Should health insurers target prevention of cardiovascular disease? A cost-effectiveness analysis of an individualised programme in Germany based on routine data

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death worldwide, making their prevention a major health care challenge. In 2006, a German statutory health insurance company presented a novel individualised prevention programme (KardioPro), which focused on coronary heart disease (CHD) screening, risk factor assessment, early detection and secondary prevention. This study evaluates KardioPro in CHD risk subgroups, and analyses the cost-effectiveness of different individualised prevention strategies.

METHODS

The CHD risk subgroups were assembled based on routine data from the statutory health insurance company, making use of a quasi-beta regression model for risk prediction. The control group was selected via propensity score matching based on logistic regression and an approximate nearest neighbour approach. The main outcome was cost-effectiveness. Effectiveness was measured as event-free time, and events were defined as myocardial infarction, stroke and death. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing participants with non-participants were calculated for each subgroup. To assess the uncertainty of results, a bootstrapping approach was applied.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness of KardioPro in the group at high risk of CHD was € 20,901 per event-free year; in the medium-risk group, € 52,323 per event-free year; in the low-risk group, € 186,074 per event-free year; and in the group with known CHD, € 26,456 per event-free year. KardioPro was associated with a significant health gain but also a significant cost increase. However, statistical significance could not be shown for all subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The cost-effectiveness of KardioPro differs substantially according to the group being targeted. Depending on the willingness-to-pay, it may be reasonable to only offer KardioPro to patients at high risk of further cardiovascular events. This high-risk group could be identified from routine statutory health insurance data. However, the long-term consequences of KardioPro still need to be evaluated.

The cost-utility of open prostatectomy compared with active surveillance in early localised prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

There is an on-going debate about whether to perform surgery on early stage localised prostate cancer and risk the common long term side effects such as urinary incontinence and erectile dysfunction. Alternatively these patients could be closely monitored and treated only in case of disease progression (active surveillance). The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-analytic model comparing the cost-utility of active surveillance (AS) and radical prostatectomy (PE) for a cohort of 65 year old men with newly diagnosed low risk prostate cancer.

METHODS

A Markov model comparing PE and AS over a lifetime horizon was programmed in TreeAge from a German societal perspective. Comparative disease specific mortality was obtained from the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group trial. Direct costs were identified via national treatment guidelines and expert interviews covering in-patient, out-patient, medication, aids and remedies as well as out of pocket payments. Utility values were used as factor weights for age specific quality of life values of the German population. Uncertainty was assessed deterministically and probabilistically.

RESULTS

With quality adjustment, AS was the dominant strategy compared with initial treatment. In the base case, it was associated with an additional 0.04 quality adjusted life years (7.60 QALYs vs. 7.56 QALYs) and a cost reduction of €6,883 per patient (2011 prices). Considering only life-years gained, PE was more effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €96,420/life year gained. Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of developing metastases under AS and utility weights under AS are a major sources of uncertainty. A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that AS was more likely to be cost-effective even under very high willingness to pay thresholds.

CONCLUSION

AS is likely to be a cost-saving treatment strategy for some patients with early stage localised prostate cancer. However, cost-effectiveness is dependent on patients' valuation of health states. Better predictability of tumour progression and modified reimbursement practice would support widespread use of AS in the context of the German health care system. More research is necessary in order to reliably quantify the health benefits compared with initial treatment and account for patient preferences.

A systematic review of the quality of economic models comparing thrombosis inhibitors in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

Thrombosis inhibitors can be used to treat acute coronary syndromes (ACS). However, there are various alternative treatment strategies, of which some have been compared using health economic decision models.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the quality of health economic decision models comparing thrombosis inhibitors in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, and to identify areas for quality improvement.

DATA SOURCES

The literature databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA).

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

A review of the quality of health economic decision models was conducted by two independent reviewers, using the Philips checklist.

RESULTS

Twenty-one relevant studies were identified. Differences were apparent regarding the model type (six decision trees, four Markov models, eight combinations, three undefined models), the model structure (types of events, Markov states) and the incorporation of data (efficacy, cost and utility data). Critical issues were the absence of particular events (e.g. thrombocytopenia, stroke) and questionable usage of utility values within some studies.

LIMITATIONS

As we restricted our search to health economic decision models comparing thrombosis inhibitors, interesting aspects related to the quality of studies of adjacent medical areas that compared stents or procedures could have been missed.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified areas where recommendations are indicated regarding the quality of future ACS decision models. For example, all critical events and relevant treatment options should be included. Models also need to allow for changing event probabilities to correctly reflect ACS and to incorporate appropriate, age-specific utility values and decrements when conducting cost-utility analyses.

Cost effectiveness of external hip protectors in the hospital setting: a modeling study

Chronic illnesses, for which many patients are admitted to hospitals, substantially increase the risk of falling, and hence the likelihood of incurring a hip fracture. Hip fractures not only have devastating consequences on an individual's quality of life but may also affect a hospital's reputation in the community. In addition, hospitals may face litigation claims and increased costs for patients who fall and suffer a major injury as a consequence. External hip protectors are comparable to padded undergarments and shield the trochanter, reducing the detrimental effects and force impacting the bone during a fall. Screening for patients at high risk of falling and providing high-risk patients with hip protectors as a preventive measure to avoid hip fractures, not only improves public health, but can also save hospitals care and litigation costs.

Accounting for increased non-target-disease-specific mortality in decision-analytic screening models for economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Positive screening results are often associated not only with target-disease-specific but also with non-target-disease-specific mortality. In general, this association is due to joint risk factors. Cost-effectiveness estimates based on decision-analytic models may be biased if this association is not reflected appropriately.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a procedure for quantifying the degree of bias when an increase in non-target-disease-specific mortality is not considered.

METHODS

We developed a family of parametric functions that generate hazard ratios (HRs) of non-target-disease-specific mortality between subjects screened positive and negative, with the HR of target-disease-specific mortality serving as the input variable. To demonstrate the efficacy of this procedure, we fitted a function within the context of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk screening, based on HRs related to different risk factors extracted from published studies. Estimates were embedded into a decision-analytic model, and the impact of 'modelling increased non-target-disease-specific mortality' was assessed.

RESULTS

In 55-year-old German men, based on a risk screening with 5% positively screened subjects, and a CAD risk ratio of 6 within the first year after screening, incremental quality-adjusted life-years were 19% higher and incremental costs were 8% lower if no adjustment was made. The effect varied depending on age, gender, the explanatory power of the screening test and other factors.

CONCLUSION

Some bias can occur when an increase in non-target-disease-specific mortality is not considered when modelling the outcomes of screening tests.

Effects of a nurse-based case management compared to usual care among aged patients with myocardial infarction: results from the randomized controlled KORINNA study

Background

Transition from hospital to home is a critical period for older persons with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Home-based secondary prevention programs led by nurses have been proposed to facilitate the patients’ adjustment to AMI after discharge. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of a nurse-based case management for elderly patients discharged after an AMI from a tertiary care hospital.

Methods

In a single-centre randomized two-armed parallel group trial of patients aged 65 years and older hospitalized with an AMI between September 2008 and May 2010 in the Hospital of Augsburg, Germany, patients were randomly assigned to a case management or a control group receiving usual care. The case-management intervention consisted of a nurse-based follow-up for one year including home visits and telephone calls. Key elements of the intervention were to detect problems or risks and to give advice regarding a wide range of aspects of disease management (e.g. nutrition, medication). Primary study endpoint was time to first unplanned readmission or death. Block randomization per telephone call to a biostatistical center, where the randomization list was kept, was performed. Persons who assessed one-year outcomes and validated readmission data were blinded. Statistical analysis was based on the intention-to-treat approach and included Cox Proportional Hazards models.

Results

Three hundred forty patients were allocated to receive case-management (n=168) or usual care (n=172). The analysis is based on 329 patients (intervention group: n=161; control group: n=168). Of these, 62% were men, mean age was 75.4 years, and 47.1% had at least either diabetes or chronic heart failure as a major comorbidity. The mean follow-up time for the intervention group was 273.6 days, and for the control group it was 320.6 days. During one year, in the intervention group there were 57 first unplanned readmissions and 5 deaths, while the control group had 75 first unplanned readmissions and 3 deaths. With respect to the endpoint there was no significant effect of the case management program after one year (Hazard Ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.72-1.41). This was also the case among subgroups according to sex, diabetes, living alone, and comorbidities.

Conclusions

A nurse-based management among elderly patients with AMI had no significant influence on the rate of first unplanned readmissions or death during a one-year follow-up. A possible long-term influence should be investigated by further studies.

Clinical trial registration

ISRCTN02893746

Link between process and appraisal in coverage decisions: an analysis with structural equation modeling

BACKGROUND

To achieve fair-coverage decision making, both material criteria and criteria of procedural justice have been proposed. The relationship between these is still unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze hypotheses underlying the assumption that more assessment, transparency, and participation have a positive impact on the reasonableness of coverage decisions.

METHODS

We developed a structural equation model in which the process components were considered latent constructs and operationalized by a set of observable indicators. The dependent variable "reasonableness" was defined by the relevance of clinical, economic, and other ethical criteria in technology appraisal (as opposed to appraisal based on stakeholder lobbying). We conducted an Internet survey among conference participants familiar with coverage decisions of third-party payers in industrialized countries between 2006 and 2011. Partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) was used, which allows analyzing small sample sizes without distributional assumptions. Data on 97 coverage decisions from 15 countries and 40 experts were used for model estimation.

RESULTS

Stakeholder participation (regression coefficient [RC] =0.289; P = 0.005) and scientific rigor of assessment (RC = 0.485; P < 0.001) had a significant influence on the construct of reasonableness. The path from transparency to reasonableness was not significant (RC = 0.289; P = 0.358). For the reasonableness construct, a considerable share of the variance was explained (R (2) = 0.44). Biases from missing data and nesting effects were assessed through sensitivity analyses. Limitations. The results are limited by a small sample size and the overrepresentation of some decision makers.

CONCLUSIONS

Rigorous assessment and intense stakeholder participation appeared effective in promoting reasonable decision making, whereas the influence of transparency was not significant. A sound evidence base seems most important as the degree of scientific rigor of assessment had the strongest effect.

Transparency vs. closed-door policy: do process characteristics have an impact on the outcomes of coverage decisions? A statistical analysis

The aim of this study was to analyze influences of process- and technology-related characteristics on the outcomes of coverage decisions. Using survey data on 77 decisions from 13 countries, we examined whether outcomes differ by 14 variables that describe components of decision-making processes and the technology. We analyzed the likelihood of committees covering a technology, i.e. positive (including partial coverage) vs. negative coverage decisions. We performed non-parametric univariate tests and binomial logistic regression with a stepwise variable selection procedure. We identified a negative association between a positive decision and whether the technology is a prescribed medicine (p=0.0097). Other significant influences on a positive decision outcome included one disease area (p=0.0311) and whether a technology was judged to be (cost-)effective (p<0.0001). The first estimation of the logistic regression yielded a quasi-complete separation for technologies that were clearly judged (cost-)effective. In uncertain decisions, a higher number of stakeholders involved in voting (odds ratio=2.52; p=0.03) increased the likelihood of a positive outcome. The results suggest that decisions followed the lines of evidence-based decision-making. Despite claims for transparent and participative decision-making, the phase of evidence generation seemed most critical as decision-makers usually adopted the assessment recommendations. We identified little impact of process configurations.

The association between health system development and the burden of cardiovascular disease: an analysis of WHO country profiles

Background

Several risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been identified in recent decades. However, the association between the health system and the burden of CVD has not yet been sufficiently researched. The objective of this study was to analyse the association between health system development and the burden of CVD, in particular CVD-related disability-adjusted life–years (DALYs).

Methods

Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed models were applied to country-level data collected by the World Bank and World Health Organization. Response variables were the age-standardized CVD mortality and age-standardized CVD DALY rates.

Results

The amount of available health system resources, indicated by total health expenditures per capita, physician density, nurse density, dentistry density, pharmaceutical density and the density of hospital beds, was associated with reduced CVD DALY rates and CVD mortality. However, in the multivariate models, the density of nurses and midwives was positively associated with CVD. High out-of-pocket costs were associated with increased CVD mortality in both univariate and multivariate analyses.

Conclusion

A highly developed health system with a low level of out-of-pocket costs seems to be the most appropriate to reduce the burden of CVD. Furthermore, an efficient balance between human health resources and health technologies is essential.

Breast cancer attributable costs in Germany: a top-down approach based on sickness funds data

Background

Breast cancer is the leading cause of death from cancer among women in Germany. Despite its clinical and economic relevance, no attributable costs for breast cancer have been reported for Germany so far. The objective of this study is to estimate age-specific breast cancer attributable health expenditures for Germany.

Methods

Sickness fund data from 1999 representing about 26 million insured (i.e. 32% of the total German population) have been analysed using generalized additive models and the error propagation law. Costs have been inflated to 2010.

Results

Breast cancer attributable costs decreased with age. Among breast cancer patients aged 30–45 years, about 90% of all health expenditures were due to breast cancer, whereas in breast cancer patients aged 80–90 years, about 50% were due to breast cancer. Breast cancer attributable costs amounted to about €9,000 annually for patients below 55 years of age and declined to about €3,000 in 90-year-old breast cancer patients.

Conclusion

This analysis provides estimates of attributable breast cancer costs in Germany. Compared with the international literature, the estimates were plausible but had a tendency to underestimate breast cancer attributable costs.

Limited economic evidence of carotid artery stenosis diagnosis and treatment: a systematic review

The objective of this article is to assess the availability and validity of economic evaluations of carotid artery stenosis (CS) diagnosis and treatment.

DESIGN

Systematic review of economic evaluations of the diagnosis and treatment of CS.

METHODS

Systematic review of full economic evaluations published in Medline and Google Scholar up until 28 February 2012. Based on economic checklists (Evers and Philips), the identified studies were classified as high, medium, or low quality.

RESULTS

Twenty-three evaluations were identified. The study quality ranged from 26% to 84% of all achievable points (Evers). Seven studies were of high, eight of medium and eight of low quality. No comparison was made between carotid angioplasty and stenting (CAS) and best medical treatment (BMT). For subjects with severe stenosis, comparisons of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and BMT were also missing. Three of five studies dealing with pre-operative imaging found that duplex Doppler ultrasound (US) was cost-effective compared with carotid angiogram (AG).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a huge lack of high-quality studies and of studies that confirm published results. Also, for a given study quality, the most cost-effective treatment strategy is still unknown in some cases ('CAS' vs. 'BMT', 'US combined with magnetic resonance angiography supplemented with AG' vs. 'US combined with computer tomography angiography').

A multi-perspective cost-effectiveness analysis comparing rivaroxaban with enoxaparin sodium for thromboprophylaxis after total hip and knee replacement in the German healthcare setting

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing major orthopaedic surgery (MOS), such as total hip (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR), are at high risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE). For thromboembolism prophylaxis, the oral anticoagulant rivaroxaban has recently been included in the German diagnosis related group (DRG) system. However, the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban is still unclear from both the German statutory health insurance (SHI) and the German hospital perspective.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban from the German statutory health insurance (SHI) perspective and to analyse financial incentives from the German hospital perspective.

METHODS

Based on data from the RECORD trials and German cost data, a decision tree was built. The model was run for two settings (THR and TKR) and two perspectives (SHI and hospital) per setting.

RESULTS

Prophylaxis with rivaroxaban reduces VTE events (0.02 events per person treated after TKR; 0.007 after THR) compared with enoxaparin. From the SHI perspective, prophylaxis with rivaroxaban after TKR is cost saving (€27.3 saving per patient treated). However, the cost-effectiveness after THR (€17.8 cost per person) remains unclear because of stochastic uncertainty. From the hospital perspective, for given DRGs, the hospital profit will decrease through the use of rivaroxaban by €20.6 (TKR) and €31.8 (THR) per case respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our findings, including rivaroxaban for reimbursement in the German DRG system seems reasonable. Yet, adequate incentives for German hospitals to use rivaroxaban are still lacking.

Validity, reliability and responsiveness of the EQ-5D in German stroke patients undergoing rehabilitation

PURPOSE

To analyse the psychometric properties of the EQ-5D in German stroke survivors undergoing neurological rehabilitation.

METHODS

The EQ-5D, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Stroke Impact Scale (SIS) were completed before (210 subjects) and after (183 subjects) a patient education programme in seven rehabilitation clinics in Bavaria, Germany. A postal follow-up was conducted after 6 months. Acceptance, validity, reliability and responsiveness of the EQ-5D were tested. The SIS subscales were used as external anchors to classify the patients into change groups between the measurements.

RESULTS

The proportion of missing answers ranged from 4.7 to 8.6%. Between 16 and 19% reported no problems in any EQ-5D dimension. At baseline, correlations between EQ-5D index and the SIS subscales ranged from 0.15 (communication) to 0.60 (mobility). Correlations with the EQ VAS were slightly smaller. All scores were reliable in test-retest with intraclass correlations ranging from 0.67 to 0.81. EQ-5D index and EQ VAS were consistently responsive only to improvements in health, showing small- to medium effect sizes (0.27-0.42).

CONCLUSIONS

The EQ-5D has shown reasonable validity, reliability and, more limited, responsiveness in stroke patients with mild to moderate limitations of functional status, allowing it to be used in clinical trials in rehabilitation.

C-reactive protein levels and post-ICU mortality in nonsurgical intensive care patients

BACKGROUND

There are no data on the association between acute inflammation during critical illness and long-term mortality in ICU patients.

METHODS

Nonsurgical patients with an ICU length of stay > 24 h surviving until ICU discharge were included into this prospective, observational, follow-up study. Demographics, chronic diseases, admission diagnosis, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, length of ICU stay, maximum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels during the ICU stay (CRPmax), and CRP levels at ICU discharge (CRPdis) were documented. After a follow-up time of 1.88 ± 1.16 years (range, 0.5-4 years), the survival status was determined.

RESULTS

Seven hundred sixty-five patients were enrolled into the study protocol. One hundred fifty-eight patients (20.7%) died within 0.62 ± 0.88 years after ICU discharge. Cumulative survival rates differed between patients grouped into the CRPmax and CRPdis quartiles. Patients in the first and second CRPmax quartiles had better cumulative survival rates than those in higher CRPmax quartiles (all P < .001). Patients in the first CRPdis quartile had better cumulative survival rates than those in higher CRPdis quartiles (all P < .001). Using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, both CRPmax and CRPdis were independently associated with post-ICU mortality (both P < .001). Furthermore, the number of chronic diseases (P < .001), age (P < .001), and the SAPS II (P = .03) were associated with post-ICU mortality in both Cox models.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP levels during critical illness seem independently associated with post-ICU survival in nonsurgical ICU patients. Future research focusing on the association between acute systemic inflammation and post-ICU outcome is warranted in order to improve long-term survival of critically ill patients.

Evaluation of multi-dose repackaging for individual patients in long-term care institutions: savings from the perspective of statutory health insurance in Germany

Aims and objectives

Elderly people often have difficulty adhering to multi-drug medication regimens. The current study aimed to evaluate whether multi-dose repackaging for individual patients reduces medication expenses from the perspective of statutory health insurance in Germany.

Setting

A total of 307 residents, mean age 76.8 years, median age 80 years, from four long-term care facilities were included in the prospective pre—post study conducted from September 2004 to December 2005. Minimum periods of 9 months prior to and 9 months following the introduction of multi-dose packaging were compared at the individual level with respect to the expenses for medications that were repackaged in weekly blister packs.

Method

The main outcome measure was savings in medication expenses. Statistical evaluation was carried out using the program Rversion 2.1.0. Adjustments were made for effects of age and con currently increasing morbidity in so far as number of prescriptions were held constant at the individual level.

Key findings

In the subset of 181 people included in this analysis, approximately 6.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1–7.0%; P &lt; 0.001) of expenses for medication were saved: 2.0% (1.6–2.3%; P &lt; 0.001) was due to price differences and 4.1% (3.2–5.0%; P &lt; 0.001) to reduced wastage of prescribed medication. The probability of being prescribed a generic compared with a brand-name medication was significantly lower prior to the introduction of repackaging (0.92, 0.89–0.94; P &lt; 0.01), although this did not have any effect on turnover of medications (0.996, 0.988–1.005; P &lt; 0.01).

Conclusion

Significant savings in medication expenses were found. Nonetheless, cost savings should not be the sole objective in reorganising drug dispensing.

[Prognostic value and clinical effectiveness of high sensitivity C-reactive protein as a marker in primary prevention of major cardiac events]

OBJECTIVE

To compare the predictive value and the clinical effectiveness of additional high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) screening as opposed to traditional risk factor screening alone as a strategy of primary prevention of coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

Following a comprehensive search of 26 electronic databases by DAHTA DIMDI, a systematic review was performed in accordance with international standards of evidence based medicine. Eight publications on risk prediction and one study addressing clinical decision-analytic modelling were included in the assessment.

RESULTS

The adjusted relative risk of a high hs-CRP level (> 3 mg/L) for myocardial infarction, cardiac related death, and cardiovascular events ranged from 0.7 to 2.47 (p < 0.05 in 4 of 7 studies). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased by 0.00 to 0.027 when hs-CRP was added to the prediction models (4 of 7 studies statistically significant with p < 0.05). Based on a published decision-analytic model examining hs-CRP screening, the gain in life expectancy due to statin therapy in individuals with elevated hs-CRP was similar when compared to patients with hyperlipidaemia. Nonetheless, evidence on many model parameters was limited.

CONCLUSION

Screening with hs-CRP in addition to traditional risk factors improves risk prediction. However, the incremental effect is moderate and the clinical relevance remains unclear.

Uncertainty assessment of input parameters for economic evaluation: Gauss's error propagation, an alternative to established methods

In decision modeling for health economic evaluation, bootstrapping and the Cholesky decomposition method are frequently used to assess parameter uncertainty and to support probabilistic sensitivity analysis. An alternative, Gauss's error propagation law, is rarely known but may be useful in some settings. Bootstrapping, the Cholesky decomposition method, and the error propagation law were compared regarding standard deviation estimates of a hypothetic parameter, which was derived from a regression model fitted to simulated data. Furthermore, to demonstrate its value, the error propagation law was applied to German administrative claims data. All 3 methods yielded almost identical estimates of the standard deviation of the target parameter. The error propagation law was much faster than the other 2 alternatives. Furthermore, it succeeded the claims data example, a case in which the established methods failed. In conclusion, the error propagation law is a useful extension of parameter uncertainty assessment.

The German Coronary Artery Disease Risk Screening Model: development, validation, and application of a decision-analytic model for coronary artery disease prevention with statins

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a major cause of death in industrial countries, leading to high health-related costs and decreased quality of life.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a decision-analytic model for CAD risk screening in Germany (German Coronary Artery Disease Screening Model).

DESIGN

Markov model.

TARGET POPULATION

Age- and gender-specific cohorts of the German population.

DATA SOURCES

Mortality rates posted by the German Federal Statistical Office, the German Health Survey, social health insurance institutions, the MONICA Augsburg study, and the literature.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

INTERVENTIONS

CAD risk screening for high-risk individuals using Framingham risk equation and use of statins as the primary preventive measure, compared with a setting without screening.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Life-years (LY) gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained.

RESULTS

The model-based CAD incidence corresponds well with empirical data from the MONICA Augsburg study. Health outcomes depend on the screening threshold (cutoff value of Framingham 10-year risk) and on the age and gender of the cohort screened (0.03 to 0.26 LYs and 0.06 to 0.42 QALYs gained per person screened in cohorts of 50- and 60-year-old men and women, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The model provides a valid tool for evaluating the long-term effectiveness of CAD risk screening in Germany. Using statins as a primary prevention intervention for CAD in high-risk individuals identified by screening could improve the long-term health of the German population.

Prognostic value, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of high sensitivity C-reactive protein as a marker in primary prevention of major cardiac events

Background

In a substantial portion of patients (= 25%) with coronary heart disease (CHD), a myocardial infarction or sudden cardiac death without prior symptoms is the first manifestation of disease. The use of new risk predictors for CHD such as the high-sensitivity C-reactive Protein (hs-CRP) in addition to established risk factors could improve prediction of CHD. As a consequence of the altered risk assessment, modified preventive actions could reduce the number of cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction.

Research question

Does the additional information gained through the measurement of hs-CRP in asymptomatic patients lead to a clinically relevant improvement in risk prediction as compared to risk prediction based on traditional risk factors and is this cost-effective?

Methods

A literature search of the electronic databases of the German Institute of Medical Documentation and Information (DIMDI) was conducted. Selection, data extraction, assessment of the study-quality and synthesis of information was conducted according to the methods of evidence-based medicine.

Results

Eight publications about predictive value, one publication on the clinical efficacy and three health-economic evaluations were included. In the seven study populations of the prediction studies, elevated CRP-levels were almost always associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events and non-fatal myocardial infarctions or cardiac death and severe cardiovascular events. The effect estimates (odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), hazard ratio (HR)), once adjusted for traditional risk factors, demonstrated a moderate, independent association between hs-CRP and cardiac and cardiovascular events that fell in the range of 0.7 to 2.47. In six of the seven studies, a moderate increase in the area under the curve (AUC) could be detected by adding hs-CRP as a predictor to regression models in addition to established risk factors though in three cases this was not statistically significant. The difference [in the AUC] between the models with and without hs-CRP fell between 0.00 and 0.023 with a median of 0.003. A decision-analytic modeling study reported a gain in life-expectancy for those using statin therapy for populations with elevated hs-CRP levels and normal lipid levels as compared to statin therapy for those with elevated lipid levels (approximately 6.6 months gain in life-expectancy for 58 year olds). Two decision-analytic models (three publications) on cost-effectiveness reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between Euro 8,700 and 50,000 per life year gained for the German context and between 52,000 and 708,000 for the US context. The empirical input data for the model is highly uncertain.

Conclusion

No sufficient evidence is available to support the notion that hs-CRP-values should be measured during the global risk assessment for CAD or cardiovascular disease in addition to the traditional risk factors. The additional measurement of the hs-CRP-level increases the incremental predictive value of the risk prediction. It has not yet been clarified whether this increase is clinically relevant resulting in reduction of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

For people with medium cardiovascular risk (5 to 20% in ten years) additional measurement of hs-CRP seems most likely to be clinical relevant to support the decision as to whether or not additional statin therapy should be initiated for primary prevention.

Statin therapy can reduce the occurrence of cardiovascular events for asymptomatic individuals with normal lipid and elevated hs-CRP levels. However, this is not enough to provide evidence for a clinical benefit of hs-CRP-screening. The cost-effectiveness of general hs-CRP-screening as well as screening among only those with normal lipid levels remains unknown at present.

Serum antibodies against Saccharomyces cerevisiae: a new prognostic indicator in metastatic renal-cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

A recent study reported that a diet rich in bread and refined cereals might have an unfavorable role in the development of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). To test whether an underlying intolerance of bread ingredients is responsible for the unfavorable influence of bread on RCC, we examined patient sera for the presence of food-specific IgG.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

A commercial test was used to detect food-specific IgG directed against a panel of 113 food antigens in sera of 54 patients with metastatic RCC. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used for univariate survival analysis, and differences in survival curves were assessed with the log-rank test. Multivariate survival analysis was done using a Cox regression model.

RESULTS

We found that RCC patients with elevated serum levels of IgG antibodies against S. cerevisiae, commonly known as baker's yeast and yet another bread component, have an unfavorable clinical course. Median survival of patients with high levels of S. cerevisiae IgG was only 17.8 months, whereas median survival of patients with low S. cerevisiae IgG was 43.8 months (P = 0.0022; log-rank). Multivariate survival analysis identified high levels of S. cerevisiae IgG as a strong and independent prognostic risk factor (risk ratio 4.6, P = 0.001; 95% CI 1.61-13.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that serum levels of IgG against S. cerevisiae may predict survival in patients with metastatic RCC. The data suggest not cereals but baker's yeast being the critical component of bread that may cause immune deviation and impaired immunosurveillance in predisposed RCC patients.

Sex differences in treatment patterns of six chronic diseases: an analysis from the German statutory health insurance

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to investigate gender-specific differences in prevalence, healthcare costs, and treatment patterns in the German Statutory Health Insurance (SHI).

METHODS

The study analyzed administrative claims data of over 26 million insured with respect to prevalence and cost of illness of six chronic diseases. Insured were identified using the ATC code for medication prescription and ICD-9 code for diagnosis. The influences of gender, age, and comorbidity on cost differences were analyzed via multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

Adjusted for age and comorbidity, gender had a significant influence on both hospital and medication spending. Hospital costs on average were 17.1% (95% CI 14.1; 20.2) higher for men compared with women. Medication spending for men exceeded that for women on average by 13.8% (95% CI 10.9; 16.7). The diagnoses with the highest prevalence were hypertension and heart failure. Women had a higher prevalence of diabetes, coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure, and hypertension. Medication costs were higher for men in three of five diagnoses and comparable for two diagnoses (diabetes and asthma). Women received more medication prescriptions than men, but on average prescriptions for men were 14%-26% more expensive than prescriptions for women. Regarding treatment patterns men were treated with different drug classes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with women. Total medication spending stratified by diagnosis was highest for diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Gender differences for costs and prescribing patterns for chronic diseases vary disease specifically, but generally men had higher inpatient costs and more expensive medication prescriptions, whereas women had higher numbers of prescriptions.