yat-sen University.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Benefit of chemotherapy in stage III nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Analysis of the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

OBJECTIVES

Chemoradiotherapy is the standard treatment for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We aimed to reveal factors associated with chemotherapy use and evaluate chemotherapy's benefit in patients with stage III NPC stratified by lymph node status.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Overall, 1452 patients with stage III NPC who underwent radiotherapy with (n = 1361) or without (n = 91) chemotherapy were identified in the SEER database. We examined predictors for chemotherapy use using logistic regression analysis. We compared all-cause mortality (ACM) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used to evaluate the benefit of chemotherapy. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach was applied to reduce selection bias and adjust for competing risks. Subgroup analyses and interaction effects were explored.

RESULTS

Factors including age, sex, insured status, tumor grade, and N category were associated with chemotherapy use. Chemotherapy was associated with decreased 5-year ACM (31.4% vs. 48.4%, p < 0.001) and CSM (25.5% vs. 35.8%; p = 0.017) in stage III NPC patients. The IPTW-adjusted hazard ratio for 5-year ACM was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.38-0.86, p = 0.008), whereas IPTW-adjusted sub-hazard ratio for 5-year CSM was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.42-0.93, p = 0.003). A significant interaction effect existed between lymph node status and treatment modality. Chemotherapy offered a significant survival benefit in node-positive stage III NPC. However, no chemotherapy benefit for the node-negative disease was observed.

CONCLUSION

Chemotherapy adds survival benefit in stage III NPC, especially in patients with node-positive disease. The magnitude of chemotherapy benefit in node-negative stage III NPC warrants further investigation.

[Advances in the study of occult malignant tumor-related pyogenic liver abscesses in the digestive system]

Pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) accompanied by occult malignant tumors is a rare kind of life-threatening disease. Studies have shown that it can predict the occurrence of cancer, especially hepatobiliary and colorectal cancer. The risk of combined occult primary liver cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, and gastrointestinal cancer is high in PLA patients. Malignant tumor-related PLA lacks specific symptoms and signs. The iodine concentration ratio between the energy spectrum CT lesions and normal liver tissue is of certain value in the differentiation of liver cancer and liver abscess. Computed tomography colonography has a dual role. It can screen patients with PLA for occult colorectal cancer and determine the treatment response of abscess lesions. Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli is the main microorganism of PLA related to colorectal cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. PLA treatment related to hepatobiliary malignant tumor has high complications and mortality, and poor prognosis. Most occult colorectal cancers are in the early stage, and their early detection and prognosis are better than those of PLA patients combined with hepatobiliary malignancies.

Modeling Sarcopenia to Predict Survival for Patients With Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Receiving Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

Background

The present study aimed to construct a prognostic nomogram including Epstein-Barr virus DNA (EBV-DNA) and sarcopenia in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) receiving concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).

Methods

In this retrospective analysis, we studied 1,045 patients with NPC who had been treated with CCRT between 2010 and 2014. Sarcopenia was determined using routine pre-radiotherapy computed tomography scans of the third cervical vertebrae. A new S-E grade was constructed using a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses determined cutoff values of sarcopenia and plasma EBV-DNA. The nomogram was developed base on the sarcopenia-EBV (S-E) grade and traditional prognostic factors. A calibration curve, time-dependent ROC, decision curve analysis, and the concordance index (C-index) determined the accuracy of prediction and discrimination of the nomogram, and were compared with TNM staging system and a traditional nomogram.

Results

Patient survival was significantly different when sarcopenia (P < 0.001) or EBV-DNA (P = 0.001) were used and they continued to be independent prognostic factors for survival upon univariate (P < 0.001, P = 0.002, respectively) and multivariate (P < 0.001, P = 0.015, respectively) analyses. Predicting overall survival (OS) was more accurate using the S-E grade than using TNM staging and sarcopenia or EBV-DNA alone. Nomogram B (model with sarcopenia) or nomogram A (model without sarcopenia) were then developed based on the identified independent prognostic factors. Comparing nomogram prediction with actual observation showed good agreement among the calibration curves for probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. Predicted survival (C-index = 0.77) of nomogram B was statistically higher than that of nomogram A (0.676, P = 0.020) and TNM staging (0.604, P < 0.001). Risk group stratification could distinguish between survival curves within respective TNM stages (all stages, P < 0.001; stage III, P < 0.001; stage IV, P = 0.002).

Conclusions

The sarcopenia-EBV DNA nomogram allowed more accurate prediction of prognosis for patients with NPC receiving CCRT.

A Scoring System Based on Nutritional and Inflammatory Parameters to Predict the Efficacy of First-Line Chemotherapy and Survival Outcomes for De Novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Purpose

We aimed to develop a simple scoring system based on baseline inflammatory and nutritional parameters to predict the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy and survival outcomes for de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC).

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively collected ten candidate inflammatory and nutritional parameters from de novo mNPC patients who received platinum-based first-line chemotherapy treatment. We examined the effects of these ten candidate variables on progression-free survival (PFS) using the Cox regression model. We built a risk-scoring system based on the regression coefficients associated with the identified independent prognostic factors. The predictive accuracy of the scoring system was evaluated and independently validated.

Results

A total of 460 patients were analyzed. Four independent prognostic factors were identified in a training cohort and were used to construct the scoring system, including nutritional risk index, C-reactive protein level, alkaline phosphatase level, and lactate dehydrogenase level. Based on the score obtained from the scoring system, we stratified patients into three prognostic subgroups (low: 0–1 point, intermediate: 2–3 points, and high: 4 points) associated with significantly different disease control rates (94.7% vs. 92.5% vs. 66.0%, respectively) and survival outcomes (3-year PFS: 55.8% vs. 29.1% vs. 11.9%, respectively). The scoring system had a good performance for the prediction of short-term disease control (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]: 0.701) and long-term survival outcomes (time-dependent AUC for 5-year PFS: 0.713). The results were internally validated using an independent cohort (AUC for predicting disease control: 0.697; time-dependent AUC for 5-year PFS: 0.713).

Conclusion

We developed and validated a clinically useful risk-scoring system that could predict the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy and survival outcomes in de novo mNPC patients. This system may help clinicians to design personalized treatment strategies.

Age-dependent changes of gender disparities in nasopharyngeal carcinoma survival

Background

The mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is usually lower in females than in males, but the underlying mechanism remains largely unknown. We sought to describe the age-dependent patterns of gender disparities in NPC survival and explore the extent to which the confounder or mediation effects could explain these differences.

Methods

A total of 11,980 patients with NPC were reviewed. The effect of gender on cancer-specific survival (CSS) was assessed using Cox regression analyses. Two propensity score methods were conducted to control the confounding bias between genders. Restricted cubic spline regression was used to model the association of gender and age with mortality flexibly. Multiple mediation analysis was applied to estimate the direct or indirect effect of gender on CSS.

Results

Overall, 7026 males and 2320 females were analyzed. The crude CSS was significantly higher for females than males (10-year CSS 78.4% vs 70.3%; P < 0.001). Similar results were observed after adjusting for confounding bias. Gender disparities in NPC-specific mortality were age-dependent, where they would increase with age until peaking at age 55–60 years and decline rapidly afterward. Subgroup analyses revealed that females’ survival advantage was observed in the 18–45 age group and was more prominent in the 46–55 age group, but vanished in the > 55 age group. Either confounder or mediation effects only accounted for approximately 20% of the gender differences.

Conclusions

Gender disparities in cancer-specific mortality for patients with NPC were age-dependent. The differences mostly cannot be explained by confounder or mediation effects.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13293-021-00361-8.

Small single perivascular hepatocellular carcinoma: comparisons of radiofrequency ablation and microwave ablation by using propensity score analysis

Objectives

We aimed to compare the therapeutic outcomes of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and microwave ablation (MWA) as first-line therapies in patients with small single perivascular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A total of 144 eligible patients with small (≤ 3 cm) single perivascular (proximity to hepatic and portal veins) HCC who underwent RFA (N = 70) or MWA (N = 74) as first-line treatment were included. The overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local tumor progression (LTP) rates between the two ablation modalities were compared. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method was used to reduce selection bias. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the type of hepatic vessels.

Results

After a median follow-up time of 38.2 months, there were no significant differences in OS (5-year OS: RFA 77.7% vs. MWA 74.6%; p = 0.600) and DFS (5-year DFS: RFA 24.7% vs. MWA 40.4%; p = 0.570). However, a significantly higher LTP rate was observed in the RFA group than the MWA group (5-year LTP: RFA 24.3% vs. MWA 8.4%; p = 0.030). IPTW-adjusted analyses revealed similar results. The treatment modality (RFA vs. MWA: HR 7.861, 95% CI 1.642–37.635, p = 0.010) was an independent prognostic factor for LTP. We observed a significant interaction effect of ablation modality and type of peritumoral vessel on LTP (p = 0.034). For patients with periportal HCC, the LTP rate was significantly higher in the RFA group than in the MWA group (p = 0.045). However, this difference was not observed in patients with perivenous HCC (p = 0.116).

Conclusions

In patients with a small single periportal HCC, MWA exhibited better tumor control than RFA.

Key Points

• Microwave ablation exhibited better local tumor control than radiofrequency ablation for small single periportal hepatocellular carcinoma.

• There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect of ablation modality and type of peritumoral vessel on local tumor progression.

• The type of peritumoral vessel is vital in choosing ablation modalities for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-020-07571-5.

[Effects of ilioinguinal composite tissue flaps in repairing skin and soft tissue defects on hand or foot]

Objective: To explore the effects of ilioinguinal composite tissue flaps in repairing skin and soft tissue defects on hand or foot and reconstructing the flexion and extension functions of wrist, finger, ankle, and toe. Methods: From February 2012 to March 2018, 4, 5, and 3 patients (11 males and 1 female, 23-62 years old) with skin and soft tissue defects on hand or foot were admitted to Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Zhongmu County of Henan Province, Henan Armed Police Corps Hospital, and the Affiliated Jiangyin Hospital of Medical College of Southeast University, respectively. Five patients had hand defects, and 7 patients had foot defects. The areas of skin and soft tissue defects after debridement were 10 cm×8 cm-15 cm×10 cm. The ilioinguinal composite tissue flaps were designed and resected according to the wound area and the length of tendon defects, and the areas of flaps were 10 cm×8 cm-15 cm×12 cm. According to the specific condition of the recipient area, the superficial iliac circumflex artery in the tissue flap was reconstructed by end-to-side anastomosis in 2 patients and end-to-end anastomosis in 1 patient with ulnar artery, end-to-side anastomosis in 4 patients with the dorsal foot artery, end-to-side anastomosis in 2 patients with the posterior tibial artery, and end-to-end anastomosis in 1 patient with the external tarsal foot artery in the recipient area, and the superficial epigastric artery in the tissue flap was reconstructed by end-to-side anastomosis in 1 patient with the radial artery and end-to-end anastomosis in 1 patient with the ulnar artery in the recipient area. The donor sites were sutured directly or repaired with medium split-thickness skin grafts. The survival of tissue flap after the operation and the appearance, texture, and the two-point discrimination distance of the tissue flaps during follow-up were observed. The hand function and foot function were evaluated by the total active movement standard of hand and the Maryland foot score standard, respectively. Results: All the tissue flaps in 12 patients survived. During follow-up of 6-36 months after operation, the tissue flaps were slightly bloated, with linear scars at the junction site in the recipient area, and the two-point discrimination distances of the tissue flaps were 15-22 mm. The hand function was excellent in 3 cases, good in 1 case, and fair in 1 case, and the foot function was excellent in 4 cases, good in 2 cases, and fair in 1 case, and all the patients were satisfied with the function and appearance of hand or foot. Conclusions: The ilioinguinal composite tissue flaps can repair the hand and foot wounds and reconstruct the flexion and extension functions of wrist, finger, ankle, and toe at the same time, which is an effective method to repair this kind of defects.