Road traffic injuries and data systems in Egypt: addressing the challenges

OBJECTIVE

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a major cause of global mortality and morbidity, killing approximately 1.3 million people and injuring 20 to 50 million each year. The significance of this public health threat is most pronounced in low- and middle-income countries where 90 percent of the world's road traffic-related fatalities take place. Current estimates for Egypt show a road traffic fatality rate of 42 deaths per 100,000 population-one of the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. RTIs are also responsible for 1.8 percent of all deaths and 2.4 percent of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost in the country. Despite this, studies surrounding this topic are scarce, and reliable data are limited. The overall goal of this article is to define the health impact of RTIs in Egypt and to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each data source for the purpose of improving the current RTI data systems.

METHODS

A 2-pronged approach was undertaken to assess the burden of RTIs in Egypt. First, a thorough literature review was performed using PubMed, Embase, ISIS Web of Knowledge, and Scopus databases. Articles pertaining to Egypt and road traffic injuries were selected for screening. With assistance from Egyptian colleagues, a comprehensive exploration of data sources pertaining to RTIs in Egypt was undertaken and secondary data from these sources were procured for analysis.

RESULTS

The literature review yielded a total of 20 studies, of which 6 were multi-country and 5 were hospital-based studies. None examined risk factors such as speeding, alcohol, or seat belt use. Secondary data sources were acquired from national hospital-based injury surveillance; a community-based health survey; pre-hospital injury surveillance; the Ministry of Transport; the General Authority for Roads, Bridges and Land Transport; death certificates; and the central agency for public motorization and statistics. Risk factor data are also limited from these sources.

CONCLUSION

The results of this article clearly highlight the significant burden that road traffic injuries pose on the health of the Egyptian population. The hospital-based injury surveillance system that has been established in the country and the use of International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) coding brings the system very closely in line with international guidelines. There is, however, some considerable room for improvement, including the need to extend the coverage of the surveillance system, the inclusion of injury severity scores and disability indicators, and standardization of the sometimes rather disparate sources from various sectors in order to maximally capture the true burden of RTIs.

Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children (PREDIC): a pilot study from Matlab, Bangladesh

Childhood drowning is a major public health problem that has been neglected in many low- and middle-income countries. In Matlab, rural Bangladesh, more than 40% of child deaths aged 1-4 years are due to drowning.

AIM

The main objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate a childhood drowning risk prediction index.

METHODOLOGY

A literature review was carried out to document risk factors identified for childhood drowning in Bangladesh. The Newacheck model for special health care needs for children was adapted and applied to construct a childhood drowning risk index called "Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children" (PREDIC). Finally, the proposed PREDIC Index was applied to childhood drowning deaths and compared with the comparison group from children living in Matlab, Bangladesh. This pilot study used t-tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the results.

RESULTS

The PREDIC index was applied to 302 drowning deaths and 624 children 0-4 years old living in Matlab. The results of t-test indicate that the drowned children had a statistically (t=-8.58, p=0.0001) significant higher mean PREDIC score (6.01) than those in comparison group (5.26). Drowning cases had a PREDIC score of 6 or more for 68% of the children however, the comparison group had 43% of the children with score of 6 or more which was statistically significant (t=-7.36, p<0.001). The area under the curve for the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.662.

CONCLUSION

Index score construction was scientifically plausible; and the index is relatively complete, fairly accurate, and practical. The risk index can help identify and target high risk children with drowning prevention programs. PREDIC index needs to be further tested for its accuracy, feasibility and effectiveness in drowning risk reduction in Bangladesh and other countries.

Childhood drowning and traditional rescue measures: case study from Matlab, Bangladesh

Recent mortality data indicate that approximately half a million people drown each year worldwide, with more than 97% of such deaths occurring in low-income and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to examine verbal autopsy data on the circumstances of childhood drowning in Matlab, Bangladesh. The study analysed 10 years (1996-2005) of data which reported 489 deaths in children under 5 years and recorded preimmersion, immersion and postimmersion events. The data summarised household characteristics, age, gender and time of drowning event. The study also examined traditional rescue methods performed on children who were removed from the water OR found drowning. Of 489 deaths, 57% were aged 1-2 years and had a drowning mortality rate of 521 per 100 000 children. Most drowning events occurred during the morning (68%), in ponds (69%), and while the mother was busy doing household chores (70%). Traditional rescue methods were attempted in 55% of children and the most frequently reported measure was to spin the child over head (35%). Only 3% of families tried to perform resuscitation. Verbal autopsy data for Matlab is a useful resource for childhood injury research in a low-income country. The study is one of the first to publish data on traditional rescue practices performed on drowning children in rural Bangladesh. The findings suggest that interventions should be designed using locally identified risk factors to reduce childhood drowning incidents. Community-based resuscitation techniques and emergency medical systems are needed to improve postimmersion recovery of the child.

Burden of fall injuries in Pakistan--analysis of the National Injury Survey of Pakistan

There are no reliable estimates of the burden of fall-related injuries in Pakistan. To assess this burden and develop an epidemiologic profile for these injuries data from the National injury Survey of Pakistan, a cross-sectional population-based survey on injuries, were analysed to determine incidence and relative risks for fall injury. The annual incidence of fall-related injuries was 8.85 per 1000 population per year (95% CI: 6.8-11.3). The mean and median age of individuals injured by falls was 19 years and 10.5 years respectively. Children under the age of 15 years were at a substantially higher risk of fall injuries. Being a student and farmer/labourer/vendorwere associated with a higher risk for falls compared with unemployed. Fall-related injuries are a health burden in Pakistan, especially in children under 15 years of age. This represents a significant loss of healthy life and requires policies to curb this burden in the population.

The burden of road traffic injuries in Nigeria: results of a population-based survey

BACKGROUND

Mortality from road traffic injuries in sub-Saharan Africa is among the highest in the world, yet data from the region are sparse. To date, no multi-site population-based survey on road traffic injuries has been reported from Nigeria, the most populated country in Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the epidemiology of road traffic injury in Nigeria and provide data on the populations affected and risk factors for road traffic injury.

DESIGN

Data from a population-based survey using two-stage stratified cluster sampling. SUBJECTS/ SETTING: Road traffic injury status and demographic information were collected on 3082 respondents living in 553 households in seven of Nigeria's 37 states.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence rates were estimated with confidence intervals based on a Poisson distribution; Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate relative risks for associated factors.

RESULTS

The overall road traffic injury rate was 41 per 1000 population (95% CI 34 to 49), and mortality from road traffic injuries was 1.6 per 1000 population (95% CI 0.5 to 3.8). Motorcycle crashes accounted for 54% of all road traffic injuries. The road traffic injury rates found for rural and urban respondents were not significantly different. Increased risk of injury was associated with male gender among those aged 18-44 years, with a relative risk of 2.96 when compared with women in the same age range (95% CI 1.72 to 5.09, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The road traffic injury rates found in this survey highlight a neglected public health problem in Nigeria. Simple extrapolations from this survey suggest that over 4 million people may be injured and as many as 200 000 potentially killed as the result of road traffic crashes annually in Nigeria. Appropriate interventions in both the health and transport sectors are needed to address this significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Nigeria.

Call for more research on injury from the developing world: results of a bibliometric analysis

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE

Injury prevention is a daunting health challenge as public health systems particularly in the developing world are least prepared to respond to this issue. In 2005, an estimated 5.4 million people worldwide died from injuries over 90 per cent in low- and middle-income countries. The main objective of this bibliometric analysis was to document injury literature published on low- and middle- income countries, and also to quantify literature on road traffic injuries by countries before and after the World Health Day on Road Safety celebrated in April 2004.

METHODS

A systematic search was done using MeSH terms on PubMed. Papers on road traffic injuries were assessed by country/cluster and by publication date for two periods (March 2001-March 2004) and (April 2004-April 2007). The rate of articles published per million population was calculated. Finally, a comparison was made between disease burden in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and quantum of papers published. The search was performed on April 29, 2007.

RESULTS

PubMed had 8.26 million articles listed; of which, 72 per cent were in English and only 2 per cent were on unintentional injuries. For papers in all languages including English on road traffic injuries, 41 per cent were from US, 36 per cent from Europe (other than Eastern Europe). Two most populous countries, China and India contributed only 0.9 and 0.7 per cent papers on road traffic injuries, respectively. On neoplasm there were 280 articles published per million population whereas for road traffic injuries, rate was 4 articles per million population. Northern Africa, India and China had less than one article on road traffic injuries per 1,000 road traffic related deaths. The percentage change in English papers on road traffic injuries for the period 2004-2007 in comparison to period 2001-2004 was +191 per cent for China, +118 per cent for India, and +106 per cent for Middle East. Unintentional injuries overall represented 18 per cent of the burden in terms of DALYs and represented only 2 per cent of all published articles.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

The results noticeably reflected the small proportion of papers on injuries, the dominance of US, and the apparent increase in percentage of road traffic injuries papers from low- and middle- income countries after World Health Day on Road Safety in 2004. Policies on injury prevention and safety in developing countries will be effective if based on local evidence and research, and designed to suit the social, political, and economic circumstances found in developing countries.

Cost-effectiveness of traffic enforcement: case study from Uganda

BACKGROUND

In October 2004, the Ugandan Police department deployed enhanced traffic safety patrols on the four major roads to the capital Kampala.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the costs and potential effectiveness of increasing traffic enforcement in Uganda.

METHODS

Record review and key informant interviews were conducted at 10 police stations along the highways that were patrolled. Monthly data on traffic citations and casualties were reviewed for January 2001 to December 2005; time series (ARIMA) regression was used to assess for a statistically significant change in traffic deaths. Costs were computed from the perspective of the police department in $US 2005. Cost offsets from savings to the health sector were not included.

RESULTS

The annual cost of deploying the four squads of traffic patrols (20 officers, four vehicles, equipment, administration) is estimated at $72,000. Since deployment, the number of citations has increased substantially with a value of $327 311 annually. Monthly crash data pre- and post-intervention show a statistically significant 17% drop in road deaths after the intervention. The average cost-effectiveness of better road safety enforcement in Uganda is $603 per death averted or $27 per life year saved discounted at 3% (equivalent to 9% of Uganda's $300 GDP per capita).

CONCLUSION

The costs of traffic safety enforcement are low in comparison to the potential number of lives saved and revenue generated. Increasing enforcement of existing traffic safety norms can prove to be an extremely cost-effective public health intervention in low-income countries, even from a government perspective.

Road traffic injuries in urban Africa and Asia: a policy gap in child and adolescent health

OBJECTIVE

This study highlights the burden of urban road traffic injuries (RTIs) in children and young adults in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa to heighten awareness of current limitations in child health policies, and to direct future research and intervention development.

METHODS

Comparative analysis of recent Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia reviews of RTIs, World Health Organization (WHO) Global Burden of Disease statistics, and the Bangladesh Health and Injury Survey.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged 0-18 years in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa reviews, aged 0-14 years in the WHO data, and aged 1-17 years in the Bangladeshi data.

RESULTS

Child pedestrians comprise the largest proportion of urban RTI victims. More healthy life years were lost per 1000 children aged 0-18 years in South Asia than Sub-Saharan Africa. Disability-adjusted life years lost per 1000 children aged 0-14 years was greater in Africa than South-east Asia. South-east Asia has the greatest overall incidence of RTIs; however, Africa has poorer reported outcomes for children aged 0-14 years.

CONCLUSION

These data sources point to the salience of intervening in RTIs in children to prevent a predicted boom in the RTI burden in children, particularly in the poorest regions of the world. However, child health policies in these regions have not yet embraced RTI, either in research or programmes.