Risks and benefits of estrogen plus progestin in healthy postmenopausal women: principal results From the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

Despite decades of accumulated observational evidence, the balance of risks and benefits for hormone use in healthy postmenopausal women remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the major health benefits and risks of the most commonly used combined hormone preparation in the United States.

DESIGN

Estrogen plus progestin component of the Women's Health Initiative, a randomized controlled primary prevention trial (planned duration, 8.5 years) in which 16608 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years with an intact uterus at baseline were recruited by 40 US clinical centers in 1993-1998.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants received conjugated equine estrogens, 0.625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 2.5 mg/d, in 1 tablet (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102).

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) (nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD death), with invasive breast cancer as the primary adverse outcome. A global index summarizing the balance of risks and benefits included the 2 primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), endometrial cancer, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death due to other causes.

RESULTS

On May 31, 2002, after a mean of 5.2 years of follow-up, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the trial of estrogen plus progestin vs placebo because the test statistic for invasive breast cancer exceeded the stopping boundary for this adverse effect and the global index statistic supported risks exceeding benefits. This report includes data on the major clinical outcomes through April 30, 2002. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (nominal 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were as follows: CHD, 1.29 (1.02-1.63) with 286 cases; breast cancer, 1.26 (1.00-1.59) with 290 cases; stroke, 1.41 (1.07-1.85) with 212 cases; PE, 2.13 (1.39-3.25) with 101 cases; colorectal cancer, 0.63 (0.43-0.92) with 112 cases; endometrial cancer, 0.83 (0.47-1.47) with 47 cases; hip fracture, 0.66 (0.45-0.98) with 106 cases; and death due to other causes, 0.92 (0.74-1.14) with 331 cases. Corresponding HRs (nominal 95% CIs) for composite outcomes were 1.22 (1.09-1.36) for total cardiovascular disease (arterial and venous disease), 1.03 (0.90-1.17) for total cancer, 0.76 (0.69-0.85) for combined fractures, 0.98 (0.82-1.18) for total mortality, and 1.15 (1.03-1.28) for the global index. Absolute excess risks per 10 000 person-years attributable to estrogen plus progestin were 7 more CHD events, 8 more strokes, 8 more PEs, and 8 more invasive breast cancers, while absolute risk reductions per 10 000 person-years were 6 fewer colorectal cancers and 5 fewer hip fractures. The absolute excess risk of events included in the global index was 19 per 10 000 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall health risks exceeded benefits from use of combined estrogen plus progestin for an average 5.2-year follow-up among healthy postmenopausal US women. All-cause mortality was not affected during the trial. The risk-benefit profile found in this trial is not consistent with the requirements for a viable intervention for primary prevention of chronic diseases, and the results indicate that this regimen should not be initiated or continued for primary prevention of CHD.

Effects of conjugated equine estrogen in postmenopausal women with hysterectomy: the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

Despite decades of use and considerable research, the role of estrogen alone in preventing chronic diseases in postmenopausal women remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effects on major disease incidence rates of the most commonly used postmenopausal hormone therapy in the United States.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled disease prevention trial (the estrogen-alone component of the Women's Health Initiative [WHI]) conducted in 40 US clinical centers beginning in 1993. Enrolled were 10 739 postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 years, with prior hysterectomy, including 23% of minority race/ethnicity.

INTERVENTION

Women were randomly assigned to receive either 0.625 mg/d of conjugated equine estrogen (CEE) or placebo.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence (nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death). Invasive breast cancer incidence was the primary safety outcome. A global index of risks and benefits, including these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and deaths from other causes, was used for summarizing overall effects.

RESULTS

In February 2004, after reviewing data through November 30, 2003, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) decided to end the intervention phase of the trial early. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for CEE vs placebo for the major clinical outcomes available through February 29, 2004 (average follow-up 6.8 years), were: CHD, 0.91 (0.75-1.12) with 376 cases; breast cancer, 0.77 (0.59-1.01) with 218 cases; stroke, 1.39 (1.10-1.77) with 276 cases; PE, 1.34 (0.87-2.06) with 85 cases; colorectal cancer, 1.08 (0.75-1.55) with 119 cases; and hip fracture, 0.61 (0.41-0.91) with 102 cases. Corresponding results for composite outcomes were: total cardiovascular disease, 1.12 (1.01-1.24); total cancer, 0.93 (0.81-1.07); total fractures, 0.70 (0.63-0.79); total mortality, 1.04 (0.88-1.22), and the global index, 1.01 (0.91-1.12). For the outcomes significantly affected by CEE, there was an absolute excess risk of 12 additional strokes per 10 000 person-years and an absolute risk reduction of 6 fewer hip fractures per 10 000 person-years. The estimated excess risk for all monitored events in the global index was a nonsignificant 2 events per 10 000 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of CEE increases the risk of stroke, decreases the risk of hip fracture, and does not affect CHD incidence in postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy over an average of 6.8 years. A possible reduction in breast cancer risk requires further investigation. The burden of incident disease events was equivalent in the CEE and placebo groups, indicating no overall benefit. Thus, CEE should not be recommended for chronic disease prevention in postmenopausal women.

Effect of alendronate on risk of fracture in women with low bone density but without vertebral fractures: results from the Fracture Intervention Trial

CONTEXT

Alendronate sodium reduces fracture risk in postmenopausal women who have vertebral fractures, but its effects on fracture risk have not been studied for women without vertebral fractures.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that 4 years of alendronate would decrease the risk of clinical and vertebral fractures in women who have low bone mineral density (BMD) but no vertebral fractures.

DESIGN

Randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled trial.

SETTING

Eleven community-based clinical research centers.

SUBJECTS

Women aged 54 to 81 years with a femoral neck BMD of 0.68 g/cm2 or less (Hologic Inc, Waltham, Mass) but no vertebral fracture; 4432 were randomized to alendronate or placebo and 4272 (96%) completed outcome measurements at the final visit (an average of 4.2 years later).

INTERVENTION

All participants reporting calcium intakes of 1000 mg/d or less received a supplement containing 500 mg of calcium and 250 IU of cholecalciferol. Subjects were randomly assigned to either placebo or 5 mg/d of alendronate sodium for 2 years followed by 10 mg/d for the remainder of the trial.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical fractures confirmed by x-ray reports, new vertebral deformities detected by morphometric measurements on radiographs, and BMD measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry.

RESULTS

Alendronate increased BMD at all sites studied (P<.001) and reduced clinical fractures from 312 in the placebo group to 272 in the intervention group, but not significantly so (14% reduction; relative hazard [RH], 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-1.01). Alendronate reduced clinical fractures by 36% in women with baseline osteoporosis at the femoral neck (>2.5 SDs below the normal young adult mean; RH, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.50-0.82; treatment-control difference, 6.5%; number needed to treat [NNT], 15), but there was no significant reduction among those with higher BMD (RH, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.87-1.35). Alendronate decreased the risk of radiographic vertebral fractures by 44% overall (relative risk, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.39-0.80; treatment-control difference, 1.7%; NNT, 60). Alendronate did not increase the risk of gastrointestinal or other adverse effects.

CONCLUSIONS

In women with low BMD but without vertebral fractures, 4 years of alendronate safely increased BMD and decreased the risk of first vertebral deformity. Alendronate significantly reduced the risk of clinical fractures among women with osteoporosis but not among women with higher BMD.

Calcium plus vitamin D supplementation and the risk of fractures

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of calcium with vitamin D supplementation for preventing hip and other fractures in healthy postmenopausal women remains equivocal.

METHODS

We recruited 36,282 postmenopausal women, 50 to 79 years of age, who were already enrolled in a Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trial. We randomly assigned participants to receive 1000 mg of elemental [corrected] calcium as calcium carbonate with 400 IU of vitamin D3 daily or placebo. Fractures were ascertained for an average follow-up period of 7.0 years. Bone density was measured at three WHI centers.

RESULTS

Hip bone density was 1.06 percent higher in the calcium plus vitamin D group than in the placebo group (P<0.01). Intention-to-treat analysis indicated that participants receiving calcium plus vitamin D supplementation had a hazard ratio of 0.88 for hip fracture (95 percent confidence interval, 0.72 to 1.08), 0.90 for clinical spine fracture (0.74 to 1.10), and 0.96 for total fractures (0.91 to 1.02). The risk of renal calculi increased with calcium plus vitamin D (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.34). Censoring data from women when they ceased to adhere to the study medication reduced the hazard ratio for hip fracture to 0.71 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.52 to 0.97). Effects did not vary significantly according to prerandomization serum vitamin D levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Among healthy postmenopausal women, calcium with vitamin D supplementation resulted in a small but significant improvement in hip bone density, did not significantly reduce hip fracture, and increased the risk of kidney stones. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000611.).

Postmenopausal hormone therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease by age and years since menopause

CONTEXT

The timing of initiation of hormone therapy may influence its effect on cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether the effects of hormone therapy on risk of cardiovascular disease vary by age or years since menopause began.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Secondary analysis of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized controlled trials of hormone therapy in which 10,739 postmenopausal women who had undergone a hysterectomy were randomized to conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) or placebo and 16,608 postmenopausal women who had not had a hysterectomy were randomized to CEE plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (CEE + MPA) or placebo. Women aged 50 to 79 years were recruited to the study from 40 US clinical centers between September 1993 and October 1998.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Statistical test for trend of the effect of hormone therapy on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke across categories of age and years since menopause in the combined trials.

RESULTS

In the combined trials, there were 396 cases of CHD and 327 cases of stroke in the hormone therapy group vs 370 [corrected] cases of CHD and 239 cases of stroke in the placebo group. For women with less than 10 years since menopause began, the hazard ratio (HR) for CHD was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-1.16); 10 to 19 years, 1.10 (95% CI, 0.84-1.45); and 20 or more years, 1.28 (95% CI, 1.03-1.58) (P for trend = .02). The estimated absolute excess risk for CHD for women within 10 years of menopause was -6 per 10,000 person-years; for women 10 to 19 years since menopause began, 4 per 10,000 person-years; and for women 20 or more years from menopause onset, 17 per 10,000 person-years. For the age group of 50 to 59 years, the HR for CHD was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.65-1.33) and the absolute excess risk was -2 per 10,000 person-years; 60 to 69 years, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.79-1.21) and -1 per 10,000 person-years; and 70 to 79 years, 1.26 (95% CI, 1.00-1.59) and 19 per 10,000 person-years (P for trend = .16). Hormone therapy increased the risk of stroke (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.12-1.56). Risk did not vary significantly by age or time since menopause. There was a nonsignificant tendency for the effects of hormone therapy on total mortality to be more favorable in younger than older women (HR of 0.70 for 50-59 years; 1.05 for 60-69 years, and 1.14 for 70-79 years; P for trend = .06).

CONCLUSIONS

Women who initiated hormone therapy closer to menopause tended to have reduced CHD risk compared with the increase in CHD risk among women more distant from menopause, but this trend test did not meet our criterion for statistical significance. A similar nonsignificant trend was observed for total mortality but the risk of stroke was elevated regardless of years since menopause. These data should be considered in regard to the short-term treatment of menopausal symptoms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Menopausal hormone therapy and health outcomes during the intervention and extended poststopping phases of the Women's Health Initiative randomized trials

IMPORTANCE

Menopausal hormone therapy continues in clinical use but questions remain regarding its risks and benefits for chronic disease prevention.

OBJECTIVE

To report a comprehensive, integrated overview of findings from the 2 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials with extended postintervention follow-up.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 27,347 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years were enrolled at 40 US centers.

INTERVENTIONS

Women with an intact uterus received conjugated equine estrogens (CEE; 0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA; 2.5 mg/d) (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102). Women with prior hysterectomy received CEE alone (0.625 mg/d) (n = 5310) or placebo (n = 5429). The intervention lasted a median of 5.6 years in CEE plus MPA trial and 7.2 years in CEE alone trial with 13 years of cumulative follow-up until September 30, 2010.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary efficacy and safety outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and invasive breast cancer, respectively. A global index also included stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, hip fracture, and death.

RESULTS

During the CEE plus MPA intervention phase, the numbers of CHD cases were 196 for CEE plus MPA vs 159 for placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% CI, 0.95-1.45) and 206 vs 155, respectively, for invasive breast cancer (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53). Other risks included increased stroke, pulmonary embolism, dementia (in women aged ≥65 years), gallbladder disease, and urinary incontinence; benefits included decreased hip fractures, diabetes, and vasomotor symptoms. Most risks and benefits dissipated postintervention, although some elevation in breast cancer risk persisted during cumulative follow-up (434 cases for CEE plus MPA vs 323 for placebo; HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.11-1.48]). The risks and benefits were more balanced during the CEE alone intervention with 204 CHD cases for CEE alone vs 222 cases for placebo (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78-1.14) and 104 vs 135, respectively, for invasive breast cancer (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.61-1.02); cumulatively, there were 168 vs 216, respectively, cases of breast cancer diagnosed (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65-0.97). Results for other outcomes were similar to CEE plus MPA. Neither regimen affected all-cause mortality. For CEE alone, younger women (aged 50-59 years) had more favorable results for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and the global index (nominal P < .05 for trend by age). Absolute risks of adverse events (measured by the global index) per 10,000 women annually taking CEE plus MPA ranged from 12 excess cases for ages of 50-59 years to 38 for ages of 70-79 years; for women taking CEE alone, from 19 fewer cases for ages of 50-59 years to 51 excess cases for ages of 70-79 years. Quality-of-life outcomes had mixed results in both trials.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Menopausal hormone therapy has a complex pattern of risks and benefits. Findings from the intervention and extended postintervention follow-up of the 2 WHI hormone therapy trials do not support use of this therapy for chronic disease prevention, although it is appropriate for symptom management in some women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Walking compared with vigorous exercise for the prevention of cardiovascular events in women

BACKGROUND

The role of walking, as compared with vigorous exercise, in the prevention of cardiovascular disease remains controversial. Data for women who are members of minority racial or ethnic groups are particularly sparse.

METHODS

We prospectively examined the total physical-activity score, walking, vigorous exercise, and hours spent sitting as predictors of the incidence of coronary events and total cardiovascular events among 73,743 postmenopausal women 50 to 79 years of age in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. At base line, participants were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer, and all participants completed detailed questionnaires about physical activity. We documented 345 newly diagnosed cases of coronary heart disease and 1551 total cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

An increasing physical-activity score had a strong, graded, inverse association with the risk of both coronary events and total cardiovascular events. There were similar findings among white women and black women. Women in increasing quintiles of energy expenditure measured in metabolic equivalents (the MET score) had age-adjusted relative risks of coronary events of 1.00, 0.73, 0.69, 0.68, and 0.47, respectively (P for trend, <0.001). In multivariate analyses, the inverse gradient between the total MET score and the risk of cardiovascular events remained strong (adjusted relative risks for increasing quintiles, 1.00, 0.89, 0.81, 0.78, and 0.72, respectively; P for trend <0.001). Walking and vigorous exercise were associated with similar risk reductions, and the results did not vary substantially according to race, age, or body-mass index. A brisker walking pace and fewer hours spent sitting daily also predicted lower risk.

CONCLUSIONS

These prospective data indicate that both walking and vigorous exercise are associated with substantial reductions in the incidence of cardiovascular events among postmenopausal women, irrespective of race or ethnic group, age, and body-mass index. Prolonged sitting predicts increased cardiovascular risk.

Effects of estrogen plus progestin on risk of fracture and bone mineral density: the Women's Health Initiative randomized trial

CONTEXT

In the Women's Health Initiative trial of estrogen-plus-progestin therapy, women assigned to active treatment had fewer fractures.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that the relative risk reduction of estrogen plus progestin on fractures differs according to risk factors for fractures.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized controlled trial (September 1993-July 2002) in which 16 608 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with an intact uterus at baseline were recruited at 40 US clinical centers and followed up for an average of 5.6 years.

INTERVENTION

Women were randomly assigned to receive conjugated equine estrogen, 0.625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 2.5 mg/d, in 1 tablet (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All confirmed osteoporotic fracture events that occurred from enrollment to discontinuation of the trial (July 7, 2002); bone mineral density (BMD), measured in a subset of women (n = 1024) at baseline and years 1 and 3; and a global index, developed to summarize the balance of risks and benefits to test whether the risk-benefit profile differed across tertiles of fracture risk.

RESULTS

Seven hundred thirty-three women (8.6%) in the estrogen-plus-progestin group and 896 women (11.1%) in the placebo group experienced a fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.83). The effect did not differ in women stratified by age, body mass index, smoking status, history of falls, personal and family history of fracture, total calcium intake, past use of hormone therapy, BMD, or summary fracture risk score. Total hip BMD increased 3.7% after 3 years of treatment with estrogen plus progestin compared with 0.14% in the placebo group (P<.001). The HR for the global index was similar across tertiles of the fracture risk scale (lowest fracture risk tertile, HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.93-1.58; middle tertile, HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.04-1.46; highest tertile, HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.88-1.24) (P for interaction =.54).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that estrogen plus progestin increases BMD and reduces the risk of fracture in healthy postmenopausal women. The decreased risk of fracture attributed to estrogen plus progestin appeared to be present in all subgroups of women examined. When considering the effects of hormone therapy on other important disease outcomes in a global model, there was no net benefit, even in women considered to be at high risk of fracture.

Frailty: Emergence and Consequences in Women Aged 65 and Older in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

To define frailty using simple indicators; to identify risk factors for frailty as targets for prevention; and to investigate the predictive validity of this frailty classification for death, hospitalization, hip fracture, and activity of daily living (ADL) disability.

DESIGN

Prospective study, the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

SETTING

Forty U.S. clinical centers.

PARTICIPANTS

Forty thousand six hundred fifty-seven women aged 65 to 79 at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Components of frailty included self-reported muscle weakness/impaired walking, exhaustion, low physical activity, and unintended weight loss between baseline and 3 years of follow-up. Death, hip fractures, ADL disability, and hospitalizations were ascertained during an average of 5.9 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Baseline frailty was classified in 16.3% of participants, and incident frailty at 3-years was 14.8%. Older age, chronic conditions, smoking, and depressive symptom score were positively associated with incident frailty, whereas income, moderate alcohol use, living alone, and self-reported health were inversely associated. Being underweight, overweight, or obese all carried significantly higher risk of frailty than normal weight. Baseline frailty independently predicted risk of death (hazard ratio (HR)=1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.48-1.97), hip fracture (HR=1.57, 95% CI=1.11-2.20), ADL disability (odds ratio (OR)=3.15, 95% CI=2.47-4.02), and hospitalizations (OR=1.95, 95% CI=1.72-2.22) after adjustment for demographic characteristics, health behaviors, disability, and comorbid conditions.

CONCLUSION

These results support the robustness of the concept of frailty as a geriatric syndrome that predicts several poor outcomes in older women. Underweight, obesity, smoking, and depressive symptoms are strongly associated with the development of frailty and represent important targets for prevention.

Calcium plus vitamin D supplementation and the risk of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Higher intake of calcium and vitamin D has been associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer in epidemiologic studies and polyp recurrence in polyp-prevention trials. However, randomized-trial evidence that calcium with vitamin D supplementation is beneficial in the primary prevention of colorectal cancer is lacking.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 36,282 postmenopausal women from 40 Women's Health Initiative centers: 18,176 women received 500 mg of elemental calcium as calcium carbonate with 200 IU of vitamin D3 [corrected] twice daily (1000 mg of elemental calcium and 400 IU of vitamin D3) and 18,106 received a matching placebo for an average of 7.0 years. The incidence of pathologically confirmed colorectal cancer was the designated secondary outcome. Baseline levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D were assessed in a nested case-control study.

RESULTS

The incidence of invasive colorectal cancer did not differ significantly between women assigned to calcium plus vitamin D supplementation and those assigned to placebo (168 and 154 cases; hazard ratio, 1.08; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.34; P=0.51), and the tumor characteristics were similar in the two groups. The frequency of colorectal-cancer screening and abdominal symptoms was similar in the two groups. There were no significant treatment interactions with baseline characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily supplementation of calcium with vitamin D for seven years had no effect on the incidence of colorectal cancer among postmenopausal women. The long latency associated with the development of colorectal cancer, along with the seven-year duration of the trial, may have contributed to this null finding. Ongoing follow-up will assess the longer-term effect of this intervention. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000611.).

Low-fat dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Women's Health Initiative Randomized Controlled Dietary Modification Trial

CONTEXT

Multiple epidemiologic studies and some trials have linked diet with cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but long-term intervention data are needed.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that a dietary intervention, intended to be low in fat and high in vegetables, fruits, and grains to reduce cancer, would reduce CVD risk.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized controlled trial of 48,835 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years, of diverse backgrounds and ethnicities, who participated in the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial. Women were randomly assigned to an intervention (19,541 [40%]) or comparison group (29,294 [60%]) in a free-living setting. Study enrollment occurred between 1993 and 1998 in 40 US clinical centers; mean follow-up in this analysis was 8.1 years.

INTERVENTION

Intensive behavior modification in group and individual sessions designed to reduce total fat intake to 20% of calories and increase intakes of vegetables/fruits to 5 servings/d and grains to at least 6 servings/d. The comparison group received diet-related education materials.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), fatal and nonfatal stroke, and CVD (composite of CHD and stroke).

RESULTS

By year 6, mean fat intake decreased by 8.2% of energy intake in the intervention vs the comparison group, with small decreases in saturated (2.9%), monounsaturated (3.3%), and polyunsaturated (1.5%) fat; increases occurred in intakes of vegetables/fruits (1.1 servings/d) and grains (0.5 serving/d). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, diastolic blood pressure, and factor VIIc levels were significantly reduced by 3.55 mg/dL, 0.31 mm Hg, and 4.29%, respectively; levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, and insulin did not significantly differ in the intervention vs comparison groups. The numbers who developed CHD, stroke, and CVD (annualized incidence rates) were 1000 (0.63%), 434 (0.28%), and 1357 (0.86%) in the intervention and 1549 (0.65%), 642 (0.27%), and 2088 (0.88%) in the comparison group. The diet had no significant effects on incidence of CHD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.06), stroke (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.90-1.15), or CVD (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.92-1.05). Excluding participants with baseline CVD (3.4%), the HRs (95% CIs) for CHD and stroke were 0.94 (0.86-1.02) and 1.02 (0.90-1.17), respectively. Trends toward greater reductions in CHD risk were observed in those with lower intakes of saturated fat or trans fat or higher intakes of vegetables/fruits.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a mean of 8.1 years, a dietary intervention that reduced total fat intake and increased intakes of vegetables, fruits, and grains did not significantly reduce the risk of CHD, stroke, or CVD in postmenopausal women and achieved only modest effects on CVD risk factors, suggesting that more focused diet and lifestyle interventions may be needed to improve risk factors and reduce CVD risk.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Genome-wide association study identifies variants in the ABO locus associated with susceptibility to pancreatic cancer

We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of pancreatic cancer, a cancer with one of the lowest survival rates worldwide. We genotyped 558,542 SNPs in 1,896 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 1,939 controls drawn from 12 prospective cohorts plus one hospital-based case-control study. We conducted a combined analysis of these groups plus an additional 2,457 affected individuals and 2,654 controls from eight case-control studies, adjusting for study, sex, ancestry and five principal components. We identified an association between a locus on 9q34 and pancreatic cancer marked by the SNP rs505922 (combined P = 5.37 x 10(-8); multiplicative per-allele odds ratio 1.20; 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.28). This SNP maps to the first intron of the ABO blood group gene. Our results are consistent with earlier epidemiologic evidence suggesting that people with blood group O may have a lower risk of pancreatic cancer than those with groups A or B.

Effects of estrogen plus progestin on health-related quality of life

BACKGROUND

The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and other clinical trials indicate that significant health risks are associated with combination hormone use. Less is known about the effect of hormone therapy on health-related quality of life.

METHODS

The WHI randomly assigned 16,608 postmenopausal women 50 to 79 years of age (mean, 63) with an intact uterus at base line to estrogen plus progestin (0.625 mg of conjugated equine estrogen plus 2.5 mg of medroxyprogesterone acetate, in 8506 women) or placebo (in 8102 women). Quality-of-life measures were collected at base line and at one year in all women and at three years in a subgroup of 1511 women.

RESULTS

Randomization to estrogen plus progestin resulted in no significant effects on general health, vitality, mental health, depressive symptoms, or sexual satisfaction. The use of estrogen plus progestin was associated with a statistically significant but small and not clinically meaningful benefit in terms of sleep disturbance, physical functioning, and bodily pain after one year (the mean benefit in terms of sleep disturbance was 0.4 point on a 20-point scale, in terms of physical functioning 0.8 point on a 100-point scale, and in terms of pain 1.9 points on a 100-point scale). At three years, there were no significant benefits in terms of any quality-of-life outcomes. Among women 50 to 54 years of age with moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms at base line, estrogen and progestin improved vasomotor symptoms and resulted in a small benefit in terms of sleep disturbance but no benefit in terms of the other quality-of-life outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial in postmenopausal women, estrogen plus progestin did not have a clinically meaningful effect on health-related quality of life.

Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs

PURPOSE

To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis.

METHODS

After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density.

RESULTS

Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate.

CONCLUSION

Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

Low-fat dietary pattern and risk of invasive breast cancer: the Women's Health Initiative Randomized Controlled Dietary Modification Trial

CONTEXT

The hypothesis that a low-fat dietary pattern can reduce breast cancer risk has existed for decades but has never been tested in a controlled intervention trial.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effects of undertaking a low-fat dietary pattern on breast cancer incidence.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A randomized, controlled, primary prevention trial conducted at 40 US clinical centers from 1993 to 2005.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 48,835 postmenopausal women, aged 50 to 79 years, without prior breast cancer, including 18.6% of minority race/ethnicity, were enrolled.

INTERVENTIONS

Women were randomly assigned to the dietary modification intervention group (40% [n = 19,541]) or the comparison group (60% [n = 29,294]). The intervention was designed to promote dietary change with the goals of reducing intake of total fat to 20% of energy and increasing consumption of vegetables and fruit to at least 5 servings daily and grains to at least 6 servings daily. Comparison group participants were not asked to make dietary changes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Invasive breast cancer incidence.

RESULTS

Dietary fat intake was significantly lower in the dietary modification intervention group compared with the comparison group. The difference between groups in change from baseline for percentage of energy from fat varied from 10.7% at year 1 to 8.1% at year 6. Vegetable and fruit consumption was higher in the intervention group by at least 1 serving per day and a smaller, more transient difference was found for grain consumption. The number of women who developed invasive breast cancer (annualized incidence rate) over the 8.1-year average follow-up period was 655 (0.42%) in the intervention group and 1072 (0.45%) in the comparison group (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.01 for the comparison between the 2 groups). Secondary analyses suggest a lower hazard ratio among adherent women, provide greater evidence of risk reduction among women having a high-fat diet at baseline, and suggest a dietary effect that varies by hormone receptor characteristics of the tumor.

CONCLUSIONS

Among postmenopausal women, a low-fat dietary pattern did not result in a statistically significant reduction in invasive breast cancer risk over an 8.1-year average follow-up period. However, the nonsignificant trends observed suggesting reduced risk associated with a low-fat dietary pattern indicate that longer, planned, nonintervention follow-up may yield a more definitive comparison.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Exercise plus behavioral management in patients with Alzheimer disease: a randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

Exercise training for patients with Alzheimer disease combined with teaching caregivers how to manage behavioral problems may help decrease the frailty and behavioral impairment that are often prevalent in patients with Alzheimer disease.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a home-based exercise program combined with caregiver training in behavioral management techniques would reduce functional dependence and delay institutionalization among patients with Alzheimer disease.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Randomized controlled trial of 153 community-dwelling patients meeting National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Diseases and Stroke/Alzheimer Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria for Alzheimer disease, conducted between June 1994 and April 1999.

INTERVENTIONS

Patient-caregiver dyads were randomly assigned to the combined exercise and caregiver training program, Reducing Disability in Alzheimer Disease (RDAD), or to routine medical care (RMC). The RDAD program was conducted in the patients' home over 3 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Physical health and function (36-item Short-Form Health Survey's [SF-36] physical functioning and physical role functioning subscales and Sickness Impact Profile's Mobility subscale), and affective status (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and Cornell Depression Scale for Depression in Dementia).

RESULTS

At 3 months, in comparison with the routine care patients, more patients in the RDAD group exercised at least 60 min/wk (odds ratio [OR], 2.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-6.39; P =.01) and had fewer days of restricted activity (OR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.08-8.95; P<.001). Patients in the RDAD group also had improved scores for physical role functioning compared with worse scores for patients in the RMC group (mean difference, 19.29; 95% CI, 8.75-29.83; P<.001). Patients in the RDAD group had improved Cornell Depression Scale for Depression in Dementia scores while the patients in the RMC group had worse scores (mean difference, -1.03; 95% CI, -0.17 to -1.91; P =.02). At 2 years, the RDAD patients continued to have better physical role functioning scores than the RMC patients (mean difference, 10.89; 95% CI, 3.62-18.16; P =.003) and showed a trend (19% vs 50%) for less institutionalization due to behavioral disturbance. For patients with higher depression scores at baseline, those in the RDAD group improved significantly more at 3 months on the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (mean difference, 2.21; 95% CI, 0.22-4.20; P =.04) and maintained that improvement at 24 months (mean difference, 2.14; 95% CI, 0.14-4.17; P =.04).

CONCLUSION

Exercise training combined with teaching caregivers behavioral management techniques improved physical health and depression in patients with Alzheimer disease.

Association between alcohol and cardiovascular disease: Mendelian randomisation analysis based on individual participant data

OBJECTIVE

To use the rs1229984 variant in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B gene (ADH1B) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol in cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis of 56 epidemiological studies.

PARTICIPANTS

261 991 individuals of European descent, including 20 259 coronary heart disease cases and 10 164 stroke events. Data were available on ADH1B rs1229984 variant, alcohol phenotypes, and cardiovascular biomarkers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Odds ratio for coronary heart disease and stroke associated with the ADH1B variant in all individuals and by categories of alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

Carriers of the A-allele of ADH1B rs1229984 consumed 17.2% fewer units of alcohol per week (95% confidence interval 15.6% to 18.9%), had a lower prevalence of binge drinking (odds ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84)), and had higher abstention (odds ratio 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)) than non-carriers. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower systolic blood pressure (-0.88 (-1.19 to -0.56) mm Hg), interleukin-6 levels (-5.2% (-7.8 to -2.4%)), waist circumference (-0.3 (-0.6 to -0.1) cm), and body mass index (-0.17 (-0.24 to -0.10) kg/m(2)). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower odds of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.90 (0.84 to 0.96)). The protective association of the ADH1B rs1229984 A-allele variant remained the same across all categories of alcohol consumption (P=0.83 for heterogeneity). Although no association of rs1229984 was identified with the combined subtypes of stroke, carriers of the A-allele had lower odds of ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 0.83 (0.72 to 0.95)).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with a genetic variant associated with non-drinking and lower alcohol consumption had a more favourable cardiovascular profile and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease than those without the genetic variant. This suggests that reduction of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, is beneficial for cardiovascular health.

Detectable clonal mosaicism and its relationship to aging and cancer

In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of >2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 × 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 × 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases.

Health outcomes after stopping conjugated equine estrogens among postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy: a randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

The Women's Health Initiative Estrogen-Alone Trial was stopped early after a mean of 7.1 years of follow-up because of an increased risk of stroke and little likelihood of altering the balance of risk to benefit by the planned trial termination date. Postintervention health outcomes have not been reported.

OBJECTIVE

To examine health outcomes associated with randomization to treatment with conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) among women with prior hysterectomy after a mean of 10.7 years of follow-up through August 2009.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The intervention phase was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of 0.625 mg/d of CEE compared with placebo in 10,739 US postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with prior hysterectomy. Follow-up continued after the planned trial completion date among 7645 surviving participants (78%) who provided written consent.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and invasive breast cancer. A global index of risks and benefits included these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death.

RESULTS

The postintervention risk (annualized rate) for CHD among women assigned to CEE was 0.64% compared with 0.67% in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-1.25), 0.26% vs 0.34%, respectively, for breast cancer (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-1.09), and 1.47% vs 1.48%, respectively, for total mortality (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.84-1.18). The risk of stroke was no longer elevated during the postintervention follow-up period and was 0.36% among women receiving CEE compared with 0.41% in the placebo group (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.64-1.24), the risk of deep vein thrombosis was lower at 0.17% vs 0.27%, respectively (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.98), and the risk of hip fracture did not differ significantly and was 0.36% vs 0.28%, respectively (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.88-1.82). Over the entire follow-up, lower breast cancer incidence in the CEE group persisted and was 0.27% compared with 0.35% in the placebo group (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62-0.95). Health outcomes were more favorable for younger compared with older women for CHD (P = .05 for interaction), total myocardial infarction (P = .007 for interaction), colorectal cancer (P = .04 for interaction), total mortality (P = .04 for interaction), and global index of chronic diseases (P = .009 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

Among postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy followed up for 10.7 years, CEE use for a median of 5.9 years was not associated with an increased or decreased risk of CHD, deep vein thrombosis, stroke, hip fracture, colorectal cancer, or total mortality. A decreased risk of breast cancer persisted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Maintaining mobility in late life. I. Demographic characteristics and chronic conditions

To assess the role of demographic factors and chronic conditions in maintaining mobility in older persons, this study utilized longitudinal data collected as part of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly between 1981 and 1987 on 6,981 men and women aged 65 years and older in East Boston, Massachusetts; Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa; and New Haven, Connecticut. Results are presented for those who at baseline reported intact mobility, defined as the ability to climb stairs and walk a half mile without help, and who were followed annually for up to 4 years for changes in mobility status. Age, income, education, and chronic conditions present at baseline and occurring during follow-up were evaluated for their association with loss of mobility. Over the follow-up period, 55.1% of subjects maintained mobility, 36.2% lost mobility, and 8.7% died without evidence of mobility loss prior to death. In both men and women, increasing age and lower income levels were associated with increased risk of losing mobility, even after controlling for the presence of chronic conditions at baseline. After adjustment for age, income, and chronic conditions, lower education levels were a significant risk factor for mobility loss in men, but not in women. Baseline reports of previous heart attack, stroke, high blood pressure, diabetes, dyspnea, and exertional leg pain were associated with small but significant risks for mobility loss. There was a stepwise increase in the risk of mobility loss according to the number of chronic conditions present at baseline that was very consistent between men and women. The occurrence during the study of a new heart attack, stroke, cancer, or hip fracture was associated with a substantially greater risk of mobility loss than was associated with the presence of these conditions at baseline.

A meta-analysis of the association of fracture risk and body mass index in women

Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20-105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) , the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m(2) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored.

Menopausal Hormone Therapy and Long-term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: The Women's Health Initiative Randomized Trials

Importance

Health outcomes from the Women's Health Initiative Estrogen Plus Progestin and Estrogen-Alone Trials have been reported, but previous publications have generally not focused on all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Objective

To examine total and cause-specific cumulative mortality, including during the intervention and extended postintervention follow-up, of the 2 Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Observational follow-up of US multiethnic postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in 2 randomized clinical trials between 1993 and 1998 and followed up through December 31, 2014.

Interventions

Conjugated equine estrogens (CEE, 0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA, 2.5 mg/d) (n = 8506) vs placebo (n = 8102) for 5.6 years (median) or CEE alone (n = 5310) vs placebo (n = 5429) for 7.2 years (median).

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality (primary outcome) and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular disease mortality, cancer mortality, and other major causes of mortality) in the 2 trials pooled and in each trial individually, with prespecified analyses by 10-year age group based on age at time of randomization.

Results

Among 27 347 women who were randomized (baseline mean [SD] age, 63.4 [7.2] years; 80.6% white), mortality follow-up was available for more than 98%. During the cumulative 18-year follow-up, 7489 deaths occurred (1088 deaths during the intervention phase and 6401 deaths during postintervention follow-up). All-cause mortality was 27.1% in the hormone therapy group vs 27.6% in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94-1.03]) in the overall pooled cohort; with CEE plus MPA, the HR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96-1.08); and with CEE alone, the HR was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.88-1.01). In the pooled cohort for cardiovascular mortality, the HR was 1.00 (95% CI, 0.92-1.08 [8.9 % with hormone therapy vs 9.0% with placebo]); for total cancer mortality, the HR was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.95-1.12 [8.2 % with hormone therapy vs 8.0% with placebo]); and for other causes, the HR was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.88-1.02 [10.0% with hormone therapy vs 10.7% with placebo]), and results did not differ significantly between trials. When examined by 10-year age groups comparing younger women (aged 50-59 years) to older women (aged 70-79 years) in the pooled cohort, the ratio of nominal HRs for all-cause mortality was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.87) during the intervention phase and the ratio was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.76-1.00) during cumulative 18-year follow-up, without significant heterogeneity between trials.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among postmenopausal women, hormone therapy with CEE plus MPA for a median of 5.6 years or with CEE alone for a median of 7.2 years was not associated with risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, or cancer mortality during a cumulative follow-up of 18 years.

Trial Registration

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.

Maintaining mobility in late life. II. Smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index

While positive health behaviors have been shown to extend life, their association with extending active life has not been well investigated. In this report, several health behaviors were investigated in relation to maintaining mobility during 4 years of follow-up among 6,981 men and women aged 65 years and older with intact mobility at baseline between 1981 and 1983 who lived in one of three communities: East Boston, Massachusetts; Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa; and New Haven, Connecticut. Intact mobility, defined as the ability to climb up and down stairs and walk a half mile, was determined annually by interview, and study subjects were classified into one of three categories at the end of 4 years of follow-up: 1) maintained mobility (55.1%); 2) lost mobility (36.2%); or 3) died without evidence of having lost mobility prior to death (8.7%). After adjustment for age and all of the health behaviors, risk of losing mobility was significantly associated with current smoking, not consuming alcohol compared with small-to-moderate amounts of alcohol consumption, high (> 80th percentile) compared with moderate (21-80th percentiles) body mass index, and low physical activity levels in both men and women. These findings suggest that positive health behaviors can not only extend longevity but also reduce the risk of losing mobility and independence in later life.

Selective oestrogen receptor modulators in prevention of breast cancer: an updated meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Tamoxifen and raloxifene reduce the risk of breast cancer in women at elevated risk of disease, but the duration of the effect is unknown. We assessed the effectiveness of selective oestrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) on breast cancer incidence.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis with individual participant data from nine prevention trials comparing four selective oestrogen receptor modulators (SERMs; tamoxifen, raloxifene, arzoxifene, and lasofoxifene) with placebo, or in one study with tamoxifen. Our primary endpoint was incidence of all breast cancer (including ductal carcinoma in situ) during a 10 year follow-up period. Analysis was by intention to treat.

RESULTS

We analysed data for 83,399 women with 306,617 women-years of follow-up. Median follow-up was 65 months (IQR 54-93). Overall, we noted a 38% reduction (hazard ratio [HR] 0·62, 95% CI 0·56-0·69) in breast cancer incidence, and 42 women would need to be treated to prevent one breast cancer event in the first 10 years of follow-up. The reduction was larger in the first 5 years of follow-up than in years 5-10 (42%, HR 0·58, 0·51-0·66; p<0·0001 vs 25%, 0·75, 0·61-0·93; p=0·007), but we noted no heterogeneity between time periods. Thromboembolic events were significantly increased with all SERMs (odds ratio 1·73, 95% CI 1·47-2·05; p<0·0001). We recorded a significant reduction of 34% in vertebral fractures (0·66, 0·59-0·73), but only a small effect for non-vertebral fractures (0·93, 0·87-0·99).

INTERPRETATION

For all SERMs, incidence of invasive oestrogen (ER)-positive breast cancer was reduced both during treatment and for at least 5 years after completion. Similar to other preventive interventions, careful consideration of risks and benefits is needed to identify women who are most likely to benefit from these drugs.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK.

Older adults' views of "successful aging"--how do they compare with researchers' definitions?

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether older adults have thought about aging and aging successfully and to compare their perceptions of successful aging with attributes of successful aging identified in the published literature.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional, mailed survey.

SETTING

King County, Washington.

PARTICIPANTS

Nondemented participants from two cohorts. The first cohort, referred to as Kame, which means turtle, a symbol of longevity for Japanese, enrolled 1,985 Japanese Americans aged 65 and older and was established in 1992-94. The second cohort, Adult Changes in Thought, enrolled 2,581 white men and women aged 65 and older from a health maintenance organization and was established in 1994-96.

MEASUREMENTS

Respondents were asked whether they had ever thought about aging and aging successfully and whether these thoughts had changed over the previous 20 years and about how important specific attributes, originating from the published literature, were in characterizing successful aging.

RESULTS

Overall, 90% had previously thought about aging and aging successfully, and approximately 60% said their thoughts had changed over the previous 20 years. The Japanese-American group rated 13 attributes as important to successful aging; the white group rated the same 13 as important and added one additional attribute, learning new things.

CONCLUSION

Older adults' definition of successful aging is multidimensional, encompassing physical, functional, psychological, and social health. In contrast, none of the published work describing attributes of successful aging includes all four dimensions. Future work would benefit from an expanded definition to adequately reflect the perceptions of older adults.