Using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model the evolution of interacting populations

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process plays a major role in the analysis of the evolution of phenotypic traits along phylogenies. The standard OU process includes random perturbations and stabilizing selection and assumes that species evolve independently. However, evolving species may interact through various ecological process and also exchange genes especially in plants. This is particularly true if we want to study phenotypic evolution among diverging populations within species. In this work we present a straightforward statistical approach with analytical solutions that allows for the inclusion of adaptation and migration in a common phylogenetic framework, which can also be useful for studying local adaptation among populations within the same species. We furthermore present a detailed simulation study that clearly indicates the adverse effects of ignoring migration. Similarity between species due to migration could be misinterpreted as very strong convergent evolution without proper correction for these additional dependencies. Finally, we show that our model can be interpreted in terms of ecological interactions between species, providing a general framework for the evolution of traits between "interacting" species or populations.

Ecological interactions and the Netflix problem

Species interactions are a key component of ecosystems but we generally have an incomplete picture of who-eats-who in a given community. Different techniques have been devised to predict species interactions using theoretical models or abundances. Here, we explore the K nearest neighbour approach, with a special emphasis on recommendation, along with a supervised machine learning technique. Recommenders are algorithms developed for companies like Netflix to predict whether a customer will like a product given the preferences of similar customers. These machine learning techniques are well-suited to study binary ecological interactions since they focus on positive-only data. By removing a prey from a predator, we find that recommenders can guess the missing prey around 50% of the times on the first try, with up to 881 possibilities. Traits do not improve significantly the results for the K nearest neighbour, although a simple test with a supervised learning approach (random forests) show we can predict interactions with high accuracy using only three traits per species. This result shows that binary interactions can be predicted without regard to the ecological community given only three variables: body mass and two variables for the species' phylogeny. These techniques are complementary, as recommenders can predict interactions in the absence of traits, using only information about other species' interactions, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests base their predictions on traits only but do not exploit other species' interactions. Further work should focus on developing custom similarity measures specialized for ecology to improve the KNN algorithms and using richer data to capture indirect relationships between species.

Conspecific aggregations mitigate the effects of ocean acidification on calcification of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa

In densely populated communities, such as coral reefs, organisms can modify the physical and chemical environment for neighbouring individuals. We tested the hypothesis that colony density (12 colonies each placed ∼0.5 cm apart versus ∼8 cm apart) can modulate the physiological response (measured through rates of calcification, photosynthesis and respiration in the light and dark) of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa to partial pressure of CO₂ (P_CO2 ) treatments (∼400 μatm and ∼1200 μatm) by altering the seawater flow regimes experienced by colonies placed in aggregations within a flume at a single flow speed. While light calcification decreased 20% under elevated versus ambient P_CO2  for colonies in low-density aggregations, light calcification of high-density aggregations increased 23% at elevated versus ambient P_CO2 As a result, densely aggregated corals maintained calcification rates over 24 h that were comparable to those maintained under ambient P_CO2 , despite a 45% decrease in dark calcification at elevated versus ambient P_CO2 Additionally, densely aggregated corals experienced reduced flow speeds and higher seawater retention times between colonies owing to the formation of eddies. These results support recent indications that neighbouring organisms, such as the conspecific coral colonies in the present example, can create small-scale refugia from the negative effects of ocean acidification.

Balancing ecosystem function, services and disservices resulting from expanding goose populations

As goose populations increase in abundance, their influence on ecological processes is increasing. We review the evidence for key ecological functions of wild goose populations in Eurasia and North America, including aquatic invertebrate and plant propagule transport, nutrient deposition in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the influence of goose populations on vegetation biomass, carbon storage and methane emission, species diversity and disease transmission. To estimate the implications of their growing abundance for humans, we explore how these functions contribute to the provision of ecosystem services and disservices. We assess the weight, extent and trends among such impacts, as well as the balance of their value to society. We examine key unresolved issues to enable a more balanced assessment of the economic costs or benefits of migratory geese along their flyways, including the spatial and temporal variation in services and their contrasting value to different user groups. Many ecological functions of geese are concluded to provide neither services nor disservices and, ecosystem disservices currently appear to outweigh services, although this varies between regions. We consider an improved quantification of ecosystem services and disservices, and how these vary along population flyways with respect to variation in valuing certain cultural services, and under different management scenarios aimed at reducing their disservices, essential for a more balanced management of goose populations.

Investigation of road salts and biotic stressors on freshwater wetland communities

The application of road deicing salts has led to the salinization of freshwater ecosystems in northern regions worldwide. Increased chloride concentrations in lakes, streams, ponds, and wetlands may negatively affect freshwater biota, potentially threatening ecosystem services. In an effort to reduce the effects of road salt, operators have increased the use of salt alternatives, yet we lack an understanding of how these deicers affect aquatic communities. We examined the direct and indirect effects of the most commonly used road salt (NaCl) and a proprietary salt mixture (NaCl, KCl, MgCl₂), at three environmentally relevant concentrations (150, 470, and 780 mg Cl^-/L) on freshwater wetland communities in combination with one of three biotic stressors (control, predator cues, and competitors). The communities contained periphyton, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and two tadpole species (American toads, Anaxyrus americanus; wood frogs, Lithobates sylvaticus). Overall, we found the two road salts did not interact with the natural stressors. Both salts decreased pH and reduced zooplankton abundance. The strong decrease in zooplankton abundance in the highest NaCl concentration caused a trophic cascade that resulted in increased phytoplankton abundance. The highest NaCl concentration also reduced toad activity. For the biotic stressors, predatory stress decreased whereas competitive stress increased the activity of both tadpole species. Wood frog survival, time to metamorphosis, and mass at metamorphosis all decreased under competitive stress whereas toad time to metamorphosis increased and mass at metamorphosis decreased. Road salts and biotic stressors can both affect freshwater communities, but their effects are not interactive.

Life history plasticity does not confer resilience to environmental change in the mole salamander (Ambystoma talpoideum)

Plasticity in life history strategies can be advantageous for species that occupy spatially or temporally variable environments. We examined how phenotypic plasticity influences responses of the mole salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, to disturbance events at the St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge (SMNWR), FL, USA from 2009 to 2014. We observed periods of extensive drought early in the study, in contrast to high rainfall and expansive flooding events in later years. Flooding facilitated colonization of predatory fishes to isolated wetlands across the refuge. We employed multistate occupancy models to determine how this natural experiment influenced the occurrence of aquatic larvae and paedomorphic adults and what implications this may have for the population. We found that, in terms of occurrence, responses to environmental variation differed between larvae and paedomorphs, but plasticity (i.e. the ability to metamorphose rather than remain in aquatic environment) was not sufficient to buffer populations from declining as a result of environmental perturbations. Drought and fish presence negatively influenced occurrence dynamics of larval and paedomorphic mole salamanders and, consequently, contributed to observed short-term declines of this species. Overall occurrence of larval salamanders decreased from 0.611 in 2009 to 0.075 in 2014 and paedomorph occurrence decreased from 0.311 in 2009 to 0.121 in 2014. Although variation in selection pressures has likely maintained this polyphenism previously, our results suggest that continued changes in environmental variability and the persistence of fish in isolated wetlands could lead to a loss of paedomorphosis in the SMNWR population and, ultimately, impact regional persistence in the future.

The outcomes of most aggressive interactions among closely related bird species are asymmetric

Aggressive interactions among closely related species are common, and can play an important role as a selective pressure shaping species traits and assemblages. The nature of this selective pressure depends on whether the outcomes of aggressive contests are asymmetric between species (i.e., one species is consistently dominant), yet few studies have estimated the prevalence of asymmetric versus symmetric outcomes to aggressive contests. Here we use previously published data involving 26,212 interactions between 270 species pairs of birds from 26 taxonomic families to address the question: How often are aggressive interactions among closely related bird species asymmetric? We define asymmetry using (i) the proportion of contests won by one species, and (ii) statistical tests for asymmetric outcomes of aggressive contests. We calculate these asymmetries using data summed across different sites for each species pair, and compare results to asymmetries calculated using data separated by location. We find that 80% of species pairs had aggressive outcomes where one species won 80% or more of aggressive contests. We also find that the majority of aggressive interactions among closely related species show statistically significant asymmetries, and above a sample size of 52 interactions, all outcomes are asymmetric following binomial tests. Species pairs with dominance data from multiple sites showed the same dominance relationship across locations in 93% of the species pairs. Overall, our results suggest that the outcome of aggressive interactions among closely related species are usually consistent and asymmetric, and should thus favor ecological and evolutionary strategies specific to the position of a species within a dominance hierarchy.

A resource-based game theoretical approach for the paradox of the plankton

The maintenance of species diversity is a central focus in ecology. It is not rare to observe more species than the number of limiting resources, especially in plankton communities. However, such high species diversity is hard to achieve in theory under the competitive exclusion principles, known as the plankton paradox. Previous studies often focus on the coexistence of predefined species and ignore the fact that species can evolve. We model multi-resource competitions using evolutionary games, where the number of species fluctuates under extinction and the appearance of new species. The interspecific and intraspecific competitions are captured by a dynamical payoff matrix, which has a size of the number of species. The competition strength (payoff entries) is obtained from comparing the capability of species in consuming resources, which can change over time. This allows for the robust coexistence of a large number of species, providing a possible solution to the plankton paradox.

Chronic nitrate enrichment decreases severity and induces protection against an infectious disease

Excessive fertilisation is one of the most pernicious forms of global change resulting in eutrophication. It has major implications for disease control and the conservation of biodiversity. Yet, the direct link between nutrient enrichment and disease remains largely unexplored. Here, we present the first experimental evidence that chronic nitrate enrichment decreases severity and induces protection against an infectious disease. Specifically, this study shows that nitrate concentrations ranging between 50 and 250mgNO3(-)/l reduce Gyrodactylus turnbulli infection intensity in two populations of Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata, and that the highest nitrate concentration can even clean the parasites from the fish. This added to the fact that host nitrate pre-exposure altered the fish epidermal structure and reduced parasite intensity, suggests that nitrate protected the host against the disease. Nitrate treatments also caused fish mortality. As we used ecologically-relevant nitrate concentrations, and guppies are top-consumers widely used for mosquito bio-control in tropical and often nutrient-enriched waters, our results can have major ecological and social implications. In conclusion, this study advocates reducing nitrate level including the legislative threshold to protect the aquatic biota, even though this may control an ectoparasitic disease.

Species interactions and chemical stress: combined effects of intraspecific and interspecific interactions and pyrene on Daphnia magna population dynamics

Species interactions are often suggested as an important factor when assessing the effects of chemicals on higher levels of biological organization. Nevertheless, the contribution of intraspecific and interspecific interactions to chemical effects on populations is often overlooked. In the present study, Daphnia magna populations were initiated with different levels of intraspecific competition, interspecific competition, and predation and exposed to pyrene pulses. Generalized linear models were used to test which of these factors significantly explained population size and structure at different time points. Pyrene had a negative effect on total population densities, with effects being more pronounced on smaller D. magna individuals. Among all species interactions tested, predation had the largest negative effect on population densities. Predation and high initial intraspecific competition were shown to interact antagonistically with pyrene exposure. This was attributed to differences in population structure before pyrene exposure and pyrene-induced reductions in predation pressure by Chaoborus sp. larvae. The present study provides empirical evidence that species interactions within and between populations can alter the response of aquatic populations to chemical exposure. Therefore, such interactions are important factors to be considered in ecological risk assessments.

Niche distribution and influence of environmental parameters in marine microbial communities: a systematic review

Associations between microorganisms occur extensively throughout Earth’s oceans. Understanding how microbial communities are assembled and how the presence or absence of species is related to that of others are central goals of microbial ecology. Here, we investigate co-occurrence associations between marine prokaryotes by combining 180 new and publicly available metagenomic datasets from different oceans in a large-scale meta-analysis. A co-occurrence network was created by calculating correlation scores between the abundances of microorganisms in metagenomes. A total of 1,906 correlations amongst 297 organisms were detected, segregating them into 11 major groups that occupy distinct ecological niches. Additionally, by analyzing the oceanographic parameters measured for a selected number of sampling sites, we characterized the influence of environmental variables over each of these 11 groups. Clustering organisms into groups of taxa that have similar ecology, allowed the detection of several significant correlations that could not be observed for the taxa individually.

Missing checkerboards? An absence of competitive signal in Alnus-associated ectomycorrhizal fungal communities

A number of recent studies suggest that interspecific competition plays a key role in determining the structure of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal communities. Despite this growing consensus, there has been limited study of ECM fungal community dynamics in abiotically stressful environments, which are often dominated by positive rather than antagonistic interactions. In this study, we examined the ECM fungal communities associated with the host genus Alnus, which live in soils high in both nitrate and acidity. The nature of ECM fungal species interactions (i.e., antagonistic, neutral, or positive) was assessed using taxon co-occurrence and DNA sequence abundance correlational analyses. ECM fungal communities were sampled from root tips or mesh in-growth bags in three monodominant A. rubra plots at a site in Oregon, USA and identified using Illumina-based amplification of the ITS1 gene region. We found a total of 175 ECM fungal taxa; 16 of which were closely related to known Alnus-associated ECM fungi. Contrary to previous studies of ECM fungal communities, taxon co-occurrence analyses on both the total and Alnus-associated ECM datasets indicated that the ECM fungal communities in this system were not structured by interspecific competition. Instead, the co-occurrence patterns were consistent with either random assembly or significant positive interactions. Pair-wise correlational analyses were also more consistent with neutral or positive interactions. Taken together, our results suggest that interspecific competition does not appear to determine the structure of all ECM fungal communities and that abiotic conditions may be important in determining the specific type of interaction occurring among ECM fungi.

Using an Ecosystem Approach to complement protection schemes based on organism-level endpoints

Radiation protection goals for ecological resources are focussed on ecological structures and functions at population-, community-, and ecosystem-levels. The current approach to radiation safety for non-human biota relies on organism-level endpoints, and as such is not aligned with the stated overarching protection goals of international agencies. Exposure to stressors can trigger non-linear changes in ecosystem structure and function that cannot be predicted from effects on individual organisms. From the ecological sciences, we know that important interactive dynamics related to such emergent properties determine the flows of goods and services in ecological systems that human societies rely upon. A previous Task Group of the IUR (International Union of Radioecology) has presented the rationale for adding an Ecosystem Approach to the suite of tools available to manage radiation safety. In this paper, we summarize the arguments for an Ecosystem Approach and identify next steps and challenges ahead pertaining to developing and implementing a practical Ecosystem Approach to complement organism-level endpoints currently used in radiation safety.

Evolutionary history determines how plant productivity responds to phylogenetic diversity and species richness

The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function has received a great deal of attention in ecological research and recent results, from re-analyses, suggest that ecosystem function improves with increases in phylogenetic diversity. However, many of these results have been generalized across a range of different species and clades, and plants with different evolutionary histories could display different relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem function. To experimentally test this hypothesis, we manipulated species richness and phylogenetic diversity using 26 species from two subgenera of the genus Eucalyptus (subgenus Eucalyptus and subgenus Symphyomyrtus). We found that plant biomass (a measurement of ecosystem function) sometimes, but not always, responded to increases in species richness and phylogenetic diversity. Specifically, Symphyomyrtus plants showed a positive response while no comparable effect was observed for Eucalyptus plants, showing that responses to biodiversity can vary across different phylogenetic groups. Our results show that the impacts of evolutionary history may complicate the relationship between the diversity of plant communities and plant biomass.

Species composition of a soil invertebrate multi-species test system determines the level of ecotoxicity

A soil multi-species, SMS, experimental test system consisting of the natural microbial community, five collembolan species and a predatory mite along with either Enchytraeus crypticus or the earthworm Eisenia fetida were exposed to α-cypermethrin. A comparison of the performance of these two types of SMSs is given to aid the development of a standard test system. E. fetida had a positive effect on the majority of the species, reducing the negative insecticide effect. E. fetida affected the species sensitivity and decreased the degradation of the insecticide due to the organic matter incorporation of earthworm food. After 8 weeks, the EC50 was 0.76 mg kg(-1) for enchytraeids and ranged between 2.7 and 18.9 mg kg(-1) for collembolans, more sensitive than previously observed with single species. Changes observed in the community structure and function illustrates the strength of a multi-species test system as an ecotoxicological tool compared to single species tests.

Pesticide impacts on predator-prey interactions across two levels of organisation

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of a short pulse exposure of the pyrethroid lambda-cyhalothrin (LC) on the predator and anti-predator behaviour of the same species; Gammarus pulex. Predator behaviour, at the level of the individual, was studied in indoor microcosms using video tracking equipment during simultaneous exposure of the predator (G. pulex) and its prey (Leuctra nigra) during 90 min exposure of 1, 6.6 or 62.1 ngL(-1) LC. During an initial 30 min of exposure, the predator and prey organisms were maintained physically separated, and the actual interaction was studied through the subsequent 60 min of exposure. The anti-predator behaviour of G. pulex (drift suppression in response to the presence of brown trout) was studied in outdoor stream channels during a 90 min pulse exposure to LC (7.4 or 79.5 ngL(-1)) with, or without, brown trout. Based on survival curves for L. nigra we found that the mortality rate for L. nigra significantly decreased during exposure to 6.6 and 62.1 ngL(-1) LC (P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively). We found no significant effects suggesting that G. pulex was repelled by contaminated prey items (P>0.05). We found that the exposure of G. pulex to 7.4 and 79.5 ngL(-1) LC significantly increased drift (from ∼0% to ∼100% in both treatments; P<0.001) independent of the presence of brown trout (P<0.05). In other words, the natural anti-predator behaviour of G. pulex was overruled by the stress response to LC exposure increasing G. pulex predation risk from drift feeding brown trouts. Our results show that the anti-predator and predator behaviour of G. pulex were significantly changed during exposure to very low and environmentally realistic LC concentrations and exposure duration. The potential implications for the field scenario are discussed.