Underestimation of Variance of Predicted Health Utilities Derived from Multiattribute Utility Instruments

BACKGROUND

Parameter uncertainty in value sets of multiattribute utility-based instruments (MAUIs) has received little attention previously. This false precision leads to underestimation of the uncertainty of the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to examine the use of multiple imputation as a method to account for this uncertainty of MAUI scoring algorithms.

METHOD

We fitted a Bayesian model with random effects for respondents and health states to the data from the original US EQ-5D-3L valuation study, thereby estimating the uncertainty in the EQ-5D-3L scoring algorithm. We applied these results to EQ-5D-3L data from the Commonwealth Fund (CWF) Survey for Sick Adults ( n = 3958), comparing the standard error of the estimated mean utility in the CWF population using the predictive distribution from the Bayesian mixed-effect model (i.e., incorporating parameter uncertainty in the value set) with the standard error of the estimated mean utilities based on multiple imputation and the standard error using the conventional approach of using MAUI (i.e., ignoring uncertainty in the value set).

RESULT

The mean utility in the CWF population based on the predictive distribution of the Bayesian model was 0.827 with a standard error (SE) of 0.011. When utilities were derived using the conventional approach, the estimated mean utility was 0.827 with an SE of 0.003, which is only 25% of the SE based on the full predictive distribution of the mixed-effect model. Using multiple imputation with 20 imputed sets, the mean utility was 0.828 with an SE of 0.011, which is similar to the SE based on the full predictive distribution.

CONCLUSION

Ignoring uncertainty of the predicted health utilities derived from MAUIs could lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of mean utilities. Multiple imputation corrects for this underestimation so that the results of cost-effectiveness analyses using MAUIs can report the correct degree of uncertainty.

Accounting for treatment by center interaction in sample size determinations and the use of surrogate outcomes in the pessary for the prevention of preterm birth trial: a simulation study

Background

The Pessary for the Prevention of Preterm Birth Study (PS3) is an international, multicenter, randomized clinical trial designed to examine the effectiveness of the Arabin pessary in preventing preterm birth in pregnant women with a short cervix. During the design of the study two methodological issues regarding power and sample size were raised. Since treatment in the Standard Arm will vary between centers, it is anticipated that so too will the probability of preterm birth in that arm. This will likely result in a treatment by center interaction, and the issue of how this will affect the sample size requirements was raised. The sample size requirements to examine the effect of the pessary on the baby’s clinical outcome was prohibitively high, so the second issue is how best to examine the effect on clinical outcome. The approaches taken to address these issues are presented.

Results

Simulation and sensitivity analysis were used to address the sample size issue. The probability of preterm birth in the Standard Arm was assumed to vary between centers following a Beta distribution with a mean of 0.3 and a coefficient of variation of 0.3. To address the second issue a Bayesian decision model is proposed that combines the information regarding the between-treatment difference in the probability of preterm birth from PS3 with the data from the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study that relate preterm birth and perinatal mortality/morbidity. The approach provides a between-treatment comparison with respect to the probability of a bad clinical outcome. The performance of the approach was assessed using simulation and sensitivity analysis.

Accounting for a possible treatment by center interaction increased the sample size from 540 to 700 patients per arm for the base case. The sample size requirements increase with the coefficient of variation and decrease with the number of centers. Under the same assumptions used for determining the sample size requirements, the simulated mean probability that pessary reduces the risk of perinatal mortality/morbidity is 0.98. The simulated mean decreased with coefficient of variation and increased with the number of clinical sites.

Conclusion

Employing simulation and sensitivity analysis is a useful approach for determining sample size requirements while accounting for the additional uncertainty due to a treatment by center interaction. Using a surrogate outcome in conjunction with a Bayesian decision model is an efficient way to compare important clinical outcomes in a randomized clinical trial in situations where the direct approach requires a prohibitively high sample size.

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information

Background The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10 000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada.

Methods and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril.

Conclusions Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials. Clinical Trials 2007; 4: 279—285. http://ctj.sagepub.com

Magnesium nebulization utilization in management of pediatric asthma (MagNUM PA) trial: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Up to 30 % of children with acute asthma are refractory to initial therapy, and 84 % of this subpopulation needs hospitalization. Finding safe, noninvasive, and effective strategies to treat this high-risk group would substantially decrease hospitalizations, healthcare costs, and the psycho-social burden of the disease. Whereas intravenous magnesium (Mg) is effective in severe refractory asthma, its use is sporadic due to safety concerns, with the main treatment goal being to prevent intensive care unit admission. In contrast, nebulized Mg is noninvasive, allows higher pulmonary drug concentrations, and has a much higher safety potential due to the lower rate of systemic delivery. Previous studies of inhaled Mg show disparate results due to the use of unknown/inefficient delivery methods and other methodological flaws.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study is a randomized double-blind controlled trial in seven Canadian pediatric Emergency Departments (two-center pilot 2011 to 2014, Canada-wide November 2014 to December 2017). The trial will include 816 otherwise healthy children who are 2 to 17 years old, having had at least one previous wheezing episode, have received systemic corticosteroids, and have a Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) ≥ 5 points after three salbutamol and ipratropium treatments for a current acute asthma exacerbation. Eligible consenting children will receive three experimental treatments of nebulized salbutamol with either 600 mg of Mg sulfate or placebo 20 min apart, using an Aeroneb Go nebulizer, which has been shown to maximize pulmonary delivery while maintaining safety. The primary outcome is hospitalization within 24 h of the start of the experimental therapy for persistent respiratory distress or supplemental oxygen. Secondary outcomes include all-cause hospitalization within 24 h, PRAM, vital signs, number of bronchodilator treatments by 240 min, and the association between the difference in the primary outcome between the groups, age, gender, baseline PRAM, atopy, and "viral induced wheeze" phenotype (Fig. 1).

DISCUSSION

If effective, inhaled Mg may represent an effective strategy to minimize morbidity in pediatric refractory acute asthma. Unlike previous works, this trial targets nonresponders to optimized initial therapy who are the most likely to benefit from inhaled Mg. Future dissemination of results will include knowledge translation, incorporation into a Cochrane Review, presentation at scientific meetings, and a peer-reviewed publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCTO1429415 , registered 2 September 2011.

Effect of Dilute Apple Juice and Preferred Fluids vs Electrolyte Maintenance Solution on Treatment Failure Among Children With Mild Gastroenteritis: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Gastroenteritis is a common pediatric illness. Electrolyte maintenance solution is recommended to treat and prevent dehydration. Its advantage in minimally dehydrated children is unproven.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if oral hydration with dilute apple juice/preferred fluids is noninferior to electrolyte maintenance solution in children with mild gastroenteritis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, single-blind noninferiority trial conducted between the months of October and April during the years 2010 to 2015 in a tertiary care pediatric emergency department in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Study participants were children aged 6 to 60 months with gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomly assigned to receive color-matched half-strength apple juice/preferred fluids (n=323) or apple-flavored electrolyte maintenance solution (n=324). Oral rehydration therapy followed institutional protocols. After discharge, the half-strength apple juice/preferred fluids group was administered fluids as desired; the electrolyte maintenance solution group replaced losses with electrolyte maintenance solution.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite of treatment failure defined by any of the following occurring within 7 days of enrollment: intravenous rehydration, hospitalization, subsequent unscheduled physician encounter, protracted symptoms, crossover, and 3% or more weight loss or significant dehydration at in-person follow-up. Secondary outcomes included intravenous rehydration, hospitalization, and frequency of diarrhea and vomiting. The noninferiority margin was defined as a difference between groups of 7.5% for the primary outcome and was assessed with a 1-sided α=.025. If noninferiority was established, a 1-sided test for superiority was conducted.

RESULTS

Among 647 randomized children (mean age, 28.3 months; 331 boys [51.1%]; 441 (68.2%) without evidence of dehydration), 644 (99.5%) completed follow-up. Children who were administered dilute apple juice experienced treatment failure less often than those given electrolyte maintenance solution (16.7% vs 25.0%; difference, -8.3%; 97.5% CI, -∞ to -2.0%; P < .001 for inferiority and P = .006 for superiority). Fewer children administered apple juice/preferred fluids received intravenous rehydration (2.5% vs 9.0%; difference, -6.5%; 99% CI, -11.6% to -1.8%). Hospitalization rates and diarrhea and vomiting frequency were not significantly different between groups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among children with mild gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration, initial oral hydration with dilute apple juice followed by their preferred fluids, compared with electrolyte maintenance solution, resulted in fewer treatment failures. In many high-income countries, the use of dilute apple juice and preferred fluids as desired may be an appropriate alternative to electrolyte maintenance fluids in children with mild gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01185054.

The impact of pedestrian countdown signals on single and two vehicle motor vehicle collisions: a quasi-experimental study

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of pedestrian countdown signals (PCS) on the rate of motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in Toronto, Canada. A quasi-experimental design was used to compare rates of single and two vehicle MVCs before and after installation of PCS in Toronto, Canada between January 2005 and December 2009. Collision incidence rates were compared using Poisson regression analyses with adjustment for relevant cofounders and reported as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Secondary analyses were performed on subsets of collisions by collision type and injury severity. A total of 94,175 MVCs occurred at or near 1965 intersections at which PCS were installed over the five-year study period. Overall, the MVC incidence rate increased 7.5% (IRR = 1.075; 95% CI: 1.042-1.109; p < 0.0001) after installation of PCS. The installation of PCS led to an increase in MVCs. PCS may have an unintended consequence of increasing the rate of MVCs.

Twin Birth Study: 2-year neurodevelopmental follow-up of the randomized trial of planned cesarean or planned vaginal delivery for twin pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The Twin Birth Study randomized women with uncomplicated pregnancies, between 32(0/7)-38(6/7) weeks' gestation where the first twin was in cephalic presentation, to a policy of either a planned cesarean or planned vaginal delivery. The primary analysis showed that planned cesarean delivery did not increase or decrease the risk of fetal/neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity as compared with planned vaginal delivery.

OBJECTIVE

This study presents the secondary outcome of death or neurodevelopmental delay at 2 years of age.

STUDY DESIGN

A total of 4603 children from the initial cohort of 5565 fetuses/infants (83%) contributed to the outcome of death or neurodevelopmental delay. Surviving children were screened using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire with abnormal scores validated by a clinical neurodevelopmental assessment. The effect of planned cesarean vs planned vaginal delivery on death or neurodevelopmental delay was quantified using a logistic model to control for stratification variables and using generalized estimating equations to account for the nonindependence of twin births.

RESULTS

Baseline maternal, pregnancy, and infant characteristics were similar. Mean age at assessment was 26 months. There was no significant difference in the outcome of death or neurodevelopmental delay: 5.99% in the planned cesarean vs 5.83% in the planned vaginal delivery group (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.41; P = .79).

CONCLUSION

A policy of planned cesarean delivery provides no benefit to children at 2 years of age compared with a policy of planned vaginal delivery in uncomplicated twin pregnancies between 32(0/7)-38(6/7)weeks' gestation where the first twin is in cephalic presentation.

Maternal outcomes at 3 months after planned caesarean section versus planned vaginal birth for twin pregnancies in the Twin Birth Study: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare outcomes at 3 months post partum for women randomised to give birth by planned caesarean section (CS) or by planned vaginal birth (VB) in the Twin Birth Study (TBS).

DESIGN

We invited women in the TBS to complete a 3-month follow-up questionnaire.

SETTING

Two thousand and eight hundred and four women from 25 countries.

POPULATION

Two thousand and five hundred and seventy women (92% response rate).

METHODS

Women randomised between 13 December 2003 and 4 April 2011 in the TBS completed a questionnaire and outcomes were compared using an intention-to-treat approach.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Breastfeeding, quality of life, depression, fatigue and urinary incontinence.

RESULTS

We found no clinically important differences between groups in any outcome. In the planned CS versus planned VB groups, breastfeeding at any time after birth was reported by 84.4% versus 86.4% (P = 0.13); the mean physical and mental Short Form (36) Health Survey (SF-36) quality of life scores were 51.8 versus 51.6 (P = 0.65) and 46.7 versus 46.0 (P = 0.09), respectively; the mean Multidimensional Assessment of Fatigue score was 20.3 versus 20.8 (P = 0.14); the frequency of probable depression on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale was 14.0% versus 14.8% (P = 0.57); the rate of problematic urinary incontinence was 5.5% versus 6.4% (P = 0.31); and the mean Incontinence Impact Questionnaire-7 score was 20.5 versus 20.4 (P = 0.99). Partner relationships, including painful intercourse, were similar between the groups.

CONCLUSION

For women with twin pregnancies randomised to planned CS compared with planned VB, outcomes at 3 months post partum did not differ. The mode of birth was not associated with problematic urinary incontinence or urinary incontinence that affected the quality of life. Contrary to previous studies, breastfeeding at 3 months was not increased with planned VB.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Planned mode of birth for twins doesn't affect maternal depression, wellbeing, incontinence or breastfeeding.

Maternal vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation to promote infant growth in Dhaka, Bangladesh (MDIG trial): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background

Vitamin D regulates bone mineral metabolism and skeletal development. Some observational studies have suggested that prenatal vitamin D deficiency increases the risk of adverse pregnancy and/or birth outcomes; however, there is scant evidence from controlled trials, leading the World Health Organization to advise against routine vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy. Importantly, little is known about the effect of maternal vitamin D status on infant linear growth in communities in South Asia where stunting is highly prevalent and maternal-infant vitamin D status is commonly suboptimal.

Methods/Design

The Maternal Vitamin D for Infant Growth study is a randomized, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging trial of maternal vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The primary aims are to estimate (1) the effect of maternal prenatal oral vitamin D₃ supplementation (4200 IU/wk, 16,800 IU/wk, or 28,000 IU/wk, administered as weekly doses) versus placebo on infant length at 1 year of age and (2) the effect of maternal postpartum oral vitamin D₃ supplementation (28,000 IU/wk) versus placebo on length at 1 year of age among infants born to women who received vitamin D 28,000 IU/wk during pregnancy. Generally healthy pregnant women (n = 1300) in the second trimester (17–24 weeks of gestation) are randomized to one of five parallel arms: placebo 4200 IU/wk, 16,800 IU/wk, or 28,000 IU/wk in the prenatal period and placebo in the postpartum period or 28,000 IU/wk in the prenatal period and 28,000 IU/wk in the postpartum period. Household- and clinic-based follow-up of mother-infant pairs is conducted weekly by trained personnel until 26 weeks postpartum and every 3 months thereafter. The primary trial outcome measure is length for age z-score at 1 year of age. Anthropometric measurements, clinical information, and biological specimens collected at scheduled intervals will enable the assessment of a range of maternal, perinatal, and infant outcomes.

Discussion

The role of vitamin D in maternal and infant health remains unresolved. This trial is expected to contribute unique insights into the effects of improving maternal-infant vitamin D status in a low-income setting where stunting and adverse perinatal outcomes represent significant public health burdens.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01924013. Registered on 13 August 2013

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-015-0825-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Patient safety, resident well-being and continuity of care with different resident duty schedules in the intensive care unit: a randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Shorter resident duty periods are increasingly mandated to improve patient safety and physician well-being. However, increases in continuity-related errors may counteract the purported benefits of reducing fatigue. We evaluated the effects of 3 resident schedules in the intensive care unit (ICU) on patient safety, resident well-being and continuity of care.

METHODS

Residents in 2 university-affiliated ICUs were randomly assigned (in 2-month rotation-blocks from January to June 2009) to in-house overnight schedules of 24, 16 or 12 hours. The primary patient outcome was adverse events. The primary resident outcome was sleepiness, measured by the 7-point Stanford Sleepiness Scale. Secondary outcomes were patient deaths, preventable adverse events, and residents' physical symptoms and burnout. Continuity of care and perceptions of ICU staff were also assessed.

RESULTS

We evaluated 47 (96%) of 49 residents, all 971 admissions, 5894 patient-days and 452 staff surveys. We found no effect of schedule (24-, 16- or 12-h shifts) on adverse events (81.3, 76.3 and 78.2 events per 1000 patient-days, respectively; p = 0.7) or on residents' sleepiness in the daytime (mean rating 2.33, 2.61 and 2.30, respectively; p = 0.3) or at night (mean rating 3.06, 2.73 and 2.42, respectively; p = 0.2). Seven of 8 preventable adverse events occurred with the 12-hour schedule (p = 0.1). Mortality rates were similar for the 3 schedules. Residents' somatic symptoms were more severe and more frequent with the 24-hour schedule (p = 0.04); however, burnout was similar across the groups. ICU staff rated residents' knowledge and decision-making worst with the 16-hour schedule.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings do not support the purported advantages of shorter duty schedules. They also highlight the trade-offs between residents' symptoms and multiple secondary measures of patient safety. Further delineation of this emerging signal is required before widespread system change.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00679809.

Effect of oximetry on hospitalization in bronchiolitis: a randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE

Routine use of pulse oximetry has been associated with changes in bronchiolitis management and may have lowered the hospitalization threshold for patients with bronchiolitis.

OBJECTIVE

To examine if infants with bronchiolitis whose displayed oximetry measurements have been artificially elevated 3 percentage points above true values experience hospitalization rates at least 15% lower compared with infants with true values displayed.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial conducted from 2008 to 2013 in a tertiary-care pediatric emergency department in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Participants were 213 otherwise healthy infants aged 4 weeks to 12 months with mild to moderate bronchiolitis and true oxygen saturations of 88% or higher.

INTERVENTIONS

Pulse oximetry measurements with true saturation values displayed or with altered saturation values displayed that have been increased 3 percentage points above true values.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was hospitalization within 72 hours, defined as inpatient admission within this interval or active hospital care for greater than 6 hours. Secondary outcomes included the use of supplemental oxygen in the emergency department, level of physician agreement with discharge from the emergency department, length of emergency department stay, and unscheduled visits for bronchiolitis within 72 hours.

RESULTS

Forty-four of 108 patients (41%) in the true oximetry group and 26 of 105 (25%) in the altered oximetry group were hospitalized within 72 hours (difference, 16% [95% CI for the difference, 3.6% to 28.4%]; P = .005). Using the emergency department physician as a random effect, the primary treatment effect remained significant (adjusted odds ratio, 4.0 [95% CI, 1.6 to 10.5]; P = .009). None of the secondary outcomes were significantly different between the groups. There were 23 of 108 (21.3%) subsequent unscheduled medical visits for bronchiolitis in the true oximetry group and 15 of 105 (14.3%) in the altered oximetry group (difference, 7% [95% CI, -0.3% to 0.2%]; P = .18).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among infants presenting to an emergency department with mild to moderate bronchiolitis, those with an artificially elevated pulse oximetry reading were less likely to be hospitalized within 72 hours or to receive active hospital care for more than 6 hours than those with unaltered oximetry readings. This suggests that oxygen saturation should not be the only factor in the decision to admit, and its use may need to be reevaluated.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00673946.

Using value-of-information methods when the disease is rare and the treatment is expensive--the example of hemophilia A

BACKGROUND

Hemophilia A is a rare, sex-linked genetic disorder treated with intravenous administration of factor VIII (FVIII) to prevent bleeding; however, approaches vary across and within countries. Value-of-information (VOI) methods identify situations in which the cost-benefit evidence is sufficient to adopt one treatment strategy over another; when the evidence is insufficient, VOI methods provide the optimal sample size for additional research.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to use VOI methods in a cost-benefit decision context to evaluate the current evidence in support of using (1) alternate day prophylaxis (AP), (2) tailored prophylaxis (TP) or (3) on-demand treatment (OD) with FVIII to prevent arthropathy in children with severe hemophilia A.

METHODS

To apply VOI methods, several parameters such as incidence, time horizon for the decision, costs, and threshold values to avoid MRI-detected joint damage or arthropathy were defined. Two baseline threshold values of willingness to pay for avoiding arthropathy--$200,000 and $400,000--were selected for comparing the treatment strategies.

RESULTS

For threshold values < $200,000, OD had a higher expected net benefit than either prophylaxis strategy, and the evidence was sufficient for its adoption. For threshold values > $400,000 prophylaxis strategies had higher expected net benefit; however, a new trial with 38 patients per arm was needed to compare AP and TP, yielding an expected net gain of over $17 million. In sensitivity analyses, the results were robust to assumptions regarding discount rate, trial fixed and variable costs, enrollment fraction, and the time horizon.

CONCLUSIONS

In rare diseases, evidence is often scarce and insufficient for decision making. In considering the funding of new research and patient reimbursement in rare diseases, VOI methodology may provide more relevant determinations of the value and costs of additional research, compared to standard frequentist methods.

Impact of emergency department probiotic treatment of pediatric gastroenteritis: study protocol for the PROGUT (Probiotic Regimen for Outpatient Gastroenteritis Utility of Treatment) randomized controlled trial

Background

The burden of acute gastroenteritis on children and their families continues to be enormous. Probiotics, defined as viable microbial preparations that have a beneficial effect on the health of the host, represent a rapidly expanding field. Although clinical trials in children with gastroenteritis have been performed, most have significant flaws, and guidelines do not consistently endorse their use.

Methods/Design

PROGUT is a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, five-center, Canadian, emergency department trial. Children aged 3 months to 48 months who present between November 2013 and June 2017 with <72 hours of gastroenteritis symptoms will be assessed for eligibility. A total of 886 children will be randomized (1:1 allocation via an internet based, third party, randomization service) to receive 5 days of a combination probiotic agent (Lactobacillus rhamnosus and L. helveticus) or placebo. All participants, caregivers, and outcome assessors will be blinded to group assignment. The study includes three key outcomes: 1) clinical - the development of moderate to severe disease following an emergency department (ED) evaluation that employs a validated clinical score (Modified Vesikari Scale); 2) safety - side effect; and 3) mechanism - fecal secretory immunoglobulin A levels.

Discussion

Definitive data are lacking to guide the clinical use of probiotics in children with acute gastroenteritis. Hence, probiotics are rarely prescribed by North American physicians. However, the following current trends obligate an urgent assessment: 1) probiotics are sold as food supplements, and manufacturers can encourage their use while their relevance has yet to be established; 2) North American and European government agencies remain concerned about their value and safety; 3) some institutions are now recommending the routine use of probiotics; and 4) parents of affected children are often providing probiotics. With probiotic consumption increasing in the absence of solid evidence, there is a need to conduct this definitive trial to overcome the limitations of prior work in this field.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01853124; first registered 9 May 2013.

Maternal and infant predictors of attendance at Neonatal Follow-Up programmes

BACKGROUND

Neonatal Follow-Up (NFU) programmes provide health services for families of infants at high risk of developmental problems following difficult or extremely premature birth: yet, up to 30% of families do not attend these programmes with their infants.

METHODS

The study objective was to determine maternal and infant factors that predicted attendance at NFU programmes. Utilizing Andersen's Behavioural Model of Health Services Use, a prospective two-phase multi-site descriptive cohort study was conducted in three Canadian Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICU) that refer to two affiliated NFU programmes. In Phase 1, 357 mothers completed standardized questionnaires that addressed maternal and infant factors, prior to their infants' NICU discharge. In Phase 2, attendance at NFU was followed at three time points over a 12-month period. Factors of interest included predisposing factors (e.g. demographic characteristics and social context); enabling factors (e.g. social support, travel distance, and income); and infant illness severity (i.e. needs factors). Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for each independent factor.

RESULTS

Mothers parenting alone, experiencing higher levels of worry about maternal alcohol or drug use, or at greater distances from NFU were less likely to attend. Mothers experiencing higher maternal stress at the time of the infant's NICU hospitalization were more likely to attend NFU. No infant factors were predictive of NFU attendance.

CONCLUSIONS

Mothers at risk of not attending NFU programmes with their infants require better identification, triage, referral and additional support to promote engagement with NFU programmes and improved quality of life for their high-risk infants.

Underestimation of uncertainties in health utilities derived from mapping algorithms involving health-related quality-of-life measures: statistical explanations and potential remedies

OBJECTIVES

Mapping algorithms are being developed in increasing numbers to derive health utilities (HUs) from health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) data. However, the variances of the mapping-derived HUs are observed to be smaller than those of the actual HUs.

METHODS

Two reasons are proposed: 1) the presence of important unmeasured predictors leading to a high degree of unexplained variance and 2) ignoring that the regression coefficients are random variables themselves. We derive 3 variance estimators of HUs to account for these causes: 1) R (2)-adjusted estimator, 2) parametric estimator, and 3) nonparametric estimator. We tested these estimators using a simulated dataset and a real dataset involving the EQ-5D-3L and University of Washington Quality of Life questionnaire for patients with head and neck cancers.

RESULTS

The R (2)-adjusted estimator can be used in ordinary least squares (OLS)-based mapping algorithms and requires only the R (2) from the derivation study. The parametric estimator can be used in OLS-based mapping algorithms and requires the mean square error (MSE) and design matrix from the derivation study. The nonparametric estimator can be used in any mapping algorithm and requires leave-one-out cross-validation MSE from the derivation study. In the simulated dataset, all 3 estimators are within 1% of the variance of the actual HUs. In the real dataset, the unadjusted variance was 45% less than the actual variance, while all 3 estimators are within 10% of the actual variance.

CONCLUSIONS

When conducting cost-utility analyses (CUA) based on mapping algorithms, the variances of derived HUs should be properly adjusted using one of the proposed methods so that the results of the CUAs will correctly characterize uncertainty.

Value of information methods for assessing a new diagnostic test

Value-of-information methods are applied to assess the evidence in support of a new diagnostic test and, where the evidence is insufficient for decision making, to determine the optimal sample size for future studies. Net benefit formulations are derived under various diagnostic and treatment scenarios. The expressions for the expected opportunity loss of adopting strategies that include the new test are given. Expressions for the expected value of information from future studies are derived. One-sample and two-sample designs, with or without known prevalence, are considered. An example is given.

Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm birth study: outcomes in children at 5 years of age (MACS-5)

IMPORTANCE

A single course of antenatal corticosteroid therapy is recommended for pregnant women at risk of preterm birth between 24 and 33 weeks' gestational age. However, 50% of women remain pregnant 7 to 14 days later, leading to the question of whether additional courses should be given to women remaining at risk for preterm birth. The Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study (MACS) was an international randomized clinical trial that compared multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids with a single course in women at risk of preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effects of single vs multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroid therapy on death or neurodevelopmental disability (neuromotor, neurosensory, or neurocognitive/neurobehavioral function) at 5 years of age in children whose mothers participated in MACS. Our secondary aims were to determine the effect on height, weight, head circumference, blood pressure, intelligence, and specific cognitive (visual, spatial, and language) skills.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cohort follow-up study of children seen between June 2006 and May 2012 at 55 centers. In total, 1724 women (2141 children) were eligible for the study, of whom 1728 children (80.7% of the 2141 eligible children) participated and 1719 children contributed to the primary outcome.

INTERVENTION

Single and multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroid therapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was death or survival with a neurodevelopmental disability in 1 of the following domains: neuromotor (nonambulatory cerebral palsy), neurosensory (blindness, deafness, or need for visual/hearing aids), or neurocognitive/neurobehavioral function (abnormal attention, memory, or behavior).

RESULTS

There was no significant difference between the groups in the risk of death or neurodevelopmental disability: 217 of 871 children (24.9%) in the multiple-courses group vs 210 of 848 children (24.8%) in the single-course group (odds ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.81 to 1.29]; P = .84).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Multiple courses, compared with a single course, of antenatal corticosteroid therapy did not increase or decrease the risk of death or disability at 5 years of age. Because of a lack of strong conclusive evidence of short-term or long-term benefits, it remains our opinion that multiple courses not be recommended in women with ongoing risk of preterm birth.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00187382.

A randomized trial of planned cesarean or vaginal delivery for twin pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Twin birth is associated with a higher risk of adverse perinatal outcomes than singleton birth. It is unclear whether planned cesarean section results in a lower risk of adverse outcomes than planned vaginal delivery in twin pregnancy.

METHODS

We randomly assigned women between 32 weeks 0 days and 38 weeks 6 days of gestation with twin pregnancy and with the first twin in the cephalic presentation to planned cesarean section or planned vaginal delivery with cesarean only if indicated. Elective delivery was planned between 37 weeks 5 days and 38 weeks 6 days of gestation. The primary outcome was a composite of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity, with the fetus or infant as the unit of analysis for the statistical comparison.

RESULTS

A total of 1398 women (2795 fetuses) were randomly assigned to planned cesarean delivery and 1406 women (2812 fetuses) to planned vaginal delivery. The rate of cesarean delivery was 90.7% in the planned-cesarean-delivery group and 43.8% in the planned-vaginal-delivery group. Women in the planned-cesarean-delivery group delivered earlier than did those in the planned-vaginal-delivery group (mean number of days from randomization to delivery, 12.4 vs. 13.3; P=0.04). There was no significant difference in the composite primary outcome between the planned-cesarean-delivery group and the planned-vaginal-delivery group (2.2% and 1.9%, respectively; odds ratio with planned cesarean delivery, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 1.74; P=0.49).

CONCLUSIONS

In twin pregnancy between 32 weeks 0 days and 38 weeks 6 days of gestation, with the first twin in the cephalic presentation, planned cesarean delivery did not significantly decrease or increase the risk of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity, as compared with planned vaginal delivery. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00187369; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN74420086.).

The impact of pedestrian countdown signals on pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions: a reanalysis of data from a quasi-experimental study

OBJECTIVE

To perform a more sophisticated analysis of previously published data that advances the understanding of the efficacy of pedestrian countdown signal (PCS) installation on pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions (PMVCs), in the city of Toronto, Canada.

METHODS

This is an updated analysis of the same dataset from Camden et al. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effect of PCS on PMVC. A Poisson regression analysis, using a one-group comparison of PMVC, pre-PCS installation to post-PCS installation was used, controlling for season and temporal effects. The outcome was the frequency of reported PMVC (January 2000-December 2009). Similar models were used to analyse specific types of collisions defined by age of pedestrian, injury severity, and pedestrian and vehicle action. Incidence rate ratios with 95% CI are presented.

RESULTS

This analysis included 9262 PMVC, 2760 during or after PCS installation, at 1965 intersections. There was a 26% increase in the rate of collisions, pre to post-PCS installation (incidence rate ratio=1.26, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.42).

CONCLUSIONS

The installation of PCS at 1965 signalised intersections in the city of Toronto resulted in an increase in PMVC rates post-PCS installation. PCSs may have an unintended consequence of increasing pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions in some settings.