709 IMPACT ON HEALTHCARE UTILISATION OF A GENERAL PRACTITIONER-LED MODEL OF CARE FOR PATIENTS WITH FRAILTY

Introduction

Primary care has a significant role to play in the identification and management of frailty. MidMed is a new dedicated GP-led service developed by a large practice in Midlothian for patients living at home with moderate or severe frailty. MidMed comprises a full-time GP performing a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) adapted for primary care. Patients receive direct access to all appointments with the named GP. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of MidMed on healthcare utilisation in this patient group.

Methods

Patients with moderate or severe frailty at the MidMed practice were identified by the electronic Frailty Index (>0.24). After 16 months, patients who had been accepted into MidMed (MidMed group) were compared with those yet to be enrolled and who continued to receive usual care (non-MidMed group). Routinely collected data were used to identify outcomes including unscheduled hospital admissions, primary care consultations, continuity of care, outpatient attendances and mortality. Adjusted rate ratios were estimated using regression models.

Results

510 patients with moderate or severe frailty were identified (290 in MidMed, 220 in non-MidMed). Patients in each group were just as likely to have at least one hospital admission per year but those in MidMed had a reduced risk of further hospital admission compared to the non-MidMed group (adjusted RR 0.46 [95%CI 0.30–0.71]). MidMed was also associated with statistically significant higher usage of primary care (adjusted RR 1.52, [95%CI, 1.30–1.75]) and better continuity of care. There was no difference in mortality or the number of outpatient appointments when adjusted for co-variates.

Conclusion

A GP-led service for frailty is associated with lower risk of hospital readmission and improved continuity of care. Further studies are now required to better understand why use of such primary care services increase and whether this changes over time.

795 A POSITIVE 4AT DELIRIUM ASSESSMENT TOOL SCORE ON HOSPITAL ADMISSION IS LINKED TO MORTALITY, LENGTH OF STAY AND ‘HOME TIME’: A STUDY OF 82,770 HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN EDINBURGH AND SALFORD

Introduction

Delirium is linked with poor outcomes but studies using large-scale routine data are scarce. The 4AT (www.the4AT.com) is a brief (~2 minutes), well-validated tool for detection of delirium and cognitive impairment. We performed a two-centre study (Edinburgh and Salford) of Electronic Health Record (EHR) 4AT scores and outcomes in 82,770 non-elective hospital admissions in patients aged ≥65. We determined relationships between 4AT scores 0 (no impairment), 1–3 (cognitive impairment but no delirium) and ≥ 4 (delirium), in relation to 30-day inpatient mortality, length of stay, and time at home (‘home time’) in the year following index admission.

Methods

We analysed EHR 4AT scores recorded within 24 hours of admission, and outcomes data were also derived from the EHR. The study period was between April 2016 (Edinburgh)/September 2017 (Salford) and April 2020 (both centres).

Results

4AT scores suggestive of delirium (≥4) were present in 25% in Salford, and 18% in Edinburgh. After adjustment for age and sex, 30-day inpatient mortality with 4AT ≥4 was 5.5-fold greater than the 4AT 0 group in Edinburgh (aOR 5.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.99–6.13) and 3.4-fold greater in Salford (aOR 3.39, 95% CI 2.98–3.87). Length of stay was more than double in patients with any abnormal 4AT score compared to a 4AT score of 0. The median ‘home time’ at 1 year was reduced by 112 days (Edinburgh) and 61 days (Salford) in the 4AT ≥4 compared to 4AT 0 days.

Conclusions

This large study using routine clinical data confirms the relationships between delirium and poor outcomes previously reported in smaller research studies. Further, the results demonstrate the feasibility and value of using a brief clinical tool to identify delirium as a strong marker of adverse outcomes, and will be helpful in guiding policy development around patient safety including better treatment of delirium.

Antimicrobial effectiveness of Nano Silver Fluoride Varnish in reducing Streptococcus mutans in saliva and plaque biofilm when compared with Chlorhexidine and Sodium Fluoride Varnishes

Background

This in vivo study was done to investigate the antimicrobial effectiveness of Nano Silver fluoride, Sodium fluoride and Chlorhexidine when used as a varnish on Streptococcus mutans (S.mutans) in saliva and plaque biofilm.

Material and Methods

120 caries free subjects, aged 8-10 years were randomly assigned to four different groups (n=30) - group I: Control, group II: Chlorhexidine varnish (CHX), group III: Sodium fluoride varnish (NaF), group IV: Nano Silver fluoride varnish (NSF). Varnish application was done once at baseline. Saliva and plaque samples were collected at baseline (T0), at the end of 1 month (T1) and 3 months (T3) to evaluate S.mutans levels by culture method, optical density and PCR. OHI-S Index was also recorded for clinical evaluation.

Results

NSF, CHX and NaF were effective against S.mutans activity. The intragroup comparision of CFU/ml and OD/ml count showed a highly significant reduction from baseline to 3 months for all the 3 varnish groups (p=0.001). PCR result revealed that maximum reduction was seen in NSF and CHX followed by NaF group.

Conclusions

NSF reduces S.mutans level in both saliva and plaque biofilm and it is more advantageous than CHX and NaF as it has dual properties of acting as an antibacterial as well as a remineralizing agent.

Key words:Chlorhexidine, Nano Silver fluoride, Sodium fluoride, S. mutans, varnish.

The impact of age on the diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin

Background

Cardiac troponin concentrations are influenced by age and comorbidities with values above the 99th centile diagnostic threshold more common in older patients without myocardial infarction. Despite this, rule-in thresholds for myocardial infarction are applied universally regardless of age or comorbidities.

Purpose

We sought to evaluate how age and cardiovascular comorbidities influence the diagnostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I for myocardial infarction.

Methods

In a secondary analysis of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial, we identified 45,991 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The diagnostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measured at presentation for type 1 myocardial infarction was evaluated for the sex-specific 99th centile and thresholds three and five times this value in patients stratified by age (under 50 years, between 50 and 75 years, and over 75 years). The effect of comorbidities on diagnostic accuracy was evaluated using regression modelling.

Results

Of the 45,991 patients, 8,187 (18%) had myocardial injury of which 7,677 (94%) had a presentation troponin above the sex-specific 99th centile. Mean age of those with myocardial injury was 74 years (range 18–108). The positive predictive value (PPV) of the 99th centile was 54.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 50.6–58.8%), 58.8% (56.9–60.6%) and 36.6% (35.1–38.2%) in patients under 50 years, between 50 and 75 years, and over 75 years, respectively. Rule-in thresholds three and five-times the 99th centile gave a higher PPV in all age groups with a PPV of 45.5% (43.1–47.8%) and 50.4% (47.6–53.2%), respectively in those aged over 75 years (Table 1). Regardless of threshold, specificity and PPV was lowest in patients over 75 years and decreased with advancing age (Figure 1). Across all age groups, the presence of heart failure resulted in the greatest decrease in PPV (36.9% [34.6–39.2%] versus 50.6% [49.3–51.8%]). Adjusting for cardiovascular comorbidities resulted in modest change in the discrimination of cardiac troponin for myocardial infarction (area under curve 0.89 vs 0.90) and did not prevent a decline in diagnostic accuracy in older patients.

Conclusion

The specificity and PPV of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I for myocardial infarction decreases with advancing age. Cardiovascular comorbidities impact the PPV of troponin, but do not explain the decline in diagnostic accuracy with age. Clinicians should be aware of these important differences in performance by age of the diagnostic and rule-in thresholds for myocardial infarction when interpreting troponin results in older patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): University of Edinburgh Figure 1

Trajectories of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I in the two decades before cardiovascular death in Whitehall II

Background

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin may be a promising biomarker that could be used for personalised cardiovascular risk prediction and monitoring in the general population. Temporal changes in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin before cardiovascular death are largely unexplored.

Purpose

Using the longitudinal Whitehall II cohort, we evaluated whether three serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements over 15 years improved prediction of cardiovascular death when compared to a single time point at baseline.

Methods

Whitehall II is an ongoing longitudinal observation cohort study of 10,308 civil servants, and we included participants who had at least one cardiac troponin measurement and outcome data available. We constructed time trajectories to evaluate the temporal pattern of cardiac troponin I in those who died from cardiovascular disease as compared to those who did not. Cox regression and joint models were used to investigate the association of cardiac troponin I in relation to cardiovascular death using single time point (at baseline) and repeated measurements (at baseline, 10 and 15 years), respectively. The discriminative ability was assessed by the concordance index.

Results

In total, we included 7,293 individuals (mean age of 58 years [SD 7] at baseline, 29.4% women). Of these, 5,818 (79.8%) and 4,045 (55.5%) individuals had a second and third cardiac troponin I concentration measured, respectively. Cardiovascular death occurred in 281 (3.9%) individuals during a median follow-up of 21.4 [IQR, 15.8 to 21.8] years. In the 21-year trajectories of cardiac troponin I, we observed higher baseline concentrations in those who died due to cardiovascular disease as compared to those who did not (median 5 [IQR, 2 to 9] ng/L versus 3 [IQR, 2 to 5] ng/L respectively, Figure). Cardiac troponin I was an independent predictor of cardiovascular death, and the hazard ratio (HR) derived from the joint model that included serial cardiac troponin measurements was higher than the HR derived from the single time point model (single time point model: adjusted HR 1.53, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.37 to 1.70 per naturally log transformed unit of cardiac troponin I, versus repeated measurements model: adjusted HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.02). The discriminative ability of the cardiac troponin model improved when using repeated measurements (concordance index of unadjusted cardiac troponin models, single time point: 0.668 versus repeated measurements: 0.724).

Conclusions

Our study shows that cardiac troponin I trajectories were persistently higher among individuals who died from cardiovascular disease. Cardiac troponin I is a strong independent predictor of cardiovascular death, and incorporating repeated measurements of cardiac troponin improves cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Cardiac troponin I measurements and analysis were supported by were supported by Siemens Healthineers. The study was supported by Health Data Research UK which receives its funding from HDR UK Ltd (HDR-5012) funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation and the Wellcome Trust. NLM is supported by the British Heart Foundation through a Senior Clinical Research Fellowship (FS/16/14/32023), Programme Grant (RG/20/10/34966) and a Research Excellence Award (RE/18/5/34216). The funders had no role in the study and the decision to submit this work to be considered for publication.

Mechanisms of myocardial injury and clinical outcomes in patients hospitalised with suspected COVID-19

Background

Myocardial injury is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. However, the prognostic role of myocardial injury in COVID-19 compared to other acute illnesses and the underlying mechanisms of injury are poorly understood.

Methods

In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, all consecutive patients with suspected COVID-19 underwent cardiac troponin (ARCHITECTSTAT high-sensitive troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay; Abbott Laboratories) testing in plasma that was surplus to clinical requirements. The results were not reported unless required by the attending clinician. We evaluated the prevalence of myocardial injury, mechanisms and outcomes in all patients. In those with any hs-cTnI concentration above the sex-specific 99th centile the diagnosis was adjudicated according to the 4th Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction. The primary outcome of all-cause mortality was compared in those with and without myocardial injury and COVID-19 by cox regression adjusted for age, sex, renal function and co-morbidities.

Results

A total of 2,916 (median age 69 [interquartile range, IQR 54–79] years, 53% women) consecutive patients with suspected COVID-19 were followed up for 228 [IQR 203–249] days. Myocardial injury occurred in 26% (750/2,916) with a median troponin concentration of 66 [35–178] ng/L; the prevalence was 41% (46/112) and 25% (704/2,804) in those with and without COVID-19, respectively. The most common mechanism was acute non-ischaemic myocardial injury occurring in 80% (37/46) and 71% (502/704) of patients with and without COVID-19, respectively. Type 1 myocardial infarction (2% and 4%), type 2 myocardial infarction (7% and 14%) and chronic myocardial injury (11% and 11%) were less common and only one patient had confirmed myocarditis. In patients with myocardial injury mortality was increased compared to those without (P<0.001 log rank), whether they had COVID-19 (54% [25/46] versus 26% [17/66]) or not (35% [248/704] versus 14% [294/2100]). Myocardial injury was an independent predictor of death in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71 to 2.43), but this excess risk was not higher in patients with COVID-19 (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 0.75 to 3.15) compared to those without the condition (aHR 2.01, 95% CI 1.81 to 2.49).

Conclusion

Myocardial injury is common in hospitalised patients with suspected COVID-19 whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of their presentation. The majority of patients had acute non-ischaemic myocardial injury rather than a defined cardiac condition. Despite this the presence of myocardial injury was an independent predictor of death in all hospitalised patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation Kaplan-Meier curve for all-cause death

Snapshots quiz

A 25-year old gentleman, treated one year previously for a signet ring mid rectal adenocarcinoma, presented with facial swelling and multiple nodular swellings on the neck and back. What is the diagnosis?

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic marker for non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma - does it add to what we already know?

AIM

To study the correlation of pre-operative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with pathological stage, Fuhrman grade, sarcomatoid differentiation, tumor necrosis and lymph node positivity and its prognostic role in non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (non-mRCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retro-prospective, observational study was done at a tertiary care center in Mumbai, India. All patients with non-mRCC from July 2015 to April 2018 were included. Patients with co-existing systemic infection, prior immunotherapy, and long-term steroids were excluded. NLR closest to surgery, but within one month prior to surgery was used. Patients were stratified as NLR ≥ 3.0 or < 3. NLR was correlated with known prognostic factors by Pearson's correlation.

RESULTS

113 patients, aged 18-81 years (83 males and 30 females) were included. 75% had clear cell RCC. 62% had stage 1 disease. 58% patients had Fuhrman Grade 2. 10 patients had lymph node metastasis, 6 had sarcomatoid differentiation, 40 had tumor necrosis. The NLR was < 3 in 72 patients. Statistically significant correlation between NLR and tumor stage (p = 0.0054) as well as NLR and tumor necrosis (p = 0.0128) was shown.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR correlates significantly with higher T stage and tumor necrosis. NLR may be integrated with well-established prognostic markers to improve the accuracy of prognostic scores.

Optimization based ECG watermarking in RDWT-SVD domain

With the increase in point of care services, communication of digital patient records through open network has multi-folded. This digital data is used to obtain the remote medical assistance from the smart healthcare centres. Protecting this data during transmission is a very big challenge. One of the most important medical data is electrocardiogram (ECG) signal which detects the cardiovascular diseases and any alteration in the signal may affect the diagnosis. In this work, an ECG watermarking based on redundant discrete wavelet transform (RDWT) and singular value decomposition (SVD) is developed. First, the ECG signal is converted into 2-D matrix using pan-tompkins algorithm. Then, we use the hybrid of RDWT and SVD to conceal the patient data and logo image into the 2-D ECG image. We also use hybrid of optimization scheme to improve the robustness of the watermark. Preliminary experimental results indicate the optimal invisibility and robustness result is more effective up to 97.89% than the traditional schemes respectively, which makes it suitable for ownership authentication of ECG signal.

Juvenile Generalized Myasthenia Gravis: Presented as Unilateral Blepharoptosis and Successfully Managed with Pulse Intravenous Methylprednisolone

Myasthenia Gravis is a rare autoimmune disorder of childhood and this is rarer in South Asia. We present a pre-pubertal 7 year old female child of seropositive Generalized Juvenile Myasthenia Gravis. She presented with unilateral blepharoptosis and later generalized symptoms appeared. Ice-pack test, Neostigmine challenge test and acetylcholine receptor antibody test were positive. Serum muscle specific tyrosine kinase antibody test was normal. She did not have thymic abnormalities. She did not respond to high dose (26 mg/kg/day) of Pyridostigmine and oral Prednisolone (2 mg/kg/day), but was successfully treated with a combination of pulse intravenous Methylprednisolone (30 mg/kg once a month for 6 months) and daily doses of oral Prednisolone (2 mg/kg/day) along with Pyridostigmine without significant side effects. This combination can be considered a potential inexpensive treatment for Juvenile Myasthenia Gravis in a resource limited area where other immunosuppressive treatments such as intravenous immunoglobulin is expensive and unaffordable.

Phase 2 study of anastrozole in patients with estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor positive recurrent low-grade endometrial stromal sarcomas: The PARAGON trial (ANZGOG 0903)

BACKGROUND

Aromatase inhibitors are standard of care for low-grade endometrial stromal sarcomas (LGESS), based on very high response rates reported in retrospective studies. We evaluated the activity of anastrozole in recurrent/metastatic LGESS patients enrolled in PARAGON, a basket trial of anastrozole in estrogen receptor (ER±)/progesterone receptor (PR+) gynecological cancers.

METHOD

An investigator-initiated, single-arm, prospective open-label trial of anastrozole 1 mg/day in patients with ER ± PR + ve LGESS with measurable disease, treated until progressive disease or unacceptable toxicity. Primary endpoint was clinical benefit (complete/partial response + stable disease) rate (CBR) at 3 months. Secondary endpoints include progression-free survival (PFS), quality of life and toxicity.

RESULTS

15 eligible patients were enrolled. CBR at 3 months was 73% (95% CI: 48-89.1%); unchanged at 6 months. Best response was 26.7%, including complete response in one (6.7%; 95% CI 1.2-29.8%), partial response in three (20%, 95% CI 7.1-45.2%) and stable disease in seven (46.7%). Four patients ceased treatment by 3 months due to progression. Median PFS was not reached (25th percentile: 2.9 months (95% CI: 1.2-NR)). PFS was 73.3%, 73.3% and 66% at 6, 12, and 18 months, respectively. Six patients remained on treatment for an average of 44.2 months (range 34.5-63.6) up until data cut. Toxicity was as expected, with 3 patients stopping due to adverse effects.

CONCLUSION

The 26.7% objective response rate with anastrozole is lower than reported in retrospective series, but the CBR was high and durable. The results underscore the importance of prospective trials in rare cancers.

33 Diagnostic Test Accuracy of the 4AT for Delirium Detection: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Detection of delirium in hospitalised older adults is recommended in national and international guidelines. The 4 ‘A’s Test (4AT; www.the4AT.com) is a short (&lt;2 min) instrument for delirium detection that is used internationally as a standard tool in clinical practice. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy of the 4AT for delirium detection.

Methods

We searched the following electronic databases through Ovid: MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO. Additional databases were searched: CINAHL (EBSCOhost), clinicaltrials.gov and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from 2011 (4AT publication) until 21 December 2019. Inclusion criteria: older adults (≥65) across any setting of care except critical care; validation study of the 4AT against a delirium reference standard (standard diagnostic criteria or validated tool). Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and papers and performed the data extraction. Pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity were generated from a bivariate random effects model.

Results

17 studies (n = 3,701 observations) were included. Various settings including acute medicine, surgery, stroke wards and the emergency department were represented. The overall prevalence of delirium was 24.2% (95% CI 17.8–32.1%; range 10.5–61.9%). The pooled sensitivity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) and the pooled specificity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–0.92). The methodological quality of studies was mostly good.

Conclusions

The 4AT is now supported by a substantial evidence base comparable to other well-studied tools such as the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM). The strong pooled sensitivity and specificity findings for the 4AT in this meta-analysis along with its brevity and lack of need for specific training provide support for its use as an effective assessment tool for delirium.

29 Predicting Unplanned Readmission and Death After Hospital Discharge: How Do Frailty Tools Compare to Electronic Health Record Frailty Markers?

Introduction

Numerous frailty tools and definitions have been described. Amongst hospitalised patients, the validity of face-to-face instruments may be confounded by acute illness. However, patient assessment after recovery at the point of hospital discharge, or recognition of electronic health record (EHR) frailty markers, may overcome this issuep.

Methods

In a consented, prospective observational cohort study, we recruited patients ≥70 years old within 24 hours of expected discharge from the cardiology ward of the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh. Three established frailty instruments were tested: the Fried phenotype, Short Physical Performance Battery and nurse-administered Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). An unweighted 32-item EHR score was generated using frailty markers (e.g. falls risk, continence, cognition) recorded within mandated admission documentation. Comorbidity was assessed by count of chronic health conditions. Outcomes were a 90-day composite of unplanned readmission or death and 12-month mortality. Adjusted Cox modelling determined the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation increase in each frailty score.

Results

186 patients (mean age 79 ± 6 years, 64% male) were included, of whom 55 (30%) had a 90-day composite outcome, and 21 (11%) died within 12 months. All four frailty tools were moderately correlated with age and comorbidity (Pearson’s r 0.21 to 0.43, all p &lt; 0.05). The Fried phenotype (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.18–1.81), CFS (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.51) and EHR score (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03–1.55) independently predicted 90-day readmission or death, after adjustment for age, sex and comorbidity. All frailty instruments were independent predictors of 12-month mortality, with age, sex and comorbidity losing predictive power (p &gt; 0.05) once frailty was included in modelling.

Conclusions

At hospital discharge, the Fried phenotype and CFS added to age and comorbidity in risk prediction for future unplanned readmission or death. EHR frailty markers appeared comparable to face-to-face assessment. An automated trigger for high-risk patients using routine EHR data merits prospective evaluation.

Bio-signal data sharing security through watermarking: a technical survey

Due to smart healthcare systems highly connected information and communications technologies, sensitive medical information and records are easily transmitted over the networks. However, stealing of healthcare data is increasing crime every day to greatly impact on financial loss. In order to this, researchers are developing various cost-effective bio-signal based data hiding techniques for smart healthcare applications. In this paper, we first introduce various aspects of data hiding along with major properties, generic embedding and extraction process, and recent applications. This survey provides a comprehensive survey on data hiding techniques, and their new trends for solving new challenges in real-world applications. Then, we survey the various notable bio-signal based data hiding techniques. The summary of some notable techniques in terms of their objective, type of data hiding, methodology and database used, performance metrics, important features, and limitations are also presented in tabular form. At the end, we discuss the major issues and research directions to explore the promising areas for future research.

Probability of coronary disease and clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction

Background

Type 2 myocardial infarction is common in clinical practice. However, despite these patients having a similar rate of major adverse cardiovascular events as those with atherothrombotic type 1 myocardial infarction, there is currently no consensus on how these patients should be evaluated or managed. Whether risk assessment for coronary artery disease can identify patients at increased risk of death is unclear.

Methods

The High-STEACS trial was a stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial in ten hospitals across Scotland, including 48,282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. The index diagnosis was adjudicated in all patients and the likelihood of underlying coronary artery disease recorded as either low-probability, high-probability, or known based on the clinical history, risk factors and comorbidities. The adjudicators were blinded to the primary and secondary outcomes including all-cause mortality at one year.

Results

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were above the sex-specific 99th centile in 22% (10,360/48,282) of patients. The adjudicated diagnosis was type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction in 55% (4,981/9,115) and 12% (1,121/9,115), respectively. Compared to patients with type 1 myocardial infarction, those with type 2 myocardial infarction were older and more likely to be women. In patients with type 2 myocardial infarction, 20% were low-probability, 55% were high-probability and 25% had known coronary artery disease. All-cause mortality was highest in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (22.5% and 23.3%, respectively). Those with a low-probability of coronary artery disease had the lowest event rate (8.8%), even compared to those with type 1 myocardial infarction (Figure).

Discussion

A simple clinical assessment of whether patients have a low- or high-probability of coronary artery disease is associated with future risk of death in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Whether incorporating this assessment into clinical practice to guide secondary prevention could improve outcomes requires prospective evaluation.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

The mechanism of supply-demand imbalance and clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction

Background

Type 2 myocardial infarction is common and associated with substantial risk of adverse clinical outcomes, worse than type 1 myocardial infarction, with as few as 30% of patients still alive at five years. However, this broad diagnostic term encompasses multiple mechanisms of supply-demand imbalance, which may be associated with different risks of adverse outcomes.

Purpose

We aimed to assess the prevalence and clinical outcomes of different mechanisms of supply-demand imbalance related to survival in the High-STEACS (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome) randomised controlled trial.

Methods

The High-STEACS trial was a stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial in ten hospitals across Scotland, including 48,282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. The diagnosis was adjudicated according to the Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction. In patients with type 2 myocardial infarction, we prospectively adjudicated the cause for supply demand imbalance. Linkage of electronic healthcare records was used to track investigation, treatments and clinical outcomes. We used the Kaplan-Meier method, the log rank test and cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, renal function and co-morbidities to evaluate the risk of future all-cause mortality between categories.

Results

We identified 1,121 patients with type 2 myocardial infarction (age 74- ± 14, 55% female). At one year, death from any cause occurred in 23% (258/1,121) of patients. The most common reason for supply-demand imbalance was tachyarrhythmia in 55% (616/1,121), followed by hypoxaemia in 20% (219/1,121) of patients. Tachyarrhythmia was associated with reduced future risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.43–1.09), similar to those with type 1 myocardial infarction. Comparatively, patients with hypoxaemia appeared at highest risk (adjusted HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.09–2.80).

Conclusion

The mechanism of myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance is associated with future prognosis, and should be considered when risk stratifying patients with type 2 myocardial infarction.

Supply-demand imbalance survival

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Validation of a machine learned model to predict the diagnosis of myocardial infarction

Introduction

The myocardial-ischemic-injury-index (MI3) is a promising machine learned algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Whether this algorithm performs well in unselected patients or predicts recurrent events is unknown.

Methods

In an observational analysis from a multi-centre randomised trial, we included all patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Using gradient boosting, MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0–100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction, and estimates the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at one year was determined using previously defined low- and high-probability thresholds (1.6 and 49.7, respectively).

Results

In total 20,761 of 48,282 (43%) patients (64±16 years, 46% women) were eligible of whom 3,278 (15.8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 was well discriminated with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.949 (95% confidence interval 0.946–0.952) identifying 12,983 (62.5%) patients as low-probability (sensitivity 99.3% [99.0–99.6%], NPV 99.8% [99.8–99.9%]), and 2,961 (14.3%) as high-probability (specificity 95.0% [94.7–95.3%], PPV 70.4% [69–71.9%]). At one year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability compared to low-probability patients (17.6% [520/2,961] versus 1.5% [197/12,983], P&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

In unselected consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimates the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicts probability of subsequent adverse cardiovascular events.

Performance of MI3 at example thresholds

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council

Malaria case management and elimination readiness in health facilities of five districts of Madagascar in 2018

BACKGROUND

Madagascar's Malaria National Strategic Plan 2018-2022 calls for progressive malaria elimination beginning in low-incidence districts (< 1 case/1000 population). Optimizing access to prompt diagnosis and quality treatment and improving outbreak detection and response will be critical to success. A malaria elimination readiness assessment (MERA) was performed in health facilities (HFs) of selected districts targeted for malaria elimination.

METHODS

A mixed methods survey was performed in September 2018 in five districts of Madagascar. Randomly selected HFs were assessed for availability of malaria commodities and frequency of training and supervision conducted. Health providers (HPs) and community health volunteers (CHVs) were interviewed, and outpatient consultations at HFs were observed. To evaluate elimination readiness, a composite score ranging from 0 to 100 was designed from all study tools and addressed four domains: (1) resource availability, (2) case management (CM), (3) data management and use, and (4) training, supervision, and technical assistance; scores were calculated for each HF catchment area and district based on survey responses. Stakeholder interviews on malaria elimination planning were conducted at national, regional and district levels.

RESULTS

A quarter of the 35 HFs surveyed had no rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Of 129 patients with reported or recorded fever among 300 consultations observed, HPs tested 56 (43%) for malaria. Three-quarters of the 35 HF managers reviewed data for trends. Only 68% of 41 HPs reported receiving malaria-specific training. Of 34 CHVs surveyed, 24% reported that treating fever was no longer among their responsibilities. Among treating CHVs, 13 (50%) reported having RDTs, and 11 (42%) had anti-malarials available. The average district elimination readiness score was 52 out of 100, ranging from 48 to 57 across districts. Stakeholders identified several challenges to commodity management, malaria CM, and epidemic response related to lack of training and funding disruptions.

CONCLUSION

This evaluation highlighted gaps in malaria CM and elimination readiness in Madagascar to address during elimination planning. Strategies are needed that include training, commodity provision, supervision, and support for CHVs. The MERA can be repeated to assess progress in filling identified gaps and is a feasible tool that could be used to assess elimination targets in other countries.